2023 Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

Last year, the Green Bay Packers hoped to win the Super Bowl. They didn’t even have a winning season, going 8-9 and missing the playoffs thanks to a Week 18 loss at home in primetime to the Lions.

A couple of months and one darkness retreat later, they were informed by franchise QB Aaron Rodgers that he wanted to be traded, so the team indulged his desires, sent him to the Jets, and commenced with the Jordan Love era three years after making him a Day 1 pick.

This year, the Packers have more modest goals. It would be nice if they can have a winning record, make the playoffs, win the NFC North, and see how far they can advance in the postseason. After the bitterness of last season, that would be lovely. But what matters most to the Packers in 2023 is finding out whether the guy they went out of their way to alienate Rodgers for is actually worthy of carrying his mantle as the team’s next franchise QB.

In this 2023 Packers preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Packers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 5. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 5. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 5.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 5.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 5.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Brian Gutekunst
• Head Coach: Matt LaFleur
• Team Power Rating: -3.0
• Team Power Ranking: No. 24
• Coach Ranking: No. 12

Gutekunst is a Midwest guy. His father (John) was the University of Minnesota HC. Brian played college ball at Wisconsin-La Crosse as a safety, and after he stopped because of a shoulder injury he stayed on the team for his final two seasons as an assistant and was an LBs coach for the team’s undefeated Division III championship run in 1995.

After graduating, he served as a scouting intern for the Packers in 1997, and after a one-year stint with the Chiefs as a scouting assistant he returned to the Packers at the end of 1998 and has been with the organization ever since, gradually working his way up from college scout (1998-2011) and director of college scouting (2012-15) to director of player personnel (2016-17) and finally GM (since 2018). He’s a fantastic cultural fit for the organization.

For the past decade in his various roles, Gutekunst has been exceptional at helping the team find starters and meaningful contributors on Day 3 of the draft:

• LT David Bakhtiari (2013)
• S Micah Hyde (2013)
• C Corey Linsley (2014)
• LBs Jake Ryan (2015) and Blake Martinez (2016)
• DL Dean Lowry (2016)
• RBs Aaron Jones (2017) and Jamaal Williams (2017)
• WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2018) and Equanimeous St. Brown (2018), Romeo Doubs (2022)
• P J.K. Scott (2018)
• DL Kingsley Keke (2019)
• OGs Jon Runyan (2020) and Royce Newman (2021)
• RT Zach Tom (2022)
• EDGE Kingsley Enagbare (2022)

Few of these guys are stars, but all of them have delivered considerable snaps to the team and played a part in its success. Gutekunst has an eye for overlooked talent.

And Gutekunst has — theoretically — done well with his Day 1 picks. At least he seems not to have had any massive misses.

• 2018: CB Jaire Alexander
• 2019: EDGE Rashan Gary, S Darnell Savage
• 2020: QB Jordan Love
• 2021: CB Eric Stokes
• 2022: LB Quay Walker, DT Devonte Wyatt
• 2023: EDGE Lukas Van Ness

But there’s a difference between not striking out and hitting home runs. Over the past six years, Gutekunst has invested 100% of his Round 1 draft capital into defensive players and QB Aaron Rodgers’ replacement… which really puts Rodgers’ public frustration with the organization over the past few seasons into perspective, especially since the Packers defense has performed at a level that is less than the sum of its parts.

In the modern NFL, defense doesn’t matter as much as offense — but the Packers have clearly prioritized the defense over the past half decade. And it might not be a coincidence that the GM who played safety and then coached LBs builds his team as if the only way to win is drafting as many Round 1 defenders as possible. In this regard, Gutekunst might be his own enemy.

So, practically, Gutekunst has probably misplayed his hand by putting so many chips on defense — and, psychologically, his Round 1 selections had ramifications he probably didn’t intend or expect: He alienated Rodgers, which in turn caused an unsettled environment for All-Pro WR Davante Adams, who requested and was granted a trade last offseason and whose absence contributed to the team’s substandard 2023 performance.

A GM’s first job is not to build a team. It’s not to evaluate talent. It’s not to sign players to franchise-friendly contracts. A GM’s first job — and only job — is to get a Hall of Fame QB and then keep him (and hopefully keep him happy). That’s it. 

Football is not unlike Quidditch, where the team with the best seeker wins a supermajority of the time. In football, whoever has the better QB usually wins. And in the NFL, Hall of Fame QBs — not GMs — win Super Bowls.

Gutekunst inherited Rodgers, so he doesn’t get much credit for having him in the first place… and then he lost him. And he lost him because he blatantly drafted a QB to replace him.

That was an egregious error apparent to many at the time.

If you’re going to take a QB in Round 1 while already in possession of a Hall of Fame QB, the guy you draft must be an absolute and obvious steal at his draft spot — someone you can’t help but select because it would be irresponsible and fireable for you not to. The guy must be worth the risk. Love wasn’t that kind of player. In the 2020 draft, he wasn’t a no-doubt Round 1 guy. He was on the borderline.

Additionally, the guy must fall to you in the draft (as Rodgers did with the Packers in 2005). You can’t trade up for him. Otherwise, you risk alienating your Hall of Fame QB. If a guy falls to you, you have the ability to say to the media and to your Hall of Fame QB, “We’re always going to take the best player available on our board, regardless of position, regardless of who we already have on the roster, and that’s what we did, because we believe that’s the best way for us to build our team.”

That gives you a chance of maintaining your relationship with your starting QB, and it allows him to keep his dignity, his mojo and his standing in the locker room.

