2023 Carolina Panthers Betting Preview

Last year the Carolina Panthers entered their third season under HC Matt Rhule with the imperative to improve upon three straight five-win campaigns.

Despite rolling with QB Baker Mayfield to open the season — the team’s fourth Week 1 QB in four years — the Panthers did advance to seven wins, but only after Rhule was terminated following a 1-4 start. 

In the offseason, GM Scott Fitterer hired HC Frank Reich and selected QB Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick after trading two first- and two second-rounders and franchise WR D.J. Moore for the right to choose whatever player he wanted at the top of the draft.

With Reich and Young as cornerstones, Fitterer begins the arduous process of rebuilding the organization in 2023.

This year, the Panthers would like to have a winning record. They would love to make the playoffs and win the weak NFC South. But more than anything they need to leave the season knowing that Reich and Young are the foundational pieces they hope they are.

In this 2023 Panthers preview we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Panthers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 14. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 14. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 Team Projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 14.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 14.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 14.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Scott Fitterer
• Head Coach: Frank Reich
• Team Power Rating: -3.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 25
• Coach Ranking: No. 18

Fitterer joined the Panthers as GM in January 2021 and has had a mixed tenure with the team. He inherited HC Matt Rhule, who was hired the previous season, so Fitterer doesn’t get the full blame for how the past two years have gone.

In fact, Fitterer arguably handled Rhule well: He gave his coach enough time to prove himself, but once Rhule showed in the first five games of his third year that he wasn’t up to the job, Fitterer intelligently fired him midseason and gave the team an extended period to consider candidates. And with the addition of Reich, Fitterer unquestionably upgraded the HC position.

At the same time, Fitterer did a mediocre job last year of managing interim HC Steve Wilks, who detrimentally overachieved by spurring the team to a 6-6 record in his 12 games in control.

To close the year, the Panthers went 3-2 after the Week 13 bye and were competing to win the NFC South — which sounds like a great development — but what’s the point of making the playoffs if you start the season 1-4, fire your coach midseason, cut your Week 1 starter in early December and have no QB of the future? 

After parting ways with Rhule, the Panthers should’ve been “playing” for the top pick. Fitterer should’ve clarified with Wilks that the present priority for the team was building for 2023 by evaluating their young players, experimenting with personnel, etc. But Wilks played to win, and in doing so he cost the team dearly — because Fitterer then had to trade away five significant assets (four picks, WR D.J. Moore) to get the No. 1 pick that he should’ve been able to get the old-fashioned way. 

And maybe the problem wasn’t that Fitterer didn’t manage Wilks. Maybe — probably — the problem was that Fitterer himself didn’t prioritize the future (aka “the tank job.”).

Last year, he was presented with the clear opportunity to trade away key players (namely EDGE Brian Burns) for assets to help with the impending rebuild. He didn’t. And maybe Fitterer was right not to trade Burns, who’s a great player. But his refusal to turn veterans into picks highlights the extent to which Fitterer last season wasn’t looking to the future — and then when the future arrived he had to pay for his lack of vision.

To be clear: Given where he was after the year, Fitterer likely made a good choice to trade up to No. 1 and get QB Bryce Young, who could be a franchise difference maker. He had to do whatever he had to do to get the Panthers out of the QB purgatory they’ve been in for the past half decade.

But given where he was after Week 5 (1-4, without HC or QB of the future), Fitterer shouldn’t have been where he ended up after the year. If you told him after Week 5, “Scott, great news: In a few months, you’ll trade away two first- and two second-rounders — and also your No. 1 WR — to take a 5-foot-10 QB with the No. 1 pick,” he almost certainly would’ve been horrified. And rightfully so. He bungled the post-Rhule portion of the 2022 season.

And I’m not sold on Fitterer as an evaluator of talent, which is suboptimal given that Fitterer is a scout by trade (1998-2000 Giants scout, 2001-20 Seahawks scout, director of college scouting, co-director of player personnel, VP of football operations).

Fitterer had QB Teddy Bridgewater on the roster when he was hired, and instead of keeping him he traded a second-rounder and two other picks to the Jets for QB Sam Darnold. And then he sent a fifth-rounder to the Browns for QB Baker Mayfield. Say whatever you want about Bridgewater — but the guy’s a professional veteran. He likely would’ve been better than Darnold and Mayfield over the past two years.  

And Fitterer’s 2021-22 draft classes have underwhelmed. He has done well with his first-round selections (CB Jaycee Horn, LT Ikem Ekwonu), but his Day 2 picks (WR Terrace Marshall, LG Brady Christensen, TE Tommy Tremble, QB Matt Corral) have disappointed as a group.

Aug 12, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich stands on the sideline with quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the first quarter against the New York Jets at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

If Young and Reich prove themselves to be franchise saviors, then all will be forgiven. But Fitterer’s job is riding on an undersized QB and refurbished HC who himself was fired midseason just last year. This could end poorly for Fitterer.

For what it’s worth, I think it’s likely that Reich will have success in Carolina — or at least more success than Rhule had. A 14-year QB in the NFL (1985-98), Reich was the backup for the 1985-94 Bills and led them to the largest postseason comeback in NFL history on the way to one of their four consecutive Super Bowl appearances.

