2023 Detroit Lions Betting Preview

The Detroit Lions started last season 1-6 and then went on an epic run to finish with a winning record and contend for a playoff spot all the way into Week 18. With that strong finish to the season, they jumped up from 3-13-1 to 9-8, from a -142 point differential to +26, and from No. 25 in offensive scoring to No. 5. 

They still had a bottom-five defense (No. 31 in scoring in 2021, No. 28 in 2022), but the organization overall took a massive step forward in HC Dan Campbell’s second season. They gained national interest thanks to their preseason appearance on Hard Knocks, they delighted traditional football fans with their blue-collar attitude, and they appealed to analytics nerds with their intelligent aggressiveness.

The 2022 season was a massive success — and then they spent two 2023 first-round picks on an undersized speed back and off-ball linebacker. On the one hand, that seems like a terrible way to use draft capital. On the other hand, that’s something you do when every other position on your roster has been addressed and you’re ready to compete. This year, the Lions expect to contend for the NFC North — and, with their infectious audaciousness, even the Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Lions preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets. 

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Lions preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Detroit Lions 2023 offseason odds

Odds as of June 25. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 25. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Detroit Lions 2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 25.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 25.

Detroit Lions general manager and head coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Brad Holmes
• Head Coach: Dan Campbell
• Team Power Rating: +2
• Team Power Ranking: No. 10
• Coach Ranking: No. 17

Holmes embodies the grit he looks for in players. After graduating from college in 2002, he worked at Enterprise Rent-A-Car while applying for a job in sports — any job, any sport. The one he found was a PR internship with the Hawks (NBA), which he used to get a PR internship with the Rams in 2003. When that ended, he convinced then-RBs coach Wilbert Montgomery to help him get a spot in the personnel department, where Holmes worked as a scout and put in his 10,000 hours of player evaluation for a decade (2003-2012) before being named director of college scouting (2013-20), a job he held until he was named Lions GM in 2021.

With the Rams, Holmes helped the organization scout and draft the players who would drive the success of the 2017-21 teams that won Super Bowl 56 and competed closely in Super Bowl 53 — DT Aaron Donald and WR Cooper Kupp, to name a couple. And when Holmes joined the Lions, the first thing he did was engineer a blockbuster trade for another one of the foundational players he scouted — QB Jared Goff (2016 No. 1 pick), who the Rams sent to the Lions (along with a 2021 third-rounder and two future first-rounders) for franchise QB Matthew Stafford. 

Most GMs in his position probably wouldn’t have made that trade. But Holmes did, and it changed the future of the franchise. In Goff, the Lions have a competent QB who is cheaper, younger, and healthier than Stafford, and with the extra draft capital, they have rebuilt their roster.

It’s hard to praise too much a GM who took a team that was 71-88-1 (0.444) the 10 years prior and “revolutionized” it into a 12-21-1 (.368) juggernaut. A current evaluation of Holmes involves more than a little projection of the future, and there’s no question that 2023 needs to be a stand-and-deliver season for the team. This is the year Holmes has been (re)building for. To this point, it looks as if Holmes has gotten a lot right, and the past two years have felt better than the previous decade, regardless of record. But the bill for expenses incurred and dividends deferred is now due.

Campbell might be able to pay that bill. An 11-year NFL TE, Campbell started 76 games (12 for the 2006-08 Lions) before transitioning to coaching, working for the 2010-15 Dolphins (intern, TEs coach, interim HC) and 2016-20 Saints (assistant HC/TEs coach) on his way back to Detroit as the Lions HC. I was highly skeptical of the hire when I heard his kneecap-biting introductory press conference in 2021, but he has impressed me since then. 

In his two years as coach, the Lions have been No. 1 in the league in fourth-down aggressiveness (per RBs Don’t Matter). Campbell was correctly quick to strip 2021 OC Anthony Lynn of playcalling during the season and fire him afterward. He made a sharp hire with 2022 OC Ben Johnson and managed to retain him for 2023. He kept his team focused and motivated last season after the 1-6 start. And his players always compete. Every game they play, the Lions think they can win. And this year maybe they actually can. 

Dan Campbell coaching record

• Years: 2
• Playoffs: 0
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 1-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.5
• Regular Season: 12-21-1 (.368)
• Playoff Record: NA
• Against the Spread: 23-11 (29.5% ROI)
• Moneyline: 12-21-1 (-5.2% ROI)
• Over/Under: 17-17 (-3.8% ROI, Over)

Lions only (not counting Campbell’s 12 games as interim HC of 2015 Dolphins). ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Detroit Lions team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

Offensive statistics (2022)

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

Defensive statistics (2022)

Regular season only.

