2023 Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview

Last year, the Cowboys went 12-5 for the second year in a row, won their first playoff game under HC Mike McCarthy and held the 49ers to just one touchdown in their 19-12 Divisional Round loss. But the Cowboys didn’t win the NFC East despite having top-five marks in both offensive and defensive scoring, and owner Jerry Jones lacks the patience to be satisfied with occasional postseason victories. 

The Cowboys have a Super Bowl-caliber roster and top-six Super Bowl odds. This year, anything less than an NFC Championship appearance will put McCarthy’s job in jeopardy.

In this 2023 Cowboys preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Cowboys preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Dallas Cowboys 2023 offseason odds

Odds as of June 18. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 18. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 Dallas Cowboys team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 18.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 18.

Dallas Cowboys general manager and head coach

• Owner/General Manager: Jerry Jones
• Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
• Team Power Rating: +3.75
• Team Power Ranking: No. 6
• Coach Ranking: No. 19

Jones is great as an owner in that he bought the Cowboys in 1989 for a mere $150 million and now the Cowboys are the most valuable franchise in the NFL at $8 billion. But he’s terrible as an owner in that he made himself GM of the team. 

As a GM, Jones has had success with his iconoclastic thinking and aggressiveness. After buying the team, he immediately fired legendary HC Tom Landry — the only coach in franchise history — and replaced him with former college teammate and roommate Jimmy Johnson, who had recently won a national championship with the 1987 Hurricanes. He added two first-round rookie quarterbacks to the roster in his first offseason (Troy Aikman at No. 1 overall, Steve Walsh via the supplemental draft) and let them battle for the starting job. He traded away Pro Bowl RB Herschel Walker in exchange for the draft capital that enabled the 1992-93 and 1995 Cowboys to win the Super Bowl.

But Jones has also been objectively terrible as a GM. He fired Johnson after the second Super Bowl out of resentment — and since then has had seven more coaches. In the 22 years since Aikman retired, the Cowboys have had just eight winning seasons, won only four playoff games and appeared in zero NFC Championships. He has made his three children (Stephen, Charlotte, and Jerry Jr.) the team’s highest-ranking executives below only him — and what are the odds that they’re actually the most qualified people for those jobs? Unless their primary task is to deal with their dad, which begs the question: Should managing the ego of the guy at the top of the organization be what NFL executives focus on most?

Jones has proven himself more than capable of putting together a talent-laden collection of players. He has also proven himself incapable of hiring the right people to lead the team to a 21st-century championship, including himself.

This probably includes McCarthy, who was hired as the Cowboys HC in 2020 basically because he was (in my opinion) the most servile and desperate available coach with a Super Bowl win on his record. Let’s look at that. McCarthy oversaw the Packers for 13 years as the coach and architect of their offense. He had QBs Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers — two top-12 QBs in NFL history. With these Hall-of-Famers, his offense led the league in scoring just twice, and his team went to the Super Bowl just once. Given the players he had, McCarthy’s Super Bowl isn’t a badge of honor. It’s a scarlet letter — the sign that McCarthy has struggled to maximize his team’s talent.

That could be a problem this year, as McCarthy plans to take over playcalling for scapegoated former OC Kellen Moore, whose offenses were top-six in scoring in his three full seasons with QB Dak Prescott (No. 1 in both yards and scoring in 2021). It’s doubtful that McCarthy will be able to replicate Moore’s success — and he might struggle balancing his duties as coach and playcaller. Despite winning 12 games in consecutive seasons, McCarthy has a hot seat that will likely be cooled only if the Cowboys get the No. 1 seed with 13-plus wins or make the NFC Championship. Otherwise, McCarthy could once again be spending the offseason at the offices of PFF.

