2023 Arizona Cardinals Betting Preview

Last year the Arizona Cardinals entered the season fresh off an 11-6 campaign that saw GM Steve Keim, HC Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray all get long-term extensions.

Even with the weird “no video game” clause in Murray’s contract, the future of the franchise looked bright — and then the team went 4-13 and lost its final seven games in a season that was plagued by scandal (two offensive position coaches left the team midseason because of incidents of aggression toward women).

The last month of the season was especially painful. On Dec. 14 — two days after Murray was carted off the field in Week 14 with a non-contact ACL tear — he was placed on season-ending IR and Keim took an indefinite leave of absence. And then on Jan. 9 — one day after the season finale, with Murray’s 2023 availability uncertain — Keim resigned and Kingsbury was fired.

And this year might not be any better on the field or off it: In April, owner Michael Bidwell was accused of serious workplace transgressions.

This year — with or without Murray — the Cardinals have one unspoken but indisputable goal: Become the phoenix. Burn it all down… and then rise from the ashes in 2024.

In this 2023 Cardinals preview we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets. 

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Cardinals preview. 

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 27. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 27. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 27.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 27.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 27.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Monti Ossenfort
• Head Coach: Jonathan Gannon
• Team Power Rating: -6
• Team Power Ranking: No. 32
• Coach Ranking: No. 32

Ossenfort joined the Cardinals as GM in January, and I’ve been impressed with what we’ve seen so far. He has verified “football guy” credentials. The course he has taken to this point is the traditional one.

• Intern: 2021 Vikings
• Pro Personnel Intern: 2002 Texans
• Personnel Assistant: 2003 Patriots
• Pro and College Scouting Assistant: 2004 Texans
• College Scout: 2005 Texans
• Area Scout: 2006-08 Patriots
• National Scout: 2009-10 Patriots
• Assistant Director of College Scouting: 2011-13 Patriots
• Director of College Scouting: 2014-19 Patriots
• Director of Player Personnel: 2020-22 Titans
• GM: 2023 Cardinals

Ossenfort has put in his time as an evaluator of talent. He has done the film-grinding work of a scout.

But he’s not just a personnel guy. He’s also a business guy. A numbers guy. As an undergraduate, he earned a degree in economics and management (2000), which he followed up with a master’s degree in business administration and sports management (2002).

Ossenfort isn’t just a talent evaluator. He’s also a strategic thinker.

We can see that in the way that he has managed the team this offseason: He’s clearing the ledger. He let his two big-name free agents (EDGE Zach Allen and CB Byron Murphy) sign elsewhere for relatively large deals. He released WR DeAndre Hopkins in May. And of the free agents he did sign (whether retained or new), not one of them got a deal for more than two years or $10M in total.

He’s making sure that the team doesn’t carry any onerous contracts into the future — because the future is what matters.

In the draft, Ossenfort traded down — most notably from No. 3 — to acquire 2024 picks. And within the past week he traded away FS Isaiah Simmons and OT Josh Jones for more 2024 picks.

He could own the board next year.

And it’s not as if he punted on the 2023 draft: He still got potential difference makers in OT Paris Johnson (No. 6), EDGE B.J. Ojulari (No. 41) and WR Michael Wilson (No. 94). He just traded down to get them.

On top of that, the team is being “diligent” in not rushing Murray back from injury. On the surface — and in reality — that’s the responsible thing to do. 

The Cardinals shouldn’t play him before he’s ready, and even when he thinks he’s ready they should be sure to save him from himself and insist that he’s at 100% ability before returning to action. There’s virtue in moving slowly in the short term so that the team doesn’t jeopardize Murray’s long-term prospects.

But there’s also some enlightened skullduggery in it. The longer Murray is off the field, the greater the odds are that the Cardinals lose and thus end up with a premium pick — perhaps No. 1 overall. And the team is benefitted none by putting Murray on the field before he’s ready… because that would probably hurt his trade value if (or when) the Cardinals decide to offload what remains of the five-year $230.5M contract he signed last offseason. 

Everything the Cardinals have done under Ossenfort this offseason indicates that they are playing not for this year but for next year and beyond — and that makes sense.

Hiring Gannon, though… I’m not going to say it doesn’t make sense. But it could go poorly.

This guy could have problems connecting with players.

It’s not just that he’s awkward. (And I’m saying that as someone who’s awkward.) He’s skin-crawlingly awkward. 

On top of that, he’s dishonest. (And I’m saying that as someone who’s dishonest, so you can trust me.) What’s worse, he’s incompetently dishonest.

If you’re going to lie, at least two key conditions should be satisfied.

1. You need to lie. (The truth won’t suffice and in fact should be avoided.)
2. You are good at lying. (You can tell a mistruth without getting caught.)

