2023 Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos entered last season with “Let’s Ride” hopes higher than Mile High Stadium after trading two first- and two second-round picks (and more) for “franchise” QB Russell Wilson.

Those hopes died a quick but painful death as Wilson had the worst campaign of his career and first-year HC Nathaniel Hackett repeatedly proved that he couldn’t hack it (I’m not sorry for the pun) before being fired with two games remaining. 

As if they hadn’t traded away enough of their future, the Broncos went all-in this offseason be sending first-, second- and third-round picks to the Saints for the rights to pseudo-retired HC Sean Payton — but only after Jim Harbaugh decided to return to Michigan, Dan Quinn opted to stay with the Cowboys and DeMeco Ryans accepted the Texans HC job.

This year, the Broncos have diminished expectations. If Payton — the coach who almost certainly wasn’t the team’s first choice — can help Wilson improve to “not terrible,” the season will be a success. If in doing that he can get the Broncos to the playoffs, even better.

In this 2023 Broncos preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Broncos preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 17. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 17. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 17.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 17.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 17.

General Manager and Head Coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: George Paton
• Head Coach: Sean Payton
• Team Power Rating: -1
• Team Power Ranking: No. 20
• Coach Ranking: No. 7

Paton — pronounced “Payton,” as in “Sean Payton,” or even “Peyton Manning,” so not at all confusing — was hired as Broncos GM in January 2021 as the replacement to John Elway, who was “promoted” to president of football operations. Since then, Paton has fired two coaches (Vic Fangio, Hackett), hired two coaches (Hackett, Payton) and seen the team sold from the Pat Bowlen estate to the Walton-Penner Family Group for a North American record of $4.65 billion.

Given his circumstances, it’s hard to evaluate Paton fully… but hiring Hackett, trading enormous assets for Wilson and then giving him a five-year $245 million contract with $161 million guaranteed were all questionable-at-best decisions.

Even trading for Payton was potentially problematic — not to mention that it’s highly undesirable that the media could so clearly see that Payton wanted other candidates before settling on Payton, and it doesn’t reflect well on him that he was able to secure interviews with his top candidates but not get them: They were interested enough in being Broncos HC to talk to him, but after talking with him… they didn’t want the job. That’s not a good look.

And it’s hard to say that anything good or bad that happened with Paton’s previous teams had much to do with him, given that he was never a primary decision-maker. But whatever you think of former Vikings GM Rick Spielman is probably an approximation for what you should think of Paton, given that he was Speilman’s right-hand man for almost the entirety of his pre-Broncos career, starting with the 1997-99 Bears (scouting intern, pro scout), continuing with the 2001-04 Dolphins (director of pro personnel) and ending with the 2007-20 Vikings (director of player personnel, assistant GM and finally assistant GM/VP of player personnel).

If your general response is “I don’t think anything about Spielman" —that sentiment probably is warranted for Paton. It’s too early to make any definitive determination, but he feels like a GM whom fans won’t remember at best — or will want to forget at worst. 

As for Payton — the “real” Payton — not much needs to be said. The guy is almost certainly a Hall of Famer. As the 2000-02 Giants OC, he took an offense that was No. 17 in yards and steadily improved it each year (Nos. 13, 9 and 6). As the 2003-05 Cowboys QBs coach and passing game coordinator, he developed undrafted QB Tony Romo. And as the 2006-21 Saints HC, he constructed an offense that was top-six in yardage for 12 straight years and top-12 every year except for 2021 — his first Saints season without QB Drew Brees.

Without Brees, the 2006-21 Saints were certainly a lesser team (28.3 points per game, 2.56 points per drive, 7.6 yards per pass with him vs. 23.1, 2.11 and 6.5 without him, per RotoViz). Payton is a magician, but he’s not a wizard: He can’t make any non-Brees QB — like Wilson — automatically have Brees-like production.

But even without Brees, Payton managed to go 17-12 with the Saints and 17-5 specifically with QBs Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. If there’s one coach who can gameplan around Wilson’s flaws — and maybe diminish them — it’s probably the Super Bowl-winning Peyton.