2023 Detroit Lions offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Ben Johnson
• Offensive Playcaller: Ben Johnson
• Senior Offensive Assistant: Jim Hostler
• Passing Game Coordinator: Tanner Engstrand
• OL Coach: Hank Fraley
• QBs Coach: Mark Brunell
• Asst. HC/RBs Coach: Scottie Montgomery
• WRs Coach: Antwaan Randle El
• TEs Coach: Steve Heiden
• Notable Turnover: Senior Offensive Assistant John Morton (Broncos), Asst. HC/RBs Coach Duce Staley (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Johnson gets credit for the improvement we saw out of the Lions offense last year, as the unit leapt from No. 29 to No. 5 in DVOA in a single season without making any massive overhauls to personnel. The main change was Johnson, who was promoted to OC in 2022 after Anthony Lynn’s one year in the role.

A walk-on QB at UNC, Johnson graduated with a degree in mathematics and computer science, and that information says a lot. He was never a dominant passer, but he was always one of the smartest and hardest-working players on the field, and his intelligence and drive have helped him in the NFL. He joined the Lions in 2019 as a lowly quality control coach, and in three years he worked his way up to OC with the intermediary steps of TEs coach (2020-21) and passing game coordinator (2021). That’s impressive — but that’s also not the whole story.

Although Johnson predates Campbell with the Lions, he’s 100% a Campbell guy — because they’ve worked together before. After three years at Boston College (2009-10 assistant, 2011 TEs coach), Johnson moved to the NFL and joined the Dolphins, serving on the same staff with Campbell for four years, first as an assistant (2012), then as assistant QBs coach (2013-15), and ultimately as TEs coach (2015), taking over for Campbell in that last role when he was elevated to interim HC. 

Nov 20, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) gains yards after the catch during the first half as New York Giants linebacker Micah McFadden (41) pursues at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

After the season, Campbell went to the Saints as assistant HC/TEs coach, and Campbell stayed with the Dolphins as the lone holdover from the offensive staff, working in Miami for three more years (2016-17 assistant WRs coach, 2018 WRs coach) before he was terminated with almost the entire regime of HC Adam Gase and found sanctuary in Detroit.

When Campbell came to the Lions in 2021, it was an easy decision to keep Johnson as TEs coach, since he’s the guy Campbell probably would’ve wanted for the job anyway. And he was an obvious successor to Lynn as OC after stepping up midseason to be the passing game coordinator. As TE coaches by trade, Campbell and Johnson see the game similarly, through the lens of a position with crucial responsibilities in the run and pass games with players who bridge the gap between offensive linemen and pass catchers and who can line up in the backfield, inline, in the slot and on the perimeter. For a coach like Campbell, Johnson is the perfect OC.

Hostler is a strong replacement to Morton as Johnson’s senior advisor. After a decade in the college ranks, Hostler moved to the NFL in 2000 and since then has had 14 jobs (mainly as a coordinator or positions coach) with 10 teams. He joins the Lions with almost unrivaled vagabond experience. 

Engstrand is to Johnson what Johnson is to Campbell. After a long tenure at University of San Diego (2005-17) and short stints at Michigan (2018) and the XFL (2019-20 with the Defenders), Engstrand joined the Lions in 2020 as an assistant, advanced to TEs coach/passing game coordinator in 2022 and now has shaken off his previous positional duties so that he can focus solely on the passing game. If/when Johnson leaves to be HC of another team, he will likely want to hire Engstrand as OC — and Campbell will probably want to promote him to OC as Johnson’s replacement.

Fraley was an undrafted 11-year NFL interior lineman who started 123 games (2010-10) before becoming an OL coach. He worked with Engstrand on the 2012 USD team and then eventually made his way to the Lions in 2018 as Asst. OL coach. In 2020 he was promoted to OL coach, and Campbell wisely kept him for his staff. Under Fraley, the Lions have built a top-five OL, maybe the No. 1 overall.

Brunell was a 1993 fifth-round QB who played 19 years in the NFL, led the league in passing in 1996 and made 151 starts and three Pro Bowls. In the final years of his career, he became a backup and trusted de facto advisor to the starter — a role that Campbell saw him in when they briefly played together on the championship-winning 2009 Saints. Upon becoming Lions HC, he almost immediately gave the QBs coach job to Brunell, who had been coaching at a private high school (Episcopal School of Jacksonville) since 2013. Brunell has done an excellent job in helping Goff approach his 2017-20 form. 

Montgomery is an outside replacement for Staley, who last year oversaw a strong backfield that has almost entirely turned over this offseason. A four-year NFL WR and special teamer, Montgomery has been an offensive coach since 2006. For most of his career he has focused on the passing attack (pass game coordinator, QBs coach, WRs coach), but he did transition to the running game with the 2021-22 Colts as the RBs coach, in which capacity he launched RB Jonathan Taylor to a first-team All-Pro campaign with a league-high 2,171 yards and 20 touchdowns from scrimmage.

