2023 Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview

The Las Vegas Raiders were a carelessly fashionable darling of trendsetting analysts last year.

They had new faces of the franchise (HC Josh McDaniels, GM Dave Ziegler, No. 1 WR Davante Adams) and had managed to make the playoffs the year prior with a 10-7 record amidst terrible circumstances (HC Jon Gruden resigned midseason in a scandal, and WR Henry Ruggs and CB Damon Arnette were cut in November for serious off-field incidents).

With an improved environment, how could the Raiders not take a step forward? 

Predictably, they took three steps back, finishing 6-11 and disenchanting fans in the process by losing numerous close games against subpar teams due to questionable decisions.

This year, the Raiders would simply like to be a functional franchise with a coach who looks like he knows what he’s doing and a team that plays intelligent, competitive football. If the Raiders also happen to have a winning record and make the playoffs, that’s an added bonus.

In this 2023 Raiders preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Raiders preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 20. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 20. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 Strength of Schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 20.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 20.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 20.

General manager and head coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Dave Ziegler
• Head Coach: Josh McDaniels
• Team Power Rating: -3.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 25
• Coach Ranking: No. 26

Ziegler is a McDaniels lackey. He was teammates with McDaniels at John Carroll, where he was a three-time Division III All-American (1997-99). After graduation, he coached special teams and various offensive positions at John Carroll, Iona College and Chaparral High School for over a decade.

I wouldn’t say that he was stagnating — but he was probably happy whenever the opportunity arose in 2010 to join the Broncos, where McDaniels was the HC. After three years in Denver as a player personnel assistant and scout, he reunited with McDaniels on the Patriots and worked his way up the ranks. When McDaniels decided to take the Raiders HC job in 2022, he made the natural decision to bring Ziegler along as his GM.

It’s impossible to make a strong determination on Ziegler as an organizational decision-maker based on the power structures he has always been a part of. With the Patriots, HC Bill Belichick is the de facto GM, and underneath him the director of player personnel functions in an assistant GM role.

For years, Nick Caserio — who also played at John Carroll with McDaniels and Ziegler — was the director of player personnel (2008-20), and Ziegler was his top lieutenant, first as director of pro personnel (2016-19) and then as the assistant director of player personnel (2020). When Caserio left the Patriots in 2021 to be Texans GM, Ziegler was promoted to director of player personnel and was Belichick’s right-hand man for a year.

And now — even though he carries the title of GM — he’s essentially McDaniels’ assistant, given that McDaniels fancies himself as a Belichick-ian CEO-style executive.

So for the entirety of his career, Ziegler hasn’t owned the organizational moves that have been made by his teams. But it’s worth saying that the Patriots haven’t been a model of sound personnel decision-making for years.

They had Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady on the team for two decades, and eventually the front office alienated him to such a degree that he had to leave the team — and since then the Patriots have made a mess of their QB situation in multiple ways. 

And the same can be said for the Raiders. Since Ziegler and McDaniels joined the team last offseason, they have chased off franchise QB Derek Carr (they cut him in February after trying unsuccessfully to trade him), they have failed to retain backup QB Jarrett Stidham (the guy they originally spurned Carr for) and they have signed QB Jimmy Garoppolo (who immediately needed a foot surgery).

Most of that probably has more to do with McDaniels than Ziegler, but that underscores the larger point: Ziegler is a GM in name only. He’s not the one steering the Raiders' ship. I wouldn’t say he’s a glorified assistant/”yes man”… but he does the administrative work that McDaniels doesn’t have time to do, and he probably doesn’t tell McDaniels “no” as often as he should.

As for McDaniels, he looked utterly outclassed as an organizational leader last year. And that was also the case when he was the Broncos HC. In 2009 — after spending the previous five years as Patriots QBs coach and previous three as Patriots OC — McDaniels joined the Broncos.

He quickly traded away Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler and seemed like a genius when he went into the Week 7 bye with a 6-0 record with QB Kyle Orton as his starter… but then the team went 2-8 after the bye and missed the playoffs. In 2010, McDaniels traded away Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall, drafted QB Tim Tebow in the first round, and went 3-9 before getting fired midseason amidst a videotaping scandal.

To put this generously: As someone at the top of a structure, McDaniels is yet to prove himself as a sound team builder.

And his ability as an offensive schemer and play-caller is also questionable. In his 10 years with Brady, McDaniels always coordinated an offense that was top-eight in scoring. Of course, he also had Brady, so that helps. Without Brady, though, he has had limited success. 

In 2008, McDaniels did well with backup QB Matt Cassel, who started 15 games in place of an injured Brady. That year, the Patriots were No. 8 in scoring. Of course, they also had WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker at their peak. In 2009, the Broncos were No. 20 in scoring; in 2010, No. 19.

As the 2011 Rams OC, McDaniels oversaw a unit that was No. 31 in yards and No. 32 in points. In 2020, the Patriots were No. 27 in yards and points with QB Cam Newton. In 2021, they were No. 6 in scoring with QB Mac Jones — but just No. 15 in yards. And then with the Raiders last year, McDaniels put together an offense that was No. 12 in yards and points… but that’s not especially great for a team that has Carr, Adams, Pro Bowl WR Hunter Renfrow, Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller and Pro Bowl RB Josh Jacobs.

