2023 Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons last year had low expectations, and they met them, following up a 7-10 season under HC Arthur Smith with another 7-10 performance. But 2022 was not like 2021.

Rather, it was a great success in terms of process and results, as they significantly improved in point differential from -146 to -21 while beginning to rebuild the roster in earnest by moving on from aging franchise QB Matt Ryan. 

This year, the Falcons look to gain momentum in Smith’s all-important third season with the team. A winning record feels like the minimum threshold for 2023 not to be considered a failure — and more would be better.

A postseason berth, a division title, a playoff victory: All of these are within the realm of reality and on the team’s wish list. But what the Falcons would probably like most of all is to end the season knowing that second-year third-rounder Desmond Ridder is their QB of the future.

In this 2023 Falcons preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Falcons preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 26. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 26. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 26.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 26.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 26.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Terry Fontenot
• Head Coach: Arthur Smith
• Team Power Rating: -1.75
• Team Power Ranking: No. 21
• Coach Ranking: No. 23

Fontenot is early in his GM tenure, but I like most of what I’ve seen from him so far. When he was hired in January 2021, Fontenot inherited a 4-12 roster with an aged nucleus and no HC.

Since then, he has parted ways with QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones (among others) and reconstructed the roster through the draft, and that makes sense given that Fontenot is a “personnel guy” (vs. a “contracts guy”). 

After graduating from Tulane, where he played for four years and was a team captain, Fontenot joined the local Saints as a scout in 2003, and he held that job for 10 years before earning a promotion to director of pro scouting in 2013. After another seven years in that role, he did a one-year stint as assistant GM and VP of pro personnel and then took the gig as Falcons GM. He’s a personnel guy to the core.

As such, he has done a good job identifying talent in the draft, especially outside of Round 1, where he has been able to find contributors for both sides of the ball. And it’s not as if he has been horrible on Day 1, where he has selected three high-impact skill-position players in the top 10: TE Kyle Pitts (No. 4, 2021), WR Drake London (No. 8, 2022) and RB Bijan Robinson (No. 8, 2023).

Jun 14, 2023; Flowery Branch, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs during a drill during minicamp at IBM Performance Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

That said, he also hasn’t crushed Day 1 — or at least we don’t have evidence of that yet. And there’s a chance that he massively erred in the past three drafts by opting to bypass the QB position early.

In 2021, Fontenot could’ve taken Justin Fields or Mac Jones at No. 4, or maybe he could’ve traded down to get them. Instead, he took a TE higher than anyone in NFL history had ever taken one before. In 2022, Fontenot could’ve traded down to get Kenny Pickett in Round 1. Instead, he took a WR and then added Ridder on Day 2. 

And this year he could’ve traded up to get Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson or down to get Will Levis in Round 1. Instead, he took an “offensive weapon” (aka RB) and said, “You know what? Let’s go with Ridder.” Maybe all of that will work out. But there’s a chance that choosing for three drafts in a row not to take a QB — despite having a top-10 pick each year — will be what undermines Fontenot’s efforts.

Like many personnel guys-turned-GMs, Fontenot seems to have a flaw: He focuses too much on drafting “good players” and not enough on drafting players at spots where they’re likely to offer value. Based on what he’s done in Round 1, I just assume that Fontenot never hits on 16 when playing blackjack. Also, I assume he never plays blackjack. Too risky.

On the one hand, Fontenot hasn’t obviously missed in Round 1. He gets some credit for that. On the other hand, you don’t really get credit for scoring two points at the buzzer when your team needs a 3-pointer, and the Falcons have arguably needed a 3 for three years in a row — and each year Fontenot has passed up a corner 3. And as much as I like Robinson, it was questionable at best to select him in the top 10, especially when the team already had RB Tyler Allgeier, who put up 1,174 yards last year as a Day 3 rookie. 

And I’m also not fully sold on the hiring of Smith as HC, although that can’t be put on Fontenot, who was hired four days after Smith.

Smith has had an intriguing path to the Falcons HC position. People tend to talk about coaching trees, and normally that makes sense — but Smith isn’t really a branch in anyone’s coaching tree. He’s more of a tributary that has flowed into and out of various coaching rivers throughout the years.

After playing as a reserve lineman at North Carolina for five years (2001-05), Smith joined the coaching staff there in 2006 as a graduate assistant and then switched sides of the ball in 2007 so that he could jump to the NFL to serve as a defensive quality control assistant in Washington, where he stayed for two years, after which he did one season at Mississippi as a defensive intern.

In 2011, he returned to the NFL with the Titans, where he would stay for 10 years, working his way up from defensive quality control (2011) and offensive quality control (2012) to OL/TEs assistant (2013), assistant TEs coach (2014-15), TEs coach (2016-18) and finally OC (2019-20).

