Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate.
What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2?
Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds?
Can you draft three QBs and three TEs on the same team and expect to survive at RB and WR!?!?
The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite: it depends.
We hate that answer because it isn’t a silver-bullet solution, and honestly, most folks just want to rip some drafts and have a shot to sweat a big payday when Week 17 rolls around.
Fortunately, there are some simple concepts we can utilize to create an actionable framework that allows us to adapt our plans and structures while we draft without a 50-page flowchart:
- Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League formats can be a significant driver here. For example, on Underdog, starting caliber WRs go quickly.
- Value: Can I target mispriced assets at this position later? These can become pillars for your 2023 build strategies.
- Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will spend later and vice versa.
Of course, every year is different due to ADP trends that impact how we view each.
Last season, if you targeted Josh Jacobs as a value (ADP 71.3), the strategy of waiting on RBs would have paid off in a huge way. He went completely ham AND multiple early-round RB options bombed (i.e., Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, etc.).
That combination of events created a MONSTER advantage for Jacobs drafters—no other player carried a higher regular season advance rate on Underdog than Jacobs at 46%. However, if you built that same strategy around A.J. Dillon (ADP 64.5), you weren’t quite as happy with your 14% advance rate.
Today, we will dive into RBs and work our way through each of the concepts above while accounting for the context of 2023 ADP trends for Underdog contests so you can optimize your builds.
Supply and demand
RBs are going later than ever in Underdog drafts. The top-24 options are going 10 selections later on average compared to 2022. However, as the draft continues, the ADP disparity versus last year dissipates, with RB25 to 48 only going 1.9 picks later.
RB strategy overview
On one hand, seeing players like Jacobs fall to Round 3 seems like an overreaction—especially in a half-PPR format. On the other hand, it is hard to take more than one RB in the first three rounds because, on Underdog, your league mates will continue to pound WRs until they are all gone.
Often, you will find RB to be the best ADP value in your queue when you are on the clock, and if you already have three, it is hard to extract much actual value from the discount. Additionally, late-round RBs have a better chance of ascending in value during the preseason if a starter goes down—something we don’t see with WRs.
Due to these factors, my favorite approach to RB in 2023 is grabbing one high-end option in the first three rounds and then piecing together the rest of my unit by focusing on ADP value after I have four or five WRs.
I do occasionally make exceptions to this rule at the Round 2/3 turn by taking two RBs and have even started with three RBs a few times—two strategies we will discuss more below under Draft Capital Plans.
Building pillars – values
Tony Pollard | Round 2
Pollard is my most rostered RB in the first two rounds at 17%. His explosive playmaking ability and receiving prowess provide him with league-crushing upside. I would be willing to take him as high as late Round 1, and you can get him in late Round 2.
Rhamondre Stevenson & friends | Round 3
Similar to Pollard, Stevenson has big-time receiving down chops and the path to 300 touches is wide open with Damien Harris gone via free agency and James Robinson cut. Stevenson profiles like a back we would have spent early Round 2 capital on in previous seasons.
Of course, Stevenson is just one of many great options at RB in the early third round, including Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall. Ultimately, I have a slight preference for Stevenson. Still, I am diversifying my exposures across this group and using the Best Ball Hub to monitor my most common player combinations so I can mix things up.
Jahmyr Gibbs | Round 4
If you are drafting from a late position and started WR/WR, Gibbs is an option to consider in Round 4. He is my most rostered RB over the first four rounds at 18% because he is an excellent receiving back with explosive playmaking upside.
David Montgomery will undoubtedly handle a large chunk of the early-down work in Detroit this year, but Gibbs could still pay off in a limited role thanks to his skill set. If for some reason he ends up leading the backfield, you have top-six upside.
You don't need to force Gibbs if you already grabbed another back like Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, or Nick Chubb with one of your first two picks. Feel free to mix him occasionally, but don’t fall too far behind in the race for WRs.
Joe Mixon | Round 5
Mixon isn’t a selection for the faint of heart because he could still face a suspension. However, there is a chance he will avoid any punishment from the NFL.