This offseason, Gannon lied when he didn’t need to, and he was quickly called out for his lie.

But more important than all of this is the fact that Gannon’s defense is kind of “meh.” 

He has had a variety of jobs across his 15.5 years in the league.

• Quality Control Coach: 2007 Falcons, 2012-13 Titans
• College Scout: 2009 Rams
• Pro Scout: 2010-11 Rams
• assistant DBs Coach: 2014-17 Vikings
• DBs Coach: 2018-20 Colts
• DC: 2021-22 Eagles
• HC: 2023 Cardinals

But he was a coordinator for only two seasons before getting the HC gig, and it’s hard to say that Gannon made a difference to the defense. In his first year, the defense was No. 18 in scoring. In his second season — when the offense drastically improved and was better able to control the ball, and when the defense was bolstered by the return of EDGE Brandon Graham and the addition of EDGEs Haason Reddick and Robert Quinn, DTs Ndamukong Suh, Linval Joseph and Jordan Davis, LB Kyzir White, CB James Bradberry and SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson — the defense improved to No. 8 in scoring.

A couple of thoughts:

1. The infusion of talent probably had more to do with the defensive improvement than Gannon, because it’s not as if he made large adjustments to the scheme: His players merely executed better and were presented with more advantageous situations on account of their offense.
2. A defense that loaded with talent should probably be better than No. 8 in scoring.

The Eagles pass defense was No. 1 last year with 70 sacks and 5.8 adjusted yards per attempt. The defense was unquestionably good. But it also faced an easy schedule of opposing QBs and was exposed in every game it played against a top-five offense with its starting QB.

• Lions (Week 1): 35 points
• Cowboys (Week 16): 40 points
• Chiefs (Super Bowl): 38 points

The Eagles had a 10-point lead at halftime in the Super Bowl — and then the Chiefs scored on all of their drives in the second half: Three touchdowns followed by a game-winning field goal with eight seconds left on the clock.

That’s the sign of a DC who’s not maximizing his players and not adjusting his scheme, a guy who’s maybe a passable practitioner but not at all an intelligent innovator. 

It’s great that Gannon’s defense can be one of the best in the league when he has a stacked unit and is facing non-elite offenses. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they’re not resplendent with high-end defensive depth, and if they ever hope to go far in the playoffs they’ll probably need to beat some elite offenses.

Being a good DC doesn’t equate to being a good HC — and I’m skeptical that Gannon was a good DC.

To wrap this up, it’s almost as if owner Michael Bidwill looked at former HC Kliff Kingsbury and then told Ossenfort: “Give me the opposite of a stylish blond-headed college offense shark.”

To which Ossenfort said: “So we’re looking for a nerdy brown-haired NFL defense fish… I know just the guy.”

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Drew Petzing
• Offensive Playcaller: Drew Petzing
• QBs Coach: Israel Woolfork
• RBs Coach: Autry Denson
• WRs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Drew Terrell
• TEs Coach: Ben Steele
• OL Coach: Klayton Adams
• Notable Turnover: HC/Playcaller Kliff Kingsbury (USC), Co-Pass Game Coordinator Spencer Whipple (demoted to Pass Game Specialist), Co-Pass Game Coordinator/QBs Coach Cameron Turner (Colts), RBs Coach James Saxon (free agent, resigned in October), Assoc. HC/WRs Coach Shawn Jefferson (Panthers), TEs Coach Steve Heiden (Lions), Run Game Coordinator/OL Coach Sean Kugler (free agent, fired in November)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Petzing joins the Cardinals as Gannon’s OC/playcaller after the two worked together on the 2014-17 Vikings, where Petzing was an offensive assistant (2014) and then assistant WRs coach (2015-17) before working his way up to assistant QBs coach (2018) and WRs coach (2019).

In 2020, he followed Vikings OC-turned-Browns HC Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland, where Petzing’s NFL career started in 2013 as an intern under OC Norv Turner, who took him to Minnesota the following year. In his second stint with the Browns, Petzing was the TEs coach for two years (2020-21) and then the QBs coach for one final season (2022) before reuniting with Gannon in Arizona.

Petzing has never been an OC or playcaller at any level, but he has complete control of the offense given that Gannon is a defensive HC. I assume that Petzing’s system will resemble Stefanski’s from the 2019 Vikings and 2020-22 Browns, but that’s just an educated guess. 

Dec 12, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) against the New England Patriots at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Woolfork has followed Petzing from the Browns, where he was a coaching fellow for two years and functioned first in an assistant TE coach (2021) and then assistant QBs coach (2022). Before his time with the Browns, Woolfork was a graduate assistant (2013-14), RBs coach (2015-17) and finally WRs coach (2018-21) at Miami (OH).