Randle El played nine years in the NFL as a dynamic and versatile WR and return man (4,467 yards receiving, 438 yards rushing, and six return touchdowns). After playing on the 2010 Steelers — where Montgomery was his WRs coach — Randle El retired. In 2019 he turned to coaching and worked as an assistant on the 2019-20 Buccaneers under HC Bruce Arians (his former OC with the Steelers) before joining the Lions in 2021 in his current role. 

Heiden takes over for Engstrand as the TEs coach after serving that role with the 2019-22 Cardinals. A 1999 third-round TE, Heiden played in the NFL for 11 years, the last four of which were with the 2006-09 Browns as Fraley’s teammate.

Offensive unit rankings (2023)

2023 Detroit Lions defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Aaron Glenn
• Senior Defensive Assistant: John Fox
• DL Coach: John Scott
• LBs Coach: Kelvin Sheppard
• DBs Coach: Brian Duker
• CBs Coach: Dré Bly
• Notable Turnover: DL Coach Todd Walsh (Panthers), DBs coach Aubrey Pleasant (Rams)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

Glenn was the No. 12 pick in the 1994 draft and played 15 years in the NFL with 176 starts and three Pro Bowls. He and Campbell were both regular contributors on the 2005 Cowboys, and then they reunited as coaches on the 2016-20 Saints, where Glenn oversaw one of the league’s best secondaries as DBs coach after short stints with the 2012-13 Jets (scout) and 2014-15 Browns (assistant DBs coach). 

When Campbell accepted the Lions GM job, Glenn was an easy hire as DC, and although his unit has disappointed for the past two years it approached league-average status in the second half of 2022 (No. 21 in defensive EPA in Weeks 9-18, per RBs Don’t Matter). With a young and developing front seven and veteran-infused secondary, Glenn’s defense could be significantly better in 2023. At a minimum, it probably won’t be terrible. I’m skeptical as to how much Fox (a three-time HC, longtime DC) will help as his consigliere, but at least Glenn now has a senior advisor to share the coaching load.

Scott is a longtime college coach who is making the jump to the NFL from Penn State, where was the defensive run game coordinator (2022) and DL coach (2020-22). Last year, Penn State was No. 6 in the FBS with 43 sacks. Scott should be a competent replacement for Walsh. Sheppard was an eight-year NFL LB who played on the 2014-15 Dolphins under Campbell and closed his career with the 2018 Lions. After retiring, he did a year at LSU as the director of player development before joining Campbell’s staff in 2021 as the outside LBs coach. In 2022, he assumed management of the entire LB unit.

Duker will coach safeties for a second season after joining the Lions in 2021 as a defensive assistant. His first NFL gig was as a defensive intern with the 2015 Browns (where Glenn was a DBs assistant), and after that he worked as a defensive analyst for the 2016 49ers and 2018-20 Ravens. Bly played CB in the NFL for 11 years, four of which were with the Lions (2003-06), where he made two Pro Bowls and was Campbell’s teammate for a season. In late 2018, Bly transitioned into coaching and worked at North Carolina as their CBs coach before joining the Lions this offseason. 

Defensive unit rankings (2023)

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Dave Fipp
• Assistant Special Teams Coach: Jett Modkins

Fipp has been an NFL coach since 2008 and worked with Campbell on the 2011-12 Dolphins as special teams assistant, after which he stepped up to coordinator with the Eagles (2013-20). Fipp joined the Lions in 2021 in his current role, as did Modkins, who broke into the NFL with the 2020 Broncos as an intern.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Jared Goff
• Backups: Nate Sudfeld, Adrian Martinez
• IR/PUP: Hendon Hooker (knee)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Jared Goff is a veteran pocket-passing Goldilocks QB who is “just right” enough (à la Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo) to be effective within the Lions offense even if he’s not a difference-maker. The No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft, Goff made back-to-back Pro Bowls in 2017-18 in his first two seasons with then-HC Sean McVay, and he had a bounce-back Pro Bowl campaign last year in his second season with the Lions, finishing No. 9 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected (per RBs Don’t Matter).

Sudfeld is a 2016 sixth-round career backup with zero NFL starts. He was Goff’s backup last year but should eventually be replaced by Hooker, a 25-year-old third-round rookie who dominated last year at Tennessee (3,135 yards and 27 TDs passing to two interceptions in 11 games, 2022 SEC Offensive Player of the Year, No. 5 in Heisman Voting) but will likely miss the beginning of the year because of an ACL tear he suffered near the end of the season. While Hooker is unavailable, Martinez (an undrafted rookie) could serve as the emergency No. 3 QB.