Sean Payton coaching record

• Years: 15
• Playoffs: 9
• Division Titles: 7
• Super Bowls: 1
• Championships: 1
• Win Total Record: 9-4-2
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +1.1
• Regular Season: 152-89 (.631)
• Playoff Record: 9-8 (.529)
• Against the Spread: 140-115-3 (7.6% ROI)
• Moneyline: 161-97 (5.6% ROI)
• Over/Under: 136-120-2 (4.4% ROI, Over)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs, also includes one 2021 game Payton missed to COVID. That game was technically coached by DC Dennis Allen, but the team was still Payton’s.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Joe Lombardi
• Offensive Playcaller: Sean Payton
• Pass Game Coordinator: John Morton
• OL Coach: Zach Strief
• QBs Coach: Davis Webb
• RBs Coach: Lou Ayeni
• WRs Coach: Keary Colbert
• TEs Coach: Declan Doyle
• Notable Turnover: Playcaller Nathaniel Hackett (Jets), OC Justin Outten (Titans), Pass Game Coordinator/QBs Coach Klint Kubiak (49ers), RBs Coach Tyrone Wheatley (Wayne State), WRs Coach Zach Azzanni (Jets), TEs Coach Jake Moreland (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Lombardi — the grandson of Hall of Fame HC Vince Lombardi — is a long-tenured Payton lieutenant. After playing TE for Air Force, serving four years on active duty and bouncing around the college ranks and XFL for a decade while coaching offense (TEs/OTs, TEs/RBs, OC/QBs) and defense (DL), Lombardi jumped to the NFL and spent a year with the Falcons (2006) as a defensive assistant before going to the Saints.

After seven years there (2007-08 offensive assistant, 2009-13 QBs coach), he leveraged his proximity with Payton and Brees into a position as the Lions OC (2014-15) — but he was fired in the middle of his second season. In 2016, he resumed his role with the Saints as QBs coach and then once again leveraged that into an OC job, this time with the Chargers (2021-22), who dismissed him after two seasons. And now he’s reunited with Payton, this time as his OC.

I’m skeptical that Lombardi deserves much credit for Brees’ success. Sure, he was his position coach for a decade — but Brees was great before working with Lombardi, and Payton and OC Pete Carmichael were the guys running the offense. And as a coordinator, he has had mixed results.

As Lions OC, Lombardi took a unit that was Nos. 6 and 13 in yards and scoring and made it Nos. 19 and 22. The year after that, when the unit was even worse, he was replaced after seven games. As the Chargers OC, Lombardi oversaw a unit that was top-10 in yards both seasons — but it failed to maximize the talents of QB Justin Herbert.

Jan 8, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs the ball in the second quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Lombardi has done little apart from Payton to elicit faith. But that probably doesn’t matter, since he’s back with Payton, who will call the plays. And given how well Lombardi knows Payton, he should probably be fine as the guy entrusted with the daily responsibilities of running the offense.

Morton is a longtime coach who has worked for Payton twice previously, first as a passing game assistant in 2006 and then as the WRs coach in 2015-16. He has also worked for Jon Gruden (twice), Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Jim Harbaugh (twice), Pete Carroll, Lane Kiffin and Todd Bowles — and last year he was the senior offensive assistant to Lions HC Dan Campbell, whom he worked with on the 2016 Saints staff. Given Morton’s overall experience and specific familiarity with Payton, he’s a good fit.

Strief is a former 12-year NFL OT who played his entire career (2006-17) for the Saints and made 94 starts before eventually joining the Saints staff as their assistant OL coach (2021-22). He might know what Payton wants from his offensive line better than anyone. Webb is a former six-year NFL journeyman (2017 Giants, 2018 Jets, 2019-21 Bills, 2022 Giants).

More of a “coach in the room” backup than an actual player, Webb made only one start at QB in the NFL — it was just last year — but even before that the Bills wanted to hire him as QBs coach. After 2022, he decided to retire and join Payton’s staff. 

Ayeni is a guy I’m going to keep an eye on. I could see him getting some HC/OC buzz in a couple of years. He’s just beginning his first NFL coaching gig, but he understands both sides of the ball: He played RB in college and then switched to safety as a senior and then played safety (2004-05 Colts) in the NFL before shifting to LB (2005-06 Rams). As a college associate HC and RBs coach/running game coordinator, he developed three-down NFL RBs Kareem Hunt and David Montgomery at non-powerhouse programs (Toledo, Iowa State). 

Colbert is a 2004 second-rounder who spent seven years as an NFL WR before transitioning to coaching. After 10 consecutive years in the college ranks — the past five as a pass catchers coach (TEs/inside receivers and then WRs) — Colbert is jumping up to the NFL. Doyle joins the Broncos after four years with the Saints (2019-22) as an offensive assistant and three years at Iowa as a student assistant (2016-18). Less than a half decade removed from his college graduation, he’s already an NFL position coach. Doyle might be on the Sean McVay fast track.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Vance Joseph
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Joe Vitt
• DL Coach: Marcus Dixon
• Outside LBs Coach: Michael Wilhoite
• Inside LBs Coach: Greg Manusky
• DBs Coach: Christian Parker
• Notable Turnover: DC Ejiro Evero (Panthers), Senior Defensive Assistant Dom Capers (Panthers), Outside LBs Coach Bert Watts (Panthers), LBs Coach Peter Hansen (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Well… this is awkward. Joseph is the former HC of the 2017-18 Broncos, and now after being exiled to the desert of Arizona he returns to Denver — but this time as the DC. As the Cardinals DC, Joseph did get the most out of a talent-poor unit, twice ranking top-12 in scoring in a four-year span, but last year the defense regressed to No. 31 and he was fired along with the rest of the coaching staff.

