2023 Houston Texans Betting Preview

Last year the Houston Texans and GM Nick Caserio almost executed the “credible tank” to perfection by promoting underwhelming DC Lovie Smith to HC and going with second-year third-round QB Davis Mills as the starter: “Lovie is a leader of men and experienced NFL HC! He already knows the organization and the guys love him! And Mills showed great promise as a rookie! He could become the type of QB we could build a team around! We’re definitely 100% not tanking!”

The first 14 games of the credible tank were inspiring, starting with the Week 1 home tie against the division rival Colts and culminating with the Week 15 home OT loss to the Chiefs: “We just took the best team in the league to OT! We almost won! We’re definitely 100% not tanking!” At that point, the Texans had a 1-12-1 record, and the No. 1 pick was theirs to lose.

And then they lost it, by winning two of their final three games, including the season finale, which they won by 1 point thanks to a last-minute touchdown drive followed by a two-point conversion.

If Smith hadn’t pushed the team to drive down the field, and if Mills hadn’t thrown two scoring passes on the game-winning drive (the touchdown and then the two-pointer), the Texans wouldn’t have lost the No. 1 pick that Smith and Mills spent all season putting them in position to get.

On the one hand, it was high poetry. On the other hand, it was shoddy workmanship.

Smith was fired — the second one-and-done Texans HC in as many years — and Mills was destined to be replaced by a rookie QB. Enter new HC DeMeco Ryans and QB CJ Stroud…and EDGE Will Anderson.

This year, the Texans hope to improve on their 2022 record, and they better — because they don’t have their first-rounder next year — and the only thing worse than missing out on the No. 1 pick in 2023 would be missing out on it again in 2024.

In this 2023 Texans preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Texans preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 26. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 26. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 26.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 26.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 26.

General Manager and Head Coach

• Exec. VP/General Manager: Nick Caserio
• Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans
• Team Power Rating: -5.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 31
• Coach Ranking: No. 29

Caserio, I have a feeling we’re not in New England anymore.

The Texans GM since January 2021, Caserio — like the power duo he replaced in Houston (HC/GM Bill O’Brien and EVP Jack Easterby) — got his NFL start with the Patriots, where he worked for 20 years before joining the Texans.

Aso like Easterby — a chaplain/“character coach” who eventually considered himself an operations manager and talent evaluator — Caserio served a number of roles with the Patriots, shuffling between personnel (2001 assistant, 2003 area scout, 2004-06 director of pro personnel) and coaching (2002 offensive assistant, 2007 WRs coach) before ultimately settling into the role of director of player personnel (2008-20).

As such, he reported to VP Scott Pioli in his first year, but in 2009, when Pioli left to be the Chiefs GM, Caserio became the top personnel executive on the Patriots (other than HC Bill Belichick).

So it’s not as if Easterby was exactly the Patriots' GM or even assistant GM. He didn’t have decision-making power. But he was Belichick’s right-hand personnel man for a dozen years during a highly successful stretch for the franchise.

On the one hand, that probably makes him a better choice than O’Brien and Easterby to run an NFL team. On the other hand, Belichick (an all-time great HC) is notoriously uneven as a GM, so transplanting a branch — another (even if better) branch — from his executive tree might not be a fruitful endeavor.

And Caserio’s brief tenure as GM has been uneven at best and incompetent at worst.

It might be easiest to wrap our brains around Caserio’s course if we look at a timeline.

• Jan. 7, 2021: Caserio is hired as Texans GM.
• Jan. 28, 2021: News breaks that QB Deshaun Watson — a three-time Pro Bowler who led the league with 4,823 yards passing the previous year and has a no-trade clause in his contract — has requested a trade, primarily because he doesn’t like the direction of the franchise or the way it handled its GM and HC searches. Caserio tells Watson that he does not plan to trade him.
• Jan. 29, 2021: Caserio hires Ravens assistant HC, WRs coach and passing game coordinator David Culley as Texans HC.
• Mar. 16, 2021: The first civil lawsuit against Watson is filed.
• Mar. 22, 2021: Caserio signs QB Tyrod Taylor to a one-year contract.
• Apr. 5, 2021: The 22nd civil lawsuit against Watson is filed.
• Apr. 30, 2021: Caserio uses the No. 67 pick — his first selection as a GM — on QB Davis Mills.
• 2021 Season: Texans go 4-13 and get the No. 3 pick in the 2022 draft.
• Jan. 13, 2022: Caserio fires Culley.

Let’s take a break in the action right here. Caserio had a chance — at the peak of Watson’s value — to trade the QB, per the QB’s request, and Caserio said no.

Less than two months later, Watson was a persona non grata for the Texans. They couldn’t play him. And at that time they couldn’t trade him. All they could do was pay him. Essentially pay him not to play.

Could Caserio have known that Watson was about to become a massive liability? Maybe. People in the Texans organization knew that Watson used a number — a seemingly large number — of massage therapists who weren’t affiliated with the team.

From a risk-management perspective, that should’ve raised some red flags, even if it turned out that nothing was happening.

Should Caserio have known that Watson was about to become a massive liability? Probably.

Aug 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to pass against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the job of the GM to know what’s going on with the franchise QB. That the Texans' front office and ownership — with all their resources and connections — couldn’t find out in advance that Watson was about to get hit with a civil lawsuit (much less 22 civil lawsuits) is damning. And most of that falls on Caserio.

When he was hired, the biggest contract on the books was Watson’s. Caserio should’ve done everything he could — his first day on the job — to ensure that Watson was an asset and not a liability. He failed to do that. And then, when dumb luck offered him a way out of Watson’s contract, Caserio proved that he was the dumber of the two.

So Watson stayed with the Texans — on their 53-man roster — for the entirety of 2021, and he collected his full $10.54M salary, but the team didn’t suit him up for one game. Instead, Caserio addressed the QB position by signing Taylor and drafting Mills.

That’s like shooting someone in the chest, offering them a Band-Aid, and then — once the person is dead — claiming that Culley was the one who pulled the trigger.

Caserio killed the Texans’ 2021 season before it even started. He tried to patch the wound with a hopelessly insufficient QB bandage. And after the organizational corpse was in the ground he scapegoated Culley — even though the HC managed to win the same number of games (four) without Watson as the 2020 Texans had won with him.

Was Culley a great HC? Probably not. But he did well enough with the players he was given… and Caserio’s the guy who hired him in the first place.