But the Packers traded up from No. 30 to No. 26 to get Love, which signaled to everyone — including Rodgers — that they actively wanted Love. And it implied that they didn’t value Rodgers enough to bypass the risk of alienating him.

And, finally, the selection of Love signaled to Rodgers that — even though the team went 13-3 the year prior in HC Matt LaFleur’s first season with the organization — the Packers would not do everything they could to maximize their odds of winning a championship with him as the starter.

If you’re Gutekunst and you want to do everything you can to win a Super Bowl with Rodgers, the literal last thing you do is draft a QB in Round 1. Rather, you give him a WR or an OT. You give him someone who will make his job easier and be on the field for almost every offensive snap — not someone whose job is to stand on the sideline.

In 2020, when Gutekunst invested a Day 1 pick in Love, he told Rodgers — whether he meant to or not — that the team was no longer all-in on him. And then, when he invested his two Day 2 picks in a backup RB (A.J. Dillon) and TE/H-back (Josiah Deguara), he told Rodgers something else: “I have no idea what I’m doing.”

The corn on Gutekunst’s plate is of his own planting, and it was grown in his own stale manure. It doesn’t matter if he doesn’t like corn. At the end of supper, he’ll have a Faulknerian cobb on his hands.

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Jordan Love (10) participate in Packers training camp on Wednesday, July 27, 2022, at Ray Nitschke Field in Ashwaubenon, Wisconsin. Samantha Madar/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis

As for LaFleur, he took over a team that went 13-18-1 with back-to-back losing seasons and immediately strung together three 13-win campaigns and reinvigorated the career of his aging QB. He had a losing year in 2022, but that should be placed in context: It was his first Packers season without Adams and OC Nathaniel Hackett, and Rodgers suffered a broken thumb at the end of Week 5, but he continued to play through it — and the team lost six of its next seven games as Rodgers struggled with the injury. 

LaFleur hasn’t achieved in the postseason, but he looks like a good coach and might be one of the few offensive mentors capable of developing Love and positioning him for success early in his career, given his history.

After working as a college coach for five years, LaFleur joined the Texans in 2008 as an offensive quality control coach and proceeded to work under current 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan for eight of nine years. A master of offensive scheming and QB maximization, Shanahan eventually relied on LaFleur as his top lieutenant.

After two years with the Texans, LaFleur followed OC Shanahan to Washington, where he was the QBs coach for four years and helped to launch Robert Griffin as a rookie and develop Kirk Cousins in his first two seasons. Following a one-year stint as the Notre Dame QBs coach, LaFleur reunited in 2015 with OC Shanahan in Atlanta, where he helped veteran Matt Ryan pick up the Shanahan system and win an MVP in 2016.

With this record of success, LaFleur teamed up with HC Sean McVay — another Shanahan acolyte he worked with in Washington in 2010-13 — and served as the 2017 Rams OC, in which capacity he oversaw the No. 1 offense in the NFL and helped resuscitate QB Jared Goff, who had almost been left for dead after a moribund rookie season.

But with McVay, LaFleur was unable to act as the offensive playcaller, so he went to Tennessee in 2018 and did an admirable job as Titans OC by building a backfield-focused offense that delimited the negative impact of QB Marcus Mariota and helped launch RB Derrick Henry.

The overall numbers weren’t pretty — the offense was No. 27 in scoring — but the Titans went 9-7 with a complementary style of football, and LaFleur proved that he could construct a functional system around the players he had to work with.

In 2019, when the Packers hired him as HC, they gave him some great players to work with — and the results have spoken for themselves: Over the past four years, the Packers are No. 2 in offensive expected points added and success rate and No. 3 in fourth-down aggressiveness (per RBs Don’t Matter).

As a schemer, play-caller, game planner and decision-maker, LaFleur is good.

He seems to be not as good as a staff manager. In 2019, when the team brought in LaFleur, he decided to retain DC Mike Pettine, who had been hired the previous year by former HC Mike McCarthy. He probably should’ve fired him right away. After two years, he finally let Pettine go and then hired current DC Joe Barry, whom he probably should’ve fired this offseason. But Barry is coming back for his third season with the team.

Given all that the Packers have invested into the defense, it’s unacceptable for them to have only one top-10 finish in scoring in LaFleur’s tenure (No. 9) — especially since the Packers' offense has aided the defense by controlling the ball with its slow pace.

And it’s possible — though not probable — that Rodgers might still be in Green Bay if LaFleur had been better at managing him and dealing with Gutekunst.

There’s more to being a coach than building a scheme, planning games, and calling plays. As an offensive coach, LaFleur is probably in the top five, definitely top eight. As an HC, he’s outside the top 10 — but he has the ability to improve. 

Matt LaFleur coaching record

• Years: 4
• Playoffs: 3
• Division Titles: 3
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 3-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +2
• Regular Season: 47-19 (.712)
• Playoff Record: 2-3 (.400)
• Against the Spread: 42-29 ATS (13.8% ROI)
• Moneyline: 49-22 (12.4% ROI)
• Over/Under: 35-36 (-2.0% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Adam Stenavich
• Offensive Playcaller: Matt LaFleur
• OL Coach: Luke Butkus
• QBs Coach: Tom Clements
• RBs Coach: Ben Sirmans
• WRs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Jason Vrable
• TEs Coach: John Dunn
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Stenavich is a former OL coach, and while I generally don’t like the offenses we see under OL-originating coordinators, the fact that LaFleur is still the playcaller mitigates some concerns. Plus, Andy Reid started out as an OL coach, so I should probably cast off my OL coach-to-OC biases.