Last year, the Raiders were No. 19 in early-down pass rate and No. 18 in fourth-down aggressiveness (per RBs Don’t Matter). Where exactly does McDaniels provide the team with an edge?

Maybe McDaniels is an asset as an offensive architect. Maybe. But he’s definitely a liability as an organizational officer, and if he doesn’t get better in that regard in 2023 then he might not get the chance to improve as Raiders HC in 2024.

Josh McDaniels coaching record

• Years: 3 (1) 
• Playoffs: 0 (0)
• Division Titles: 0 (0)
• Super Bowls: 0 (0)
• Championships: 0 (0)
• Win Total Record: 1-2 (0-1)
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -1.3 (-2.5)
• Regular Season: 17-28 (.378) [6-11 (.353)]
• Playoff Record: 0-0 (NA) [0-0 (NA)]
• Against the Spread: 21-24 (-9.1% ROI) [8-9 (-8.9% ROI)]
• Moneyline: 17-28 (-18.9% ROI) [6-11 (-33.2% ROI)]
• Over/Under: 22-23 (-0.9% ROI, Under) [8-9 (1.1% ROI, Under)]

Raiders stats in parentheses and brackets. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Mick Lombardi
• Offensive Playcaller: Josh McDaniels
• Pass Game Coordinator: Scott Turner
• OL Coach: Carmen Bricillo
• QBs Coach: Bo Hardegree
• RBs Coach: Kennedy Polamalu
• WRs Coach: Edgar Bennett
• TEs Coach: Jerry Schuplinski
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Lombardi is the son of longtime NFL executive Mike Lombardi, who worked closely with Belichick on the 1991-95 Browns (pro personnel director, then director of player personnel) and later — after a stint as the Browns GM (2013-14) — worked again with Belichick and also McDaniels on the 2014-15 Patriots (assistant to the coaching staff). Lombardi the Father also worked for the Raiders for nine years (1998-2006) as a senior personnel executive.

After serving as a student coaching assistant at Fordham (2009-10), Lombardi the Son joined the Patriots in 2011 and worked for them for two years as a scouting assistant. From there, he went to the 49ers (2013-2016) and then Jets (2017-18) and served as a lower-level assistant before returning to the Patriots in 2019 as the assistant QBs coach and then ascending to WRs coach (2020-21).

When McDaniels accepted the Raiders HC job, he brought Lombardi with him. While McDaniels calls the plays each week, Lombardi is responsible for installing the offense and probably does a fine job with that given his longstanding familiarity with McDaniels. It helps (in theory) that he returns his entire coaching staff, even his lower-level assistants.

January 1, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) scores a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Scott Turner is the son of Norv Turner, who was the 2004-05 Raiders HC and an NFL HC/OC almost every year for close to 30 years (1991-2019). He joins the Raiders this year after spending the past five seasons under HC Ron Rivera (2018-19 Panthers QBs coach, 2020-22 Football Team/Commanders OC).

Turner’s offenses have never been in the top 20 in scoring, but he’s probably an upgrade on Schuplinski as the de facto top offensive assistant.

Bricillo was a longtime college OL coach before joining the Patriots in 2019 as a coaching assistant. He was elevated to co-OL coach in 2020 and then took full control of the job in 2021 before following McDaniels to Las Vegas in 2022 for his current role. 

Hardegree is a former backup college QB (2004-07 Tennessee) who started out in the college ranks (2008-10 Duke, 2011-13 LSU) and then jumped to the 2014 Broncos, where he was a quality control coach for then-OC Adam Gase, whom he followed to the 2015 Bears (offensive assistant), 2016-18 Dolphins (QBs coach) and 2019-20 Jets (offensive assistant).

Once the Gase ride ended, Hardegree joined the 2021 Patriots, worked under McDaniels as a QBs assistant and then hitched his wagon to McDaniels’ westward star in 2022 as the Raiders QBs coach.

Polamalu has coached RBs in college or the NFL for almost every year since 1994. After stints as the OC/RBs coach for the 2010-12 USC and 2014-16 UCLA teams, he launched Dalvin Cook and developed Alexander Mattison for the 2017-21 Vikings before joining the Raiders in his current role last season.

Bennett is an eight-year NFL RB veteran (1992-97 Packers, 1998-99 Bears) who rejoined the Packers after he retired from playing and worked his way up from director of player development (2001-04) to RBs coach (2005-10), WRs coach (2011-14) and eventually OC (2015-17).

After the Packers let him go, accepted a position as Raiders WRs coach in 2018 under then-HC Jon Gruden, who was on the Packers staff in the 1990s when Bennett was a player. Given Bennett’s record developing and working with WRs — especially Davante Adams, whom the team traded for last year — McDaniels was wise to carry Bennett over from Gruden’s staff.

Schuplinski is assuming the position of TEs coach this year after serving as senior offensive assistant last year, when the Raiders didn’t officially have a TEs coach. Perhaps relatedly, the Raiders are now without their two top TEs from 2022.

