2023 Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

The Cleveland Browns last year hoped to get through the first 11 games of the season with a winning record so that suspended QB Deshaun Watson could return to action, ball out in the final six games and get the team to the playoffs, where their end-of-season momentum could carry the team to a deep postseason run. 

None of that happened. 

The Browns were 4-7 when Watson made his first start, he had the worst season of his career, the team finished fourth in the division at 7-10 and the organization’s preseason thoughts on the playoffs seemed retrospectively quixotic. 

Plus, they had earned the ire of many sports fans by trading for Watson after he was sued by 20-plus women for sexual harassment and sexual assault. 

This year, the Browns still dare to dream of the postseason: Watson is likely to improve in his first full season of playing time with the team, and the defense has been fortified with offseason additions. 

They’d like to win a playoff game at the minimum — multiple postseason victories would be stupendous — and, deep down, even if they won’t admit it, they’d love it if everyone could stop hating them.

In this 2023 Browns preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Browns preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Cleveland Browns offseason odds

Odds as of July 4. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 4. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Browns 2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 4.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 4.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 4.

Cleveland Browns General Manager and Head Coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Andrew Berry
• Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski
• Team Power Rating: +1
• Team Power Ranking: No. 13
• Coach Ranking: No. 24

Berry is the Sashi Brown who actually knows football. Like Brown, Berry went to Harvard, where he got a bachelor’s degree in economics and a master’s degree in computer science. He’s an intellectual with a numbers-based perspective on the game. Unlike Brown, Berry also has hands-on knowledge of the game. He played cornerback in college and participated in an NFL rookie minicamp. 

Also unlike Brown (a lawyer and strategist), Berry is a personnel man. After leaving Harvard, he joined the Colts as a low-level scouting assistant (2009-10), worked as a scout (2011) and then advanced to pro scouting coordinator (2012-15). He’s like Brown — but better.

That’s probably why Brown — then the executive VP of football operations (de facto GM) for the Browns — hired Berry as his lieutenant (VP of player personnel) in 2016. 

When Sashi got fired the next year, Berry survived the transition to GM John Dorsey (a former NFL LB who’s almost the anti-Sashi as an executive), but a carpenter doesn’t want to work for a hammer, so he left the Browns after one more year to join the 2019 Eagles, who gave him a bigger title (VP of football operations), more responsibility and an unrivaled opportunity to work with and learn from respected GM Howie Roseman. 

With this final season of seasoning, Berry was ready to be a GM, so the Browns — hoping that he would be the guy they originally thought Sashi was — brought him back in 2020, making him (then 32 years old) the youngest GM in NFL history.

Like most GMs, Berry has had mixed results. In 2020, the Browns jumped from 6-10 to 11-5 and won a playoff game. Since then, they have progressively declined with 8-9 and 7-10 records. Berry likely made sharp long-term moves in parting with WR Odell Beckham in 2021 and QB Baker Mayfield in 2022, and he’s a savvy accumulator of discounted veteran talent — but trading for QB Deshaun Watson last year was a questionable move, especially considering all the Browns had to give up (2022 first- and fourth-rounders, 2023 first- and third-rounders, and 2024 first- and fourth-rounders), plus the fully guaranteed $230M.

Every strength is a weakness. Berry’s strength — relative to Sashi — is that he’s a football guy. But that’s also his weakness. Trading for Watson was a “football guy” move. Based on what Watson can do on the field, the move made sense. He theoretically makes the team better. With him, the Browns are on-paper Super Bowl contenders. And the move could work out in the long term. With Watson, the Browns might win a Super Bowl.

But as a football guy, Berry didn’t seem to understand all the off-field ramifications the move would have and how those might eventually impact the team and its performance. The Browns — Berry and owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam — seemed genuinely surprised at the immediate outrage within and without the league when they made the trade. They should’ve expected it and had a plan for it.

Sashi — the lawyer and big-picture thinker — would’ve anticipated and planned for the response. In fact, Sashi — the guy who places a high premium on draft capital and future flexibility — almost certainly wouldn’t have done the deal at all. To be clear: I’m not saying that the Watson trade was a mistake. I’m saying that, if it turns out to be a mistake, it’s one that Sashi likely wouldn’t have made.

Mistake or not, the deal was done, and now it’s on Berry and Stefanski to make it work.

I’m ambivalent at best on Stefanksi. Honestly, I skew negative at the moment. Most football analysts probably would have him ranked higher than the No. 24 HC in the league. He has the reputation of being smart, and he likely is. Like Berry, he’s an Ivy League guy (he played defensive back at Penn before intelligently switching to offense as a coach). But when I look at Stefanski, I see a guy who makes suboptimal decisions. I see a non-sharp Kyle Shanahan. 

Since 2020, the Browns are No. 22 in early-down pass rate (per RBs Don’t Matter). They’re -5% in pass frequency over expected for all plays (last year they were -7%). As a play-caller, Stefanski doesn’t set his offense up for sustained success. The Browns are No. 2 in fourth-down aggressiveness since 2020, and that’s great — but that feels like something that has more to do with the longstanding Sashi/Berry-driven analytics atmosphere in Cleveland than with Stefanski as a decision maker.

