2023 Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

The Ravens made the best of bad circumstances last year. For the second year in a row, QB Lamar Jackson missed five games to injury and made clear his displeasure with his contract. But the defense rebounded to its 2019-20 form, finishing No. 3 in scoring (18.5 points per game), and the team clawed its way to a 10-7 record and the playoffs, where they lost on a fourth-quarter 98-yard fumble return. 

This year, their circumstances shouldn’t be nearly as bad. Jackson has signed a lucrative long-term contract, the team has rebuilt the offense and the defense has a steady assemblage of leaders. As long as Jackson stays healthy, the Ravens should be a contender.

In this 2023 Ravens preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Ravens preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Baltimore Ravens offseason odds

Odds as of June 24. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 24. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 Baltimore Ravens team projections

2023 Strength of Schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 24.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 24.

Baltimore Ravens General Manager and Head Coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Eric DeCosta
• Head Coach: John Harbaugh
• Team Power Rating: +3
• Team Power Ranking: No. 8
• Coach Ranking: No. 4

DeCosta entered the NFL in 1996 as a player personnel executive with the Ravens, whom he has been with ever since, working way up from assistant (1996-87) to area scout (1998-2002), director of college scouting (2003-08), director of player personnel (2009-11), assistant GM (2012-18) and ultimately executive VP/GM, assuming the position in 2019 after the pseudo-retirement of his predecessor, longtime GM Ozzie Newsome (2002-18), who stepped down into the consigliere role of executive VP of player personnel. 

In his tenure with the team, DeCosta has been responsible for the scouting, drafting and signing of many players important to the Ravens’ two Super Bowls (2000, 2012). Although the Ravens haven’t been to the AFC Championship in over a decade, they have routinely fielded a competitive team throughout the Newsome/DeCosta era, and in his four years in this role DeCosta has seen the Ravens go 43-23 (.652) with three playoff berths. It helps that he still has Newsome to rely on, as well as a top-five coach. DeCosta isn’t in the top tier of executives, but he’s better than most.

Harbaugh has been the Ravens HC since 2008. Before that, he was with the Eagles for a decade, first as the special teams coordinator (1998-2006) and then as the DBs coach (2007). Famously, Harbaugh was not the first choice for the job. That was then-Cowboys OC Jason Garrett, who chose to stay in Dallas, so the Ravens went with Harbaugh, an unconventional hire in that he had never been an HC, OC or DC at any level. But he impressed in his interviews, and the team’s assessment of him as a leader has been confirmed, because that’s what he is. 

Harbaugh isn’t so much a coach or coordinator or developer or tactician as he is a CEO. There is no “Harbaugh scheme” on either side of the ball — but there’s an attitude. His offenses are more physical than finesse, his defenses are more aggressive than reactive, and his teams are more resilient than Rocky. They punch above their weight class and pride themselves in doing so. When they get knocked down, they get up and keep fighting. Rarely do they not go the distance.

As the Ravens HC, Harbaugh almost always seems to make sharp decisions when it comes to his staff. He has had six (now seven) OCs and six DCs. That’s a lot of turnover, but the moves he makes usually generate positive results, and he errs on the side of upside vs. safety with his hirings and firings. 

His in-season decision to replace OC Cam Cameron with QBs coach Jim Caldwell during the team’s 2012 Super Bowl run is the stuff of legends. His move from OC Marty Mornhinweg to TEs coach Greg Roman to help unlock Jackson early in his career was prescient — and his pivot from Roman to new OC Todd Monken might be as well.

The proof has been in the results. Only occasionally have the Ravens been the best team in the AFC North, but they have almost always been solid: In Harbaugh’s 15-year tenure, only twice have the Ravens had a losing record — and in both those seasons their starting QB missed five-plus games. Every season, Harbaugh puts a team on the field that thinks it can compete for a championship — and often it does. 