Schuplinski — as if this ever could’ve been in doubt — played with McDaniels at John Carroll and then worked with him on the Patriots (2013-15 offensive assistant, 2016-18 assistant QBs coach). After stints with the 2019 Dolphins (assistant QBs coach) and 2020-21 Giants (QBs coach), he reunited with McDaniels last season.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Patrick Graham
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Rob Ryan
• DL Coach: Rob Leonard
• LBs Coach: Antonio Pierce
• DBs Coach/Pass Game Coordinator: Jason Simmons
• DBs Coach: Chris Ash
• Notable Turnover: DL Coach Frank Okam (Toledo)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Graham — it might surprise you to know — used to work with McDaniels on the Patriots.

An Ivy League DL at Yale, Graham coached in the college ranks after graduation and then leveraged a defensive assistant position at 2007-08 Notre Dame under HC Charlie Weis — the former Patriots OC — into a job with the Patriots.

Starting out as an assistant (2009-10), he worked as the LBs coach (2011, 2014-15) or DL coach (2012-13) under HC Bill Belichick for the next half-decade before venturing out on his own for two mixed stints as the 2016-17 Giants LBs coach and 2018 Packers LBs coach/run game coordinator, after which he found nesting refuge in the various branches of the Belichick coaching tree, first as the 2019 Dolphins DC under HC Brian Flores (2008-18 Patriots), then as the 2020-21 Giants assistant HC/DC under HC Joe Judge (2012-2019 Patriots) and finally as the Raiders DC in 2022.

Graham is not unimpressive. His 2019 Dolphins defense was terrible by necessity (No. 32 in scoring) based on the extent to which he and Flores were rebuilding the roster, but he laid the foundation for a unit that finished No. 6 in points the next year.

With the 2020 Giants, Graham’s defense was Nos. 9 and 12 in points and yards — but his 2021 defense was No. 23 in scoring, and his 2022 Raiders defense was No. 26. His unit might simply lack the talent to proffer even a league-average performance this year.

Ryan has been coaching in the NFL almost every year since 2000, when he jumped from Oklahoma State DC to Patriots LBs coach, a role he held until 2004, when he was named Raiders DC. It all ties together. Time is a flat circle.

After his time with the Raiders, he had inconsistent-at-best DC runs with the 2009-10 Browns, 2011-12 Cowboys and 2013-15 Saints. After an assistant HC stop (2016 Bills) and two inside LB coach gigs (2019 Redskins, 2021 Ravens), Ryan reunited with McDaniels and returned to the Raiders as a defensive consigliere. He certainly has a lot of experience — but it’s hard to say that he has much to offer Graham.

Leonard is an external replacement to Okam as DL coach. A college S/LB, Leonard coached HS in 2009 and assisted on the 2010-12 NC State teams before catching on with the 2013-18 Giants, where he was Graham’s assistant DL coach in 2017.

When Graham landed the Dolphins DC job in 2019, he brought Leonard in as the LBs coach. After another year as assistant DL coach (2020 Dolphins) and two years as outside LBs coach (2021 Dolphins, 2022 Ravens), Leonard reunites with Graham.

Pierce is a former nine-year NFL LB who made the Pro Bowl in 2006 and was a team captain and the leading tackler for the 2007 Giants, who beat the undefeated Patriots in Super Bowl 42 — so obviously McDaniels wants him on his staff. Prior to joining the Raiders last year, he was the LBs coach (2018-2020), associate HC/co-DC (2020), and then associate HC/DC (2021) at Arizona State.

Simmons is a former 10-year NFL safety (1998-2001 Steelers, 2002-07 Texans) who worked with Graham on the 2018 Packers. After retiring from playing, he did nine years with the Packers (2011-14 assistant, 2015-17 assistant special teams coach, 2018-19 secondary/DBs coach) and two with the Panthers (2020-21 secondary coach/defensive pass game coordinator) before joining Graham last year with the Raiders in his current role.

With the Packers and Panthers, Simmons helped develop CBs Jaire Alexander and Jaycee Horn.

Ash is an “Urban Meyer guy” who spent his entire career in the college ranks and was the 2014-15 Ohio State co-DC/safeties coach before jumping to the NFL as the safeties coach on the ill-fated 2021 Jaguars. He luckily joined the Raiders last year in his current role.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Tom McMahon
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Derius Swinton
• Special Teams Assistant (Returners): Danny Amendola
• Notable Turnover: assistant Special Teams Coach Maurice Drayton (Citadel)

McMahon worked with McDaniels on the 2011 Rams and has been an NFL coordinator for the past 14 years (2009-11 Rams, 2012 Chiefs, 2013-17 Colts, 2018-21 Broncos, 2022 Raiders). Last year the Raiders were No. 12 in special teams DVOA. Of course, they were also No. 3 in 2021, before McMahon took over, so… maybe No. 12 isn’t so good.

Swinton replaces Drayton after a one-year shot as the 2021 Chargers coordinator. He was McMahon’s quality control coach on the 2009-11 Rams and 2012 Chiefs. Also joining the staff is Amendola, a 14-year NFL WR and return man who worked with both McDaniels (2011 Rams, 2013-17 Patriots) and McMahon (2009-11 Rams). A consistently above-average punt and pick returner throughout his career, he will assist the team’s returners in his first year of coaching.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Jimmy Garoppolo
• Backups: Brian Hoyer, Aidan O'Connell
• Notable Turnover: QBs Derek Carr (Saints) and Jarrett Stidham (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Jimmy Garoppolo is a 31-year-old franchise-ish starter who has missed 33 games over the past half-decade and never made the Pro Bowl.