An offseason/practice squad OL in the NFL for five years (2006-10), Stenavich was on the 2006-07 Packers and then finished his career with the 2008-10 Texans, where Shanahan and LaFleur were on the coaching staff. After retiring, Stenavich worked in the college ranks for six years before jumping to the NFL and serving as an assistant OL coach on Shanahan’s 49ers for two years (2017-18).

Given his long-term familiarity with the Shanahan scheme, he was an attractive candidate for the Packers OL job when LaFleur was hired in 2019, so he brought in Stenavich, who did two years as the OL coach (2019-20) before adding run game coordinator to his job description in 2021 and then replacing former OC Nathanial Hackett in 2022.

In his first year as Packers OC, Stenavich oversaw a unit that markedly underperformed expectations, although much of that can be excused away by circumstances. Still, a former run game coordinator is probably not an ideal OC for a league driven by the passing game. At least he knows the offense well and can be trusted by LaFleur to install it, and he returns all of last year’s position coaches.

Butkus (nephew of Dick, legendary Hall of Fame Bears LB) was previously the Packers assistant OL coach (2019-21) and was promoted last year when Stenavich advanced to the OC role. Intermixed with two OL coach stints at Illinois (2012, 2016-18), Butkus on his way to Green Bay had stops with the 2007-09 Bears (OL assistant), 2010-11 Seahawks (OL quality control) and 2013-15 Jaguars (assistant OL coach, working alongside future Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett).

Clements is a CFL Hall of Fame QB who practiced law for five years after retiring and then transitioned to coaching. Before landing in Green Bay in 2006, he was the QBs coach at 1992-95 Notre Dame, 1997-99 Saints, 2000 Chiefs and 2001-03 Steelers and OC at 2004-05 Bills. As the Packers QBs coach, he guided Brett Favre to his first Pro Bowl in years and developed Rodgers and Matt Flynn.

After Rodgers won his first MVP in 2011, Clements was promoted to OC — and then after Rodgers’ second MVP in 2014 he was named assistant HC and given offensive playcalling duties. His contract wasn’t renewed in 2016 — in part because then-HC Mike McCarthy wanted to consolidate power — and without Clements the Packers had back-to-back losing seasons and McCarthy lost his job.

Clements returned to the NFL in 2019 to be the pass game coordinator/QBs coach for the Cardinals and then retired after the 2020 season, only to be lured out of retirement last year by the Packers and named QBs coach in an attempt by the team to appease Rodgers, whose respect and affection for Clements is known.

With Rodgers now gone, Clements is staying in Green Bay to help Love early in his career, just as he helped Rodgers years ago. Outside of LaFleur, Clements is probably the most important person on the coaching staff — and the team couldn’t have a better person as the QBs coach. 

Sirmans has been coaching RBs since 1996, in the NFL since 2012 and with the Packers since 2016. Under his guidance, RBs Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon have provided the Packers with good backfield production. LaFleur was wise to carry Sirmans over from McCarthy’s staff.

Vrable worked with former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett as an assistant QBs coach at Syracuse (2010) and then a quality control coach with the Bills (2013-14). After more time with the Bills (2015-16) and then Jets (2017-18), Vrable reunited with Hackett on the Packers in 2019 and then was promoted to WRs coach in 2020. Last year, he added passing game coordinator duties to his job.

Dunn was named TEs coach last year after joining the team in 2021 as senior analyst. Before his time with the Packers, he did 12 years in the college ranks before joining the Bears in 2016 as a quality control coach and eventually making his way to the Jets, where he was the TEs coach for two years (2019-20).

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Joe Barry
• DL Coach/Running Game Coordinator: Jerry Montgomery
• Pass Rush Specialist: Jason Rebrovich
• Inside LBs Coach: Kirk Olivadotti
• Passing Game Coordinator: Greg Williams
• DBs Coach: Ryan Downard
• Notable Turnover: DBs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator Jerry Gray (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Barry has been coaching in the NFL almost every year since 2000. He worked with LaFleur on the Rams, where he was the 2017-20 assistant HC/LBs coach, so when LaFleur chose to dismiss DC Mike Pettine in 2020 he naturally thought of Barry as a candidate.

Barry cut his teeth on the “Tampa-2” scheme as the 2001-06 Buccaneers LBs coach under DC Monte Kiffin and alongside DL coach Rod Marinelli, who was named Lions HC in 2006 and hired Barry — his son-in-law — to be DC in 2007.

In both of his seasons with the Lions, the defense was No. 32 in yards allowed. Hilariously, that inspired Detroit News writer Rob Parker to sabotage his career by asking Marinelli this question: “Do you wish your daughter would have married a better defensive coordinator?”

That’s so wrong… but also so right.

After three more LBs coach gigs (2009 Buccaneers, 2010-11 USC, 2012-14 Chargers), he again got a DC job — this time with the 2015-16 Commanders — and his defense was No. 28 in yards in back-to-back years.

And now he’s the Packers' DC.

In 2021, the defense was No. 9 in yardage. Last year, it was No. 17. Barry’s good enough as a longtime LBs coach to develop players, make the most of his position group and get a DC job. As a DC, he’s probably not good enough to keep the job.

Montgomery is a college DL coach who jumped to the NFL with the Packers in 2015 as a defensive front assistant and was promoted to DL coach in 2018. LaFleur smartly retained him in 2019 as the new Packers HC and then gave him the running game coordinator job last year.

