2023 Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview

Last year the Rams entered the season as reigning Super Bowl champions with a seeming desire to defend their crown.

Needless to say, they didn’t retain their title, finishing 5-12 and No. 32 in offensive yardage.

This year, they probably have a much more modest and reasonable goal: Rebuild the roster.

If they happen to win more games than they lose, even better.    

In this 2023 Rams preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Rams preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 17. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 17. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 17.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 17.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 17.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Les Snead
• Head Coach: Sean McVay
• Team Power Rating: -2.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 23
• Coach Ranking: No. 5

I’m fairly sure that Snead is a good GM. A scout by trade (1995-97 Jaguars scout, 1998-2008 Falcons scout), he joined the Rams in 2012 as GM after a three-year stint as the director of player personnel for the Falcons (2009-11). Now in his 12th season with the team, Snead is one of the league’s longest-tenured GMs. It’s hard to keep a job that long if you’re bad. 

As GM, Snead has made three distinct HC decisions, and all of them he got right.

1. Keep Jeff Fisher.
2. Fire Fisher.
3. Hire McVay.

When Snead was hired in February 2012, Fisher had already been with the team for a month, so Snead had to learn to deal with the guy owner Stan Kroenke had picked.

A longtime and respected NFL HC, Fisher took a team that was 2-14 the previous season and 15-65 the previous half decade and quickly coached it up to a mediocre 7-8-1, making it immediately competitive and getting the most out of a talent-depleted roster while Snead set out to rebuild it.

I say “mediocre” and that sounds like an insult, but it’s not. Fisher did admirable and necessary work to turn a terrible team into an average one in just a year — and then he held the line by going 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9 in the next three seasons, and he did that while the team was going through its St. Louis-to-Los Angeles relocation drama.

It’s not as if Fisher’s first-year success was merely the product of a soft schedule or positive regression: He made the team better, and then he kept it at that level. He elevated the Rams’ floor.

But throughout his tenure, Fisher proved that he wasn’t capable of transforming an average team into a good one, much less a great one. His high floor came with a low ceiling — and that was fine for the early stages of the building process in St. Louis when the team was laying the foundation for the future and erecting the edifice, but that wasn’t workable for the middle stages in L.A. when the team wanted to start on the inside of the house.

Snead was right to keep Fisher for as long as he did. Fisher gave the team the professionalism it had previously lacked and helped it transition to L.A. He did his job — but he couldn’t do McVay’s job, so Snead fired Fisher and hired McVay.

The firing of Fisher could’ve been smoother. In 2016, when the team moved to LA and appeared on Hard Knocks, the Rams started 3-1 but then lost six of their last seven games as Fisher approached the all-time mark for most NFL HC losses.

On Dec. 4 — just two losses away from tying the futility record — Fisher (and also Snead) received a two-year extension… and then the Rams lost 26-10 to the Patriots in a game that saw Tom Brady break the all-time record for QB wins at 201 (he had previously been tied with Peyton Manning). 

Watching Brady and the Patriots celebrate that kind of success in Foxborough might’ve put a bad anticipatory taste in Kroenke and Snead’s mouths, because they fired Fisher on Dec. 12, right after a 42-14 home defeat to the Falcons gave him his record-tying 165th loss. They didn’t want him to break the record with the Rams, and so he didn’t. Naturally, the team lost its next three games without Fisher.

Again, the parting with Fisher could’ve been handled in a much more diplomatic way. But Fisher needed to go, whether that was after Week 14 or after the season — and at least firing Fisher when they did gave Snead and Kroenke an extended period to evaluate HC candidates, and they used that time well, ultimately settling on McVay, who was far from a conventional or safe choice.

Jul 26, 2023; Irvine, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay (right) talks with quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during training camp at UC Irvine. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

When McVay joined the Rams, he was 30 years old — the youngest NFL HC of the modern era. Hiring McVay was a risk-seeking move with the potential to sabotage Snead’s career. One Super Bowl win later, Snead’s career is secure (for the time being). The gambit paid off.

By going with McVay, Snead revealed himself to be something of an all-in swashbuckler, and his “go for broke” mindset pervaded almost all the personnel decisions he made from 2016 to the team’s 2021 championship campaign.