After his time in Buffalo, Reich joined the Panthers for their inaugural 1995 season and started the first three games before giving way to and mentoring rookie QB Kerry Collins, the first draft pick in franchise history. Despite playing for the team for just one year, Reich stayed in Charlotte after he retired and became an active member of the community, eventually serving as the president of the Reformed Theological Seminary (where he earned a Master of Divinity) and pastor of the Ballantyne Presbyterian Church.

I think it’s fair to say that Charlotte and the Panthers matter more to Reich than they do to any other HC candidate they could have hired.

Reich is something of a QB whisperer. After joining the Colts as an intern in 2006, he worked his way up to QBs coach and served as Peyton Manning’s position coach in his final two seasons playing for the Colts (2009-10), when he won MVP and led the league in completions.

As the 2013 Chargers QBs coach, he guided Philip Rivers to a Comeback Player of the Year campaign. As the 2016-17 Eagles OC, he nurtured QB Carson Wentz and molded him into an MVP candidate and then supercharged the production of backup QB Nick Foles in the team’s successful run to the Super Bowl. 

And then as the Colts HC he had top-10 scoring offenses with QB Andrew Luck (2018, Comeback Player of the Year) and then Rivers (2020) and Wentz (2021). He even had the No. 16 scoring offense in 2019 with backup QB Jacoby Brissett, who was forced into the starting role after Luck unexpectedly retired two weeks before the season.

The only time Reich’s offense was terrible in his Colts tenure was last year (No. 30), when GM Chris Ballard decided once again to go with a short-term fix at the QB position, this time with Matt Ryan, who simply no longer had the physical ability to play football. After starting out 3-5-1, Reich was fired by impulsive owner Jim Irsay, but I don’t give Reich much blame for what happened in Indianapolis last year. He was a prisoner of circumstance in Ballard’s penitentiary.

Reich isn’t perfect. His 2021 Colts infamously missed the playoffs because they lost to teams with interim HCs (Raiders, Jaguars) in the final two weeks of the season. He was No. 5 in fourth-down aggressiveness in his four full seasons with the Colts (per RBs Don’t Matter), but sometimes his game plans were awful.

But as a developer and maximizer of QB talent, Reich is one of the league’s best. He might not be the right guy to get the Panthers to the Super Bowl, but he’s probably the right guy to help Young become a good NFL QB.

Frank Reich Coaching Record

• Years: 5
• Playoffs: 2
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 2-2-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -0.5
• Regular Season: 40-33-1 (.547)
• Playoff Record: 1-2 (.333)
• Against the Spread: 38-36-3 (-0.3% ROI)
• Moneyline: 41-35-1 (0.8% ROI)
• Over/Under: 36-41 (2.7% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Thomas Brown
• Offensive Playcaller: Frank Reich
• Senior Assistant: Jim Caldwell
• OL Coach: James Campen
• Assistant HC/RBs Coach: Duce Staley
• Pass Game Coordinator: Parks Frazier
• QBs Coach: Josh McCown
• WRs Coach: Shawn Jefferson
• TEs Coach: John Lilly
• Notable Turnover: OC Ben McAdoo (free agent), Assistant HC/Unofficial RBs Coach Jeff Nixon (Giants), QBs Coach Sean Ryan (free agent), WRs Coach Joe Dailey (Kansas), TEs Coach Kevin Gilbride (free agent)  
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Brown is an up-and-coming future HC candidate who spent three years as an NFL RB before transitioning to coaching. As a college RBs coach and sometime OC, he oversaw big seasons from RBs Melvin Gordon (2014 Wisconsin, No. 2 in Heisman voting), Nick Chubb and Sony Michel (2015 Georgia) and Travis Homer (2017-18 Miami) and then joined the Rams in 2020 as the RBs coach under HC Sean McVay.

In 2021, he was promoted to assistant HC/RBs coach, and then in 2022 he retained the assistant HC position but pivoted to TEs coach.

Although he’s a first-time NFL OC, Brown won’t be overburdened because Reich will handle the playcalling, and he will be able to use Caldwell as a resource, who technically is senior assistant for the team — not the offense — but he’s an offensive guy and will likely contribute most there. Caldwell was a shrewd hire by Reich.

As the 2002-08 Colts Assistant HC/QBs coach, he launched Peyton Manning. As the 2012-13 Ravens OC/QBs coach, he turned Joe Flacco into an elite-looking Super Bowl winner. And as the 2009-11 Colts and 2014-17 Lions HC, he was vastly underappreciated: He went 24-8 in his two seasons with Manning, and he had winning seasons in three of four years with the Lions.

As someone who can aid in the development of Young, Caldwell is an outstanding consigliere for Reich and a mentor for Thomas.  

Aug 12, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) shakes hands with quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the first quarter against the New York Jets at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Campen is the lone position coach holdover from Rhule’s offensive staff. An NFL C for eight years (1986-88 Saints, 1989-93 Packers), Campen is entering his 20th year coaching in the league and has been overseeing OLs for the past 16 seasons (2007-18 Packers, 2019 Browns, 2020 Chargers, 2021 Texans, 2022 Panthers).

Given Campen’s history of success and leadership potential (associate HC with 2019 Browns) and the fact that the OL is likely the strength of the offense, Reich and Thomas were wise to keep him.