From 2007 to 2020, Smith worked for seven HCs, five OCs, four DCs and a number of position coaches I don’t care to count. He swam in a lot of different waters, but none of which any brewer would think about using to make beer (if you know what I mean), except for maybe OC Matt LaFleur, who preceded him as the Titans OC in 2018 before becoming the Packers HC the following year.

But, in general, Smith didn’t work with trendsetters before joining the Falcons. He primarily worked with a bunch of old guard lifers who made their NFL bones as longtime OL coaches,TEs coaches and OCs… just like Smith did.

And I think that shows in his scheme and playcalling. With the 2019-20 Titans, Smith’s offense was No. 31 in early-down pass rate and a monstrous -13% in pass frequency over expected on 1st-and-10. More than anything in the world, Smith — the college OL — wants to run the ball.

That was the case in Tennessee when he had Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry, and that’s still the case now. With Falcons last year, Smith’s offense was No. 32 in early-down pass rate and -18% in 1st-and-10 pass frequency over expected (per RBs Don’t Matter).

When Smith dreams of a perfect world, he thinks of 1950s football.

Ordinarily, I would think that anyone who wants to run the ball that much in the modern NFL is a dolt. Here’s the thing: Smith is actually good at designing running plays and building offenses based on the running game. Despite running the ball so much, the 2019-20 Titans were still efficient with their ground offense (No. 2 in yards per carry) and overall offense (No. 4 in yards per play), which translated into two top-10 seasons in points.

Last season — with a first-year RB and undesirable QB combination of underperforming journeyman and raw Day 2 rookie — the Falcons improved from No. 30 to No. 4 in yards per carry, which translated into a jump in scoring from No. 26 to No. 15. As wild as this sounds, the 2022 Falcons were actually more productive running the ball (0.004 expected points per play) than dropping back to pass (-0.001 EPA, per RBs Don’t Matter).

With a better RB and a second-year QB, the 2023 Falcons might approach the 2019-20 Titans in efficiency and overall production. Smith bears little resemblance to the en vogue offensive play-callers du jour, but his retro ground-based scheme seems to work for him, like a thin mustache on a well-dressed man. 

Arthur Smith coaching record

• Years: 2
• Playoffs: 0
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 1-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +1.0
• Regular Season: 14-20 (.412)
• Playoff Record: 0-0 (NA)
• Against the Spread: 15-18-1 (-13.2% ROI)
• Moneyline: 14-20 (-20.4% ROI)
• Over/Under: 14-20 (13.0% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator/QBs Coach: Dave Ragone
• Offensive Playcaller: Arthur Smith
• OL Coach: Dwayne Ledford
• RBs Coach: Michael Pitre
• WRs Coach: T.J. Yates
• TEs Coach: Justin Peelle
• Notable Turnover: QBs Coach Charles London (Titans), Senior Offensive Assistant Steve Jackson (Falcons defense)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Ragone and Smith spent their first three years on the Titans together (2011-13), although Ragone (2011-12 WRs coach, 2013 QBs coach) outranked Smith at the time. Now he’s Smith’s top offensive lieutenant. 

A backup QB who started just two games in the NFL before venturing to NFL Europe, where he won 2005 Offensive MVP, Ragone started out as the QBs coach for the Hartford Colonials in the UFL before working with Smith on the 2011-13 Titans.

After this, he did one year (2015) in Washington as a quality control coach under then-OC Sean McVay and five years (2016-20) in Chicago, where he developed QB Mitchell Trubisky into a winning player (29-21) as his position coach and then passing game coordinator. Less than a week after being named Falcons HC, Smith hired Ragone as his OC.

With the departure of London, Ragone will add the title of QBs coach to his job description this year. Given his familiarity with Smith and the overall continuity of staff and players, Ragone is in a good position to implement the offense each week while Smith calls plays.

Ledford is a former NFL C who lived on the roster borderline for eight years before retiring, after which he worked his way up the high school and college ranks as an OC/OL coach before joining the Falcons in his current role in 2021.

Pitre — like Ledford — worked at the high school and college levels for years before making his leap to the NFL in 2021, doing one season with the Bears before joining the Falcons as the RBs coach. In back-to-back years, Pitre has done great work developing Day 3 rookies (Khalil Herbert in 2021, Tyler Allgeier in 2022).

Yates redshirted at UNC in 2006 — when Smith was there as a graduate assistant — and then he played in the NFL for seven seasons (2011-17) before transitioning to the sideline. After two years with the Texans (2019 offensive assistant, 2020 assistant QBs coach), he joined the Falcons in 2021 as a passing game specialist and was promoted to his current role last season.