In 2012, Snead set out to rebuild the roster by trading the No. 2 pick for three first-rounders and a second-rounder. That was a conservative, common-sense approach. But once he had the rest of the team the way he wanted it, he aggressively traded up in the 2016 draft to secure the No. 1 selection in exchange for two first-, two second-, and two third-round picks in order to take the franchise signal caller of his choosing: QB Jared Goff.

After that, Snead kept on adding complementary veterans, often in a memetic fashion.

In 2017, he signed LT Andrew Whitworth and WR Robert Woods and traded a second-rounder for WR Sammy Watkins. McVay won Coach of the Year, and the Rams won the NFC West at 11-5.

In 2018, Snead offloaded aging and/or underperforming veterans in EDGE Robert Quinn, LB Alec Ogletree and WR Tavon Austin in the trade market and sent more picks for WR Brandin Cooks, CBs Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and EDGE Dante Fowler.

In 2019, he traded for OG Austin Corbett and sent multiple first-rounders to the Jaguars for CB Jalen Ramsey. In 2020, Snead took a break — and then returned with a vengeance in 2021 as he traded Goff and two first-rounders to the Lions for QB Matthew Stafford in the preseason and then added RB Sony Michel, EDGE Von Miller and WR Odell Beckham midseason.

The result of all this wheeling and dealing was a glorious championship in 2021… and then the inevitable collapse in 2022.

Even with last season in mind, Snead’s maneuvering is retrospectively brilliant. It’s hard for many scouts-turned-GMs to make the shift from “talent evaluator” to “risk practitioner” — but on a dime Snead managed to transform himself from the guy who drafted injured RB Todd Gurley No. 10 overall to the NFL version of a point-counting Wall Street day trader.

At the same time, maybe Snead’s “Eff them picks” heel turn was foreseeable. For the first 14 years of his career, Snead was a pro scout — not a college scout. He made his bones by evaluating actual NFL players, not draft prospects. That’s not to say that Snead is bad at drafting: This is the guy who selected DT Aaron Donald at No. 13 and WR Cooper Kupp in Round 3. But professionally he’s almost certainly more comfortable projecting known players than college players. Starting in 2017, it probably made sense — at least for Snead — to invest draft capital in players already in the league.

And whether it made sense or not, it worked, primarily because Snead had already gotten right the one decision that mattered most: Hiring McVay.

I have McVay ranked as the No. 5 HC in the NFL, behind only Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh. What all of those guys have over McVay is time: They’ve passed the test of longevity. And that means it’s easier to say with certainty year in and year out that their teams won’t be terrible.

The Rams were terrible last year.

But Tomlin and Harbaugh aren’t innovators. They’re not master game planners or play designers. They’re not even playcallers. They’re CEOs. They’re culture guys. If you valued what McVay does above what Tomlin and Harbaugh do, I wouldn’t argue with you. But football is a small-sample sport, and Tomlin and Harbaugh have proven themselves to be consistent and strong HCs across a significant timeframe. McVay hasn’t.

Even so, McVay might — might — already be the best HC in the league. He’s the youngest HC in history to win a Super Bowl and appear in multiple Super Bowls. It feels absurd to call a grown man a prodigy… but McVay might be a prodigy.

In 2016, the Rams were No. 32 in scoring with 14.0 points per game. Enter McVay, and the Rams — with many of the same players — are No. 1 with 29.9 points per game in 2017.

As an in-game decision-maker, McVay can veer conservative. He never met a short field goal he didn’t like. But as an offensive scheme builder, play designer and play-caller, he’s right up there with Reid… and he might be better than Reid, because he doesn’t have QB Patrick Mahomes.

On top of that, McVay has shown the rare ability to find ace assistants, empower them to succeed, watch them leave to advance their careers and then replace them with another cycle of ace assistants. McVay isn’t the typical “leader of men” HC — but he’s unquestionably a leader of coaching staffs.

With McVay, the question is not ability. It’s desire. Does he want to stay in the NFL? Now that he has won a Super Bowl, does he have the same obsessive drive to win at all costs?