Mike McCarthy coaching record

• Years: 16 (3 with Cowboys)
• Playoffs: 11 (2)
• Division Titles: 7 (1)
• Super Bowls: 1 (0)
• Championships: 1 (0)
• Win Total Record: 8-8 (2-1)
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.06 (+0.33)
• Regular Season: 155-97-2 (.614) [30-20 (.600)]
• Playoff Record: 11-10 (.524) [1-2 (.333)]
• Against the Spread: 152-116-7 (11.0% ROI) [29-24 (5.5% ROI)]
• Moneyline: 166-107-2 (1.3% ROI) [31-22 (3.4% ROI)]
• Over/Under: 150-121-4 (8.0% ROI, Over) [27-26 (-0.9% ROI, Over)]

Cowboys stats in parentheses and brackets. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Cowboys team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 Cowboys offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 Cowboys defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Dallas Cowboys offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Brian Schottenheimer
• Offensive Playcaller: Mike McCarthy
• OL Coach: Mike Solari
• QBs Coach: Scott Tolzien
• Run Game Coordinator/RBs Coach: Jeff Blasko
• WRs Coach: Robert Prince
• TEs Coach: Lunda Wells
• Notable Turnover: OC Kellen Moore (Chargers), OL Coach Joe Philbin (Ohio State), QBs Coach Doug Nussmeier (Chargers), RBs Coach Skip Peete (Buccaneers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Schottenheimer has a name but not much else. Son of a respected and longtime NFL HC (Marty), Schottenheimer since 2001 has been either a coordinator or QBs coach for every single season but one — last year, when he joined the Cowboys as a “consultant” (aka “future in-house replacement for Moore”). 

Despite his long tenure in the league, Schottenheimer has rarely coordinated an offense of note, and his schemes have been plagued by conservatism: In 2018-20, Schottenheimer was the Seahawks OC who wouldn’t let QB Russell Wilson cook. And that’s what McCarthy wants — an offense that turns the heat down and intentionally tries not to score as many points as possible so that it can instead control the ball. And to ensure the offense simmers slowly, McCarthy himself will call plays on gameday while Schottenheimer handles the administrative tasks of installing the offense during the week.

Solari has been an OL coach since 1976 with the exception of three seasons: 2006-07, when he disastrously coordinated the Chiefs offense (No. 31 in 2007), and last year — when he was unemployed. His 1997-2005 OLs with the Chiefs tended to be strong, and Solari is esteemed by his peers, but it’s possible that the game has passed him by. He worked with Schottenheimer on the 2018-20 Seahawks and will replace Philbin, who was McCarthy’s most-trusted assistant. 

Tolzien played for McCarthy on the 2013-15 Packers as the backup QB and worked for him as an assistant for the past three years. He’s a natural if uninspiring successor to Nussmeier, who followed Moore to the Chargers as QBs coach. Blasko worked with McCarthy in 2016-18 and joined the Cowboys in 2020 as the OLs assistant. He knows more about the running game in general than about RBs — hence the additional title of run game coordinator — but he’s someone McCarthy has familiarity with as an in-house replacement to Peete.

Prince joined the Cowboys last year, but I’m not sure why he was retained. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys WRs disappointed in 2022, and Prince is Moore’s guy, not McCarthy’s. (Prince was the WRs coach for Moore’s 2011 Boise State team.) Wells joined the Cowboys in 2020 in his current role and has done a good job providing the team with excellent TE production for the past three years.

2023 Cowboys offensive unit rankings

2023 Cowboys defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Dan Quinn
• DL Coach: Aden Durde
• LBs Coach: Scott McCurley
• Secondary Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Joe Whitt
• DBs Coach: Al Harris
• Notable Turnover: Sr. Defensive Assistant George Edwards (Buccaneers) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Quinn is a killer coordinator, mediocre coach. As the 2013-14 Seahawks DC, he oversaw a Legion of Boom unit that led the team to one Super Bowl win (and nearly a second). And as the Cowboys DC for the past two years, he has guided the defense to two top-eight scoring campaigns. 

As the 2015-20 Falcons HC, he took his team to Super Bowl 51, and his defense held the Patriots scoreless until the very end of the first half — but it also coughed up a 28-3 lead to lose the game and finished as a bottom-10 scoring unit in three of six seasons. Luckily for the Cowboys, Quinn is their coordinator and not their coach — and all of his top staffers from last year are back except for Edwards, but Quinn probably doesn’t need a senior assistant anyway.

