2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars leaped from 3-14 and worst in the league to 9-8 and No. 1 in the AFC South. They won an epic 31-30 come-from-behind Wild Card matchup with the Chargers after digging themselves into a 27-0 hole. They hung with the Chiefs in a 27-20 Divisional Round loss and proved that they belong in the conversation of contenders. 

They washed off the one-year stink of former HC Urban Meyer and liberally applied the professional-grade deodorant of Super Bowl-winning HC Doug Pederson. And they saw franchise QB and 2021 No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence develop into a top-12 passer. 

Last year was an astounding success. This year, the Jaguars plan to build on their 2022 achievements by repeating as division champs, going further in the postseason and just maybe winning a Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Jaguars preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Jaguars preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Jacksonville Jaguars offseason odds

Odds as of June 30. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 30. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Jaguars 2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of June 30.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 30.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 30.

Jacksonville Jaguars general manager and head coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Trent Baalke
• Head Coach: Doug Pederson
• Team Power Rating: +2
• Team Power Ranking: No. 10
• Coach Ranking: No. 11

Baalke joined the Jaguars in 2020 as the director of player personnel and de facto heir-in-waiting to embattled then-GM David Caldwell, who entered the year with six losing campaigns in seven seasons with the team. After a 1-10 start, the team fired Caldwell, named Baalke interim GM and then gave him the full-time job after the team finished with a league-worst 1-15 record.

With his new power, Baalke made two impactful decisions: He hired HC Urban Meyer and used the No. 1 pick on Trevor Lawrence. That first choice: Very bad. The second choice: Obvious, but still excellent. These two decisions highlight a pattern that has appeared throughout Baalke’s executive career: He’s terrible (or inconsistent at best) at hiring “acceptable” coaches but generally good at investing his high-impact draft capital.

As the GM of the 2011-16 49ers and current Jaguars, he has seen the entirety of four coaching tenures. In 2011, Baalke hired HC Jim Harbaugh, who took the team to three straight NFC Championships and a Super Bowl, but his “college coach” mentality wore on the players and his my-way-or-the-highway workstyle made it difficult for the front office to collaborate with him, so when the team was unable to trade him after his third year it “parted ways” with him following his 8-8 fourth season. 

Think about that. Baalke got rid of a guy who never had a losing season — because no one in the organization wanted to work with him. Despite Harbaugh’s on-field success, he was a poor hire… as were HCs Jim Tomsula (2015, 5-11) and Chip Kelly (2016, 2-14), whose back-to-back one-year tenures of incompetence and disorder culminated in Baalke’s dismissal from the 49ers.

And he’s frankly unbelievably lucky that the debacle with Meyer didn’t lead to his termination with the Jaguars. Meyer went 2-11 and didn’t even reach the end of a scandal-filled season as the team finished 3-14 and in possession of the No. 1 pick for the second year in a row.

In Pederson, Baalke finally seems to have made a smart HC hire. Pederson has had sustained NFL success. He has won a Super Bowl. And, like Baalke, he’s on his second (and maybe final) shot at the job. He knows that both men need to make their partnership work if they’re to have success in Jacksonville. So Baalke got this decision right — but his HC history is hellish.

His drafting history, though, is a different matter, and it’s probably the reason he was hired by the Jaguars. Baalke is a talent evaluator by trade (1998-2000 Jets scout; 2001-04 Redskins scout, college scouting coordinator; 2005-10 49ers scout, director of player personnel, VP of player personnel), and since he has had control of a draft room he has only twice picked a QB in the first five rounds: Lawrence and Colin Kaepernick (2011, No. 36). 

Lawrence was a “gimme,” but Kaepernick was a freight train before bad coaches and non-football decisions derailed his career. At the QB position, Baalke is literally all hits and no misses — and few GMs can say that.

With the 49ers, he regularly found Pro Bowlers and longtime starters in the draft, especially in the early rounds, from his first two seasons (2010 LG Mike Iupati, 2011 EDGE Aldon Smith) to his last two seasons (2015 DL Arik Armstead, 2016 DT DeForest Buckner). And in the 2021-22 Jaguars drafts, he added seven starters and two top backups in the first three rounds. Baalke might not know how to hire HCs, but he knows how to scout players.

And Pederson knows how to coach them. As Eagles HC, Pederson had only one truly bad season, his 4-11-1 final campaign, which was marred by ineffective QB Carson Wentz, who was never the same after his 2017 season-ending ACL tear. If not for that injury, Pederson and Wentz might still be in Philadelphia together.