A DBs coach by trade, Joseph at least (in theory) should be able to make the most of the secondary — the strength of the defense — but only once has he had a defense finish top-10 in yards and never top-10 in scoring. The strong play we saw out of the 2021-22 Broncos under Fangio and then Evero we might not see in 2023. It probably helps that he has Vitt, who started coaching in the NFL with the Baltimore Colts. That’s right, “Baltimore.” Vitt was Payton’s longtime consigliere and assistant HC/LBs coach on the Saints (2006-16).

Dixon is a holdover from the Evero regime. A former seven-year NFL DT, he coached at Hampton for four seasons before doing a one-year stint as assistant DL coach on the Super Bowl-winning 2021 Rams and then jumping with Evero to the Broncos last year. Wilhoite was a seven-year NFL LB who worked for Payton on the 2019-20 Saints (special teams assistant, defensive assistant) and then was the LBs coach on the 2021-22 Chargers opposite Lombardi.

Manusky was a 12-year NFL LB who has been coaching since 2001. A four-time DC (2007-10 49ers, 2011 Chargers, 2012-15 Colts, 2017-19 Redskins), he’s a valuably experienced position coach. Parker — like Dixon — is a holdover. After working his way up the college ranks and serving as a quality control coach on the 2019-20 Packers, he joined the Broncos as DBs coach in 2021 under Fangio. Given the success of the secondary under his guidance, Payton (and Evero before him) was wise to keep Parker on his staff. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Ben Kotwica
• assistant HC: Mike Westhoff
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Chris Banjo
• Notable Turnover: Coordinator Dwayne Stukes, assistant Coach Mike Mallory

Kotwica — and I say this with full sincerity — is an American badass. An Army LB, he served as an attack helicopter pilot for eight years in the armed forces with deployments to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Korea and Iraq. After rising to the rank of captain, he got into coaching and served as the Army DC for two years before joining the Jets in 2007 as a quality control coach and working his way up to special teams coordinator (2013).

After coordinator stints with the 2014-18 Redskins and 2019-20 Falcons, he was the assistant special teams coach for the Vikings last year. If he told me to strap on a helmet, run 50 yards downfield and tackle a punt returner, I’d try.

Westhoff theoretically reports to Payton, but he’ll likely help out Kotwica most. A special teams coach in the NFL for almost 30 straight seasons (1982-2012, minus 1985, when he did a season in the USFL), Westhoff mentored Kotwica on the Jets for six years (2007-12), and when he officially retired Kotwica was promoted from assistant to coordinator as his successor.

He came out of retirement in the middle of the 2017 season to help with the Saints special teams and stayed for the 2018 campaign before retiring a second time — and now he has unretired again to team back up with Payton and Kotwica.

Banjo is a 2012 undrafted free agent who played safety and special teams for the 2016-18 Saints. After spending the last four years of his career on Joseph’s 2019-22 Cardinals defense, he retired this offseason and immediately joined Payton’s staff.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Russell Wilson
• Backups: Jarrett Stidham, Ben DiNucci
• Borderline: Jarrett Guarantano
• Notable Turnover: QB Brett Rypien (Rams)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Russell Wilson is Eli Manning with five more Pro Bowls but one less Super Bowl. Prior to last season, people talked about him as a locked-in Hall of Famer. He’s not. He’s borderline. He was very good for the first 10 years of his career with the Seahawks — occasionally great — but he has never been all-time great. He has never been one of the top-two QBs in the league. He has never even received an MVP vote. And then last year in his first season with the Broncos he had career-worst marks with a 60.5% completion rate, 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt, a 36.7 QBR and league-high 55 sacks.

Wilson has reached an inflection point in his career. Either he gets better this season — and it’s hard to imagine him not having at least something of a bounce-back campaign, because last year was so unbelievably terrible — or Payton eventually benches, trades or cuts him and implicitly says to the world, “I can’t win with this guy. He’s done.”

When a very good (but not great) QB does what Wilson did last year, I tend to think he has begun his rapid descent down the age apex. But maybe Payton can revitalize him.

Jarrett Stidham is a 2019 fourth-rounder with some appeal. A five-star recruit who played well in college (9.0 AY/A), Stidham did little in his first three NFL seasons as a Patriot backup, but last year with the Raiders he flashed potential with 584-4-3 passing on a 64.3% completion rate and 7.6 AY/A and 14-84-0 rushing in two starts. He’s probably just a No. 2 QB, but if Wilson fails then he could get an audition for the long-term starting job.