Peelle was a 2002 fourth-round TE out of Oregon who played in the NFL for 11 years, three of which (2008-10) were with the Falcons. After his retirement, he leveraged his Oregon connection to jump on then-HC Chip Kelly’s Eagles staff in 2013 as the assistant TEs coach. After two years, he was bumped up to TEs coach, and he held that position until 2021, when he joined the Falcons in his current role.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Ryan Nielsen
• assistant HC/Defense: Jerry Gray
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Dave Huxtable
• LBs Coach: Frank Bush
• Secondary Coach: Steve Jackson
• Notable Turnover: DC Dean Pees (Retired), DL Coach Gary Emanuel (free agent), Outside LBs Coach Ted Monachino (North Carolina), Secondary Coach Jon Hoke (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Nielsen joins the Falcons as something of a substitute for three different guys. As DC, he’s replacing Pees, who worked with Smith in that role on the 2018 Titans and 2021-22 Falcons. As a longtime DL coach, he’s the de facto successor to Emanuel, who was the Falcons DL coach for the past two seasons but whom the team chose not to replace officially. And Monachino’s outside LBs job was also not filled — but Nielsen will likely assume some responsibility for the team’s edge defenders, who play on the DL.

Instead of filling those two spots directly, the team opted to bring in two coaching veterans in advisor/assistant roles: Gray and Huxtable. 

Although Gray is being brought in to help with the defense, he reports to Smith as the assistant HC and is 100% Smith’s guy: In his first NFL job as a defensive quality control assistant in Washington in 2007-08, Smith worked with Gray as the DBs coach, and then when Gray was named Titans DC he brought Smith back to the NFL in 2011 as a defensive quality control coach.

As a player, Gray was a two-time first-team All-American and Hall of Fame CB in college and a four-time Pro Bowler in the NFL. As a secondary/DBs coach and DC, he has been in the NFL for every season since 1997. He ideally will be a tremendous resource to Nielsen — and, like Pees, he’s someone Smith knows and trusts.

The same can be said for Huxtable, who was the LBs coach/special teams coordinator (2001) and DC/LBs coach (2002-03) at UNC when Smith was there as a student-athlete.

Unlike Gray, Huxtable has no NFL experience: This is his first NFL gig after spending his entire career in the college ranks and the past two years as an analyst on HC Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. Also unlike Gray, Huxtable should be able to help Nielsen with the DL and outside LBs coaching responsibilities.

Still, one can’t help but wonder: Instead of giving Nielsen two greybeards who are beholden to Smith and have no direct positional roles… wouldn’t it have been better to give your new DC two young and hungry position coaches of his choosing?

It doesn’t seem as if Nielsen is being beneficially positioned — although he had success with the Saints (2017-20 DL coach, 2021 assistant HC/DL coach, 2022 co-DC/DL coach) before joining the Falcons: Last year the Saints defense was top-10 in yards and points, and the DL was a strength of the unit throughout Nielsen’s tenure.

Nielsen could do well with the Falcons — but his staff has an alarmingly small number of position coaches and almost no continuity with the players. Not great. And the two position coaches he does have don’t fully belong to him: They’re Smith and Gray’s guys.

The one defensive coach remaining from last year’s staff is Bush, who has been in the NFL continuously as a player, scout and then coach since 1985. An occasional DC (2009-10 Texans, 2020 Jets) and assistant HC (2006 Cardinals, 2017-18 Dolphins, 2019-20 Jets), Bush worked alongside Gray and Smith as the 2011-12 Titans LBs coach.

Jackson played CB in the NFL for nine years (1991-99) and was on the 1992 Oilers with Gray, who eventually was his quality control coach (1997-98 Oilers) and then DBs coach (1999 Titans). After Jackson stopped playing, Gray — then the Bills DC — gave him his first coaching job, first as assistant DBs coach (2001-02) and then DBs coach (2003).

After leaving Buffalo, Jackson went to Washington, where he was the safeties coach for 2004-11. There he eventually reunited with Gray (2006-09 DBs coach) and met Smith (2007-08). As the 2016-17 Titans assistant DBs coach, Jackson once again worked with Smith, and then as the 2019 Jets assistant DBs coach he worked with Bush (assistant HC/defense and inside LBs coach), who scouted him as a prospect for the 1991 Oilers and then served as the LBs coach for the 1993-94 Oilers, for whom Jackson started 12 games.

After a two-year stint as the Bengals secondary/CB coach, Jackson joined the Falcons last season — bizarrely as the senior offensive assistant — and now he shifts back to his natural spot as the secondary coach.

I don’t know if I can say this any differently: On his own defensive staff, Nielsen is the outsider. Because of how connected everyone else is to Smith and how interconnected most of them are with each other, it’s possible that the staff could have an immediately productive cohesiveness.

It’s also possible that Nielsen will be a glorified DL coach forced to use and call Gray’s defense throughout his Falcons tenure. If at some point in the next two years Nielsen is fired and Gray is named “interim” DC, it won’t be a surprise — not because of Nielsen but because of the situation he’s in.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Marquice Williams
• Senior Assistant: Steve Hoffman

Williams was a college special teams coordinator who leveraged his Bill Walsh NFL diversity fellowship (2013-14 Bears, 2015 Lions) into a position with the Chargers (2016-17 assistant special teams coach, 2018 defensive assistant) and then Lions (2019-20 assistant special teams coach) before joining the Falcons in 2021 in his current role. Under Williams, the Falcons have been top-10 in special teams DVOA in consecutive seasons.