Pederson was fantastic as a developer of Wentz in 2016 (7-9) and 2017 (13-3). He was magnificent in altering the offense with new concepts and plays to fit backup QB Nick Foles after Wentz’s injury, which enabled the Eagles to score 41 points against the Patriots in a Super Bowl 52 win. He was masterful in coaxing back-to-back 9-7 seasons out of 2018-19 Eagles teams hamstrung by a declining Wentz. And he was wizardly in transforming the 2022 Jaguars into not just a professional football team but also a division champion and postseason contender.

Pederson isn’t a genius offensive schemer. He’s not on the level of Andy Reid, whom he worked under for seven years with the Eagles (2009-10 quality control, 2011-12 QBs coach) and Chiefs (2013-15 OC). But he’s a solid play-caller: Last year, the Jaguars were +10% in pass frequency over expected in second-and-long situations so that Lawrence could have the best chance possible of avoiding third-and-long (per RBs Don’t Matter). He’s a bold and strategic decision-maker: His 2016-20 Eagles were No. 3 in fourth-down aggressiveness. And he’s a steady organizational presence as the guy in charge. Baalke can tell you himself how important that last feature is.

Doug Pederson coaching record

• Years: 6 (1 with Jaguars)
• Playoffs: 4 (1)
• Division Titles: 3 (1)
• Super Bowls: 1 (0)
• Championships: 1 (0)
• Win Total Record: 3-3 (1-0)
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -0.08 (+2.5)
• Regular Season: 51-45-1 (.531) [9-8 (.529)]
• Playoff Record: 5-3 (.625) [1-1 (.500)]
• Against the Spread: 53-52 (-1.8% ROI) [10-9 (1.0% ROI)]
• Moneyline: 56-48-1 (7.5% ROI) [10-9 (19.1% ROI)]
• Over/Under: 50-55 (1.4% ROI, Under) [9-10 (1.0% ROI, Under)]

Jaguars stats in parentheses and brackets. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Jaguars team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Jaguars offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Press Taylor
• Offensive Playcaller: Doug Pederson
• Passing Game Coordinator: Nick Holz
• OL Coach: Phil Rauscher
• QBs Coach: Mike McCoy
• RBs Coach: Bernie Parmalee
• WRs Coach: Chad Hall
• TEs Coach: Richard Angulo
• Notable Turnover: Passing Game Coordinator Jim Bob Cooter (Colts), WRs Coach Chris Jackson (Univ. of Texas)
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Taylor is a two-time junior college national champion starting QB who transitioned to coaching after graduation. He did two years as an assistant at Tulsa before jumping to the NFL and working for the 2013-20 Eagles, first as a quality control coach (2013-15) under HC Chip Kelly and then as assistant QBs coach (2016-17), QBs coach (2018-19) and finally QBs coach/passing game coordinator (2020) under Pederson. After a one-year detour with the Colts as the senior assistant to former colleague and ill-fated then-HC Frank Reich (2016-17 Eagles OC), Taylor reunited with Pederson on the 2022 Jaguars in his current role. Given Taylor’s time and roles on Pederson’s previous staff, he’s a natural OC to the playcalling HC.

Holz is a left-field hire as Cooter’s replacement, given his overall lack of high-level experience. Last year he was the UNLV OC after spending 10 years with the Raiders (2012-14 assistant, 2015-16 and 2018-20 quality control, 2017 and 2021 assistant WRs coach). Rauscher has been in the NFL since 2015 and working with NFL lines for the past five years, first as an assistant (2018-19 Redskins, 2020 Vikings) and now as a coach (2021 Vikings, 2022 Jaguars). With the Vikings, he oversaw a unit that was No. 5 in fewest sacks allowed (30).

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to pass before an NFL first round playoff football matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki 011423 Chargers Jags C 17

McCoy is a coup as the QBs coach. A journeyman QB who practice squad-ed in the NFL, backed up in the CFL and played in NFL Europe, he transitioned to coaching with the Panthers in 2000 and worked his way up to QBs coach/passing game coordinator, developing undrafted QB Jake Delhomme and turned him into a longtime starter in the process. He left the Panthers in 2009 to be Broncos OC, a role in which he oversaw QB Kyle Orton’s two best seasons (2009-10), QB Tim Tebow’s meme-inducing campaign (2011) and QB Peyton Manning’s Comeback Player of the Year renaissance (2012). 

With this record of success, McCoy was named Chargers HC, and under his guidance, QB Philip Rivers won Comeback Player of the Year (2013), and the passing offense was top-10 for all four years of his tenure, but he was fired after back-to-back losing seasons. As the 2017 Broncos OC and 2018 Cardinals OC, he was forced to work with passers (Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen) who barely deserve the title of “NFL QB,” and those gigs predictably ended poorly with midseason dismissals — but after a three-year hiatus he returned to the NFL in 2022 and helped mentor Lawrence to a Pro Bowl season. Perhaps his days as a coordinator have passed him by, but his record suggests that McCoy is one of the league’s best QB uplifters. 

