One of the best parts about NFL betting is the vast number of markets to choose from. You can obviously bet on all of the games throughout the regular season and playoffs, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. There are tons of team futures to consider—including win total over/unders, division winners, and who will will the Super Bowl—but there are also plenty of player futures to sink your teeth into as well.
DraftKings Sportsbook recently released their player totals markets, which allow you to bet on whether certain players will finish over or under a listed total. I tend to focus on yardage because it’s a bit easier to predict, but you can also wager on things like passing touchdowns, rushing/receiving touchdowns, and sacks.
All of the numbers can feel a bit overwhelming, but fortunately, we have an awesome projections tool available for free at Fantasy Life. Using that tool, I compared our projections to the lines that were released on DraftKings Sportsbook to find out which yardage totals were offering the most value.
Let’s take a look at some of the top candidates.
Lamar Jackson under 3625.5 passing yards (-125)
I think Jackson is poised for a big bounce-back season. He actually started the year hot in 2022-23, but injuries to himself and his receiving corps took a toll on his production.
After Rashod Bateman got hurt in Week 4, Jackson was left with arguably the worst group of receivers in football. He was throwing to guys like Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson for most of the season, and while he still had Mark Andrews at tight end, that’s simply not enough talent for the modern game. You need to be able to throw the ball in 2023-24, and giving your quarterback some weapons to work with is a great start.
Dec 4, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) drops back to pass during the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Fortunately, the Ravens did address the position in the offseason. It started with signing Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency, and they doubled down by drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. Adding those two to a healthy Bateman gives Jackson much more to work with outside than he had last year.
Still, I wouldn’t expect Jackson to all of a sudden turn into Patrick Mahomes.
Even during Jackson’s MVP campaign in 2019-20, he still finished with just 3,127 passing yards. That’s easily the top mark of his career, and it’s still approximately 500 fewer yards than his current yardage total on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Additionally, Jackson isn’t exactly a bastion of health.
He’s never played more than 15 games in a season, including just 12 last year. Predicting injuries isn’t easy, but Jackson’s play style makes him more susceptible to injury than most. Running is a huge part of his game, which is going to open him up to more hits than the average quarterback.
Add it all up, and the under on Jackson’s passing total stands out as one of the best bets in our projections. We have him at closer to 3,275, and while that would still represent a new career high, it leaves him well short of the current number on DraftKings.
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Anthony Richardson over 2600.5 passing yards (-115)
Let’s go from one dual-threat quarterback to another. Richardson was the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, with the Colts choosing to roll the dice on his tantalizing skill set. Richardson leaves a lot to be desired as a passer—especially when it comes to experience—but he is quite possibly the most athletic quarterback to ever enter the NFL.
The questions about his arm and NFL readiness are the main reasons why this number is so low. That said, the Colts seem committed to getting him on the field early in his rookie season, and him earning the job for Week 1 is not out of the question.
He’s split the first-team reps with Gardner Minshew during OTAs, and team owner Jim Irsay has told reporters he didn’t draft Richardson to have him sit on the sidelines:
If Richardson does start early on as a rookie, getting to 2601 passing yards shouldn’t be all that difficult. Kenny Pickett got to 2404 as a rookie despite starting just 12 games.
There were 29 separate quarterbacks who averaged more than 180 passing yards per game last season, and Richardson would need roughly 14.5 games to hit the over on 2600 at that rate. That gives him a bit of flexibility even if he doesn’t earn the job right out of the gate.
We currently have Richardson projected for more than 2800 passing yards, making him the best over target in this market.
A.J. Dillon under 775.5 rushing yards (-125)
There isn’t quite as much value with the rushing yard totals on the surface, but Dillon stands out as a clear outlier.
Targeting unders on running backs also makes more sense from a pure injury standpoint. No other skill-position players take the same kind of beating, making them more susceptible to missed games. A lot of the rushing totals may look good on the surface, but you always have to factor in the potential for injury.
Dillon is someone who is a strong target regardless of the injury risk. He played a full 17 games last season and still finished with just 770 yards. That was despite playing with a future Hall of Famer at quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, and it’s possible that the offense takes a step backward with Jordan Love at QB.
Dillon is also part of a committee backfield with Aaron Jones, and Jones has established himself as the clear better option of the duo. There is simply nothing on a football field that Dillon does better than Jones.
Jones averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season, while Dillon was at 4.1. Jones is the superior pass-catcher of the duo, and he finished as the No. 6 running back per Pro Football Focus. He’s also the player that the team is committed to from a financial standpoint, so it’s certainly possible that Dillon's role is smaller than it was last year.
Nov 13, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (28) during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Jones has also been one of the more durable running backs in football.
Like Dillon, he played in all 17 games last season, and he missed just one game due to injury the year prior. He missed two games in 2020 and zero games in 2019, and while that doesn’t guarantee he’ll stay healthy in the upcoming season, it does suggest he’s not as big an injury risk as some of the other top runners in football.