Rebrovich worked with former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett on 2011-12 Syracuse (quality control), 2013-14 Bills (quality control, assistant DL coach) and 2017-18 Jaguars (assistant DL coach).

He joined the Packers last year as the outside LBs coach and this year was promoted to “pass rush specialist,” which is basically the same thing as “outside LBs coach,” but it means that he doesn’t need to focus on run defense. He’s 100% focused on getting the edge rushers after the QB. And that’s good, given that the Packers' defense was No. 28 last year in sacks.

Olivadotti worked with LaFleur in Washington, where he coached for all but three years of 2000-18 and was most recently the LBs coach (2014-18). When LaFleur got the Packers' job in 2019, he quickly hired Olivadotti. 

Williams joins the Packers this year as the passing game coordinator replacement to Gray. He worked with Barry on the 2012-14 Chargers (assistant LBs coach, assistant secondary coach) and has been in the NFL since 2009. Immediately before going to Green Bay, he was the DBs/secondary coach for the Colts (2016-17), Broncos (2018) and Cardinals (2019-22). 

Downard has been with the Packers since 2018 and is assuming the position of DBs coach vacated by Gray. Entering his sixth year with the team, he has advanced quickly from quality control (2018) and assistant DBs coach (2019-21) to safeties coach (2022) and now DBs coach and should help ensure continuity in the secondary — the strength of the defense.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• assistant HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Rich Bisaccia
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Byron Storer

Bisaccia worked with DC Joe Barry on the 2002-06 Buccaneers (ST coordinator) and 2012 Chargers (assistant HC/ST coordinator). Right before joining the Packers last year as the ST coordinator, he was the assistant HC/ST coordinator for the Raiders (2018-21), where he stepped up as interim HC in the wake of the Jon Gruden email scandal and guided the team to the postseason. He had the title of assistant HC added to his job title this offseason.

Storer played under Bisaccia on the 2007-09 Buccaneers and then was his assistant special teams coach on the 2010 Bucs, 2012 Chargers, and 2018-21 Raiders. When Bisaccia got the Packers coordinator job last year, Storer joined him in Green Bay.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Jordan Love
• Backups: Sean Clifford, Danny Etling
• Borderline: Alex McGough
• Notable Turnover: QB Aaron Rodgers (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Jordan Love is a 2020 first-rounder who has attempted just 83 passes over the past three years as Rodgers’ backup — and now he’s the No. 1 QB. On the one hand, he’s a guy with just one NFL start. We should expect him to be raw: When he started against the Chiefs in 2021, he guided the offense to just seven points and completed only 55.9% of his passes for 4.9 adjusted yards per attempt. 

On the other hand, Love’s a Day 1 QB entering his fourth season after spending the previous three years in the same offense and learning as much as he can from a future Hall of Famer: We should expect him to be better — perhaps much better — than the typical first-round rookie who gets named the Week 1 starter. In his four brief relief appearances last year, he completed 66.7% of his passes for 10.2 AY/A. Love is an unknown - an unknown with upside.

Sean Clifford is a four-star fifth-round rookie who started four seasons at Penn State and plays with spirit and savvy, but he’s neither a strong nor accurate passer (61.4% completion rate for career).

Danny Etling has been on seven NFL rosters since the Patriots drafted him on Day 3 five years ago, but he did a short stint with the Packers in 2021 and was with the team all of last year (albeit on the offseason roster and then the practice squad).

Alex McCough — like Etling — is a 2018 seventh-rounder who has journeyed across the NFL. Unlike Etling, he did a stint in the USFL over the past two years and showed what he can do, winning two championships and one MVP. Any of Clifford, Etling, and McGough could win the No. 2 job based on how he performs in the preseason.

Projections as of Aug. 5.

Running Backs

• Starter: Aaron Jones
• Backups: AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor
• Borderline: Lew Nichols
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Aaron Jones is a 28-year-old three-down lead back who has put up 6,657 yards and 56 touchdowns from scrimmage over the past half-decade.

He’s still efficient as a runner (5.3 yards per carry last year) and capable enough as a receiver (5.5 yards per target) to get around 250 touches this year. With Rodgers gone, Jones will likely be the unheralded centerpiece of the Packers' offense.

AJ Dillon is a 2020 second-rounder who serves as a bruising complement to Jones. For his size (6-foot and 247 pounds), he’s a good receiver (6.6 yards per target for his career), and over the past two years he has amassed 2,092 yards and 14 touchdowns from scrimmage. On another team, he might be a 1,200-yard lead back.

Patrick Taylor is a 2020 UDFA with just 33 carries and three targets behind Jones and Dillon over the past three years. He’ll try to hold off Nichols, a seventh-round rookie who put up 2,186 yards and 18 touchdowns from scrimmage in 2021 before an injury limited him in 2022.  

Projections as of Aug. 5.

Wide receivers and tight ends

• WR Starters: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed
• WR Backups: Samori Toure, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DeBose
• TE Starter: Luke Musgrave
• TE Backup: Tucker Kraft, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis
• Notable Turnover: WRs Allen Lazard (Jets), Randall Cobb (Jets) and Sammy Watkins (free agent), TEs Robert Tonyan (Bears) and Marcedes Lewis (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Christian Watson is a 2022 second-rounder who entered the NFL with mediocre small-school production (43-801-7 receiving, 15-114-1 rushing in 2021) but a Randy Moss-like physical profile (4.36-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds).