As a scheme creator and play designer, Stefanski is good. Since 2020, the Browns are No. 9 in offensive expected points added. But over that same time, they’re No. 16 in success rate, which suggests that Stefanski is a mediocre in-game play sequencer, because the team’s offensive consistency lags its potency. Of the two, consistency is probably more important.

Basically, it feels as if Stefanski has learned the science but not the art of being a play-caller, and that’s understandable for a guy who rose through the ranks as an offensive assistant on a team (2006-19 Vikings) with defense-focused HCs most of his time there. As such, he belongs to no real coaching tree.  

He’s sort of a transplanted sapling of a branch cut from the Andy Reid tree. Side note: I know nothing about dendrology, forestry or “gardentry” or whatever the correct word is for “tree science.” But you get the idea.

Stefanski is tangentially in the Reid lineage. For his first three years with the Vikings (2006-08), he was the assistant to HC Brad Childress, who was Reid’s QBs coach (1999-2001) and OC (2002-05) before joining the Vikings. 

Throughout all of Childress’ tenure (2006-10), first as his assistant and then as assistant QBs coach (2019-13), he worked with RBs coach Eric Bieniemy, who played for Reid in 1999 and later went on to work for him on the Chiefs (2013-17 RBs coach, 2018-22 OC). After short stints as the TEs coach (2014-15) and RBs coach (2016), he worked as the QBs coach (2017-18) under OCs Pat Shurmur and John DeFilippo. 

Shurmur was Reid’s TEs/OL coach (1999-2001) and QBs coach (2002-08) on the Eagles, and DeFilippo was the QBs coach (2016-17) for Eagles HC Doug Pederson, who was Reid’s quality control coach (2009-10) and QBs coach (2011-12) with the Eagles and OC (2013-15) with the Chiefs. 

Stefanski has real Reid tie-ins. His first job in the NFL was as a training camp assistant for the 2005 Eagles. That’s how he met Childress. But he doesn’t feel like Reid in either scheme or playcalling tendencies. He never studied with the master.

Rather, with his outside-zone West Coast scheme and run-first mindset, he feels more like Shanahan, to whom he’s distantly related via Gary Kubiak (who worked for Mike Shanahan on the 1994 49ers and 1995-2005 Broncos and who employed Kyle Shanahan on the 2006-09 Texans). 

Kubiak was the assistant HC and an offensive advisor for the Vikings in 2019, when Stefanski was OC. If anything, it’s a version of Kubiak’s Shanahan-style system that came with Stefanski to Cleveland in 2020.

All of this is to say that Stefanski grew up without a metaphorical football father. He has a wealth of experience. With the Vikings he worked with nine different high-level offensive influences (Childress; OCs Darrell Bevell, Bill Musgrave and Norv Turner; Shurmur, DeFilippo, and Kubiak; and QBs coaches Kevin Rogers and Craig Johnson). But he never had a true offensive mentor — or at least one who stuck around.

He’s a coach finding his way in the NFL world. If I had to bet, I’d bet that he finds it eventually. But he hasn’t found it yet.

Kevin Stefanksi coaching record

• Years: 3
• Playoffs: 1
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 1-2
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -0.33
• Regular Season: 26-24 (.520)
• Playoff Record: 1-1 (.500)
• Against the Spread: 23-28-1 (-12.3% ROI)
• Moneyline: 27-25 (-8.4% ROI)
• Over/Under: 25-17 (-0.1% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs, also includes two games Stefanski missed to COVID. Those games were technically coached by special teams coordinator Mike Priefer, but they were still Stefanski’s teams.

2022 Browns team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Browns offense

• Offensive Coordinator/QBs Coach: Alex Van Pelt
• Offensive Playcaller: Kevin Stefanski
• Senior Assistant: Bill Musgrave
• Senior Assistant: Kevin Rogers
• OL Coach: Bill Callahan
• Run Game Coordinator/RBs Coach: Stump Mitchell
• Pass Game Coordinator/WRs Coach: Chad O’Shea
• TEs Coach: T.C. McCartney
• Notable Turnover: QBs coach Drew Petzing (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Van Pelt was an 11-year NFL backup QB who spent most of his career with the Bills before eventually jumping onto their coaching staff and rising up from quality control coach (2006-07) to QBs coach (2008-09) interim OC (2009). After that, he did a short stint as the Buccaneers QBs coach (2010-11) before catching on with the Packers and mentoring Eddie Lacy to an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign (2012-13 RBs coach) and Aaron Rodgers to an MVP (2014-17 QBs coach). 

From there, he went to the Bengals and worked as QBs coach for two years (2018-19) under HCs Marvin Lewis and Zac Taylor and then joined the Browns in 2020 as the OC and de facto QBs coach (for 2020-21, the Browns didn’t have an official QBs coach). 

Last year, Van Pelt yielded the QBs coach role to Petzing (a Stefanski lieutenant with the Vikings who followed him to the Browns as TEs coach), but with Petzing now gone Van Pelt will again serve as the unofficial QBs coach. That the Browns don’t have an actual QBs coach is the “tell.” Van Pelt dons the OC title and carries out the OC administrative duties — but he’s a glorified QBs coach. Not all kings are kings. Stefanski is the de facto OC.