Let’s return to the timeline, where Caserio now needs to find a new HC.

• Jan. 14, 2022: Caserio interviews former Dolphins HC Brian Flores, whom he worked with for 11 years on the Patriots (2008-18).
• Jan. 18, 2022: Caserio interviews Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon.
• Jan. 21, 2022: Caserio interviews former QB Josh McCown, who was a backup on the 2020 Texans and a serious candidate for the 2021 HC job despite never having been a coach or coordinator in the NFL or college ranks.
• Feb. 1, 2022: Flores sues the NFL, Giants, Dolphins and Broncos for racial discrimination.
• Feb. 3, 2022: Josina Anderson reports that Flores, Gannon and McCown are the three HC finalists.

• Feb. 5, 2022: Gannon is informed by the Texans that he’s no longer in the running.
• Feb. 6, 2022: Caserio interviews associate HC/DC Lovie Smith for the HC job. 

• Feb. 7, 2022: The Texans announce that they have promoted Smith to HC.
• Feb. 7, 2022: Flores’ legal team sends out this tweet.

Oh my. Here’s how I’m interpreting this — and how I think most reasonable people would (or should) interpret this.

Caserio wanted Flores, the first person he interviewed for the job — one day after he fired Culley. In fact, he possibly fired Culley just so he could hire Flores, who successfully rebuilt the Dolphins and had back-to-back winning seasons in his final two years in Miami.

Plus, Watson had wanted a trade to the Dolphins so that he could play for Flores.

If Caserio got Flores, then maybe he could convince Watson to stay after his legal issues sorted out.

So Flores was the guy, at least for Caserio. The Texans had to interview other people so they could say that they had been thorough and done all their due diligence. And Easterby — still with the team as VP of football operations — convinced them to interview McCown for the job for a second straight year. But Flores was the frontrunner.

And then he sued the league.

For owners Janice McNair and Cal McNair, I think that disqualified him from the position — but they couldn’t immediately say, two days after he sued the league, that Flores was no longer a candidate, especially since he was Caserio’s choice.

So the Texans leaked that Flores was a finalist — but they didn’t want Gannon (who is already looking questionable as the Cardinals HC), and they absolutely could not pass up Flores for McCown (a white guy with no HC/coordinator experience) without risking a lawsuit of their own.

Enter Smith, who has HC experience (like Flores) and organizational familiarity (like McCown)… and also just happens (totally coincidentally) to be an African American.

The Texans made a decision that they could halfway defend and that would fully keep them from getting sued — but they looked utterly incompetent in leaking out the names of the finalists… and then not hiring one of them.

For the second year in a row, Caserio it seems made a suboptimal HC hire.

Alright, back to the timeline!

• Mar. 11, 2022: A Texas grand jury declined to indict Watson on criminal charges.
• Mar. 18, 2022: Caserio trades Watson and a 2024 sixth-rounder to the Browns in exchange for 2022-24 first-rounders, a 2023 third-rounder and 2022 and 2024 fourth-rounders.

This will almost certainly be the high point of Caserio’s Texans tenure. Even though Watson still had 22 civil lawsuits pending after the grand jury’s decision, Caserio used the brief window of opportunity created by this positive news for Watson to close a deal with the Browns.

And he got back an obscene amount of draft capital for Watson — although that likely had more to do with the Browns and their desperation than with Caserio’s savvy negotiation tactics.

Still, good job by Caserio in finally freeing the Texans from Watson. One year later than it should’ve been, but still a good job to get out when he did.

Back to the timeline: Here’s what Caserio did on the first two days of the draft.

• Apr. 28, 2022: Caserio trades the No. 13 pick from the Browns to the Eagles in exchange for picks Nos. 15, 124, 162 and 166, and then he uses the No. 15 pick on OG Kenyon Green.
• Apr. 29, 2022: Caserio gives the Browns picks Nos. 108 and 124 in order to move up from No. 68 to No. 44 so he can select WR John Metchie.
• Apr. 29, 2022: Caserio sends pick No. 162 to the Broncos so he can move up from No. 80 to No. 75 in order to select LB Christian Harris.

At this point, it might’ve been justified to terminate Caserio.

Good move by him to move down from No. 13 to No. 15 to pick up three decent Day 3 picks. When rebuilding the roster, adding extra draft capital to move down two spots is a no-brainer. But then using that pick on an interior lineman is highly questionable, especially when your organization needs a QB and you have your choice of any QB in the draft. 

Now, maybe you don’t like any of the available QBs and you’d rather go with the “credible tank” in order to improve your draft position next year, when you can take a QB in a superior class. That’s a fine and valid perspective.

But you can’t take an interior OL in that spot. And if you do then he better turn into a world-beater. I’m not going to put too much weight on one year of data, but Green was terrible last year — worse, in fact, than all the other OLs taken in Round 1… and also worse than the only QB taken in Round 1 (at least judging by offensive PFF grades).

• OG Kenyon Green (No. 15): 37.7 PFF
• OG Zion Johnson (No. 17): 62.2 PFF
• OT Trevor Penning (No. 19): 73.6 PFF
• QB Kenny Pickett (No. 20): 75.5 PFF
• OT Tyler Smith (No. 24): 73.3 PFF
• C Tyler Linderbaum (No. 25): 74.6 PFF

A lot of things go into PFF grades, but of the options Caserio was (or should’ve been) considering for the middle of Round 1, there’s a decent chance he chose the worst one.

And notice that I’m not even dogging Caserio for choosing CB Derek Stingley at No. 3 instead of first-team All-Pro CB Sauce Gardner, who went one pick later. Stingley might still turn into a great player, and at least Caserio addressed a key position at the top of the draft.

But going with Stingley instead of Gardner and also going with Green instead of any of the other Round 1 OLs gives the impression that Caserio isn’t a great talent evaluator.

Of course, if you want to make the argument that it’s a matter of coaching and not evaluating, you can. Maybe Stingley and Green comparatively underperformed not because Caserio misevaluated them but because the Texans coaching staff misused them. That’s possible.

Still, that’s not a great excuse: Caserio’s ultimately responsible for the coaches.

And then Day 2 was bad. If you’re doing the “credible tank,” then you don’t want to trade away draft assets to move up. Rather, you want to accumulate as many draft picks as possible, and that normally entails moving down, as Caserio did in Round 1.