Projections as of June 26.

Running Backs

• Starter: David Montgomery
• Backups: Jahmyr Gibbs, Craig Reynolds, Jermar Jefferson
• Fullback: Jason Cabinda
• Borderline: Mohamed Ibrahim
• Notable Turnover: D’Andre Swift (Eagles), Jamaal Williams (Saints), Justin Jackson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

David Montgomery is a 224-pound. lead back with three-down ability and a three-year $18M contract. With 1,000-plus yards and 25-plus receptions in each of his four NFL seasons (2019-22 Bears), Montgomery is a sharp offseason acquisition as the Williams replacement and a decent bet to lead the backfield in snaps and opportunities, even though Gibbs will likely be the more dynamic and impactful of the two players. 

A 21-year-old rookie selected No. 12 overall, Gibbs is probably too small (5-foot-9 and 199 pounds) to be a volume back, but he has the athleticism (4.36-second 40-yard dash) and all-around skill set (1,370 yards and 10 touchdowns from scrimmage, 44-444-3 receiving last year at Alabama) to be an immediate game-breaking producer. Not to give Lions fans traumatic flashbacks, but Gibbs is essentially a second bite at the Jahvid Best apple. He will replace the banished Swift as the explosive backfield element in the offense.

Reynolds is a veteran depth back with 238 snaps and 500 scrimmage yards on surprising efficiency (4.3 yards per carry, 9.3 yards per target) over the past two years. He’s a livable No. 3 RB. Jefferson is a 2021 seventh-rounder who flashed in college (3,222 yards, 29 touchdowns in 27 games) but lived on the sideline as a rookie and practice squad last year. 

Without Jackson, the Lions could bump Jefferson up to the active roster and use him on special teams, although he could lose a roster spot to Ibrahim, an undrafted rookie who balled out last year (1,715 yards, 20 touchdowns). Cabinda is a former try-hard LB who started three games on defense for the Raiders as an undrafted rookie in 2018 and then joined the Lions in 2019 and converted to FB. He has been the team’s main FB for the past three years. Cabinda has never had a PFF run-blocking grade of even 60, but he’s likely to make the 2023 roster as there’s not another FB on the roster to take his spot — unless you count the undrafted rookie LB.

Projections as of June 26.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds
• WR Backups: Kalif Raymond, Tom Kennedy
• TE Starter: Sam LaPorta
• TE Backups: Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra
• Suspended: WR Jameson Williams (Weeks 1-6)
• Borderline: WRs Trinity Benson and Antoine Green, TE James Mitchell
• Notable Turnover: WRs D.J. Chark (Panthers) and Quintez Cephus (Free Agent), TE T.J. Hockenson (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

St. Brown is a 2021 fourth-rounder who has massively out-punted his draft capital coverage with 196-2,073-11 receiving and 16-156-1 rushing through two seasons. A slot man who can get open seemingly at will (74.0% career catch rate), he’s a vastly underappreciated No. 1 WR who could be even better in his third year. 

Jones is a 33-year-old veteran who previously had a half-decade stint with the Lions (2016-20) and has returned after two years with the Jaguars. Although he was respectably the No. 1 WR on the team in 2020 (76-978-9 receiving), Jones has looked like a shell of his field-stretching self since leaving (9.0 yards per target with Lions, 6.8 afterwards). He could have a bounceback season with a few Chark-like boom performances, but most weeks he’s likely to bust, especially once Williams returns to action. 

A 2022 first-rounder who missed most of his rookie year to an ACL tear, Williams is suspended Weeks 1-6 for violating the league’s gambling policy. His 2021 first-team All-American campaign (79-1,572-15 receiving) is growing increasingly faint in the distance.

In his early-season absence, Williams will be represented by the law firm of Reynolds & Raymond, who will likely rotate as the No. 3 WR. Reynolds is an acceptably average rotational perimeter receiver whom Holmes drafted with the Rams in 2017 and signed to the Lions in 2021. With the team, he has averaged 8.3 yards per target. Raymond is a small-but-shifty veteran journeyman who has settled in with the Lions over the past two years. Capable of playing all three WR spots, he has an outstanding career mark of 9.5 yards per target and is a strong return man. 

Kennedy is an undrafted depth receiver who has been with the Lions since his 2019 rookie season. He had a career-high 227 snaps and 141 yards receiving last year, but he could lose his roster spot to Benson (a veteran with 270 snaps with the team in 2021 but just 13 in 2022) or Green (a seventh-round rookie with a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 199 pounds).

LaPorta is a second-round rookie who dominated at Iowa as the No. 1 receiver (111-1,327-4 receiving in 2021-22) and demolished the combine (4.59-second 40-yard dash, 6.91-second three-cone at 6-foot-3 and 245 pounds). His first-year contributions could be limited, but LaPorta has the long-term potential to be better than Hockenson. 