Durde is an Englishman who flirted with the NFL in the 2000s via the International Player Pathway before returning home and serving as the head of football development at NFLUK. In 2018 he joined Quinn’s Falcons and worked his way up to outside LBs coach before moving with Quinn to the Cowboys in 2021 in his current role. Under his guidance, the Cowboys defensive line — especially the EDGE position — has thrived. McCurley worked with McCarthy on the 2007-18 Packers, grinding his way up from intern to defensive assistant. When McCarthy got the Cowboys job in 2020, he rewarded McCurley’s longtime loyalty with the Cousin Greg-like role of LBs coach.

Whitt worked for McCarthy on the 2008-18 Packers, primarily as CBs coach — and then he worked for Quinn on the 2020 Falcons as the secondary coach and pass game coordinator. He joined Quinn on the Cowboys in 2021 and is an ideal bridge between Quinn and McCarthy. Harris played corner for McCarthy and Whitt in Green Bay, where he started for the 2003-09 Packers and was voted to two Pro Bowls. After playing, Harris worked as an intern for the 2012 Dolphins and assistant for the 2013-18 Chiefs before joining the Cowboys in 2020 in his current role.

2023 Cowboys defensive unit rankings

2023 Special Teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: John Fassel
• Assistant Special Teams Coordinator: Rayna Stewart

Fassel might be the best special teams coordinator in the league. He has been coaching special teams in the NFL since 2005 and been a coordinator since 2008. He’s especially inventive with fake punts, and his Cowboys unit has been top-10 in DVOA every season since he joined the team in 2020. Stewart was a quality control coach and then assistant on the post-McCarthy Packers for three years before enlisting with the Cowboys last year.

Projected Cowboys 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Dak Prescott
• Backups: Cooper Rush, Will Grier
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Prescott is probably not the player he was prior to his ankle injury. In 2019-20, he averaged 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt and 5.3 yards per carry. In 2021-22, those marks were 7.5 and 3.5. He doesn’t look like the guy he was before. But he’s still a good quarterback: Last year he was No. 8 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected (per RBs Don’t Matter). 

Rush entered the league in 2017 as an undrafted free agent and has been the team’s backup for most of the time since then. He has been supremely average over the past two years (59.3%, 7.0 AY/A), but the team is 5-1 in his starts, so it seems the team knows how to use him effectively. Grier is a 2019 third-rounder who hasn’t attempted a pass since his rookie season. 

Projections as of June 12.

Running Backs

• Starter: Tony Pollard
• Backups: Malik Davis, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn
• Fullback: Hunter Luepke
• Borderline: Ronald Jones
• Notable Turnover: Ezekiel Elliott (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Pollard is a 26-year-old franchise-tag career backup who will finally get the chance to play as the lead back… unless the Cowboys bring back Elliott or sign an available workhorse like Leonard Fournette. Despite putting up 2,434 yards from scrimmage over the past two years, Pollard has always been viewed by the organization as more of a No. 2 back, and it doesn’t help that he’s still recovering from a leg injury he suffered in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Pollard has the explosiveness to be a star, but we don’t know yet if he has the durability. 

Dec 24, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) and Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Davis is a 2022 undrafted player who flashed last year as the No. 3 back (80.6 PFF grade). I think he could push the veteran Jones off the roster, given that Jones did nothing last year (92 yards), doesn’t contribute on special teams and got only $302,500 in total guarantees. 

Dowdle is an undrafted veteran who missed most of last year and has only seven career carries but special teams functionality. Vaughn is a sixth-round rookie with childlike size (5-foor-5 and 179 pounds) but a godlike will to dominate (4,884 yards, 43 touchdowns from scrimmage in three years at Kansas State). His father (Chris) is a Cowboys scout. 

If the Cowboys decide that they need a veteran presence in the RB room — like Jones (back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2019-20) — then either Dowdle or Vaughn could get cut. And I can also envision a scenario in which Jones is released but then re-signed by the team. 

Luepke is an athletic undrafted rookie who played as an old-school FB at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, putting up 274-1,665-24 rushing and 38-494-9 receiving in four college seasons. The Cowboys haven’t had a traditional FB since 2019, but with McCarthy taking over the offense and shifting to more of a controlled attack, he might want to find his next John Kuhn.