John Harbaugh Coaching Record

• Years: 15
• Playoffs: 10
• Division Titles: 4
• Super Bowls: 1
• Championships: 1
• Win Total Record: 8-6-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.5
• Regular Season: 147-95 (.607)
• Playoff Record: 11-9 (.550)
• Against the Spread: 134-120-8 (3.7% ROI)
• Moneyline: 158-104 (1.6% ROI)
• Over/Under: 122-139-1 (3.4% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Baltimore Ravens team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Baltimore Ravens offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken
• Offensive Playcaller: Todd Monken
• OL Coach: Joe D'Alessandris
• QBs Coach: Tee Martin
• RBs Coach: Willie Taggart
• WRs Coach: Greg Lewis
• TEs Coach: George Godsey
• Notable Turnover: OC Greg Roman (free agent), QBs coach James Urban (Sr. Analyst), RBs coach Craig Ver Steeg (Sr. Analyst)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Monken replaces Roman as the Ravens OC, but everyone else from the 2022 offensive staff is returning in some capacity, so there will be strong organizational continuity in the transition. Throughout his career, dating back to his early days at Eastern Michigan (1993-97 DBs & WRs coach, 1998-99 OC & WRs coach), Monken builds his offense around his players and gets the most out of their talent. 

As the WRs coach for Oklahoma State (2002-04) and LSU (2005-06), he sent three first-round WRs to the NFL. As the LSU passing game coordinator (2005-06), he made QB JaMarcus Russell look worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. He got career-best starter-worthy production out of first-round disappointment Reggie Williams, QB-turned-receiver Matt Jones, forgettable Mike Sims-Walker and pint-sized Mike Thomas as the 2007-10 Jaguars WRs coach. 

He gifted QB Brandon Weeden with first-round draft capital he didn’t deserve as the 2011-12 Oklahoma State OC and QBs coach. He molded QB Nick Mullens into an NFL-caliber backup as the 2013-15 Southern Miss HC. He made the 2016-18 Buccaneers exciting (No. 3 in yards in 2018), QB Jameis Winston manageable, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick suddenly sexy, WR Adam Humphries and TE Cameron Brate serviceable, and WR Mike Evans the best he has ever been (1,524 yards, 11.0 yards per target in 2018) as OC and WRs coach.

As the 2019 Browns OC, he got WRs Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry both 1,000 yards and RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt a combined 2,236 yards from scrimmage. And as the 2020-22 Georgia OC, he built a two-time championship-winning offense that was top-10 in scoring despite having walk-on/junior college QB Stetson Bennett as the starter and funneling the passing game through TEs, RBs, and slot WRs.

In Monken, Jackson probably has the best coordinator of his career — one who has recently proven that he can keep Beckham happy and utilize a strong pass-catching TE. With Monken, the Ravens offense has the potential to reinvent itself and maybe even surpass its 2019 peak.

Sep 25, 2022; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs with the ball during the first half of a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

D'Alessandris has been an OL coach since 1979 and in the NFL for the past 15 years. Since joining the Ravens in 2017, he has overseen a unit that consistently punishes opponents at the point  of attack. Martin was a championship-winning QB at Tennessee who spent six years in the NFL, NFL Europe and CFL before transitioning to coaching in 2006. A coordinator and QBs and WRs coach at the HS and college levels for years, he joined the Ravens as the WRs coach in 2021 and is now shifting to QBs coach to replace Urban, who is still with the organization as a game planning analyst.

Taggart is replacing Ver Steeg, who (like Urban) is staying with the team as a game plan analyst. Taggart was a four-year starting QB at Western Kentucky under HC Jack Harbaugh (John’s father). Right after college, Taggart joined the staff at Western Kentucky (1999-2006) and was Jack’s co-OC and QBs coach on the 2002 championship-winning team. When Jim Harbaugh (John’s brother) was named Stanford HC in 2007, Taggart joined him as RBs coach and oversaw RB Toby Gerhart’s two final seasons (3,278 scrimmage yards) before leaving in 2010 to be the HC of his alma mater, where he turned RBs Bobby Rainey and Antonio Andrews into 2,000-yard producers. 

After serving as HC at Western Kentucky (2010-12), South Florida (2013-16), Oregon (2017), Florida State (2018-19) and Florida Atlantic (2020-22), Taggart is making the jump to the NFL to work for yet another Harbaugh. Maybe he can eventually be an assistant for Alison Harbaugh (John’s daughter) when she becomes a professional lacrosse coach.

Lewis is joining the Ravens to replace Martin as WRs coach. He played WR and special teams in the NFL for eight years and is familiar with Harbaugh from their time together on the 2003-07 Eagles. Lewis has been a position coach in the NFL for the past seven years (2016 Eagles WRs, 2017-20 Chiefs WRs, 2021-22 Chiefs RBs). 

Godsey joined the Ravens in 2022 in his current role after spending most of his NFL career jumping from branch to branch of the Bill Belichick coaching tree (2011-13 Patriots, 2014-16 Texans, 2017-18 Lions, 2019-21 Dolphins). While he has been middling as an OC and QBs coach, Godsey as a TEs coach had success with Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Mike Gesicki prior to his time in Baltimore.