Staley — like Brown — could be a serious HC candidate soon. As a 10-year NFL RB (1997-2003 Eagles, 2004-06 Steelers), Staley had four seasons with 1,200-plus scrimmage yards and played with a hard-nosed physicality and attitude that endeared him to fans across the league.

He worked under Reich as the RBs coach on the 2016-17 Eagles, advanced to assistant HC/RBs coach with the 2018-20 Eagles, and recently had great success with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams as the 2021-22 Lions assistant HC/RBs coach.

Frazier is Reich’s guy and has been with him since 2018, starting out as assistant to the HC, advancing to quality control (2020) and then assistant QBs coach (2021-22) and ultimately serving as the interim OC for the Colts last year after Reich was fired.

A computer science major in college, Frazier has the analytics-informed mindset to position Young and the passing game for success. I can imagine him as an eventual OC and maybe HC. 

McCown — like Thomas, Staley and Frazier — is likely to advance beyond his current role. And like Reich, McCown is someone with ties to Charlotte. A 19-year NFL QB, McCown played for the Panthers in 2008-09, and his family settled down in Charlotte even though he played elsewhere for the next 11 years.

Although this is his first year as an NFL coach, McCown has previously served as an assistant at Marvin Ridge and Myers Park High Schools in the Charlotte area, the Eagles offered him a role on the coaching staff in 2020 after he played for them in 2019, and the Texans strongly considered him for their HC job in 2021 — even though he was still technically under contract with them as a player — and then again in 2022. Despite his lack of NFL coaching experience, McCown carries high expectations.

Jefferson is a 13-year NFL WR veteran (1991-2003) who has been coaching in the league since 2006. The early-career position coach for Calvin Johnson (2008-12 Lions) and late-career position coach for DeAndre Hopkins (2021-22 Cardinals), Jefferson is widely respected across the league, is now on his sixth team as a WRs coach and has done two administrative stints (2019-20 Jets assistant HC, 2022 Cardinals associate HC).

Lilly is a longtime college and sometime NFL coach who worked with Brown as the 2015 Georgia TEs coach/special teams coordinator and Campen as the 2019 Browns TEs coach. He most recently was the TEs coach at UNC before joining the Panthers this offseason. 

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Ejiro Evero
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Dom Capers
• DL Coach: Todd Wash
• LBs Coach: Peter Hansen
• Outside LBs Coach: Tem Lukabu
• Secondary/CBs Coach: Jonathan Cooley
• Safeties Coach: Bert Watts
• Notable Turnover: Interim HC/Secondary Coach Steve Wilks (49ers), DC Phil Snow (free agent), Interim DC/Run Game Coordinator Al Holcomb (Bills), DL Coaches Paul Pasqualoni (free agent) and Terrance Knighton (Nebraska), LBs Coach/Run Game Coordinator Mike Siravo (Vikings), CBs Coach Evan Cooper (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Evero was an A+ hire by Reich. Even with the team trading away EDGE Bradley Chubb in the middle of the season and the offense giving his unit no support, the Broncos were still Nos. 3 and 7 in yards and points allowed per drive last year in Evero’s only DC season. He seems to be a legitimate talent as a defensive playcaller and he could be a strong candidate for HC jobs in 1-2 years.

Throughout his 15 years in the NFL, Evero has worked alongside and picked up a lot from various defensive innovators and practitioners: Monte Kiffin (2007-08 Buccaneers), Vic Fangio (2011-14 49ers), Dom Capers (2016 Packers), Wade Phillips (2017-19 Rams), Brandon Staley (2020 Rams) and Raheem Morris (2007-09 Buccaneers, 2021 Rams).

Like Kiffin and Fangio, Evero uses two deep safeties to limit explosive plays and force offenses out of their game plan. With such a scheme, Evero has a chance to compensate for or mitigate the talent deficiencies of his unit.

Capers is an NFL lifer with longtime ties to Charlotte, Reich and Evero. In 1995, Capers became the first HC in Panthers history and rostered Reich in the organization’s inaugural season. After four years with the team, he eventually made his way to the Packers (2009-17 DC), where he hired Evero as a defensive quality control coach on the recommendation of Fangio, for whom Evero worked on the 49ers and with whom Capers collaborated for much of his career (1986-91 Saints, 1995-98 Panthers, 2002-05 Texans).

Capers isn’t Fangio, but he’s as close to Fangio as any 73-year-old defensive counselor can get. After serving as Evero’s senior assistant last year on the Broncos, he returns to the Panthers this offseason.

Wash and Evero worked together on the 2007-09 Buccaneers, where they were both quality control coaches in their first year with the team before Wash advanced to DL coach. After one final Tampa Bay season (2010), Wash did two years as the DL coach (2011-12) for the No. 1 Seahawks defense and then followed DC-turned-HC Gus Bradley to the Jaguars, where he served Bradley and later HC Doug Marrone as the 2013-15 DL coach and then 2016-20 DC.

As such, he was the architect of the short-lived 2017 “Sacksonville” defense that ranked No. 1 in yards and points allowed per drive. After his tenure with the Jaguars, he did two years with the Lions as the DL coach before reuniting with Evero and also Capers, who worked with him as senior defensive assistant on the 2019 Jaguars and 2021 Lions. Wash is a strong lieutenant for Evero.

