What is Robust RB? And why you should avoid it.

What is Robust RB? 

Unlike other best ball draft strategies, such as Anchor RB or Zero RB, the Robust RB method asks you to expend as much early draft capital on the RB position as possible. Robust RB differs from other methods like Zero RB and Anchor RB in that its main goal is to try and capitalize on the massive upside that early-round RBs offer while ignoring the overall volatility of the position. 

What is the Robust RB fantasy football method?

At its core, the Robust RB draft strategy is one that is built around risking early-round draft capital and taking a voluminous approach in targeting the massive potential upside that early-round RBs can provide. The method specifically asks you to target RBs heavily in the first six rounds, sometimes expending as many as four of your first six picks in a draft on the position. 

Robust RB is also centralized around the idea of ignoring the volatility of the RB position, and the fact that RBs tend to have the highest injury rates in the NFL, and instead buy into the risk and the idea that winning a league without at least one true stud RB is a nearly impossible task. 

In many ways, the Robust RB strategy is as polarizing as its polar opposite, the Zero RB draft strategy. Robust RB is essentially asking us to be OK with gambling most of our early draft capital on the upside of a position that has a large bust rate. The thinking goes that while (season-to-season) RBs may be a more risky investment, the years when the early-round RBs do hit Robust RBers will have a massive advantage. 

If we look back to 2022 we can see that while some first round RBs had great seasons (Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry) others like Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris were big if not massive disappointments. 

Two of the top-five consensus RBs in the final 2022 ADP rankings (Ekeler and Henry) cracked the top five in the final standings of the position. However, consensus top five picks like Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor didn’t come close to meeting expectations.

Moreover, draft picks like Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard – who were all taken after the third round – way outperformed their ADPs from 2022, rewarding those who waited on RBs and instead took higher end WRs in the first few rounds. 

Overall, if we look back to what matters (the results) we can see that only one lineup from the top five finishers of Underdog’s 2022 Best Ball Mania III ended up taking more than two RBs before round three was over. 

Moreover, that lineup maxed out his exposure at just five RBs and took his final two RBs after round 12.  

When to use Robust RB?

The Robust draft strategy is best employed when there is a deep class of workhorse RBs available. Since the idea of this strategy centers around grabbing multiple (three or more) top-end RB talents in the first six rounds – and punishing those teams who decide to wait on RB – we need a large group of talent to choose from at the top to be able to execute our plan.

In fact, to truly capitalize on the Robust RB method, we need to be picking RBs who are capable of delivering “legendary” types of fantasy football seasons. Legendary seasons are those where an RB separates himself from the pack by such a wide amount that it’s extremely hard to win without him on your team. 

Pat Kerrane, formerly of NBC Sports Edge, noted the winning percentage that a legendary type of season from an RB can provide and how much more important they can be, on average, than a great season from a WR. 

However, he also noted the fact that these legendary seasons are beyond rare, with only seven noted over the past seven years (based on a 20% or better league win rate). 

If we look at the 2022 comparison between the top RBs and the WRs, we can see little difference in how the top scorers fared. Additionally, most of the WRs from the top 10 scorers last season were all taken in the third round or higher, meaning they performed up to their ADP – as opposed to the top 10 scorers at RB which included several RBs taken after round 6. 

This is an inherent problem with the robust draft strategy and really why it should only be employed in truly deep RB draft classes. If we are selecting three or more RBs in the first six or seven rounds, and end up reaching on lesser RBs after our first two picks, the results can be disastrous as we’ll be destroyed slowly by teams who went the more safe and stable WR route early in drafts. 

How to draft using the Robust RB strategy

Robust RB in best ball drafts

• Focus on grabbing as many top RBs as possible in the first six rounds – you want as many shots at “legendary upside” as possible.
  • Generally, this will mean taking three to four RBs in rounds 1-7
• For best ball purposes, you don’t want to overdraft the position (from a volume perspective), so maxing out at 5-6 RBs is a must.
• Avoid “settling” for mediocre RBs, you only want RBs with a path to a true workhorse role who could deliver that legendary upside if everything breaks his way.
• After you are done selecting your high-end RBs in the first 6-7 rounds, focus on the WR or TE position and wait to fill out your RB position until much later in the draft.v

As with all structural draft methods, you should be fluid when trying to implement a Robust RB strategy. We have already gone over the inherent faults in this strategy (the lack of true workhorse RBs in the NFL + the fact legendary seasons are very rare even among the top backs) so using it in every single draft you do is a great recipe to blow your fantasy season. 

If you are going to implement it, though, you’ll generally want to make the decision to draft around the Robust method as a reaction to certain RBs falling later in the draft than they should. 

Nov 21, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) runs the ball ahead of Pittsburgh Steelers inside linebacker Devin Bush (55) for a touchdown during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

For example, if you were able to pick up a solid first-round RB (in 2023 this might be Christian McCaffrey or Nick Chubb), and then have another RB who you have pegged for legendary upside (e.g. Tony Pollard) fall to you in the second round, it might behoove you to use a Robust strategy. 

