Last week, we put the rookies under the ADP (average draft position) microscope after the combine, but this week we have even more to sink our teeth into.
Monday and Tuesday brought us a flurry of free agency moves, and the fallout is already being felt in Big Board drafts.
Below, I’ll highlight some of the biggest risers and fallers in drafts and give my take on whether they are still buys or sells at their new prices.
One word of caution: These ADPs were collected only days after the news reached drafters and are likely to change. I would expect the momentum in both directions to continue for the risers and fallers.
In general, if you like the risers, grab them ASAP as their price is likely only going to increase over the coming weeks.
Inversely, if you like the fallers, sit on your hands for a bit until their price settles.
If you’d like to watch me navigate the new ADP landscape, I chase the $200,000 top prize in the Big Board every Monday morning at 10 a.m. ET.
TE Kyle Pitts (ADP: 88 → 73) & WR Drake London (ADP: 37 → 28)
For years, we have collectively begged for better coaching and better QB play in Atlanta. Well, it’s finally arrived. Raheem Morris and McVay protege Zac Robinson, who people forget I've known since preschool, are taking over for Arthur Smith. And now Kirk Cousins is set to replace Desmond Ridder as the QB for our Falcons.
It’s hard to overstate what a massive upgrade this is for both Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who are justifiably screaming up Underdog draft boards.
Cousins has unlocked massive fantasy performances for pass catchers throughout his career in Minnesota and should pick up right where he left off in Atlanta (provided his rehab progresses smoothly).
London is currently the WR21 on Underdog and I wouldn’t think you were crazy chasing him the way up into the Top 15. For more reasons to love London, check out Chris Allen’s recent piece explaining why he’s due for a massive year.
As for Pitts, he’s up to TE7 but still behind George Kittle and Dalton Kincaid. I still prefer Kittle to him but would have no problem taking him ahead of Kincaid. He’s a rock-solid TE selection for as long as he remains in this Round 6 and 7 range.
RB Saquon Barkley (ADP: 23 → 16)
I thought Barkley’s late-Round 2 ADP was rich heading into free agency, but he binked a near perfect fantasy landing spot after signing a three-year $37.75 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles.
That said, I’m likely going to be underweight on Barkley this year at his elevated ADP. We’ll see where he settles, but I envision the market being very frothy to select Barkley in a non-Giants offense.
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) heads to the goal line in the second quarter past Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Nolan Smith (3), Sunday, January 7, 2024.
There are a ton of variables that could lead to Barkley disappointing at this cost:
- The specter of the tush push always looms.
- Jalen Hurts doesn’t throw to his backs a ton.
- The offense was totally inept down the stretch last year.
I think Barkley will be fine, but I don’t think he should be valued much differently than Josh Jacobs, who is going much later…
RB Josh Jacobs (ADP: 59 → 42)
After signing with the Packers, Jacobs immediately jumped a full round in ADP and will likely climb even more after Green Bay released Aaron Jones.
The change of scenery will provide a big boost for Jacobs, who struggled mightily last year in Las Vegas:
He now joins a team with an ascending offense, competent QB play and essentially no competition for touches, which gives hope to him returning to form.
I think he’s a fine selection in the fourth round of drafts alongside Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White and James Cook. I’ll be out if he flips Travis Etienne and shoots up into the early third round.
RB Derrick Henry (ADP: 62 → 48)
I think you could argue that Henry landed an even better landing spot with the Ravens than Barkley did with the Eagles.
Gus Edwards — who scored 13 TDs last year — is gone, J.K. Dobbins is still up in the air as a free agent and the electric Keaton Mitchell is rehabbing from a serious injury.
In his age-29 season, Henry still showed he “had it” last year across a variety of advanced rushing metrics.
I think it’s perfectly reasonable if he settles behind Jacobs in the fourth round of drafts, though the market could end up being even more bullish about his TD prospects and push him up even higher.
WR George Pickens (ADP: 64 → 57)
Pickens’ ADP is on the move after the Steelers signed Russell Wilson.
I think it’s fine to be more bullish on Pickens — especially with Diontae Johnson out of the picture and vacating targets — but I’d be careful steaming him up much further. He now goes ahead of players like Jordan Addison and Christian Kirk, both of whom I have much more confidence in as #good WRs.
Jan 15, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) makes a catch in the first half against the Buffalo Bills in a 2024 AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
Funny ADP side note: Diontae Johnson has been on an ADP rollercoaster where he was initially rising because of Wilson but then course corrected because of the move to Carolina.
Fallers
It’s much more fun discussing the risers, but here’s a quick roundup of fallers:
QB Justin Fields (ADP: 86 → 104)
Fields is plummeting like a rock in drafts thanks to increasing uncertainty about landing a starting job next year.
ADP Take: This fall is very much warranted. When we draft this early, we cannot take zeros at the position. Fade Fields at these prices until we get more clarity.
WR Jordan Addison (ADP: 53 → 62)
The market is worried about Addison’s QB downgrade from Cousins to Sam Darnold or a rookie QB.
ADP Take: I’m buying the dip here. Addison had big games with Nick Mullens last year, who might as well be a carbon copy of Darnold. Not to mention, T.J. Hockenson is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as he recovers from his ACL/MCL tear in December.
RB Tyjae Spears (ADP: 68 → 86)
The trendy second-year back will now face competition from Tony Pollard.
ADP Take: I might be on an island with this take, but I think this was a best-case scenario for Spears and I’m still buying because I was never under the assumption that he was going to be a bellcow back.
The Titans replaced Henry with Pollard, who repeatedly failed to post ceiling games in the Cowboy’s high-powered offense. Spears can still pay off his ADP on efficiency alone and will also possess contingent upside in the event of an injury.
TE Cole Kmet (ADP: 119 → 126)
New QB (Caleb Williams), new coordinator (Shane Waldron) and new competition for snaps (Gerald Everett).
ADP Take: All of these variables make Kmet a very dicey selection. He needs to continue to fall until he’s a late-round pick (a la Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki last year).