Denson played RB in the NFL and CFL for five years (1999-2002, 2004) and then coached in the college ranks for 12 years (2011-22) — primarily as an RBs coach — before joining the Cardinals this offseason.

He was at Miami (OH) in 2004 when Woolfork was there as an assistant, and when Denson left to be the Notre Dame RBs coach in 2005 it was Woolfork who replaced him. He was most recently the HC of Charleston Southern (2019-22), where he had a 14-22 record.

Terrell joins the Cardinals after five NFL seasons with the Panthers (2018-19 quality control) and Commanders (2020 assistant WRs coach, 2021-22 WRs coach), where he worked with Norv Turner (2018-19 OC) and Scott Turner (2018-19 QBs coach, 2020-22 OC), both of whom served on the 2014-16 Vikings with Petzing and Gannon.

With the success Terrell had last year with WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, he was able to level up to passing game coordinator in the transition to Arizona. 

Steele bounced around NFL offseason rosters and practice squads for seven years (2001-07) before transitioning from TE to coaching. He has been a lower-level assistant for most of his career but has twice been an NFL TEs coach (2017-18 Buccaneers, 2020 Falcons). Most recently, Steele was an assistant OL coach (2021 Vikings, 2022 Broncos) before joining the Cardinals.

Adams is a longtime college OL/TEs coach who jumped to the NFL with the Colts, where he was the assistant OL coach (2019-20) and then TEs coach (2021-22).  

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Nick Rallis
• DL Coach: Derrick LeBlanc
• Outside LBs Coach: Rob Rodriguez
• LBs Coach: Sam Siefkes
• DBs Coach: Patrick Toney
• CBs Coach: Ryan Smith
• Notable Turnover: DC Vance Joseph (Broncos), DL Coach Matt Burke (Texans), Outside LBs Coach Charlie Bullen (Univ. of Illinois), LBs Coach Billy Davis (free agent), DBs Coach Marcus Robertson (Saints), CBs Coach Greg Williams (Packers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Rallis has worked under Gannon for the past half decade (2018-19 Vikings quality control, 2020 Vikings assistant LBs coach, 2021-22 LBs coach). He has never called plays before and is just 30 years old, but Gannon is entrusting him to run the defense. If you see a photo of him, you might think he looks like a young Mike Vrabel, but I think he looks like a scapegoat.

LeBlanc is a longtime college coach (most recently 2017-19 Kentucky and 2020 Arkansas) who jumped to the NFL last year as the assistant DL coach for the Dolphins.

Rodriguez worked with Gannon on the Vikings (2015-17), where he was the assistant DL coach for five years (2015-19) before doing three seasons (2020-22) as the DL coach for nearby Arizona State.

Siefkes is a small-school DC/LBs coach (2018-20 Wofford, 2016-17 UW-Platteville) who jumped to the NFL in 2021 with the Vikings, where he did one year as a quality control coach and then a second year as assistant LBs coach.

Toney is a college DC/safeties coach (most recently 2022 Florida and 2020-21 Louisiana) now getting his shot at the NFL. Similarly, Smith is a college CBs coach (most recently 2022 Northwestern and 2020-21 Virginia Tech) who is leveling up. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Assistant HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Jeff Rodgers
• Assistant Special Teams Coach: Sam Sewell
• Notable Turnover: assistant ST Coach Devin Fitzsimmons (Panthers)

Rodgers joined the Cardinals in 2018 as coordinator under HC Steve Wilks, got the assistant HC title in 2019 under Kingsbury and retained his job this offseason with the transition to Gannon.

He has been in the NFL for 19 of the past 20 years and a coordinator for the past 13 years (2010 Panthers, 2011-14 Broncos, 2015-17 Bears, 2018-22 Cardinals). Last year the Cardinals were No. 8 with a 90.0 PFF special teams grade.

Sewell joins the Cardinals this year after three stints as a coordinator in the college ranks (2022 Eastern Michigan, 2015-16 Colorado State-Pueblo, 2013-14 McKendree).

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Joshua Dobbs
• Backups: Clayton Tune, David Blough
• Injured: Kyler Murray (knee)
• Notable Turnover: Colt McCoy (free agent) and Trace McSorley (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Kyler Murray is opening the season on the PUP as he recovers from his 2022 ACL tear, so he’ll be out for at least the first four weeks, and the Cardinals just cut McCoy even though he was the presumed Week 1 starter for the entirety of the offseason.

Why was Colt McCoy cut? The tank, presumably. Then again…

With McCoy gone, Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune is likely to start Week 1, but Gannon has already said that he won’t disclose the starter for the sake of “competitive advantage.” OK. I’m sure that makes a difference.

The team acquired Dobbs from the Browns in late August, and he has a real chance to start in Week 1. A 28-year-old backup journeyman, Dobbs has three main virtues.