Garoppolo has proven that he can be an efficient player within an intelligent system: Since he joined the 49ers via a midseason trade in 2017, he’s No. 3 in the NFL in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees (via RBs Don’t Matter).

Only Mahomes, Brees and Deshaun Watson have a higher mark than Garoppolo’s 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt since 2017. In each of the three years in which Garoppolo has started 10-plus games, the 49ers have made the NFC Championship. It has been proven possible for Garoppolo to play well and for a team to win at a high level with him as the starter.

But there are two main questions with Garoppolo:

1. Can he stay healthy? 
2. Is McDaniels — or anyone other than 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan — capable of using him effectively for a sustained stretch? 

Garoppolo has passed his all-important training camp physical after having surgery for the foot injury that ended his 2022 season and ultimately his tenure with the 49ers.

He has been cleared to return to action. That’s great. But the odds of him starting every game this year are unfortunately low.

As for the second question, Garoppolo seems uniquely suited to the Shanahan system with his accuracy (67.6% completion rate) and willingness to play under center — but that doesn’t mean he can’t do well with another play-caller, especially McDaniels, because we’ve already seen Garoppolo have success in limited action with McDaniels, whom he played under for the first 3.5 years of his career with the 2014-17 Patriots.

As a backup, he went 2-0 in spot starts, had 690 yards and five touchdowns passing (to zero interceptions) and completed 67.0% of his passes with an 8.4 AY/A. If Garoppolo stays healthy, he could have a top-10 passing season with McDaniels. But his health and efficiency in the post-49ers era are far from guaranteed.

Brian Hoyer is a 37-year-old journeyman with 40 NFL starts — but the Raiders will be in a bad situation if they actually need Hoyer to play. He hasn’t won an NFL game since 2016 — and he has made nine starts since then. With a 59.4% completion rate and 6.7 AY/A for his career, Hoyer is more of a position coach than an actual backup. He is familiar with McDaniels and the overall “Patriots Way” due to his three separate stints in New England (2009-11, 2017-18, 2020-22).

Aidan O’Connell is a fourth-round rookie who will be 25 years old when the season kicks off. A six-year player at Purdue, he started his college career as a zero-star walk-on and finished it as the starter. He has decent size (6-foot-3 and 213 pounds) and accuracy (66.7% completion rate), but he’s a pocket statue who profiles as a backup, not a starter. He could compete with Hoyer for the No. 2 job this year.

Projections as of July 22.

Running Backs

• Starter: Josh Jacobs
• Backups: Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah, Brandon Bolden
• Fullback: Jakob Johnson
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Josh Jacobs is a 2019 first-rounder who played well but somewhat under the radar in his first three seasons (1,220-1,306 yards, 7-12 touchdowns each year) and then exploded in 2022 with a first-team All-Pro campaign thanks to his league-high 393 touches and 2,053 yards plus 12 touchdowns.

He’s yet to sign his franchise tag, but he’s young (25 years old), built (5-foot-10 and 223 pounds) and three-down capable (107-748-0 receiving on 128 targets over the past two years). He has a real shot to dominate the Raiders offense once again in 2023.

Zamir White is a 2022 fourth-rounder who has a phenomenal recruitment pedigree (No. 1 RB in the 2018 class) and an Adrian Peterson-esque physical profile (4.40-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 214 pounds) — but he also has two repaired ACL tears (one in high school, the other at Georgia) and a non-catching skill set (17-132-0 receiving in college). He played behind Abdullah and Bolden last year (40 offensive snaps, 17 carries), but if Jacobs ever were to be unavailable he’d probably be the team’s primary early-down back. 

Ameer Abdullah is a 30-year-old pass-catching specialist who had just four carries last year, but since 2021 he has 63-500-2 receiving on 490 snaps (2021 Panthers and Vikings, 2022 Raiders).

Brandon Bolden is a 33-year-old occasional back and full-time special teams ace who had spent all but one season his career with the Patriots before joining the Raiders last year. He’s a full-blown McDaniels guy, as is Jakob Johnson, a 2019 undrafted free agent who has been with McDaniels since his rookie year (2019-21 Patriots, 2022 Raiders).

An old-school lead blocker, he has only 93 scrimmage yards and zero carries for his career.

Projections as of July 22.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow
• WR Backups: Phillip Dorsett, DeAndre Carter, Tre Tucker
• TE Starter: Austin Hooper
• TE Backups: Michael Mayer, O.J. Howard
• Borderline: WR Keelan Cole
• Notable Turnover: WR Mack Hollins (Falcons) and TEs Darren Waller (Giants) and Foster Moreau (Saints)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Davante Adams is a 30-year-old six-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro who balled out with 100-1,516-14 receiving on 180 targets last year in his first season with the Raiders after eight years with the Packers. A future Hall of Famer, Adams is probably still underappreciated.

The future is uncertain for Adams, given that he signed a long-term deal with the Raiders so that he could be with Derek Carr (his college QB) — but Adams has produced with all sorts of passers. There’s no reason to believe he can’t do well with Garoppolo, and Adams showed no signs of slowing down in 2022.