DiNucci is a 2020 seventh-rounder who led the XFL with 2,671 yards passing and chipped in 305 yards rushing in 10 starts this year. Guarantano is a 2022 UDFA who has four-star dual-threat ability. He has a shot to beat out DiNucci with a good camp.

Projections as of July 19.

Running Backs

• Starter: Javonte Williams
• Backups: Samaje Perine, Tony Jones
• Fullback: Michael Burton
• Borderline: RB Tyler Badie
• Notable Turnover: RBs Melvin Gordon (free agent), Latavius Murray (Bills), Mike Boone (Texans) and Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers), FB Andrew Beck (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Javonte Williams is a 2021 second-rounder who exhibited a true three-down skill set as a rookie (203-903-4 rushing, 43-316-3 receiving on 53 targets), but he missed most of 2023 with a serious season-ending knee injury involving ACL, LCL and PLC tears. He is uncertain to be ready for Week 1 and could be a PUP candidate.

Samaje Perine is a 27-year-old veteran who failed to capitalize on a starting opportunity as a rookie but established himself with the Bengals over the past three years as a strong No. 2 back. With a bruising build (5-foot-10 and 236 pounds) and pass-catching skills, he lacked as a prospect (76-549-5 receiving on 94 targets since 2020), Perine will likely carry a significant share of the load this year — perhaps even more than Williams does.

Tony Jones is a 2020 UDFA who lived on the Saints practice squad as a rookie and made the 53-man roster in 2021. He offers little as a runner (2.7 yards per carry) or receiver (3.7 yards per target), but he’s one of Payton’s pets. Still, he’ll need to beat out Tyler Badie, a 2022 sixth-rounder with small size (5-foot-8 and 197 pounds) but adequate athleticism (4.45-second 40-yard dash), strong pass-catching ability (126-1,149-11 receiving in college) and kick return flexibility.

Michael Burton is a 31-year-old journeyman lead blocker who played a career-high 235 offensive snaps in his one season with Payton on the 2020 Saints.

Projections as of July 19.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick
• WR Backups: Marvin Mims, K.J. Hamler, Marquez Callaway
• TE Starter: Greg Dulcich
• TE Backups: Chris Manhertz, Adam Trautman
• Borderline: WRs Kendall Hinton and Montrell Washington, TE Albert Okwuegbunam
• Notable Turnover: TEs Eric Tomlinson (Free Agent) and Eric Saubert (Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Jerry Jeudy is a 2020 first-rounder who is coming off his best campaign (1,012 yards, six touchdowns from scrimmage) and has gotten better every season (7.6 yards per target to 8.3 and then 9.7 last year; 1.66 yards per route to 1.85 and then 2.18). With his fifth-year option picked up, Jeudy — a slot receiver with perimeter ability — seems to be in the team’s long-term plans. Sutton is a second-contract veteran who had 72-1,112-6 receiving for the Broncos in 2019 but missed most of 2020 with a torn ACL.

He has a respectable 122-1,605-4 receiving over the past two years, but he hasn’t had the same playmaking ability since returning from injury (8.8 yards per target before injury vs. 7.8 after).

Tim Patrick is a 2017 UDFA whose hype has been hilariously high for years.

He was a strong supplementary receiver in 2020-21 with 104-1,476-11 receiving with 9.0 yards per target, but he missed all of 2022 with a knee injury and is at risk of losing his presumed starting spot to Mims, a 21-year-old second-round rookie who put up 1,083 yards as a true junior and a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine.

K.J. Hamler is a 2020 second-rounder who missed almost all of 2021 with an ACL injury and then most of 2022 with a hamstring injury. He has just 683 scrimmage yards through three years and could miss the start of 2023 recovering from a pectoral surgery. Callaway is a 2020 UDFA Payton pet who played for the Saints for the past three years and actually led the team in 2021 with 46-698-6 receiving.

Kendall Hinton and Montrell Washington are 2022 Broncos holdovers who are at risk of falling off the roster but could compete with Hamler and Callaway for spots. Hinton is a QB-to-WR convert who famously and catastrophically was forced to start at QB on short notice in the 2020 COVID season (vs. Payton’s Saints).

Since then, he has been an adequate contributor (8.7 yards per target) as a rotational slot receiver. Washington is a 2022 fifth-rounder who was an occasional gadget player (five carries, four receptions) as a rookie but the full-time return man. 

Greg Dulcich is a 2022 third-rounder who impressed last year with 33-411-2 receiving in 10 games. He’s a subpar run blocker (33.8 PFF grade) and pass blocker (27.7 PFF), but he could develop into a Pro Bowl pass catcher.