But on Day 2 the Texans collectively traded two third-rounders, two fourth-rounders and a fifth-rounder so they could draft two players: a WR who was never the No. 1 receiver on his college team and was coming off an end-of-season ACL injury… and an offball LB.

Seriously. 

Back to the timeline.

• 2022 Season: Texans go 3-13-1 and get the No. 2 pick in the draft despite “leading” the race to the No. 1 pick going into Week 18.
• Jan. 8, 2023: Caserio fires Smith the same day of the season finale.
• Maybe — just maybe — if Smith hadn’t known that he was destined to be a one-and-done HC (by this point the writing was on the wall), he would’ve been a little more willing to ensure in Week 18 that the team ended up with the No. 1 selection.
• Regardless, the team fumbled the pick at the goal line — and that reflects back on Caserio.
• Jan. 31, 2023: Caserio hires 49ers DC and former Texans LB DeMeco Ryans as HC.
• Mar. 1-10, 2023: Caserio has a deal in place to trade the No. 2 pick (and other assets) to the Bears in exchange for No. 1… but he delays, and so…

• Mar. 10, 2023: The Bears trade the No. 1 pick to the Panthers.
• Apr. 27, 2023: Caserio drafts QB CJ Stroud at No. 2 — and then trades the Nos. 12 and 33 picks — as well as 2024 first- and third-rounders — to the Cardinals for Nos. 3 and 105 in order to select EDGE Will Anderson right after Stroud.

Inconceivable.

In trading away Watson, Caserio ran into a burning bank and retrieved a fortune of cash stored in a safety deposit box. In trading up to draft Anderson, Caserio went home, put that cash into a shoebox and then lit the house on fire.

Instead of staying at No. 12 and drafting an edge rusher there — like Lukas Van Ness (No. 13) or Will McDonald (No. 15) — the Texans traded away three top-100 picks to get a guy who might not be better than the edge they could’ve taken if they’d just kept No. 12.

And they traded away their own 2024 first-rounder, not the one they got from the Browns. The Texans have finished with three wins in back-to-back years. Stroud and Anderson could become great players — but they might be slow to develop as rookies, and maybe Ryans will struggle as a first-year HC. The Texans could be bad once again in 2023.

There’s a chance that they traded away a top-five pick — maybe even the No. 1 pick in a class expected to be strong at QB — to get Anderson. That’s unbelievable.

And this is nothing against Anderson, who warranted the No. 3 pick in this draft class. He should improve the Texans defensive line and could end up being a multi-year Pro Bowler. I hope he is. He was awesome in college and seems like a high-character dude.

But the Texans were reckless with their draft capital, especially since they can’t say for sure that Anderson will be better than Van Ness and McDonald in the NFL. He probably will be, but we can’t be certain about that, and Caserio — judging by his 2022 Round 1 decisions — definitely can’t be certain about it.

In areas of vast uncertainty, like the NFL draft, it usually makes sense to have a humble “we don’t know as much as we think we know” approach, which can prevent people from over-leveraging themselves. But in trading up for Anderson, Caserio acted like he owns Biff’s almanac.

How did the Texans get to this point?

Here’s how I’m interpreting — and how I think most reasonable people would (or should) interpret — the precipitating events.

The Texans hired Ryans (more on him later), and Caserio let him have personnel input for the draft. They liked Young more than the other QBs (if they didn’t, they wouldn’t have attempted to trade up to No. 1), so they got a deal in place for the top pick — and then Caserio failed to close the deal.

Now stuck at No. 2, they evaluated their options and decided that they didn’t like one of the remaining top QBs (C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis) significantly more than the others — and maybe they didn’t like any of them enough to want to plant a franchise flag on them with a Round 1 pick, or at least the No. 2 pick.

And Ryans is a defensive HC. He might be inclined to want a defender at No. 2, especially since that player would immediately help “his” unit. And near the top of the board is Anderson — a bona fide producer out of Alabama (Ryans’ alma mater) — who did well at the combine (4.60-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 253 pounds) and dominated in college as a three-year starter and unanimous two-time All-American.

Ryans didn’t like any of the QBs well enough to want them at No. 2. He wanted Anderson.

So this following conversation ensues between Caserio and the McNairs.

• Caserio: “We’re not going with a QB at No. 2. We’re going with Anderson.”
• McNairs: “Fine, but only if we get the QB at No. 12 that we would’ve taken at No. 2.”
• Caserio: “We won’t.”
• McNairs: “Then take him at No. 2.”
• Caserio: “We actually don’t like him enough to take him No. 2.”
• McNairs: “Well, you don’t have to take him at No. 2. Just as long as we get him.”
• Caserio: “So we could trade up from No. 12 to take a QB, and you’d be fine with that?”
• McNairs: “Yes.”
• Caserio: “OK, we’ll take Anderson No. 2 and then trade up from No. 12 to get Stroud.”
• McNairs: “Fine. Do whatever. It’s on your head anyway.”
• Caserio: “Thank you.”

So Caserio has the plan to take Anderson No. 2 and trade up for Stroud — probably to No. 3.

But here’s the thing: Once Caserio started talking to the Cardinals, he realized that he would have less competition in the market for the No. 3 pick (and it would thus be cheaper) if he took Stroud at No. 2 and then traded up for Anderson. If he had taken Anderson No. 2, the Cardinals might’ve been able to get multiple future first-rounders from another team for the right to take Stroud No. 3, thereby likely pricing the Texans out of the market.

Now here’s the hilarious thing: This should’ve signaled to Caserio that the Texans were overvaluing Anderson and undervaluing Stroud with their evaluations. But it didn’t. To Caserio, this market information wasn’t a sign. It was just a nuance to be navigated.

As a result, the Texans took Stroud No. 2 and then traded up for Anderson at No. 3. They got their guys, and they did it in the correct order — but they did it for the wrong reason, and both of them shouldn’t have been “their guys.”

All of this is a long and detailed way of saying this: Caserio is probably not a good GM.

For the rest of his time with the Texans — and probably after — Caserio will be remembered as the guy who traded away the future for Anderson. And he probably did it because that’s what Ryans wanted. If it doesn’t work out, Ryans has a better chance of surviving than Caserio, who is less than three years into a job and already on a third HC. Rarely do GMs get to hire three HCs. Almost never do they get four.

But Caserio’s third HC has promise and is a good fit for the Texans.

