Roster construction is a multi-faceted topic that we often overcomplicate.
- What’s better? A 2-6-7-3 build or a 3-5-8-2 build?
- Should I take my Week 17 correlation stack or address another position of need in the later rounds?
- Can you draft three QBs and three TEs on the same team and expect to survive at RB and WR?!
The answer to these questions is everyone’s least favorite answer: it depends.
We hate that answer because it isn’t a silver-bullet solution, and honestly, most folks just want to rip some drafts and have a shot to sweat a big payday when Week 17 rolls around. Fortunately, there are some simple concepts we can utilize to create an actionable framework that allows us to adapt our plans and structures while we draft without a 50-page flowchart:
- Positional supply and demand: How many players do I need at each position, and how many total players are available at those positions? Varying scoring settings and ADPs across different platforms can be significant drivers. For example, on Underdog, starting-caliber WRs go quickly.
- Value: Can I target mispriced assets at this position later? These can become pillars for your 2023 build strategies.
- Draft capital allocation: How much draft capital have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more draft capital we spend on a particular position earlier in drafts, the less capital we should allocate to that position later in drafts and vice versa.
Of course, every year is different due to ADP trends that impact how we view each position. Last season, if you targeted Josh Jacobs as a value (ADP of 71.3 overall), the strategy of waiting on RBs would have paid off in a huge way. He went completely ham, and multiple early-round RB options bombed (e.g., Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, Najee Harris, etc.).
That combination of events created a monstrous advantage for teams that drafted Jacobs. In fact, no other player carried a higher regular season advance rate on Underdog than Jacobs did at 46%. However, if you waited on RB last year and targeted A.J. Dillon (ADP of 64.5 overall) instead of Jacobs, you probably weren’t quite as happy with your 14% advance rate.
Today, we will examine how to optimize roster builds at the TE position while accounting for ADP trends heading into the 2023 NFL season. We'll work our way through each of the concepts mentioned above in detail.
Supply and Demand
The market has cooled on TEs not named Travis Kelce early in best ball drafts.
However, the rest of the top-five TEs have dropped in ADP compared to last offseason at -12.1 spots. This is likely because some of the other elite talents at TE like Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Kyle Pitts are playing in crowded situations on teams that could be more run-heavy. As a result, drafters are leery of them, and rising ADPs for QBs and WRs are helping to push down the ADPs of these top TEs.
Note: plus means earlier ADP (closer to pick one), and minus means later ADP.
Of course, drafters were also badly burned by Pitts (ADP of 30th overall last year) and Darren Waller (ADP of 49th overall last year). Both of these highly-drafted TEs from 2022 delivered awful advance rates in BBMIII at 9.5% and 10.3%, respectively. Because of those TE busts from last year, recency bias could also be a factor in the ADP of top-five TEs dipping heading into 2023.
On the other hand, the ADPs of the TE7 to TE12 are up by 1.1 spots. This range of TEs typically won't offer much differentiation from the next tier and are more likely to be replaced by late-round options. One thing is clear about TEs, though: the blowup seasons come from guys with elite talent, and this range of back-end TE1s is generally lacking.
One final note is that we could see more TEs drafted in the TE25 to TE36 range this year, as drafters are generally more willing to select three TEs when waiting on the position this offseason.
There are multiple late-round TE options with a route to significant playing time that could be worth targeting over late-round RBs or WRs who might not even see much playing time. Injury rates for TEs are also often understated, so adding a third TE for depth in the final rounds of best ball drafts could be a key to advancing in the playoffs this coming season.
TE Strategy Overview
It's hard to argue against Kelce in Round 1 given his 30%-plus advance rate in BBMIII and the fact that Kansas City didn’t add any WRs or TEs to challenge his dominant target share. However, after Kelce, we should seek exposure to TEs with elite talent profiles between Rounds 3 and 7.
Yes, those TEs may have concerns about their respective offensive environment, but so do many WRs going in that range. If you're willing to take a chance on WRs in questionable passing offenses like Drake London, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore, then you should also be willing to take a shot on Pitts in Round 6 or Waller in Round 7.
Once we get past this tier of TEs in Round 7, I typically tap the breaks on solid but not-great talent profiles like Evan Engram and David Njoku. They were two of my most-rostered TEs in 2021 at ADP, but the market dynamics have changed. Where these TEs now go in drafts, I prefer to pivot and try to beat the WR cliff, take shots on upside RBs, or look to hot mid-range QB stacks instead.