Jakobi Meyers is a 2019 UDFA who joins the Raiders this year after four seasons with the Patriots. With 209-2,399-8 receiving on 303 targets since 2020, Meyers was the No. 1 receiver in New England for each of the past three years and should be a capable supplementary player to Adams — although he will likely be pushed out of the slot to the perimeter in three-wide sets, because Hunter Renfrow (a 2019 fifth-rounder) is a slot-only contributor (he played 86% of his pass snaps in the slot last year).

Although Renfrow is the more accomplished player (he made the Pro Bowl in 2021 with a 103-1,038-9 receiving season), he could fall behind Meyers in the priority order, given that they have overlapping skill sets and Meyers is a “McDaniels guy.” It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Raiders traded Renfrow at some point.

Phillip Dorsett is a 30-year-old journeyman with perimeter field-stretching speed (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds) and a history with McDaniels (Dorsett was a rotational receiver on the 2017-19 Patriots).

If Renfrow were traded, Dorsett would likely play on the outside in three-wide side sets, which would allow Meyers to shift back to the slot.

Like Dorsett, DeAndre Carter is a 30-year-old journeyman who has some familiarity with McDaniels (Carter was on the 2015 Patriots practice squad and their 2016 preseason roster). Although he’s mainly a slot man, Carter is likely to stick to the roster because of his return skills, and he has proven himself to be a capable rotational contributor over the past two seasons with the Football Team and then Commanders (70-834-6 receiving on 109 targets, 12-74-0 rushing).

Tre Tucker is a rookie third-rounder with good speed (4.40-second 40-yard dash) and kick return ability (24.9 yards per return, two touchdowns in college) but below-average size (5-foot-9 and 182 pounds) and minimal college production (1,564 yards, eight touchdowns from scrimmage in four years).

He’ll make the roster, but I’m skeptical that he’ll make a meaningful difference.

Keelan Cole is a 30-year-old veteran who played 369 snaps for the Raiders last year in his first season with the team. If Renfrow is dealt before the season starts, Cole might get a roster spot.

Austin Hooper is a 28-year-old veteran who joins the Raiders this year after seven seasons with the Falcons (2016-19), Browns (2020-21) and Titans (2022). In 2018-19, he team-volumed his way to two Pro Bowls, but Hooper had just 41-444-2 receiving last year. He’s capable of playing inline and in the slot, and he’s a livable run blocker, but he’s a forgettable contributor.

Michael Mayer is an All-American second-round rookie with a do-it-all skill set. As a true freshman, he led Notre Dame with 42 receptions, and then in his final two seasons he racked up 138-1,649-16 receiving. Exceptional at nothing but strong at everything, Mayer has the upside to develop into a latter-day Jason Witten and could overtake Hooper as the starter.

O.J. Howard is a 2017 first-rounder who failed to develop into the star everyone was sure he’d become. He hasn’t been the same since suffering a season-ending Achilles tear in 2020 (10.1 yards per target before, 6.4 yards per target after).

He joins the Raiders now on his fourth team in three years, but perhaps he’ll be able to regain some of his early-career juice now another season removed from his injury.

Projections as of July 22.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Kolton Miller, LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James, RG Alex Bars, RT Jermaine Eluemunor
• Backups: OT Brandon Parker, G/C Greg Van Roten, OT Thayer Munford, C/G Hroniss Grasu
• Borderline: G/T McClendon Curtis
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Miller is a 2018 first-rounder who has yet to win any accolades but has developed into a top-10 blindside tackle who has allowed just 10 sacks over the past three years. Parham is a 2022 third-rounder who started two games at RG and two at C before settling in at LG for the rest of his rookie campaign. He was a terrible pass blocker last year (55 pressures allowed), but he’s acceptably average as a run blocker (66.9 PFF grade). 

James is a 2019 UDFA who has started at the pivot for the past two years. He has been good enough to keep his job but not good enough to secure an extension ahead of his contract-year campaign. Bars is a 2019 UDFA who joined the Raiders last year as a backup but was elevated to the starting lineup in Week 3.

If 2021 RG Alex Leatherwood (cut after preseason) or LG John Simpson (waived in December) had been able to keep their jobs, Bars likely would still be on the bench. He has never had a PFF grade of even 55. 

Eluemunor is a 2017 fifth-rounder who played for the Patriots in 2019-20, joined the Raiders in 2021 as a backup, and then secured the RT job when Parker — the 2021 starter — suffered a season-ending tricep injury in August.

Given Eluemunor’s familiarity with McDaniels and how well he played in 2022 (75.3 PFF grade), he will likely continue to start at RT, but he could easily regress from last year’s career-best campaign. With Eluemunor starting, Parker (2018 third-rounder) will likely be the team’s top swing tackle, despite allowing 97 pressures in his two seasons (2018, 2021) as a starter.

Van Roten is a 33-year-old journeyman with 54 starts over the past half decade. A competent-at-worst pass blocker with interior flexibility, he could push Bars, Parham and maybe even James for a starting job.

