2023 Chicago Bears Betting Preview

Last year, the Chicago Bears fell from 6-11 to 3-14 and finished with the NFL’s worst record in GM Ryan Poles’ and HC Matt Eberflus’ first season… and yet 2022 felt significantly better than 2021.

The team was objectively worse, dropping from a point differential of -96 to -137, and the defense (Eberflus’ side of the ball) was atrocious, ranking No. 32 in points allowed after Poles traded away three Pro Bowlers (EDGEs Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, LB Roquan Smith). 

But the team began the painful process of rebuilding, it saw enough from second-year QB Justin Fields to be encouraged about his potential and development and then this offseason it added pieces to the offense to support Fields while also trading away the No. 1 pick in order to stockpile assets for the future.

As bad as 2022 was, it was kind of a success in that it set the team up for 2023 and beyond.

This year, the Bears hope to see continued progression from Fields, an offense that moves the ball through the air, a defense that is aggressive if not average and a team that makes a push to the postseason — and just maybe wins the NFC North.

In this 2023 Bears preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Bears preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 3. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 3. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 3.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 3.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 3.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Ryan Poles
• Head Coach: Matt Eberflus
• Team Power Rating: -2.0
• Team Power Ranking: No. 22
• Coach Ranking: No. 27

Poles joined the Bears in 2022 as GM after 13 years with the Chiefs, where he served under three different GM regimes and worked his way up from scouting assistant (2009) and college scouting coordinator (2010-16) to director of college scouting (2017), assistant director of player personnel (2018-20) and finally executive director of player personnel (2021).

As the coordinator and director of college scouting, Poles played a key role in the evaluating and ultimately drafting of many players who have contributed to the Chiefs’ success over the past 10 years. And in his time in the player personnel office, he helped GM Doug Veach with contracts and trades. Poles has put in his time, learned from one of the league’s best GMs and earned his opportunity.

He has mostly been impressive as Bears GM. Upon joining the team, Poles could’ve chosen to divest himself of Fields, who struggles as a rookie. Instead, he has tried to surround Fields with more talent.

Selecting WR Velus Jones on Day 2 of his first draft was a questionable decision even at the time, but snagging LT Braxton Jones on Day 3 was fantastic. Trading the No. 1 pick — in a draft without a clear no-doubt No. 1 QB — in exchange for two first- and two second-round picks, as well as No. 1 WR D.J. Moore, was a shrewd move.

Signing off-ball LBs T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds this offseason felt like a waste of resources. Acquiring WR Chase Claypool for what turned out to be the No. 32 pick was bad process, but at least the motivating factor — upgrading the WR position to help Fields — was sensical.

Trading away defensive stalwarts in Mark, Quinn and Smith was a sign that Poles had an accurate read on the state of his roster and was committed to rebuilding the team right away. 

The Bears are still some distance from daylight, but it looks like Poles has a candle and maybe a torch. It remains to be seen if he has a long-term HC.

I don’t blame Eberflus (at least not entirely) for how poorly the team played last year. The offense and defense were both bottom-five in yards. The passing offense and defense were both No. 32 in net yards per attempt.

The 2022 season was bad. But that was an unfortunate albeit necessary byproduct of rebuilding the roster and experimenting with personnel.

The team should be better in 2023, especially the offense.

But that’s not Eberflus’ side of the ball — and if a defensive HC doesn’t have a good defense for his first two years in a job, then what’s the point of having him?

Eberflus is a good defensive coach. In 2017, the Colts defense was No. 30 in scoring. And then Eberflus joined the team as DC in 2018, and immediately the defense was No. 10. In his four years with the Colts, the defense was top-10 three times.

His defenses are fundamentally sound. He tends to rely on zone coverage and doesn’t blitz aggressively because he doesn’t want to expose his players. He tries to maximize the impact of his players’ strengths and minimize the impact of their weaknesses: He doesn’t ask them to do something they can’t do. His defense — based partially on the old-school Tampa-2, which he picked up from DCs Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli while working as a heralded LBs coach on the Cowboys (2011-17) — is about surviving to play another down.

Eberflus is good. But he’s not Bill Belichick, Vic Fangio or maybe even Brandon Staley. He’s not a defensive innovator. He’s just a guy who can put together an above-average defense, as long as his players aren’t terrible — but his players might be terrible this year. (They were last year.)

