Implied totals blend multiple metrics into a single number. With them, we can compare a team against their opponent or the rest of the league. In DFS, team totals can indicate which contests to target (or fade). I just moved the analysis to best ball.
I started with the all-important Week 17 and which matchups should be on our radars. But first, we need to get there. After reading Dwain McFarland’s Strength of Schedule piece, I used the same data to find four QBs we should prioritize in drafts at their current cost.
Notes on process
Let’s start with the data. Superbook put out regular season game totals (Weeks 1-17 for Underdog’s BBM 4 contest) and spreads for every team. I could get a league-wide snapshot after pulling all the weekly projections together. The top 10 weren’t much of a surprise:
But those numbers on their own aren’t as useful. We know those teams are good with chances for big games every week. However, we can see something different when I overlaid QB ADP with the same numbers.
The top five offenses have the top five QBs with the highest ADPs. I don’t have an issue with following the market during the early rounds, but a few teams deviated from the trend set by the elite passers. After applying the same process to the BBM 4 playoffs, I found a similar trend.
For both charts, context explains part of the disconnect. Brock Purdy is still on the mend, and the Raiders are sorting through the implications of Jimmy Garoppolo’s latest surgery. But injuries don’t explain all the spikes, and Vegas clearly disagrees with our feelings on a few QB situations.
Let’s start with a couple of obvious names.
High-end options
Justin Herbert, Chargers
The Chargers have the eighth-highest weekly implied average, and Justin Herbert is the seventh passer taken in best ball drafts. After a season marred by injuries and a playoff loss encapsulating the term “Chargering,” Herbert’s rank feels right. But Vegas is telling us we should expect a bit more.
To go with his high team totals, Herbert’s opponents may force him to stay competitive all game. The Chargers have the second-highest projected number of shootouts (both teams carry an implied total of 23 points or more), and the spread for 12 of their games is within a field goal. And with Kellen Moore now overseeing Herbert’s development, there’s more optimism about the offense.
Since Herbert’s rookie season, Dak Prescott (under Moore’s guidance) has been the more aggressive QB. Not just in tight-window throws, but Dallas’s passing attack used the intermediate and deep areas of the field more often than the Chargers.
Plus, Moore’s play designs in the red zone (in part) gave Prescott an edge in efficiency once the team got into scoring position.
Herbert’s had a higher pass rate over expectation (PROE), generated more expected points added on a per-attempt basis using his legs, and now has another target to create explosives downfield. Combined with Moore’s play-calling, the Chargers’ implied totals match the type of offense they’ve built over the offseason.
You could combine Herbert with almost any other passer given his weekly top-6 upside. But let's find some optimal options.
Historical roster builds indicate an early-round QB with a second drafted by the end of the mid-rounds has an above-average advance rate. Coincidentally, there's a shootout projected during Week 5 when the Chargers are on their bye.
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings host the Chiefs that same week. The contest carries the highest total (53.5) and both teams are top 10 in PROE. With Cousins' 10th-round ADP and high-scoring matchup, he's an ideal pair with Herbert.
Other Option(s): Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff
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Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Miami’s offense ranks ninth in average weekly total for the regular season and the Week 15-17 playoffs. However, Tua Tagovailoa typically gets drafted at QB10.
In 2022, the Dolphins finished seventh in PROE, had the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate, and added a pass-catching RB with one of their two early-round picks. So, even at first glance, Tua’s outlook can beat his ADP.
But a closer look makes him look even better.