1. He knows Petzing’s offense from his time with the Browns last year, when he was a backup behind fill-in starter Jacoby Brissett.
2. He’s smart. He graduated from Tennessee with a degree in aerospace engineering and 4.0 grade point average. He’s an asset in the QBs room.
3. He’s bad. He has only two starts and 4.2 adjusted yards per attempt for his career. Despite being a veteran, he won’t hinder the team’s “rebuilding” effort.

But Tune will also get starts this year, perhaps as early as Week 1.

A 24-year-old fifth-round rookie, Tune started four seasons at University of Houston and improved each year, passing for 4,074 yards and 40 touchdowns (to 10 interceptions) with an 8.9 AY/A as a senior and adding 128-544-5 rushing.

With his athleticism (4.64-second 40-yard dash, 6.89-second three-cone), Tune has legitimate dual-threat potential as a developmental project — but he could struggle mightily as a rookie.

David Blough is a 28-year-old depth journeyman who is 0-7 with a 4.8 AY/A for his career. He has excellent tanking potential as the No. 3 QB.

Running Backs

• Starter: James Conner
• Backups: Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement
• Injured: Marlon Mack (Achilles)
• Notable Turnover: Eno Benjamin (Saints) and Darrel Williams (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

James Conner is a 28-year-old two-time Pro Bowler who has 2,209 yards and 26 touchdowns since joining the Cardinals in 2021 and 5,330 yards and 52 touchdowns since his breakout season in 2018.

With the size to grind between the tackles (6-foot-1 and 233 pounds) and the pass-catching ability to be a true receiving asset (7.0 yards per target with the Cardinals), Conner is a true three-down back who often seems to be underappreciated.

He has missed between two and six games each season of his career, but when healthy he brings an undeniable sheen of professionalism to the backfield.

Keaontay Ingram is a second-year sixth-rounder who was productive in college (1,067 yards, five touchdowns in 10 games in final season at USC) and has good athleticism (4.53-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 221 pounds), but as a rookie he was uncommonly terrible (2.2 yards per carry, 4.2 yards per target, albeit on limited usage).

Corey Clement is a 28-year-old depth option who has 378 yards and three touchdowns over the past four years, although he was a special teams contributor for the Cardinals last season. 

Projections as of Aug. 28.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Michael Wilson
• WR Backups: Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal
• TE Starter: Zach Ertz
• TE Backup: Trey McBride, Geoff Swaim, Noah Togiai
• Notable Turnover: WRs DeAndre Hopkins (Titans), A.J. Green (retired) and Robbie Chosen (formerly “Robbie Anderson.” Dolphins), TEs Maxx Williams (free agent) and Stephen Anderson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Marquise Brown is a 2019 first-round speedster whom the Cardinals acquired from the Ravens in last year’s draft. In 2021, he had a career-best 91-1,008-6 receiving on 146 targets, and last year he had a proportionally similar 50-553-3 receiving on 77 targets in eight games without Hopkins.

Brown is a limited receiver, but he’s someone whose playmaking ability defenses must respect.

Rondale Moore is a 2021 second-rounder who dominated as an 18-year-old true freshman at Purdue (114-1,258-12 receiving, 21-213-2 receiving) and impressed at his pro day.  

But he has been a low-aDOT receiver (5.5 yards last year) and low-impact player (920 yards, two touchdowns for career) through two seasons.

Michael Wilson is a four-star third-round rookie who played only 14 games in his final three seasons at Stanford because of injuries, but in his sophomore season he led the team with 56-672-5 receiving. He dominated at the Senior Bowl, even drawing Davante Adams comparisons from event organizers.

And in his pre-draft workouts he exhibited an Adams-like physical profile.

• Michael Wilson: 6-foot-2 and 213 pounds | 4.58-second 40-yard | 6.81-second three-cone
• Davante Adams: 6-foot-1 and 212 pounds | 4.56-second 40-yard | 6.82-second three-cone

Although Wilson’s not fast, he has great agility, which is readily seen in his releases and routes. He’s unlikely to turn into Adams, but he has upside and played exclusively with the starters in the preseason.

Greg Dortch is a 2019 UDFA slot man who joined the Cardinals in 2021 and served as the team’s primary returner in 2022 while confounding his way to 511 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage on 64 targets and seven carries. He has a chance to steal the starting slot job if Moore underperforms.

Zach Pascal is a 28-year-old depth receiver who does nothing well, but does everything well enough. He has inside/outside versatility and acceptable production (7.4 yards per target), and last year — with Gannon’s Eagles — he was something of an ace with six special teams tackles. 