Chris Manhertz is a 31-year-old journeyman offseason addition and a classic No. 2 TE who plays the supermajority of his snaps inline, is an average-at-worst blocker and has never had even 10 targets in a year. He was on the Saints practice squad in 2015 and their active roster for some of 2016.

Adam Trautman is a 2020 third-rounder whom the Saints drafted and played regularly (1,611 snaps in three years) but never unlocked (60-641-4 receiving), so they traded him to Payton in April. He’ll likely push for playing time and probably push Albert Okwuegbunam off the roster.

Okwuegbunam entered the league as a talent-laden Day 3 pick with a Jimmy Graham-like athletic profile (4.49-second 40-yard dash at 6foot-6 and 258 pounds), but he was plagued by knee and hamstring injuries in his first two years and then had just 95 yards receiving last season. 

Projections as of July 19.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Garett Bolles, LG Ben Powers, C Lloyd Cushenberry, RG Quinn Meinerz, RT Mike McGlinchey
• Backups: OT Cam Fleming, G/T Quinn Bailey, G/C Luke Wattenberg, C/G Alex Forsyth
• Borderline: C/G Kyle Fuller, OT Isaiah Prince
• Notable Turnover: RT Billy Turner (Jets), LG Dalton Risner (free agent), C/G Graham Glasgow (Lions), OT Calvin Anderson (Patriots) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Bolles is a 31-year-old franchise blindside tackle who has been a consistently strong but never elite pass protector and run blocker since his 2017 rookie season. Powers is a second-contract import who counterbalanced his run-blocking ineffectiveness with pass-blocking superiority over the past four years with the Ravens. Cushenberry is a 2020 third-rounder who has never had a PFF run-blocking grade above 62.5.

Meinerz is a 2021 third-rounder who has displayed above-average blocking ability in both phases. McGlinchey joins the Broncos after five starting seasons with the 49ers. He’s a steady pass protector and bullying run pusher.

Fleming is a journeyman with 61 starts for his career and 19 for the Broncos since joining the team in 2021. Capable of playing on both sides of the line, he’s an asset as the swing tackle. After Fleming, the Broncos are thin.

Bailey is a 2019 UDFA with 202 subpar snaps and one start for the Broncos since his rookie year. Wattenberg is a 2022 fifth-rounder with a 33.7 PFF grade on limited action (90 snaps) last year. Forsyth is a four-star seventh-round rookie with poor athleticism (20.5-inch vertical, 7-foot-11 broad jumps).

Given the team’s lack of quality depth, offseason additions Fuller and Prince could push for roster spots. Fuller is a 29-year-old journeyman with almost no green on his PFF page, but he at least can play all three interior spots. Prince is a 2019 sixth-rounder who is bad a pass blocking (42 pressures on 410 pass rushes) but competent in run blocking.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Frank Clark, Randy Gregory
• EDGE Backups: Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper, Nik Bonitto, Thomas Incoom
• DT Starters: Zach Allen, D.J. Jones
• DT Backups: Mike Purcell, Matt Henningsen, Eyioma Uwazurike
• Borderline: EDGE Aaron Patrick, DT Jonathan Harris
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Bradley Chubb (Dolphins) and Jacob Martin (Texans), DTs Dre’Mont Jones (Seahawks) and DeShawn Williams (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Clark joins the Broncos on a one-year deal as a short-term Chubb replacement after eight years with the Seahawks (2015-18) and Chiefs (2019-22). A three-time Pro Bowler, Clark is upper middle class as a pass rusher and penurious as a run defender. Gregory played just six games last year in his first Broncos campaign, and staying on the field has been a career-long issue for him, either due to injury or suspension. With just 18.5 career sacks, the 30-year-old veteran is long on potential but short on production. 

Browning is a 2021 third-rounder who transitioned from box backer to edge defender last year. Although he’s soft against the run because of his size (6-foot-3 and 240 pounds), Browning was an asset against the pass in 2022 (38 pressures in 284 pass rushes). Cooper is a 2021 seventh-rounder with 900 snaps over the past two years.

He’s dependable as a rotational contributor in both phases. Bonitto is a 2022 second-rounder who had a 52.4 PFF grade as a rookie. Incoom is a 24-year-old rookie UDFA who had good production as a senior (11.5 sacks, 56 tackles) and great athleticism at the combine (4.66-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 262 pounds).

The Broncos signed him to a three-year deal with $200,000 guaranteed, so he’ll probably push Patrick (2020 UDFA special teamer) off the roster, especially since Patrick tore his ACL in Week 6.