In 2006, the Texans drafted Ryans out of Alabama as a unanimous All-American, and he won Defensive Rookie of the Year. He spent the first six years of his career with the Texans and made the Pro Bowl twice (2007, 2009) with the organization. A hard-nosed fan favorite who is still young enough to connect with players (39 years old), Ryans should help energize the franchise.

After he retired, he joined the 49ers in 2017 as a defensive quality control coach under HC Kyle Shanahan and DC Robert Saleh, both of whom were on the Texans coaching staff when Ryans was in Houston. Saleh, specifically, worked closely with Ryans, first as a quality control coach (2006-08) and then as the assistant LBs coach (2009-10).

With a year of service, Ryans was promoted to inside LBs coach (2018-20), and then he was tapped to replace Saleh as DC (2021-22) when he left to be Jets HC. In his new role, Ryans did well.

Despite taking over a good unit, he improved it in 2021, taking it from Nos. 5 and 17 in scoring and yardage to Nos. 3 and 9. And then in 2022 he took it to No. 1 in both categories and won Assistant Coach of the Year.

Being a good coordinator isn’t the same thing as being a good coach, and Ryans has just two years of experience as a coordinator.

And being a good defensive schemer isn’t as valuable to a team as being an offensive innovator.

But Ryans has promise. I think he’ll be a good HC. I just can’t say right now that he’s a good one.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Slowik
• Offensive Playcaller: Bobby Slowik
• Senior Offensive Assistant: Shane Day
• Senior Offensive Assistant: Bill Lazor
• QBs Coach: Jerrod Johnson
• Assistant HC/RBs Coach: Danny Barrett
• WRs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Ben McDaniels
• TEs Coach: Jake Moreland
• OL Coach: Chris Strausser
• Notable Turnover: OC/Playcaller Pep Hamilton (free agent), TEs Coach Tim Berbenich (free agent), OL Coach George Warhop (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Slowik is the son of Bob Slowik, a longtime defensive lieutenant of HC Mike Shanahan on the Broncos and then Commanders, where Bobby first worked in the NFL as a video assistant (2010) and then defensive assistant (2013).

After the Shanahan regime was terminated in Washington, Slowik worked at PFF for three years as an analyst, and then he returned to the NFL in 2017 as a defensive quality control coach for the 49ers. A WR in college, Slowik finally got back to his side of the ball in 2019 as an offensive assistant, and then he received promotions in consecutive seasons to pass game specialist in 2021 and pass game coordinator in 2022.

Given his in-depth familiarity with both sides of the ball, long working relationship with Ryans (since 2016), presumed mastery of 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan’s offense and development of rookie QB Brock Purdy last year, Slowik has the potential to be a strong OC/playcaller — but it’s worth noting that he has no experience in the role.

Assisting him are Day and Lazor. Day has been in the NFL almost every year since 2007 and a QBs coach with three different teams (2010-11 Bears, 2019-20 49ers, 2021-22 Chargers).

He’s advantageously overqualified for the role of senior assistant, as is Lazor, who has been in the NFL almost every year since 2003. Over the past 20 years, he has been an NFL OC (2014-15 Dolphins, 2017-18 Bengals, 2020-21 Bears) three times and NFL QBs coach (2006-07 Commanders, 2008-09 Seahawks, 2013 Eagles, 2016 Bengals) four times.

Johnson is a former QB who bounced around the NFL, CFL, UFL, IFL and YCF for seven years (2011-16, 2018) before getting into coaching. He started as a coaching fellow for the 2017 49ers, where he worked with Ryans and Slowik, and then did three years with the Colts (2019 fellow, 2020-21 quality control) and a year with the Vikings (2022 assistant QBs coach) before reuniting with Ryans and Slowik this offseason.

Barrett has been with the Texans since 2018 as the RBs coach, and this offseason — in recognition of his loyalty to the organization and developmental work last year with rookie Dameon Pierce — he had the title of assistant HC added to his job description.

A longtime CFL QB (1983-96, 1998) and CFL HC/QBs coach (1997, 1998-2006), Barrett moved into the college ranks in 2007 and then jumped to the NFL with the Dolphins (2016-17), where he served as the position coach for RBs Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake in successful campaigns before he landed with the Texans.

McDaniels is the younger brother of Raiders HC Josh McDaniels, who worked with Caserio for years on the Patriots. McDaniels the Lesser — like Barrett — is a holdover from previous regimes. He joined the Texans in 2021 as the assistant WRs coach and then was promoted to WRs coach/pass game coordinator last year.

Over the past 20 years, McDaniels has had 15 different coaching jobs, including several stints with the Broncos (2009 assistant, 2010 QBs coach), Buccaneers (2012-13 assistant) and Bears (2016-17 assistant). I’m surprised Caserio didn’t green-light him as a HC candidate this year. Sort of.

Moreland is a longtime college coach who jumped to the NFL in 2021 as the assistant OL coach for the Jets, and then last year he was the TEs coach for the Broncos (where he did good work with rookie TE Greg Dulcich) before joining the Texans this offseason.

Strausser has been coaching since 1989 but didn’t make the NFL leap until 2017, when he joined the Broncos as the assistant OL coach. He was promoted to OT coach the next year, and then he was poached in 2019 by the Colts, who made him OL coach.

In Indianapolis, he worked with Johnson for three years and managed one of the league’s best lines, but the Colts OL suffered an injury-induced collapse last year, and now he’s with the Texans. Strausser is a strong addition to the coaching staff. 

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Matt Burke
• Pass Game Coordinator: Cory Undlin
• DL Coach: Jacques Cesaire
• LBs Coach: Chris Kiffin
• DBs Coach: Dino Vasso
• Safeties Coach: Stephen Adegoke
• Notable Turnover: De Facto DC Lovie Smith (free agent), LBs Coach Miles Smith (free agent), Safeties Coach Joe Danna (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Burke has been in the NFL since 2004, primarily as a DL/LBs coach, but he was the 2017-18 DC for the Dolphins, who were bottom-six in scoring both seasons. He has never worked directly with Ryans, but he was the game management coach for the 2021 Jets under Saleh (Ryans’ former boss).

In July, Ryans said that he would call defensive plays to open camp, but he indicated that could change during the summer, and in the preseason games Burke was the playcaller. Whether that will remain the case in the regular season is unknown, but there’s a chance that Burke could be more than just an installer of Ryans’ defense. 

