2023 Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Last year the Indianapolis Colts entered the season hoping to improve upon their 2021 record of 9-8 and expecting Matt Ryan to upgrade their QB situation. 

Hopes dashed, expectations destroyed, the Colts endured a chaos-filled, owner-meddling campaign that witnessed the team start 3-5-1, prematurely fire HC Frank Reich and preposterously hire interim HC Jeff Saturday — a beloved and honored former Colts lineman with no NFL or college coaching experience — who somehow won his first game and then lost every subsequent contest, including an ignominious 39-36 Week 15 overtime defeat in which the fresh-from-the-bye Colts set the all-time record for largest blown lead in NFL history (33-0 at halftime).

Needless to say, Saturday — whom owner Jim Irsay initially wanted to hire as the permanent (not interim) HC — is no longer with the organization. Instead, the team has Shane Steichen, as well as rookie QB Anthony Richardson, a toolsy prospect the Colts selected with the No. 4 overall pick that Saturday gifted them with his string of losses.

This year, the Colts hope to improve upon their 2022 record of 4-12-1 record and expect Richardson to upgrade their QB situation. Sound familiar?

In this 2023 Colts preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Colts preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 19. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 19. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 19.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 19.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 19.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Chris Ballard
• Head Coach: Shane Steichen
• Team Power Rating: -4.25
• Team Power Ranking: No. 29
• Coach Ranking: No. 28

Ballard joined the Colts as GM in 2017 and is now on his third HC (and the second of his choosing… although it’s fair to wonder how much influence Ballard actually has in high-level hiring decisions). For Ballard’s sake, Steichen needs to have success with the Colts. If he doesn’t, the GM won’t get the opportunity to hire yet another HC.

A WRs and secondary coach and then DC at Texas A&M-Kingsville (1994-99), Ballard joined the Bears as a scout in 2001 and then moved up to director of pro scouting in Chicago (2012) before doing four years in Kansas City (2013-14 director of player personnel, 2015-16 director of football operations) on his way to Indianapolis.

I’m not sure if Ballard is a good GM. He won Executive of the Year in 2018 and is probably a decent talent evaluator. His teams (Bears, Chiefs, Colts) have a history of finding good players in the draft. I don’t think it’s great process to take interior OLs, off-ball LBs and RBs in the early rounds, but the Colts have done well in adding Quenton Nelson, Shaquille Leonard and Jonathan Taylor (among others) to the team since 2017.

And in the wake of franchise QB Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement shortly before the 2019 season, Ballard likely made the best of a bad situation by signing QBs Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz in 2020-21 and getting the team to winning records in both years (11-5, 9-8).

Of course, his inability to find better solutions than Rivers and Wentz eventually led to the 2023 trade for Ryan and the chaos that ensued. Ballard did well enough in the short term to patch over his QB problem with Rivers and Wentz, but he created bigger and longer-term issues for himself by bringing in those particular players.

That said, I think Ballard handled the 2023 draft masterfully. Since Luck’s retirement, this was Ballard’s first time as GM with a pick high enough (No. 4) to guarantee that he could leave Round 1 with a top-of-the-board QB. And instead of panicking and trading up to No. 1 (like the Panthers) or overthinking his decision and taking a defensive player in the top five (like the Texans), he stayed put, let the draft fall to him and then took the QB with perhaps the highest upside in the class.

Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) reacts to a play against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

If Richardson hits — and I’m optimistic that he will, eventually — Ballard will deserve a lot of the credit for selecting him.

But Ballard — as a manager, as someone who needs to navigate people and anticipate and prevent potential problems — has had a questionable Colts tenure.

In 2017, Ballard kneecapped HC Chuck Pagano by initiating a roster rebuild and didn’t adequately plan for the possibility that Luck might not be ready to play by Week 1 after his offseason shoulder surgery. As it turns out, Luck didn’t play at all in 2017, and the Colts were stuck with QB Jacoby Brissett, whom the team acquired via trade just days before the season started.

In 2018, Ballard “hired” Patriots OC Josh McDaniels to replace Pagano as HC. The Colts announced that they had agreed to terms with him, and their content wing even put out a puff piece on McDaniels as the new HC. His introductory press conference was scheduled — and then McDaniels, who hadn’t said anything publicly about accepting the job, notified the Colts that he planned to stay in New England.

Say whatever you want about McDaniels in this situation — but Ballard didn’t close the deal, and he didn’t get McDaniels’ signature on the contract before the team made its announcements. That’s 100% on him. (For what it’s worth, the guy he ended up hiring — Reich — was probably better than McDaniels would’ve been.)

In 2019, Ballard was utterly unprepared for Luck’s retirement. On the one hand, it was a surprise. On the other hand, if there’s one person in the world who should never be surprised about anything his star QB does, it’s the GM. That Ballard was blindsided indicates that he wasn’t cognizant of what Luck was thinking and wasn’t communicating with Luck the way that he should’ve been — and he must’ve been blindsided, because that’s the only explanation for why the team still had Jacoby Brissett (instead of a legitimate starter-level QB) as the backup.

Luck’s decision put the team in a tough spot, but it was Ballard’s job to make sure the team wouldn’t be put in that position.