If Eberflus’ defense doesn’t improve in 2023, Poles might eventually ask himself this question: “Would I rather have a guy who can put together an above-average defense?… or an above-average offense?”

The answer to that question probably wouldn’t go in Eberflus’ favor.

Matt Eberflus coaching record

• Years: 1
• Playoffs: 0
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 0-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -2.5
• Regular Season: 3-14 (.176)
• Playoff Record: 0-0 (NA)
• Against the Spread: 5-12 ATS (-44.0% ROI)
• Moneyline: 3-14 (-47.5% ROI)
• Over/Under: 10-7 (12.9% ROI, Over)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Luke Getsy
• Offensive Playcaller: Luke Getsy
• OL Coach: Chris Morgan
• QBs Coach: Andrew Janocko
• RBs Coach: David Walker
• Passing Game Coordinator/WRs Coach: Tyke Tolbert
• TEs Coach: Jim Dray
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Getsy is something of an enigma. His offense last year was Nos. 1 and 32 in rushing and passing, but that almost certainly had more to do with Fields and his abilities and supporting cast than with how Getsy likes to run an offense. The 2024 season should give us much more insight into Getsy as a schemer and play-caller, given that last year was his first as an NFL OC.

A two-year starting QB at Akron, Getsy coached in the college ranks for seven years before joining the Packers, where he worked his way up from offensive quality control (2014-15) to WRs coach (2016-17) and then — after one year as the Mississippi State OC/WRs coach — QBs coach (2019-21) and passing game coordinator (2020-21). Given his history, Getsy will want to lean much more into the passing game in 2024… but the offense that the Packers ran with QB Aaron Rodgers is not likely to translate to the Bears with Fields. At least he returns all of his position coaches.

Dec 24, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs with the ball against the Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Morgan has been coaching since 2000 and in the NFL since 2009. While he has worked under some undistinguished HCs and OCs, he was the assistant OL coach and then OL coach under OC Kyle Shanahan on the 2011-13 Commanders and 2015-16 Falcons, so he and Getsy have some common coaching DNA, given that Packers HC Matt LaFleur — Getsy’s former boss — worked with Morgan as the QBs coach in Washington and Falcons. 

Janocko was a walk-on backup QB at the University of Pittsburgh who did three years under HC Greg Schiano after graduation (2011 Rutgers, 2012-13 Buccaneers) and one year at Mercyhurst as the QBs coach (2014) before sticking with the Vikings for seven years (2015-21) and working his way up from offensive quality control (2015-16) and assistant OL coach (2017-19) to WRs coach (2021) and QBs coach (2021). He joined the Bears last year in his current role.

Walker was the 2004-10 RBs coach at the University of Pittsburgh when Janocko was there (2007-10). After that, he did a stint with the Colts (2011-14) and Lions (2016-18) before joining the Bears last year.

Tolbert has been an NFL WRs coach for the past 20 years for six different teams (2003 Cardinals, 2004-09 Bills, 2010 Panthers, 2011-17 Broncos, 2018-21 Giants, 2022 Bears). His 2012-16 Broncos WR units were especially strong.

Dray was an NFL TE for eight years (2010-17) before getting into coaching. He joined the Bears last year after four seasons at Stanford (2018 assistant), Browns (2019 quality control) and Cardinals (2020-21).

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Alan Williams
• DL Coach: Travis Smith
• LBs Coach: Dave Borgonzi
• CBs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Jon Hoke
• Safeties Coach: Andre Curtis
• Notable Turnover: DBs Coach James Rowe (USF)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Williams was a college coach for 15 years before jumping to the NFL, where he learned the Tampa-2 defense from HC Tony Dungy, first as an assistant (2001 Buccaneers) and then as his DBs coach (2002-11 Colts). After an underwhelming two-year stint as the 2012-13 Vikings DC, he returned to the DBs coach position and did four years each with the 2014-17 Lions (under former Colts HC Jim Caldwell ) and 2018-21 Colts (where he first worked with Eberflus) before following him to the Bears as his DC.

This isn’t all on Williams, but in his three seasons as DC his unit has been average once (No. 14) and then No. 32 in scoring twice. At least he returns most of his position coaches.

Smith spent 10 years with the Raiders (2012-21) before joining the Bears last year, working his way up from defensive assistant to assistant DL coach, in which capacity he worked under DL coach Rod Marinelli, who was on the 2001 Buccaneers staff with Williams and the 2013-17 Cowboys with Eberflus. 