Lukabu is loosely connected to the Bradley/Wash coaching tree via Robert Saleh, who worked with Wash on the 2011-12 Seahawks and then the 2014-16 Jaguars before branching out on his own as the 49ers DC, in which capacity he employed Lukabu as a quality control coach in 2017. For much of his career, Lakabu has bounced between college and NFL. After his time with the 49ers, he was the 2018 Mississippi State and 2019 Bengals LBs coach and then the 2020-22 Boston College DC before joining the Panthers.

Hansen worked under Fangio (and HC Jim Harbaugh) as a Stanford assistant in 2010, and he followed them in 2011 to the 49ers, where he worked as an assistant and quality control for three years with Eviro. After returning to the college ranks (2014-19 Stanford LBs coach, 2020-21 UNLV DC/LBs coach), Hansen reunited with Evero last year as the Broncos LBs coach and joined him on the Panthers this year.

Cooley started out in the college ranks and then jumped to the NFL with the Rams, where he served Evero as a defensive assistant (2020) and then Assistant secondary coach (2021) before replacing him as DBs coach last year when Evero left to be Broncos DC. Watts is a longtime college coach with experience as a DC and DBs/LBs coach.

He worked as the Broncos outside LBs coach last year and followed Evero to the Panthers this year.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Chris Tabor
• Assistant Special Teams Coach: Devin Fitzsimmons

Tabor is a holdover from the Rhule staff. He has been in the NFL since 2008 and a coordinator since 2011 (2011-17 Browns, 2018-21 Bears, 2022-present Panthers). Last year the Panthers were No. 8 in special teams DVOA.

Fitzsimmons worked with Reich as an offensive quality control coach on the 2011 Colts and then switched to special teams in 2013 at Delaware. In the NFL, he has been an assistant ST coach with the 2014-18 Lions (where he worked with Jim Caldwell) and the 2021-22 Cardinals (where he worked with Shawn Jefferson).

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Bryce Young
• Backups: Andy Dalton, Matt Corral
• Notable Turnover: QBs Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Sam Darnold (49ers) and P.J. Waler (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Bryce Young is the All-American No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 draft and the hopeful face of the franchise for the next decade. The top recruit in the 2020 high school class, Young backed up QB Mac Jones as a true freshman at Alabama and then broke out as a sophomore with a Heisman-winning campaign that saw him pass for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns to just seven interceptions.

Although his overall stats as a junior were less gaudy (3,328 yards, 32 touchdowns passing), his efficiency (9.9 yards per attempt vs. 10.0) was in line with what he did as a sophomore, and he produced with less overall talent around him in 2022.

There are two significant objections to Young. The first is his size. He measured in at a Kyler Murray-esque 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds at the combine — but that’s not likely to be the weight he plays at in the NFL. As a junior he was listed at 194 pounds (he was 180 pounds as as a recruit), and we’ve seen how much trouble the thicker Murray has had staying healthy.

Despite all the success he has had to the point in his career, he might simply be too small for the NFL — especially because of the second objection, which is his lack of rushing. Across his college career, Young averaged just 1.2 yards per rush (including sacks). It’s one thing to be small or to profile primarily as a pocket passer. But it’s another thing to be a small pocket passer.

That said, as far as pocket passers go, Young is adept at maneuvering and escaping the pocket, and he’s capable of reading the entire field and delivering the ball wherever he needs to put it despite his size. He’s far from a sure thing, but he has a fighting chance to be an above-average NFL QB.

Andy Dalton is a 35-year-old three-time Pro Bowler with 162 starts and a wealth of knowledge to share as the backup. A franchise QB turned late-career journeyman, Dalton is now on his fifth team since 2019, but he was serviceable last year, ranking No. 10 in the league with a 7.5 AY/A across 14 starts.

The Panthers hope they never need to turn to Dalton, but if they do for a short stint he might be able to keep the offense on schedule.

Matt Corral is a 2022 third-rounder who played well at Mississippi (9.2 AY/A) but missed all of last year with a Lisfranc injury.

Projections as of Aug. 15.

Running Backs

• Starter: Miles Sanders
• Backups: Chuba Hubbard, Raheem Blackshear
• Notable Turnover: Christian McCaffrey (49ers) and D’Onta Foreman (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

Miles Sanders is a 26-year-old veteran who joins the Panthers this offseason after four years with the Eagles and coming off a career-best 1,347-yard, 11-touchdown campaign.

Despite his size (5-foot-11 and 211 pounds) and athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash), Sanders hasn’t been used as a full-blown workhorse to this point in his career, but he has true three-down potential based on the 78-706-3 receiving he put up on 115 targets in 28 games with Staley as his position coach in 2019-20.

Chuba Hubbard is a 2021 fourth-rounder with decent production as an injury fill-in and rotational back over the past two years (1,423 yards, eight touchdowns from scrimmage).

Raheem Blackshear is a 2022 undrafted free agent with decent pass-catching chops (7.8 yards per target) but limited rushing functionality (3.3 yards per carry), which makes sense given his size (5-foot-9 and 190 pounds). His biggest impact will likely be made as a kick returner.