You’d still need to ensure that whoever you pick at RB in the third or fourth round has good value/upside attached, as well, but with other methods like Zero RB and Anchor RB gaining more mainstream acceptance, using a Robust RB strategy could (in theory) be a good way to counteract those methods. 

In 2023 a modified version of the Robust RB strategy may even prove to be a more correct one to employ than in years past. As of now, ADPs on the top WRs are out of control with eight receivers now having first round ADPs on Underdog Fantasy as of writing. 

Hence, with everyone bypassing the elite RBs early on, a Robust draft strategy is one way to counter the WR avalanche trend and put together a more contrarian lineup. 

In-season management for Robust RB teams

If you have employed a Robust draft method for your season-long redraft team then there are a couple of things to keep in mind when managing in-season. 

• Your Waiver Wire focus should be on attempting to fortify your WR or TE positions.
  • Since you’ve avoided many of the elite WRs at the start of your draft, using extra roster spots on potential upside plays at receivers is a good way to rebalance your team.
    • In many ways we’re acting in the extreme opposite of a Zero RB team in that we’re addressing WR and potentially TE with quantity over quality.
• For redraft teams, you should be wary of the depth chart behind your stud RB.
  • Looking to the waiver wire in case there’s a high-end back available to one of your studs should be a focus.
  • Also, if it ever looks like your early-round RB is starting to lose some snaps or volume, make sure you pick up whichever back looks best positioned to benefit from a potential injury.

Robust RB vs Hyperfragile RB

The Robust RB draft strategy doesn’t have a ton in common with many of the more advanced draft structures for best ball or redraft leagues. However, it does carry some in common with an increasingly popular best ball method of drafting, the hyperfragile RB method.

When using the Hyperfragile RB method, your focus is also on accumulating RBs early on. With the hyperfragile method, your goal will be to load up early on two high-end RBs, with legendary season potential. This will almost always mean taking RBs with your first and second-round picks. The difference with Hyperfragile RB, though – and why it differs from the Robust RB strategy – is that after you have taken RBs with your first two picks, you then transfer back your focus to receivers (WR or TE) in rounds 3-7. 

Hyperfragile also sees you limit the RBs on your team to five max (in most cases) and in best ball, the optimal RB allocation can even be as low as four (for your entire team). The idea in a hyperfragile RB build is to give yourself two chances at hitting on a legendary RB but also ensure that you are still avoiding the RB dead-zone in rounds three through seven. While a Robust RB method would have you drafting RBs in those rounds, a hyperfragile method sees you shift your focus back to loading up on elite talent at WR and TE. 

One thing to note about Robust and Hyperfragile drafting methods is that in seasons when the vast majority of the top RBs underperform (or get injured) they will underperform.  

While the Robust and hyperfragile methods do have differing principles in how to address the mid-rounds (and WR position), they are still both reliant on higher-end RBs hitting on top-end seasons. Hence, we can often expect both of the success rates for these draft strategies to move in somewhat similar patterns based on the overall success rate of the top-drafted and projected RBs in the league each year.

Finally, while the Robust RB method may never be a long-term winner in best ball formats (just because of how much it emphasizes RBs early) hyperfragile has been proven to have success in large field best ball formats, in previous years. 

Hence, if you’re bullish on multiple top-RBs going into a season, or if you think the valuations on the top RBs have gotten too soft, then it may be better to try to employ more of the principles from hyperfragile into your draft than go strictly with a Robust RB strategy.

Robust RB in best ball for 2023

As mentioned above, the Robust RB method had mixed results for 2022. However, it should be noted that while last year was not a banner one for Robust drafters, it is certainly possible we see some kind of positive regression for a Robust RB method in 2023. 

Workhorse RBs are somewhat of a dying breed in the NFL but current valuations for workhorse RBs are also at the lowest they have been in years. As outlined in the Anchor RB strategy article, there are numerous top RBs available throughout rounds 2-6, several of whom would have been going one to two rounds higher in years past. 

The Boom/Bust Tier (ADP: 17-27)

• Jonathan Taylor
• Saquon Barkley
• Tony Pollard
• Derrick Henry
• Rhamondre Stevenson

The Dead-zone (ADP: 30-60)

• Josh Jacobs
• Breece Hall
• Travis Etienne
• Najee Harris
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Joe Mixon
• Kenneth Walker
• Aaron Jones
• JK Dobbins

Injury luck or team dynamics that went against the top RBs in 2021 and 2022, could easily swing the other way in 2023 and lead to multiple legendary types of season from the 2023 RBs.

If that does happen then the people who made a few contrarian best ball lineups using a Robust RB strategy could be in for a profitable run in some of the bigger best ball tournaments around the industry.  

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