Borgonzi was a brainy Amherst LB who coached at 2006-07 Syracuse (graduate assistant) and 2008-10 Harvard (DBs coach) before working with Eberflus as an assistant on the 2011-13 Cowboys. After an extended quality control engagement with the Buccaneers (2014-17), Borgonzi reunited in 2018 with Eberflus and met Williams on the Colts, where he oversaw one of the league’s best LB units for four years. Naturally, he followed Eberflus to the Bears in 2022.

Hoke has been coaching football since before I was born, and I’m no longer young. After 20 years in the college ranks, he jumped to the NFL as a DBs coach with the Texans (2002-08) and then served the same role with the 2009-14 Bears.

Since then, he has meandered his way between college and NFL. He worked with Borgonzi on the 2017-18 Buccaneers as the DBs coach and most recently was the 2021-22 Falcons secondary coach before being brought back to Chicago this offseason.

Curtis has been coaching since 2000 and in the NFL since 2006. Before joining the Bears last year, he did seven seasons with the Seahawks (2015-21) and worked his way up from assistant secondary coach (2015-16)  to defensive passing game coordinator (2018-21).

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Richard Hightower
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Carlos Polk

Hightower got into the NFL via 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan, with whom he was friends and teammates at the University of Texas. When Shanahan joined the Texans in 2006, he helped Hightower get on the staff as a coaching assistant, and since then Hightower has been on various staffs with Shanahan in 13 seasons.

One of the years he wasn’t with Shanahan was 2016, when he was an assistant ST coach with the Bears, after which he was the 2017-21 49ers ST coordinator before returning to the Bears last year, when the Bears improved from No. 28 to No. 16 in special teams DVOA.

Polk played LB and special teams in the NFL for eight years (2001-08) before getting into coaching. In the NFL, he has been an assistant ST coach for five different teams (2010-12 Chargers, 2014-18 Buccaneers, 2019 Cowboys, 2021 Jaguars, and 2022 Bears).

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Justin Fields
• Backups: P.J. Walker, Nathan Peterman
• Notable Turnover: QB Trevor Siemian (Bengals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Justin Fields is a 2021 first-rounder who entered college as a five-star No. 1 dual-threat recruit and exited it three years later with two phenomenal starting seasons at Ohio State (10.8 adjusted yards per attempt, 5,373 yards and 63 TDs passing to 9 INTs).

He struggled as a rookie under walking-dead HC Matt Nagy and OC Bill Lazor (58.9% completion rate, 5.8 AY/A), but last year he improved as a passer (60.4%, 6.6 AY/A) and exploded as a runner with 160-1,143-8 rushing, setting an NFL record for most single-game rushing yards by a QB with 178 in Week 9. He had a league-high 55 sacks and 16 fumbles and will need to continue to progress as a passer in 2023, but he has a Brobdingnagian ceiling and now a group of average-ish pass catchers.

P.J. Walker is a 28-year-old journeyman who was an offseason/practice squad player for the 2017-19 Colts before he found temporary glory with the 2020 Roughnecks in the XFL as the league leader in passing yards and touchdowns. After the spring league closed its shutters in the wake of the pandemic, Walker signed with the Panthers and started seven games for them as a backup-turned-starter-turned-backup over the next three years before joining the Bears this offseason.

Although Walker is theoretically similar to Fields with his dual-threat skill set, he bears little resemblance to Fields in actuality: In the NFL, he has run neither frequently (18 carries) nor effectively (2.8 yards per attempt), and he’s somehow worse as a passer than Fields is (57.5% completion rate, 4.7 AY/A). 

The Bears need to hope that Walker doesn’t start for them this year… but, then again, at least he’s not Nathan Peterman, a 29-year-old veteran who threw five interceptions in his first NFL start in 2017 and completed only 56% of his 25 attempts for the Bears last season. He must be smart and knowledgeable about football, because he’s not good at it.

Projections as of Aug. 3.

Running Backs

• Starter: Khalil Herbert
• Backups: D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer
• Fullback: Khari Blasingame
• Notable Turnover: David Montgoery (Lions)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Khalil Herbert is a 2021 sixth-rounder who will get the chance to lead the Bears backfield now that David Montgomery is gone. With sufficient size (5-foot-9 and 210 pounds) and good athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash, 6.96-second three-cone), he flashed as a backup and change-of-pace option over the past two years with 1,317 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage — but he is not a strong receiver (5.5 yards per target) and is unproven as an NFL lead back.