Munford is a 2022 seventh-rounder who made two RT starts last year and allowed just one sack on 205 pass blocks. He could push Parker for the swing spot. Grasu is a 31-year-old journeyman: He can play all three interior spots but has never had a PFF grade above 60. He could lose his roster spot to Curtis, a rookie UDFA with G/T versatility and $210,000 guaranteed. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Maxx Crosby, Chandler Jones
• EDGE Backups: Tyree Wilson, Jordan Willis
• DT Starters: Bilal Nichols, Jerry Tillery
• DT Backups: Byron Young, Neil Farrell, Matthew Butler
• Borderline: EDGE Malcolm Koonce, DT Nesta Jade Silvera
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Clelin Ferrell (49ers), DTs Andrew Billings (Bears) and Kendal Vickers (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Crosby is a 2019 fourth-rounder who developed into the player the Raiders hoped Ferrell — his first-round classmate — would become. With Pro Bowls in back-to-back seasons, Crosby has 20.5 sacks and 35 tackles for loss since 2021.

He’s the lone rock in a line with a weak foundation. Jones is a four-time Pro Bowl and two-time first-team All-Pro 33-year-old who joined the Raiders last year after 10 seasons with the Patriots (2012-15) and Cardinals (2016-21). He was a defensive force in 2015-19, but in 2022 he had just 4.5 sacks and looked his age.

Wilson is the No. 7 pick of the 2023 draft. He has great size (6-foot-6 and 271 pounds) and good production (61 tackles, seven sacks in 10 games as a senior) and is capable in both phases, but he’s still working his way back from a foot injury that cut short his final season, and there’s no timetable for his return.

He shouldn’t miss his rookie year, but any time he misses in training camp will delay his development. Willis joins the Raiders as a 28-year-old league-average rotational journeyman. He’ll likely compete for a spot with Koonce, a 2021 third-rounder with special teams utility but only 116 defensive snaps in two years. 

Nichols signed a two-year deal with the Raiders last offseason after four years with the Bears. Only once has he had a PFF run-defense grade above 65.

Tillery is a 2019 first-rounder who caught on with the Raiders last year after the Chargers finally waived him in the middle of the season after 3.5 years of disappointment. He might be the league’s worst interior run defender to get regular playing time. 

Young is a four-star third-round rookie who was No. 2 on Alabama last year with four sacks. He lacks the size to be an A-gap player (6-foot-3 and 292 pounds), but he has potential as a three-technique rotator.

Farrell is a 2022 fourth-rounder who has the size to line up at nose (6-foot-4 and 325 pounds), but he had a 35.5 PFF grade last year. Butler is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played 56 subpar snaps as a rookie.

Both Farrell and Butler could be pushed for roster spots by Silvera, a four-star seventh-round rookie who contributes against the run but flounders in the rush.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Divine Deablo, Robert Spillane
• Backups: Luke Masterson, Amari Burney, Darien Butler 
• Borderline: Drake Thomas
• Notable Turnover: Denzel Perryman (Texans) and Jayon Brown (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Deablo is a 2021 third-rounder who excels as a run thumper (two PFF grades above 70) but fails as a coverage backer (two PFF grades below 55). Spillane is a 2018 UDFA who joins the Raiders after three mediocre seasons of rotational play with the Steelers. He’s especially poor in coverage (8.1 yards per target).

Masterson is a 2022 UDFA who bloodied his way to a 30.8 PFF grade on 344 snaps as a rookie. Burney is a sixth-round rookie with good size (6-foot-1 and 233 pounds), great speed (4.51-second 40-yard dash) and decent coverage skills (two interceptions, four pass breakups as a senior).

Butler is a 2022 UDFA who was terrible on defense (43.7 PFF grade) but an ace on special teams (87.1 PFF grade). Butler could be pushed for his roster spot by rookie UDFA Thomas, a try-hard team captain with a nose for the ball (100-plus tackles in each of his two final seasons).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters, Brandon Facyson
• CB Backups: David Long, Duke Shelley, Jakorian Bennett
• S Starters: Tre’von Moehrig, Marcus Epps
• S Backups: Roderic Teamer, Chris Smith
• Borderline: CBs Amik Robertson and Tyler Hall, S Jaquan Johnson
• Notable Turnover: CBs Rock Ya-Sin (Ravens) and Anthony Averett (free agent), FS Duron Harman (free agent), SS Johnathan Abram (Saints)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Hobbs is a 2021 fifth-rounder who played well as a slot rookie (7.0 yards per target) but exploitably as a perimeter sophomore (8.5). A strong run supporter, he’s likely to shift back to the slot now that the team has brought in more corners, and he’s probably the only player at the position I feel somewhat confident will start. Peters is a 30-year-old veteran who just signed with the Raiders right before training camp.

An interception-seeking defender who is vulnerable to double moves, Peters was the 2015 Defensive Rookie of the Year and a 2016 and 2019 first-team All-Pro, but he missed 2021 with an ACL tear and allowed 8.2 yards per target last season while capturing just one interception.

Maybe he’ll be better now another year removed from his knee injury, but rarely do players improve at his age. Facyson is a 2018 UDFA who opened his career with the 2018-20 Chargers, made a career-high nine starts for the 2021 Raiders, underwhelmed with the 2022 Colts and returned to the Raiders this offseason. He hasn’t had a PFF coverage grade of even 60 in any of the past four seasons. 

Long is a 2019 third-rounder who joins the Raiders after four years with the Rams. He’s a perimeter defender with the ability to flex into the slot, but he’s a liability against the run because of his size (5-foot-11 and 196 pounds), and last year he had just one pass breakup on 31 targets.