Parmalee was an undrafted nine-year NFL RB who started out as a TEs coach (2002-04 Dolphins, 2005-09 Notre Dame, 2010-12 Chiefs) before transitioning to RBs coach (2015-17 Raiders, 2018-20 Falcons) and joining the Jaguars as such in 2021. He’s the one high-level offensive holdover from the Meyer regime. Hall joins the Jaguars as the replacement to Jackson after serving as an assistant (2017-18) then WRs coach (2019-22) for the Bills, where he oversaw career-best seasons for Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley. Angulo played TE in the NFL (2007-08 Jaguars, among others) and then eventually found a spot on the Ravens staff (2014 intern, 2015-16 TEs coach, 2017-21 assistant OL coach) before joining the Jaguars last year in his current role. Under him, TEs Dennis Pitta (2016) and Evan Engram (2022) have had their best seasons.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 Jaguars defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Mike Caldwell
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Bob Sutton
• DL Coach: Brentson Buckner
• Outside LBs Coach: Bill Shuey
• Inside LBs Coach: Tony Gilbert
• Passing Game Coordinator/CBs Coach: Deshea Townsend
• Safeties Coach: Cody Grimm
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Caldwell played LB in the NFL for 11 years, four of which were with the Eagles (1998-2001), where he was teammates with QB Doug Pederson (1999). Later they reunited on the Eagles staff, where Caldwell (like Pederson) started as a quality control coach (2008-09) and worked his way up to assistant LBs coach (2010) and then LBs coach (2011-12). After the Eagles fired Reid, Caldwell left Philadelphia but stayed in the NFL as an inside LBs coach (2013-14 Cardinals, 2015-18 Jets, 2019-21 Buccaneers) who supervised tight and tough units. 

When Pederson was named Jaguars HC, he decided to give Caldwell his first shot in a DC role. Although the defense definitely improved last year (No. 12 in scoring), it still allowed a lot of yards (No. 24) and had some subpar underlying metrics (No. 18 in success rate, No. 26 in DVOA). The team will look for the defense to improve in its second season under Caldwell. Fortunately for him (in theory), he returns his entire staff, even his lower-level assistants. If there’s a problem with the defense, it won’t be coaching continuity.

Sutton coached in college for 28 years — a span of time punctuated by his tenure at Army (1983-90 DC, 1991-99 HC) — before he jumped to the NFL, where he had been a high-level assistant or coordinator for more than two decades. He worked with Pederson for three years on the Chiefs, where he was the 2013-18 DC. Buckner played DT for 12 years in the NFL and has been a DL coach in the league for the past 10. He and Caldwell worked together on the 2013-14 Cardinals.

Shuey got his NFL start with the Eagles, where he served as a quality control coach for both offense (2003-06) and defense (2007) and first worked with Pederson and Caldwell as LBs coach (2008-10). 

After a college detour, he returned to the NFL via the Bears (2018-2021), where he was the outside LBs coach for a year before joining the Jaguars in that role. Gilbert played LB in the NFL for seven years, most of which were with the Jaguars (2003-07), and then he transitioned to coaching in the high school and college ranks before returning to Jacksonville as assistant LBs coach (2020-21), surviving the Doug Marrone-to-Meyer-to-Pederson transition and advancing to inside LBs coach in 2022. 

Townsend has been in the NFL almost nonstop since 1998, first as a cornerback (13 years, 80 starts, two Super Bowl wins) and then as a DBs coach (with the exception of 2013-15). He worked with Shuey on the 2019-21 Bears, where he was the secondary coach before joining the Jaguars in his expanded role. Grimm played for the 2010-12 Buccaneers and then coached on the 2019-21 Bucs as a defensive and special teams assistant with Caldwell, who recruited him to Jacksonville with a bigger job.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Heath Farwell
• Assistant Special Teams Coach: Luke Thompson

Farwell played LB and special teams in the league for a decade before coaching NFL special teams, which he has been doing since 2016, first as an assistant coach (2016-17 Seahawks, 2018 Panthers) and then a coordinator (2019-21 Bills, 2022 Jaguars). Last year, the Jaguars special teams jumped up from No. 26 to No. 11 in DVOA. Thompson was the special teams assistant under Peterson on the 2019-20 Eagles after coaching in college for 20 years.

Projected Jaguars 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Trevor Lawrence
• Backups: C.J. Beathard, Nathan Rourke
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Trevor Lawrence was the no-doubt No. 1 pick of the 2021 draft and probably the most hyped prospect since QB Andrew Luck after leading Clemson to a 44-16 win over Alabama in the national championship game as a five-star true freshman. Amidst the Meyer madness, he struggled as a rookie with an NFL-high 17 interceptions, but he played significantly better in 2022 with a 66.3% completion rate and 4,113 yards passing. I see no reason for him not to take another large step forward in 2023.