Projections as of Aug. 15.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo
• WR Backups: Terrace Marshall, Shi Smith, Laviska Shenault, Damiere Byrd 
• TE Starter: Hayden Hurst
• TE Backup: Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble, Giovanni Ricci
• Notable Turnover: WRs D.J. Moore (Bears) and Robbie Chosen (formerly Robbie Anderson, Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Adam Thielen is a 33-year-old grit merchant who joins the Panthers this season after nine years on the Vikings. Despite averaging a triumphant 9.3 yards per target and making the Pro Bowl twice in the first half decade of his career, his efficiency has declined in each of the past five seasons from 9.0 yards per target in 2018 to 6.7 last year. He might no longer have the juice to be an NFL receiver, and it’s likely that he will be localized to the slot.

D.J. Chark is a perimeter receiver with prototypical size (6-foot-3 and 200 pounds) and elite speed (4.34-second 40-yard dash) but just one notable season on his record — a 2019 Pro Bowl performance with 73-1,008-8 receiving on 118 targets for the Jaguars. He was efficient last year with the Lions (9.7 yards per target) but has played just 15 games in the past two seasons.

Jonathan Mingo is a four-star second-round rookie with a mouthwatering physical profile (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds) and four years of starting experience in the SEC — but in no season was he the No. 1 receiver for his team. 

He’s far from a lock to play ahead of Terrace Marshall, a 2021 second-rounder who flashed in his final college season at LSU (48-731-10 receiving in seven games) and muscled his way to 10.4 yards per target last year (albeit on just 47 targets).

Laviska Shenault is a 2020 second-round reclamation project whom the Jaguars traded to the Panthers last preseason for two late Day 3 picks. He has theoretical upside as a Deebo Samuel-esque all-around weapon (8.5 yards per target last year, 38-197-1 rushing for his career), but he’s yet to surpass his rookie-season production of 691 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage.

Shi Smith is a hometown four-star 2021 sixth-round slot man with good speed (4.43-second 40-yard dash) and great agility (6.83-second three-cone) but underwhelming production (400 yards receiving on 568 snaps). 

Damiere Byrd is a 30-year-old journeyman who played the first four years of his career with the Panthers but subsequently took the long way home with stops at the 2019 Cardinals, 2020 Patriots, 2021 Bears and 2022 Falcons before finally returning to Carolina this offseason.

He is small (5-foot-9 and 173 pounds) and more of an athlete than football player — but he has the speed to play on the outside (4.28-second 40-yard dash), the agility to play on the inside (6.60-second three-cone) and the baseline ability to make plays on his limited usage (8.3 yards per target for career, 204 targets). 

Hayden Hurst is a 30-year-old former first-rounder who has never lived up to the hype of his draft capital and now enters his sixth season on his fourth team. He can line up inline and is livable as a run blocker, so he has three-down utility, but his 6.4 yards per target since 2020 (when the Ravens traded him) is a parsimonious mark.

Ian Thomas is a 27-year-old second-contract underperformer. In his five years with the Panthers, he has averaged 5.9 yards per target and gone over 200 yards receiving just once. He has never had a PFF run blocking grade of 65. Even as a No. 2 TE, Thomas is uninspiring.

Tommy Tremble is a 2021 third-rounder who entered the league with heralded blocking skills and a good athletic profile (4.65-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 241 pounds), but he has been a mediocre-at-best run blocker and poor pass catcher (5.3 yards per target) in his two NFL seasons.

Giovanni Ricci is a 2020 UDFA who has fullback/H-back utility and plays heavily and effectively on special teams (12 tackles since 2021).

Projections as of Aug. 15.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Ikem Ekwonu, LG Brady Christensen, C Bradley Bozeman, RG Cade Mays, RT Taylor Moton
• Backups: T/G Cameron Erving, OL Justin McCray, OG Chandler Zavala, OG Michael Jordan 
• Injured: RG Austin Corbett (knee)
• Notable Turnover: C Pat Elflein (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Ekwonu is an All-American 2022 first-rounder who started all 17 games at LT as a rookie. Solid in both phases, Ekwonu has All-Pro upside if he can build upon his first-year performance (65.3 PFF grade). Christensen is a 2021 third-rounder who made six total starts at LT, RT and RG as a rookie before settling in at LG last season.

He’s an above-average pass protector (two sacks allowed in 2022) but subpar run blocker (PFF grades of 53.3 and 56.2 over the past two years). Bozeman signed a three-year contract with the Panthers last offseason after four years with the Ravens. A guard for his first three seasons, Bozeman transitioned in 2021 to the pivot, where he has been an ordinary-at-worst player.

Mays is a 2022 sixth-rounder who briefly filled in at RG last year when Corbett suffered an ACL tear in Week 18. Despite entering college as a five-star recruit and starting for four years in the SEC (2018-19 Georgia, 2020-21 Tennessee), Mays is more of an NFL spot contributor than long-term injury fill-in. He has valuable experience at all five OL positions but will face competition to replace Corbett, who I expect to start the year on the sideline, although he can’t return to the starting lineup soon enough.

Capable in both phases, Corbett signed with the Panthers last year and was immediately one of the team’s best and most consistent OLs after playing for position coach James Campen on the 2019 Browns and winning a Super Bowl with the 2021 Rams.

Moton is a 2017 second-rounder who has started all 82 games for the Panthers over the past five years, almost exclusively at RT. While he has no Pro Bowl accolades, Moton is a stonewall pass protector (only 14 sacks allowed in career) and sufficient run blocker (only one season with a PFF grade below 60).