In 2020-21, Ballard made the aforementioned shortsighted decisions to bring in Rivers and Wentz — and then in 2022 he lost control of the front office and watched as Irsay did his best Jerry Jones impersonation.

The manner in which the season unfolded — the disorganized benching of Matt Ryan, the scapegoat firing of OC Marcus Brady, the public vote of confidence in Reich shortly followed by his dismissal, the clownlike hiring of Saturday and Irsay’s obstinate pigheadedness in saying that Saturday was a strong candidate to be the permanent HC — was all borderline disgraceful. And maybe most of that was Irsay’s fault… but a big part of the GM’s job is managing the owner. Last year Ballard failed to rein Irsay in.

As a scout, Ballard is probably fine. As an organizational leader, Ballard has made more than a few big mistakes. 

But I don’t think the hiring of Steichen will be one of them. And maybe that’s because Steichen is essentially Reich 2.0 — and that shouldn’t be too surprising, given that Steichen worked under Reich as a quality control coach on the 2014-15 Chargers, where Reich was OC.

Look at the trajectories of their careers.

Reich was the Chargers QBs coach, and then he was promoted to OC thanks to his good work with Rivers. After that, he was the Eagles OC for two years, and in that role he developed a young QB into an MVP candidate and oversaw an offense that propelled the team to the Super Bowl, helped him earn a reputation as an offensive innovator and QB whisperer and secure the Colts HC job. 

Steichen was the Chargers QBs coach, and then he was promoted to OC thanks to his good work with Rivers. After that, he was the Eagles OC for two years, and in that role he developed a young QB into an MVP candidate and oversaw an offense that propelled the team to the Super Bowl, helped him earn a reputation as an offensive innovator and QB whisperer and secure the Colts HC job.

These guys are the NFL HC equivalent of the Spider-Man-pointing meme.

And I think it makes sense that the Colts hired Steichen.

1. Of the candidates available, he was probably the best.
2. If the Colts liked Reich enough to hire him in 2018, then they’d probably like Steichen too. I guess Irsay and Ballard have a type.

Minus 2022, the Reich era in Indianapolis was a success — and the Colts might’ve been premature in firing him. In hiring Steichen, the Colts give themselves another bite at a Reich-like HC apple.

With Steichen as his QBs coach, Rivers passed for 17,824 yards and 116 touchdowns to 63 interceptions with 7.7 adjusted yards per attempt in his final four seasons with the Chargers at the ages of 35-38.

In his first season as the full-time Chargers OC, he managed an offense that was top-10 in yards despite having a rookie QB in Justin Herbert. And under Steichen, Herbert was the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

And then as the Eagles OC, Steichen had an offense that was top-12 in scoring in both seasons (No. 3 last year), and he helped QB Jalen Hurts develop into maybe the league’s best run-leaning dual-threat player.

Given the offensive success he has had in general and the developmental success he has had in particular with Herbert and Hurts — especially Hurts, who is highly comparable to Richardson — Steichen seems likely to have success with the Colts… or at the very least have a decent offense and help Richardson become a good NFL QB, which is the most important part of Steichen’s job. But that might not happen in 2023.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter
• Offensive Playcaller: Shane Steichen
• OL Coach: Tony Sparano
• QBs Coach: Cam Turner
• RBs Coach: DeAndre Smith
• WRs Coach: Reggie Wayne
• TEs Coach: Tom Manning
• Notable Turnover: Playcaller Frank Reich (Panthers), OC Marcus Brady (Eagles), Interim OC Parks Frazier (Panthers), OL Coach Chris Strausser (Texans), QBs Coach Scott Milanovich (Tiger-Cats, CFL), RBs Coach Scottie Montgomery, TEs Coach Kevin Mawae (Lipscomb Academy)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Cooter is a “Peyton Manning guy” who got his NFL start with the Colts, and that probably means something to the organization. He was a backup QB at Tennessee (Peyton Manning’s alma mater) a few years after Manning played there (2002-06), a fact that he leveraged into various assistant positions with the 2009-11 Colts after he served as a 2007-08 Tennessee graduate assistant.

With a new coaching staff in Indianapolis in 2012, Cooter left the Colts and did a one-year stint with the Chiefs as a quality control coach before Manning petitioned for him to get a job with the 2013 Broncos as his offensive assistant, after which Cooter reunited with former Colts HC Jim Caldwell on the Lions, where he served first as the QBs coach (2014-15) and then OC (2015-18), in which position he survived (at least initially) the transition from Caldwell to new Lions HC Matt Patricia in 2018. 

In need of a job, Cooter reunited with new Jets HC Adam Gase (his 2013 Broncos OC) and served as RBs coach before bottoming out as a consultant for the 2021 Eagles, where he and Steichen first worked together.

And now, after a rehabilitation year as the 2022 Jaguars passing game coordinator — in which role he organized the league’s No. 10 aerial attack — he reunites with Steichen and returns to Indianapolis as Colts OC.

Given Cooter’s familiarity with the HC, history with the organization, stamp of approval from Manning and previous developmental/curative work with QBs Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence, he’s likely to be an asset.