2023 Offensive Unit Rankings

2023 Baltimore Ravens defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Mike Macdonald
• Asst. HC/DL Coach: Anthony Weaver
• Outside LBs Coach: Chuck Smith
• Inside LBs Coach: Zachary Orr
• Pass Game Coordinator/Secondary Coach: Chris Hewitt
• DBs Coach: Dennard Wilson
• Notable Turnover: Outside Linebackers Coach Rob Leonard (Raiders), Safeties Coach D’Anton Lynn (UCLA)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Macdonald joined the Ravens in 2014 and worked his way up from intern (2014) and assistant (2015-16) to DBs coach (2017) and LBs coach (2018-20). After Jim Harbaugh borrowed him from his brother to serve as the Michigan DC for a year, Macdonald returned to Baltimore in 2022 as the new Ravens DC. 

Having worked with the two previous DCs — Dean Pees (2012-17) and Don Martindale (2018-21) — Macdonald has valuable organizational history and has a strong sense of what John Harbaugh wants from his defense, and last year he largely delivered. In 2021, the Ravens defense was No. 19 in points and 25 in yards allowed. In 2022, they were Nos. 3 and 9.

But the defense also exhibited some significant cracks. While the Ravens improved after trading for LB Roquan Smith, the impact one middle-of-the-field player can make on a unit is probably limited, and for the year the defense had underlying metrics outside the top 10, ranking No. 14 in EPA (-0.002) and No. 20 in SR (44.4%). Several key contributors from last year’s defense are gone, so the burden will be on the remaining players and new additions to pick up the slack. Because of the strong top-line performance last year, the pressure will be on Macdonald to live up to the high standards set in his first season on the job.

Weaver was a defensive end who started 55 games for the 2002-05 Ravens after they drafted him in the second round. Once his playing career ended, he transitioned to coaching and has been in the NFL working with DLs since 2012, serving as the Texans DC for a season before joining the Ravens in 2021 as the DL coach and run game coordinator. In 2022, he was bumped up to assistant HC. As the Texans DL coach (2016-20), Weaver guided a strong unit featuring EDGEs JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. 

Smith was a nine-year NFL vet (1992-2000) with three seasons of 10-plus sacks. While he has worked a little on various coaching staffs (he was a pass rush specialist for the 2009 Jets and the DL coach for 2010 Tennessee), he has spent most of his time since retiring as a top personal pass-rushing trainer for NFL players and prospects, including EDGE Justin Houston and DT Calais Campbell, both of whom were on the 2022 Ravens. He’s an imaginative replacement for Leonard.

Orr was an undrafted linebacker for the Ravens who had a 133-tackle second-team All-Pro campaign in 2016 but had to retire after just three seasons due to a congenital neck/spine condition, at which point he joined the coaching staff as an analyst and had that job for four years (2017-20). After a one-year sojourn as the Jaguars OLB coach, he returned to the Ravens last year in his current role.

Hewitt had a three-year NFL career before coaching RBs and CBs at Rutgers (2014-11). He joined the Ravens in 2012 as an assistant, became DBs coach in 2015, and ascended to pass defense coordinator in 2020. Since last season, he has donned the titles of pass game coordinator and secondary coach. Throughout his time in Baltimore, the team has had strong CB play. 

Wilson has been a pass game coordinator and/or DBs coach in the NFL for the past eight years (2015-16 Rams, 2017-20 Jets, 2021-22 Eagles). He has had recent success with CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry and safeties Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. He’s a likely upgrade on Lynn. 

2023 Defensive Unit Rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Chris Horton
• Specialists Coach: Randy Brown
• Special Teams Coach: T. J. Weist

Horton was a 2008 seventh-round safety who stuck in the league for a few years before pivoting to coaching. He joined the Ravens in 2014 as a special teams assistant and was promoted to coordinator in 2019. The Ravens have been top-three in special teams DVOA in each of the past three seasons. 

Brown worked with Harbaugh as a kicking coach for the 2004-05 Eagles, and then he joined the Ravens in 2008, first as a consultant and then as a full coach in 2010. If he merely breathes in the direction of a kicker or punter, that guy becomes a Pro Bowler. 

Weist is a longtime college WRs coach who jumped to the NFL in 2018 an offensive analyst for the Ravens and then shifted to special teams in 2019.

