Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate.
What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2?
Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds?
Can you draft three QBs and three TEs on the same team and expect to survive at RB and WR!?!?
The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends.
We hate that answer because it isn’t a silver-bullet solution, and honestly, most folks just want to rip some drafts and have a shot to sweat a big payday when Week 17 rolls around.
Fortunately, there are some simple concepts we can utilize to create an actionable framework that allows us to adapt our plans and structures while we draft without a 50-page flowchart:
- Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League formats can be a significant driver here. For example, on Underdog, starting caliber WRs go quickly.
- Value: Can I target mispriced assets at this position later? These can become pillars for your 2023 build strategies.
- Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will spend later and vice versa.
Of course, every year is different due to ADP trends that impact how we view each.
Last season, if you targeted Josh Jacobs as a value (ADP 71.3), the strategy of waiting on RBs would have paid off in a huge way. He went completely ham AND multiple early-round RB options bombed (i.e., Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, etc.).
That combination of events created a MONSTER advantage for Jacobs drafters—no other player carried a higher regular season advance rate on Underdog than Jacobs at 46%. However, if you built that same strategy around A.J. Dillon (ADP 64.5), you weren’t quite as happy with your 14% advance rate.
Today, we will examine the WR position and work our way through each of the concepts above while accounting for the context of 2023 ADP trends for Underdog contests so you can optimize your builds.
Supply and demand
Last year, we saw a WR craze take over on Underdog, and that momentum has carried through to the 2023 season.
Note: plus means earlier ADP (closer to pick one), and minus means later.
Not only are drafters willing to take the best WRs earlier, but they also remain steadfast by selecting later-round options sooner.
These trends can create significant roster construction challenges when we wait on WRs on Underdog for a couple of reasons:
- It is hard to make up for the quality we miss out on at the top of drafts—Round 5 WRs today aren’t as good as the Round 5 WRs we drafted two years ago.
- It is difficult to make up with quantity because drafters don’t quit clicking on the WRs.
WR strategy overview
Preferably, we want to draft five WRs in the first nine rounds due to the supply and demand challenges AND the value we can pick up later at RB and TE.
Sep 18, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) celebrates after catching a two-point conversion during the fourth quarter against the New England Patriots at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports
However, going with four WRs in the first nine rounds is also an option because it allows us to try different types of builds. For example, there are several high-end RB values in late Round 2 and early Round 3 that offer more upside than their WR counterparts. We need some exposure to 2-RB builds with names like Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson.
When we end up light at the position in the early rounds, we don’t have substantial value pockets, but there are a few names we can get aggressive with to ensure we end up with one or two.
Building pillars – values
Christian Watson | Round 4
The second-year WR doesn’t have the same draft pedigree or rookie-season sample size as Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. However, once healthy and playing and playing in a full-time role after Week 9, Watson was a SMASH. He delivered a 23% target share and an astounding 41% air yards share, averaging a WR1-worthy 17.2 points per game.
Jordan Love is likely a downgrade at QB, but it wasn’t Aaron Rodgers’s best season last year, and Watson was still able to produce. Watson’s ability to score from anywhere on the field and lack of significant target competition help offset offensive environment concerns. He should go closer to Wilson and Olave, offering immense upside in Round 4.
Watson is my second-most drafted WR behind Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first four rounds of drafts at 17%.
Pro tip: Love is easy to stack with Watson as a cheap No. 2 QB in Round 13. I have secured Love on 60% of my Watson builds. I will probably reduce this percentage, but it highlights how easy the stack is to complete—I am not reaching on Love, selecting him right at ADP.
Diontae Johnson | Round 6
Johnson was unlucky in the TD department last year but remained a high-end target earner with a 25% share. That is a WR1-worthy mark based on data back to 2011.
Johnson scored five, seven, and eight TDs in his first three campaigns. Additionally, over the last 12 seasons, WRs between 130 and 170 targets have averaged 7.8 TDs per campaign. Johnson has 141, 166, and 139 targets in his last three seasons. The 27-year-old is a good bet to score five to six TDs this season, even if Kenny Pickett doesn’t make huge strides.
Johnson projects more like a Round 4 WR but goes two rounds later, making him a high-priority target in Round 6. I have him well ahead of ADP in my rankings and he is my most-drafted player on Underdog after 111 drafts.
Quentin Johnston | Round 7
Johnston goes almost two rounds after Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While I love JSN, Johnston has a better path to running more routes as a rookie. The Chargers utilize 11 personnel as their base personnel package, and Kellen Moore will keep the team in pass-happy mode.
According to oddsmakers, the Chargers should be one of the most-improved offenses and offer the second-most shootouts in 2023.
The rookie out of TCU offers a unique blend of field-stretching and run-after-the-catch skills that could quickly make him a favorite of Justin Herbert. Even if Johnston operates as the No. 3 target, it could be enough to push him into WR3 territory, given his big-play upside and the expected passing volume.
However, we can’t rule out Johnston taking over the No. 2 role. Mike Williams has never turned into a high-end target earner, so the door is open. If Williams or Keenan Allen miss any time, Johnston will significantly move up the weekly ranks.