On the team’s first offensive snap of the year, he dropped what would’ve been a 75-yard TD from Rodgers and then saw just 13 more targets for the next two months. But for the final eight weeks of the season he emerged as a big-time playmaker with 31-523-7 receiving (10.1 yards per target) and 4-61-1 rushing. He’s raw as a No. 1 WR — especially for a pass-catching unit with minimal NFL experience — but he’s also resplendent with upside.

Romeo Doubs is a 2022 fourth-rounder with good size (6-foot-2 and 204 pounds) and college production (138-2,111-20 receiving in two final seasons), but he underwhelmed with just 6.3 yards per target as a rookie.

Jayden Reed is a second-round rookie who led Western Michigan with 56-797-8 receiving as an 18-year-old true freshman before transferring to Michigan State, where he had 1,000-plus yards receiving and 13 all-purpose touchdowns as a junior. Likely to play in the slot but possessing inside/outside versatility, Reed has a little 2012-15 Cobb to his game.   

Samori Toure is a 2022 seventh-rounder who dominated at Montana as a junior (87-1,495-13 receiving) and then transferred to Nebraska and led the team with 46-898-5 receiving as a senior. He played only 112 snaps last year but was efficient on his 10 targets (8.2 yards per target) and can line up across the formation.

Dontayvion Wicks and Grant DuBose are slow-ish big-bodied Day 3 rookies who will be lucky to do anything more than play on special teams in 2023.

Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are Day 2 rookies who will compete with each for playing time. Musgrave (nephew of Bill, a longtime NFL assistant) has a great physical profile (4.61-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 253 pounds) but limited college production because of an abbreviated 2020 and injury-impacted 2022 (knee). Kraft — like Musgrave — exhibited good athleticism at the combine (4.69-second 40-yard dash, 7.08-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 254 pounds). Unlike Musgrave, he produced in college with 92-1,121-9 receiving in his two final seasons (24 games). Both Musgrave and Kraft can play inline and in the slot, but Kraft is the more complete player of the two right now.

Josiah Deguara is a 2020 third-rounder who is a hybrid FB/H-back. In three years with the team, he has put up 371 yards, but he has been a core special teamer since 2021. Davis is a 2020 sixth-rounder who caught on with the Packers in 2021 after the Jaguars cut him. He has just 12 targets in his two years in Green Bay, but he is a capable inline blocker and played a team-high 344 snaps on special teams in 2022.

Projections as of Aug. 5.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Josh Myers, RG Jon Runyan, RT Zach Tom
• Backups: OT Yosh Nijman, G/T Royce Newman, G/T Sean Rhyan, OT Rasheed Walker 
• Borderline: OT Caleb Jones 
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Bakhtiari is a soon-to-be 32-year-old two-time first-team All-Pro franchise blindside stalwart who missed most of 2021 to an ACL tear but returned to action in 2022 and looked like his former self. An above-average run blocker and near-elite pass protector, Bakhtiari has allowed only one sack since 2020 and is the leader of a group that returns all its starters and backups.

Jenkins is a two-time Pro Bowl 2019 second-rounder who has played most at LG but significantly at LT, C and RT. He adds great value with his positional versatility and is a plus two-phase blocker.

Myers is a 2021 second-rounder who is poor at run blocking (53.5 PFF grade last year) but strong at pass protecting (13 pressures on 604 pass rushes). Runyan is the son of Jon Runyan Sr., a longtime RT who started 192 NFL games and played in multiple Super Bowls.

Runyan Jr. is a 2020 sixth-rounder who backed up as a rookie, started at LG in 2021, and then flipped to RG midseason in 2022. Like Myers, he’s a subpar run blocker (53.6 PFF grade last year) but strong pass blocker (five sacks allowed since 2021). 

Tom is a 2022 fourth-rounder who saw snaps last year at every non-C position on the line. He was a liability in the run game (55.7 PFF grade) but asset in the pass game (one sack on 270 pass rushes) and has opened training camp as the presumptive starting RT, although he’ll need to beat out Nijman, a 2019 UDFA who has made 21 starts over the past two years and steadily improved throughout his career. Nijman can play on both sides of the line and offers quality depth as one of the league’s best swing tackles.

Newman is a 2021 fourth-rounder who started 16 games at RG as a rookie, but the return of Bakhtiari and elevation of Tom pushed him to the bench last year. Newman is poor across the board (career-high PFF grade of 57.5), but he at least is experienced and familiar with the system. 

Rhyan and Walker are both four-star 2022 selections who combined for just five special teams snaps last year but have long-term potential. Rhyan is a third-rounder who earned the starting LT job at UCLA as a true freshman and entered the NFL as a junior.

Walker — like Rhyan — started for three years at LT in college but slipped to the seventh round because of range concerns. Both might need to kick inside to guard eventually, and they will face camp competition from Jones, a 2022 UDFA developmental project with mouth-watering size (6-foot-9 and 370 pounds).     

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith
• EDGE Backups: Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Justin Hollins
• DT Starters: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt
• DT Backups: T.J. Slaton, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks
• Borderline: EDGE Brenton Cox and DT Jonathan Ford
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Jonathan Garvin (free agent), DTs Jarran Reed (Seahawks) and Dean Lowry (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Gary is a 2019 first-rounder with freakish athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 277 pounds) and 15.5 sacks in 27 games over the past two years. He missed the second half of 2022 with an ACL tear and opened camp on the PUP, but all indications are that he will be ready to play at or near the start of the season.

Smith is a 30-year-old veteran who signed with the Packers in 2019 after opening his career in Washington. In his four years in Green Bay, Smith has amassed 33.5 sacks and been respectable against the run.