Projected Baltimore Ravens 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Lamar Jackson
• Backups: Tyler Huntley, Anthony Brown
• Borderline: Josh Johnson
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Jackson might be the best run-leaning dual-threat QB in the league. A Heisman-winning 2018 first-rounder, Jackson was a unanimous 22-year-old MVP in 2019, and he’s the only QB in NFL history with two seasons of 1,000-plus yards rushing. To aid him as a passer, the Ravens this offseason hired a new OC and assembled the best WR group he has ever had. With a new five-year $260M contract, Jackson has arrived. 

Huntley has Jackson’s playing style but not his talent. An undrafted 2020 backup, Huntly has started nine games for the Ravens over the past two years. Brown is the lesser version of Huntley. He started one game last year as a rookie and completed just 43.2% of his passes. He could easily lose his roster spot to the 37-year-old veteran Johnson, who made one start for the Ravens in 2021 and completed 70% of his attempts for 304 yards passing.

Projections as of June 21.

Running Backs

• Starter: J.K. Dobbins
• Backups: Gus Edwards, Justice Hill
• Fullback: Patrick Ricard
• Notable Turnover: Kenyan Drake (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Dobbins is a 2020 second-rounder who ranked No. 1 in The Opening’s Nike Football Rating as a high-school recruit, dominated at Ohio State with a 2,250-yard performance as a true junior and then put up 925 yards and nine touchdowns as rookie rotational back. 

Poised to be a second-year sensation, he tore his ACL shortly before the 2021 season kicked off and missed all of the campaign and half of the next one. When active, he was effective in 2022 (5.7 yards per carry), and hopefully he’ll enter 2023 fully recovered, but it’s not certain that he’s durable enough to be anything more than a committee leader.

Edwards — like Dobbins — missed all of 2021 and half of 2022 due to knee injury. Upon returning to action, he averaged his customary 5.0 yards per carry (he has hit or surpassed that mark every year of his career), and in his first three seasons he was the league’s most efficient North/South runner (per NFL Next Gen Stats). The 28-year-old veteran offers nothing as a receiver, but he’s a competent No. 2 option who’s more than willing to fight for tough yards.

Hill — like Dobbins and Edwards — missed 2021 to injury (Achilles). With only 695 scrimmage yards since 2019, he’s a distant No. 3 back with the ability to pitch in as a kick returner. Ricard is an undrafted 2017 DT-turned-FB who played a career-high 747 snaps last year and has been a Pro Bowler each season since 2019. An above-average run and pass blocker, Ricard might see less action this year as the team shifts to more of a three-WR offense, but his value is unquestioned in heavy sets.

Projections as of June 21.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers 
• WR Backups: Nelson Agholor, Devin Duvernay, James Proche
• TE Starter: Mark Andrews
• TE Backups: Isaiah Likely, Charlie Kolar
• Borderline: WR Tylan Wallace
• Notable Turnover: WRs Demarcus Robinson (Rams), Sammy Watkins (Free Agent) & DeSean Jackson (Free Agent), TEs Josh Oliver (Vikings) & Nick Boyle (Free Agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Bateman is a 2021 first-rounder who has missed 16 games over the past two years. He’s an explosive player (4.39-second 40-yard dash, 9.1 yards per target with Jackson), but he might lack the all-around skill set to be a true No. 1 WR. 

Beckham launched his career on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory with three consecutive seasons of 1,300-plus yards receiving, but he hasn’t been the same player since suffering season-ending ankle and ACL injuries in 2017 and 2020 — and he missed all of 2022 because of the ACL tear (his second) he endured in Super Bowl 56. Beckham had his most recent 1,000-yard season with Monken on the 2019 Browns, and maybe he still has the ability to contribute as a steady No. 2 option, but his days as an alpha playmaker are long gone. 

Flowers is a first-round rookie with inside/outside versatility and a get-this-guy-the-ball skill set (78-1,077-12 receiving as a senior, 57-345-2 rushing for his career). He’s likely to play most in the slot because of his size (5-foot-9 and 182 pounds), but he has good speed (4.42-second 40-yard dash) and the upside to become the No. 1 WR quickly.

Agholor is a 30-year-old veteran with a one-year contract, 95 career starts and the ability to line up at all three WR spots. He’s a strong No. 4 WR. Duvernay is a 2020 third-rounder who makes his money as a return man — he was a first-team All-Pro two years ago — but also can contribute on offense: Last year he had career highs with 631 snaps, 49 receptions and 491 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage. Proche is a 2020 sixth-rounder with 278 yards receiving through three years. He’s not great, but he’s probably better than Wallace (7.0 yards per target vs. 4.3 for career).