It is worth noting that he was highly inefficient last year as a runner. However, he had one of his best years regarding target share, and the Bengals are an elite offense that offers huge TD upside.
Despite his efficiency woes, I found it hard to project him below 15 points per game in a half-PPR format. If he didn’t have the legal concerns, he would be a Round 3 selection.
Honorable mentions
Alexander Mattison | Round 6 – It seems folks have been quick to dump on Mattison now that his ADP is at the beginning of Round 6. While he hasn’t been an elite back, his missed tackles forced and explosive rush rate rank in RB1 territory compared to backs since 2012.
He has work to do in the passing game, but the Vikings should be a high-scoring offense providing plenty of TD upside. Plus, we don’t know anything about the other backs on this roster, and none of them have significant draft capital, while Mattison got a nice offseason contract.
Start taking advantage of these values TODAY on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
Cam Akers | Round 6 – Akers is a replacement-level back, but his late-Round 6 ADP makes him worth consideration. We have seen McVay show a willingness to ride one RB, and over the last three games, he handled 82% of snaps and 73% of rushing attempts and saw a 67% route share on his way to 19.5 PPG.
D’Andre Swift | Round 7 – Swift is another back that offers the explosive playmaking and passing-down profile we covet. He still has RB1 upside, and even in a reduced role, he projects similar to players around him. If there is a name in the honorable mentions group I want to ramp up exposure to , it is Swift because of his high-end range of outcomes.
Rachaad White | Round 7 – White was wildly inefficient in the rushing department last year, but he flashed as a receiver with a 22% target rate. The Bucs won’t be favorites in many contests this year, which could force them to replace the ground game with underneath throws to the backs. Additionally, the Tampa Bay depth chart behind White is pretty gross.
James Conner | Round 8 – The Cardinals aren’t going to be very good this year, and Conner is a replacement-level RB. However, that is all priced into a Round 8 ADP, making him a name worthy of selecting when you need your RB2 in Round 8. Let’s not get carried away with our exposure rates, though.
Draft capital guidelines
Remember, these are just guidelines, not hard and fast rules. The basic rule of thumb is to spend less later if you spend more early and vice versa. Everything works on a sliding scale.
Drafted one RB by round 4 (hopefully by round 3)
- Draft like you nailed your RB1 selection and take the value as it falls
- Aim for a minimum of three and a maximum of four RBs before Round 11
- Five RBs are my favorite builds starting this way, but six is okay as well depending on your build and value
- Exception: if you draft Mixon as your RB1 in Round 5, assume he pays off like a Round 3 pick and use this same plan
Example RB Room: Tony Pollard (R2), Cam Akers (R7), Zach Charbonnet (R9), Jerome Ford (R14), Gus Edwards (R16)
Drafted zero RBs by round 4
- Build a mix of projection and upside prospects between Round 5 and Round 11, but don’t reach. Example: Akers projects well on expected volume, and Swift offers talent-based upside
- Aim for a minimum of three and a maximum of four RBs before Round 11
- This can still be a five-RB build if you tack on your fifth option shortly after Round 10. However, it might be best as a six-RB build if you wait to add No. 5
- Note: this will tie up a lot of picks where QBs go, and the WR tiers hit a cliff in Round 9
Example RB Room: D’Andre Swift (R7), Rachaad White (R8), Antonio Gibson (R9), Jerick McKinnon (R11), Jaylen Warren (R12), Gus Edwards (R16)
Drafted two RBs by round 4
- Don’t come back for your RB3 until Round 8 at the earliest unless you get an amazing ADP value, also don’t be afraid to push it
- If you do take another RB in Round 8, don’t be afraid to try a four-RB build
Example RB Room: Tony Pollard (R2), Rhamondre Stevenson (R3), Zach Charbonnet (R9), Chuba Hubbard (R15), Gus Edwards (RB16)
Drafted three RBs by round 4
- Admit it…you want to try it.
- A three- to four-RB build is in play with this strategy
- Watch your bye weeks!
Example RB Room: Bijan Robinson (R1), Nick Chubb (R2), Breece Hall (R7), Gus Edwards (R16)
Looking for even more optimal roster construction strategy? Dwain has you covered for every position below!