Musgrave joins the staff this year as a trusted consigliere. He was the 2011-13 Vikings OC when Stefanski was an assistant QBs coach, and he worked with Kubiak (senior personnel advisor) on the 2017-18 Broncos as the OC (2017-18) and QBs coach (2017). 

Dec 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) runs with the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Rogers is another consigliere. He joined the Browns in 2020 and was the Vikings QBs coach for Stefanski’s first five years with the team (2006-10). For Stefanski’s first two years as an assistant QB coach, he reported directly to Rogers.

Callahan has been coaching since 1980 and in the NFL as an OL coach, OC or HC since 1995 (minus his 2004-07 Nebraska HC stint). An an OL coach, he oversaw a dominant unit for the 2012-14 Cowboys, and his Browns line has been similarly strong, ranking No. 1 in second-level rushing yards in each of the past three seasons (per Football Outsiders). 

Mitchell is a 10-year NFL RB alumnus who got 1,000-yard production from his lead backs as the RBs coach for the 1999-2007 Seahawks (Ricky Watters, Shaun Alexander), 2008-09 Redskins (Clinton Portis), 2013-16 Cardinals (Andrew Ellington, David Johnson), and 2017-18 Jets (meh, never mind) before becoming the Browns RBs coach in 2019. 

He has done terrific work with RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Stefanski was wise to carry Mitchell over from previous HC Freddie Kitchens’ staff.

O’Shea and Stefanski were assistants together on the 2006-08 Vikings before he left for the Patriots, where he was the WRs coach for a decade (2009-18). After an unfortunate one-year stint as the Dolphins OC in the “Tank for Tua” season, O’Shea reunited with Stefanski in 2020 as the pass game coordinator and WRs coach.

McCartney was a walk-on LSU QB who transitioned to coaching after graduation. A low-level assistant under Shanahan on the 2014 Browns and 2017-18 49ers, he jumped up to a QBs coach job with the 2019 Broncos but was fired after the season, at which point he joined the Browns as an assistant and then was named the TEs coach last year when Petzing moved to QBs coach.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 Browns defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Jim Schwartz
• DL Coach: Ben Bloom
• LBs Coach: Jason Tarver
• CBs Coach: Brandon Lynch
• Safeties Coach: Ephraim Banda
• Notable Turnover: DC Joe Woods (Saints), DLs coach Chris Kiffin (Texans), pass game coordinator/DBs coach Jeff Howard (Chargers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Schwartz is a sharp outside hire as the DC replacement for Woods, whose 2020-22 Browns defense never ranked inside the top 12 in scoring despite its talent. Schwartz actually got his NFL start as a scout in 1993 with the Browns — the “previous” Browns — and then he served as a LBs coach (1996-98 Ravens, 2000 Titans) before getting his first DC job with the Titans.

In his eight years in that role, his defense finished top-12 in yardage four times and was No. 2 in scoring when he was named Lions HC (2009-13). Although he disappointed with the Lions (29-51 record), he did get the defense from No. 32 in scoring to No. 15 in his final year — and that’s not nothing considering that he took over the first 0-16 team in NFL history. 

In his one year as Bills DC (2014), he took a unit that was No. 20 in scoring to No. 4. As the Eagles DC (2015-20), he took a unit that was No. 28 in scoring to three straight top-12 finishes (and a Super Bowl 52 victory). For years, the Browns have had the players on defense to be an above-average (maybe even elite) unit, and now they have the right DC.

Bloom broke into the NFL from the college ranks with the 2009-10 Browns as a quality control coach before going to the Cowboys (2011-19), where he worked his way up from EDGE/LB assistant to LBs coach (2018-19). From there, he returned to the Browns in 2020 as senior defensive assistant, advanced to run game coordinator in 2021 and then replaced Kiffin this offseason as DL coach.

Tarver started his NFL coaching career with the 49ers as an offensive quality control coach (2001-03) and assistant RBs coach (2004) before switching to outside LBs coach (2005-10). 

Taking the long way home, Tarver left San Francisco to be the 2011 Stanford DC/LBs coach and 2012-14 Raiders DC only to return to the 49ers (2015-17) and serve as the LBs coach for three difference HCs in three seasons (Jim Tomsula, Chip Kelly, Shanahan). After a stint as the 2018-19 Vanderbilt DC/LBs coach, he joined the Browns in 2020 in his current role.

Lynch is an in-house replacement for Howard, whom he worked under for three years as the assistant DBs coach. A practice squad NFL CB who played for three years in the CFL, Lynch was an intern for the 2013 Vikings and secondary/CBs coach at Northern Iowa (2013-16) and East Carolina (2017-19) before joining the Browns in 2020.