D'Onta Foreman is a 27-year-old journeyman whose career was sidetracked in 2018 with an Achilles tear, but he returned to action in 2020 and has been a serviceable No. 2 RB and committee member over the past two years with 1,629 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage with the 2021 Titans and 2022 Panthers. Built like a lead back (6-foot and 235 pounds), he could push Herbert for early-down work. 

Roschon Johnson is a four-star fourth-round rookie who entered the University of Texas as a dual-threat QB but shifted to RB as a freshman because of team need and then backed up Bijan Robinson in his final three seasons. With 2,610 yards and 26 touchdowns from scrimmage, Johnson was an efficient producer on limited usage (392 carries, 56 receptions), and he has the straight-ahead style and pass-blocking fortitude that could help him see the field early.

Travis Homer joins the Bears this season after four years with the Seahawks. A core special teamer with above-average pass-catching ability (32-318-1 receiving, 8.4 yards per target since 2021), he could carve out work as a three-down back.

Khari Blasingame signed with the Bears last year after three seasons with the Titans. He balled out in 2022 on special teams (89.2 PFF grade) and was sufficient as a lead blocker. A statistical nonentity, he has 13 targets and three carries for his career but had zero touches last year.

Projections as of Aug. 3.

Wide receivers and tight ends

• WR Starters: D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool
• WR Backups: Equanimeous St. Brown, Tyler Scott, Velus Jones
• TE Starter: Cole Kmet
• TE Backup: Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis
• Borderline: WR Dante Pettis and TE Jake Tonges
• Notable Turnover: WRs Byron Pringle (Commanders) and N’Keal Harry (free agent), TEs Trevon Wesco (Titans) and Ryan Griffin (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

D.J. Moore joined the Bears this offseason via the trade that sent the No. 1 pick to the Panthers, where he was productive (5,201 yards receiving, 335 yards rushing) and efficient (8.4 yards per target, 8.6 yards per carry) for the first five years of his career despite dealing with subpar QB play for the supermajority of his time there.

An underappreciated No. 1 receiver, he instantly upgrades the entire offense with his playmaking ability and provides the franchise with a real chance to evaluate Fields as a passer.

Darnell Mooney is a 2020 fifth-rounder who played well as a rookie (631 yards, four TDs receiving), capitalized on a talent vacuum in 2021 to emerge as the team’s No. 1 WR (1,055 yards on 140 targets) and then regressed in 2022 before missing the final five games to injury (493 yards, two TDs receiving).

With Moore on the roster, Mooney will slide into his more natural No. 2 role, and he’ll have opportunities to leverage his speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) against diminished defensive attention.

Chase Claypool joined the team last year via a midseason trade with the Steelers, where he flashed in his first two seasons (121-1,733-11 receiving on 8.1 yards per target, 24-112-2 rushing) but underwhelmed in the first half of 2022 (366 yards, one TD from scrimmage) before arriving in Chicago and somehow doing even worse (144 yards, zero TDs in seven games).

He has an elite athletic profile (4.42-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 238 pounds) but has underdelivered on the promise of his potential and the price of the draft pick sent to acquire him (No. 32 in 2023). Still, as a No. 3 WR he’s an asset.

Equanimeous St. Brown (Amon-Ra’s brother) is a 26-year-old size/speed specimen (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 214 pounds) who put up only 21-323-1 receiving in 16 starts last year in his first Bears campaign after four seasons with the Packers, where he worked closely with Getsy.

He’s an explosive deep threat (8.3 yards per target) and productive occasional runner (7.3 yards per carry), but he’s best as a situational No. 4 WR.

Tyler Scott is a 2023 fourth-rounder who is small (5-foot-10 and 177 pounds) and not fast for his size (4.44-second 40-yard dash), but he was the No. 1 WR last year for Cincinnati with 54-899-9 receiving. He could rotate periodically in the slot. 

Velus Jones is an overdrafted 2022 third-round gadget player who had just 7-107-1 receiving on 14 targets and 9-103-1 rushing last year despite entering the league as a four-star 25-year-old rookie with elite speed (4.31-second 40-yard dash), especially for his size (6-foot and 204 pounds) — but he is a good return man. In a best-of-world scenario, he develops into a version of Cordarrelle Patterson, but that won’t happen this year.