Projections as of June 12.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup
• WR Backups: Jalen Tolbert, Kavontae Turpin, Simi Fehoko 
• TE Starter: Jake Ferguson
• TE Backups: Luke Schoonmaker, Peyton Hendershot
• Borderline: WR Jalen Brooks, TE Sean McKeon
• Notable Turnover: WRs Noah Brown (Texans), TY Hilton (free agent), TE Dalton Schultz (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Lamb is a potential superstar with inside/outside versatility and a playmaking skill set (evidenced by his 8.8 yards per target and 29-205-1 rushing for his career). Last year he hit career highs with 156 targets, 107 receptions, 1,359 yards receiving and nine touchdowns, and he has 1,000 yards from scrimmage in each of his three NFL seasons. He will likely be the team’s primary slot receiver for the second year in a row.  

Cooks is a 2014 first-rounder who has had 1,000 yards receiving in all six seasons in which he has played 15-plus games. Acquired via trade this offseason, Cooks has had success everywhere he has been (Saints, Patriots, Rams, Texans) and doesn’t turn 30 years old until the season starts. He should be an upgrade as the No. 2 WR on Gallup, who himself will shift into the No. 3 WR spot vacated by Brown. 

Returning from a 2021 season-ending knee injury, Gallup looked like a shadow of himself in 2022 with a career-low 5.7 yards per target. Gone are the days of 2019 when Gallup had 1,107 yards receiving, but he should at least improve in 2023 with more distance between himself and his ACL tear.

Tolbert is a 2022 second-rounder who did so little as a rookie (12 yards on three targets) that the team needed to sign the 33-year-old Hilton as depth. Turpin is a small (5-foot-9 and 158 pounds) but fast (4.31-second 40-yard dash) and shifty (6.65-second three-cone) gadget player and return man who went undrafted 2019 and then made his way to the NFL via the European League of Football and the USFL, where he was named league MVP in 2022 before joining the Cowboys. Fehoko is a big and fast 2021 fifth-rounder who plays mainly on special teams.

Ferguson is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played well as a rookie in limited action: Among all TEs with 20-plus targets, he was No. 6 with 1.79 yards per route, immediately behind George Kittle (1.80), tied with Dallas Goedert (1.79) and right ahead of T.J. Hockenson (1.73). He’ll compete for the No. 1 TE job with second-round rookie Schoonmaker, who has good athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 251 pounds) but will turn 25 years old as a rookie and never had even 500 yards receiving in a season. 

Hendershot is a second-year depth player who will have a shot to compete with Ferguson and Schoonmaker for the starting gig, but more realistically he will be competing for a roster spot with the veteran McKeon, who has played regularly on special teams for the past three seasons.

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Tyron Smith, LG Tyler Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Zack Martin, RT Terence Steele
• Backups: OT Matt Waletzko, T/G Chuma Edoga, G/C Matt Farniok, OT Josh Ball
• Borderline: OL Asim Richards
• Notable Turnover: LG Connor McGovern (Bills), T/G Jason Peters (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Tyron Smith is a two-time first-team All-Pro who has been voted to the Pro Bowl every season of the past decade when playing 10-plus games — but he has missed 33 games since 2020 and hasn’t played more than 13 games in the regular season since 2016. He turns 33 years old this season and had a career-worst 60.9 PFF grade last year while shifting to right tackle. Back on the blind side, Smith should bounce back some, but he might no longer be the dominant tackle we remember.

Tyler Smith is a 2022 first-rounder who played LT as a rookie but is expected to shift to LG. He was especially strong as a run-blocker last season and will be an upgrade on the departed McGovern. Biadasz is a fourth-year Day 3 veteran who has been the team’s Week 1 starter at the pivot since 2021. Last year he had a Pro Bowl season and has allowed just three sacks across his career. 

Martin has been a first-team All-Pro six times since entering the league in 2014, including the past two seasons. The future Hall-of-Famer is still one of the league’s best interior linemen. Steele has given the Cowboys 40 starts of above-average tackle play since entering the league in 2020 as an undrafted free agent — but he suffered season-ending ACL and MCL tears in Week 14 and is uncertain for Week 1.