Erving is a 31-year-old former first-rounder who joined the team two years ago. He has 56 NFL starts to his name and experience at every OL position, and he opened the 2021 campaign as the team’s Week 1 LT — but he has never had a PFF grade above 58, and last year he was used regularly but only as a jumbo inline TE in six-OL sets (76 snaps).

McCray is essentially another version of Erving: He’s a 31-year-old journeyman with the ability to play everywhere along the OL… but he’s a notably subpar player.

Luckily for him, he’s reuniting with OL coach James Campen, whom he played for on the 2017-18 Packers, 2019 Browns and 2021 Texans. It wouldn’t be a shock if McCray beat out Mays for the RG job while Corbett is out, and the same is probably true for Zavala (24-year-old fourth-round rookie with four years as a starter) and Jordan (25-year-old veteran with 29 starts for the 2019-20 Bengals and 2021-22 Panthers but terrible play overall).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos
• EDGE Backups: Justin Houston, Marquis Haynes, D.J. Johnson
• DT Starters: Derrick Brown, Shy Tuttle
• DT Backups: Henry Anderson, Marquan McCall, DeShawn Williams
• Borderline: EDGE Amaré Barno
• Notable Turnover: DTs Matt Ioannidis (free agent) and Bravvion Roy (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Burns is a 2019 first-rounder who has two Pro Bowls and 30.5 sacks over the past three seasons. He’s a minus in run defense but a massive plus in pass rush. Gross-Matos is a 2020 second-rounder yet to take the next step. Last year he had a career-high 847 snaps and a career-low 51.2 PFF grade.

Houston is a 34-year-old gun for hire who just signed with the Panthers in August. Long gone are the 2012-15 halcyon days of four Pro Bowls, but the 2014 first-team All-Pro and league sack leader still can get after QBs as a situational pass rusher (eight-plus sacks in five of the past six seasons).

Haynes is a 2018 fourth-rounder who has never had more than five sacks and is a net negative in run defense because of his size (6-foot-2 and 235 pounds).

Johnson is a 24-year-old four-star third-round rookie power rusher with a great athletic profile (4.49-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds) but little production (nine sacks in six years). An EDGE-to-TE-to-EDGE convert, he’s a bit of a project, so the team might decide to keep a sixth EDGE in Barno, a 2022 sixth-rounder who played a forgettable 51 snaps last year. 

Brown is a 2020 first-rounder who was mediocre in his first two seasons but excellent last year (40 pressures, 67 tackles). With his size (6-foot-5 and 326 pounds), he has the versatility to line up anywhere on the defensive interior from nose to over tackle.

Tuttle is a 27-year-old veteran who joined the Panthers this offseason after four years with the Saints. He adds little as a pass rusher (four sacks for career) but has never had a PFF run defense grade below 65.

Anderson is a 32-year-old journeyman who joined the team last year. He has the size (6-foot-6 and 294 pounds) to play inside as a traditional B-gapper but the athleticism (4.97-second 40-yard dash) to flex out to the edge. He had just five pressures on 96 pass rushes last year but is a steady run defender.

McCall is a 2022 UDFA nose who underwhelmed last year (56.8 PFF grade) but has the requisite size (6-foot-3 and 345 pounds) to man the middle of Evero’s 3-4 system.

Williams is a 30-year-old veteran who hit career highs last year with 598 snaps, 15 starts and 4.5 sacks on the Broncos and now has followed Evero to the Panthers. He’s a run defense liability but a pass rush asset. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Shaq Thompson, Frankie Luvu
• Backups: Kamu Grugier-Hill, Brandon Smith
• Borderline: Deion Jones
• Notable Turnover: Cory Littleton (Texans) and Damien Wilson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Thompson is a 29-year-old Panthers lifer who has been starting for the organization since his 2015 rookie season. He’s an inconsistent cover man and modest blitzer but a bona fide run thumper with a career-high 135 tackles last year.

Luvu is a 26-year-old veteran who joined the Panthers in 2021 after three seasons with the Jets. In his two years in Carolina, he has proven himself to be an ace run defender (90.1 PFF grade in 2022) and strong pass rusher (seven sacks last year) with the ability to flex from the box to edge. That said, Luvu — like Thompson — is weak in coverage.

Grugier-Hill is a 29-year-old journeyman now on his fifth team since 2019. He made 20 starts for the Texans over the past two years, but he’s far from even a league-average backup in run defense and coverage. Smith is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played poorly on defense (28.3 PFF grade) but solidly on special teams (78.0) as a rookie.

Jones is a 2016 second-round reclamation project who produced in his first half decade (one Pro Bowl) but underperformed massively for the Falcons (34.6 PFF grade) and Browns (48.3) over the past two years. He’s probably better than Grugier-Hill and Smith, but he offers nothing on special teams and has no guaranteed money in his deal, so he’s not a lock to make the team.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jaycee Horn, Donte Jackson, Jeremy Chinn
• CB Backups: C.J. Henderson, Keith Taylor
• S Starters: Vonn Bell, Xavier Woods
• S Backups: Eric Rowe, Sam Franklin, Jammie Robinson
• Borderline: CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver
• Notable Turnover: S/CB Juston Burris (retired), SS Myles Hartsfield (49ers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Horn is a 2021 first-rounder who missed most of his rookie season with a fractured foot but played well last year in his return to action. A physical corner with great size (6-foot-1 and 205 pounds), athleticism (4.40-second 40-yard dash) and the ability to shadow WRs into the slot, Horn has allowed just one touchdown and 6.1 yards per target for his career.