C.J. Beathard is a 29-year-old Andy Dalton minus the years of starting experience and the minor threat of ever taking the starter’s job. He has been Lawrence’s backup since 2021. Nathan Rourke is a 25-year-old CFL transfer who last year had a league-record 78.7% completion rate and league-high 334.9 yards per game.

Projections as of June 30.

Running Backs

• Starter: Travis Etienne
• Backups: Tank Bigsby, JaMycal Hasty
• Fullback: Derek Parish
• Borderline: Snoop Conner, D'Ernest Johnson
• Notable Turnover: James Robinson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Travis Etienne is a 2021 first-rounder who missed his rookie year with a Lisfranc injury but balled out in 2022 with 1,441 scrimmage yards and a league-best +0.73 rushing yards over expected (per Tej Seth’s RYOE app). An explosive runner with sufficient three-down ability (35-316-0 receiving on 45 targets), Etienne has the upside of a top-five back. 

Tank Bigsby is a third-round rookie with an elite recruitment pedigree (five stars), between-the-tackles size (6-foot and 210 pounds), and solid college production (1,150-plus scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns in his two final seasons). He’ll be an early-down complement to Etienne as the James Robinson replacement. 

Jamycal Hasty is a 2020 UDFA who last year (his first with the team) had a career-high 265 snaps, 320 yards and three touchdowns as a pass-down specialist. With a poor camp, he could lose his roster spot to Conner or Johnson. Conner is a 2022 fifth-rounder who has great size (5-foot-10 and 222 pounds) but played only 39 snaps last year. If he were better, Bigsby probably wouldn’t be on the roster. 

D'Ernest Johnson is a 27-year-old veteran with just $50,000 in guarantees despite looking like a Hall of Famer (41-245-1 rushing, 9-80-0 receiving on 10 targets) in two spot starts with the 2019-22 Browns. Derek Parish is a seventh-round rookie EDGE-to-FB convert who had five sacks in each of his two final seasons. A great athlete (4.56-second 40-yard dash, 6.76-second three-cone at 6-foot and 241 pounds), Parish will endure himself to coaches and teammates with his two-way smashmouth mentality.

Projections as of June 30.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones
• WR Backups: Jamal Agnew, Parker Washington, Tim Jones
• TE Starter: Evan Engram
• TE Backups: Brenton Strange, Luke Farrell
• Borderline: WR Kevin Austin, TE Gerrit Prince
• Notable Turnover: WR Marvin Jones (Lions), TEs Chris Manhertz (Broncos) and Dan Arnold (Eagles)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Calvin Ridley is a 2018 first-rounder who put up 3,061 yards and 26 touchdowns receiving in his first three seasons with the Falcons but then played only five games in 2021 before stepping away to focus on his mental health (he has since revealed that he was heavily reliant on painkillers to play throughout the 2021-22 seasons and was scared for his family after their home was robbed by armed men, per Players’ Tribune). 

After that, he was suspended in 2022 for violating the league’s gambling policy. During the season, the Jaguars acquired him from the Falcons even though there was no certainty he would be reinstated, which he was this March. It’s hard to predict what Ridley will look like after so much time away, but he looked like a top-10 WR in his last full season and is a significant upgrade on the departed Marvin Jones.

Christian Kirk is a second-contract 2022 newcomer who got paid and then lived up to his compensation with the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career. Although he theoretically has outside capability, he has lined up wide on less than 25% of pass-play snaps in each of the past two years. He’s almost a slot-only asset. Zay Jones is a 28-year-old perimeter journeyman who had a career-high 121 targets, 82 receptions and 823 yards receiving last year in his first season with the team.

Jamal Agnew is a 28-year-old CB-turned-WR who can line up all over the formation despite his size (5-foot-10 and 190 pounds). He has 47-416-4 receiving and 19-197-1 rushing in his two seasons with the Jaguars as a little-used No. 4 WR. Washington is a 21-year-old sixth-round rookie lottery ticket yet to live up to his four-star recruitment status. Tim Jones is a 2021 UDFA who had just four targets on 148 snaps and 66 wind sprints/routes last year — but he was a core special teams contributor. Both Parker Washington and Tim Jones could face camp competition from Austin, a 2022 UDFA practice squad project with near-elite athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash, 6.71-second three-cone at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds).

Engram is a franchise-tagged 2017 first-rounder who had a career-high 73 receptions and 766 yards receiving last year in his first Jaguars campaign after a half-decade with the Giants. Inline for only 34% of pass plays last year, Engram is a glorified WR. He’s not a top-five TE, but he’s in the top 10.