Dante Pettis is a 27-year-old journeyman who played a career-high 523 snaps last year in his first season with the Bears and was the team’s primary punt returner, but he had a catch rate of only 46.3%. The additions of Moore, Claypool and Scott over the past year could push Pettis off the roster.

Cole Kmet is a 2020 second-rounder who just signed this offseason a four-year $50M extension with almost $37.8M guaranteed. That feels like a lot of money, but given Kmet’s age (24 years), recruitment pedigree (four stars), college production (43-515-6 receiving in 10 games at Notre Dame in final season), NFL production over the past two years (110-1,156-7 receiving), sufficiency as a blocker (65.1 PFF run blocking grade, 66.1 pass blocking grade last year) and ability to play inline and in the slot — as well as the general TE developmental curve — he could end up outplaying his contract.

Robert Tonyan is a 29-year-old veteran joining the Bears this year after spending the past six seasons with the Packers. His 2020 season with 52-586-11 receiving on 59 targets is a total outlier, but he has some explosiveness to his game (8.2 yards per target for career) and knows Getsy’s offense well, as does Lewis, a Methuselah-aged inline blocker and red-zone receiver who just signed with the Bears after five years with the Packers (2018-22) and 12 years with the Jaguars (2006-17). He should be able to hold off Tonges, a 2022 undrafted free agent who played just 16 snaps as a rookie.

Projections as of Aug. 3.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Braxton Jones, LG Teven Jenkins, C Cody Whitehair, RG Nate Davis, RT Darnell Wright
• Backups: T/G Larry Borom, G/C Lucas Patrick, G/T Alex Leatherwood, OG Ja’Tyre Carter
• Notable Turnover: C Sam Mustipher (Ravens), RT Riley Reiff (Patriots), OG Michael Schofield (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Jones is a 2022 fifth-rounder who started 17 games on the blindside as a rookie and was strong in run blocking and pass protection with his overall 75.4 PFF grade. He has All-Pro potential. Jenkins is a 2021 second-rounder who was miserable at LT as a rookie but more than competent — especially as a run blocker (82.2 PFF grade) — at RG last year.

He’s still a liability in pass blocking, but he’ll shift to LG this season to replace Whitehair, who’s transitioning back to C, where he played primarily for the first half-decade of his career before stepping into the LG role in 2021. At 31 years old, Whitehair has been an average-at-worst player since the Bears drafted him in 2016, but — like Jenkins — he is better on running plays than dropbacks.

Davis joins the Bears this year after four seasons starting with the Titans. He has been an above-average run blocker for a while, but 2022 was his first time to exhibit some competency as a pass blocker (only 14 pressures in 12 games), and he’s at risk of regression in that phase. Wright is a five-star first-round rookie who was a run-game monster in college but a pass-game net neutral.

He exhibited great athleticism at the combine (5.01-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 333 pounds)… and then he showed up to training camp in the best shape of his life. If he can improve in pass protection, he’ll be a major asset right away.

Borom is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has been almost adequate but certainly unexceptional in his 17 starts for the Bears over the past two seasons (64.7 PFF grade last year, 61.4 the year prior). He is best as an occasional swing tackle, not a half-the-season starter.

Patrick is a Getsy import who joined the Bears last year after six seasons with the Packers, where he started 28 games in 2020-21. He made five starts for the Bears in 2022, can play all three interior spots and knows the offense, but he’s a bad pass blocker (16 pressures on 138 opportunities last year) and an average-at-best run blocker.

Leatherwood is a 24-year-old reclamation projection who entered Alabama as a top-10 five-star recruit, left it as a 2020 Outland Trophy-winning All-American, and entered the NFL as a 2021 first-rounder… and then the Raiders cut him after one year, and the Bears picked him up. He was terrible as a rookie, especially in pass protection (67 pressures on 721 opportunities), but he has been average as a run blocker and was marginally better last year in limited pass snaps (20). He’s a low-risk option for the Bears.