Undlin is all sorts of connected with the Texans staff and coaches. His first NFL job was as an assistant for the 2004 Patriots, where he worked with Caserio. He was the DBs coach for the 2015 Eagles — the last team that Ryans played on — and then he served under Ryans on the 2021-22 49ers as a secondary coach and pass game specialist.

And on the 2019 Eagles, he (DBs coach) was on the same staff with Burke (special assistant). The 2020 Lions DC, Undlin has high-level experience.

Cesaire joined the Texans last year and is a holdover from the Smith regime. He played interior DL for the Chargers for nine seasons (2003-11) and then coached at the University of San Diego (2015-19) before doing a two-year stint with the Bills (2010-11 assistant DL coach) on his way to Houston.

Kiffin is the son of longtime NFL DC Monte Kiffin and brother of Mississippi HC Lane Kiffin. A longtime college coach, Kiffin jumped to the NFL in 2018 with the 49ers, where he worked with Ryans as a pass rush specialist coach for two years before doing three years as the Browns DL coach (2020-22) and reuniting with Ryans this season.

Vasso — like Cesaire — is a holdover. He joined the Texans in 2021 as the CBs coach, before which he was on the Eagles (2016-19 assistant secondary coach, 2020 assistant DC), where he worked with Burke (2019-20) and Undlin (2016-19).

Adegoke is a college safety (2016-18 Mississippi State) who did two years at Florida (2019-20) and one year at Michigan (2021) as a graduate assistant before joining the 49ers last season as a quality control coach under Ryans and alongside Undlin. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Frank Ross
• Assistant Special Teams Coordinator: Will Burnham
• Notable Turnover: assistant ST Coach Sean Baker (free agent)

Ross worked with Cesario on the Patriots (2011-12 scouting assistant, 2015-17 pro scout) and played college ball at Cesario’s alma mater (John Carroll) — so naturally Cesario (I mean “David Culley”) hired him in 2021.

After his time with the Patriots, Ross served on the Colts for three years as assistant ST coach. The Texans were No. 2 last year in special teams DVOA, so it made sense for Cesario (I mean “DeMeco Ryans”) to retain him. Burnham is a college special teams assistant making the NFL leap this year. He didn’t play at John Carroll as an undergrad.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: CJ Stroud
• Backups: Davis Mills, Case Keenum
• Notable Turnover: Kyle Allen (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

CJ Stroud is the No. 2 pick of the 2023 draft. He entered college as a five-star recruit and then — after backing up Justin Fields as a freshman — he dominated at Ohio State as a sophomore and junior with 8,123 yards and 85 touchdowns passing (to 12 interceptions) on a 69.3% completion rate and 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt.

While Stroud isn’t much of an improviser and doesn’t challenge defenses with his leg, in the pocket he’s accurate and capable of progressing through reads quickly. He could be a long-term NFL starter with the upside for much more.

Davis Mills is a 2021 third-rounder with 26 NFL starts and a 6.1 AY/A for his career. As evidenced by his league-high 15 interceptions last year, Mills has no business having 26 NFL starts.

Case Keenum returns to the Texans, where he opened his professional career as a 2012 UDFA after an all-time great college career at Houston, where he set FBS records with 1,546 completions, 19,217 yards passing and 155 touchdowns passing. He had 10 moxie-filled starts for the Texans in 2013-14, and for his career, he has made 64 starts and played on seven different teams.

Long gone are the days of 2017, when he went 11-3 with the Minneapolis Miracle Vikings and was No. 2 in Comeback Player of the Year voting. More of a QBs coach than an actual QB at this stage, Keenum could be a great developmental mentor for Stroud.

Projections as of Aug. 26.

Running Backs

• Starter: Dameon Pierce
• Backups: Devin Singletary, Mike Boone
• Fullback: Andrew Beck
• Injured: FB Troy Hairston (back)
• Borderline: RB Dare Ogunbowale
• Notable Turnover: RB Rex Burkhead (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Dameon Pierce is a 2022 fourth-rounder who missed the final four games of his rookie campaign with an ankle injury, but in his 13 starts he put up 1,104 yards and five touchdowns on 220 carries and 39 targets.

He’s more functional than exceptional as a runner (4.3 yards per carry) and pass catcher (4.2 yards per target), but he has the skills to be a true three-down workhorse.

Oct 23, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) carries the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Devin Singletary joins the Texans after four years with the Bills (2019-22), where he never had fewer than 950 and more than 1,100 yards from scrimmage. With his size (5-foot-7 and 203 pounds), he’s built for more of a change-of-pace role, but Singletary has been more efficient (4.7 yards per carry, 5.0 yards per target) than Pierce throughout his career, and he might rotate in more than people expect.

Mike Boone is a 28-year-old journeyman who joins the Texans with just 662 yards and four touchdowns for his career, but he is capable of contributing on special teams as well as offense (5.2 yards per carry, 5.6 yards per target) — but he’s not a lock to beat out Dare Ogunbowale, who had eight special teams tackles for the Texans last year as well as 42 carries and 26 targets, mainly in the final month of the season in place of an injured Pierce.

Andrew Beck is a 2019 UDFA FB/H-back hybrid who lined up inline and in the slot in addition to the backfield over the past four years with the Broncos. He is unnotable as a lead blocker and has just 162 yards and a touchdown for his career. He’ll replace the injured Hairston, who had 19 yards on eight targets last year as a rookie. 

Projections as of Aug. 26.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Noah Brown
• WR Backups: Nathaniel Dell, John Metchie, 
• TE Starter: Dalton Schultz
• TE Backup: Teagan Quitoriano, Eric Tomlinson
• Borderline: WR Xavier Hutchinson and TE Brevin Jordan
• Notable Turnover: WRs Brandin Cooks (Cowboys), Chris Moore (Titans), Phillip Dorsett (Raiders) and Amari Rodgers (Colts), TEs Jordan Akins (Browns), O.J. Howard (free agent) and Pharaoh Brown (Colts)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Nico Collins is a 2021 third-rounder with great size (6-foot-4 and 215 pounds) and athleticism (4.45-second 40-yard dash, 6.79-second three-cone) and a sort of intriguing 54-727-3 receiving on 102 targets over his past 17 games. 

Robert Woods is a 31-year-old veteran now on his third team in three years. He has slot/perimeter versatility and put up 322-4,070-19 receiving and 62-439-4 rushing in his four halcyon seasons with the Rams (2017-20), but he tore his ACL in 2021 and disappointed with 5.8 yards per target last year with the Titans.