Sparano is the son of longtime NFL coach and fan favorite Tony Sparano, who unleashed the wildcat rushing attack on the league in 2008. He joins the Colts after spending the previous six years as an assistant OL coach (2017-20 Jaguars, 2021 Panthers, 2022 Giants), before which he worked for his father and then HC Rex Ryan as a quality control coach for the 2011 Dolphins, intern/assistant for the 2012-14 Jets and TEs coach for the 2015-16 Bills.

Turner is the son of Ron Turner, who worked previously with Cooter on the 2010-11 Colts first as the WRs coach and then the QBs coach. Yes, he has the same job his father once had. It’s almost as if his last name matters. (Turner is also the nephew of longtime NFL coach Norv Turner.)

He joins the Colts this year after previous stints with the 2015-17 Panthers (assistant WRs coach, assistant QBs coach) and 2018-22 Cardinals (offensive assistant, assistant QBs coach, QBs coach, co-pass game coordinator). His previous experience with dual-threat QBs Cam Newton and Kyler Murray should help him develop Richardson.

Smith is a longtime and respected college RBs coach who made the jump to the NFL last year with the Giants, where he worked on the same staff with Sparano. After his 2022 success with RB Saquon Barkley, the Colts hope that Smith can help RB Jonathan Taylor return to form in 2023.

Wayne was a six-time Pro Bowl WR for the 2001-14 Colts. A member of the team’s Ring of Honor and the pass-catching bridge between the Manning and Luck eras, he returned to the team last year as the WRs coach and is the lone position coach holdover from last year’s offensive staff. Of course he is.

Manning is a guy with the last name “Manning.” He’s (he claims) not related to Peyton Manning — but with his last name he was bound to end up working for the Colts at some point, especially since he already was their TEs coach in 2018, when he mentored Eric Ebron to his one Pro Bowl season under then-OC Nick Sirianni, who worked with Steichen on the 2014-17 Chargers and the 2021-22 Eagles.

Aside from his one previous season with the Colts, Manning has been a college coach since 2007, most recently with Iowa State, where he was the OC for six years and helped develop QB Brock Purdy, RBs David Montgomery and Breece Hall, and WR Allen Lazard.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Gus Bradley
• DL Coach: Nate Ollie
• LBs Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Richard Smith
• DBs Coach: Ron Milus
• Notable Turnover: Senior Defensive Assistant John Fox (Lions)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Bradley joined the Colts last year as DC, and Steichen chose to retain him and his staff — including lower-level assistants — for the 2023 season. (The only defensive departure is Fox, who was a consigliere, not a position coach.) Steichen’s decision to keep Bradley likely had more to do with familiarity (they worked together on the 2017-20 Chargers) and a desire to maintain organizational continuity than with outright merit, because Bradley hasn’t had good defensive results in years.

But Bradley has decades of experience and has been a DC or HC in the NFL each year since 2009. Even if his defense isn’t great, Bradley should be able to help Steichen learn how to be an NFL HC while coordinating a unit that isn’t overly subpar.

Bradley started out as a college coach and did a decade at North Dakota State (assistant HC, DC, LBs coach) before serving three years under DC Monte Kiffin on the 2006-08 Buccaneers as a quality control assistant and then LBs coach.

In 2009 he joined the Seahawks as DC under HC Jim Mora, and then he survived the transition in 2010 to HC Pete Carroll, who had previously worked with Kiffin for 10 years in the college ranks (1977 Arkansas, 1980-82 NC State) and then NFL (1984 Bills, 1986-89 Vikings, 1990 Jets).

With Carroll, Bradley shifted from the Tampa-2 to Cover 3 defense that powered the team’s success in the first half of the 2010s, and together they transformed the unit that was No. 25 in scoring three seasons in a row (the year before Bradley arrived and his first two years with the team) into one that ranked No. 7 in 2011 and then No. 1 in 2012 as well as the three seasons after that.

With this success, Bradley got the vacant Jaguars HC job in 2013 — but his scheme did not carry over well to Jacksonville, where his defense never ranked better than No. 25 in scoring in four years… although his unit was No. 6 in yardage in his final 2016 season, and he arguably laid the foundation for the short-lived “Sacksonville” defense, which was Nos. 2 and 4 in scoring in 2017-18 before collapsing in 2019.

After his time in Jacksonville, Bradley migrated west as the Chargers DC, where he first worked with Steichen, who eventually ascended to the role of Chargers OC. For their final 1.5 years together in L.A., Steichen ran the offense, Bradley ran the defense and HC Anthony Lynn tried to look busy. Minus Lynn (and plus Cooter), Steichen and Bradley will likely have a similar arrangement in Indianapolis.

When Bradley joined the Chargers, he immediately looked like a miracle worker, taking a defense that was No. 29 the year before in scoring to No. 3. After that, however, he looked a little less saintly each season, as his unit dropped to Nos. 8, 14 and finally 23 in his final Chargers campaign. 

With the Raiders in 2021, he took a defense that was No. 25 in yards and made it No. 14. And with the Colts last year, he generally maintained the defense (No. 16 in yards in 2021, No. 15 in 2022) despite getting no support from the offense and being without three-time first-team All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard for almost the entire year.

I don’t know if Bradley is actually a good DC or not. But I think it’s likely his defense won’t be horrible in 2023, and that’s good enough for now. It helps that he returns all his position coaches and position assistants.