Carter is a 2022 seventh-rounder who played just 31 snaps last year at RG but was an intriguing stonewall in his 19 pass-blocking snaps (zero pressures). 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Yannick Ngakoue, DeMarcus Walker
• EDGE Backups: Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, Rasheem Green
• DT Starters: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings
• DT Backups: Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens
• Borderline: DTs Travis Bell and Bravvion Roy
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Al-Quadin Muhammad (Colts) and Robert Quinn (free agent), DTs Armon Watts (Steelers), Angelo Blackson (Ravens) and Mike Pennel (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Ngakoue just signed a one-year deal with $10M guaranteed to be the team’s No. 1 pass rusher. While it feels as if he has been in the league forever as a gun for hire — the Bears are his sixth team since 2019 — Ngakoue is still only 28 years old. He has made the Pro Bowl just once, but never has he had fewer than eight sacks in a season. He’s subpar against the run (43.7 PFF grade last year), but he should improve a defense that was No. 32 with only 20 sacks in 2022.

Walker joins the Bears after six years with the Broncos (2017-20), Texans (2021) and Titans (2022). He opened his career as more of a DT and still has interior utility, but he has lined up more at edge over the past two seasons. He is functional in run defense (68.7 PFF grade last year) and pass rush (17.5 sacks since 2019) but is more of a rotational player than a starter.

Gipson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who intrigued in 2021 with seven sacks while playing alongside Quinn and Mack, but as the team’s top pass rusher in 2022 he tallied just three sacks while ignoring all of his run-game responsibilities (39.7 PFF grade). Robinson is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played a lot (549 snaps) and did little (1.5 sacks, 30 tackles) as a rookie. Green joins the team after five years with the Seahawks (2018-21) and Texans (2022). He has 10 sacks over the past two years but has never had a PFF run defense grade of 65.

Jones led the interior DL last year with 746 snaps in his first season with the team and is the lone holdover from the 2022 DT core — but he’s poor in run defense (43.4 PFF grade last year) and mediocre in pass rush (seven sacks in four years as a starter). Billings is a 28-year-old offseason addition who can play in both the A and B gaps. He has just one sack over the past two years but is a plus run defender.

Dexter has elite physical traits (4.88-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 310 pounds) but raw technique in both phases. Pickens also has good athleticism (4.89-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 291 pounds) but lacks the strength to anchor as a two-gap defender. Given that the Bears have unproven interior depth, they might choose to keep a fifth DT, which would likely be Bell or Roy.

Bell is a small-school seventh-round rookie with good strength (30 bench-press reps). Roy is a 2020 sixth-rounder whom the Panthers just waived after three seasons of subpar play: He has just one sack and has never had a PFF grade of even 50. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds
• Backups: Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, Dylan Cole 
• Notable Turnover: Roquan Smith (Ravens), Nicholas Morrow (Eagles), Joe Thomas (free agent), Matthew Adams (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Edwards signed a three-year deal this offseason with $7.9M guaranteed after four seasons with the Eagles. Strong as a run defender, cover man and blitzer, Edwards is one of the league’s best LBs yet to make a Pro Bowl. Edmunds — a two-time Pro Bowler (2019-20) — got the bigger contract (four years, $50M guaranteed) because of his youth (25), pedigree (2018 first-rounder) and gaudy tackle totals (565 in five years), but Edwards is the more complete player. Only once has Edmunds had a PFF coverage grade above 57.5.

Sanborn is 2022 UDFA who was respectable last year on 330 snaps (64 tackles, 67.8 PFF coverage grade). Sewell is a 21-year-old five-star rookie fifth-rounder who started all three seasons at Oregon. He’s a classic-style LB who’s better against the run than in coverage and a better football player than athlete.

Cole is a terrible defensive player (53.3 PFF grade last year on a career-high 439 snaps), but he’s a longtime special teams ace who’s joining the Bears on a one-year deal after six seasons with the Texans (2017-20) and Titans (2021-22).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson
• CB Backups: Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Terell Smith
• S Starters: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker
• S Backups: Elijah Hicks, Kendall Williamson
• Borderline: CB Josh Blackwell
• Notable Turnover: S DeAndre Houston-Carson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Johnson is a 2020 second-rounder with league-average perimeter skills. He hasn’t allowed a catch rate of 60% in any season, but he also has only one interception in 39 starts. Gordon is a 2022 second-rounder who had a rough rookie season as the team’s nickel corner (10.3 yards per target).

He supports in the run game (71 tackles last year) but needs to improve in coverage. Stevenson is a four-star second-round rookie with a good athletic profile (4.45-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 198 pounds) and the physicality to press WRs, but he had just 11 passes defended in his two seasons as a starter at Miami.