Waletzko is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played just one snap last year but is getting some buzz as a potential RT fill-in for Steele. A developmental prospect from FCS North Dakota, he has elite size (6-foot-8 and 312 pounds) and near-elite athleticism (5.03-second 40-yard dash) and started 28 games at LT. 

Edoga is an inexpensive veteran with a one-year contract, positional flexibility and 13 career starts. While he underwhelmed in his first three seasons as a tackle, he played well last year for the Falcons in limited action at LG (77.8 PFF grade) and has always been an above-average run blocker. Farniok is a 2021 seventh-rounder who played sparingly but well as a rookie and then a little bit more and a lot worse last season. He can sub in at all three interior positions, but how well he can do so is unknown at best. 

Ball is a 2021 fourth-rounder who played no snaps as a rookie but 40 RT snaps in 2021. He was great as a run-blocker (86.2 PFF grade) but horrid as a pass-blocker (29.1). He could face competition from Richards, a rookie fifth-rounder who started at LT in college for three seasons but might need to kick inside in the NFL.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence
• EDGE Backups: Dorance Armstrong, Sam Williams, Dante Fowler
• DT Starters: Osa Odighizuwa, Mazi Smith
• DT Backups: Neville Gallimore, Johnathan Hankins, Quinton Bohanna
• Borderline: EDGE Viliami Fehoko, DT Chauncey Golston
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Tarell Basham (Bengals), DT Carlos Watkins (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Parsons might be the closest thing we’ve seen to Lawrence Taylor since LT himself. A 2021 first-rounder, Parsons entered the league as a versatile and athletic off-ball linebacker and quickly proved himself to be a dominant pass rusher. After a first-team All-Pro Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign, he shifted primarily to edge in 2022 and had another first-team All-Pro season. With 26.5 sacks through two years, Parsons is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. 

Lawrence is a post-peak 31-year-old veteran who had back-to-back double-digit campaigns as a sack savant in 2017-18, but he has tailed off since then. He’s still an above-average No. 2 edge who’s strong defending the run and rushing the passer, but he no longer has the façade of eliteness.

Armstrong is a second-contract rotational rusher who racked up a career-high 8.5 sacks in 2022 and has steadily improved in his five years with the team. Williams is a 2022 second-rounder who flashed strong SEC production in college (12.5 sacks in final season at Mississippi) and elite athleticism at the combine (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 261 pounds). 

Fowler is a former No. 3 pick who struggled with inconsistency and the burden of great expectations early in his career, but he had 11.5 sacks with the 2019 Rams and then played under Quinn on the 2020 Falcons. He had a respectable six sacks in his first season with the Cowboys last year and is almost certainly the league’s best No. 5 edge defender. Fehoko is a fourth-round rookie edge with a tweener’s body. He’ll need to stand out in camp to make the roster as Basham’s back-of-the-rotation replacement.

Odighizuwa is a 2021 third-rounder who has led the DT group in snaps in each of the past two seasons. He had five sacks last year (including playoffs) but is an average-at-best run defender, which helps explain why the Cowboys drafted Smith, an athletic four-star first-rounder with the necessary size (6-foot-3 and 323 pounds) to line up at nose, occupy double teams and stuff the run (87 tackles in 28 starts for Michigan). The Cowboys expect him to be an upgrade on the departed Watkins.

Gallimore is a 2020 third-rounder who had backup-turned-starter odysseys in each of his first two seasons but last year was restrained to his rotational role. A poor run defender and below-average pass rusher, he’s a big body at risk of losing his roster spot, as is Hankins, whom the team acquired last year via a midseason trade. While he had near-elite zero-technique space-eating ability when he entered the league in 2013, Hankins has steadily declined for the past half decade. 