After the Super Bowl victory, there was speculation that McVay might step away from the NFL for a TV gig — and that conjecture continued into and after the brutal 2022 campaign. He’s back with the team for 2023, but still questions about his investment in the team linger.

That said — in the words of Snead — “I’m buying stock in Sean McVay.”

I’m going to assume that the experience of 2022 has rekindled his competitive fire, and for now, he’s still the Rams HC. As long as that’s the case, the Rams will be a team with a high ceiling, even if their floor now seems to be basement-level low.

Sean McVay coaching record

• Years: 6
• Playoffs: 4
• Division Titles: 3
• Super Bowls: 2
• Championships: 1
• Win Total Record: 4-2
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -5.5
• Regular Season: 60-38 (.612)
• Playoff Record: 7-3 (.700)
• Against the Spread: 55-50-3 (2.0% ROI)
• Moneyline: 67-41 (-0.5% ROI)
• Over/Under: 49-59 (5.8% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur
• Offensive Playcaller: Sean McVay
• OL Coach: Ryan Wendell
• QBs Coach/Pass Game Coordinator: Zac Robinson
• RBs Coach: Ron Gould
• WRs Coach: Eric Yarber
• TEs Coach: Nick Caley
• Notable Turnover: OC Liam Coen (Kentucky), Senior Offensive Assistant Greg Olson (Seahawks), OL Coach Kevin Carberry (Saints), RBs Coach Ra'Shaad Samples (Arizona State), assistant HC/TEs Coach Thomas Brown (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

LaFleur has never worked before with McVay, but they have strong ties. They both belong to the Shanahan coaching tree: McVay worked for Mike and Kyle Shanahan on the 2010-13 Commanders, and LaFleur worked for Kyle on the 2014 Browns, 2015-16 Falcons and 2017-20 49ers. On top of that, LaFleur’s brother (Matt, the current Packers HC) served on the 2010-13 Commanders with McVay and then was his first OC in 2017.

LaFleur’s record as an OC is unexemplary. In both of his seasons with the Jets (2021-22), his offense was bottom-five in scoring and bottom-eight in yardage, but I doubt that will have any predictive value for how he performs this year. With the Jets he had to swim against the current of QB Zach Wilson’s incompetence deluge, but with the Rams he’ll be a passenger on McVay’s playcalling boat.

Given their common background and LaFleur’s delimited role, he should be able to install and manage the offense for McVay, although I think it’s a negative that he’s joining a staff that has experienced a lot of turnover since the team’s 2021 Super Bowl win.

Wendell joins the Rams this year after serving as the Bills assistant OL coach for the past four seasons. Before that, he played C/G in the NFL for nine years (2008-15 Patriots, 2016 Panthers) and started 49 games for the Patriots despite entering the league as an undrafted player.

Robinson was a 2010 seventh-rounder who spent four years in the NFL as a depth QB (2010 Patriots, Seahawks and Lions, 2011-13 Bengals) but never played in a regular season game.

After retiring, he worked as an independent QB coach and then a senior analyst at PFF before joining the Rams in 2019, starting out as the assistant QBs coach (2019, 2021) and assistant WRs coach (2020) and then advancing to the QBs coach/pass game coordinator role last year. 

Gould is a longtime college coach who started out as a DBs coach in the 1990s and then switched to RBs coach at California (1997-2012), whence he launched a cavalcade of backs — J.J. Arrington, Marshawn Lynch, Justin Forsett, Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen, and C.J. Anderson — to the NFL. After his time at Cal, he did stints as the UC Davis HC (2013-16) and Stanford RBs coach (2017-22) before joining the Rams this offseason.

Yarber is the only offensive coach who has been with McVay since 2017, when he joined the Rams as the WRs coach after bouncing between the college and NFL game for two decades. Under Yarber, the Rams have consistently gotten top-tier production out of the position and for years had the league’s best trio of WRs in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and a string of Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham.

Caley is a strong addition to the coaching staff after spending the past eight years with the Patriots, where TEs were integral to the offense.