Zach Ertz is a 32-year-old three-time Pro Bowler who briefly overlapped with Gannon on the Eagles in 2021 before they traded him to the Cardinals. Despite missing seven games last year because of a season-ending ACL tear, Ertz has been productive over the past two years (121-1,169-9 receiving), and the team has activated from PUP so he looks likely to play in Week 1.

Trey McBride is a 2022 second-rounder who was an All-American Mackey Award winner as a senior with 90-1,121-1 receiving (plus a nice 69-yard touchdown run) — but he was woeful as a rookie with 29-265-1 receiving and a 46.3 PFF run blocking grade.

Geoff Swaim is a 29-year-old inline blocking specialist with 58 yards receiving last year for the Titans. Togiai is a 2020 UDFA developmental project who played 34 snaps over the past two years for the Eagles. 

Projections as of Aug. 28.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT D.J. Humphries, LG Elijah Wilkinson, C Hjalte Froholdt, RG Will Hernandez, RT Paris Johnson
• Backups: OT Kelvin Beachum, T/G Dennis Daley, C/G Jon Gaines, OG Marquis Hayes
• Injured: C Pat Elflein (undisclosed)
• Notable Turnover: C Rodney Hudson (free agent), LG Justin Pugh (free agent), C/G Billy Price (Saints), G/C Sean Harlow (Giants), OG Max Garcia (Saints), T/G Josh Jones (Texans) and G/Ts Cody Ford (Bengals) and Rashaad Coward (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Humphries is a 29-year-old franchise blindside protector who has been with the Cardinals since his 2015 rookie campaign. He missed the second half of 2022 but made his first Pro Bowl in 2021 and is still an above-average producer in both phases.

Wilkinson is a 28-year-old utility journeyman now on his fourth team since 2020. Last year with the Falcons — his first at LG — Wilkinson had maybe the best season of his career (64.3 PFF grade on 574 snaps).

Froholdt is a 2019 fourth-rounder who played little in his first two years, but he caught on with the Browns in 2021 and started six games (four at C, two at RG) for them last season before following new OC Drew Petzing to the Cardinals.

Hernandez is a 2018 second-rounder who signed with the team last offseason after four years with the Giants. Although he has a nice 69 career starts, Hernandez is an average-at-best interior player (65.4 PFF grade last year).

Johnson is the No. 6 pick of the 2023 draft. He entered college as a five-star recruit and started 26 games as a sophomore (RG) and junior (LT) before declaring early for the draft. Johnson’s upside is the sky, but he gets by more on traits than technique at this stage, and that might not fly in the NFL.

Beachum is a 34-year-old old hand with 147 starts for his career and 48 starts for the Cardinals since joining the team in 2020. Not since his 2012 rookie year has Beachum had a PFF pass blocking grade lower than 69. The addition of Johnson pushes Beachum to the sideline and makes him one of the league’s best swing tackles, but the start five would likely be stronger with Beachum at his customary RT spot and Johnson inside at one of the OG spots.

Daley is a 27-year-old offseason addition who had a career-best 942 snaps and career-worst 46.1 PFF grade last year with the Titans. He has versatility, but that’s about it.

Gaines is a fourth-round rookie who’s now especially important as a backup with Elflein on IR. Mostly an RG in college, he did get starts at C and RT and has played exclusively at C in the preseason. He’s a better run blocker than pass protector.

Hayes is a four-star 2022 seventh-round project who missed last year on IR but has played plenty in the preseason at both guard spots. His physical talent is unquestioned but also unbacked by fundamentals.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Zaven Collins, BJ Ojulari
• EDGE Backups: Myjai Sanders, Victor Dimukeje, Cameron Thomas, Dennis Gardeck
• DT Starters: Leki Fotu, Rashard Lawrence
• DT Backups: Jonathan Ledbetter, Kevin Strong, L.J. Collier, Carlos Watkins, Dante Stills
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Markus Golden (Steelers), EDGE/DTs Zach Allen (Broncos) and J.J. Watt (retired), DTs Michael Dogbe (Jaguars)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Collins is a 2021 first-round off-ball linebacker who’s shifting to edge this year. As a senior, Collins was a unanimous All-American winner of the Nagurski Trophy and Bednarik and Lombardi Awards, but he has been merely OK (not great) in the NFL, the team needs impact edge defenders after watching Golden, Allen and Watt leave this offseason, and Collins has the physical profile (4.65-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 259 pounds) to play the position.

Ojulari is a 21-year-old four-star second-round rookie who started all three years at LSU, where he put up a team-high 12.5 sacks across his sophomore and junior seasons. With his size (6-foot-2 and 248 pounds), he’s more of a pass rusher than run defender.

Sanders is a 2022 third-rounder who was poor as a rookie (53.5 PFF grade) and has missed much of training camp with a minor-ish hand injury, so there’s some beat reporter buzz that he could be cut — but it’s hard to imagine a top-100 pick losing his roster spot after just one year. Dimukeje is a 2021 sixth-rounder with zero sacks on 297 defensive snaps for his career — but he’s a good special teamer.