Noah Brown is a 2017 seventh-rounder who did little for the first four years of his career in Dallas (429 scoreless yards), but last year he broke out (relatively) with 43-555-3 receiving on 74 targets with the Cowboys. He has good size (6-foot-2 and 215 pounds) and can rotate through the slot and perimeter with Woods. I think he’ll start the season in three-wide sets and then eventually be replaced.

Tank Dell is a rookie third-rounder with Lilliputian size (5-foot-8 and 165 pounds) and modest speed (4.49-second 40-yard dash), but he is suddenly shifty and actually has the ability to play outside despite physical limitations.

Still, I’m skeptical about Dell’s ability to contribute as a rookie.

Eventually, I expect him to be overtaken on the depth chart by John Metchie, a 2022 second-round slot man who missed his rookie season with leukemia and tore his ACL in Dec. 2021 in his final college season.

He was productive as the No. 2 WR at Alabama (151-2,058-14 receiving in two years as a starter), but he might have more promise than production in the NFL.

Sims is a 26-year-old slot receiver who managed 61-575-5 receiving on 93 targets in his first two seasons with the Commanders (2019-20), but with the Steelers he had just 174 scoreless yards on 23 targets and 13 carries (2021-22). But he’s a good kick returner who has $500,000 in guarantees on deal, so he’s likely making the team. 

Xavier Hutchinson is a sixth-round rookie who started out at Blinn College, transferred to Iowa State as a top-10 junior college WR recruit and then played as the No. 1 WR for the Cyclones in each of his three seasons, culminating in a 107-1,171-6 receiving campaign as a senior. He’s big enough (6-foot-2 and 2013 pounds) and athletic enough (4.53-second 40-yard dash, 6.91-second three-cone) to have a shot at contributing eventually.  

Dalton Schultz — like Brown — joins the Texans this year after spending the previous five seasons in Dallas. As the No. 1 TE for the Cowboys, he put up 198-2,000-17 receiving on 282 targets since 2020.

An inline player with good run-blocking chops (a minimum 65.0 PFF grade over the past four years) Schultz is a three-down contributor who might lead the Texans in targets and receptions.

Teagan Quitoriano is a 2022 fifth-rounder who saw only 14 targets on 322 snaps last year, but he’s likely to play more this year without Jordan Akins, O.J. Howard and Pharaoh Brown on the roster. Tomlinson is a 31-year-old journeyman who played under TEs coach Jake Moreland last year. An inline blocking specialist, he’s likely to see action in heavy sets.

Brevin Jordan is a 2021 fifth-round move TE who flashed in college (73-1,071-9 receiving) but has missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury and has just 34-306-3 receiving on 5.5 yards per target in two NFL seasons.

If he’s to make the roster, it’s likely because the team decides to keep four TEs, not because he beats out any of the top three.

Projections as of Aug. 26.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Laremy Tunsil, LG Kenyon Green, C Juice Scruggs, RG Shaq Mason, RT Tytus Howard
• Backups: OT George Fant, OL Michael Deiter, C/G Jarrett Patterson, T/G Josh Jones
• Injured: C Scott Quessenberry (knee), OT Charlie Heck (foot) 
• Notable Turnover: RG A.J. Cann (free agent), OL Justin McCray (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Tunsil is a 29-year-old franchise blindside bookend who has made three Pro Bowls and allowed only six sacks since the Texans traded two first-rounders and a second-rounder (and a couple of players) to acquire him (and other considerations) from the Dolphins in 2019.

Green is a 2022 first-rounder who allowed a troublesome 47 pressures on 495 pass rushes last year.

Scruggs is a second-round rookie who will slide into the starting C role with Quessenberry tearing his ACL and MCL in practice. A two-year starter at Penn State, Scruggs profiles as more of a solid backup than a regular starter with his neutral skill set.

Mason is a 30-year-old unheralded vet who has been traded for almost nothing in each of the past two years and never made a Pro Bowl, but he has started every year of his career (2015-21 Patriots, 2022 Buccaneers) and is a strong two-phase player who hasn’t had a PFF grade lower than 67.5 after his rookie year. 

Howard is a 2019 first-rounder who had hand surgery at the beginning of August. He is uncertain for Week 1 but shouldn’t miss more than a month at the longest. Solid in pass protection (minimum PFF grade of 65.4 throughout his career), Howard is an inconsistent-at-best run blocker.

Fant played at RT with the starters in Week 2 of the preseason and will likely fill in for Howard if he’s unavailable, especially Heck (2020 fourth-rounder) is dealing with a foot injury and currently on PUP.

A 31-year-old backup who always seems to find his way into the lineup, Howard has 60 starts since his 2016 rookie year, and he was serviceable (if not good) for the 2020-22 Jets in his yearly swing-turned-starter role.

Deiter is a 2019 third-rounder who started 23 games at LT, LG and C in 2019-21 but played zero offensive snaps last year under new HC Mike McDaniel. A subpar performer, Deiter is valuable more for his versatility than his overall ability.

Patterson is a four-star sixth-round rookie who started four years for Notre Dame (34 starts at C, 12 at LG). He allowed zero sacks in college but has athletic limitations (sub-32-inch arms, 5.33-second 40-yard dash).

Jones is a 2020 third-rounder whom the Texans just recently acquired from the Cardinals for a swap of Day 3 picks. Over the past two years he has made 21 starts at LT, RT and RG), and last year — playing exclusively at LT — he did well (75.8 PFF grade). He adds quality OT depth to a line that could be without Howard and Heck to start the year.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Will Anderson, Jonathan Greenard
• EDGE Backups: Jerry Hughes, Jacob Martin, Dylan Horton, Chase Winovich
• DT Starters: Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins
• DT Backups: Roy Lopez, Hassan Ridgeway
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Rasheem Green (Bears), Ogbo Okoronkwo (Browns) and Mario Addison (free agent), DT Michael Dwumfour (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Anderson is the No. 3 pick of the 2023 draft. A three-year starter and unanimous two-time All-American at Alabama, he racked up 34.5 sacks and 58.5 tackles for loss in his college career. He might struggle in the NFL against power blockers given his size (6-foot-3 and 253 pounds), but Anderson is a high-IQ and -character player who should upgrade the DL instantly.