Andrews is a second-contract 2021 first-team All-Pro who has been the pass-catching centerpiece of the Ravens offense since his 2019 second-season breakout. Only TEs Travis Kelce and George Kittle have more than Andrews’ 4,313 yards receiving at the position over the past five years. 

Likely is a 2022 fourth-rounder who last year played as the No. 3 TE but should ascend to the No. 2 role in his second season. A poor blocker, Likely is basically a big-bodied WR — he played 62.2% of his pass snaps in the slot last year and 18.9% out wide — and he dominated at Coastal Carolina as a senior with 59-912-12 receiving. Kolar (like Likely) is a 2022 fourth-rounder. He hardly played as a rookie but had 2,044 yards receiving in his final three college seasons.

Projections as of June 21.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Ronnie Stanley, LG Ben Cleveland, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Morgan Moses
• Backups: OL Patrick Mekari, G John Simpson, OT Daniel Faalele, OL Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu
• IR/PUP: G Andrew Vorhees (knee)
• Borderline: OT David Sharpe
• Notable Turnover: LG Ben Powers (Broncos), OT Ja'Wuan James (free agent), C/G Trystan Colon-Castillo
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Stanley is a 2016 first-rounder who earned first-team All-Pro recognition in 2019 but has missed 34 games over the past three years (including playoffs) since signing a five-year extension. Cleveland is a 2021 third-rounder who has made four starts in two years. He’s expected to replace Powers in the starting lineup. 

Linderbaum is a 2022 first-rounder who started every game as a rookie and has the makings of a franchise pivot. He needs to improve in pass-blocking (29 pressures allowed) but paves road as a run-blocker (84.2 PFF grade). Zeitler is a dependable contract-year veteran who has started 166 games at RG over the past 11 years (the past two with the Ravens). He’s an above-average pass and run-blocker who has only once had a PFF grade lover than 70. 

Moses is a career RT who has made 130 starts since his 2014 rookie campaign. In his first season with the Ravens, he last year had PFF grades above 75 in both pass and run blocking.

Mekari is a super sub who has made 32 starts for the Ravens since entering the league as an undrafted tackle. Over the past four years he has played literally every position on the line and is the top backup at both OT and C. Last year he had a career-best 80.4 PFF pass-blocking grade and made four starts at LT. 

Simpson had three subpar seasons with the Raiders after they drafted him as a 2020 fourth-rounder, but he has 22 NFL starts and can play both G spots. Faalele is a mountain of a man (6-foot-8 and 380 pounds) who made one spot start at LT last year as a rookie. He is raw but has the potential to develop into a dominant bookend. 

Aumavae-Laulu is a sixth-round rookie tackle who will likely transition to guard and fill in this year for Vorhees, a 2022 first-team All-American G who fell to the seventh round because he tore his ACL at the combine. If the Ravens want another veteran on the line, they could bump Aumavae-Laulu for Sharpe, who has been on the practice squad since 2021.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Tyus Bowser, Odafe Oweh
• EDGE Backups: David Ojabo, Tavius Robinson, Malik Harrison
• DT Starters: Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike
• DT Backups: Broderick Washington, Travis Jones, Brent Urban
• Borderline: EDGE Jeremiah Moon, DTs Rayshad Nichols & Angelo Blackson
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Justin Houston (free agent) & Jason Pierre-Paul (free agent), DT Calais Campbell (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Bowser is a homegrown second-contract pass rusher with above-average skills but no seasons of more than eight sacks since his 2017 rookie year. He will need to step up to help replace the unsigned Houston and Pierre-Paul — and the Ravens could elect before the season to add a veteran edge… maybe Houston or Pierre-Paul. 

Oweh is a 2021 first-rounder with 40-plus QB pressures in both his seasons as a rotational rusher. In 2023, the team will want him to convert more of those pressures (92 for his career) into sacks (11). 

Ojabo is a 2022 second-rounder who had 11 sacks in his final college season but fell in the draft because of a torn Achilles suffered at his pro day. A strong athlete (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds), he managed to return to limited action at the end of his rookie campaign and will look to play as a full contributor this year. 