Wright is an undrafted inline TE who has been with the team since his 2021 rookie year. Over the past two seasons, he has played 896 snaps and maximized his 41 targets with a 73.2% catch rate, 8.1 yards per target and six touchdowns. Like Wright, Zylstra is an undrafted player who has been with the Lions since his 2021 rookie season. Unlike Wright, he hasn’t done much for the team (309 snaps, 94 yards) — although the dude was a goal-line vulture in 2022 with four touchdowns on 15 targets. Zylstra could lose his roster spot to Mitchell, a 2022 fifth-rounder who played little last year but tantalized with 11-113-1 receiving on 11 targets.

Projections as of June 26.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai, RT Penei Sewell
• Backups: OT Matt Nelson, G/C Graham Glasgow, OL Colby Sorsdal, G Logan Stenberg
• Borderline: T/G Germain Ifedi, G Kayode Awosika
• Notable Turnover: RG Rvan Brown (Seahawks), G Dan Skipper (Free Agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Decker is an undecorated franchise blindside protector who has been with the Lions for all seven years of his career and has started every game he has played. A strong pass-blocker and above-average run-blocker, Decker is the tenured leader of maybe the NFL’s best OL. 

Jackson is a 2020 third-rounder who started Week 1 as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl in 2021. Ragnow is a homegrown second-contract pivot with 65 starts, two Pro Bowls and PFF run-blocking grades of at least 78 in every year since his 2019 second season. 

Vaitai missed 2022 with a back injury but is expected to return to RG, where he made 25 nondescript starts for the 2020-21 Lions after opening his career with the Eagles (2016-19). Sewell was the No. 7 pick of the 2021 draft and has started 33 games (25 at RT, 8 at LT as an injury fill-in for Decker). He made the Pro Bowl last year and is the likely long-term heir to Decker’s LT throne.

Nelson is an undrafted swing tackle who has been with the Lions since his 2019 rookie season. He has made 12 starts at RT over the past three years but seemingly regressed each campaign and has never had a PFF grade of even 60. He’s at risk of losing his roster spot to Ifedi — a right-side specialist former first-rounder who made 83 combined RT/RG starts for the 2016-19 Seahawks and 2020-21 Bears before transitioning to backup for the 2022 Falcons. 

Glasgow is a 2016 third-rounder who opened his career with the Lions, for whom he made 27 starts at C, 18 at LG and 14 at RG before playing three years with the Broncos. An above-average blocker, he’s an ideal replacement to Brown and Skipper as the team’s top interior backup — and if he has a strong camp he might even push for Vaitai’s starting spot. 

Colby Sorsdal is a small-school fifth-round rookie who started five years at RT but might need to kick inside in the NFL. Stenberg is a 2020 fourth-rounder who did nothing in his first two seasons and then made four subpar RG starts last year (12 QB pressures on 128 opportunities). He could lose his spot to the undrafted third-year Awosika, who made two subpar RG starts for the Lions in 2022 — but his weren’t as bad as Stenberg’s (six pressures on 89 opportunities).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Aidan Hutchinson, Charles Harris
• EDGE Backups: John Cominsky, Romeo Okwara, Josh Paschal, James Houston, Julian Okwara
• DT Starters: Alim McNeill, Isaiah Buggs
• DT Backups: Brodric Martin, Levi Onwuzurike
• Borderline: DTs Benito Jones & Christian Covington
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Austin Bryant (49ers), DT Michael Brockers (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Hutchinson headlines a deep edge group long on potential. The No. 2 pick of the 2022 draft, he finished No. 2 last year in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting with 9.5 sacks, 52 tackles and three interceptions. 

Harris is a 2017 first-rounder who never lived up to his draft capital for the Dolphins and didn’t get a fifth-year option from the Falcons after they traded for him, but he had a career-high eight sacks with the 2021 Lions in his first year with the team. He played just six games last year because of injury but is an acceptable veteran presence opposite Hutchinson (although he probably is better suited to a rotational role farther down the depth chart). 

Cominsky is a 2019 fourth-rounder who played alongside Harris on the 2020 Falcons as an interior defender. After the Falcons released him in 2022, he caught on with the Lions as a big-bodied edge and gave them a much-needed 554 snaps of league-average play. Romeo Okwara missed most of 2021-22 with a torn Achilles, but he returned to action at the end of last year and has been a fixture of the Lions DL since joining the team in 2018. In his last full campaign (2020), he easily led the team with 61 QB pressures and 10 sacks. 