Jackson is a 2018 second-rounder who has great speed (4.32-second 40-yard dash), but he is undersized (5-foot-10 and 180 pounds) and has forfeited a career catch rate of 66.8% despite playing almost exclusively as a perimeter corner.

Chinn is a 2020 second-round big-bodied safety (6-foot-3 and 220 pounds) who shifted to slot corner in the second half last year, and given the team’s depth at safety and dearth of slot-capable pass defenders I think it’s likely that he’ll continue to play nickel and maybe even shift to linebacker in base formations (with Luvu pivoting to edge) if the team wants to keep three safeties on the field. Weak against the run but (almost?) acceptable in coverage, Chinn is most valuable through his versatility.

Henderson is a 2020 first-rounder whom the Panthers acquired midseason at a seeming discount in 2021 — but he has underwhelmed with PFF coverage grades of 48.9 and 46.8 over the past two years. Taylor is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has dug his way to a gravely 10.7 yards per target, but he’s a core special teamer.

Thomas-Oliver is a 2020 seventh-rounder who missed most of last season to injury and has played just 94 defensive snaps in his career — but he could make the team because of his special teams ability (five tackles in 2021).   

Bell is a third-contract veteran whose addition to the team this offseason should enable Chinn more easily to stay at nickel. A box safety with the ability to line up deep, in the slot and even occasionally on the perimeter, Bell is an above-average run stopper, pass rusher and coverage defender, despite his lack of Pro Bowl accolades.

Woods joined the Panthers last season after five years with the Cowboys (2017-20) and the Vikings (2021). With 80 career starts, he’s a solid (if unspectacular) veteran who can play adequately across the formation. 

Rowe is a 30-year-old S/CB hybrid who signed a one-year deal with the Panthers in April after eight seasons with the Eagles (2015), Patriots (2016-18) and Dolphins (2019-22). A perimeter corner for the first two years of his career, Rowe shifted to the slot and then safety, where he is a better cover man and can more readily leverage his ability as a blitzer (18 pressures on 68 pass rushes since 2020) and run defender (76.7 PFF grade last year).

Franklin is a 2020 UDFA with 15 special teams tackles over the past two years. Robinson is a four-star fifth-round rookie with a poor physical profile (4.59-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds) but strong nose for the ball (team-high 183 tackles and five interceptions in final two seasons).

Specialists

• Kicker: Eddy Piñeiro
• Punter: Johnny Hekker
• Holder: Johnny Hekker
• Long Snapper: J.J. Jansen
• Kick Returner: Raheem Blackshear
• Punt Returner: Shi Smith
• Borderline: K Matthew Wright

Piñeiro kicked for ST coordinator Chris Tabor on the 2019 Bears and the 2022 Panthers. He doesn’t have great distance (just five career attempts of 50-plus yards), but his field goal accuracy (95.3% conversion rate) has been strong since he returned to action after spending all of 2020 on IR.

He just signed a two-year deal with $2.25M guaranteed this offseason, so it will be an upset if he doesn’t beat out Wright. That said, we’re talking about kickers, and Wright has sufficient accuracy (87.0%) and a stronger leg (six attempts of 50-plus yards in 2021, his one season as a team’s primary kicker).   

Hekker joined the Panthers last year after 10 seasons with the Rams, where he was a four-time first-team and two-time second-team All-Pro. In 2022, Hekker was No. 7 with 48.5 yards per punt and No. 2 with 48.1% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line.

On top of that, Hekker has completed 60.9% of his pass attempts on 23 fakes. If a punter from our generation is ever to make the Hall of Fame, it’s probably Hekker.

Jansen has been long snapping for the Panthers since 2009 and made the Pro Bowl in 2013. I guess the team likes him. Blackshear was the team’s primary kick returner as a rookie and impressed with 27.0 yards per return on 19 attempts.

Smith, though, was far less impressive as the primary punt returner: Last year he ranked dead last among qualifying specialists with 6.2 yards per return. Someone might take his job — maybe Blackshear.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Panthers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 5
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-6
• Opponents: at ATL, vs. NO, at SEA, vs. MIN, at DET, at MIA

The Panthers have the fifth-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents, but they have a couple challenging stretches. For instance, in Weeks 10-14 they play four-of-five away with one home game against the Cowboys. But it’s the opening six weeks that most have my attention.

In Weeks 1-2, with a rookie QB, they face their two toughest divisional opponents: at Falcons and vs. Saints. They could easily lose both games, which would immediately put them at a real disadvantage to make the playoffs. After that, they play three-of-four away against clearly superior opponents.

In Week 3, they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks (playoff team, one-day rest advantage). In Week 4, they return home to host the Vikings (playoff team), after which they go to Detroit to take on the Lions (winning record, three-day rest advantage) and then to Miami to close this stretch against the Dolphins (playoff team). They’re underdogs in all six games.

The Panthers could be 0-6 entering the Week 7 bye and facing the possibility of having the No. 1 pick two years in a row.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Panthers.