Thomas is a 2022 third-rounder who flashed as a rookie with 19 pressures on 155 pass rushes. Gardeck is a 2018 UDFA who gets after the QB as a situational edge rusher (eight sacks, 42 pressures on 264 opportunities over the past three years) and stands out on special teams (34 tackles for the Cardinals over the past half decade). 

Fotu and Lawrence are both 2020 fourth-rounders. Fotu is yet to have a PFF run defense grade of even 40. Lawrence is solid against the run but has zero career sacks and just nine pressures.

Ledbetter and Strong are both 2019 UDFAs. Ledbetter has played 285 snaps and earned PFF grades of 36.1 and 43.4 since joining the Cardinals two years ago.

Strong is an offseason addition with two starts and one sack in four years.

Collier joins the Cardinals after four disheartening seasons with the Seahawks, who drafted him in Round 1 in 2019, gave him 16 starts in 2020 and then were like “Nah, we’re good” in 2021-22.

Watkins is a 29-year-old veteran who has started 36 games for the Texans (2017-20) and Cowboys (2021-22) over the past six years and given them acceptably league-average backup play.

Stills is a sixth-round rookie who racked up 21.5 sacks and 47.5 tackles for loss in his four years as a core contributor at West Virginia, but he might lack the size ( 6-foot-3 and 286 pounds) to anchor against the run and the athleticism (4.85-second 40-yard dash) to rush the passer in the NFL.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Kyzir White, Krys Barnes
• Backups: Owen Pappoe, Josh Woods, Ezekiel Turner
• Notable Turnover: Ben Niemann (Titans) and Tanner Vallejo (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

White is a 2018 fourth-rounder who started his career with the Chargers, played on a one-year “prove it” deal last season with the Eagles and then followed Gannon to the Cardinals. He’s a league-average three-phase backer with just one PFF defense grade below 65.

Barnes is a 2020 UDFA who started 24 games for the Packers over the past three years but was bad in coverage and worse in run defense.

Pappoe is a five-star fifth-round rookie who led Auburn with 91 tackles as a senior and tested well at the combine (4.39-second 40-yard dash), but he might not have the size (6-foot and 225 pounds) to be an every-down player in the NFL.

Woods and Turner are both 2018 UDFA aces. Last year, Woods had a team-high 12 tackles on special teams for the Lions while Turner was No. 2 on the Cardinals in special teams snaps (325) and No. 3 in tackles (five).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Marco Wilson, Kei'Trel Clark, Jalen Thompson
• CB Backups: Antonio Hamilton, Christian Matthew
• S Starters: Budda Baker, Andre Chachere
• S Backup: Jovante Moffatt
• Injured: CBs Garrett Williams (knee) and Rashad Fenton (undisclosed)
• Notable Turnover: CBs Byron Murphy (Vikings), Jace Whittaker (Commanders) and Trayvon Mullen (free agent), CB/S Isaiah Simmons (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Wilson is a 2021 fourth-rounder who has allowed a 66.7% completion rate despite playing primarily on the perimeter. Clark is a sixth-round rookie who — following injuries to Williams and Fenton — seems likely to see significant playing time: He started opposite Wilson in Week 2 of the preseason and then rested with the starters in Week 3. He’s fast (4.42-second 40-yard dash) but undersized (5-foot-10 and 181 pounds) for the perimeter and lacking the technique for the slot.

Thompson is a 2019 fifth-rounder who has started 42 games at safety for the Cardinals and is still listed at safety, but he played primarily at slot corner in Weeks 1-2 of the preseason and is the leading candidate to replace the positionless Simmons, who was just recently traded. An average-at-worst pass defender, Thompson could be the team’s best corner when lined up at nickel.

Hamilton is a 30-year-old veteran who has made seven fill-in starts since joining the Cardinals in 2021. He has inside/outside versatility — he played exclusively in the slot in Week 2 of the preseason — and he didn’t play in Week 3, so he could play in the slot if the team decides to keep Thompson at FS.

Matthew is a 2022 seventh-rounder who had a 48.7 PFF coverage grade as a rookie on 237 snaps.

Baker is a hard-nosed 27-year-old five-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro who has been with the Cardinals since his 2017 rookie campaign. If the team wanted to trade him, it could — but he’s still young enough to be a foundational piece for Gannon’s under-construction unit.

While he can line up across the formation, he’s best in the box on account of his run defense (80.2 PFF grade last year).