Banda is an external hire who will work with Lynch to replace Howard. A college safety who walked onto his first-year program as a 25-year-old, Banda quickly worked his way up the college ranks after graduation and eventually served as DC/safeties coach at Miami (2019-20) and Utah State (2021-22) before jumping to the NFL this offseason.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 Browns special teams

• assistant HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Bubba Ventrone
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Stephen Bravo-Brown
• Notable Turnover: Coordinator Mike Priefer

Ventrone is a 10-year NFL veteran who played safety and special teams before joining the Patriots as assistant special teams coach (2015-17) and then the Colts as coordinator (2018-22). Under Ventrone, Luke Rhodes (2020 second team, 2021 first team), George Odum (2020 first team) and Ashton Dulin (2021 second team) were all named All-Pros as special teamers for the Colts. He’s a competent replacement for Priefer. Bravo-Brown joined the Browns in 2020 as a defensive quality control coach and shifted into the assistant special teams role last season.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Deshaun Watson
• Backups: Joshua Dobbs, Dorian Thompson-Robinson
• Notable Turnover: Jacoby Brissett (Commanders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Deshaun Watson is a three-time Pro Bowler who ranks No. 7 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation over the past five years (+0.128, per RBs Don’t Matter). In his most recent full season (2020) he led the league with 4,823 yards passing, but in his partial 2022 campaign he had a career-worst 58.2% completion rate and 6.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He should improve in his second season with the Browns — but maybe Stefanski’s offense doesn’t suit him. 

Maybe he’s not as good outdoors in Cleveland as he was indoors in Houston. Maybe WRs Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore don’t boost his upside the way WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller did. Maybe his new status as a social pariah impacts his mindset and ability to prepare for games. 

And maybe his time away from action significantly set back his development right as he should be entering his prime. I think Watson is still a top-12 quarterback. He could be in the top six. But I’m not ignoring what we saw last year.

Joshua Dobbs is a 28-year-old backup journeyman with two main virtues: 

1. He’s smart. He graduated from Tennessee with a degree in aerospace engineering and 4.0 grade point average. He’s an asset in the QBs room. 
2. He’s bad. He has only two starts and a 4.2 AY/A for his career. No matter how poorly Watson plays, fans won’t clamor for Dobbs to replace him and the organization won’t be tempted to do so. 

Dobbs is a “burn the ships” replacement to Jacoby Brissett as backup. 

Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a developmental fifth-round rookie who was the No. 2 dual-threat QB in the 2018 recruitment class.

Projections as of July 4.

Running Backs

• Starter: Nick Chubb
• Backups: Jerome Ford, Demetric Felton
• Borderline: John Kelly
• Notable Turnover: Kareem Hunt (free agent), D’Ernest Johnson (Jaguars)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Nick Chubb is a 27-year-old butt kicker (that’s a technical term) with at least 5.0 yards per carry and 1,100 yards from scrimmage in each of his five NFL seasons. A high-volume workhorse and perhaps the league’s best pure runner, he’s the only reason this unit as a whole is in the top five — because what’s after him is untested.

Jerome Ford is a four-star 2022 fifth-rounder who started his college career at Alabama (think freshman-year Alvin Kamara) but transferred to Cincinnati, where he put up 1,539 yards and 20 touchdowns from scrimmage in his final season. 

Last year he played only 14 offensive snaps, but he has a good physical profile (5-foot-11 and 210 pounds, 4.46-second 40-yard dash) and is likely to replace Hunt as the No. 2 back. 

Demetric Felton is a four-star 2021 sixth-rounder who amassed 1,752 scrimmage yards and 14 all-purpose touchdowns as a Percy Harvin-esque weapon in his two final college seasons. He is undersized (5-foot-9 and 189 pounds) and has been playing as a backup slot WR since entering the league, but the Browns could shift him back to RB and use him as a change-of-pace receiving option, given the team’s glut of WRs and Johnson’s departure. 

John Kelly is a 26-year-old practice squander who has five carries in the past four years — but at least the team knows what position he plays. He could push for the No. 3 RB spot.

Projections as of July 4.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones
• WR Backups: Marquise Goodwin, Cedric Tillman, David Bell, Jakeem Grant
• TE Starter: David Njoku
• TE Backups: Harrison Bryant, Jordan Akins
• Borderline: WR Anthony Schwartz
• Notable Turnover: TE Pharaoh Brown (Colts)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Amari Cooper is a 29-year-old third-team veteran with four Pro Bowls and the ability to play all three WR spots. Cheaply acquired via trade last offseason, Cooper put up 78-1,160-9 receiving in his first season with the team. He’s still as good and underappreciated as ever.

Elijah Moore is an All-American 2021 second-rounder whose two-year tenure with the Jets was soured by QB Zach Wilson, so they traded him to the Browns in March. He has elite speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash) but will play most in the slot because of his size (5-foot-10 and 178 pounds).

Donovan Peoples-Jones is a 24-year-old contract-year perimeter field stretcher who has elite recruitment pedigree (five stars) and near-elite athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 212 pounds) but entered the league as a sixth-rounder because of situation-dependent subpar production at Michigan. 

With a career-high 839 yards receiving last year and 10.0 yards per target for his career, Peoples-Jones is a legit NFL starter with a defined role in the offense.

Marquise Goodwin is a 32-year-old Olympics-qualifying track-and-field speedster (4.27-second 40-yard dash) who has had more than 500 yards receiving just once in his career. He has the outside/inside versatility to line up across the formation, but he’s more of a sprinter than a receiver. 