Dec 11, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) drops back to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Using our defined threshold, the Dolphins only have two shootouts on the schedule. But they’ve got three more that fall within a point:
- Week 4 at Bills: 22.75-point team total (51.0-point game total)
- Week 7 at Eagles: 22 (48.5)
- Week 16 vs. Cowboys: 22.5 (47.5)
All three contests are against top-10 efficient offenses capable of exceeding their projections. If we assume these fall into the “shootout” category, Miami’s total moves to five, tying them for the third-most. And let’s look at Tua’s matchups during the most critical portion of the BBM4 tournament:
- Week 15 vs. Jets: 23.75-implied total, 2.5-point spread
- Week 16 vs. Cowboys: T-2nd-highest total of the week, 2-point spread
- Week 17 at Ravens: shootout potential, 2.5-point spread
Again, we can safely expect high-scoring affairs for Miami. For each game, Tua will face opposing offenses ranked in the league's top half for their average weekly total during the playoffs. With each having spreads within a field goal, coach Mike McDaniel will need Tua’s arm as much as fantasy managers.
Drafters can take a “choose-your-own-adventure” approach to mid-round passers. You can pair them with:
- An early-round QB
- Another mid-round passer
- Or two other mid or late-round signal-callers
Let's assume you bypassed the elite options and built a solid core. So you'll need at least one QB to cover for Tua in Week 10. Dak Prescott's divisional rematch against the Giants sticks out.
The Cowboys-Giants contest has the second-highest total of the week and Dallas has the third-highest team total. New York finished ‘22 ranked 22nd in passing DVOA. They made investments over the offseason, but Prescott gives drafters the best chance to take advantage of Tua’s off-week.
Other Option(s): Geno Smith (Two-QB Builds), Mac Jones (Three-QB Builds)
Diamonds in the rough
Jared Goff, Lions
By Vegas standards, Detroit’s offense looks like one to target. Their weekly (24.6 points) and playoff (23.5) averages rank inside the top six. They have the third-most shootouts (5) on the schedule. And it’s not like the best-ball market disagrees.
The Lions' skill players have roared their way back into relevance, with Amon-Ra St. Brown leading the pride. They even have two RBs boasting top-100 ADP values. Drafters are more than happy to click on a Detroit player in drafts. That is, until they get to Jared Goff.
Goff is the only passer piloting a team with a top-10 weekly implied average who carries an ADP outside the first ten rounds. All he needed was the Sun God to keep the offense moving, and we saw shades of 2018 Goff.
But the lack of appeal toward Goff isn’t specifically about him. It’s last year’s play-calling.
OC Ben Johnson used Jamaal Williams as a battering ram to finish drives. The closest match to Williams’s 45 carries from inside an opponent’s 10-yard line is Joe Mixon’s 29 attempts. As a result, Jamaal’s yards gained to find the endzone became notable:
But Williams is learning to pronounce “beignets” down south, and David Montgomery likely fills the coveted short-yardage role. And the former Chicago RB, despite his size, has ranked outside the top 20 in EPA per attempt on short-down-and-distance carries in two of the last three seasons. After racking up the third-most rushing TDs last season, any shift to the air would push Goff past his ADP.
Vegas projects Detroit for two of the highest-scoring games in Weeks 16 (at MIN) and 17 (at DAL). They also have four contests over 50 points. With Goff’s ADP allowing affordable stacks, he should be a constant target in 3-QB builds.
Aaron Rodgers, Jets
Switching from a combination of Mike White, Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler to Aaron Rodgers would make anyone excited. But this year feels different as the betting market actually agrees with the confidence expressed by their new QB.
The Jets slide into the top 12 average implied total after a dismal ’22 season. They only have two shootouts on the schedule (Week 1 - Bills, Week 6 - Eagles), but Rodgers has lifted their expected floor.
And this boost in projections isn’t just from Rodgers’s name value or by having the fifth-highest CPOE since working with OC Nathaniel Hackett. It’s what the offense can do with him under center.
With Hackett, Rodgers was top 10 in red-zone PROE, which held in ‘22 despite losing his OC and top WR. And even without an All-Pro WR, Garrett Wilson (who ranked first in YPRR amongst all rookies) and the ancillary options can keep any defense on their toes.
At QB16 on Underdog, Rodgers pairs best with the early-round passers. His floor, and lessened potential for spike weeks, would make him an ideal candidate for a bye-week replacement.
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