Brenton Strange is an overdraft second-round rookie who played with Washington at Penn State. If there’s one thing NFL offenses should want, it’s multiple pieces of the 2023 Nittany Lions pass attack. (Sarcasm.) Like Washington, Strange didn’t play like a four-star recruit in college, but he’s athletic (4.70-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 253 pounds), and he’s a capable blocker who can line up at FB, inline and slot. He’ll replace Manhertz as the “dirty work” TE. 

Luke Farrell is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has seen 14 offensive snaps in two years, but he plays special teams and has a shot to replace Arnold as the No. 3 TE, although he’ll face competition from Prince, a 2022 UDFA practice squader who was the No. 1 pass catcher for UAB as a senior with 36-699-10 receiving.

Projections as of June 30.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Walker Little, LG Ben Bartch, C Luke Fortner, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Anton Harrison
• Backups: OT Josh Wells, C/G Tyler Shatley, T/G Blake Hance, OL Cooper Hodges
• Suspended: LT Cam Robinson (Weeks 1-4)
• Notable Turnover: RT Jawaan Taylor (Chiefs)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Robinson entered the NFL in 2017 as a five-star All-American three-year SEC LT who fell to Day 2 primarily because of non-violent off-field concerns. Although he has never sniffed a Pro Bowl, he’s a high-floor blindside starter who has steadily elevated his ceiling throughout his career. He’s consistently subpar as a run blocker, but as a pass blocker, he has improved from 50 QB pressures allowed as a rookie to 27 last year. 

Robinson will miss the first four games of the season for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs but should return ready to start in Week 5. While out, he’ll likely be replaced at LT by Little, a 2021 second-rounder who has made eight LT starts in relief of Robinson over the past two years. He’s acceptably average as the team’s swing tackle.

Bartch is a 2020 fourth-rounder who played RG in 2021 before moving to LG in 2022 to make room for Scherff. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 5 but is expected to reclaim his starting job in 2023. Fortner is a 2022 third-rounder who started every game at the pivot as a rookie. Both Bartch and Fortner are average-at-best linemen, but neither is a notable liability and both are young enough to project improvement in their second full seasons as starters.

Scherff is a road-grading, 31-year-old, five-time Pro Bowler who allowed a career-high six sacks last year, but I expect a reversion to form in his second season with the team. Harrison is a 21-year-old first-round rookie with good athleticism (4.98-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 315 pounds) who will likely replace Taylor at RT, although he could fill in at LT in Weeks 1-4 and is a potential long-term blindside successor to Robinson.

Wells is a career-long backup and heavy-set sixth lineman who started his career with the Jaguars as a 2014 UDFA and has returned to the team after four seasons with the Buccaneers. With 24 starts over the past six years, Wells has experience at both tackle spots and is an above-average pass blocker and run blocker. 

Like Wells, Shatley is a 2014 UDFA who started out with the Jaguars, but unlike Wells he never left the team. He has made 45 starts over the past seven years and can play all three interior spots. Only once in his career has he had a PFF pass-blocking grade lower than 60. Wells and Shatley combine to give the line strong veteran depth.

Hance is an undrafted 27-year-old journeyman who spent 2019 on the Jaguars practice squad before stints with the Jets, Browns and 49ers. He returned to the team in the second half of 2022 as a low-end reserve with experience at every non-C spot on the line. Hodges is a seventh-round rookie who made 51 RT starts in college but will likely kick inside in the NFL.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Joshua Allen, Travon Walker
• EDGE Backups: K'Lavon Chaisson, De'Shaan Dixon, Tyler Lacy
• DT Starters: Roy Robertson-Harris, DaVon Hamilton
• DT Backups: Folorunso Fatukasi, Adam Gotsis
• Borderline: EDGE Jordan Smith, DTs Raymond Vohasek and Michael Dogbe
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Arden Key (Titans) and Dawuane Smoot (free agent), DT Corey Peters (retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Allen is a 2019 first-rounder slated to play 2023 on the fifth-year option. He’s yet to replicate his 12-sack rookie season, but he has maintained his pass-rushing prowess while steadily improving as a run defender (83.0 PFF grade in 2022). He’s a solid and well-rounded No. 1 EDGE. 

Walker is the consolation prize for Meyer’s mistakes. The No. 1 pick in last year’s draft, he’s a Baalke DL to the core: a five-star athlete (4.51-second 40-yard dash, 6.89-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds) with limited college production (9.5 sacks in three years). As a rookie he had five sacks but was predictably raw. Improvement is expected for his second season, especially since Key and Smoot (last year’s top rotational EDGEs) are no longer with the team.