Cedric Tillman is a third-round rookie who dominated as an SEC redshirt junior (64-1,081-12 receiving) but missed half his senior year to injury. With his physical play and athletic profile (6-foot-3 and 213 pounds, 4.54-second 40-yard dash), he has the potential to develop into an alpha X.

David Bell is an All-American 2022 third-rounder who dominated all throughout college but did little last year (214 yards) despite playing as the No. 3 WR (514 snaps). His mayonnaise-like athleticism (4.65-second 40-yard dash, 7.14-second three-cone) is likely to limit him to the slot, and the offseason addition of Moore and Goodwin — both of whom profile as slot men — should push him down the depth chart and maybe off the roster entirely. 

Jakeem Grant is undeniably small (5-foot-6 and 165 pounds), but his speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) gives him the ability to play all three WR spots. He missed all of last year with an Achilles injury, but his return ability makes it likely that he’ll stick on the roster. 

As a receiver, he has been serviceable with 7.1 yards per target since his 2016 rookie season. 

Anthony Schwartz is a 2021 third-rounder who could push Bell and maybe Grant for a roster spot. He has just 186 yards and 5.6 yards per target over the past two years, but he also has elite speed (4.26-second 40-yard dash). 

David Njoku is a home-grown second-contract veteran who has averaged 8.1 yards per target in his three seasons in Stefanski’s offense. 

Capable of playing inline and passable in run blocking, Njoku is a true three-down contributor. 

Harrison Bryant is a Mackey Award-winning All-American 2020 fourth-rounder who has never had even 250 yards in a season but always played at least 400 snaps. He’s an acceptable (if unforgettable) No. 2 TE. 

Jordan Akins is a 31-year-old offseason addition coming off a career-best 37-495-5 receiving season with the Texans. He has some playmaking ability (8.1 yards per target for his career) and could push Bryant for playing time.

Projections as of July 4.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Jedrick Wills, LG Joel Bitonio, C Ethan Pocic, RG Wyatt Teller, RT Jack Conklin
• Backups: OT James Hudson, G/T Michael Dunn, OT Dawand Jones, C Luke Wypler 
• Borderline: C Nick Harris, OGs Colby Gossett, Wes Martin and Drew Forbes
• Notable Turnover: C Hjalte Froholdt (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Wills is a 2020 first-rounder who has started at LT every game of his NFL career and is yet to have a PFF pass-blocking grade lower than 65. The team has picked up his fifth-year option. Bitonio is a 31-year-old third-contract boss who has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past five years and first-team All-Pro in consecutive seasons. Dominant in both phases, he has played the entirety of his potential Hall-of-Fame career with the Browns. 

Pocic joined the team in 2022 via a three-year $18M contract after five seasons with the Seahawks. While he began his career as a guard, he has started at the pivot for the past three years and just had his best campaign with PFF run- and pass-blocking grades above 70. Teller was traded by the Bills to the Browns as a cheap second-year backup in 2019, but he has made 52 starts for the team since then and been a Pro Bowler in each of the past two seasons. He’s an especially strong run blocker. 

Conklin is a two-time first-team All-Pro who re-upped with the team this offseason for another four years after joining the team in 2020 as a Titans free agent. He has allowed only six sacks in his three seasons with the Browns. This might be the best starting five in the league.

Hudson is a 2021 fourth-rounder who has played 599 snaps and made seven starts in two years. With 28 pressures allowed on 326 pass rushes, he’s a suboptimal swing tackle. 

Dunn is a 2017 undrafted free agent who played in the AAF and XFL before catching on with the Browns in 2020. A backup LG with three starts in his first two seasons, he transitioned to a regular role (80 snaps) last year as an extra OL (inline TE) in heavy formations thanks to his run-blocking ability. 

Jones and Wypler are Day 3 Ohio State rookies who have multiple seasons of starting experience and could develop into long-term contributors. Jones has elite size (6-foot-8 and 374 pounds) and four-star recruitment pedigree. 

Wypler has good athleticism (5.14-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 303 pounds) and is a natural fit for Stefanksi’s zone scheme. Of the two, Wypler is more vulnerable, especially to Harris (2020 fifth-rounder), who missed all of last year to injury but demonstrated G/C versatility in his first two seasons.

If the Browns decide to keep a 10th lineman, that spot would likely come down to Gossett, Martin and Forbes. Gossett and Martin are cheap veterans off one-year deals with other teams. Both have ample (but unimpressive) experience at both guard spots. Forbes is a 2019 sixth-rounder whom the Browns drafted but didn’t play on offense until last year — when he saw 19 snaps.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Myles Garrett, Za'Darius Smith
• EDGE Backups: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Alex Wright, Isaiah Thomas, Isaiah McGuire
• DT Starters: Dalvin Tomlinson, Jordan Elliott
• DT Backups: Perrion Winfrey, Siaki Ika
• Borderline: DTs Tommy Togiai, Trysten Hill and Maurice Hurst
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Jadeveon Clowney (free agent), Chase Winovich (Texans) and Isaac Rochell (free agent), DT Taven Bryan (Colts)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Garrett is the No. 1 pick of the 2017 draft and a two-time first-team All-Pro with 16 sacks in back-to-back seasons. He is the defense. Smith is a late-blooming three-time Pro Bowler who rotated in for the Ravens early in his career but has racked up double-digit sacks in each of his past four healthy seasons (he missed most of 2021 with a back injury). 