Robinson is a rookie fourth-rounder who jumped from Canada to Mississippi for college and seven sacks as a senior. Harrison is a 2020 third-round offball/edge hybrid who played a career-high 54.2% of his snaps on the line last year and has made 20 starts for the Ravens. If the team doesn’t add a veteran, it will likely use Harrison as a rotational edge once again, although the undrafted Moon could push for a spot after spending his rookie season on the practice squad last year.

Pierce has spent the majority of his career with the Ravens since going undrafted in 2016 (minus sitting out 2020 and playing for the Vikings in 2021). With his size (6-foot and 355 pounds), he’s a near-elite nose-capable runstuffer with above-average pass-rush ability. He should return to his usual form after suffering a season-ending biceps tear in Week 3 last year. Madubuike is a 2020 third-rounder who has underperformed through three seasons. With Campbell gone, the team will need him to step up in his contract year. 

Washington is a 2020 fifth-rounder who played a career-high 501 snaps last year and has improved each season. He could push Madubuike for a starting spot. Jones is a 2022 third-rounder who gave the team 340 snaps of acceptably subpar play as a rookie (19 tackles, five QB pressures). His size (6-foot-4 and 334 pounds) give him A/B-gap flexibility. 

Urban spent the first five years of his career with the Ravens and then prodigal-ed his way with the Titans, Bears and Cowboys for three years before returning to Baltimore in 2022. A solidly above-average run defender for years, Urban has been outright bad the past two seasons (44.3 and 54.8 PFF grades) and could lose his roster spot to the undrafted Nichols (2022 practice squad) or veteran Blackson (eight years of experience) if either of them impresses in camp.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen
• Backups: Trenton Simpson, Kristian Welch
• Borderline: Del'Shawn Phillips
• Notable Turnover: Josh Bynes (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Smith was drafted No. 8 overall in 2018 by the Bears, who got two second-team All-Pro performances from him in 4.5 years before trading him in Week 9 last year to the Ravens, who signed him to a five-year $100M deal and saw him earn first-team All-Pro. Splits can be noisy, but before acquiring Smith the Ravens defense was No. 28 in EPA; after, No. 5 (per RBs Don’t Matter). Offball linebackers don’t matter — but Smith might. 

Queen is a 2020 first-rounder who has never had a PFF grade of 70.0 in either run defense or coverage. If he were better, the team probably wouldn’t have traded for Smith.

Simpson is a third-round rookie with great athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 235 pounds) and recruitment pedigree (five stars). He could push for Queen’s starting job. Welch is an undrafted 2020 LB who has played little defense but 300-plus special teams snaps for the Ravens in each of the past three years. Phillips joined the Ravens last year as a special teams player, but Harrison’s edge/offball versatility and Simpson’s addition could push Phillips off the roster. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Marlon Humphrey, Rock Ya-Sin, Brandon Stephens
• CB Backups: Damarion Williams, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Kyu Blu Kelly, Trayvon Mullen
• S Starters: Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton
• S Backups: Geno Stone, Ar'Darius Washington
• Notable Turnover: CBs Marcus Peters (free agent) & Kyle Fuller (free agent), SS Chuck Clark (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Humphrey is a second-contract three-time Pro Bowler whom the Ravens drafted No. 16 overall in 2017. While he played heavily at RCB last year, he was the team’s primary slot man in 2019-20 and is one of the few corners who can shadow opposing WRs all over the field. 

Ya-Sin is a physical perimeter corner who underwhelmed in his first two seasons but allowed just 5.8 yards per target over the past two years (2021 Colts, 2022 Raiders). On a one-year deal with the Ravens, he’s a sharp offseason acquisition as the replacement for Peters. 

Stephens is a versatile 2021 third-rounder who entered college as a four-star RB and converted to corner in his final two seasons. With his RB-like size (6-foot and 213 pounds), he started 11 games at safety as a rookie but shifted back to corner last year, making two starts on the perimeter and two in the slot. I expect him to be the full-time slot defender this year.

Damarion Williams is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played 225 snaps last year (mainly in the slot) and allowed 8.1 yards per target. He needs to improve in his second season if he hopes to challenge Stepens for slot work. Armour-Davis (like Williams) is a 2022 fourth-rounder who will need to enhance his performance in 2023. On 32 coverage snaps last year, he allowed nine targets, eight receptions and 152 yards receiving. Because Williams and Armour-Davis are uncertain to develop into reliable backups, I project the Ravens to keep two more corners: Kelly and Mullen. 