Hoffman is a long-tenured kicking and punting coach who won a national championship at Miami and three Super Bowls with the Cowboys on HC Jimmy Johnson’s staff.

After leaving the Cowboys in 2004, he did a year with the Falcons (2006) and eventually made his way to the Titans, where he worked with Smith for five years (2013-16 assistant special teams coach, 2017 coordinator). He rejoined the Falcons in 2021 in his current role.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Desmond Ridder
• Backups: Taylor Heinicke, Logan Woodside
• Notable Turnover: QB Marcus Mariota (Eagles)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Desmond Ridder is a 2022 third-rounder who went off the board as a distant No. 2 option in the worst QB prospect class of at least the past 20 years. A four-year starter at Cincinnati, Ridder won consistently (42-6), improved incrementally (9.2 adjusted yards per attempt as a senior) and ran effectively in college (501-2,180-28 rushing, including sacks). 

At the combine, he flashed fantastic athleticism (4.52-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 211 pounds). He could become an above-average NFL QB.

But as of now, he’s a projection who is uncertain at best and doubtful at worst. He’s not an especially strong-armed or accurate passer. He doesn’t have a quick release, and he doesn’t progress through his reads rapidly.

As a pocket QB, he doesn’t have an ace in his cards. In his four end-of-season starts as a rookie, he had a meh-ish 6.5 AY/A and problematic 7.3% sack rate. And he did little as a runner with just 16-64-0 rushing.

Ridder has dynamic playmakers around him, and he should improve in his second season. He’s literally all upside. But, still, he’s a young third-round QB who entered the NFL as a mediocre producer from a non-Power Five conference and then started just four games as a rookie. He’s all upside because his generic baseline career projection could not be much lower.

Taylor Heinicke is a journeyman who is old enough (30 years) not to be a threat to Ridder, experienced enough (25 NFL starts) to be a resource to Ridder and just good enough (6.4 AY/A, 12-12-1 career record) to be able to win some games if Ridder suffers an injury or underperforms. He’ll be an ideal backup for Ridder after spending the past three years in Washington.

Logan Woodside is a 2018 seventh-rounder who spent a portion of his rookie year with the Titans before joining the San Antonio Commanders and then returning to the Titans when the AAF folded. After serving as a backup/practice squader on the 2019-22 Titans, Woodside reunited with the Falcons late last year. His familiarity with Smith’s offense is likely to help him stick on the roster as the No. 3 QB.

Projections as of July 27.

Running Backs

• Starter: Bijan Robinson
• Backups: Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson
• Fullback: Keith Smith
• IR/PUP: Avery Williams (knee)
• Notable Turnover: RB Caleb Huntley (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Bijan Robinson is a 21-year-old five-star All-American Doak Walker Award-winning No. 8 overall rookie with a good athletic profile (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds) and elite production (1,894 yards, 20 TDs in 12 games in 2022).

With a three-down skill set (60-805-8 receiving in college), Robinson is the top RB prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley (2018, No. 2) — and he’s probably a more consistent down-to-down runner than Barkley is. What Derrick Henry was to Smith’s 2019-20 Titans units, Robinson will be to the Falcons offense this year and beyond — except he has pass-catching chops Henry could never dream of. 

Taking Robinson with a top-10 pick might’ve been reckless, but now they have him: The Falcons will use him.  

Tyler Allgeier is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played incredibly well as a rookie (210-1,035-3 rushing, 16-139-1 receiving on 17 targets) — so well that it’s a little surprising the Falcons felt the need to draft Robinson.

While he doesn’t have great athleticism (4.60-second 40-yard dash), Allgeier has bulldozing size (5-foot-11 and 224 pounds) and a straight-ahead running style. He’s a tremendous No. 2 RB who could still see a fair amount of use if the team leans fully into the ground game and uses two halfbacks on the field more than we expect.

Cordarrelle Patterson is a 32-year-old journeyman who flamed out as a first-round receiver, stuck around the league because of his elite return ability and then shifted to the backfield in 2020 with the Bears after having tremendous success to that point as an occasional ball carrier (103-785-7 rushing).

While his efficiency has naturally declined since becoming an RB (4.3 yards per carry), he has established himself as a dynamic and true offensive weapon who can line up all over the field (backfield, inline, slot, perimeter), and since joining the Falcons in 2021 he has contributed 1,983 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage. He’s an elite No. 3 RB who could see regular usage as a change-of-pace back and slot/perimeter receiver.

Avery Williams is a 2021 fifth-round CB-to-RB convert who will miss the season because of an ACL tear suffered in OTAs. Smith is a 31-year-old LB-to-FB convert who has been with the Falcons since 2019. A typical lead blocker, he had two targets and one carry last year.  