This means that if you miss out on the top few TEs, it's advantageous to pass on the middling TEs and wait to extract some late-round value. Don't worry, we've got you covered with some late-round TE targets with upside.
You can test out these TE strategies on Underdog Fantasy and double your first deposit of up to $100 when you sign up below!
Building Pillars – Values
Mark Andrews
- Round 3
Andrews was the top-scoring fantasy TE over Kelce in 2021 and boasted the top advance rate for a TE in BBMIII at 29%. He was operating at a torrid pace again in 2022 over the first six weeks with 17.5 points per game (PPG) last season before suffering a knee injury.
Yes, the Ravens have added target competition by drafting Zay Flowers and signing Odell Beckham Jr., but Andrews is an elite talent with the upside to knock Kelce from his pedestal as the No. 1 TE in 2023. The real question is if the Ravens WRs can earn enough targets to be fantasy relevant after Andrews gets his.
When you reach the middle of Round 3, Andrews should be a priority target. He and Lamar Jackson are great pivots from overpriced WRs in that ADP range, as my projections have Andrews outscoring D.K. Metcalf straight up. Drafting Andrews also gives you a substantial positional advantage at TE, where many teams will be hurting. Andrews is my most-drafted TE inside the first six rounds.
Pro tip: draft Andrews before Jackson at the end of Round 3 if hoping to set up the stack. The drafters behind you will sometimes pass on Jackson as they try to set up their own QB-WR stacks. Despite their same-round ADP, I have managed to get Jackson in Round 4 on 19% of my Andrews teams.
Kyle Pitts
- Round 6
Pitts is a bit of a lightning rod in the fantasy community due to how badly he burned some drafters last season in BBMIII with his hefty Round 3 price tag. However, there are real reasons to be concerned about Pitts once again in 2023. Despite his talent, Pitts has questions about his QB, is playing on a run-first offense, and will face target competition from a talented WR in Drake London.
The good news is that Pitts's ADP is far cheaper this offseason than it was last year. In fact, his late Round 6 price tag has plummeted another six spots in the two months since BBMIV opened in May. His current ADP more than accounts for the fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
There's more good news: Pitts is one of the most talented TEs in the league based on data that correlates strongly to future fantasy performance since 2011. He out-targeted London when they were on the field together in 2022, and Pitts's target and air-yards earning ability is on par with Kelce and Andrews.
And finally, there's even more good news. It's possible that no other NFL player was as unlucky as Pitts was last season. Even if the Falcons fix all their issues this offseason, it would be tough for Atlanta to be as bad as they were in 2022.
Remember that the NFL season is filled with chaos, and Pitts has the type of talent profile that unlocks league-winning upside if a few things unexpectedly go his way, such as a higher-than-expected pass rate, better-than-expected QB play from Desmond Ridder, or injuries to teammates like London or Bijan Robinson.
Darren Waller
- Round 7
Waller registered his second-lowest targets per route run (TPRR) of his career at 17% last year. However, he battled a hamstring injury that kept him off the field for eight games, and in the three seasons prior to 2022, Waller boasted strong TPRR of 23%, 27%, and 24%, respectively.
Could he be washed at the age of 31? Of course that's possible, but TEs have historically produced fantasy stars at advanced ages at a far higher rate than RBs or WRs. And given the Giants’ lack of proven target-earners at WR, I will bet on Waller bouncing back from an injury-depleted season, especially at his cheap Round 7 ADP.
Waller is currently my most-rostered TE through 115 Underdog drafts at 20% exposure. He has a good chance of outscoring the WRs going in that ADP range while providing a big positional advantage. After Waller, there is a significant tier break at the TE position.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
- Round 11
If you want a shot at a sleeper with the potential talent profile to rival the top TEs, Okonkwo is your man. He only posted a 32% route participation as a rookie last year, so our sample is small, but Okonkwo was amazing when he did see the field.
In 2022, Okonkwo's 26% target rate, 2.61 YPRR, and 84.6 receiving grade per Pro Football Focus (PFF) were all elite. With Austin Hooper out of the picture in 2023, the path is wide open for Okonkwo to take over a more prominent role on a Titans offense that lacks target-earners outside of himself and Treylon Burks.
It's worth noting, though, that Okonkwo’s ADP is currently in the sweet spot for upside RBs and QB stacking partners, so he fits best on teams that are already strong at those positions but lacking at TE.
Tyler Higbee
- Round 13
Last year, Higbee had an 84% route participation before offensive line injuries caused him to spend more time staying in-line to block. After the casualties mounted last season, Higbee's route participation slipped to 63%.
