As we head towards the start of the postseason, the Underdog best ball scene is still going. They have three round playoff tournaments ready to go that start this week with the Divisional Round and run through the Super Bowl.
Both the Gauntlet ($25 entry and 300K prize pool) and the Mitten ($5 entry and 100K prize pool) are running drafts as we speak.
Matt LaMarca did a fantastic breakdown of how to approach the Underdog playoff best ball events from a strategy perspective before Round 1. While not everything there will apply now that we’re into the second round of the playoffs, there is still a lot of good advice to lean on.
So today, I’m going to dive into specific players and teams to target and give a few more specific ways of how to approach these drafts.
Playoff Underdog Best Ball Strategy and Format
One thing is for sure, with some of these contests having over 100K entrants, it will be smart to get some outside-the-box thinking going and not just draft with the crowd every time.
Before we start, a quick reminder about the format … the lineup for Underdog’s playoff best ball contests is as follows:
- QB
- RB
- WR/TE
- WR/TE
- FLEX
- BENCH (x5)
Additionally, the playoff best ball events have four rounds.
- Round 1 – The Divisional Playoff
- Round 2 – Conference Championships
- Round 3 – Super Bowl
Each contest will have different round-by-round requirements, but the just of it is that you’ll need a high finish (or to win your group) to advance to the next round. To sum things up, we need upside and we need to take some chances, while also building smartly from a playoff bracket perspective.
Here are some of my favorite targets below, starting with a few different stacks to focus on in the divisional round.
Underdog Best Ball Picks - Divisional Round
Lions + Bills (Josh Allen)
You can probably understand why I like the Lions and Bills. First, we’re talking about the NFC number one seed and the AFC Number two seed, so both teams have an excellent shot at reaching the Super Bowl. As of now, Detroit has the shortest odds of reaching the Super Bowl and Buffalo is not far behind (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
- Detroit Lions +275
- KC Chiefs +350
- Philadelphia Eagles +400
- Baltimore Ravens +475
- Buffalo Bills +550
- Los Angeles Rams +2200
- Washington Commanders +2800
- Houston Texans +5500
But there are other strategic reasons why loading up on these two makes sense.
Josh Allen would be a must in this spot. He just accounts for so much of the Bills offense given his ability to rush that any Bills Big Game appearance would likely result in him being a leader at QB in all three rounds. And even though Allen would be popular there are ways we can differentiate with him as our QB.
Amari Cooper isn’t likely to be taken in every draft, despite catching a couple of TDs from Allen already and going for 50-plus yards in three of his last six games. Cooper would also be playing in a dome in the finale of these contests and he did go for 95 yards vs the Rams indoors back in Week 14.
I also doubt Dalton Kincaid will be a super popular pick at TE with some Bills stacks even choosing to leave him out—especially with Dallas Goedert/Sam LaPorta available to use from the Lions or Eagles on the NFC side. Additionally, both Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel would also be low-rostered options for anyone looking to potentially fade the Bills RB spot (sorry James Cook) and stack the passing game with Allen.
For Detroit, there is no harm in loading up on some chalk and just taking Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s likely still going to dominate touches with David Montgomery potentially not quite 100%. However, you could still stash Montgomery on your bench and play for the run-heavy approach in the Super Bowl vs a Bills defense that has struggled against the run in past weeks.
From a receiving standpoint, going for the all-or-nothing production of Jameson Williams over Amon-Ra St. Brown could also pay dividends.
The bottom line with these two teams is that their offenses are so deep that any Bills-Lions stack you make can be as chalky or contrarian as you like and have high-scoring potential.
Chiefs + Rams (+ Commanders)
The Lions are expected to be the most popular team drafted in the NFC, so if we’re fading them and targeting the Rams, then I also added in the Commanders as a kind of third mini-stack to consider using for a couple of one-off plays. That gives you maximum leverage against Detroit lineups, as a Commanders win would send Detroit players home and give Washington players another round.
As for the Rams, I expect the role players on them and Washington to be very low-owned options. While I could see either team pulling off a couple of massive upsets, it’s the Rams who have a far better shot at making the big game in my eyes. Their defense has really come on in the second half of the season and has a shot at shutting down the big two QBs in the NFC.
The Chiefs aren’t necessarily my pick to come out of the AFC, but if I’m stacking around a big underdog like the Rams then I think going with the AFC favorite in KC is prudent. They’re eight-point favorites vs the Texans in their next game and while their desire to spread the ball makes them hard to pin down fantasy-wise, it also opens up the opportunity to add some very low-owned players (see below) who can be big contributors in multiple rounds.