Projections as of July 27.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Drake London, Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller
• WR Backups: KhaDarel Hodge, Frank Darby
• TE Starter: Kyle Pitts
• TE Backups: Jonnu Smith, Parker Hesse
• Borderline: WRs Josh Ali and Penny Hart, TEs John FitzPatrick, Feleipe Franks and MyCole Pruitt
• Notable Turnover: WRs Olamide Zaccheaus (Eagles) and Damiere Byrd (Panthers), TE Anthony Firkser (Patriots)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Drake London is a 2022 first-rounder who had respectable production (72-866-4 receiving on 117 targets) as a rookie. With his size (6-foot-4 and 213 pounds), he has the potential to develop into an alpha perimeter player. He was the No. 14 WR last year with 2.07 yards per route.

Mack Hollins is a 29-year-old journeyman who hit career highs last year with 16 starts, 1,030 snaps and 57-690-4 receiving on 94 targets with the Raiders. He’s an above-average run blocker with his size (6-foot-4 and 221 pounds), but he’s an uninspiring No. 2 option.

Scotty Miller is a 2019 sixth-rounder who joins the Falcons after four years with the Buccaneers. He has good speed (4.36-second 40-yard dash) and inside/outside versatility but is undersized (5-foot-9 and 174 pounds) and has dropped off over the past two years (28-223-0 receiving, 4.6 yards per target) after a promising first two years to his career (46-701-4, 8.9). 

KhaDarel Hodge is a 28-year-old journeyman who was good (2.56 yards per route) in limited offensive action (19 targets) last year in his first season with the Falcons — and he was excellent on special teams, where he had a team-high eight tackles.

Frank Darby is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has played 74 offensive snaps in two years. To make the roster, he’ll need to hold off Josh Ali (2022 UDFA practice squader) and Penny Hart (27-year-old offseason acquisition with a slot-only skill set and 4.8 yards per target for career).

Kyle Pitts is a 2021 first-rounder who was literally the most hyped TE prospect in NFL history, given his draft capital (No. 4, all-time high for the position), elite athleticism (4.44-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds), young age (still just 20 years old when the season started), college production (43-770-12 receiving in eight games in final year) and undergraduate accolades (unanimous All-American, Mackey Award winner) — and he delivered as a rookie with a Pro Bowl season (1,026 yards receiving, 9.3 yards per target).

Pitts disappointed last year (6.0 yards per target) because of poor QB play, and then he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11. A bounceback seems likely given that he is expected to be ready for Week 1 and probably won’t have worse QB play than he had last year. Pitts is essentially a WR in a TE’s body.

Jonnu Smith joins the Falcons after six years with the Patriots (2021-22) and Titans (2017-20), where he worked closely with Arthur Smith, who developed him as his position coach and then leveraged him as OC.

Smith did little in New England, but in his two years with Smith calling plays he had 969 yards and 12 touchdowns from scrimmage on 109 targets and six carries. With his skill set, size (6-foot-3 and 248 pounds) and athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash), Smith is another “positionless player” who can comfortably line up all over the formation. 

Parker Hesse — like Smith — is another Tennessee transplant. A 2019 UDFA, he spent his first two years in the league on the Titans practice squad, and then he followed Arthur Smith to Atlanta in 2021. Although he’s primarily a blocker, Hesse is competent when thrown to (7.8 yards per target).

John FitzPatrick, Feleipe Franks and MyCole Pruitt are all competing with each other in the event that the Falcons decide to keep a No. 4 TE.

FitzPatrick is a 2022 sixth-round developmental project who missed all last year to injury. Franks is a Logan Thomas-like QB-to-TE experiment who has a good athletic profile (4.61-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 234 pounds).

Pruitt is a 31-year-old early-career journeyman who eventually found a home with the Titans (2018-21) and then joined the Falcons in 2022. A strong athlete (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 251 pounds), Pruitt is an above-average blocker and capable receiver (8.1 yards per target over the past five years).

Able to line up inline, in the backfield, in the slot, and out wide, Pruitt is basically the older, less productive version of Jonnu.  

Projections as of July 28.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Jake Matthews, LG Matthew Bergeron, C Drew Dalman, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary
• Backups: G/T Jalen Mayfield, C/G Matt Hennessy, OT Joshua Miles, OG Jovaughn Gwyn
• Borderline: OTs Tyler Vrabel and Ethan Greenidge 
• Notable Turnover: OT Germain Ifedi (Lions), G/T Elijah Wilkinson (Cardinals), OG Colby Gossett (Browns) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Matthews is a 31-year-old franchise blindside bookend who has been with the Falcons his entire career. He’s a middle-of-the-road run blocker but strong pass protector with one Pro Bowl. Last year he allowed just 17 pressures.