Kelly is a fifth-round rookie who started four seasons at Stanford and has the potential to play all three CB spots. Mullen is a 2019 second-round reclamation project who has disappointed everywhere he has played (2019-21 Raiders, 2022 Cardinals, 2022 Cowboys), but he has 31 NFL starts.

Marcus Williams is a veteran safety who played as advertised in 2022 in his first year with the Ravens. In every season since his 2017 rookie campaign, Williams has had a PFF grade of no lower than 70. Strong against the run and in coverage, he’s as worthy an inheritor of Ed Reed’s FS mantle as anyone can reasonably be. 

Hamilton went No. 14 in the draft last year, and he lasted that long only because of athletic concerns (4.59-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds). Predictably, the 2021 All-American smashed as a 21-year-old rookie with PFF grades above 80 in coverage and against the run on 600 snaps. By the end of the season, he was even the team’s primary slot corner. He should capably replace Clark at SS, and he and Williams could form a power partnership for years.

Stone is a 2020 seventh-rounder who had career-best marks last year with 450 snaps and a 73.7 PFF coverage grade. He’s a steady No. 3 S. Washington is an undrafted 2021 safety/slot hybrid whose size (5-foot-8 and 178 pounds) is outweighed by his physicality. With Clark’s offseason departure, Washington could jump up to the roster and play on special teams after spending much of the past two years on the practice squad.

Specialists

• Kicker: Justin Tucker
• Punter: Jordan Stout
• Holder: Jordan Stout
• Long Snapper: Nick Moore
• Kick Returner: Devin Duvernay
• Punt Returner: Devin Duvernay

Tucker is the most accurate kicker (90.5% field goal rate) and has the longest kick made (66 yards) in NFL history. For his career, Tucker is an unbelievable 71.3% on attempts from 50-plus yards. A five-time first-team All-Pro, Tucker is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. He has been with the Ravens ever since signing with them in 2012 as an undrafted rookie. 

Stout is a 2022 fourth-rounder who last year was No. 6 as a rookie with 45.6% of his punts being downed inside the 20-yard line. He looks like he’ll be a good replacement for innovative longtime P Sam Koch (2006-21 Ravens), who retired last year and now mentors Stout as a consultant for the team. 

Moore joined the team in 2020 and has been the full-time LS since 2021. Duvernay has made the Pro Bowl the past two seasons as a returner. On punts, he has a career average of 13.0 yards per return; on kicks, 25.6. Last year those marks would’ve respectively been good for Nos. 1 and 6.

Baltimore Ravens schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Ravens’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 21
• Home Division: AFC North
• Opposing Division: AFC South, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 2-8
• Opponents: at CIN, vs. IND, at CLE, at PIT, vs. TEN (neut.), vs. DET, at ARI

The Ravens have a moderate-to-challenging schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, primarily because they made the playoffs last year and play in a competitive division. On top of that — despite having only eight (instead of nine) road games — they have a killer stretch in the first half of the year in which they play five-of-seven away with a middle streak of three road games in a row, the final one of which is in London.

The Ravens start the year with a “gimme” at home against the Texans, but they travel to Cincinnati for a Week 2 matchup with the divisional rival Bengals, who have won the AFC North in back-to-back years. 

In Week 3 they host their last home game until late October — a matchup with the Colts, who could be deceptively spicy with rookie QB Anthony Richardson in a “trap game” — and then they have three straight road games. The first two are divisional matchups against the Browns and Steelers, and the third is a UK game against the plucky Titans, after which the Ravens travel home to play the upstart Lions the very next week. 

They close this stretch by heading back out on the road again for a Week 8 matchup with the Cardinals, who could have QB Kyler Murray back after his season-ending knee injury last year.

The Colts, Titans and Cardinals are all theoretically easy matchups, but it’s not hard to imagine how the Ravens could lose a couple of those games because of circumstances. And within this stretch they face all three divisional opponents in a four-week span — all on the road. And they play the week after returning from London.

If the Ravens find themselves on the wrong side of variance, they could arrive home for a Week 9 matchup against the playoff Seahawks with a 2-6 record and no relief in sight since they don’t get the bye until Week 13.

In Weeks 2-8, they need to hold serve at home and steal a couple of games on the road — ideally against divisional opponents — to feel confident about their postseason chances and to have a winning record entering the second half of the season. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Ravens.