Bohanna is yet another vulnerable player. He offers gap versatility, but the 2021 sixth-rounder has never had a PFF grade higher than 41.1. Golston is a third-year tweener who can get after the QB (34 pressures in 405 pass rushes), but his lack of size makes him a liability against the run.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Leighton Vander Esch, Damone Clark
• Backups: DeMarvion Overshown, Jabril Cox
• Borderline: Malik Jefferson
• Notable Turnover: Anthony Barr (free agent), Luke Gifford (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Vander Esch has not been the promised prince. After balling out with a 140-tackle Pro Bowl campaign as a first-round rookie, he has missed 16 games and regressed in the four subsequent seasons — but he did have a bounceback performance in 2022 (73.1 PFF grade) and is still above average in coverage and adequate against the run. 

Clark is an athletic 2022 fifth-rounder who played as the No. 3 LB last year and will endeavor to replace Barr as a starter this year. Overshown is a five-star third-round rookie who transitioned from safety to linebacker and amassed 230 tackles in three years at the position. He lacks the typical LB build (6-foot-3 and 229 pounds), but Overshown has an improving nose for the ball and DB-quality coverage skills. He could push Clark for a starting spot. 

Cox is a 2021 fourth-rounder who plays primarily on special teams. He could face a challenge from Jefferson, who was on the practice squad last year and has been a strong special teams contributor throughout his five-year career.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Trevon Diggs, Stephon Gilmore, Jourdan Lewis
• CB Backups: DaRon Bland, Nahshon Wright, Kelvin Joseph
• S Starters: Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse
• S Backups: Malik Hooker, Israel Mukuamu
• Borderline: CB Eric Scott, S Markquese Bell
• Notable Turnover: CB Anthony Brown (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Diggs is a 2020 second-rounder who earned first-team All-Pro accolades in 2021 and has a swashbuckling 17 career interceptions but is prone to big plays (9.25 yards per target) and has allowed 16 touchdowns. He’s an improving above-average perimeter corner with immense upside, but he needs to develop play-to-play consistency. 

Gilmore is a significant upgrade on the departed Brown as the corner opposite Diggs. Almost 33 years old, he’s no longer the shutdown shadow man he was in his 2018-19 two-time first-team All-Pro Defensive Player of the Year prime, but the 2012 first-rounder is still a physical defender who supports in the run game and had an 81.1 PFF coverage grade last year with the Colts. 

Lewis is a 2017 third-rounder who became the team’s full-time slot man in the second half of 2019. He’s a good blitzer (eight sacks in 50 pass rushes since 2019), but he has been average at best in coverage since becoming a starter, and he’s uncertain to be ready for Week 1 due to the season-ending Lisfranc injury he suffered last year in Week 7.

Bland is a 2022 fifth-rounder who has inside/outside versatility and stepped up in a big way as a rookie to man the slot with league-average play after Lewis’ injury. Even if Lewis is able to return in time for Week 1, Bland could beat him out for a starting job. 

Wright is a 2021 third-rounder with the size (6-foot-4 and 185 pounds) but not the coverage skills to match up with perimeter WRs. In his two end-of-season spot starts last year, he allowed 157 yards receiving on 12 targets — but he might be better than Joseph, a 2021 second-rounder who was great as a rookie (3.3 yards per target, zero touchdowns) but horrendous last year (12.7 yards per target, four touchdowns). The Cowboys must hope that at least one of them is a serviceable backup this year, and they’re both at risk of losing a roster spot to Scott, an upside sixth-round rookie with great explosiveness (39.5-inch vertical, 11-foot-1 broad jump).

Wilson is an athletic and rangy homegrown second-contract veteran who started for the Cowboys in 2020, served as the No. 3 S in 2021, and then led the unit with 1,102 snaps in 2022 as the team shifted to a dime-heavy defense. He has an above-average all-around skill set that allows him to succeed in coverage, run defense and even pass rush and to line up in the box, at the slot and back deep. 

Kearse joined the Cowboys in 2021 after starting his career in the NFC North (2016-19 Vikings, 2020 Lions), where he was rarely more than a backup. With the Cowboys, though, he quickly became a starter and has been a strong contributor for two years. He has been consistently robust against the run throughout his career. Hooker is a super-sub veteran safety who — like Kearse — joined the team in 2021 as a free agent. A 2017 first-rounder who started 35 games for the 2017-20 Colts but struggled with injuries and expectations, he has anchored the FS spot for the Cowboys and enabled them to leverage Wilson and Kearse’s versatility. 