Chaisson is a 2020 first-rounder who has played fewer and fewer snaps each year (560 as a rookie, just 120 in 2022). He has three sacks for his career, and the team opted not to pick up his fifth year, which says it all. He’ll need to step up in a big way if he hopes to replace what Key contributed last year (541 snaps, 33 pressures). Dixon is a 2022 UDFA who played four snaps last year. 

He’ll be competing for snaps and maybe a roster spot with Lacy and Smith. Lacy is a Day 3 rookie tweener who never had more than four sacks in any college season. Smith is a four-star 2021 fourth-rounder who played 21 snaps as a rookie but missed 2022 to injury. The Jaguars have no proven depth at EDGE after Allen and Walker, who will be called upon to play a lot of snaps.

Robertson-Harris joined the Jaguars in 2021 after five years with the Bears, and the team gave him a three-year extension this offseason in recognition of his play. He has the positional flexibility to line up all over the DL — from nose to wide outside the tackle — and he has 35-plus pressures and tackles in each of his two seasons in Jacksonville. 

He’s an average-at-worst DT without large vulnerabilities. Hamilton is a 2020 third-rounder with nose size (6-foot-4 and 320 pounds) and the ability to pass rush from the interior (73.3 PFF grade last year). Like Robertson-Harris, he received a three-year extension this spring.

Fatukasi is a second-contract veteran who signed with the Jaguars last season after four years with the Jets. He’s a livable pass rusher (20 pressures in 2022) who used to be excellent against the run (87.6 and 86.2 PFF grades in 2019-20) but last year had a personal-low 24 tackles since becoming a starter in 2019. 

Gotsis is a 30-year-old veteran who has been with the Jaguars since 2020 on a series of one-year contracts (this offseason he finally got a two-year deal). He has three sacks in each of the past two years and is tolerable in run defense, but he’s undistinguished as a rotational player. 

Vohasek is a try-hard seventh-round rookie who posted 14 sacks in six years of college ball. Dogbe is a 27-year-old veteran who joins the team with a one-year deal, just $25,000 in guarantees, and poor play in his four years with the Cardinals. If the Jaguars opt for five DTs, Vohasek and Dogbe will likely be competing for the spot.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Foye Oluokun, Devin Lloyd
• Backups: Chad Muma, Ventrell Miller, Yasir Abdullah
• Borderline: Shaquille Quarterman
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Oluokun is a second-contract veteran who has led the league in tackles (192, 184) in back-to-back seasons (2021 Falcons, 2022 Jaguars). A Day 3 Yalie who has steadily improved in run defense, coverage and pass rush throughout his five-year career, Oluokun has the intelligence and athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash, 6.94-second three-cone at 6-foot-2 and 229 pounds) to continue to dominate in the middle. If he played in a bigger market and had a name that were easier to pronounce, he’d be a Pro Bowler. Lloyd is a 2022 first-rounder who thumps against the run but allowed a position-high 795 yards receiving as a rookie. He will need to be less of a coverage liability in 2023.

Muma is a 2022 third-rounder who served as the No. 3 LB as a rookie. Like Lloyd, he was a solid run defender but a backer-sized black hole in coverage (41.0 PFF grade). Miller is an early-down downhill fourth-round rookie who’s limited against the pass. He’ll likely compete for playing time with Abdullah, a fifth-round rookie with off-ball/edge versatility. Although he’s not built like a typical edge (6-foot-1 and 237 pounds), he has the athleticism (4.47-second 40-yard dash) and college production (19.5 sacks in two final seasons) to justify a real shot at the position — but I expect the Jaguars to put him at LB first. Quarterman is a 2020 fourth-rounder who has done well in limited action (166 snaps), but he played only 22 snaps in 2022, and the additions of Lloyd and Muma last year and Miller and Abdullah this year will likely push him off the roster.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Tyson Campbell, Darious Williams, Tre Herndon
• CB Backups: Chris Claybrooks, Montaric Brown, Christian Braswell
• S Starters: Andre Cisco, Rayshawn Jenkins
• S Backups: Andrew Wingard, Antonio Johnson, Daniel Thomas
• Borderline: CBs Gregory Junior and Tevaughn Campbell, S Erick Hallett
• Notable Turnover: CB Shaquill Griffin (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Tyson Campbell is a 2021 second-rounder who was adequate as a rookie starter and then excellent as a sophomore breakout (5.9 yards per target). It’s an added bonus that he supports against the run (143 career tackles). Williams is a second-contract veteran who joined the Jaguars last season on a three-year deal. A starter and Super Bowl winner with the 2020-21 Rams, Williams has outside/inside versatility and had a career-best 6.2 yards per target in 2022. Herndon is a 2018 UDFA who has spent his entire career with the Jaguars and somehow played 2,718 snaps for the team despite never having a PFF coverage grade of even 60. He has theoretical flexibility in that he’s roughly equally bad at all three WR spots.