Bergeron is a second-round rookie who made 39 starts at tackle in college but will likely slide to guard in the NFL. His anchor and hand placement make him a liability in pass blocking, but he’s an asset in run blocking. Dalman is a 2021 fourth-rounder who started all 17 games in the pivot last year. He’s subpar at pass blocking (55.1 PFF grade) but skilled at run blocking (69.5).

Lindstrom is a 2019 first-rounder who was second-team All-Pro last year. He’s a dominant run blocker and improving pass blocker who allowed just nine pressures in 2022. McGary — like Lindstrom — is a 2019 first-rounder who paves the road as a run blocker. Last-year he allowed a career-low 19 pressures, but he has historically been a pass-blocking vulnerability.

Mayfield is a 2021 third-rounder who missed last season to back injury but started all 16 games at LG as a 21-year-old rookie. He was terrible (57 pressures, 11 sacks) and is expected to lose his starting job to Bergeron, but he can maybe sub in at tackle (where he played in college) and could improve given his young age.

Hennessy is a 2020 third-rounder who started at C in 2021 but lost the No. 1 job last preseason. He has C/G flexibility and is a truck in the running game but a lemon in the passing game.

Miles somehow looks like the frontrunner to be the team’s swing tackle. He was out of football last year after final cuts and played just 24 offensive snaps for the Cardinals in his first three seasons — but the Falcons gave him a one-year contract with $352,500 guaranteed, so I bet he’s making the team.

Gwyn is a seventh-round rookie who made 47 RG starts at South Carolina. Because of his size (6-foot-2 and 297 pounds), he might need to move to C. 

Vrabel and Greenidge are both competing to make the roster given the team’s shallow OT depth. Vrabel — son of Titans HC Mike Vrabel — is a 2022 UDFA who saw no snaps last year but made 33 starts in college. Greenidge is a 2019 UDFA who joins the Falcons after four years with the Saints. He hasn’t played a snap since 2020. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie
• EDGE Backups: Bud Dupree, Adetokunbo Ogundeji, DeAngelo Malone, Zach Harrison
• DT Starters: Grady Jarrett, Calais Campbell
• DT Backups:  David Onyemata, Ta'Quon Graham, Eddie Goldman, Timmy Horne
• Notable Turnover: DTs Abdullah Anderson (Commanders) and Jalen Dalton (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Carter joined the Falcons last year after four seasons with the Giants. He played a career-high 909 snaps last year and is acceptable against the run but has never had more than five sacks in a season. Ebiketie is a 2022 second-rounder who had an above-average 70.0 PFF run defense grade last year but only 2.5 sacks.

Dupree is a 30-year-old offseason addition who spent the first eight years of his career with the Steelers (2015-20) and Titans (2021-22). He’s a below-average run defender who has had double-digit sacks just once in his career.

Ogundeji is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has managed just 17 pressures on 477 pass rushes over the past two years. Malone is a 2022 third-rounder who had a 57.5 PFF grade last year. Harrison is a five-star third-round rookie who entered Ohio State with abundant hype and left it with just 11 sacks four years later. 

Jarrett is a 30-year-old two-time Pro Bowler who has played his entire career with the Falcons. His best days are behind him, but he hasn’t had a PFF grade below 67.5 since 2016.

Campbell is entering his 16th season in the NFL and first with the Falcons. He has the strength to hold up inside, the “svelte” size to line up on the edge (6-foot-8 and 282 pounds) and the overall ability (six Pro Bowls since 2014) to impact an offense in both phases: Not since 2010 has he had a PFF grade below 70.

Onyemata joins the Falcons after seven years with the Saints. He’s an average-at-worst pass rusher and plus run defender. Graham is a 2021 fifth-rounder with zero sacks but run-stopping muscle.

Goldman is a 29-year-old nose who opted out of 2020, sucked in 2021, signed with the Falcons in 2022 and then retired, and now has un-retired and returned to the team. When on his game he’s an above-average run stuffer and pass rusher, but he could be rusty red after two years off in the past three seasons. Horne is a 2022 UDFA who had a 47.4 PFF grade last year. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Troy Andersen, Kaden Elliss
• Backups: Mykal Walker, Nate Landman
• Borderline: Tae Davis and Andre Smith
• Notable Turnover: Rashaan Evans (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Andersen is a 2022 second-rounder with elite athleticism (4.42-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 243 pounds) and an intriguing history of collegiate versatility (RB and LB as freshman, QB and occasional punter as sophomore, LB and RB as junior, All-American LB as senior). He’s still learning the position, which helps explain his dreadful 40.2 PFF grade last year, but he has long-term upside.

Elliss is a 2019 seventh-rounder who joins the Falcons after four years with the Saints. He has outstanding box/edge flexibility and is coming off a career-year with 632 snaps, 78 tackles and seven sacks — but he’s a hit-and-miss cover man.

Walker is a 2020 fourth-rounder whose 2022 campaign (in which he played a career-high 769 snaps) was plagued by across-the-board mediocrity. Landman is a forgettable 2022 UDFA. He’ll need to hold off Davis and Smith, two offseason acquisitions with special teams utility.