Paschal is a 2022 second-rounder with near-elite athleticism (4.77-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 268 pounds). He underwhelmed as a rookie pass rusher and run defender but has the talent to be a plus rotational player. Houston is a 2022 sixth-rounder whose offball size (6-foot-1 and 245 pounds) makes him vulnerable in run defense (56.6 PFF grade) — but he displayed near-elite situational edge rushing skills as a rookie with 17 pressures and eight sacks on just 92 pass snaps. 

Julian Okwara (Romeo’s brother) is an upside 2020 third-rounder who has struggled with year-to-year availability and consistency. He was on IR most of his rookie year, flashed in 2021 (five sacks), and then missed Weeks 13-18 last year after playing poorly (46.7 PFF grade).

McNeill is a 2021 third-rounder who waffles against the run but contributed as a pass rusher (29 pressures) in his second season. Buggs is a 2019 sixth-rounder who is an average-at-worst pass rusher but a libel-inducing run defender. After three years with the Steelers, he joined the Lions last offseason and gave the team a career-high 752 snaps as a warm body. 

Martin is a third-round rookie with the size (6-foot-5 and 337 pounds) to line up at nose and demand double teams. Onwuzurike is a 2021 second-rounder who played poorly as a rookie (43.2 PFF grade) and not at all last year because of a back injury that required surgery. If he’s not ready to open the season, the Lions could put him on PUP and give a roster spot to Jones (309 subpar snaps for the team last year) or Covington (poor play for 2020 Bengals and 2021-22 Chargers, strong play for 2016-18 Texans and 2019 Cowboys).  

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone
• Backups: Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes
• Borderline: Jalen Reeves-Maybin
• Notable Turnover: Chris Board (Patriots)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

Campbell is the No. 18 pick in the 2023 draft. As a junior, he led the FBS with 143 tackles. As a senior, he was a unanimous first-team All-American and winner of the Butkus Award (for the top LB in college football) and the Campbell Trophy (“Academic Heisman,” for the player with the best combination of academics, community service, and on-field performance). As a prospect, he displayed near-elite athleticism at the combine (4.65-second 40-yard dash, 6.74-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 249 pounds). He’s a strong culture fit with All-Pro potential. 

Anzalone is an underperforming second-contract veteran whose poor play since joining the team in 2021 (59.2 PFF grade last year, 35.4 the prior year) is probably why the Lions drafted Campbell.

Rodriguez is a 2022 sixth-rounder who played admirably last year as a rookie (58 tackles on 611 snaps) but is much better as the No. 3 LB. Barnes is a run-thumping 2021 fourth-rounder who can’t cover a casserole. Reeves-Maybin is a 2017 fourth-rounder who gave the Lions five subpar seasons to open his career before going to Houston and endowing the 2022 Texans with the worst season of his career. He’s now back with the Lions, and maybe he’ll make the roster if Barnes is bad in camp or if the team cuts Anzalone to make space for the younger LBs, but I doubt he’ll make the roster.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
• CB Backups: Jerry Jacobs, Will Harris, Chase Lucas
• S Starters: Tracy Walker, Kerby Joseph
• S Backups: Brian Branch, Ifeatu Melifonwu
• Notable Turnover: CBs Jeffrey Okudah (Falcons), Mike Hughes (Falcons), Amani Oruwariye (Giants) and A.J. Parker (49ers), SS DeShon Elliott (Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Sutton is the three-year $33M headliner of the team’s rebuilt CB unit. For the first few years of his career, Sutton served as a No. 4 CB with inside/outside utility, but in 2020 he pushed his way into the starting lineup and was the No. 1 perimeter corner for the 2021-22 Steelers. Last year, he held pass catchers to a career-low 50.7% catch rate. 

Moseley went undrafted in 2018, but he out-battled the higher-drafted Ahkello Witherspoon for playing time in 2019-20 and was a full-time starter in 2021-22 before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Week 5 and leaving the 49ers in free agency. Moseley has a good chance to be active to open the year based on the timing of his injury, and I bet he’ll win the starting job: In his one full season as a starter (2021), he allowed only 6.3 yards per target. 

Gardner-Johnson is a 2019 fourth-rounder whose attitude outpaces his ability. A slot corner for the 2019-21 Saints, he shifted to safety for the 2022 Eagles, so he offers positional versatility, but I expect him to play as a nickel for the Lions. While he’s a strong blitzer (34 pressures on 126 career pass rushes), he has never had a PFF coverage grade of 70. Sutton, Moseley, and Gardner-Johnson are an unquestionable upgrade over last year’s Week 1 starters (Okudah, Oruwariye, and Hughes) — but they might need significant time to establish chemistry. We shouldn’t automatically assume they will be a power trio.