Chachere is a 2018 UDFA who was on the Cardinals in 2019 and then with Gannon on the 2020 Colts and 2021-22 Eagles as a depth safety. He’s very much #notgood (32.0 and 35.0 PFF grades over the past two years), but his familiarity with Gannon’s system could give him extended playing time at FS if the team uses Thompson in the slot.

Moffatt is a 2020 UDFA who has played primarily on special teams for the Browns (2020-21) and Falcons (2022) to this point, but the Cardinals have used him as the backup to Baker in the preseason, so he could make the roster and see some regular playing time.

Specialists

• Kicker: Matt Prater
• Punter: Nolan Cooney
• Holder: Nolan Cooney
• Long Snapper: Aaron Brewer
• Kick Returner: Greg Dortch
• Punt Returner: Greg Dortch
• Injured: LS Matt Hembrough (back)
• Notable Turnover: P Andy Lee (free agent)

Prater is a 39-year-old two-time Pro Bowler who joined the Cardinals in 2021. He’s not an overly accurate kicker (83.3% field goal rate for his career, 83.9% over the past two years), but he still has plenty of leg (12-of-16 converting attempts of 50-plus yards with the Cardinals). Cooney is a 2021 UDFA who has never punted in a regular season game.

Brewer is a 33-year-old long snapper who was on the 2013 Broncos with Prater and then joined the Cardinals in 2016. He probably wasn’t going to lose his roster spot to UDFA rookie Hembrough anyway, but he’s safe now with Hembrough on IR.

Dortch has averaged 6.8 yards per punt return and 19.8 yards per kick return in his two seasons with the Cardinals. Last year, the league averages were 8.9 and 22.8.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Cardinals’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 21
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 4-9
• Opponents: at SF, vs. CIN, at LAR, at SEA, vs. BAL, at CLE 

The Cardinals have a harder-than-average schedule with a bye that literally couldn’t be any later (Week 14) and are underdogs in every game. After Week 3, they don’t have any back-to-back home games for the rest of the year, and that’s when the killer stretch starts.

In Weeks 4-9, they have two conjoined three-of-four away stretches (A-H-A-A-H-A). In the two home games, they host the Bengals and Ravens. In the four road games, they play all three divisional opponents and then the Browns in Cleveland, right when the weather is starting to turn cold. In all but one of these games, the Cardinals are underdogs of at least six points.

They could easily go 0-6 in this stretch and even 0-9 to open the year.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Cardinals.

• Owner Michael Bidwell has more serious allegations of workplace misconduct pop up early in the year, and it becomes clear that the league will eventually force him to sell the team. In anticipation of that, Bidwill instructs his GM to focus less on winning later and more on winning immediately.
• GM Monti Ossenfort makes in-season personnel moves — against his better judgment — to maximize the team’s odds of winning games this year.
• HC Jonathan Gannon looks lost as the team starts out 0-9.
• OC Drew Petzing refuses to play rookie QB Clayton Tune because the veteran QBs give the team a better chance to compete each week.
• DC Nick Rallis is relieved of playcalling duties after Week 10. 
• QB Joshua Dobbs holds the starting job until the Week 14 bye, after which QB Kyler Murray returns… and then reinjures his knee.
• RB James Conner suffers a high-ankle injury in Week 3 that causes him to miss three games and hinders him until the final month of the season.
• WR Marquise Brown sabotages his potential trade value with a series of unfathomable drops, and WRs Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson are benched following a Week 4 shutout.
• TEs Zach Ertz and Trey McBride battle for playing time, and Ertz overwhelming wins.
• LG Elijah Wilkinson and C Hjalte Froholdt form an exploitable interior duo in their first year with the team, and RT Paris Johnson struggles at a position he has never played.
• EDGE Zaven Collins returns to off-ball LB after he gets zero sacks in the first half of the season.
• The interior DL plays to its talent. In a bad way.
• LB Krys Barnes is benched when Collins returns to LB.
• CBs Marco Wilson and Kei'Trel Clark create the league’s worst perimeter pair.
• SS Budda Baker gets into a sideline yelling match with Gannon in the fourth quarter of a Week 11 road loss to the Texans.
• Cardinals go 4-13 but miss out on the No. 1 pick. The Texans surprise at 7-10, so their first-rounder is outside the top 10. For the sake of continuity, Bidwell wants to keep Gannon, who “proved himself” by going .500 after the team’s 0-9 start. Former HC (and current USC QBs coach) Kliff Kingsbury helps QB Caleb Williams win his second Heisman Trophy, and he goes No. 1 in the draft. QB Drake Maye and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. decide to return to school for their senior seasons because of lucrative NIL deals, and the Cardinals are left with a No. 2 pick that they don’t like and that no other team wants to trade up for.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Cardinals.