Johnston is my eighth-most rostered WR inside the first eight rounds at 16%.
Pro tip: While Allen and Williams go ahead of Herbert in drafts, Johnston goes two rounds after the QB. They are a worthwhile stack to set up—even when you have missed on Allen and Williams, who have shifted higher in ADP.
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Jameson Williams | Round 8
Taking on zeros with a pick in the first eight rounds isn’t ideal in best ball. However, Williams offers a unique late-season upside in an offense that could be involved in numerous shootouts.
After Williams is off the board, finding young WRs with NFL draft pedigree isn’t easy, making him a great WR5 target and an okay WR4 target.
If you take him as your WR4, be sure to grab a veteran option or two that should see high route participation (i.e., Van Jefferson and Curtis Samuel) in the later rounds. Additionally, try to avoid pairing Williams with other players that might not score points early in the season, like Javonte Williams and Alvin Kamara.
Nico Collins | Round 11
Collins took a step forward in 2022 by registering a WR3-worthy target share and a WR1-worthy air yards share. Even when Brandin Cooks was on the field, Collins was demanding looks.
Additionally, the Texans' WR room isn’t particularly strong, and the team upgraded their QB situation by drafting C.J. Stroud second overall in the NFL Draft.
When I leave the first nine rounds feeling weak at WR, I am willing to reach for Collins in Round 10 to ensure I get him. There aren’t many young WRs who have exhibited upside with a clear path to routes later in the draft due to supply and demand constraints, but Collins fits the bill.
Honorable mentions
Jonathan Mingo | Round 12 – Mingo will have to battle for routes with Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and Terrace Marshall, which could cause a slow start to the season. However, Thielen is on the back nine, Chark has never reached his potential, and Marshall has been a bust.
Mingo wasn’t a high-end target earner in college, but he offers big-play upside, and Bryce Young is known for buying time and pushing the ball vertically. If your WR room is lacking late-season boom potential in Round 12, Mingo is a good option.
Jayden Reed | Round 14 – The market is over-confident in Romeo Doubs as the No. 2 option in Green Bay. Early camp reports have Reed playing on the inside, but he was a vertical threat on the outside at Michigan State.
Don’t be surprised if Reed secures the starting role opposite of Watson in 2 WR sets and kicks inside to the slot when the team uses three receivers. Reed’s collegiate profile and draft capital are significantly stronger than Doubs's.
Curtis Samuel | Round 15 – Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are the top two options in Washington, but Samuel will get plenty of opportunity from the slot and in the backfield.
Oct 23, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel (10) runs after a catch against the Green Bay Packers during the second half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Looking at the TE room, the Commanders’ strongest personnel grouping remains 11 personnel, which should keep Samuel’s 80%-plus route participation intact with the new OC, Eric Bienemy. The veteran WR is a great glue pick late in drafts that can help balance out upside picks and offers upside should McLaurin or Dotson miss time. He ranks far ahead of ADP for me.
Hunter Renfrow | Round 16 – Renfrow’s season was derailed by injuries last year, but he came on strong over the last three games with a WR27 and WR8 performance. Davante Adams is the clear-cut No. 1 option, but Renfrow was a WR2 as recently as 2021, and he isn’t drawing dead with the Raiders. Renfrow could see an ADP boost if he gets traded to a pass-happy offense with a quick-timing QB.
For additional values across all positions, be sure to check out the latest rankings.
Draft capital guidelines
These are only guidelines, not hard and fast rules. The basic rule of thumb is to spend less later if you spend more early and vice versa. Everything works on a sliding scale.
Drafted WR5 or WR6 before Round 9
- Draft like you nailed your selections —you have ground to make up at other positions.
- This is probably an eight-max WR draft but could get to nine under the right circumstances.
- Don’t take another WR in Rounds 9 to 12—those rounds are the sweet spot for upside RBs and QB stacks.
- If you missed TEs, don’t take the bait in Rounds 9 to 11, but Round 12 is okay if the value is right. If not, you can make up for it with volume later.
Drafted WR4 before Round 9
- Ideally, you already have an elite QB and/or three strong RBs in this scenario because you will need to pass value at one of those spots in Round 10 or 11 if you want access to upside options like Nico Collins and Jonathan Mingo.
- BUT…don’t overdo it on WRs in Rounds 9 to 12 because the value isn’t strong; instead, be prepared to pile on more after and consider taking as many as 10.
- Once again, you don’t have to detour for TEs unless you get a great value in Round 12. You can make up for it with volume later.
Drafted WR3 before Round 9
- You are crazy, but I admire your courage.
- This sort of build assumes you already have a high-end QB and TE and three strong RBs. I wouldn’t attempt this sort of build to have two elite QBs.
- Aggressively attack upside like Nico Collins, Jonathan Mingo, and Skyy Moore in Rounds 9 to 12—even if it means reaching so you can get multiple—since it is hard to find similar profiles much later.
- After those rounds, fill in your roster with veterans with high expectations in the routes department. (e.g., Curtis Samuel, Van Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, etc.).
Looking for even more optimal roster construction strategy? Dwain has you covered for every position below!
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