With the Patriots, Caley started out as an offensive assistant (2015-16) and then was promoted to TEs coach (2017-22, with FBs in 2020-21). As such, he oversaw Rob Gronkowski’s final seasons in New England as well as Hunter Henry’s two recently successful campaigns (500-plus yards receiving in both, 8.3 yards per target, 11 touchdowns total).

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Raheem Morris
• assistant HC: Jimmy Lake
• DL Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Eric Henderson
• LBs Coach/Pass Rush Coordinator: Chris Shula
• Outside LBs Coach: Joe Coniglio
• Secondary Coach: Chris Beake
• DBs Coach/Pass Game Coordinator: Aubrey Pleasant
• Notable Turnover: Outside LBs Coach Thad Bogardus (Vikings), DBs Coach Jonathan Cooley (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Morris made his NFL bones with the 2000s Buccaneers, where he learned the Tampa-2 defense under DC Monte Kiffin and advanced from quality control coach (2002) to HC (2009-11) within a decade.

It was with the 2008 Buccaneers where Morris (DBs coach) first worked with McVay (assistant WRs coach) in his first year in the league. And then after his time in Tampa Bay, he reunited with McVay (TEs coach, then OC) as the DBs coach on the 2012-14 Commanders.

In 2015, Morris was hired by new Falcons HC Dan Quinn to be his assistant HC/defensive pass game coordinator, and then Morris’ career path took an intriguing turn: While retaining the assistant HC title, he switched in 2016 to the offensive side of the ball and became the WRs coach under OC Kyle Shanahan, with whom he had worked in Washington in 2012-13.

As such, he oversaw one of the league’s most explosive units with WRs Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, and Aldrick Robinson.

Once Shanahan left, Morris added offensive pass game coordinator to his dual title of assistant HC/WRs coach, and he held that position for three years under OCs Steve Sarkisian (2017-18) and Dirk Koetter (2019), and then in 2020 — to give Quinn (who had acted as DC the prior year) more opportunity to focus squarely on his HC duties — Morris shifted back to defense and assumed the position of DC.

When Quinn was fired after starting the year 0-5, Morris was elevated to interim HC and went 4-7.

In his 11 games as Falcons HC — when Quinn was no longer around to exert his influence over the defense — the team allowed only 23.0 points per game (vs. 32.2 in Weeks 1-5), which is an accomplishment considering the lack of talent the unit possessed.

After the Falcons hired HC Arthur Smith in January 2021, Morris left Atlanta and reunited again with McVay as the Rams DC in L.A., where he took over a defense that was No. 1 in points and yards the previous year. While Morris’ 2021 Rams unit wasn’t nearly as good (Nos. 15 and 17), it did tighten up significantly in the team’s Super Bowl run, when it held opponents to just 18.8 points per game.

Last year, though, his defense was even worse (Nos. 19 and 21), and this year it will almost certainly be worse still, as the team parted ways with almost all its key defensive veterans except for All-Pro DT Aaron Donald. This could be a tough — and final — year for Morris with the Rams. 

In theory, his time on the offensive side of the ball under three different OCs (especially Shanahan) should give Morris actionable insight into how offensive playcallers look to exploit the tendencies and weaknesses of defenses.

His uncommon experience should make him a more well-rounded defensive schemer. But I don’t think we’ve seen any evidence in support of this idea, and it might hurt him that his staff has seen significant turnover and shuffling since the Super Bowl win.

Lake joins the Rams this year as the assistant HC and — like Morris — is a DBs coach by trade. In fact, he was Morris’ assistant DBs coach on the 2007 Buccaneers and DBs coach on the 2010-11 Buccaneers.

Before reuniting with Morris, he was the HC at University of Washington (2020-21), where he had been since 2014, first as the DBs coach, then DC and finally HC. Lake’s tenure at Washington ended in scandal — he was suspended and then fired for a sideline altercation with a player — but he should be a fine helpmeet for Morris.  

Henderson played defensive end professionally for six years in the NFL (2006-08 Bengals) and UFL (2009-11 Locomotives) and then coached in the college ranks for five years (2012-16) before returning to the NFL as a coach. After two years with the Chargers as assistant DL coach (2017-18), he joined the Rams in 2019 as DL coach and added run game coordinator duties to his job description in 2021.