• Owner Michael Bidwell publicly defends his GM when asked about the team’s personnel moves: “We’re not tanking. We’re looking to build a team that can compete today and tomorrow and years after that.”
• GM Monti Ossenfort makes a series of in-season moves that maximize that team’s odds of losing this year but winning next year.
• HC Jonathan Gannon spurs the team to a never-ending series of close losses and tells the media after the team’s 0-9 start: “We’re building muscle. We’re biting off more than we can chew — but we’re chewing it, and one of these days we’re gonna learn how to swallow the whole cow with one bite.” The phrase “swallow the whole cow” instantly becomes a social media meme, and some players wear t-shirts with the phrase printed on it in advance of Week 10.
• OC Drew Petzing convinces Gannon to start rookie QB Clayton Tune in Week 1.
• DC Nick Rallis is better at playcalling the defense than Gannon is.
• QB Joshua Dobbs helps Tune develop, and then QB Kyler Murray returns after the Week 14 bye and instantly juices his trade value by leading the Cardinals to a comeback victory at home against the 49ers.
• RB James Conner has his third straight season with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards.
• WR Marquise Brown is traded for a Day 2 pick after Week 3, and WRs Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson both step up to go over 800 yards receiving.
• TE Zach Ertz plays behind TE Trey McBride, who flashes with 500 yards and five touchdowns.
• LG Elijah Wilkinson is benched in Week 4 for Paris Johnson, who immediately dominates in the interior and is replaced at RT by veteran Kelvin Beachum. Meanwhile, C Hjalte Froholdt settles into his new team thanks to his familiarity with Petzing’s system.
• EDGE Zaven Collins breaks out with 10 sacks at his new position.
• The interior DL outplays its talent — but just barely.
• LB Krys Barnes proves that off-ball LBs don’t matter.
• CBs Marco Wilson and Kei'Trel Clark show remarkable resilience in fighting through their early-season struggles to become a feisty (although definitely not feared) duo in the second half.
• SS Budda Baker gets into a sideline yelling match with Texans HC DeMeco Ryans in a Week 11 road win, during which Baker seems to say repeatedly, “We own you.”
• Cardinals go 4-13 and get the No. 2 pick — and the Texans go 3-14, so the Cardinals enter the offseason with the first two selections in the draft. Gannon keeps his job — thanks in part to going .500 after the team’s 0-9 start — and he becomes something of a betting folk hero by covering the spread in all but three games throughout the year. QB Kyler Murray agrees to a trade, and after his excellent 2023 return to form the Cardinals get three first-rounders and two-seconders for him from the rebuilding Raiders. Former HC (and current USC QBs coach) Kliff Kingsbury helps QB Caleb Williams win his second Heisman Trophy, and he goes No. 1 in the draft, followed by WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 2.

In-season angles

I view the Cardinals as a strong “bet against” team. They have a first-time HC, OC and DC. And the HC — whose supposed strength is organizing his side of the ball — is yielding his playcalling power so that he can focus on being a CEO-style leader.

They also have vast uncertainty at the QB position, three new OL starters and a stripped-down defense, especially on the DL and in the secondary..

And based on their GM’s actions they — as a franchise — don’t seem averse to losing.

I think it will take the market some time to adjust to how bad this team is.

Even so, I’ll adjust my prior assumptions quickly if this team looks good (relative to expectations) to start the year. With this much unknowability surrounding a team, flexibility in perspective will be important.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t even want to look at the team’s futures market. It’s ugly.

If there’s value to be found with this team, it’s probably with a season-long player prop.

Budda Baker Over 99.5 Combined Tackles (-110, DraftKings) 

I would normally rather punch myself in the face than bet an over in the season-long market. I’m not a hard puncher, but still.

And yet I love this over for Baker.

He has been extremely durable throughout his career, playing 14-17 games in each year with a median of 15.5. Barring some random injury, he’ll be on the field.

He’s still young at just 27 years old. It’s not as if he’s at risk of wearing down or the team limiting his usage. Given how thin the defense is — and with Jalen Thompson possibly shifting from safety to slot corner — Baker should be on the field as much as possible.

He’s a great player. In his six NFL seasons, he has made the Pro Bowl five times and first-team All-Pro twice.

The Cardinals offense is bad, which means that opposing offenses should have extra possessions against the defense, which in turn means more tackling opportunities.

And the Cardinals defense is bad, which means that opposing offenses should be able to move the ball against them and will likely be inclined to run the ball to grind down the clock — and that means even more tackling opportunities.

And the Cardinals defense — though bad — is designed to prevent big plays, which means that opposing offenses, when moving the ball at ease, will likely progress down the field with extended drives — so… Baker could have a cornucopia of tackling opportunities.

On average, Baker has had 108.3 combined tackles per year with a median of 106.5.

Given the circumstances surrounding him this year, I think this number should be 109.5.

You can tail the over on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below!