Ravens + Eagles (+ Texans)
The Ravens and Eagles will both be chalk to some extent so differentiating with some Texans in your lineup will give you a good shot at getting your Ravens/Eagles stacks through to the Big Game by gaining leverage over anyone who stacked Chiefs and Ravens in Round 2.
Again, it’s OK to draft a Chief or two with a Ravens stack as well, but if I’m picking the Ravens to get to the Super Bowl their easiest road is still not having to face Patrick Mahomes in Round 2. These kinds of builds will also be way more unique and give you a massive advantage should the Texans pull the upset.
As for who to target, neither of the Ravens or Eagles offer as many role players to choose from as the number one seeds do in their conference. I am OK with taking some of the Ravens' backups (see below) but the Eagles are difficult to get contrarian with. Any Eagles stack I’m making would include trying to get at least three of the big five of Hurts/Brown/Barkely/Goedert/Smith in a lineup and going from there.
Of their supporting players, I also think Kenneth Gainwell makes for a good differentiator. He’s the relief back but gets work in the passing game and around the goal line. On top of being great insurance/leverage off of any Saquon Barkley injury, he also carries one-off value, especially in a game where coaches have two weeks to plan and work in gimmicks for players like Gainwell.
Leverage Picks For Underdog Best Ball Divisional Round Tournaments
Quarterback
QBs should be a one-and-done proposition. Again, we need to draft as if we’re going to be right in our prognostication, and given that QB only has one starting slot (no Superflex) drafting a backup is handicapping ourselves against the one QB lineup, who will have an extra player on their benches for flex and positional purposes.
Running Back
I mention Williams not because I don’t think people will draft him, but because he will offer good leverage off the Saquon Barkley lineups—who will almost certainly choose to avoid him.
Essentially, if you’re not lucky enough to get Barkley then I would consider making Williams a target. He’s going to see a huge workload every week if the Rams advance and would have a great shot at outpacing Barkely (just like Josh Jacobs did last week) in that scenario.
If you’re loading up on Ravens and getting one or both of Lamar and Derrick Henry, then grabbing Hill at the tail end of drafts makes sense. He’s a great receiving back and gives you both insurance if you have Henry and a good correlation with Jackson given his receiving ability.
Additionally, if you grabbed Jackson but couldn’t get Henry with him then I would still be OK building Ravens lineups around Jackson and Hill. Any injury to Henry would make Hill a vital player for Baltimore and in a one-off situation, he can break off a big TD run or catch and outscore or match Henry.
Perine is a tail-end pick I would consider taking to get the uniqueness level up on my Chiefs stacks. Is it likely that he will end up outproducing both of the other KC RBs in all three games? No. But in a one-off scenario game in a dome, where the Chiefs might be forced into more passing-down scenarios it could happen.
Wide Receiver
While he’s not playing every snap, Cooper has still maintained a solid role in the Buffalo offense, posting double target shares in each of his last two games—including Week 17 vs the Jets where he caught all three of his targets for 56 yards (in a game also played in cold weather).
The Ravens' secondary has improved as the year has gone on but are still susceptible to big plays. They allowed another bigger body downfield receiver in George Pickens to go for five catches and 87 yards (and a TD) last week and also gave up big plays downfield to Van Jefferson and Mike Williams—whose only catch went for 37 yards.
I think Cooper could be a massive contributor for the Bills in any playoff run and may not be taken in a lot of drafts.
I'm not sure if Cooper Kupp is too dusty to get open anymore or if Sean McVay is just intent on using him as a decoy the rest of the year but his usage vs the Vikings was concerning.
In any case, Kupp not coming up big in the playoffs would mean that Demarcus Robinson would likely excel in any scenario where the Rams advance far. He hasn’t scored in a while but his seven receiving TDs on the season lead the team. If I’m stacking the Rams, Robinson is a name I want on my bench.
Tight End
With the Ravens down Zay Flowers, there is a good chance that Isaiah Likely becomes a vital part of the offense over the next few games. He posted a 21% target share last week with Flowers out and as of now, it doesn’t look great for Flowers to return next week vs the Bills.
There is some tail risk that Flowers comes back and Likely’s role is reduced but Likely also isn’t likely to be in every Ravens stack because Mark Andrews is viewed as the superior option. That may be true but Likely has outperformed Andrews in spots this season and certainly could over the next couple of games as well.
All things considered, I’m likely either stacking both TEs to make my Ravens and Jackson stacks more unique (if possible) or going with just Likely—who should cost far less draft capital.
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