Shula is the son of former Bengals HC Dave Shula, the nephew of former Alabama HC Mike Shula and the grandson of Hall of Fame HC Don Shula. He played college ball at Miami (OH) with McVay — sometimes life is about who your family is and who you know — and then he joined the Rams in 2017 as assistant LBs coach after spending the previous two years with the Chargers as a quality control coach.

In 2019, Shula was promoted to outside LBs coach, and then in 2021 he was promoted again to LBs coach (supervising both outside LBs and offball LBs). Last year, he was bumped to DBs coach and given the additional title of defensive pass game coordinator — and now he’s shifting back to LBs coach and getting the additional honorific of pass rush coordinator.

Coniglio is a longtime college coach who most recently was the outside LB coach at Navy, where he coached up senior “striker” John Marshall (6-foot-2 and 209 pounds) from one sack in 2021 to an AAC-high 11.5 sacks in 2022 and team-high 96 tackles.  

Beake has been in the NFL since 1998 but has had a long and forward/backward journey to this point. A 49ers assistant for the first five years of his career, Beake was the LBs coach for the 2004-06 Falcons and saw Keith Brooking make two Pro Bowls under his guidance — and then he languished for the next 15 years.

He wasn’t even in football in 2007, and in 2008 he had to switch to the offensive side of the ball, where he stayed as a low-level assistant for five years. In 2013 he caught on with the Broncos as a defensive quality control coach, and he stayed with the organization for nine years — but in that time he managed to move up only to defensive pass game specialist, which is basically just a glorified assistant.

Finally, the Rams rescued Beake in 2022, made him their inside LBs coach and now have shifted him to secondary coach this year.

Pleasant worked with McVey in Washington as an offensive assistant (2013) and defensive quality control coach (2014-16) and then followed him to L.A., where he served as the Rams CBs coach for four years (2017-20).

After an abbreviated and ill-fated stint with the Lions as the defensive pass game coordinator/DBs coach (2021-22) and a short consulting gig with the Packers (2022), Pleasant has returned to the Rams.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Chase Blackburn
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Jeremy Springer
• Notable Turnover: ST Coordinator Joe DeCamillis (Univ. of Texas)

Blackburn played LB and special teams in the NFL for 10 years (2005-12 Giants, 2013-14 Panthers) before retiring and turning to coaching. He joins the Rams this year seven years in the NFL as a special teams coach (2016-17 Panthers assistant ST, 2018-21 Panthers coordinator and 2022 Titans assistant ST).

In Blackburn’s four years as the Panthers coordinator, his unit never finished better than No. 16 in special teams DVOA. Springer — the son of Jerry Springer, I’m speculating — joined the Rams last year as assistant ST coach after working in the college ranks for 11 years.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Matthew Stafford
• Backups: Stetson Bennett, Brett Rypien
• Notable Turnover: QBs Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), John Wolford (Buccaneers) and Bryce Perkins (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Matthew Stafford is a 35-year-old gunslinger who entered 2022 with a fragile surgically repaired elbow and exited it at the midway point with two concussions and a spinal contusion. When healthy, Stafford is a top-12 QB and top-tier pocket passer — but he’s not an elite player.

Despite being the No. 1 pro-style QB in the 2006 recruitment class and the No. 1 pick in the 2009 draft, and despite playing with WRs Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay throughout his time with the Lions, he made only one Pro Bowl in his 12 years in Detroit.

And in 2021 — the year he joined the Rams and finally won a Super Bowl — he led the league with 17 interceptions. He’s No. 11 on the all-time passing yardage list with 52,082 yards, and people talk about him as if he’s a likely Hall of Famer, but he’s not. And on top of that, his availability for 15-plus games is far from a certainty. Stafford is a good QB but not a great one.

Stetson Bennett and Brett Rypien will battle for the No. 2 QB job. Of the two, I prefer Bennett, a 25-year-old fourth-round rookie who walked on at Georgia in 2017, left to play a year at Jones College in 2018, transferred back to Georgia with a scholarship in 2019, started five games in 2020 and then led the Bulldogs to back-to-back national championships in 2021-22.