Shelley is a 2019 sixth-rounder who played three forgettable seasons as a rotational slot man for the Bears and then had the best campaign of his career as a perimeter corner for the 2022 Ravens (86.4 PFF coverage grade). Both Long and Shelley could compete for starting jobs — but they could both also lose their roster spots with poor camps.

Bennett is a fourth-round rookie with elite speed (4.30-second 40-yard dash) and 27 passes defended in his final two college seasons. Robertson is a 2020 fourth-rounder who allowed 9.1 yards per target on a career-high 677 snaps.

If the Raiders wanted him playing that much — or at all — in 2023, then they probably wouldn’t have brought in so many new CBs, and the same can be said for Hall, a 2020 UDFA who actually played well last year as a backup slot defender (50.0% catch rate, 2.4 yards per target) but is unlikely to make the team with all the competition ahead of him.

Moehrig is a 2021 second-rounder who won the Jim Thorpe Award as the top DB in college football as a true junior but has failed to distinguish himself in the NFL. He’s not reprehensible at anything, but he’s replaceable at everything. He at least has the versatility to play both safety spots.

Epps is a 2019 sixth-rounder who joins the Raiders after four years with the Vikings (2019) and Eagles (2019-22). He’s a natural SS in that he’s strong against the run (81.0 PFF grade last year) and weak in coverage (47.5 PFF grade).

Teamer is a 2019 UDFA who, aptly, has been a core special teamer for the Raiders for the past two years. As a defender, he has never had a PFF grade of even 60.

Smith is an All-American fifth-round rookie with subpar athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash) and size (5-foot-11 and 192 pounds) but strong production (61 tackles, five pass breakups, three interceptions as a senior) as a two-year starter at Georgia for the back-to-back national champions.

Johnson is a 2019 sixth-rounder who allowed 9.9 yards per target on 477 snaps in his first four years with the Bills — but he’s a special teams ace who has never had a PFF grade below 72.5. I think somehow he’ll end up making the roster.

Specialists

• Kicker: Daniel Carlson
• Punter: A.J. Cole
• Holder: A.J. Cole
• Long Snapper: Jacob Bobenmoyer
• Kick Returner: DeAndre Carter
• Punt Returner: DeAndre Carter
• Borderline: KR Ameer Abdullah, PRs Hunter Renfrow and Keelan Cole 
• Notable Turnover: LS Trent Sieg (Cowboys)

Carlson is a 2018 fifth-rounder who was drafted and cut by the Vikings after two games and then picked up by the Raiders in the second half of his rookie year. Since then, he has had a conversion rate of at least 90% in four of five seasons with the team, which is especially impressive considering that he has attempted 20 kicks of 50-plus yards over the past two years. A 2022 first-team All-Pro, Carlson might be the best NFL kicker not named “Justin Tucker.”

Cole is a 2019 UDFA with two Pro Bowls and one first-team All-Pro since 2021. In each of the past two years Cole has been top-five in yards per punt and top-eight in percentage of punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Bobenmoyer is a 2019 UDFA who joins the Raiders after four years with the Broncos, where he played under special teams coordinator Tom McMahon (2018-21). I guess McMahon likes him.

Carter is steady enough as a punt returner (9.8 yards per return) and kick returner (22.3 yards per return) that he could consolidate all of the return work into one role, and that theoretically makes Abdullah, Renfrow and Cole all less valuable to the team.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Raiders’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 29
• Home Division: AFC West
• Opposing Division: AFC East, NFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
• Opponents: at DEN, at BUF, vs. PIT, at LAC

Despite their 6-11 record last year, the Raiders have one of the league’s five hardest schedules based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. On top of that, they don’t get their bye until Week 13, and they kick off the season with a brutal three-of-four away.

The Raiders open the season on the road at Denver, where the elevation provides the divisional rival Broncos with a true home-field advantage, especially early in the year. For Week 2, they travel to Buffalo for an early game against the Bills. For Week 3, they return home to host the Steelers on Sunday Night Football.

The Raiders are short favorites, but if there’s one underdog team you probably wouldn’t want to play in primetime, it’s probably HC Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, who are always a tough team to beat. After that, the Raiders travel to Los Angeles to play the divisional rival Chargers.

The Raiders could very well open the year 0-4… before even playing the Chiefs twice.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Raiders.

• GM Dave Ziegler fires his head coach against his will after a 1-11 start and gives current senior defensive assistant Rob Ryan the interim role, only to lose his own job at the end of the season after Ryan wins too many games for the team to secure a top-three pick.
• HC Josh McDaniels loses the locker room and fires OC Mick Lombardi after losing the first four games and elevates pass game coordinator Scott Turner to the new role of OC.
• DC Patrick Graham is fired after an embarrassing Week 8 road loss to the Lions on Monday Night Football and is replaced as DC by Rob Ryan.
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo clashes with Turner as the new OC and then suffers a Week 6 hand injury that sideline him for a month.
• RB Josh Jacobs sits out most of training camp because of his contract situation, finally reports to the team but is out of shape and then suffers from overuse as he has the most inefficient campaign of his career.
• WR Davante Adams openly demands a trade request after Week 2 and grumbles through the entire season while WR Hunter Renfrow is made a gameday inactive in Week 5 because, per McDaniels, “We’re going with the players we think give us the best chance to win, same as always.”
• TE Austin Hooper blocks promising rookie Michael Mayer.
• LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James and RG Alex Bars allow an onslaught of interior pressure, resulting in Garoppolo’s Week 6 (and then his Week 14) injury.
• EDGE Maxx Crosby is forced to play almost every defensive snap because he gets minimal support from the DL, and he consequently wears down before getting his second wind with the late Week 13 bye.
• DTs Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery might as well not even be on the field for the lack of run defense they provide.
• LBs Divine Deablo and Robert Spillane regularly lose their souls in coverage.
• CB Marcus Peters is cut before the season even starts.
• SS Marcus Epps is a human welcome wagon for opposing TEs.
• Raiders finish 5-12, and Rob Ryan is named the new HC after going 4-1 to close the season.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Raiders.