Secondary

• CB Starters: A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes
• CB Backups: Clark Phillips, Dee Alford, Tre Flowers
• S Starters: Jessie Bates, Richie Grant
• S Backups: Jaylinn Hawkins, DeMarcco Hellams
• Borderline: CBs Darren Hall and Cornell Armstrong
• Notable Turnover: CBs Casey Hayward (free agent) and Isaiah Oliver (49ers), S Dean Marlowe (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Terrell is a 2020 first-rounder who was second-team All-Pro in 2021 and has allowed just a 50.7% catch rate over the past two years. He can be inconsistent in coverage but is one of the league’s best corners when he’s on.

Okudah was drafted No. 3 overall by the Lions in 2020 and traded to the Falcons this offseason for a fifth-rounder after three years of bad-at-best production (10.9 yards per target). Hughes played alongside Okudah with the Lions last year in the slot after four years with the Chiefs (2021) and Vikings (2018-2020). He’s willing in run defense (81.1 PFF grade in 2022) but weak in coverage (9.8 yards per target).

Phillips is a four-star All-American fourth-round rookie who has modest size (5-foot-9 and 184 pounds) and speed (4.51-second 40-yard dash) but serious production (eight interceptions, 19 passes defended in final two seasons) and intelligent aggressiveness.

Alford is a small-school 2022 UDFA who stepped up last year as a rotational slot man with 246 snaps of average-at-worst play in coverage and run defense. Flowers — who played under secondary coach Steve Jackson on the 2021 Bengals — joins the Falcons with five years of experience, elite size (6-foot-3 and 200 pounds) and good athleticism (4.45-second 40-yard dash), but he has never had a PFF coverage grade of even 60.

He’ll need to hold off Hall (2021 fourth-rounder, 9.8 yards per target last year) and Armstrong (2018 sixth-rounder, no PFF grade above 57.5), both of whom could get pushed off the roster after all the CB additions this offseason.

Bates is a 26-year-old free agent signing who made 79 starts for the Bengals over the past half-decade and was a 2020 second-team All-Pro. Even as a deep safety, he’s an above-average run supporter. Like Flowers, he played under Jackson on the Bengals (2020-21). Grant is a 2021 second-rounder yet to distinguish himself as a run-stopper, pass rusher and cover man.

Hawkins is a 2020 fourth-rounder who started last year but will be pushed to the bench with the addition of Bates. In three seasons, he hasn’t had a PFF grade of more than 60. Hellams is a seventh-round rookie who started two seasons for Alabama and led the team with 108 tackles as a senior. He has the size (6-foot-1 and 213 pounds) and tenacity to be an attack box safety. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Younghoe Koo
• Punter: Bradley Pinion
• Holder: Bradley Pinion
• Long Snapper: Liam McCullough
• Kick Returner: Cordarrelle Patterson
• Punt Returner: Mike Hughes
• Borderline: PRs Scotty Miller, Penny Hart and Josh Ali
• Notable Turnover: KR/PR Avery Williams (IR, knee)

Koo is a 2017 UDFA who bounced around the NFL and AAF before catching on with the Falcons in 2019. A 2020 Pro Bowler, Koo has converted 89.1% of his field goal attempts and has decent distance with 19 conversions on 24 attempts of 50-plus yards over the past three years.

Pinion joined the Falcons last year after seven years with the 49ers (2015-18) and Buccaneers (2019-21). He has an uninspiring 43.9 yards per punt for his career. 

McCullough is a 2020 UDFA who logged his first season of regular action last year. Patterson has an NFL-record nine kick return touchdowns for his career and a blinding average of 29.5 yards per kick return. With the injury to Williams, Patterson is likely to see more work this year as a return man, especially now that the team needs him less as a runner. 

On punt returns, I give the early edge to Hughes (who also might push Patterson for kick return duty), given that he was a dominant return man in college (20-635-2 kick returning, 14-233-1 punt returning in final season). But he hasn’t been a serious returner in the NFL, and he could face competition from Miller, Hart and Ali, all of whom were also productive college returners. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Falcons’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 2
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 3-10
• Opponents: at DET, vs. JAX (in London), vs. HOU, vs. WAS, at TB, at TEN, vs. MIN, at ARI

When a team has one of the league’s easiest schedules, it’s hard to say of any point in the season, “Here’s a really hard stretch.” But Weeks 3-10 aren’t especially kind to the Falcons.

After opening the season with two games at home, they go to Detroit and then London, where they’re sizable underdogs to the Lions and Jaguars.

After that, instead of getting a bye, they return home weary to host the division rival Panthers in Week 6, and then in Week 7 they stay at home but have a three-day rest disadvantage against the Commanders. And then they play three-of-four away before heading into the Week 11 bye: at the Buccaneers (divisional matchup), at Titans (off the bye, facing the familiar Smith), home vs. Vikings (favored, playoff team), and then at Cardinals (QB Kyler Murray might be back).