Allen joins the Broncos after four years with the Cardinals under DC Vance Joseph. He has interior/edge flexibility and is coming off a career year with 35 pressures and six sacks — although he’s a liability against the run. Jones is a 28-year-old nose-capable veteran who was functional (albeit uninspiring) last year in his first season with the Broncos.

Purcell is a bona fide zero-technique gap clogger thanks to his size (6-foot-2 and 328 pounds). He has been an average-at-worst run defender in his four years with the team.

Henningsen is a 2022 sixth-rounder who lines up primarily over tackle and had a 70.1 PFF run defense grade last year. Uwazurike is a 2022 fourth-rounder with the heft (320 pounds) to line up inside and the length (6-foot-6) to play on the edge.

They will likely compete for the No. 4 interior defender spot. Harris is a 2019 UDFA who has bounced between the Broncos practice squad and active roster since his rookie year. With the addition of Allen — and given that Harris has never had a PFF grade higher than 62.5 — I doubt he’ll open the year with a roster spot.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Josey Jewell, Alex Singleton
• Backups: Drew Sanders, Jonas Griffith
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Jewell is a 2018 fourth-rounder who has missed 19 games over the past two years but has been an every-week starter for the Broncos when healthy since 2020. He’s a plus player against the run, on the pass rush, and in coverage, and has had PFF grades above 68 in every year since his second season.

Singleton is a 29-year-old veteran who played the first part of his career in the CFL, where he was the 2017 Most Outstanding Defensive Player and a two-time All-Star before jumping to the NFL in 2019 and starting 19 games for the Eagles in 2020-21. He had a career-best 79.1 PFF grade last year in his first season with the Broncos.

Sanders is a 21-year-old five-star third-round rookie who played mainly special teams and minimally edge for two seasons at Alabama before transferring to Arkansas, where he racked up 103 tackles, 9.5 sacks, five passes defended and one interception in 12 games. With his box/edge versatility and athleticism (4.59-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 236 pounds), he has Pro Bowl potential.

Griffith is a 2020 UDFA with mediocre defensive play but strong special teams contribution for the Broncos over the past two years.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Patrick Surtain, Damarri Mathis, K'Waun Williams
• CB Backups: Riley Moss, Tremon Smith
• S Starters: Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson
• S Backups: J.L. Skinner, Caden Sterns, P.J. Locke
• Borderline: CBs Essang Bassey and Ja’Quan McMillian, S Delarrin Turner-Yell
• Notable Turnover: CB Ronald Darby (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Surtain is the 2021 No. 9 pick overall and a 2022 first-team All-Pro. A perimeter eliminator with shadow willingness, Surtain held pass catchers to just 6.0 yards per target last year and is active in run support. He’s the primary reason the Broncos secondary is what it is.

Mathis is a 2022 fourth-rounder who stepped up as a rookie with 11 starts. He allowed a 70.8% catch rate last year — a high mark for an outside corner — but he kept everything in front of him and yielded just 6.3 yards per target. Williams is a 32-year-old slot man who was his typical solid self last year in his first season with the Broncos. He has never had a PFF coverage grade below 60.    

Moss is a grit-and-spit third-round rookie who arrived at college without a scholarship and left Iowa a team captain with 40 starts. He has NFL speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash), size (6-foot-1 and 193 pounds), and ball-hawking instincts (11 interceptions, 22 passes defended in college).

Smith is a 27-year-old journeyman who has been a special teams ace for the past three years (2020 Colts, 2021-22 Texans). The additions of Moss and Smith could push Bassey and McMillian off the roster. Bassey is a 2020 UDFA with a high PFF coverage grade of 51.7. McMillian is a 2022 UDFA who didn’t play until Week 18 last year.

Simmons is a 29-year-old Broncos lifer with safety/slot versatility and consistent production in coverage and against the run. Since he shifted to more of a centerfield role in 2019 — when Simmons joined the team — he has one Pro Bowl and three second-team All-Pros.

Jackson is a 35-year-old veteran who played cornerback (perimeter and slot) for the first nine years of his career with the Texans, but for the past four seasons he has played safety for the Broncos. With above-average two-phase skills, Jackson is almost interchangeable with Simmons on the field.

Skinner is a sixth-round rookie with elite size for a box safety (6-foot-4 and 209 pounds). He slipped to Day 3 because of a February pectoral injury, which prevented him from working out before the draft, but he should be ready to play as a rookie. He had 157 tackles and six interceptions in his final two college seasons. Sterns is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has played 585 snaps over the past two years and can fill in at both safety spots adequately.

Locke is a 2019 UDFA who has been a core special teamer for the Broncos for the past three years. Turner-Yell is a 2022 fifth-rounder who had eight special teams tackles last season, but he also played just one defensive snap.