Greenard is a 2022 third-rounder who missed half of last year to injury but has 9.5 sacks in 20 games over the past two years. Hughes is a 35-year-old pass rush specialist who pretends the run game doesn’t exist, but he still gets after the QB. Last year in his first season with the Texans he racked up nine sacks. 

Martin is a 27-year-old prodigal who played with the Texans in 2019-21, vagabonded last year with the Jets and Broncos and then returned to Houston this offseason. He has never had more than four sacks in a season, but he’s decent in run defense (67.1 PFF grade in 2022).

Horton is a fourth-round rookie who broke out last year at TCU with 10.5 sacks and 15.0 tackles for loss. Winovich is a 2019 third-rounder whom Caserio drafted with the Patriots. He has done little since 2021 (two starts, one sack), but in his first two seasons, he racked up 11 sacks in New England. 

Collins is a 28-year-old veteran who joined the Texans two years ago. He’s an average-at-best run defender, but he has 68 pressures since 2021. Rankins joins the team this year after seven seasons with the Saints (2016-20) and Jets (2021-22). He’s a solid two-phase player who can man the A and B gaps.

Lopez is a 2021 sixth-rounder with 1,059 snaps of underwhelming play (55.7 and 53.1 PFF grades). Ridgeway is an offseason addition who has been a supplementary member of some strong defensive fronts over the past five years (2018 Colts, 2019-21 Eagles, 2022 49ers). He does nothing exceptionally or poorly.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Christian Harris, Denzel Perryman
• Backups: Christian Kirksey, Cory Littleton, Henry To’oTo’o, Blake Cashman
• Notable Turnover: Kamu Grugier-Hill (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Harris is a 2022 third-rounder who might’ve been the worst starting LB in the NFL last year (28.3 PFF grade). He — the Texans hope — will be counterbalanced by their depth at the position, and he could eventually find himself on the bench.

Perryman is a 30-year-old offseason addition who made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and had a 74.2 PFF grade last year. 

Kirksey is a 30-year-old veteran who joined the team in 2021 and has started 19 games for the Texans over the past two years but hasn’t had a PFF grade of 60 since 2017. Littleton is a 29-year-old now on his third team in three years. He played alongside Perryman on the Raiders in 2021, was strong in coverage and run defense with the Panthers last year and is a consistent special teams contributor. 

To’oTo’o is a four-star fifth-round rookie who started all four years of college (2019-20 Tennessee, 2021-22 Alabama) and was especially strong in his final two seasons (205 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks), but his athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 227 pounds) will likely limit him in coverage and on outside runs.

Cashman is a 2019 fifth-rounder who played just 149 defensive snaps last year in his first season with the Texans, but he was a special teams ace (eight tackles).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Derek Stingley Steven Nelson, Desmond King
• CB Backups: Shaquill Griffin, Tavierre Thomas
• S Starters: Jimmie Ward, Jalen Pitre
• S Backups: Eric Murray, M.J. Stewart
• Notable Turnover: S Jonathan Owens (Packers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Stingley is the No. 3 pick of the 2022 draft. The No. 1 CB in his recruitment class, he snagged six interceptions for the 2019 LSU championship team as an All-American 18-year-old true freshman — but then he played only 10 games in the following two seasons because of injuries.

He has good athleticism (4.38-second 40-yard dash) but might lack the size (6-foot and 190 pounds) to man up with prototypical perimeter receivers, and as a 21-year-old rookie, he was exposed last year (49.9 PFF coverage grade). He’s by no means a bust (yet), but he needs to show marked improvement this season.

Nelson is a 30-year-old journeyman who has started 99 games since 2016 but nevertheless played on four teams across the past half-decade. Last year with the Texans he held pass catchers to 6.7 yards per target.

King is a 2017 fifth-rounder who was a unanimous All-American Jim Thorpe Award winner in college, but he fell in the draft because of his slow speed (4.60-second 40-yard dash). His agility (6.67-second three-cone), however, made him ideally suited for the slot, where he dominated early in his career with the Chargers, earning a first-team All-Pro designation in 2018.

The following year, though, he massively fell off (87.0% completion rate, 10.3 yards per target), and the Chargers traded him midseason in 2020 to the Titans, who let him walk in free agency. He was terrible for the Texans in 2021 (47.7 PFF coverage grade), but he had something of a bounce-back campaign last year (71.8 PFF coverage). It’s impossible to know which version of King we’ll get in 2023.

Griffin — a six-year starter with the Seahawks (2017-20) and Jaguars (2021-22) — provides excellent depth and gives the Texans some optionality: If Stingley underperforms, he could replace him in the lineup, or if King disappoints then he could play on the perimeter and Nelson could slide to the slot, where he played early in his career. A 2019 Pro Bowler, Griffin is a physical coverage man with great speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash).

Thomas is a 2018 UDFA who was bad at best in his first three years with the Browns, but he has been a slot dominator in his two seasons with the Texans (59.7% completion rate, 4.1 yards per target). I don’t know why he’s not competing for the starting slot job.

Ward is a 2014 first-rounder who followed Ryans to Houston this year after playing his entire career with the 49ers. A versatile DB who can play deep, in the box, on the perimeter and in the slot, he is a big upgrade for this unit. In fact, there’s a chance he might be the de facto slot corner for the Texans this year — he was for the 49ers last year. In his past four seasons, he hasn’t had a PFF grade lower than 73.5.

Pitre is a 2022 second-rounder who was strong in coverage last year (five interceptions, 65.8 PFF grade) but abysmal in run defense (44.2 PFF grade). Every down he’s in the box is an opportunity for exploitation.

Murray and Stewart are special teams aces who combined to lead the team in snaps (789) and tackles (18) last year. Murray played with Nelson on the 2016-18 Chiefs and Thomas on the 2019 Browns before joining the Texans in 2020.

Despite making 25 starts for the team, he has been a large liability over the past three years (no PFF coverage grade higher than 58.5). Stewart played with Thomas on the 2020 Browns. He played little on defense last year (178 snaps) but was solid (70.1 PFF grade).

Specialists

• Kicker: Ka'imi Fairbairn
• Punter: Cameron Johnston
• Holder: Cameron Johnston
• Long Snapper: Jon Weeks
• Kick Returner: Steven Sims
• Punt Returner: Desmond King
• Notable Turnover: KR Tremon Smith (Broncos)

Fairburn entered the NFL in 2016 as an All-American Lou Groza Award winner and has been with the Texans ever since. While he has been good (not great) to date, he is coming off the best season of his career with a 93.5% field goal rate.