Ollie joined the Colts last year after three years as an NFL assistant DL coach (2019-20 Eagles, 2021 Jets) and four years in the college ranks (2015-17 Tennessee, 2018 Eastern Kentucky).

Smith has been an NFL coach each year since 1988 and was the DC for the 2005 Dolphins, 2006-08 Texans and 2015-16 Falcons, where he worked with Dan Quinn — a Bradley lieutenant with the Seahawks. After his dismissal from the Falcons as the “28-3” scapegoat, Smith joined the Chargers as Bradley’s LBs coach in 2017 and has been with him ever since.

Milus played CB at the University of Washington (1982-85) and then coached there for eight years (1991-98) before doing a year at Texas A&M (1999) on his way to the NFL, where he has been coaching secondaries every season since 2000.

He and Smith are a hand-in-the-glove Back Seven coaching pairing, having worked together as an LBs/DBs tandem on the 2009-10 Panthers, 2011-12 Broncos, 2017-20 Chargers, 2021 Raiders and 2022 Colts. Like Smith, Milus has worked with Bradley every season since 2017. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Brian Mason
• Assistant Special Teams Coach: Joe Hastings
• Notable Turnover: ST Coordinator Raymond Ventrone (Browns)

Mason is a longtime college coach — most recently the ST coordinator for Cincinnati (2018-21) and Notre Dame (2022) — who is making the leap to the NFL this season.

Hastings is a retired NFL WR who played primarily on special teams for three years before transitioning to personnel (2014 Eagles) and then college coaching. He joined the Colts in 2021 as assistant ST coach.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Anthony Richardson
• Backups: Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger
• Notable Turnover: QBs Matt Ryan (free agent, unofficially retired) and Nick Foles (free agent, probably de facto retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Anthony Richardson is the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft and the team’s hopeful franchise QB. A potential-laden but raw four-star recruit entering Florida, Richardson didn’t start until his junior season, and he had an uneven campaign (53.8% completion rate, 7.6 adjusted yards per attempt) — but he flashed his dual-threat ability (103-654-9 rushing, including sacks) and strong arm, and at the combine he proved himself to be one of the most athletic QB prospects the NFL has even seen (4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds).

He turned just 21 years old in May and is likely to be volatile throughout his rookie season, but he has the upside to develop into a Josh Allen-esque player.

Gardner Minshew is a 2019 sixth-rounder with 24 NFL starts, two years with Steichen on the 2021-22 Eagles, experience mentoring a younger Richardson-like player in Jalen Hurts and no delusion that he can become the long-term No. 1 QB in Indianapolis.

With a 62.5% completion rate and 7.8 AY/A in his two Eagles seasons, Minshew is good enough to give the Colts a chance to win if he needs to start. Ehlinger is a 2021 sixth-rounder who went 0-3 as a starter last year and had a painful 4.9 AY/A.

Projections as of Aug. 20.

Running Backs

• Starter: Jonathan Taylor
• Backups: Zack Moss, Evan Hull, Deon Jackson
• Borderline: Kenyan Drake
• Notable Turnover: Nyheim Hines (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Jonathan Taylor is a 2020 second-rounder who put up 3,639 yards and 32 touchdowns from scrimmage in his first two seasons — he was a first-team All-Pro in 2021 — but he limped to a 1,004-4 performance last year after missing six games with multiple ankle injuries.

He has an elite athletic profile (4.39-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10 and 226 pounds), but he’s still rehabbing from his offseason ankle injury and feuding with the team. I expect him ultimately to be activated from PUP and minorly placated by the team with some extra money, but he might be less than 100% healthy to start the year and could be less willing than he was previously to play through minor injuries or sacrifice his body for extra yardage.

Zack Moss is a 2020 third-rounder whom the Colts acquired last year in exchange for Nyheim Hines. He did well last year in his three end-of-season starts in place of Taylor (265 yards, one touchdown on 45 carries, four targets) and can function as a reliable (if unexciting) change-of-pace option, but he suffered a broken arm in late July and is uncertain to be ready for Week 1.

Evan Hull is a fifth-round rookie with a great physical profile (4.47-second 40-yard dash, 6.90-second three-cone at 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds) and a three-down skill set (417-1,922-12 rushing, 88-810-4 receiving in final two seasons). 

Deon Jackson is a 2021 UDFA who underwhelms as a runner (3.3 yards per carry for career) but last year impressed as a pass catcher (30-209-1 receiving on 34 targets) and contributed on special teams.

Projections as of Aug. 20.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
• WR Backups: Isaiah McKenzie, Breshad Perriman, Mike Strachan
• TE Starter: Kylen Granson
• TE Backup: Jelani Woods, Mo Alie-Cox, Will Mallory
• Injured: Ashton Dulin (knee)
• Borderline: WR James Washington
• Notable Turnover: WR Parris Campbell (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Michael Pittman is a 2020 second-rounder with 2,007 yards and 10 touchdowns receiving over the past two seasons and 11-100-0 rushing for his career. He has great size (6-foot-4 and 223 pounds) and athleticism (4.52-second 40-yard dash, 6.96-second three-cone) and profiles as a No. 1 WR but hasn’t been able to break into the Pro Bowl ranks yet.