Bennett is small (5-foot-11 and 192 pounds), but he has good hand size (10-inches) and mobility (4.67-second 40-yard dash) and his production as a timing-based anticipatory passer speaks for itself (4,128 yards, 27 touchdowns passing in 2022, 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt for career, not counting junior college).

He feels like the kind of QB whose skill set could be maximally leveraged in McVay’s system.

Rypien is a 2019 UDFA who joins the Rams this year after spending the past four seasons with the Broncos. He was productive as a four-year starter at Boise State (13,578 yards, 90 touchdowns passing, 8.7 AY/A for his career), but his 3.8 AY/A in the NFL on 130 pass attempts is horrendous.

Projections as of Aug. 18.

Running Backs

• Starter: Cam Akers
• Backups: Kyren Williams, Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers
• Borderline: Royce Freeman
• Notable Turnover: Darrell Henderson (free agent) and Malcolm Brown (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Cam Akers is a 2020 second-rounder who arrived at Florida as a five-star recruit, left college early as a productive player (1,369 yards, 18 touchdowns from scrimmage in final season), entered the NFL as a 20-year-old prospect with a great athletic profile (4.47-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10 and 217 pounds), balled out as a three-down 21-year-old rookie with 708 yards in his final six games (including playoffs) — and then tore his Achilles in July 2021.

Amazingly, he returned to action at the end of his second season and was regularly used throughout the team’s postseason run to the Super Bowl, but he looked like a shell of himself (175 yards rushing on 72 carries in five games), and last year he saw minimal action and openly feuded with the team in the first half of the season.

But from Week 12 on, Akers started every game and was the focal point of the offense with 648 yards and six touchdowns on an efficient 4.9 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per target in seven games. In the post-Gurley era, McVay has been unwilling to commit himself to just one back, and Achilles injuries tend to limit the upside and longevity of RBs — but Akers might be a full-blown and productive workhorse in his 2023 contract year.

Kyren Williams is a 2022 fifth-rounder whose size (5-foot-9 and 194 pounds), lack of straight-line speed (4.65-second 40-yard dash), collegiate pass-catching production (77-672-4 receiving in final two seasons) and school of origin (Notre Dame) conjure the professional ghost of Theo Riddick.

Zach Evans is a five-star sixth-round rookie who failed to dominate usage at TCU and then Mississippi, but he was efficient (6.9 yards per carry, 7.2 yards per target, per Sports Info Solutions) and has the long-tailed upside to be a lead back.

Ronnie Rivers is a 2022 UDFA who played just 25 offensive and 36 special teams snaps for the Rams last year, but he started Week 1 of the preseason, which means he probably has a leg up on Royce Freeman, a 27-year-old journeyman who signed with the team at the end of July and has averaged 2.9 yards per carry and 4.6 yard per target over the past two years.

Projections as of Aug. 18.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek
• WR Backups: Tutu Atwell, Puka Nacua, Lance McCutcheon
• TE Starter: Tyler Higbee
• TE Backup: Brycen Hopkins, Hunter Long, Davis Allen
• Borderline: WR Demarcus Robinson
• Notable Turnover: WRs Allen Robinson (Steelers) and Brandon Powell (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Cooper Kupp is a 30-year-old slot dominator with the ability to play outside thanks to his route-running expertise. He missed half of last season with a high ankle sprain that required a minor-ish surgery, and then he exited an early-August training camp practice with a pulled hamstring, but he’s expected to be ready for Week 1.

Even so, soft-tissue injuries can linger and recur, so his progress should be monitored. If fully healthy entering the season, Kupp seems likely to approximate his production from the past two years, when he put up an absurd 253-3,237-28 receiving with 9.8 yards per target in 30 games (including playoffs). The 2021 Offensive Player of the Year, Kupp has a case to be made as the top WR in the league.

Van Jefferson is a 2022 second-rounder who has started 26 games over the past two years and been efficient with his opportunities (8.8 yards per target), but his overall production (74-1,171-9 receiving since 2021) is the stuff of a supplementary receiver, and his age (27 years old) makes him unlikely to enjoy a breakout at this stage of his career.

Ben Skowronek — “Bennett” to those in the know — is a 2021 seventh-rounder who last year served as a do-it-all joker in McVay’s offense, lining up at fullback and inline (in addition to outside and in the slot) throughout the season.