Johnston is a 31-year-old Aussie who has been a top-10 punter with 47.4 yards per attempt and 42.0% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line since joining the Texans in 2021. Weeks has been long snapping for the Texans since 2010, and he made the Pro Bowl in 2015. For the Texans community, he’s the Giver.

Sims has 24.9 yards per kick return for his career and last year averaged 25.5. King has 9.1 yards per punt return for his career, and last year he averaged 9.4. Both are above-average return men.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Texans’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 7
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 11-13
• Opponents: vs. ARI, vs. JAX, vs. DEN

The Texans have a top-eight schedule in easiness based on the market win totals of their opponents, and it also has some situationally friendly spots. For instance, they’re one of just four teams with no three-of-four away stretches, and in the second half of the season, they have a three-game homestand, which catches my eye.

This could be a season in which wins are hard to come by, but if the Texans are to win they’ll likely do so in advantageous circumstances — such as a three-game homestand. In Week 11, they host the Cardinals, who could be without QB Kyler Murray and in full-blown tank mode.

In Week 12, they get the Jaguars in a rematch, and (almost) anything can happen in a home division. And then in Week 13 they have the Broncos, who could be bad if QB Russell Wilson is similar to the 2022 version of himself.

At the same time, the Cardinals could have Murray back, the Jaguars could be pushing to repeat as division champions, and the Broncos could be dangerous with HC Sean Payton.

If the Texans can get a win — maybe even two wins? — in this homestand, then that will be an overwhelmingly positive sign for their ability to add more victories in the final month of the season. But if the Texans go 0-3 in this friendly stretch, it’s hard to see where they’ll find success.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Texans.

• GM Nick Caserio gets into a power struggle with his coach after a 22-point Week 3 road loss to the Jaguars, and the tension ultimately reaches a breaking point when…
• HC DeMeco Ryans is fired following a demoralizing 27-point Week 16 home loss.
• OC Bobby Slowik proves that not every Shanahan acolyte can run the Shanahan scheme.
• DC Matt Burke adulterates Ryans’ defense.
• QB C.J. Stroud plays like a rookie and fails to develop throughout the season because he’s under pressure so frequently.
• RB Dameon Pierce dominates backfield usage but diminishes in efficiency.
• WR Nico Collins doesn’t become a No. 1 pass catcher.
• TE Dalton Schultz becomes a walking commercial for the metroplex area: “What happens in Dallas stays in Dallas.”
• LG Kenyon Green and C Juice Scruggs form a massively exploitable interior duo who allow defenses to pressure Stroud at will.
• EDGE Will Anderson plays well… but not well enough to warrant the forfeiture of three top-100 selections — and EDGE Jerry Hughes looks like a 35-year-old.
• LB Christian Harris is routinely attacked on the ground and in the air for chunk plays — and yet the Texans never bench him.
• CB Derek Stingley underwhelms in the first half of the season before missing the second half to injury, and CB Desmond King reverts back to his 2019-21 form.
• Texans finish with a league-worst record of 2-15 — the first team in NFL history to do so — and then they fire Caserio for trading away the No. 1 pick and hire GM Scott Pioli and HC Joe Judge.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Texans.

• GM Nick Caserio avoids making any more borderline-at-best trades.
• HC DeMeco Ryans drives the Texans as double-digit underdogs to a Week 1 road tie against the Ravens and then states in the postgame press conference that he’s pleased with the team’s effort but upset that some players celebrated after the game: “I’ll let them know when it’s time to party, and we’re not there yet.”
• OC Bobby Slowik innovates on the Shanahan scheme and makes life easy on his young passer.
• DC Matt Burke implements Ryans’ defense seamlessly.
• QB C.J. Stroud operates Slowik’s system efficiently and gradually develops the ability throughout the season to make some plays out of structure.
• RB Dameon Pierce makes the Pro Bowl.
• WR Nico Collins falls just short of 1,000 yards receiving.
• TE Dalton Schultz does what he does.
• LG Kenyon Green plays like a veteran first-rounder under the tutelage of new OL coach Chris Strausser, and C Juice Scruggs upgrades the pivot.
• EDGE Will Anderson makes Texans fans obnoxiously delirious by winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, and EDGE Jerry Hughes ties his career high with 10 sacks. 
• LB Christian Harris is benched in the middle of Week 3, and he never makes his way back to the starting lineup.
• CB Derek Stingley progresses into a potential shutdown defender, and CB Desmond King maintains his 2022 form.
• Texans miss the playoffs but win their final three games to go 9-7-1, which results in Ryans receiving Coach of the Year.

In-season angles

I view the Texans as a moderate “bet against” team, especially when they are facing teams who are a clear tier above them.

I think that Ryans as a coach will be similar to Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Mike Vrabel, who are routinely able to trade punches with opponents a weight class above them, but right now the Texans — especially on offense — aren’t good enough to take body blows from teams that significantly outclass them.

It feels stupidly square to say something like, “The Texans could be overvalued as big underdogs” — but that could be the case.

Offseason market to exploit

I’m not recommending that anyone actually bet the Texans at -700 (DraftKings) to miss the playoffs, but I think that number should be -1000.

And of the team futures bets that’s the only one I think offers some theoretical value.

I do, though, see some (possible) value in the awards market.

DeMeco Ryans to win Coach of the Year (+2500, BetMGM)

Let me show you some numbers, all of which are from BetMGM.

• Texans to Win AFC South: +1100
• Texans to Make Playoffs: +550
• Texans to Get Wild Card: +1600

In my thinking, all of these bets essentially equate to the same thing: At least nine wins, probably 10.

Last year, first-year HC Brian Daboll took the Giants from 4-13 to 9-7-1 and the postseason. He won Coach of the Year.

Ryans is a respected first-year HC. He won Assistant Coach of the Year just last season. He’s taking over a team that has fired HCs in back-to-back years and is coming off a 3-13-1 campaign.

If Ryans gets this team to the playoffs (either as a division winner or wild card) it will be hard for him not to win Coach of the Year.

I’m not bullish on the Texans, but I could be wrong, and if I’m wrong — and if the current odds for AFC South, playoffs, and wild card are reasonable — then a position on Ryans is probably the best way to approach the market.  

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