Specialists

• Kicker: Elliott Fry
• Punter: Riley Dixon
• Holder: Riley Dixon
• Long Snapper: Mitchell Fraboni
• Kick Returner: Marvin Mims
• Punt Returner: Marvin Mims
• Borderline: KR/PR Montrell Washington
• Notable Turnover: K Brandon McManus (Jaguars), P Corliss Waitman (Patriots) and LS Jacob Bobenmoyer (Raiders)

Fry is a 2017 UDFA who has been on 10 different NFL teams but played only three games. Since college, the most action he has seen is in the AAF, where he went 14-of-14 kicking for the league-best Apollos in 2019. He’s a shaky-at-best replacement for McManus, who had been with the team since 2014.

Dixon returns to Denver after playing the first two seasons of his career there (2016-17). Last year he had a career-best 48.4 yards per punt for the Rams but was No. 33 with 26.8% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Fraboni is a 2018 UDFA who has played only four NFL games — but he did rack up a 91.5 PFF grade last year as a midseason injury fill-in for the now-departed Bobenmoyer. We’ll see.

Washington is a mediocre return man (8.5 yards per punt return, 18.9 yards per kick return last year). I’m not sure if Mims will replace him — but someone probably will — and why not Mims? If he’s not starting at WR, the team will want to use the second-rounder somehow, and he has experience from college as a return specialist.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Broncos’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 21
• Home Division: AFC West
• Opposing Division: AFC East, NFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 10-15
• Opponents: at BUF, vs. MIN, vs. CLE, at HOU, at LAC, at DET

The Broncos have a moderate schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, but there are a couple of tough stretches. For instance, playing three games against the Jets and Chiefs (twice) in a four-week span right before the Week 9 bye will be a challenge.

And after the bye they travel to Buffalo as big underdogs for a Monday Night Football game against the Bills. For Week 11, they return home on a one-day rest advantage to host the Vikings on Sunday Night Football.

They stay home in Week 12 and host the Browns — and then they have three consecutive road games (at Texans, at Chargers, at Lions), not one of which is close to any of the others, so they can’t have a “we’re playing two games on the East Coast, and we’ll stay the week in Virginia” type of situation. That last game against the Lions should specifically be tough given all the preceding travel. The Broncos are one of just two teams to have three games in a row on the road this year.

But they’re favored at home against the Vikings and Browns, and the Texans and Chargers have minimal home-field advantages. If the Broncos are the kind of team to make a push to the playoffs, they’ll go at least 3-3 in this stretch and maybe 4-2. If, however, they can’t break even in Weeks 10-15, their postseason hopes will be doubtful — and Wilson might not be the starting QB for the final stretch of the year. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Broncos.

• HC Sean Payton can’t get his QB to buy into the offense or play within its structure, but he continues to start him for the supermajority of the season.
• DC Vance Joseph fails to match former DC Ejiro Evero as a schemer and play-caller.
• QB Russell Wilson continues to play like a shadow of his former self, and then reports surface in late December — shortly after he has been benched — that he and Ciara have separated.
• QB Jarrett Stidham replaces Wilson for the final three games of the season and looks like a guy who’s not a starter. 
• RB Javonte Williams misses the first third of the season because of his knee injury and is highly inefficient when he returns to action, and RB Samaje Perine looks like a past-his-prime plodder when asked to be the lead back for multiple games in a row.
• WR Jerry Jeudy openly feuds with Wilson on the sideline in a Week 8 blowout loss to the Chiefs, WR Courtland Sutton continues on his downward efficiency slope, WR TIm Patrick is sapped of his explosiveness after missing last season and WR Marvin Mims sees almost no action as a rookie.
• TE Greg Dulcich is reduced to a rotational player and fails to distinguish himself from TEs Chris Manhertz and Adam Trautman.
• The OL suffers injuries and its lack of depth is exploited.
• EDGEs Frank Clark and Randy Gregory form one of the league’s most underperforming pass-rush duos.
• DT Zach Allen doesn’t get enough help in replacing the production of departed starters DTs Dre’Mont Jones and DeShawn Williams.
• LB Josey Jewell misses half the year to injury, and LB Drew Sanders struggles as a rookie to replace him.
• CB Patrick Surtain questions the defensive scheme and playcalling after a Week 15 road loss to the Lions, CB Damarri Mathis plays like a Day 3 pick in his second season and CB K’Waun Williams slows down at the age of 32.
• K Elliott Fry and LS Mitchell Fraboni reveal themselves to be fringe NFL players with a series of crucial special teams mistakes before they both get cut in October.
• Broncos go 5-12, fire DC Vance Joseph and enter the offseason trying to trade Wilson for pennies on the dollar only to realize that they’ll need to trade draft picks along with Wilson to get another team to take his salary.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Broncos.