His 24% target rate in 2022 was borderline elite for the position, and he delivered a 28% target share in his six games with a route participation of over 80%. Four of those games were with Cooper Kupp, so Kupp's return doesn't necessarily mean that Higbee will run fewer routes or see fewer targets in 2023.
Jan 9, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams tight end Tyler Higbee (89) catches a pass in the end zone for a touchdown as he is defended by San Francisco 49ers cornerback Ambry Thomas (20) at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The Rams didn’t invest much in their receiving corps for the coming year, but they did add guard Steve Avila out of TCU with their first selection of the 2023 NFL Draft at pick No. 36 overall. With a healthier offensive line hopefully freeing up Higbee to run more routes as he did early in 2022, Higbee is my favorite to finish second on the team in targets this season.
You can snag Higbee as the TE16 on Underdog, and he could produce similarly to TEs like Njoku and Engram, both of whom are being drafted over 40 picks earlier. Higbee makes for a great TE2, or he can be a solid TE1 in builds where you waited on the position to draft three TEs in the double-digit rounds.
Honorable Mentions
Pat Freiermuth
- Round 9
Freiermuth ranks ahead of Njoku and Engram because he could still be an ascending talent. The challenge is his Round 9 ADP, so you must feel great about the RBs and QBs on your roster already to take a swing on Freiermuth.
Dalton Schultz
- Round 12
Schultz has slipped into Round 12 of BBMIV drafts thanks to a 12-spot drop in ADP since May. This is fantastic news. The veteran TE battled an MCL injury last year, but once fully healthy after the Week 9 bye, Schultz saw a 20% target share while competing with CeeDee Lamb for looks. Now in Houston on a team with many questions at WR, Schultz looks like a lock to be a top-two receiving option. If you wait on TE, Schultz is a nice start to a 3TE build.
Greg Dulcich
- Round 12
Dulcich offers an upside talent profile as a field stretcher with untapped potential in the target-earning department. Sean Payton has experience maximizing that type of profile, and Russell Wilson is at his best targeting the seams and deep crossers, where the second-year TE could carve out a significant role.
Luke Musgrave
- Round 17
Musgrave didn’t grade well in the TE Rookie Super Model due to his low-end target-earning profile. However, the Packers believe in him, and Musgrave has a clear path to snaps and routes as a rookie. He is a similar archetype to Dulcich as a big-play threat and might not need a lot of target volume to hit some spike weeks. Musgrave is worth queuing up in 3TE builds.
Hunter Henry
- Round 18
Henry is my go-to option in 3TE builds as my last-round selection. He is the in-line option for New England and has a clear path to 75% route participation even with the addition of Mike Gesicki this offseason. If TD regression bounces back in his favor, a top-12 fantasy TE finish well within Henry's range of outcomes in 2023.
For additional values across all positions, check out the latest rankings.
Draft Capital Guidelines
These are only guidelines, not hard and fast rules. The basic rule of thumb is to spend less draft capital on a given position later in drafts if you've already invested early-round draft capital on that position and vice versa. Everything works on a sliding scale.
Drafted TE1 before Round 8
- Draft like you nailed your selections – you have ground to make up at other positions.
- This is likely a 2TE build.
- Don’t take another TE until Round 12 at the earliest; waiting until very late is definitely in play.
- If you take a detour in Rounds 9 to 11 for a TE, it should only be for a stacking option with your QB or Freiermuth if he falls past ADP and becomes a value.
Drafted TE1 after Round 8
- This is an excellent spot to consider a 3TE build, but you don’t have to draft all of them immediately. You can spread them out over the final seven rounds.
- Take a shot on an upside TE in Round 17 or 18 as your TE3.
- If you take Engram or Njoku in the middle rounds, a 3TE build is still in play due to their profiles. However, given how much draft capital you already invested at the position, a 2TE build is also in play if you grab an upside TE2 before the final rounds like Okonkwo, Schultz, or Higbee.
Drafted TE2 before Round 11
- It's not optimal to invest so heavily in two TEs in the early to middle rounds, but crazier things have happened (i.e., Pitts in Round 7 and Waller in Round 9).
- If you do decide to grab two TEs early due to falling ADP values or intriguing stacking opportunities, definitely do not draft a third TE.
You can test out these TE strategies on Underdog Fantasy and double your first deposit of up to $100 when you sign up below!
For more positional strategy breakdowns for best ball from Dwain, check out these articles below:
