One of the most important things in best ball—especially in way too early best ball drafts—is to avoid zeros. 

I realize that sounds painfully obvious, but "playing it safe" can feel counterintuitive in large-field tournaments where the majority of the prize money goes to the Top 10 finishers and encourages a Ricky Bobby-like mentality.

But when reviewing the winning teams year after year, they rarely have zeros on their roster. Or to put it another way, all 18 of their players (or close to all of them) are contributing to their starting lineup at some point through the playoff gauntlet.

Some zeros are of course impossible to predict, like ones that come from injuries. But we can control for other types of zeros by avoiding players who don't have strong odds of playing all 17 games.

Late-Round QB Strategy for Best Ball

This is most prevalent at the QB position, where drafters only take two to three of them on a squad. Taking a zero from one of those, specifically in the fantasy playoffs (Week 14-17), is a near-death sentence for a best ball team. 

This creates a tricky dynamic in early Underdog drafts, which feature 20 rounds. Because of the deeper pool, most drafters are trying to secure three QBs for their roster. Of course, there are only 32 teams, which means not every drafter will be able to lock up three starting QBs.

In this piece, I want to go through all of the fringe QBs who are going after pick 140 in drafts and share how I think they should be handled in current drafts.

The missing variables right now are two-fold:

  1. Where will the top rookie QBs land (Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, and Jaxson Dart) and will they have a path to starting for the entire season
  2. Where will free agents like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson land?
  3. Who will be the starting QB for the Steelers, Browns, Titans, and Giants in 2025?

Fortunately, we have a decent amount of context clues for all these questions right now, which allows us to make more informed decisions in drafts.

Targets and Fades in Best Ball Drafts: Late-Round QBs

J.J. McCarthy (MIN) - 144.2 / DRAFTABLE

It's funny that McCarthy is even making this list as the presumed starter for the Vikings, but the team has yet to come out and announce him as the starter. The situation hangs in the balance, largely because Aaron Rodgers wants to come play there, but it's unclear whether the feeling is mutual. I think the Vikings would be absolute idiots to derail the progression of McCarthy with Rodgers, so I highly doubt this happens. I think McCarthy is a solid target as a QB3 in drafts right now, but I wouldn't fault anyone who held out until there is more clarity.

Anthony Richardson (IND) - 155.8 / UNDRAFTABLE

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Colts signed Daniel Jones (more on him later) and have openly called for a QB competition. Even though Richardson should win that camp battle, his leash this year is impossibly short.

Because there are zero guarantees that he is starting in the fantasy playoffs, Richardson is virtually undraftable at this price. This is essentially the Justin Fields 2024 dynamic all over again, except Fields was a last-round pick. Until Richardson's price drops to completely free, there are much better options.

Cam Ward (Rookie) - 158.1 / TARGET

Ward is widely considered to be the top QB prospect in this class and is likely to go No. 1 overall. Whether it's to the Titans or a team that trades up, Ward is very likely to start 17 games as a rookie QB.

Because of this, he's very much a target in drafts right now. Not only do you get the safety of playing time, but you also get the upside of a mystery box rookie who could outperform his ADP in Year 1 like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix last year. This is a really nice price for that kind of upside crack. 

Sam Darnold (SEA) - 167.0 / DRAFTABLE

The Seahawks signed Darnold to a three-year $100.5M contract in Free Agency, which strongly indicates their hope is for him to start 17 games this year.

Still, we watched Darnold implode down the stretch last year and the environment in Seattle is far less cozy than the one he had in Minnesota. There's real risk that the Seahawks draft a QB like Dart or Jalen Milroe and give them starts at some point this season. I'm trying to limit my Darnold exposure to exclusively Jaxon Smith-Njigba teams for stacking purposes.

Shedeur Sanders (Rookie) - 193.9 / TARGET

It's popular to bag on Sanders right now, but he's a target in early best ball drafts at these prices. Despite early rumors that he might slip outside of the Top 10, all of the latest mock drafts (including ours here at Fantasy Life) have Sanders going in the Top 3 to the Giants.

This would mean he'd be on track to start all year. He might not have a massive fantasy ceiling due to how he plays, but with Malik Nabers anything is possible.

Aaron Rodgers (FA) - 201.5 / UNDRAFTABLE

Rodgers wants to play in Minnesota, but they don't want him. The more realistic spot for him is probably the Steelers, but he likely doesn't want to go there. That leaves us in a spot we are all too familiar with—uncertainty surrounding Rodgers. There's no reason to draft him right now. Regardless of where he lands, his ADP is unlikely to jump significantly. Please make this all end.

Jaxson Dart (Rookie) - 216 / DRAFTABLE

Dart is an interesting decision point in drafts right now. He's currently projected to be a mid- to late-first-round pick. That means his chances to start seventeen games are likely slim, but his odds to be playing in the fantasy playoffs are fairly high if he goes to a team like the Steelers or Seahawks. Of all these back-end QBs, he's the only one I'm willing to draft as my QB3 because you can tell yourself a story of where he starts in Weeks 14-17. 

Russell Wilson (FA) - 227.8 / UNDRAFTABLE

Wilson is currently a Free Agent and evaluating his options. There's a chance the Steelers could bring him back or he lands some small deal with a team like the Browns, but he's undraftable for now.

Daniel Jones (IND) - 230.3 / UNDRAFTABLE

Jones might very well end up starting in the fantasy playoffs if Richardson flops, but you'd have to be a seriously sick puppy to draft him right now. If he wins the starting job in camp, we can reevaluate. 

Kirk Cousins (ATL) - 236.6 / UNDRAFTABLE

Cousins is still under contract with the Falcons, although the team is actively trying to trade him. The issue is he's owed a ton of money and it's very unlikely another team will want to give up anything of significance just for the right to pay him a lot of money. I don't see this situation resolving itself anytime soon, which makes him undraftable.

A guy like Jameis Winston could be in the mix at some point, but we can't be throwing darts on players who don't even have a team, much less a clear path to start.

Good luck in your drafts–and stay safe out there when you get to the late rounds.