Again, I’m not saying that this stretch is exactly difficult. But it’s also more challenging than one might expect, and if the Falcons fail to meet expectations this year it will likely be because they lost some games they should’ve won in Weeks 3-10.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Falcons.

• HC Arthur Smith makes his offense one-dimensional by emphasizing the running game to an absurd degree.
• DC Ryan Nielsen underperforms to open the year and is stripped of defensive playcalling duties, which are given to assistant HC Jerry Gray after a Week 8 road loss to the Titans.
• QB Desmond Ridder plays like a guy selected on Day 2 of the worst QB prospect class of at least the past 20 years.
• RB Bijan Robinson is merely excellent instead of elite.
• WR Drake London explodes on the sideline late in the fourth quarter of a Week 6 loss after Ridder overthrows him on a deep would-be touchdown on his first target of the day.
• TE Kyle Pitts is slow to return from injury and eventually cedes significant playing time to the other TEs because they’re superior blockers.
• LG Matthew Bergeron struggles as a rookie in the transition from tackle to guard while C Drew Dalman continues to be a liability in pass protection, and together they form a weak link in an otherwise solid OL chain.
• EDGEs Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and Bud Dupree “lead” a perimeter unit that gets almost no pressure on opposing passers.
• DTs Grady Jarrett and Calais Campbell start to play like guys in their 30s.
• LBs Troy Andersen and Kaden Elliss endlessly submit themselves to coverage exploitation.
• CBs Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes bring Detroit’s pass defense to Atlanta.
• Falcons regress to 6-11, Arthur Smith is fired and Kliff Kingsbury is hired as HC after what owner Arthur Blank calls, “An impressive and thorough interview process.”

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Falcons.

• HC Arthur Smith uses just enough play-action passing pepper to keep his beefy run-based offense spicy.
• DC Ryan Nielsen benefits from the experience and interconnectedness of everyone else on his defensive staff and credits assistant HC Jerry Gray for his strategic contributions after a Week 8 road win over the Titans.
• QB Desmond Ridder plays like a guy who should’ve been drafted late in Round 1.
• RB Bijan Robinson wins Offensive Rookie and Player of the Year after he breaks Eric Dickerson’s all-time single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards.
• WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts both cross the 1,000-yard threshold in Week 18.
• LG Matthew Bergeron settles in at guard, and C Drew Dalman continues to be a liability in pass protection — but it doesn’t matter because the team is so dominant running the ball.
• EDGEs Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and Bud Dupree get just enough pressure off the perimeter to make the 
• DTs Grady Jarrett and Calais Campbell do what they always do.
• LBs Troy Andersen and Kaden Elliss form a surprise duo that contributes in all phases, as Andersen locks down coverage, Elliss rushes off the edge and both punish runners in the box.
• CBs Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes both evolve into almost league-average players in their new environment.
• Falcons go 12-5, squeak by the Vikings on Super Wild Card Weekend, overwhelm a soft Lions run defense in the Divisional Round and then predictably lose by double-digit points on the road to the Eagles in the NFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Falcons as a strong “bet on” team thanks primarily to their easy schedule.

If I were to fade the Falcons at some point, it would likely be at home or outside the division.

• Smith at Home: 5-11 ATS (31.2% ROI for faders)
• Smith Outside NFC South: 9-12-1 ATS (8.5% ROI for faders)

But I don’t see myself betting against them often this year.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

There’s a correlation between all the team futures markets: Super Bowl, Conference, Division, Win Total, and Playoffs — they all move in coordination with each other

But this correlation is rarely perfect, and sometimes it’s vulnerably imperfect. I think we have such a situation with the Falcons when we look at these two lines.

• Under 8.5 Wins: +120 (BetMGM)
• To Make Playoffs: +120 (BetMGM)

Based on these odds, the Falcons are expected to go over 8.5 wins, but they’re also expected not to make the playoffs.

I don’t think that makes much sense, especially in a weak NFC.

In each of the past two years, one NFC team with nine wins has been left out of the playoffs, so it’s possible for a winning team not to make the postseason: It happens. But that’s a tough predictive needle to thread, which means that there’s probably an exploitable gap between the fabric of these two markets.

Falcons to Make Playoffs (+120, BetMGM)

I have the Falcons projected for 8.6 wins as the No. 7 team in the NFC, so it’s not as if I’m saying it’s a sure thing that they make the playoffs. But I’m closer to nine wins than eight, and nine wins will likely get the job done.

And it’s worth remembering that the Buccaneers won the NFC South last year and made the playoffs with a losing record. Within the Falcons’ own division, it’s possible for a team to go under 8.5 wins and still get a postseason berth.

At +120 odds, the Falcons have a 45.5% implied probability to make the playoffs, but I think their true odds are at least a coin flip and maybe as high as 55%.

You can tail the Falcons to make the playoffs on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below to start betting TODAY!