• HC Sean Payton successfully repurposes the latter-day Brees offense for Wilson.
• DC Vance Joseph can do only so much to limit the talent of his defense.
• QB Russell Wilson has the most efficient season of his career, and Subway puts the “Dangerwich” back on the menu.
• QB Jarrett Stidham plays well in his one game of duty as a spot starter.
• RBs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine both have 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
• WR Jerry Jeudy has his first 1,000-yard receiving season as Wilson’s new Doug Baldwin, WR Courtland Sutton regains some explosiveness another year removed from his ACL injury and WR Marvin Mims breaks into the starting lineup in camp and pushes WR Tim Patrick down into a rotational role.
• TE Greg Dulcich plays well enough to keep TEs Chris Manhertz and Adam Trautman firmly in backup roles.
• The OL stays healthy, powers the running game and keeps Wilson clean.
• EDGEs Frank Clark and Randy Gregory combine for 20 sacks.
• DT Zach Allen has the best year of his career thanks to his improved circumstances and advanced familiarity with Joseph’s scheme.
• LB Josey Jewell misses only two games to injury, and LB Drew Sanders dominates as a rotational player.
• CB Patrick Surtain gets Defensive Player of the Year hype after his multi-interception showing in a Week 15 road win over the Lions, CB Damarri Mathis repeats his rookie-year performance, and CB K’Waun Williams continues to play like a savvy veteran.
• K Elliott Fry and LS Mitchell Fraboni play well enough to keep their jobs.
• Broncos go 12-5, make the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, go on the road to beat the Jaguars by nine points on Super Wild Card Weekend and then lose to the Chiefs on a last-minute field goal in Kansas City in the Divisional Round a couple weeks before Payton wins his second AP Coach of the Year Award. 

In-season angles

I view the Broncos as a moderate “bet against” team, although I acknowledge that they have a wide range of outcomes, so I could be quick to adjust my prior assumptions on them based on how they perform early in the season.

As of now, I expect Wilson to be a little (but not much) better than he was last year and the defense to be a little (but not much) worse than it was last year, when the Broncos were 11-6 (24.2% ROI) to the under. I project them to be an under team once again.

If I were to bet on the Broncos, it would likely be as underdogs.

• Payton as Underdog: 50-30-2 ATS (22.6% ROI)
• Payton as Underdog Without QB Drew Brees: 10-5 ATS (28.2% ROI)
• Wilson as Underdog: 36-19-2 ATS (27.0% ROI)
• Wilson as Underdog With Broncos: 6-2 ATS (43.2% ROI)  

But I don’t see myself betting on them often this season.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

A few lines stand out to me when I survey the Broncos futures markets.

First, if you look at the best odds we can find, there’s a synthetic negative-hold win total market between FanDuel and Caesars

• Over 8.5 Wins: +106 (FanDuel)
• Under 8.5 Wins: -105 (Caesars)

That means the books are basically letting us take a shot for free. In fact, they’re paying us a penny to do it.

Second, these are the best odds for the Broncos to win the AFC West, the AFC and the Super Bowl.

• AFC West: +700 (FanDuel)
• AFC: +3000 (FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Super Bowl: +5000 (BetMGM)

I don’t actually like the Broncos to win their division — but if they do beat out the Chiefs and Chargers to win the AFC West doesn’t it stand to reason that they’d have a good chance (and maybe be the frontrunners) to win the AFC and possibly the Super Bowl?

With this in mind, I have two barbelled bets I’m making on the Broncos.

Broncos Under 8.5 Wins (-105, Caesars), Broncos to Win Super Bowl (+5000, BetMGM)

I don’t like the Broncos. I’m skeptical that Wilson will rebound to his pre-2022 form. I’m dubious that Joseph will maximize the talent he has on defense. And I’m uncertain that Payton will have sustained success with a non-Brees passer.

I have them projected for 7.8 wins, so I love the under. Absolutely love it. One of my favorite win total bets this year.

You can tail one of my favorite bets of the year on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up below!

But I could also be wrong. I know that I’m markedly lower on the Broncos than some other analysts are. I’m aware of their wide range of outcomes. I’m cognizant of the fact that they could be one of the few teams in the league — if everything aligns — with a top-eight QB, coach and defense. 

If they have a season that goes better than I project, they could win the AFC West — and if that happens then they’re probably one of the league’s best teams, in which case their current odds to win the AFC and Super Bowl will seem laughably long.

So I’m taking a “screw it” approach to the long tail of their upside and saying, “Instead of betting them to win the division, I’ll bet them to win everything.”

I feel dirty doing this. And I’ll feel even dirtier when the Broncos win nine games and miss the playoffs. 

If you're high on the Broncos (or simply love the value they offer), you can get them 50/1 to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and start betting today!