In May, the Browns stole him from the Vikings, who had to let him go for almost nothing because of their salary cap situation. He’s a strong replacement for Clowney opposite Garrett.

Okoronkwo is a 28-year-old offseason acquisition who played on a limited basis for his first four years with the Rams, but last year with the Texans he hit career highs with 36 pressures and five sacks. A solid No. 3 EDGE, he has never had a PFF run-defense or pass-rush grade below 60. 

Wright is a 2022 third-rounder who played meaningful snaps (543) with terrible results (38.4 PFF grade) as a rookie. Thomas — a 2022 seventh-rounder — was only slightly better (51 PFF grade) but with far fewer snaps (162). Both could lose playing time to McGuire, a fourth-round rookie with good athleticism (4.76-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 268 pounds) and decent production (team-high 13.5 sacks in final two seasons).

Tomlinson played next to Smith on the Vikings DL last year, and they reunite this year with the Browns thanks to Tomlinson’s four-year $57M contract. Able to play the nose because of his size (6-foot-3 and 325 pounds), he has always been strong against the run, but he has also developed into a consistent pass rusher with 11 sacks over the past three years. He’s a big upgrade on Bryan.

Elliott is a 2020 third-rounder who last year had a career-best 703 snaps and a career-worst 40.4 PFF grade. If the guys behind him were more proven, he’d be at risk of losing significant playing time.

Winfrey is a 2022 fourth-rounder who got 22 tackles and 0.5 sacks on 342 snaps last year. Ika is a four-star third-round rookie who has great size (6-foot-3 and 335 pounds) but will likely be limited to running downs.

Because of the lack of known depth behind Tomlinson, the team might opt to keep a fifth DT, in which case Togiai, Hill and Hurst would all be options.

Togiai is a 2021 fourth-rounder who has 350 snaps for the Browns but back-to-back sub-40 PFF grades. 

Hill is a discarded 2019 second-rounder now on his third team in less than a year, but he did have his best statistical season in 2022 (12 tackles, nine pressures). 

Hurst is on a one-year deal with no guarantees, he has played just 41 snaps over the past two years (primarily because of injuries), and he fell in the fifth round of the 2018 draft due to a heart condition — but the 2017 All-American has never had a PFF grade lower than 70. He’s an intriguing upside option. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Anthony Walker
• Backups: Jacob Phillips, Sione Takitaki, Jordan Kunaszyk
• Borderline: Tony Fields, Matthew Adams
• Notable Turnover: Deion Jones (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Owusu-Koramoah is a Butkus Award-winning All-American 2021 second-rounder who is strong in coverage (73.4 PFF grade last year) but less sturdy in run defense because of his size (6-foot-2 and 221 pounds). He has missed nine games in two years but has Pro Bowl potential.

Walker signed his third straight one-year deal with the Browns this offseason after missing most of 2022 with a torn quad. He’s a below-average run defender with big PFF coverage grades (90.0, 78.2) in his two years with the Browns.

Phillips is a 24-year-old five-star 2020 third-rounder who has never lived up to his recruitment status or draft capital (he has missed 23 games over the past two seasons), but he’s young and entering a contract year.

Takitaki is a 2019 third-rounder who has provided the team with consistent league-average backup play for four years. Kunaszyk is a 2019 UDFA who led the Browns with nine special teams tackles last year. A true dirty-work ace, he just signed a one-year deal with $500,000 in guarantees, so he’s making the roster.

Fields is a 2021 fifth-round core special teams contributor who made six admirable but undesirable starts last year due to unit injuries. He should push for a roster spot — but I’m not sure who he’s pushing. 

Adams played well last year with the Bears (career-high 69.6 PFF grade), and he does special teams. Like Fields, he should compete to make the team.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Martin Emerson
• CB Backups: Cameron Mitchell, Mike Ford, A.J. Green
• S Starters: Juan Thornhill, Grant Delpit
• S Backups: Rodney McLeod, D'Anthony Bell
• Borderline: CB Thomas Graham
• Notable Turnover: CB Greedy Williams (Eagles), FS John Johnson (free agent), SS Ronnie Harrison (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Ward is a 2018 first-rounder who has two Pro Bowls and a five-year $100.5M contract but is coming off the worst season of his career (9.2 yards per target). He should bounce back toward his career average (6.6) and is one of the league’s best shadow defenders — but he’s yet to exhibit the truly elite shutdown functionality the team hoped for when it drafted him No. 4 overall.

Newsome is a 2021 first-rounder who plays perimeter in base formation and slot in nickel packages. Like Ward, Newsome has held pass catchers to 6.6 yards per target for his career. Emerson is a 2022 third-rounder with good size (6-foot-2 and 201 pounds) and press-man ability on the perimeter. He allowed only a 53.9% catch rate as a rookie and combines with Ward and Newsome to form a high-upside coverage trio.

Mitchell is a fifth-round rookie who played with Newsome at Northwestern and has a physical style that outweighs his size (5-foot-11 and 191 pounds). He had a team-high nine passes defended last year and has outside/inside versatility.