Van Ness is a first-round rookie who has Gary-like athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds) and racked up 13.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in two years at Iowa as a rotational player. He has edge/interior functionality and All-Pro upside. Enagbare is a 2022 fifth-rounder who had a mediocre rookie campaign (61.4 PFF grade), but he held the fort with 465 snaps. 

Hollins is a 2019 fifth-rounder who played on the Broncos as a rookie under Brandon Staley (then outside LBs coach) and then was picked up by the Rams in 2020, where Staley was the new DC and Barry was positioned as the LBs coach.

When the Rams waived Hollins late last year, the Packers picked him up, gave him regular rotational snaps and then signed him to a one-year deal with $155K guaranteed, so he’s likely to make the roster. He’s an unexceptional pass rusher but above-average run defender, and he’s familiar with Barry.

If Gary isn’t ready to play early in the year, the Packers could keep Cox, a five-star rookie UDFA who was kicked out of the Georgia and Florida programs but produced when on the field (32.5 tackles for loss in final three years).

Clark is a two-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Packers since his 2016 rookie season. A strong interior pass rusher, Clark started his career as more of a run-challenging nose, but since 2020 he has primarily been a four-technique player, and as such he has been less impactful in run defense (career-low 53.0 PFF grade last year). Wyatt is a 2022 first-rounder who rotated in as the No. 5 DT last year.

With Reed and Lowry gone, Wyatt will need to step up as a starter. He was a solid contributor as a rookie (69.9 PFF grade) and was a star on the 2021 championship-winning Georgia defense.

Slaton is a 2021 fifth-rounder who can line up at nose thanks to his size (6-foot-5 and 330 pounds) but is undistinguished as a run defender or pass rusher. Wooden is a fourth-round rookie tweener who is built like a large edge (6-foot-4 and 273 pounds) but is most impactful on the interior as a pass rusher (11 sacks in final two seasons).

Brooks is a sixth-round rookie tweener who is built like a three-tech tackle (6-foot-4 and 296 pounds) but is maybe best as a situational bull-rushing edge (17.5 sacks, 30.5 tackles for loss in last two seasons). Both Wooden and Brooks will likely need to beat out Ford, a 2022 seventh-rounder who made the 53-man roster last year but was a gameday inactive for the entire season. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: De'Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker
• Backups: Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Wilson, Tariq Carpenter
• Notable Turnover: Krys Barnes (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Campbell is a 30-year-old veteran who was first-team All-Pro in his first season with the Packers in 2021 after five years as a subpar starter for the Falcons (2016-19) and Cardinals (2020). In Green Bay, Campbell has made a quantum leap as a cover man (82.22 PFF grade in 2021, 81.0 last year) and been effective as a blitzer (14 pressures on 77 pass rushes), but he regressed as a run defender last season. 

Walker is a 2022 first-rounder who was the No. 3 LB on the 2021 Georgia defense, but he went so high in the draft because of his athletic profile (4.52-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 241 pounds), recruitment pedigree (five stars) and theoretical upside. But in the words of Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane: “If he’s a good hitter why doesn’t he hit good?” Walker was solid in coverage as a rookie but a stone-cold disaster in run defense (35.1 PFF grade). He’ll probably improve in his second season — he can’t be much worse in the box — but he might not be the promised prince. 

McDuffie (2021 sixth-rounder) and Wilson (28-year-old journeyman) are special team standouts who tied for a team-high 10 tackles on the coverage units — but they’re both defensive liabilities. Carpenter is a 2022 seventh-round S-to-LB convert who played 17 snaps last year. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon
• CB Backups: Corey Ballentine, Carrington Valentine
• S Starters: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford
• S Backups: Jonathan Owens, Tarvarius Moore, Dallin Leavitt
• Injured: CB Eric Stokes (knee, foot)
• Borderline: CB Shemar Jean-Charles and S Anthony Johnson
• Notable Turnover: SS Adrian Amos (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Alexander is a 2018 first-rounder who has been a second-team All-Pro in his two most recent full seasons. He missed all but four games in 2021 because of a shoulder injury, but over the past three years he has allowed just 6.4 yards per target. He’s not big (5-foot-10 and 196 pounds), but he has the speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) and physicality to match up with almost any WR.

Stokes is a 2021 first-rounder who had a promising rookie season (51% catch rate), but he suffered severe-sounding season-ending injuries in Week 9 last year and is dealing with the dreaded Lisfranc.

I’m conservatively projecting him to be unavailable to start the season, but he might return faster than I expect. In Stokes’ absence last year, Douglas kicked outside to the perimeter and Nixon stepped up as the slot corner, and we’d likely see that configuration again if Stokes were out.

Douglas is a 2017 third-rounder who joined the Packers in 2021 after four years with the Eagles (2017-19) and Panthers (2020). Inconsistent early in his career, Douglas has been a strong producer with the Packers, holding receivers to 6.5 yards per target. Nixon is a 2019 UDFA who played minimally for the Raiders for his first three seasons but followed ST coordinator Rich Bisaccia to the Packers last year and — in addition to balling out as a return man — performed well enough as a backup slot defender (60.4 PFF coverage grade) to earn a one-year $4M deal.

Ballentine is a 2019 sixth-round journeyman who has been on six teams since 2020. He blasphemes the football gods in coverage (he has never had a PFF grade of even 45.0), but he was a core special teamer for the Packers last year. Valentine is a seventh-round rookie with just one interception in college but two years of starting experience in the SEC. They’ll both need to hold off Jean-Charles, a 2021 fifth-rounder with 321 special teams snaps over the past two years. 