Jacobs is an undrafted corner who has played 1,077 snaps for the Lions since his 2021 rookie year. He was solid with 6.8 yards per target last year and could push for Moseley’s job this year. Harris is a 2019 third-rounder who opened his career as a safety but shifted to slot corner in 2021 and can also play on the perimeter. He has made 27 starts for the Lions over the past two years and had a career-high 66.9 PFF coverage grade in 2022. If the Lions choose to play Gardner-Johnson as more of a traditional safety, Harris will likely man the slot. Chase Lucas is a 2022 seventh-rounder who can play inside and outside.

Walker is a homegrown second-contract safety who can play in the box and deep based on team need. An above-average cover man, he missed most of 2022 with an Achilles tear, but I expect him to be back for Week 1 and to shift to SS as the Elliott replacement to accommodate Joseph, who last year started 13 games at FS after Walker’s injury. 

A 2022 third-rounder, Joseph was a league-average pass defender as a rookie — but he could be pushed into the No. 3 S role if the Lions prefer second-round rookie Branch, who played the “star”/Minkah Fitzpatrick role at Alabama last year and can line up across the formation. Melifonwu is a 2021 third-rounder who has the size (6-foot-3 and 212 pounds) and skill set to play both box safety and perimeter corner.

Specialists

• Kicker: Riley Patterson
• Punter: Jack Fox
• Holder: Jack Fox
• Long Snapper: Jake McQuaide
• Kick Returner: Jahmyr Gibbs
• Punt Returner: Kalif Raymond
• Borderline: K Michael Badgley, LS Scott Daly
• Notable Turnover: KR Justin Jackson

Patterson closed his 2021 rookie season on the Lions as a strong injury fill-in for Austin Seibert, who beat him out in a 2022 camp battle and then was replaced by Badgley after going 1-of-3 in Week 3. Upon being cut, Patterson signed with the Jaguars and had a good year — but then they signed the long-legged Brandon McManus this offseason and traded Patterson back to the Lions, who will have Patterson and Badgley compete in camp. 

While Badgley is the only one of the two with guaranteed money on his contract ($350,000), I doubt the Lions would’ve traded a pick (albeit a conditional 2026 seventh-rounder) to get Patterson in May after signing Badgley in March if they didn’t think Patterson was likely to win the job. Neither one has great distance, but Patterson has easily had more accuracy throughout his career (87.8% vs. 81.7%).

Fox has been with the Lions since 2019 (practice squad) and was a second-team All-Pro in 2020, when he made his NFL debut. He’s No. 2 at his position in salary and has a career average of 49.0 yards per punt. McQuaide missed most of last year with the Cowboys because of a triceps tear, but he has been long snapping in the NFL since 2011 and is a two-time Pro Bowler. He should be able to beat out the incumbent Daly (who has played only on the 2021-22 Lions). Gibbs is an above-average kick returner (23.9 yards per return, 1 TD in college) who could help pay off his first-round draft capital by contributing outside of the offense. Raymond was a second-team All-Pro punt returner last year (13.2 yards per return, 1 TD).

Schedule Analysis

Here are my notes on the Lions’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 11
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-3
• Opponents: at KC, vs. SEA, vs. ATL

The Lions have the 11th-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents thanks to a relatively weak division and matchups with the NFC South. But there are parts of their schedule that should be challenging. For instance, they have four-of-five away near the end of the season (Weeks 13-17). If they struggle in that stretch, they could enter Week 18 needing a win to make the postseason.

But it’s the opening stretch that most has my attention. They kick off the season for the entire NFL by going on the road to play the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. They will be sizable underdogs. In Week 2, they host the Seahawks, who made the postseason last year. And then in Week 3 they stay at home and play the Falcons, who will be significant underdogs but who also match up well (No. 4 rush offense vs. No. 27 rush defense by 2022 EPA).

If the Lions somehow go 3-0 to open the season, that would be amazing. If they go 2-1, great. If 1-2, fine. If 0-3, terrible — because they still have eight road games remaining and three-of-four away immediately after Week 3… and there’s a clear, imaginable path to 0-3.

The last thing the Lions want is a poor start to the year after they opened 1-6 in 2022. Now imagine they go 0-3, and the very next game they play is on the road at Lambeau Field against the divisional rival Packers on Thursday Night Football.

How much pressure would they feel not to start 0-4?

The Lions probably won’t start 0-3. But they could, and if they do they might struggle to dig themselves out of that kind of hole again this year.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Lions.