• GM Dave Ziegler takes more of an active role in personnel decisions and talks McDaniels out of trading away WR Hunter Renfrow for a Day 3 pick in the preseason.
• HC Josh McDaniels starts to get some Coach of the Year hype after the Raiders go 3-1 to open the year with a large point differential.
• DC Patrick Graham is talked about as a potential HC candidate after his defense holds the Lions to 17 points in a Week 8 road win. 
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo finishes No. 1 in the league AY/A and misses only two starts to a minor injury.
• RB Josh Jacobs again leads the NFL with 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage.
• WR Davante Adams has his fourth-straight first-team All-Pro season, and WR Hunter Renfrow bounces back to respectability.
• TE Michael Mayer plays well enough in the preseason to force his way into the starting lineup.
• LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James and RG Alex Bars allow an onslaught of interior pressure, resulting in Garoppolo’s Week 6 (and then his Week 14) injury.
• LG Dylan Parham marginally improves at pass protection, C Andre James doesn’t get any worse, RG Alex Bars loses his starting job to G/C Greg Van Roten and McDaniels effectively schemes around the weakness of his OL.
• EDGE Maxx Crosby gets just enough support from EDGEs Chandler Jones and Tyree Wilson to stay fresh enough for the entirety of the season.
• DTs Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery are benched early in the year for rookies Byron Young and Nesta Jade Silvera, who fortify the team’s interior run defense.
• LBs Divine Deablo and Robert Spillane are aided by rookie Amari Burney, who covers up their pass defense deficiencies.
• CB Marcus Peters returns to form and garners some light Comeback Player of the Year talk as he leads the league with eight interceptions.
• SS Marcus Epps loses his starting spot to rookie Chris Smith, who steps up at FS as Tre’von Moehrig slides into the SS role.
• Raiders go 12-5, squeak by the Jaguars and Bills on the road and then lose by 13 points to the Chiefs for the third time this year in the AFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Raiders as an emphatically strong “bet against” team, primarily because of their coaching and defense.

Instead of highlighting spots in which I want to fade the Raiders — because I think they’re overpriced in almost every game — I’ll call attention to a couple spots in which I’d consider backing them, if I were actually into that kind of thing.

If I were ever to bet on the Raiders this season, it would almost certainly need to be as underdogs.

• Garoppolo as Underdog: 17-5 ATS (50.4% ROI)
• Garoppolo as Underdog: 15-7 ATS (69.1% ROI) 

Also, the Week 6 #RevengeGame at home against the Patriots is intriguing. McDaniels as the offensive mind vs. HC Bill Belichick, a defensive genius and his former mentor. Garoppolo as the “heir apparent” whom Belichick discarded years ago so he could have a couple more seasons with QB Tom Brady. That narrative I like.

• McDaniels vs. Belichick: 2-0 ATS (93.6% ROI)
• McDaniels vs. Belichick: 2-0 ML (111.8% ROI)
• Garoppolo vs. Belichick: 1-0 ATS (102.0% ROI)
• Garoppolo vs. Belichick: 1-0 ML (150.0% ROI)

But, again, I very much plan not to bet on the Raiders this year. Quite the opposite.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

In the words of deceased Raiders owner Al Davis, “Just win, baby.”

Right now, we have a synthetic negative-hold market for the Raiders win total.

• Over 6.5 Wins: +108 (FanDuel)
• Under 6.5 Wins +108 (BetRivers)

So that means that two paths are open to us.

1. Bet both sides, knowing that we can lock in $10 of profit for every $200 invested.
2. Bet the side we like, knowing that the sportsbooks are effectively paying us to take a position.

If you want to arbitrage the market to secure a certain payout, go for it. It’s almost never a bad idea to accept free money.

I’m going to bet into the market with the knowledge that I’m getting in good.

Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (+108, BetRivers)

I’m low on the Raiders relative to many analysts and the market, but I think my pessimism is warranted. I bet the under on their win total of 8.5 last year — when many sharp bettors loved them — and I don’t see how their situation has improved in 2023.

In a best-case scenario, the defense will be average — but it will likely be terrible. QB Jimmy Garoppolo might struggle in the transition from the 49ers to Raiders. He’s unlikely to be significantly better than former QB Derek Carr, but he is much likelier to miss multiple games — and the team’s backup QB situation is now much worse, as the team has downgraded from Jarrett Stidham to Brian Hoyer.

I have the Raiders projected for 6.0 wins.

This is one of my favorite futures bets of 2023.

You can tail the under on BetRivers, where you can get a free bet of up to $500 if your first bet loses! Sign up below and start betting today!