Savage is a 2019 first-rounder who contributed immediately as a starter and was strong in coverage in his first two seasons (76.3 and 73.6 PFF grades), but he has drastically tailed off in his most recent campaigns (60.6, 43.8), and he has always been a run-game liability with his size (5-foot-11 and 198 pounds). In all fairness to him, though, it’s possible that his coverage regression has more to do with the switch to Barry’s scheme than his actual ability. Still, the team needs him to improve in 2023.

Ford is a 2017 sixth-rounder who caught on with the Packers last year, made six starts in the second half of the season and had a career-best campaign (74.6 PFF grade). Although he was mainly a deep safety last year, he played in the box and slot for the Jaguars in 2021 and is the early frontrunner to fill Amos’ vacated SS spot, but he’ll need to beat out Owens, a 28-year-old roster survivor who has box/deep flexibility and started 17 games for the Texans last year but underperformed (48.3 PFF grade) and has no guaranteed money on his one-year contract.

Moore is a 2018 third-rounder who played CB for the 49ers as a rookie and then shifted to safety and started 11 games in 2019-20, but he missed 2021 with a ruptured Achilles and played mainly on special teams in 2022. Leavitt is a Bisaccia guy who joined the Packers last year after four seasons with the Raiders. Although he played 255 defensive snaps with the Raiders in 2021, with the Packers in 2022 he was exclusively a special teamer. 

Johnson is a seventh-round rookie who switched from corner to safety in 2022. He has the size (6-foot and 205 pounds) to stay strong in the box and the coverage skills to hang with pass catchers in the slot. If Owens doesn’t impress, Johnson could steal his roster spot.

Specialists

• Kicker: Anders Carlson
• Punter: Pat O’Donnell
• Holder: Pat O’Donnell
• Long Snapper: Matt Orzech
• Kick Returner: Keisean Nixon
• Punt Returner: Keisean Nixon
• Borderline: P Daniel Whelan, LS Broughton Hatcher
• Notable Turnover: K Mason Crosby (free agent), LS Jack Coco (free agent), PR Amari Rodgers (Colts)

Carlson is the heir to Crosby’s Green Bay throne, recently vacated after 16 years. A sixth-round rookie with no training camp competition, Carlson was the No. 1 K prospect in the 2017 recruitment class — but he had a field goal rate of just 71.8% in college and was 30-of-56 converting on attempts of 40-plus yards. He has plenty of length strength but might lack the accuracy to stick in the NFL.

Donnell joined the Packers last season after eight years with the Bears. He doesn’t have much leg — he was No. 28 with 44.5 yards per punt last year — but he had a career-best 46.2% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line (No. 4). That helps. Even so, he could lose his spot to Whelan, who has upside: In high school he hit a 72-yard field goal in practice…

… and he was All-XFL last year with the Defenders with 46.3 yards per punt.

Orzech joins the Packers after being the Rams LS for the past two years. He signed a three-year $3.7M deal with $300K guaranteed, so it would be an upset if he didn’t beat out rookie UDFA Hatcher.

Nixon followed ST coordinator Rich Bisaccia to the Packers last year after spending the previous three seasons with him on the Raiders, and his dedication to Bisaccia was rewarded with first-team All-Pro recognition on the strength of his 28.8 yards per kick return and 12.7 yards per punt return. One year does not an ace return man make, but Nixon was a top-three specialist in 2022.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Packers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 9
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 10-14
• Opponents: at PIT, vs. LAC, at DET, vs, KC, at NYG

The Packers have a top-10 schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents. It’s not a hard schedule. But Weeks 10-14 are definitely not easy.

After a relatively gentle back-to-back homestand against the Vikings and Rams, the Packers go to Pittsburgh in Week 10 to face the Steelers, who have a three-day rest advantage. For Week 11, they host the Chargers. It’s Lambeau Field in November, so it’s not ideal for the warm weather visitors, but the game is at 1 p.m. ET, and it’s probably one or two weeks before the temperature will get unbearably cold, so the Packers won’t have as extreme of a home-field advantage as they could.

For Week 12, they go on the road on four days of rest to play the Lions in the early Thanksgiving Day game, and then they return home to host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

The Packers will have three extra days of rest, and the weather should be cold — but the extra rest probably won’t matter against the Chiefs, and neither will the temperature, given that Kansas City is a cold weather stadium in the winter. Finally, the Packers go back out on the road for a Monday Night Football matchup against the Giants, who are coming off their bye.

In all five of these games the Packers are underdogs. In their three road games, they’re either on short rest or a rest disadvantage. In their two home games, they’re going against championship contenders.

The Packers could enter the final month of the season on a five-game losing streak.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Packers.