Ford is a 2018 UDFA now on his third team in three seasons. He played only 83 snaps for the Falcons last year and has never been reliable in coverage — but the Browns gave him nearly $925,000 in guarantees, and he can play all three corner spots, so he’ll probably make the roster.

Green is a 2020 UDFA who impressed in 2021 (3.2 yards per target, 27.3% completion rate) and disappointed in 2022 (9.8, 80%). He’s a core special teamer but will need to hold off Graham, a 2021 sixth-rounder who has been consistently better in coverage (5.4 yards per target) over the past two years.

Thornhill joined the Browns this offseason as the FS replacement to Johnson after four years with the Chiefs. An average run defender and skillful cover man, he upgrades the secondary.

Delpit is a Thorpe Award-winning two-time All-American 2020 second-rounder who missed his rookie year to injury but has been solid since over the past two years. He has the size (6-foot-3 and 213 pounds) to bang in the box and the athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash) to stick in coverage.

McCleod is a 33-year-old veteran now on his third team in three years. With 138 NFL starts, sustained coverage skills and the proven ability to play both safety spots, he’s an ideal No. 3 S replacement to Harrison. 

Bell is a 2022 UDFA who was terrible last year in coverage and against the run but good on special teams.

Specialists

• Kicker: Cade York
• Punter: Corey Bojorquez
• Holder: Corey Bojorquez
• Long Snapper: Charley Hughlett
• Kick Returner: Jakeem Grant
• Punt Returner: Jakeem Grant
• Borderline: P Joseph Charlton

York is a 2022 fourth-rounder who converted 75% of his field goal attempts as a rookie and reminded the world that it almost never makes sense to spend draft capital on a kicker. But at least he has length and was 4-of-7 kicking on attempts of 50-plus yards. Bojorquez is in the second season of a two-year deal and will face competition from Charlton.

Bojorquez was No. 7 last year with 48.5 yards per punt, and he led the league in 2020 with 50.8, while Charlton’s career average is 44.3. Bojorquez should be able to keep his spot.

Hughlett is a 33-year-old veteran who bounced around with the Cowboys, Patriots, Jaguars and Chiefs for three years before he played in his first NFL game with the Browns in 2015. He has been with them ever since. In 2017, they made him the league’s highest-paid LS (at the time) and gave him a four-year extension in 2022. I guess he’s good.

Grant was a second-team All-Pro returner in back-to-back seasons before missing 2022. He has six return touchdowns (4 punt, 2 kick) in six years and strong career marks with 10.3 yards per punt return and 24.5 yards per kick return, both of which would’ve been good for No. 6 in 2022.

Browns schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Browns’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 14
• Home Division: AFC North
• Opposing Division: AFC South, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 6-13
• Opponents: vs. SF, at IND, at SEA, vs. ARI, at BAL, vs. PIT, at DEN, at LAR

The Browns have a middle-of-the-road schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, but they have a circumstantially tough eight-game stretch coming out of the bye.

First of all, the Week 5 bye is probably a disadvantage. It’s too early in the year to be of significant ameliorative and self-evaluative benefit. After just a month, not enough games have been accumulated for players to need a break to get healthy or for the team to know that it needs to make major changes in scheme or personnel. So the early bye is of diminished value.

And after the bye the Browns are home underdogs against the 49ers — and then they play five-of-seven away. They’re the only theoretically legitimate title contender with such a stretch of games this year, and I don’t care who you are: If you play that many games on the road in that condensed of a period, you’re liable to lose some games you probably shouldn’t.

After hosting the 49ers in Week 6, the Browns have back-to-back road games against the Colts and Seahawks. The Colts could be unexpectedly tough with rookie QB Anthony Richardson, and the Seahawks are a playoff team with an elite home-field advantage.

For Week 9, the Browns head home as heavy favorites to host the Cardinals — but this is a classic “trap game,” given that QB Kyler Murray (knee) might be back in time to play, and the Browns could be looking ahead to their upcoming back-to-back divisional rematches on the road against the Ravens (Week 10) and at home against the Steelers (Week 11).

They could easily lose either (or both) of those games. After that, the Browns have another pair of road games: at Broncos and at Rams. Neither of those teams look tough now, but they both have championship-winning HCs and QBs, and the Browns could be worn out after consecutive games with physical divisional opponents.

The Browns won’t go 0-8 in this stretch — but all eight of these games are losable, and if they do any worse than 3-5 out of the bye they could be in trouble given that they have three divisional games in the first month of the season and back-to-back matchups with the Jets and Bengals at the end of the year. They need to hold serve in Weeks 6-13 to give themselves a good shot to make the playoffs.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Browns.