Claybrooks is a 2020 seventh-rounder with poor production (10.0 yards per target) and steadily diminishing play volume (375 snaps as a rookie, 47 last year). He’s a subpar No. 4 CB but regular special teams contributor. Brown is a 2022 seventh-rounder who earned a 37.3 PFF grade on 63 snaps last year. Braswell is a sixth-round rookie with good explosiveness (40-inch vertical, 11-foot broad) but suboptimal size (5-foot-10 and 185 pounds). He’ll likely be limited to slot work.

Frankly, none of them is (and none of them should be) a lock to make the roster, and they’ll all face competition from Junior and Tevaughn Campbell. Junior is a 2022 sixth-rounder who lived on the practice squad as a rookie but has upside with his athleticism (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds). Tevaughn Campbell is a CFL transfer who has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and 9.0 yards per target in three NFL seasons (2020-21 Chargers, 2022 Jaguars), but at least he has five-plus years of professional experience — if you can call getting killed in coverage “experience.”

Cisco is a 2021 third-round center field safety who had three interceptions last year and can support in run defense. Jenkins is a 29-year-old second-contract safety who signed with the Jaguars in 2021. He has box/deep versatility but back-to-back subpar PFF grades (56.9, 53.7) in his two years with the team. 

Wingard is a 2019 UDFA who has steadily elevated his play Wingardium Leviosa-style across his four-year career with the Jaguars. Since becoming a core contributor in 2020, he has never had a PFF coverage grade below 65. He can play both positions (Chaser and Beater) and probably loves Harry Potter references. 

Johnson is a physical four-star fifth-round rookie who can play as a box safety and nickel corner. Thomas is a 2020 fifth-rounder who contributes on special teams. Hallett is a sixth-round rookie with six interceptions in his two final seasons. He could push Johnson and Thomas for a roster spot.

Specialists

• Kicker: Brandon McManus
• Punter: Logan Cooke
• Holder: Logan Cooke
• Long Snapper: Ross Matiscik
• Kick Returner: Jamal Agnew
• Punt Returner: Jamal Agnew
• Borderline: K James McCourt
• Notable Turnover: K Riley Patterson (Lions)

McManus signed with the Jaguars this offseason after the Broncos cut him following a down year (77.8% field goal rate). But he had a conversion rate of at least 80% in each of the four prior seasons, and for his career he has a 55.5% rate on kicks of 50-plus yards. He’ll have a theoretical camp battle with McCourt (a 2022 UDFA, not the American writer), but McManus got $1.25M in guarantees at signing. It will be an upset if McCourt beats him out.

Cooke is a 2018 seventh-rounder with five years on the Jaguars. Last season he was No. 3 with 49.3 yards per punt, but he has never been able to get even 45% of his punts to be downed inside the 20-yard line. Matiscik is a 2020 UDFA with a hard-to-spell surname and three years as the Jaguars LS. Agnew was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl last year. He has five TD returns in the NFL (3 punt, 2 kick) and career marks of 10.3 yards per punt return and 25.4 yards per kick return, which would’ve been good for No. 6 in both categories last year.

Jaguars schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Jaguars’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 14
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 4-8
• Opponents: vs. ATL (neut.), vs. BUF (neut.), vs. IND, at NO, at PIT

The Jaguars have an average schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, even though they won their division and a playoff game last year. That’s the benefit they get from playing in the AFC South and against the NFC South this year. But they still have some tough stretches in the schedule, including an unconventional four-of-five away right before their Week 9 bye.

In Week 4, the Jaguars travel to London to face the Falcons at Wembley. The Jags are favored, but given the unusual circumstances (altered travel schedule, playing early by ET time, sometimes subpar field conditions) the Falcons have upset potential with their top-five rushing attack. In Week 5, the Jaguars stay in London for a second consecutive international game, which gives them a travel advantage — but they play the favored Bills at Tottenham Hotspur, so any theoretical short-term home-field advantage they’d have via familiarity with the stadium won’t exist.

After their residence in London, the Jaguars travel back home for a Week 6 rematch against the divisional rival Colts, whom they play in Week 1. The Jags are significantly favored — but anything can happen in division (especially in a second divisional game) — and they could be disadvantaged from the London trip in ways we can’t anticipate, because we’ve never seen a team play back-to-back contests abroad, and usually teams take a bye right after a game in Europe.

And then the Jaguars head back out on the road for away games against the Saints and Steelers.  In Week 7, they’re in a pick’em on Thursday Night Football — which means they have two games within 11 days of leaving London. That’s absurd. And they’re underdogs in Week 8.