• Macdonald’s defense regresses to its league-average underlying metrics.
• Jackson is slow to take to Monken’s offense in the first half of season and then misses multiple games in the second half.
• Dobbins and Edwards run with less effectiveness as the team deemphasizes the ground attack.
• Bateman stagnates in his development, and Beckham refuses to accept the new reality of his diminished talent, so he publicly gripes to the media about his usage, the offense and Jackson, which results in the team cutting him in Week 11.
• Flowers plays like a small three-star rookie receiver from Boston College.
• Andrews plays a career-high percentage of his snaps inline and struggles to stand out in his new role.
• Stanley misses 10 games to injury, Cleveland is a poor replacement for Powers and Linderbaum fails to improve as a pass blocker. 
• The no-name defensive line generates minimal QB pressure without Houston and Pierre-Paul.
• Smith can’t compensate for the milquetoast play in front of him.
• Stephens and Hamilton have middling performances in their expanded roles as starters.
• Tucker misses three potential game-winning kicks from 50-plus yards.
• Ravens miss the playoffs at 8-9 but bring back the entire coaching staff so the team can build upon the lessons of 2023.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Ravens.

• Macdonald’s defense finishes No. 6 in scoring as its year-to-year underlying metrics improve.
• Jackson immediately buys what Monken’s selling and has the best passing season of his career.
• Dobbins and Edwards maintain their efficiency as defenses increasingly sell out to stop the pass.
• Bateman marginally progresses, Beckham has his best season since his 2019 campaign with Monken.
• Flowers breaks out with a surprise 1,000-yard performance and finishes top-three in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
• Andrews leads all TEs in receiving as the centerpiece of the passing game.
• Stanley stays healthy, Cleveland steps up to his new starting role and Linderbaum becomes a Pro Bowler.
• The defensive line leads an overall unit that finishes top-five in sacks. 
• Smith has a second consecutive first-team All-Pro season.
• Stephens and Hamilton meet expectations as starters.
• Tucker misses only one field goal attempt all year.
• Ravens go 13-3-1 to win the AFC North and No. 2 seed, overpower the Chargers and Bills in the first two rounds of the playoffs, host the AFC Championship and defeat the Bengals in a rock fight, and then — as they did in Super Bowl 47 — beat the 49ers 34-31, thanks to a last-second 49-yard field goal from Tucker, who (as legend has it) tells Harbaugh right before he struts out to attempt the kick, “Get the champagne ready, boss.”

In-season Ravens betting angles

I view the Ravens as a strong “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage as underdogs and on the road based on the following trends.

• Jackson as Underdog: 10-2 ATS (61.8% ROI)
• Jackson on Road: 20-12 ATS (23.0% ROI)

Conversely, if there were ever an ideal time to bet against the Ravens, it’s when they’re favored and at home.

• Jackson as Favorite: 23-30 ATS (9.1% ROI for faders)
• Jackson at Home: 13-20 ATS (17.2% for faders)

Finally, ask yourself this question: Does Harbaugh seem like the kind of coach who will regularly have his team ready to start the year?

• Harbaugh in Week 1: 11-4 ATS (45.1% ROI)
• Harbaugh in Week 1: 11-4 ML (18.0% ROI)

Affirmative.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason Ravens betting market to Exploit

We’re in longshot territory with the Ravens, but the odds to win the Super Bowl, AFC and AFC North aren’t quite as good as I’d want, so I’m looking to the season-long player prop market.

Lamar Jackson Under 3,500.5 Yards Passing (-115) (Caesars)

I’m a simple, man. 

If you let me bet at reasonable odds against something that has never happened before, I’ll probably do it.

Jackson has never passed for more than 3,500.5 yards.

His career high is 3,127 yards, which he hit in his 2019 MVP campaign.

So, in a certain perspective, if you bet the over, then you’re betting on Jackson to play better than he did when he got every single MVP vote four years ago. 

I know it’s not that straightforward, since we’re expecting the Ravens to lean into the passing game more than they ever have in the Jackson era.

And in fact, I am projecting him for a career-best 3,275.7 yards passing.

But the bounds of my imagination are only so expansive.

Don’t interpret this under-bet as a sign that I think Jackson will have a bad season. I don’t.

But there are several ways for the under to hit. Jackson could miss a couple of games. He could sit out Week 18 if the Ravens have nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding. And the offense might not feature the pass as much as we expect.

The under tends to be sharp in the season-long player prop market, and I like this one at Caesars, especially considering that Jackson’s consensus line is 3,400.5.

You can tail the under and get your first bet on Caesars of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you create and account and sign up below!