Alec Pierce is a 2022 second-rounder who feels like a smaller (6-foot-3 and 211 pounds), faster (4.41-second 40-yard dash) and more downfield version of Pittman (11.7-yard average depth of target vs. 6.9 for Pittman last year).

Josh Downs is a four-star third-round rookie who will play primarily in the slot because of his size (5-foot-9 and 171 pounds). He was productive in his final two seasons at North Carolina (195-2,364-19 receiving) and is competing for the No. 3 WR role with Isaiah McKenzie, who started Week 1 of the preseason but played behind Downs in Week 2.

A 28-year-old veteran on a one-year deal, McKenzie is a somewhat generic Tavon Austin-esque “offensive weapon” who had a career-high 478 yards and five touchdowns on 65 targets, 42 receptions and nine carries last year for the Bills.

Breshad Perriman is a 29-year-old journeyman who was terrible last year (47.4% catch rate, 5.8 yards per target), but in the previous four seasons, he was a serviceable situational deep threat (54.1% catch rate, 9.6 yards per target). 

Mike Strachan is a small-school 2021 seventh-rounder who balled out in his final college season (78-1,319-19 receiving) and impressed at the combine (4.54-second 40-yard dash, 6.96-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 226 pounds) but has just 85 yards in two years and doesn’t play on special teams.

Because of the recent season-ending injury to Ashton Dulin (a 2021 second-team All-Pro special teams ace with 8.7 yards per target for his career), Strachan now has a much better chance to make the team, but he’ll need to beat out James Washington, a 27-year-old veteran signed in the wake of Dulin’s injury.

Although he played just 15 snaps for the Cowboys last year, Washington has inside/outside versatility, 25 NFL starts and an acceptable 7.4 yards per target for his career.

Kylen Granson is a 2021 fourth-rounder who lines up all over the formation (inline, slot, perimeter, backfield). A WR-to-TE convert, he put up 129-1,879-16 receiving and 13-103-0 rushing as the No. 2 WR at Rice as a true freshman and sophomore and then the No. 2 pass catcher at SMU as a do-it-all TE/H-back. He did nothing special last year (31-302-0 receiving, 7.6 yards per target), but he played with the starters in Week 1 of the preseason and could see more offensive snaps this year than Jelani Woods and Mo Alie-Cox, even though I expect Woods to outproduce him and all three to play in a rotation.

Woods is a 2022 third-rounder who entered college as a three-star QB recruit, transitioned to TE at Oklahoma State and then broke out in his final season with 44-598-8 receiving after transferring to Virginia.

Woods is still incredibly raw at the position, but he tied Granson in targets last year (40), outproduced him (312 yards vs. 302) and outscored him (three touchdowns vs. zero), thanks to his phenomenal athleticism.

Alie-Cox is a college basketball player who signed with the Colts in 2017 as a UDFA and has played regularly as a rotational contributor since 2018. He’s an explosive receiver with 8.3 yards per target and eight touchdowns on 18 red-zone targets over the past three years.

Will Mallory is a fifth-round rookie who led Miami (FL) with 42 receptions and 538 yards receiving last year and exhibited excellent athleticism at the combine (4.54-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds). He could make the roster as a move TE.

Projections as of Aug. 20.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Bernhard Raimann, LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, RG Will Fries, RT Braden Smith
• Backups: OT Blake Freeland, G/T Dan Skipper, C/G Danny Pinter, OG Emil Ekiyor 
• Injured: OT Jake Witt
• Notable Turnover: T/G Matt Pryor (49ers) and OT Dennis Kelly (Eagles)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Raimann is a 2022 third-rounder who anchors an OL that has a wide range of outcomes, was less than the sum of its parts last year and didn’t make any personnel upgrades this offseason. As a rookie, he started 11 games and showed promise (73.3 PFF grade), but he also allowed too many sacks (seven).

Nelson is a 2018 first-rounder who has made the Pro Bowl every season. He’s a potential Hall of Famer — but last year he had a career-high five sacks, a career-worst 68.4 PFF grade and a career-first absence on the league’s All-Pro first and second teams. There’s a chance that he is now merely good instead of great.

Kelly is a 2016 first-rounder who has started every year for the Colts since his rookie season and who made the Pro Bowl in each of the 2019-21 campaigns — but not in 2022. Last year, Kelly — like Nelson — allowed a career-high five sacks.

Fries is the clear weak link in the OL chain. A 2021 seventh-rounder, he has PFF grades of 54.8 and 58.4 over the past two years. Smith is a 2018 second-rounder whose high floor buckled a little bit last season under the weight of… you guessed it… a career-high seven sacks.

Freeland is a fourth-round rookie with elite traits (4.98-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-8 and 302 pounds), four years of starting experience and LT/RT versatility, but he’s more of a high-effort backup than potential future starter.

Skipper is a 2017 UDFA who joins the Colts after playing a career-high 387 snaps last year for the Lions and having a career-worst 43.9 PFF grade. Pinter is a 2020 fifth-rounder who allowed nine pressures and three sacks in his four games as a primary lineman last season.

Ekiyor is a rookie UDFA who has an amplified chance of making the roster since Witt (seventh-round rookie) suffered a season-ending hip injury in training camp. A four-star three-year RG starter at Alabama, Ekiyor lacks range as a blocker but has the technique and consistency to develop into an NFL contributor.  