It’s unlikely, but there’s a real non-zero chance for the Jaguars, with just a little bad luck, to head into their Week 9 bye on a five-game losing streak… with the knowledge that they’ll be home underdogs against the 49ers in Week 10.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Jaguars.

• Baalke and Pederson start to feud à la Baalke and Harbaugh with the 2011-14 49ers — because Baalke (not his coaches) is the true problem.
• Pederson becomes more conservative with his playcalling, which puts the offense in too many disadvantageous down-and-distance situations.
• Caldwell sees his defense regress back to its underlying 2022 stats.
• Lawrence plateaus.
• Etienne loses too many snaps to Bigsby and Hasty.
• Ridley is a shadow of his 2020 self, and Kirk and Engram both come down from their career-best performances last year.
• Robinson (for whatever mysterious reason) isn’t the same player once he returns from his PED suspension, Bartch and Fortner fail to improve, and Harrison struggles in the transition from college LT to NFL RT.
• Allen and Walker both wear down from overuse as the season progresses.
• Lloyd and Muma continue to be middle-of-the-field coverage atrocities.
• Herndon allows too many big plays.
• McCourt beats out McManus and then misses 30% of his attempts before being released in Week 5 — while the team is still in London.
• Jags go 6-11 in a “things fall apart” campaign, Pederson and Baalke are both fired, and the team hires Jim Caldwell as HC after he interviewed for the position in January 2022. 

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Jaguars.

• Baalke and Pederson get along fine because they need to.
• Pederson stays sharp with his playcalling and decision making.
• Caldwell coaxes another No. 12 scoring finish from the defense.
• Lawrence wins MVP with a 4,500-45 passing campaign.
• Etienne racks up another 1,400-yard season.
• Ridley wins Comeback Player of the Year with a peak Antonio Brown-like 1,500-15 receiving performance, and Kirk and Engram approximate their 2022 production.
• Robinson has his first Pro Bowl season, Bartch and Fortner improve and Harrison dominates immediately.
• Allen and Walker stay fresh throughout the year because Chaisson manages not to be terrible and Abdullah becomes an unexpected high-impact contributor at edge.
• Lloyd and Muma progress as pass defenders from terrible to almost bearable.  
• Herndon is benched, and the team plays with three safeties in its nickel package.
• McManus beats out McCourt and reverts to his pre-2022 form.
• Jags go 13-4, get the No. 2 seed, beat the Chargers again in a double-digit come-from-behind effort on Super Wild Card Weekend, defeat the Bills by a touchdown in the Divisional Round and then gift Pederson the privilege of winning back-to-back #RevengeGames against his two former teams — the Chiefs (AFC Championship) and Eagles (Super Bowl) — as he gets a second championship and builds a case for Canton.

In-season angles

I view the Jaguars as a neutral betting team.

I will likely be most willing to bet on them as underdogs.

• Pederson as Underdog: 30-22 ATS (11.4% ROI)
• Pederson as Underdog: 24-28 ML (26.0% ROI)
• Pederson as Underdog (Jags Only): 9-5 ATS (23.4% ROI)
• Pederson as Underdog (Jags Only): 8-6 ML (41.1% ROI)

Conversely, I’ll probably be most desirous to fade them as favorites.

• Pederson as Favorite: 23-30 ATS (9.4% ROI for faders)
• Pederson as Favorite: 32-20-1 ML (5.9% ROI for faders)
• Pederson as Favorite (Jags Only): 1-4 ATS (53.1% ROI for faders)
• Pederson as Favorite (Jags Only): 2-3 ML (60.0% ROI for faders)

I doubt I’ll take much of a stand on them either way during the season.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking to the player futures market.

Calvin Ridley Most Receiving Yards +6000

This number is +6000 at Caesars, +5000 at DraftKings, +4000 at FanDuel and as low as +2500 at BetRivers — so we’re getting good line-shopping value at Caesars at +6000.

The last time we saw the real Ridley was 2020, when he was No. 5 in the league with 1,374 yards receiving in 15 games. He did that with a broken foot.

He’s 28 years old, so he’s still in his physical prime. His foot is healed. His mind and body are rested thanks to his time off. He’s with potentially the best QB and playcaller he has ever had (apologies to late-career Matt Ryan and OCs Steve Sarkisian and Dirk Koetter).

Sure, that’s the bull case — and there’s an obvious bear case to be made: He hasn’t played football in over a year, and he could (seemingly) choose to walk away from the game whenever he wants because of personal reasons.

But at +6000 I’m willing to bet on the upside of his talent. And when he finishes No. 2 in receiving behind Justin Jefferson I will be extremely tilted.

You can tail the value on Caesars Sportsbook and also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account below!