• GM Brian Gutekunst unwittingly alienates more stars, who are displeased with him for creating an environment that would make QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams want to leave.
• HC Matt LaFleur overwhelms his first-year starting QB by failing to simplify his offense from the version run by Rodgers.
• DC Joe Barry continues to roll out a defense that is less than the sum of its expensive parts.
• QB Jordan Love performs like a guy with one NFL start and no proven WRs and TEs.
• RB Aaron Jones breaks down in his age-29 season but continues to see heavy usage anyway because he’s not injured.
• WR Christian Watson proves the theory of gravity by coming back to earth.
• TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are so bad as rookies that they fall behind TE Josiah Deguara.
• LT David Bakhtiari suffers an early-season injury, and OC Adam Stenavich responds by experimenting with different personnel alignments on the OL, which consequently struggles to keep Love upright because of the disrupted continuity.
• EDGE Rashan Gary misses the first six weeks of the season because of his ACL tear and is slow to return to his full form after he’s activated.
• DTs Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt pave roadways for opposing RBs to cruise.
• LBs De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker turn those roadways into highways.
• CB Eric Stokes misses the first four games because of his Lisfranc injury and then suffers a season-ending (and possibly related) ankle injury in Week 7.
• FS Darnell Savage declines even further as a pass defender, and SS Rudy Ford regresses to his career-average mediocrity.
• K Anders Carlson looks like a rookie who converted only 71.8% of his field goal attempts in college.
• Packers go 6-11 but finish on a misleading four-game win streak, which convinces LaFleur to stick with Love as the starter and to bring Barry back for another year as DC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Packers.

• GM Brian Gutekunst wanders freely through the fields of Wisconsin now that he has removed the Rodgers landmine.
• HC Matt LaFleur scales the offense to his starting QB.
• DC Joe Barry tweaks his defense to leverage his playmakers.
• QB Jordan Love performs like a typical fourth-year first-round unquestioned starter.
• RB Aaron Jones racks up a career-high 1,600 yards from scrimmage as the focal point of the offense.
• WR Christian Watson proves that a human can break the earth’s gravitational pull if he has a rocket strapped to his back. 
• TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft play like nondescript league-average veterans.
• LT David Bakhtiari misses only one game to a minor injury, and OC Adam Stenavich effectively manages the OL’s pass blocking deficiencies.
• EDGE Rashan Gary returns to action in Week 1 and has his first season with double-digit sacks.
• DTs Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt do just enough to keep opposing RBs from destroying them.
• LBs De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker give the interior DL more effective run support than they did last year.
• CB Eric Stokes returns in Week 1, eases into a full workload in the first five games and comes out of the Week 6 bye ready to man his perimeter spot on a full-time basis.
• FS Darnell Savage bounces back to his pre-2021 pass coverage form, and SS Rudy Ford regresses only slightly from his career-best 2023 performance.
• K Anders Carlson looks like the guy who was the No. 1 player at his position in the 2017 recruitment class.
• Packers go 12-5, win the NFC North, beat the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend in a #RevengeGame for LaFluer and then lose by 11 points on the road to the 49ers in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Packers as a moderate “bet against” team, although I will be quick to update my prior assumptions early in the year if QB Jordan Love plays well.

I think the Packers will be most overvalued at home. Throughout the Rodgers era, they had an incredibly strong home-field advantage.

• Rodgers at Home: 73-42-4 ATS (22.8% ROI)
• Rodgers at Home: 92-25-1 ML (8.7% ROI)

But that same market advantage has not extended to Rodgers’ backups.

• 2008-22 GB Backup QBs at Home: 2-8 ATS (56.1% ROI for faders)
• 2008-22 GB Backup QBs at Home: 3-6-1 ML (10.5% ROI for faders) 

If I do bet on the Packers this year, I’ll likely do so when they’re underdogs, given LaFleur’s performance when getting points.

• LaFleur as Underdog: 13-5 ATS (38.3% ROI)
• LaFleur as Underdog: 11-7 ML (54.7% ROI)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

In the win total market, we have a synthetic negative-hold opportunity.

• Over 7.5 Wins: -115 (BetRivers)
• Under 7.5 Wins: +120 (Caesars)

At these odds, the sportsbooks are effectively paying us to take a position, and my projection of 7.6 wins puts this at almost a coin flip. Even though my projection points slightly to the over, it’s close enough to the market total for me to say that this is a 50/50 bet, and if I can flip coins at plus odds I’ll be inclined to do it.

So I like under 7.5 wins.

But the bet I really like is in the player market.

Jordan Love NFL Leader in Interceptions (+1300, DraftKings)

At BetRivers, Love’s passing yardage prop is as low as 3,150.5 with +101 odds on the over, and I have him projected for 3,503.9. I tend not to bet overs in the season-long prop market, but this looks like an attractive bet because I expect Love — even if he struggles — to play all 17 games if healthy and to get opportunities to throw the ball, because the team needs to evaluate him to see if he’s the QB of the future.

But here’s the thing: If I think Love will get the opportunity to play all 17 games and throw the ball… why wouldn’t I just bet on him to lead the league in interceptions at +1300?

I have him projected for a league-high 13.8 interceptions, but at DraftKings, Love is tied for No. 3 in shortest odds behind Josh Allen (+1000) and Dak Prescott (+1000), so there might be an opportunity in the market.

The Packers are underdogs in 12 contests and could have pass-leaning game scripts throughout the season.

Love is a fourth-year first-rounder — but he’s also a young QB in his first season as a starter. Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions (28) in his first year starting. So did Trevor Lawrence (17).

Even good older QBs can top the board in aerial turnovers. Matthew Stafford led the league in interceptions (17) in 2021 — and then won the Super Bowl. Back in the day, Brett Favre led the league in interceptions in 1993 (24), 2005 (29) and 2008 (22).

It’s not an indictment to say that Love has a good chance to lead the league in interceptions. It’s a way of saying that the team is likely to stick with him for all 17 games and to give him the freedom to go through his natural growing pains, even if he does exhibit some gunslinging and careless tendencies.

That’s a good thing.

Hopefully.

You can tail the interception bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account! Simply sign up below and start betting today!