In Wednesday's newsletter, I took a look at Thor's predicted landing spots for the Tier 2 RBs in his excellent two-round mock draft.

And it got me thinking … what are the best landing spots for the running backs? And how many of them are actually available?

To point me in the right direction, I looked at the current ADP in Underdog drafts for each team's top running back.

While not a perfect metric for determining the best landing spots, it shows us where there is market uncertainty and the potential for a rookie to step in and command a big role.

On one end of the spectrum, you have the Eagles and Saquon Barkley (ADP 2.4). There is almost zero chance they invest anything significant in the RB position. And even if they did, it would be a brutal landing spot for a rookie.

On the other end, you have the Broncos. The first Denver RB, Audric Estime, isn't getting selected until pick 232.2. If you've read a single mock draft, you are well aware that the Broncos are likely to take a running back in Round 1 or 2 and represent a premium landing spot for a rookie.

With that said, I've tiered each team into seven different categories. This will give you a good idea of how many rookie RBs could be vaulted into legitimate fantasy relevance and, conversely, which veteran RBs could see their value fall greatly post-draft.

The Dream: Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Chiefs

There's not much left to say about the Broncos and the Raiders. Both have massive needs at the position and are favorites in the betting markets to select a running back as their first player (Denver +130 and Las Vegas -140) in Round 1.

The Cowboys are interesting in that they fully eschewed the position in the draft last year, and yet they still represent a dream landing spot for a rookie. Javonte isn't a roadblock, he's a nearly undetectable speed bump at best.

Considering Pacheco got beat out by a dusty Kareem Hunt when it mattered most last year, I don't see why a Day 2 rookie wouldn't immediately be the favorite to lead this backfield. The Chiefs have three picks in the sweet spot for this deep RB class (No. 63, 66, and 95).

There's a very good chance that all four of these teams will have a rookie RB with an ADP inside the Top 50 by the end of the summer.

Near Perfect: Browns, Bears, Patriots, Steelers

These four landing spots present us with immense fantasy upside for an incoming rookie and a path to immediate standalone value, but there are small hiccups that prevent them from being windmill slam dunks like the previous three.

The Browns would be a dream landing spot if the offensive environment were better. That said, a Day 2 pick in this class should be able to beat out Ford for a big role.

Swift isn't going to fully disappear, otherwise, the Bears would represent a premium location for a rookie in an ascending offense with a new coaching staff. There's upside for a big-bodied back (like Thor's suggestion of Quinshon Judkins) to come in and immediately lock up the early-down and goal-line work in this offense.

Similar to Swift, Stevenson is just good enough to maintain a role alongside a talented rookie. There are also offensive environment concerns since the Patriots have a truly abysmal offensive line. Still, I'd be very excited to draft a talented rookie to have a solid role out of the gate and eventually take over this backfield.

Warren is definitely the best incumbent of this grouping and is unlikely to relinquish his pass-catching role. There is clearly room for two RBs to succeed in Pittsburgh, however, so this remains a near-perfect spot for a bruiser back to fill the Najee role alongside Warren.

Fake Committee: Commanders, Chiefs, Giants, Jaguars, Saints

This tier is called "Fake Committee" because casual fantasy gamers would be worried about a gross committee forming with an incoming rookie, but I'm confident that a talented rookie back would have the ability to take over these backfields by the fantasy playoffs (think Bucky Irving in Tampa Bay last year). 

While all of these veteran backs would not go quietly into the night and would likely force a timeshare at the start of the season, any of the Top 7-8 RBs in this draft class could steal the backfield away at any point. 

Thor's forecast of Cam Skattebo to the Commanders in Round 2 is a good example of how this tier could shake out.

Messy, But Upside: Cardinals, Titans, Vikings, Chargers, Panthers, Texans, Bills, Bengals, Dolphins, 49ers

This is by far the biggest tier of the bunch. All of these landing spots would be messy in some form or another.

The degree to how messy it would be fully depends on the draft capital spent by the team and the talent/fit of the incoming RB.

You could almost come up with secondary groups within this tier:

  • Elite run schemes that love selecting RBs every draft: Dolphins, 49ers
  • Strong offenses with lead backs who have room for a complement: Bengals, Bills, Texans
  • Average teams with one or two solid backs but not an elite back: Cardinals, Titans, Vikings, Chargers, Panthers

While no one would be doing cartwheels for these landing spots, we need to remain open to the possibility. 

Two years ago, the Dolphins added Achane to a crowded backfield with Mostert and Jeff Wilson. You know how that ended.

A few years back, the Falcons shocked everyone by adding Bijan despite a breakout rookie season from Tyler Allgeier.

And teams like the Bills, Bengals, and Texans have hinted in some form or another that they don't want to saddle up their lead back with 20+ touches per game. An incoming rookie could easily have a standalone role in these spots.

Gross: Seahawks, Jets, Rams, Packers, Colts, Ravens

While it wouldn't be impossible for one of these teams to add a running back in the draft, it would likely not be until Day 3. 

There would be no standalone value for a rookie on these teams, as they would likely need one (if not two) injuries in front of them to become relevant. Gross.

Not Happening: Buccaneers, Lions, Falcons, Eagles

These are the best backfields in the league. A rookie RB would be absolutely buried on the depth chart. It's not happening (famous last words, I know).

TLDR: I count up to thirteen landing spots that could result in fantasy goodness for a rookie RB (and spell doom for the veterans). Buckle up, we are in for a bumpy ADP ride over the next month.