• Watson is placed on the commissioner’s exempt list shortly before the season starts after new allegations arise, which leads Berry to bring in replacement starting QB Teddy Bridgewater, who had Stefanski as his QBs coach on the 2017 Vikings — and his 2023 campaign goes poorly, given how little time he has to master the system.
• Chubb gets career highs in touches and yards, but it’s a punishing campaign for him as defenses sell out to stop the run, which causes him to drop below 5.0 yards per carry.
• Cooper (unsuccessfully) requests a trade after Week 2, and Njoku openly yells at Stefanski as the team walks off the field to the sound of hometown boos after a Week 4 loss to the Ravens.
• The offensive line calls a players-only meeting ahead of the team’s Week 10 road rematch with the Ravens, after which reports leak of a highly fractured locker room.
• Garrett has a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber campaign that goes overlooked because of the team’s overall woes.
• Elliott, Owusu-Koramoah and Walker continue to struggle against the run, which prevents the defense from getting stops.
• Ward repeats last year’s substandard performance and leaves the field early in Week 17 out of frustration before refusing to travel with the team to Cincinnati for Week 18.
• York once again converts less than 80% of his field goal attempts.
• Browns limp to a 5-12 record, Texans get the No. 5 overall pick because they own the Browns’ 2024 first-rounder, Watson gets cut by the Browns, who sue him for breach of contract in an attempt to keep the remainder of his guaranteed money, and the team signs QB Carson Wentz to be the presumptive 2024 starter. 

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Browns.

• Watson has the most efficient season of his career but doesn’t get an MVP vote because of his off-field scandal and the team’s low-volume pass attack.
• Chubb wins Offensive Player of the Year as he becomes the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.
• Cooper hits the 1,000-yard mark for the seventh time in his career, and Njoku makes his first Pro Bowl thanks in part to a highlight play in which he takes out two defenders on one downfield block to spring Chubb for a 57-yard touchdown.
• The offensive line boasts three first-team All-Pros, and the five starters all get matching tattoos.
• Garrett wins Defensive Player of the Year with a 20-sack season.
• Elliott, Owusu-Koramoah and Walker all get just a little bit better against the run, which is good enough.
• Ward bounces back to his pre-2022 form and makes his third Pro Bowl.
• York develops into a league-average kicker in his second season.
• Browns go 13-4, get the No. 2 seed, run past the Chargers on Super Wild Card Weekend, squeak by the Bills in overtime of the Divisional Round and hold the Bengals to 20 points in the home-field AFC Championship to advance to the Super Bowl, where Stefanski uses his Shanahan-style scheme to beat the 49ers and Chubb wins Super Bowl MVP while Watson is entirely ignored by the camera and the telecast during the team’s celebration and acceptance of the Lombardi Trophy.

In-season angles

I view the Browns as a neutral betting team, but I skew slightly negative and would entertain the idea of betting against them when they’re favored, at home or in division.

• Stefanski as Favorite: 10-18 ATS (23.3% ROI for faders)
• Stefanski at Home: 10-15 ATS (15.1% ROI for faders)
• Stefanski in Division: 6-13 (30.0% ROI for faders)

Right now, I don’t see a situational scenario in which I’d actively look to back them.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs, also includes two games Stefanski missed to COVID. Those games were technically coached by special teams coordinator Mike Priefer, but they were still Stefanski’s teams.

Offseason market to exploit

In the playoffs market, we have a synthetic no-hold opportunity between PointsBet and BetMGM.

• To Make Playoffs: +120, DraftKings
• To Miss Playoffs: -120, BetMGM

Given that we have a market in which we can bet with no effective juice — a market in which the sportsbooks don’t have an edge — we have the incentive to take a side if we like it, knowing that we’re getting in good even if we ultimately lose.

At the same, there’s another bet I like for the Browns, so I’m taking a barbell approach to their futures market.

Browns to Miss Playoffs (-120, BetMGM), Browns to Win Super Bowl (+4000, DraftKings)

I have the Browns projected for 8.7 wins. (Their total is 9.5 in the market.) Last year, 8.8 wins would’ve made them the No. 9 team in the AFC. The year before that, the No. 11 team. I currently have nine AFC teams projected with more than 8.7 wins for this season. The AFC is a beast, and the Browns will almost certainly need at least nine wins to make the postseason.

So I like the value on them to miss the playoffs at -120 at BetMGM in this no-hold market. I think it’s likelier than not that they don’t advance past the regular season.

You can tail the value on BetMGM and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. All you have to do is sign up for a new BetMGM account below and start betting today!

That said… I see their upside case and think that they’re also undervalued to win the Super Bowl at +4000 at DraftKings. There are very few teams with a real chance to have a top-five QB and a top-five defense. The Browns are one of them. And Stefanski, for his flaws as a play sequencer, is a strong play designer. Maybe he gets better at playcalling this season.

It might seem odd that I think the Browns are undervalued both to miss the playoffs and to win the Super Bowl. And there’s a chance that I could lose both bets. But I expect the Browns to have a wide range of outcomes entering the year. There’s a lot of volatility with their projection because we simply don’t know who they are.

If the Browns underperform their 9.5 win total, which I think is likely, then I expect them to miss the playoffs. But if they overperform my projection of 8.8 wins — and they do it in an incredibly tough conference — then that could be the sign that they’re a legitimate contender, and if that’s the case then I want exposure to the long tail of their potential dominance.

So I’m betting them both to miss the playoffs and to win the Super Bowl. Up is down. Day is night. Good is bad. Black is Browns.

You can tail the Super Bowl longshot on DraftKings and also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account! Learn more below and start betting today.