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam
• EDGE Backups: Tyquan Lewis, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Leo
• DT Starters: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart
• DT Backups: Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Adebawore
• Injured: EDGE Genard Avery (knee)
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Yannick Ngakoue (Bears), Ifeadi Odenigbo (Jets) and Ben Banogu (Cowboys), DT Byron Cowart (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

Paye is a 2021 first-rounder who has an OK-ish 10 sacks in his first two years but is yet to translate his elite athleticism (4.57-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 272 pounds) into commensurate production. Ebukam is a high-floor/low-ceiling 28-year-old veteran who joins the Colts this season after six years with the Rams (2017-20) and 49ers (2021-22). He has 4.5-5 sacks in each of his four most recent seasons.

Lewis is a 2018 second-rounder who missed the second half of last season with a ruptured patellar tendon, but he played in Week 2 of the preseason and should be healthy to start the year. In five years, Lewis has 9.5 sacks.

Odeyingbo is a 2021 second-rounder who is decent against the run (65.5 PFF grade last year) thanks to his tweener size (6-foot-6 and 286 pounds), but he’s forgettable as a pass rusher. Leo is a small-school sixth-round rookie who racked up 32.5 tackles for loss in his final two seasons despite his smaller size (6-foot-4 and 245 pounds).

Buckner is a 29-year-old two-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Colts ever since they traded the 49ers a first-rounder to get him in the offseason before his 2020 first-team All-Pro campaign.

Good in run defense and strong in pass rush (44 sacks over the past five years), Buckner is the muscle of the Colts DL. Stewart is a 2017 fourth-rounder who has started for the Colts since 2019. He has minimal impact as a rusher but has never had a PFF run defense grade below 65. 

Bryan is a 2018 first-round reclamation project who joins the Colts after five seasons with the Jaguars (2018-21) and Browns (2022). While the first two seasons of his career were promising, Bryan hasn’t had a PFF grade over 60 since 2020.

Johnson is a 2022 fifth-rounder who got three tackles and no sacks as a rookie on 127 snaps. Adebawore is a fourth-round rookie with the ability to line up inside because of his size (6-foot-2 and 282 pounds) and outside because of his unreal athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash). He has the potential to develop into an interior pass-rushing terror.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Shaquille Leonard, Zaire Franklin
• Backups: E.J. Speed, JoJo Domann, Grant Stuard
• Notable Turnover: Bobby Okereke (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Leonard is a 2018 second-rounder who won Defensive Rookie of the Year and then made three Pro Bowl in 2019-21 before missing almost all of 2022 because of various injuries (back, concussion, nose). Strong in all phases, Leonard is one of the best off-ball LBs in the league when healthy — and he was healthy enough to play in Week 1 of the preseason.

Franklin is a 2018 seventh-rounder who stepped into a full-time role last year because of Leonard’s injury and significantly underwhelmed (57.0 PFF grade), especially in coverage.

The departure of Okereke means that Franklin will once again be a starter, and there’s some hope that he can enjoy positive regression, given that he played well in previous seasons (albeit in limited action), especially against the run, where he has never had a PFF grade lower than 60.

Speed, Domann and Stuard all played 250-plus snaps on special teams last year and are core contributors in that phase. Additionally, Speed (2019 fifth-rounder) earned a career-high 316 defensive snaps last year and did well (78.4 PFF grade). Domann (2022 UDFA) and Stuard (2021 seventh-rounder) are aces who have combined for 25 special teams tackles in their three collective seasons.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Kenny Moore, Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker
• CB Backups: Julius Brents, Darius Rush, Tony Brown
• S Starters: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas
• S Backups: Nick Cross, Henry Black
• Injured: S Daniel Scott (knee)
• Borderline: CB Jaylon Jones, SS Ronnie Harrison and FS Trevor Denbow
• Notable Turnover: CBs Stephon Gilmore (Cowboys), Isaiah Rodgers (free agent) and Brandon Facyson (Raiders), SS Rodney McLeod (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Moore is a 2017 UDFA who is the ostensible No. 1 CB now that Gilmore (traded) and Rodgers (suspended then released) are gone. The problem with that is he’s a slot-limited defender who made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and then had the worst season of his career in 2022 (46.3 PFF coverage grade).

Flowers is a 2022 UDFA who played just 175 snaps last year and allowed 9.4 yards per target. Baker is a 2022 UDFA who saw action last year on only 31 special teams snaps but has emerged as a training camp standout, started opposite Flowers in Weeks 1-2 of the preseason and appeared at the top of the team’s unofficial depth chart ahead of its second preseason game. He looks like a perimeter starter.

Brents is a second-round rookie with elite size (6-foot-3 and 198 pounds), great agility (6.63-second three-cone), sufficient speed (4.53-second 40-yard dash), the length to become competent in press-man coverage and the skills to contribute in a zone scheme — but the fact that he’s not certain to start in Week 1 on this depth chart is concerning.

Rush is a fifth-round rookie who — like Brents — is a physical specimen (4.36-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 198 pounds). A WR-to-CB convert in college, Rush is a raw upside-heavy project. 