Mukuamu is a 2021 sixth-rounder who entered college as a three-star safety and switched to corner at South Carolina, so he has the versatility to play multiple positions and the size (6-foot-4 and 205 pounds) to match up with physical pass catchers. Bell is an undrafted second-year special teamer who could struggle to make the team given how stacked the safety group is.

Specialists

• Kicker: Tristan Vizcaino
• Punter: Bryan Anger
• Holder: Bryan Anger
• Long Snapper: Trent Sieg
• Kick Returner: KaVontae Turpin
• Punt Returner: KaVontae Turpin
• Notable Turnover: K Brett Maher (free agent), LSs Jake McQuaide (Lions) & Matt Overton (free agent)

Vizcaino is a tryout-caliber kicker getting a shot at a roster spot. In his four-year career, he has played 10 games, converted 75.0% of his kicks and attempted no field goals of 50-plus yards. This is what it looks like when a team decides to go cheap. Vizcaino is an unpromising replacement for the departed Maher, who last year had a 90.6% conversion rate and was a ridiculous 9-of-11 on attempts of 50-plus yards. 

Anger is a solid veteran who was second-team All-Pro in 2021 (his first year the team) and has had an identical 48.4 yards per punt in his past two seasons. Sieg joins the Cowboys from the Raiders, where he long snapped for five seasons but had a career-worst 32.7 PFF grade last year. I’m no long-snapping evaluator, and logic suggests that Sieg will regress toward his career average — but he seems like a subpar replacement for McQuaide and Overton, who have 22 years of NFL experience and three Pro Bowls between them. 

Turpin didn’t take any returns to the house last year, but he was solidly above average with 10.4 yards per punt return and 24.2 yards per kick return.

Cowboys schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Cowboys’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 14
• Home Division: NFC East
• Opposing Divisions: AFC East, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 13-18
• Opponents: vs. SEA, vs. PHI, at BUF, at MIA, vs. DET, at WAS

The Cowboys have a moderate strength of schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, primarily because they’re matched up against the NFC West (Rams and Cardinals) this year. But they have two separate three-of-four aways, the second of which falls in their key closing stretch.

They have home games in Weeks 13-14, but those are against the Seahawks (a playoff team) on Thursday Night Football and the divisional rival Eagles (NFC champions, rematch) on Sunday Night Football. Then they have back-to-back road games against the Bills (playoff team) and Dolphins (playoff team). In Week 17 they head back home for a Saturday primetime matchup against the Lions, and then they go back on the road to face the divisional rival Commanders (rematch).

Each of those games the Cowboys could legitimately lose, and if they enter that stretch with a disappointing record — and that could happen, because they play the Jets, 49ers, Chargers, Eagles, and Giants twice in Weeks 1-12 — then the Cowboys could collapse under the pressure of needing to win most of their six final games to make the playoffs.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Cowboys.

• Jones talks passive aggressively to the media about how he’d like to see McCarthy manage the team.
• McCarthy calls plays unimaginatively and makes costly late-game decisions.
• Schottenheimer coordinates a bland and predictable offense.
• Quinn presses too much on defense to try to compensate for the team’s underproductive offense.
• Prescott quietly stews about the state of the offense without Moore.
• Pollard can’t handle the load of being a lead back, and Elliott returns to the team out of shape and gets 150-plus carries.
• Lamb openly feuds on the sideline with McCarthy and Schottenheimer about the offense, and his agents make noise by saying that he won’t play for the team in 2024 on the fifth-year option.
• Cooks sits out the second half of the year with a minor/phantom injury, and Gallup can’t handle the role of No. 2 WR.
• Ferguson and Schoonmaker both underwhelm.
• Tyron Smith misses 10 games to injury, Steele suffers a setback in camp and misses the first six games of the season, Martin starts to slow down because of age, and the Cowboys OL depth reveals itself to be thin.
• Parsons plays too much at LB because that’s what the team thinks it needs.
• Odighizuwa and Smith fail to stop the run, and they get no support from their backups.
• Vander Esch misses significant time, and Clark and Overshown aren’t ready to be starters.
• Diggs is repeatedly exposed on double moves, Gilmore declines, and Lewis misses the first half of the year because of his foot injury.
• Wilson, Kearse, and Hooker are stretched thin trying to pick up the slack of the CB and LB units.
• Vizcaino misses key kicks, is cut in the middle of the season and is replaced by a nameless, faceless series of training camp rejects who also miss key kicks.
• Sieg has a bad snap in a big moment in a must-win game.
• The Cowboys lose a Week 18 “win-and-in” road game against the Commanders on a wide-left last-minute field goal attempt, miss the playoffs with an 8-9 record, fire McCarthy, and name Quinn the next coach.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Cowboys.