Vildor is a 2020 fifth-rounder who has forfeited 10 touchdowns and captured just one interception in three years. Jones is a 2022 UDFA who struggled to a 48.4 PFF grade last season on 466 snaps. Smith is a fifth-round rookie with a desirable size/speed profile (4.41-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds) and physical playing style, but he can be outmaneuvered by shifty route runners.

All three will likely stew in the cauldron of competition with Blackwell, a 2022 UDFA who was livable in coverage (66.4 PFF grade) and on special teams (61.1) last year.  

Jackson is a 2017 fourth-round center fielder who is inconsistent in coverage (career-high PFF grade of 94.7, career-low PFF grade of 55.8) but routinely good against the run. Brisker is a 2022 second-round boxer who had a promising rookie year (67.0 PFF grade).

Hicks is a 2022 seventh-rounder who allowed three touchdowns and 106 yards on four targets last season. Williamson is a four-star seventh-round rookie who started four years at Stanford and has some corner/safety versatility, but he’s more of a run stopper (197 tackles since 2019) than a cover man (only 10 passes defended in four years).

Specialists

• Kicker: Cairo Santos
• Punter: Trenton Gill
• Holder: Trenton Gill
• Long Snapper: Patrick Scales
• Kick Returner: Velus Jones
• Punt Returner: Velus Jones
• Borderline: K Andre Szmyt, KR Trestan Ebner, PR Dante Pettis

Santos is a 31-year-old veteran who has been accurate (90.6% field goal rate) if not long (6-of-10 converting kicks of 50-plus yards) since joining the Bears in 2020. He’s likely to keep the No. 1 K job, but there’s no guarantee he’ll beat out Szmyt, a rookie UDFA who struggled later in college amidst coaching and holder changes but was an All-American Groza Award winner as a freshman with an 88.2% conversion rate.

Gill is a 2022 seventh-rounder who was No. 23 with 46.0 yards per punt last year and No. 27 with 30.3% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Scales has been long snapping for the Bears since 2015. He was subpar last year (51.5 PFF grade) but had marks above 60 in each of the five previous seasons.

Jones was an All-SEC specialist in 2021, when he averaged 27.3 yards per kick return and 15.1 yards per punt return, and last year — as the team’s primary kick returner — he was No. 3 in the NFL with 27.6 yards per return. I think he’s likely to hold off Ebner for kick return duties and to take Pettis’ punt return duties, which should kick Ebner and Pettis off the roster: If the Bears liked Ebner and Pettis, they wouldn’t have added RBs D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer and WRs D.J. Moore and Tyler Scott this offseason.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Bears’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 5
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 8-12
• Opponents: at LAC, at NO, vs. CAR, at DET, at MIN

The Bears have the fifth-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents, but they don’t have their bye until Week 13, and they have a tough four-of-five away right before it.

In Week 8, they go on the road as big underdogs to face the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and then they go to New Orleans to play the Saints, once again as underdogs.

They’re favored in Week 10 at home against the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, but playing on four days of rest after back-to-back road games isn’t great, and it’s unlucky for them that they don’t get the Panthers earlier in the year, when rookie QB Bryce Young is likely to be less acclimated to the NFL. And then in Weeks 11-12 they have back-to-back road games as underdogs against divisional opponents in the Lions and Vikings.

There’s a chance the Bears could go on an 0-5 run right before the Week 13 bye. Needless to say, that negative momentum would destroy their motivation for the final month of the season. If they’re to stay competitive for the duration of the campaign, they’ll need to go at least 2-3 in that stretch.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bears.

• HC Matt Eberflus oversees a bottom-of-the-barrel defense once again.
• OC Luke Getsy fails to translate an offense built for a Hall of Fame pocket passer into one suited for a run-leaning dual threat.
• QB Justin Fields refuses to throw the ball when he could run it and so never develops as a passer.
• RB Khalil Herbert breaks down as a lead back, and no one in the backfield committee behind him is talented enough to play a three-down role.
• WR D.J. Moore doesn’t establish any chemistry with Fields.
• TE Cole Kmet gets too many targets at the expense of Moore and the team’s other WRs. 
• The OL — with the exception of LT Braxton Jones — is a pass blocking travesty.
• EDGE Yannick Ngakoue gets no pass rushing support from the rest of the DL and resultantly has fewer than eight sacks for the first time in his career. 
• The interior DL — except for DT Andrew Billings — is a run defense catastrophe.
• LBs T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds turn out to be fine… and it still doesn’t matter.
• CB Kyler Gordon doesn’t improve in his second season in the slot and CB Tyrique Stevenson plays like a rookie.
• FS Eddie Jackson has one of his low-grade pass defense campaigns.
• K Cairo Santos loses a camp battle to rookie Andre Szmyt, who has a terrible first-year performance.
• Bears go 5-12, fail to get a top-five pick, fire HC Matt Eberflus and convince Lovie Smith to return to Chicago as the 2024 HC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bears.