Brown is a 28-year-old journeyman who has experience with DC Gus Bradley and DBs coach Ron Milus (2018 Chargers, 2021 Raiders, 2022 Colts). He played just 10 snaps last year on defense but 302 snaps on special teams.

Jones is a 21-year-old five-star seventh-round rookie who started three years in the SEC at Texas A&M but had just three interceptions and 12 passes defended in that span. He’s talented but fighting for a roster spot.

Blackmon is a 2020 third-rounder who bangs against the run (low PFF grade of 75.8 in each of his three seasons) but collapses in coverage (high PFF grade of 57.4). With the departure of McLeod, Blackmon is likely to shift to SS from FS, where Thomas will now play as the second starter. A 2022 seventh-rounder, Thomas notably underperformed as a rookie (54.3 PFF grade).

Cross is a 2022 third-round box safety who looked lost against the run and in coverage on 122 snaps last year. Black is a 2020 UDFA who spent last year on the Colts practice squad after playing minimally and poorly for the Packers in his first two seasons.

With Scott (fifth-round rookie) out for the year after suffering an ACL tear in OTAs, both Harrison and Denbow have a shot to make the team. Harrison is a 2018 third-rounder who signed with the team in mid-August.

A classic box safety (6-foot-3 and 214 pounds) who largely disappointed in his first five seasons with the Jaguars (2018-19) and Browns (2020-22), Harrison forced a fumble and had five tackles in the second preseason game (his first with the team) but also gave up 30 yards on two targets.

Denbow is a 2022 UDFA who has started both preseason games, which seems to make him likely to make the team, but he played zero defensive snaps last year. 

 Specialists

• Kicker: Matt Gay
• Punter: Rigoberto Sanchez
• Holder: Rigoberto Sanchez
• Long Snapper: Luke Rhodes
• Kick Returner: Dallis Flowers
• Punt Returner: Isaiah McKenzie
• Notable Turnover: K Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers), P Matt Haack (Cardinals)

Gay is a 2019 fifth-rounder who underwhelmed as a rookie with the Buccaneers (77.1% conversion rate), improved as a second-year player with the Rams (87.5%) and then dominated for L.A. in his third and fourth seasons (93.8%, 2021 Pro Bowl, 11-of-14 kicking on attempts of 50-plus yards). His four-year deal with $13M guaranteed ensures that he’ll make the Colts in his first season with the team.

Sanchez has been the No. 1 P with the Colts since his 2017 rookie season, but he missed last year with a torn Achilles. There’s nothing exceptional about his career marks of 45.1 yards per punt and 38.5% punts downed inside the 20-yard line.

Rhodes has been long snapping for the Colts since his 2016 rookie campaign. A 2020 second-team All-Pro and 2021 first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler, Rhodes — I guess — is good at hurling a ball between his legs with accuracy and velocity.

Flowers had a league-high 31.1 yards per kick return last year, although it’s possible — now that he’s expected to start at corner — that he could offload some return duties to McKenzie, who averaged 22.6 yards per kick return and 9.2 yards per punt return over the past five years with the Bills.  

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Colts’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 4
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 13-16
• Opponents: at TEN, at CIN, vs. PIT, at ATL

The Colts have one of the league’s easiest schedules. Based on the market win totals of their opponents, they have the No. 4 schedule. On top of that, they have nine home games, and one of their away games is a neutral contest in Frankfurt.

As a rookie, Richardson could struggle early in the year, but the schedule is kindly situated to give the Colts two home games to close the year against the Raiders and Texans. If they finish strong, the Colts could make the playoffs. But their stretch of games in Week 13-16 — before the closing homestand — is tough.

After the Week 11 bye, the Colts as favorites host the Buccaneers. Nothing especially challenging there, but then they play three-of-four away and are underdogs in each game. In Week 13, they have a road divisional rematch against the Titans followed by another road game against the Bengals.

In Week 15, they return home to host the Steelers, who have three extra days of rest, and then the Colts hit the road again to play the Falcons.

If the Colts are to make a late-season push to the playoffs, they’ll need to win at least two of these games.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Colts.

• Owner Jim Irsay fires GM Chris Ballard midseason and assumes the position of acting GM after Irsay orders Ballard to give RB Jonathan Taylor a lucrative contract extension and Ballard refuses.
• HC Shane Steichen comes under intense media and fan scrutiny after starting the season 0-10 and barely escapes from the Week 11 bye with his job.
• OC Jim Bob Cooter is sacrificially terminated in the bye week as Steichen assumes full control of the offense.
• DC Gus Bradley coordinates a bottom-five defense.
• QB Anthony Richardson looks like a 21-year-old rookie who started only one year in college and struggled with his accuracy.
• RB Jonathan Taylor gets his above-market contract extension, suffers a slight knee tweak in Week 7 and decides to sit out until the Week 11 bye — just to stick it to the man retroactively — even though he’s medically cleared to play in Week 9.
• WR Michael Pittman is traded by Irsay to the Chiefs for a second-round pick after Pittman’s agent tells the Colts that his client intends not to sign a long-term with the team.
• The OL crumbles for a second consecutive season.
• EDGEs Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam fail to give any meaningful pass-rushing support to DT DeForest Buckner, who openly questions the team’s leadership and future after the team’s last-minute loss to the Patriots in Germany in Week 10.
• LB Shaquille Leonard reinjures his back in Week 5, tries to return to action after the Week 11 bye but is unable to do so, and consequently announces his retirement in Week 15.
• CBs Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker are both benched in Week 3 but reinserted into the starting lineup in Week 6 when their replacements perform unacceptably.
• Colts finish 5-12, fail to secure a top-three pick in the draft and are unsure about the viability of Richardson as an NFL QB entering his second season. Irsay states in his end-of-year press conference that he plans to retain Steichen, who showed great promise by going 5-2 to close the year — but then he fires Steichen two weeks later, shortly after which he announces that the team has hired its new GM — Peyton Manning, who plans to bring back Jim Caldwell and Jim Bob Cooter as HC and OC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Colts.