• Jones is circumspect with the media and says nothing controversial.
• McCarthy solicits Prescott’s feedback on the offensive playcalling and arranges for an analytics assistant to have significant input on high-leverage decisions.
• Schottenheimer caters the scheme to his players and has more of a Moore-style offense than expected.
• Quinn continues to crush.
• Prescott leads the league in adjusted yards per attempt.
• Pollard has 1,800 yards from scrimmage, and Davis and Dowdle complement him as functional backs.
• Lamb has a career-high 1,500 yards receiving and is named first-team All-Pro, Cook embraces his role as the No. 2 WR on a winning team and Gallup exploits soft coverage with occasional big games.
• Ferguson and Schoonmaker form an efficient pass-catching duo. 
• Tyron Smith plays 14 games, Steele is ready to start Week 1 and Martin is his typical dominant self.
• Parsons has 20-plus sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.
• Odighizuwa and Smith stabilize the interior of the defensive line.
• Vander Esch stays healthy, and Clark and Overshown impress with starter-quality contributions.
• Diggs displays a previously heretofore unseen discipline in coverage, Gilmore energizes the secondary with his attitude and Lewis returns for the season opener.
• Wilson, Kearse, and Hooker earn national attention as a trio and start calling themselves “The Hounds of Hell” in honor of the three-headed Cerberus.
• Vizcaino manages to be a league-average kicker.
• Sieg proves that all long snappers are the same.
• The Cowboys get the No. 2 seed, secure #RevengeGame victories for McCarthy and Quinn over the Packers and Falcons in the first two rounds, host the NFC Championship against the 49ers and avenge last year’s Divisional Round loss and then win a low-scoring Super Bowl against the Chargers and their former OC thanks to a heroic goal-line stand by the defense.

In-season Cowboys betting angles

I view the Cowboys as a moderate “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage in division based on the following trends.

• Prescott in Division: 24-10 ATS (37.7% ROI)
• Prescott in Division: 27-7 ML (32.3% ROI)

Prescott has also done well in primetime.

• Prescott in Primetime: 21-12-1 ATS (20.4% ROI)
• Prescott in Primetime: 22-11 ML (14.1% ROI)

I don’t think the Cowboys are outright fadable at any point during the season.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason Cowboys betting market to exploit

I’m tempted by Tony Pollard at +5000 (BetMGM) to win Offensive Player of the Year. He’s an explosive franchise-tag playmaker who could dominate work in an offense that flows through the backfield.

But there is one team-based futures market that I think offers some value on the Cowboys, so I want to highlight that.

Cowboys NFC Champions +650 (Caesars)

I think it’s a 3.5-team race in the NFC to make the Super Bowl: The Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are all in roughly the same tier, followed by the Lions.

And I think of the Lions as a somewhat distant No. 4.

Hence, a 3.5-team race.

The best odds in the market right now for the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys are these, along with their implied probabilities.

• Eagles: +330 (FanDuel), 23.3%
• 49ers: +425 (DraftKings), 19.1%
• Cowboys: +650 (Caesars), 13.3%

I don’t see the Eagles as being 10 percentage points likelier than the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl — and the 49ers, in a best-case scenario, will be starting a second-year seventh-rounder off of elbow surgery in Week 1.

I’m not saying that this is a roll of a three-sided die. The Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys shouldn’t have equal odds to win the NFC. But I think the Cowboys’ true probability of making the Super Bowl are in the 15-18% range.

And so they offer value at +650.

You can take the value and also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for Caesars Sportsbook below!