Our projections currently put Dillon at around 675 yards for the year, putting him roughly 100 behind his current total on DraftKings.
J.K. Dobbins over 800.5 rushing yards (-120)
Dobbins doesn’t stand out as the best pure value from an over standpoint. There are a handful of players who are projected to beat their total by a wider figure, including Rachaad White, Derrick Henry, and Jonathan Taylor.
That said, I have fewer concerns with Dobbins than with those other options.
For starters, Dobbins has been one of the most efficient runners in football since entering the league three years ago. He averaged 6.0 yards per attempt as a rookie, and he followed that up with 5.7 yards per attempt last season.
His 2022-23 production was slightly down, but he was recovering from a serious injury that caused him to miss all of 2021-22. He appeared to be back to full strength after returning for a four-game stretch late in the year, averaging 6.96 yards per carry in those contests. He followed that up with 62 yards on 13 carries in the postseason, despite playing without Jackson at quarterback in any of them.
Tyler Huntley may be a capable backup, but there’s no doubt that he’s worse than Jackson at full strength. If Dobbins can dominate like that without his superstar quarterback, the sky is the limit with Jackson back in the fold.
Dobbins’s short season also results in a very reasonable total of 800.5 yards. That gives him plenty of flexibility from an injury standpoint. While guys like Henry and Taylor can’t afford to miss more than a game or two and still hit their over, Dobbins is capable of getting to 801 yards in as little as nine or 10 games.
Hopefully, it won’t come to that, but I think Dobbins has plenty of upside as the lead-back for one of the best rushing attacks in football.
Robert Woods under 580.5 receiving yards (-120)
Woods changed locations in the offseason, moving from one disappointing AFC South franchise to another. After spending last season with the Titans, he will presumably step in as the No. 1 receiver for C.J. Stroud in Houston. Woods has previously put together some quality campaigns, so this number might feel low on the surface.
Still, there are major concerns about whether or not Woods has anything left in the tank.
He just turned 31 years old, and he’s coming off easily the worst season of his career. He played in all 17 games for the Titans and faced minimal target competition, especially with rookie Treylon Burks struggling to stay on the field. Still, Woods finished with just 53 catches for 527 yards.
All of his efficiency metrics were also down. He averaged the lowest yards per catch of his career at 9.9, while his 58.2% catch rate was his worst mark since his rookie season. He also posted a 0.74 RACR (receiver air conversion ratio), which is nothing to write home about.
There’s no denying that Woods’s quarterback play was suboptimal last year, but there’s no guarantee it’s much better in 2023. He’ll be playing with another rookie quarterback, and while Stroud has plenty of potential, he wouldn’t be the first quarterback to struggle to adapt to the NFL. Ohio State quarterbacks in particular have historically struggled with the transition.
Dec 11, 2022; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver Robert Woods (2) celebrates after a first down catch during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
His competition also might be a bit stiffer than it looks on paper. John Metchie should be back after sitting out his rookie season, and he was a second-round pick. The team also drafted two additional receivers in 2023, including Tank Dell in the third round, while Nico Collins remains in the picture.
With the team clearly rebuilding, it’s possible that the Texans embrace the youth movement if things fail to come together quickly. We saw that exact scenario play out with Brandin Cooks last season, and he’s a way better player than Woods.
We currently have Woods projected for less than 475 receiving yards, making him an excellent fade candidate at his current number.
Chris Godwin over 775.5 receiving yards (-130)
The Buccaneers’ offense will have a completely different look next season without Tom Brady under center. They’ll hand the reigns to either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, and it’s hard to imagine either of them filling the shoes of the GOAT.
That said, it’s important to remember that the GOAT wasn’t exactly in his prime last season. He did lead the league in both attempts and completions, but he turned in his worst adjusted yards per attempt since 2002-03. There were players drafted this year who weren’t even alive at that point.
The Bucs’ inefficient offense took a toll on all of their pass-catchers, and Godwin was no exception. He managed just 9.8 yards per reception and 7.2 yards per target, both of which were the worst marks of his career. He still finished with more than 1,000 receiving yards, but he did it more through volume than anything else.
While Godwin will likely see a reduction in volume this season, it’s possible that his efficiency returns to normal. Brady got rid of the ball quicker than any quarterback in the league last season, and he was also near the bottom of the pack in intended air yards per attempt.
I’m not saying that the Buccaneers will get better quarterback play next season, but they might at least get some more aggression.
Before last season, Godwin was considered a premier NFL receiver. He averaged 13.6 yards per reception and 9.6 yards per target, so he’s capable of doing damage further downfield. Either way, he’s had at least 840 receiving yards in five straight seasons, only failing to to eclipse that threshold in his rookie campaign.
We don’t expect the streak to come to an end in 2023-24, with Godwin currently projected for closer to 950 receiving yards. He’s a great player to target with an over.
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