• HC Matt Eberflus coaxes his defense into the ranks of the respectably subpar. 
• OC Luke Getsy builds an offense that is grounded in the running game but efficient through the air and streamlined enough for a young passer to operate quickly.
• QB Justin Fields wins Offensive Player of the Year, sets the record for most QB rushing yards in a season with 1,500, and finishes with a top-10 AY/A.
• RB Khalil Herbert puts up 1,000 scrimmage yards as an effective No. 2 option in the running game behind Fields.
• WR D.J. Moore has a career-high 1,250 yards from scrimmage thanks to his heavy use on RPOs, screens, designed deep shots and jet sweeps. 
• TE Cole Kmet has 10 touchdowns receiving as a red-zone weapon.
• The OL run blocks magnificently and pass blocks just well enough to be functional within the quick-strike scheme.
• EDGE Yannick Ngakoue has a career-high 14 sacks and helps everyone else on the DL improve as a pass rusher in a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats fashion.
• The interior DL does just enough in run defense to avoid being a catastrophe.
• LBs T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds lock down the middle of the field in coverage, which makes life easier on the secondary.
• CBs Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson live up to their Day 2 draft capital.
• FS Eddie Jackson makes his third Pro Bowl.
• K Cairo Santos loses a camp battle to rookie Andre Szmyt, who has a top-five season and hits multiple high-leverage kicks from 50-plus yards.
• Bears go 11-6, win the NFC North, beat the Lions in Chicago on Super Wild Card Weekend and then lose by 18 points to the 49ers in San Francisco in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Bears as a slight “bet on” team and specifically an over team.

Once they began disassembling the defense last year — starting in Week 8, when they traded EDGE Robert Quinn to the Eagles — the Bears were 6-2 (45.2% ROI) to the over in their eight games with QB Justin Fields.

With better pass catchers, Fields is likely to improve this season — perhaps significantly — but the defense still projects to be subpar. With a poor DL and secondary, the Bears could offer little resistance against offenses that lean into the passing game, which could trigger shootouts. In such contests, I’ll be inclined to take the over.

If I were to bet the under in a Bears game, I’d probably do so when they’re favored and facing an offense that isn’t built to exploit their pass defense deficiencies.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the futures markets for the team. I’m not willing to bet that the Bears win the Super Bowl or NFC, and I don’t see enough value in them to win the NFC North.

We do have synthetically low-hold markets for win totals and to make/miss the playoffs.

• Over 8.5 Wins: -122 (FanDuel)
• Under 8.5 Wins: +115 (PointsBet)
• Make Playoffs: +175 (Caesars)
• Miss Playoffs: -180 (DraftKings)

Given the minimal juice in these markets, these lines could be good to leverage if you have any conviction on the Bears one way or another.

But I prefer a bet in the player-prop market.

Justin Fields Over 775.5 Yards Rushing (-115, Caesars)

If you really like the idea of Fields crushing as a runner this year, you could get maximal leverage by betting on him to win Offensive Player of the Year (+2800, FanDuel). I prefer that to MVP, which has shorter odds (+2000 consensus) and I think is actually less likely. If Fields sets the record for single-season rushing yards by a QB, he could be live to win Offensive Player of the Year — but I’m highly skeptical that the Bears will win enough games for Fields to garner real consideration as MVP. Their defense is just too bad.

But there’s one thing I’m confident about: Fields will rush for more than 775.5 yards.

I don’t like betting overs in the player prop market, but this line is so egregiously low that I can’t help myself. I’m yet to see Fields with fewer than 900 yards rushing in any reliable projection set.

I have him projected for 960.9, which is massively regressed from the 1,143 yards he had last year in 15 games. Even if the Bears throw the ball at a higher rate this year, Fields is still likely to use his legs heavily.

You can tail the over on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!