• HC Frank Reich consistently creates conservative game plans that are intended to help his rookie starter but actually hinder the offense.
• DC Ejiro Evero turns out to be a one-hit wonder.
• QB Bryce Young suffers a string of minor injuries that cumulatively limit his ability to develop as a rookie.
• RB Miles Sanders wears down as a workhorse and proves to be an inefficient pass catcher.
• WR Adam Thielen plays like a retiree, WR D.J. Chark misses half the season with an injury and WR Jonathan Mingo looks like a rookie who never led his college team in receiving.
• TE Hayden Hurst somehow becomes a focal point of the offense and has the most inefficient season of his career while being forced targets. 
• LT Ikem Ekwonu stagnates in his second year, and RG Austin Corbett misses the entire season due to complications with his ACL recovery, which results in an exploitable OL hole.
• EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos continues to swim in a stream of shortcomings, and EDGE Justin Houston drowns in the aquifer of advanced age.
• DT Derrick Brown regresses to his pre-2022 form.
• LBs Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu compete to see who is worse in coverage.
• S/CB Jeremy Chinn quickly looks like a small linebacker at nickel and is benched… only to be reinserted into the slot weeks later when his potential replacements all fail.
• SS Vonn Bell is slow to adapt to his new defensive scheme.
• K Eddy Piñeiro is terrible in Weeks 1-4, waived, and replaced by K Matthew Wright, who turns out to be even worse.
• Panthers finish with a league-worst 3-14 record and are unsure about Young as the future of the franchise — but they can’t address the QB position in the draft because the Bears own their 2023 first-rounder… the No. 1 pick in a loaded class.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Panthers.

• HC Frank Reich fits and then adapts the offense to match the ability of his evolving rookie starter. 
• DC Ejiro Evero once again coordinates a top-10 defense.
• QB Bryce Young lives up to the hype of his status as the No. 1 recruit in his high school class and the No. 1 pick in his draft class. 
• RB Miles Sanders has the best season of his career.
• WR Adam Thielen has one final acceptable season as a slot-only contributor, WR D.J. Chark stays healthy and WR Jonathan Mingo is an inconsistent-but-productive big-play deep threat.
• TE Hayden Hurst has a typical Hurst-y season.
• LT Ikem Ekwonu takes a second-year leap, and RG Austin Corbett returns to action after Week 2 and looks like himself right away.
• EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos slightly improves in his fourth season, and EDGE Justin Houston racks up double-digit sacks.
• DT Derrick Brown has a Pro Bowl campaign.
• LBs Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu play just well enough in coverage not to be total liabilities. 
• S/CB Jeremy Chinn outmuscles power slot WRs as the team’s full-time nickel corner and steps up as a run defender given his proximity to the line of scrimmage.
• SS Vonn Bell becomes the vocal and emotional leader of a secondary that starts to call itself “Shutdown Central.” 
• K Eddy Piñeiro converts every kick but one all year. 
• Panthers finish 11-6, win the NFC South, beat the Cowboys and Lions in the first two rounds of the playoffs and then lose by 17 points to the Eagles in the NFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Panthers as a moderate “bet against” team. It’s not as if the only time I fade them will be Week 1, but it’s notable that HC Frank Reich has been especially poor in season openers.

• Reich in Week 1: 0-4-1 ATS (79.5% ROI for faders)
• Reich in Week 1: 0-4-1 ML (93.7% ROI for faders)

If I am to bet on the Panthers this year, it will likely be when they’re on the road.

• Reich on Road: 22-16-2 ATS (11.7% ROI)
• Reich on Road: 18-21-1 ML (5.5% ROI) 

The Panthers will also have my attention in primetime and off the bye.

• Reich in Primetime: 10-2 ATS (60.7% ROI)
• Reich in Primetime: 8-4 ML (56.2% ROI)
• Reich off Bye: 3-0-1 ATS (72.0% ROI)
• Reich off Bye: 4-0 ML (70.2% ROI)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a low-hold market on the Panthers to make the playoffs.

• Make Playoffs: +205 (DraftKings)
• Miss Playoffs: -210 (BetMGM)

But I don’t have a strong lean on the Panthers either way. I do, though, have a strong lean on the season-long market for WR Adam Thielen.

Adam Thielen Under 4.5 Touchdowns Receiving (-125, BetMGM) 

I have Thielen projected for 4.2 touchdowns. There are so many ways for the under to hit.

The Panthers could be bad on offense. They could be good on offense but choose to run the ball near the end zone. They could be good on offense and choose to pass near the end zone but opt to throw to players other than Thielen. Plus, Thielen could simply be bad this year.

In each of the past five years, his efficiency has declined.

• 2018: 9.0 yards per target | 2.10 yards per route
• 2019: 8.7 yards per target | 2.08 yards per route
• 2020: 8.6 yards per target | 1.86 yards per route
• 2021: 7.6 yards per target | 1.63 yards per route
• 2022: 6.7 yards per target | 1.08 yards per route

At 33 years old, Thielen could struggle to draw the targets he did with the Vikings. 

Since he became a full-time player in 2016, Thielen has gone over 4.5 touchdowns in six of seven seasons. But the Panthers aren’t the Vikings, and I think that Thielen is no longer Thielen.

You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!