• Campbell reveals his awakened caveman tendencies when he decides to go for it in way too many suboptimal fourth-down situations, repeatedly justifying his actions by saying the phrase, “Gotta be aggressive,” which becomes a viral social media meme. 
• Glenn oversees a defense that only marginally improves.
• Goff regresses to his 2020-21 form.
• Montgomery plays like he just got paid, and Gibbs plays like a 199-pound. back.
• Jones has no juice left in his legs, and Williams fails to crack the starting lineup after returning from suspension.
• LaPorta does what most rookie TEs do.
• Vaitai misses the 2023 season because of a setback, and the RG spot becomes an ever-exploitable weak link in an otherwise strong chain.
• The defensive line continues to be a sieve against the run.
• Jack Campbell plays like an ordinary LB, and Anzalone has the worst year of his career.
• Sutton is merely average, Moseley misses half the year because of knee issues and Gardner-Johnson moves to LB as the team experiments with personnel groupings.
• Badgley wins the starting job and is cut in Week 4.
• The Lions miss the playoffs at 6-11, Glenn “resigns,” Johnson leaves for an HC opportunity, Engstrand follows Johnson to be his OC and Campbell struggles to fill the OC and DC vacancies before ultimately settling on two former (and uninspiring) coaching colleagues — Joe Philbin (2012-15 Dolphins HC) and Mike Nolan (2017-19 Saints LBs coach).

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Lions.

• Campbell successfully straddles the line between absurd and advantageous with his fourth-down decisions, and “Gotta be aggressive” becomes a rallying cry for the Lions fanbase.
• Glenn coaches his defense to a No. 12 finish in scoring.
• Goff sets a new career high passing yardage.
• Montgomery has his fifth consecutive season of 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and leads the league in touchdowns rushing while Gibbs has 800 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• Jones has a bounceback campaign with 9.0 yards per target, and Williams balls out for 1,000 yards receiving in 11 games.
• LaPorta plays like the next great Iowa TE.
• Vaitai is healthy to start the year, and the Lions OL holds opponents to a league-low 20 sacks.
• The defensive line spearheads an overall pass-rushing effort that finishes top-five with 50 sacks.
• Jack Campbell wins Defensive Player of the Year with 150 tackles and four interceptions, and Anzalone is rendered irrelevant.
• Sutton is his steady self, Moseley plays the entire year and Gardner-Johnson energizes the entire defense with his willingness to throw his body around and antagonize opposing star players. The three of them form a cohesive unit almost immediately, and they start calling themselves “Grand Funk” in honor of the power trio from Flint, Michigan.
• Patterson wins the starting job and manages to hit over 90% of his attempts — just as he did in 2021.
• Lions go 13-4 to win the division and No. 2 seed, make “We’re an American Band” their theme song heading into the playoffs (à la “Gloria” with the 2018-19 NHL Blues), dominate the NFC North rival Vikings on Super Wild Card Weekend, upset the QB-wounded 49ers in the Divisional Round, host and humiliate the Cowboys in the NFC Championship, and then beat the Dolphins by seven points in the highest-scoring Super Bowl ever thanks to a 39-yard catch-and-run score by LaPorta on fourth-and-1 with 2:12 left and then a defensive stand that ends with Jack Campbell forcing a fumble recovered by Hutchinson.

In-season angles

I view the Lions as a strong “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage in division and at home.

• Campbell in Division: 10-2 ATS (59.3% ROI)
• Campbell in Division: 7-5 ML (44.2% ROI)
• Campbell at Home: 13-4 ATS (47.0% ROI)
• Campbell at Home: 8-9 ML (27.0% ROI)

Conversely, if there were ever an ideal time to bet against the Lions, it would likely be outside division and on the road, but I would bet it on the moneyline, not the spread — because there’s a difference between winning and covering in terms of how teams perform. In general, Campbell’s Lions have been way better at covering (29.5% ROI) than winning (-5.2% ROI) relative to market expectations. That makes sense to me, given the kind of “never say die” guy Campbell is, and I expect that to continue.

• Campbell Outside Division: 5-16-1 ML (10.8% ROI for faders)
• Campbell on Road: 4-12-1 ML (3.1% ROI for faders)

But, really, I’m not overly desirous to bet against the Lions this year.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking to the season-long player prop market.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 590.5 Yards Rushing (-115) (Caesars)

I rarely bet season-long player overs. If I’m bullish on a guy relative to the market and that market requires me to lock up money for months, then I usually want to exploit my perceived edge in as maximal of a way as possible. I shoot for upside with an MVP bet or Rookie of the Year bet or something like that.

But this number for Gibbs is so off that I can’t help but invest.

I have him projected for 681.7 yards rushing, and I think I’m being at least a little conservative on both the volume (161.2 attempts) and the efficiency (4.23 yards per carry).

Gibbs is small, but he has first-round draft capital and is running behind a top-three offensive line in a top-eight offense.

If he hits the under, I doubt he’ll fall short by much — but if he hits the over there's a lot of room for him to smash.

You can tail the over on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house. All you have to do is sign up below and start betting today!