• Owner Jim Irsay announces after Week 1 that he plans to take an extended break from social media and team operations in order to enjoy life more.
• HC Shane Steichen works his magic and wins Coach of the Year.
• OC Jim Bob Cooter helps Steichen construct an offense that maximizes the talent of their rookie passer.
• DC Gus Bradley coordinates the No. 12 defense.
• QB Anthony Richardson wins Offensive Rookie of the Year and sets the single-season rushing record for a QB with 1,300 yards.
• RB Jonathan Taylor reports to training camp shortly before the season starts, gets a small raise, stays healthy and has his second first-team All-Pro campaign with 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage.
• WR Michael Pittman has the most efficient season of his career with 9.5 yards per target.
• The OL returns to its pre-2022 form.
• EDGEs Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam combine for 15 sacks in support of DT DeForest Buckner, who gets a career-high 13.5 sacks and his second first-team All-Pro designation.
• LB Shaquille Leonard plays 16 games and finishes No. 2 in the league with 175 tackles.
• CBs Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker get the job done in Bradley’s Cover 3 scheme.
• Colts go 12-5, win the AFC South, beat the Chargers on Super Wild Card Weekend and then hang with the Chiefs for three quarters before losing by 13 points in Kansas City in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Colts as a neutral betting team.

I think it’s notable that ever since DC Gus Bradley returned to the coordinator ranks (after his Jaguars HC stint) and teamed up with LBs Coach Richard Smith and DBs Coach Ron Milus in 2017, unders have been the winning side for his three teams. 

• 2022 Colts Unders: 10-7 (13.1% ROI)
• 2021 Raiders Unders: 10-8 (6.8% ROI)
• 2017-21 Chargers Unders: 38-28 (11.9% ROI)

Also, I expect Richardson to offer some profitable opportunities throughout the year. He will likely be rough, but the betting history of first-round rookie running QBs is good. (Note: I’m arbitrarily saying that a guy qualifies for this sample if he has 75-plus rushing attempts as a rookie.) 

• Vince Young (2006): 10-3 ATS (52.2% ROI)
• Cam Newton (2011): 9-7 ATS (11.6% ROI)
• Robert Griffin (2012): 10-5 ATS (30.5% ROI)
• Josh Allen (2018): 6-5 ATS (4.6% ROI)
• Lamar Jackson (2018): 4-3 ATS (13.0% ROI)
• Kyler Murray (2019): 9-5-2 ATS (22.7% ROI)

I’ll be picking my spots with the Colts.

Data from Action Network, regular season only.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a low-hold market on the Colts win total.

• Over 6.5: -120 (Caesars)
• Under 6.5: +110 (DraftKings)

Since the sportsbooks have only a 2.22% edge in this market, we have a larger margin for error than we usually do, so this is theoretically a good spot to take a shot.

Plus, I have the Colts projected for 7.2 wins, thanks in part to their easy schedule. 

But if you’ve been reading my team previews then you know that I loath overs in the win total market, which tends to be inflated. And I also want a bigger payout than this market typically affords.

So if I’m bullish on the Colts relative to their win total, I should probably look to bet them in a market that offers more upside.

There’s no chance that the Colts win the Super Bowl or the AFC, so those markets are out. But what about the AFC South? They’re +700 at Caesars to win their division.

But here’s the thing, if the Colts win the AFC South, then I think one member of the team is likely to offer a much bigger upside in the awards market.

Shane Steichen to Win 2023 Coach of the Year (+2500, FanDuel)

If the Colts win their division, then they will almost certainly have at least nine wins. Probably closer to 10-11 wins, and maybe even 12 wins — just one season after going 4-12-1 and having the No. 4 overall pick.

With that kind of year-over-year improvement in the win column, Steichen will be live to win Coach of the Year, especially because he’ll likely carry narrative threads that Associated Press voters can neatly tie together.

Steichen is a first-year coach, so he has the appeal of novelty, and writers can talk about him as if he’s a young ascending talent with the long-term potential to change the game. They can talk about his work in guiding Richardson to a winning record as a rookie and helping him — just as he previously helped Herbert and Hurts — develop into an NFL QB. And they can draw parallels to the past, when first-year HC Bruce Arians received the award after winning 11 games and mentoring Luck as a rookie after the franchise lost Manning.

And here’s the thing: I actually think Steichen will be a good coach.

He has the ability to develop Richardson. And he has the potential to win double-digit games in 2023.

If that happens, Steichen will be a frontrunner for the award.

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