He’s a low-upside receiver (6.3 yards per target), but his versatility should grant him a role in the offense, although he will likely compete with Tutu Atwell and even Puka Nacua for playing time. 

Atwell is a 2021 second-rounder who entered the NFL as the smaller (5-foot-8 and 155 pounds) and less productive (623 yards, eight touchdowns from scrimmage in final season) version of Tavon Austin (5-foot-8 and 174 pounds; 1,932 yards and 15 touchdowns), whom Snead drafted No. 8 overall in 2013.

At this point, the Rams hope that he can have a peak season as good as Austin’s 2015 campaign (907 scrimmage yards, 10 all-purpose touchdowns). After doing nothing as a rookie (zero offensive touches), Atwell turned 308 snaps last year into 332 yards and two touchdowns on 35 targets and nine carries.

Nacua is a fifth-round rookie with good size (6-foot-1 and 206 pounds), sufficient speed (4.55-second 40-yard dash), decent college production (91-1,430-11 receiving in two years at BYU, No. 1 receiver both seasons) and an intriguing ball-in-his-hands skill set (39-357-5 rushing in final two seasons) that could make him a regular option on jet sweeps. He’s a potential long-term successor to Robert Woods’ vacated L.A. throne.

Lance McCutcheon is a 2022 UDFA with the size (6-foot-2 and 207 pounds) and agility (6.82-second three-cone) to play across the formation. Despite having no draft capital, he made the 53-man roster last year out of training camp thanks to his dominant preseason (league-high 259 yards and two touchdowns receiving on 20 targets).

He did nothing as a rookie (zero receptions on five targets, 56 offensive snaps), but he saw regular action on special teams and should beat out Robinson, a 28-year-old veteran who has no guaranteed money on his contract and has never had even 500 yards receiving in a season despite playing the prime of his career with QBs Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. 

Tyler Higbee is a 30-year-old Rams lifer who has started every game since 2017 and been with the team since his 2016 rookie campaign. He had a career-high 108 targets and 72 receptions last year, but over the past two seasons his efficiency has steeply declined (6.1 yards per target vs. 8.1 in the previous four years).

Despite playing primarily inline, Higbee is a mediocre-at-best run blocker, and the promise he exhibited at the end of 2019 (43-522-2 receiving on 56 targets in five games) remains unfulfilled. 

Brycen Hopkins is a 2020 fourth-rounder who has 285 snaps and 12 targets in three years. Hunter Long is a 2021 third-rounder whom the Rams acquired from the Dolphins this offseason in the Ramsey trade.

He was productive in college (he led BC with 57 receptions in his final season), but Hunter Long has exactly one NFL reception to his name.

Davis Allen is a fifth-round rookie with unexceptional size (6-foot-6 and 245 pounds), athleticism (4.84-second 40-yard dash) and production (39-443-5 receiving in final season).

Projections as of Aug. 18.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Joe Noteboom, LG Steve Avila, C Brian Allen, RG Coleman Shelton, RT Rob Havenstein
• Backups: T/G Alaric Jackson, G/T Tremayne Anchrum, T/G Logan Bruss, OT Warren McClendon
• Notable Turnover: LG David Edwards (Bills), OT Ty Nsekhe (free agent), C/Gs Matt Skura (free agent) and Jeremiah Kolone (free agent), OGs Oday Aboushi (free agent) and Chandler Brewer (Jaguars), G/T Bobby Evans (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Noteboom is a 2018 third-rounder who was terrible at LG in Weeks 1-6 of 2019 but good as the swing tackle in 2020-21. He stepped into the starting LT role last year and was livable, but he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 6 and missed the rest of the season.

He has 23 starts for the Rams over the past four years and has allowed just eight sacks on 980 pass rushes, but he’ll need to beat out Jackson for the LT job. If he doesn’t start on the blindside, he could be a candidate for RG.

Avila is an All-American second-round rookie who’s a Week 1 replacement for the departed Edwards at LG. He’s versatile — he started 15 games at LG, 16 at C, 1 RG and 2 RT at TCU — and he didn’t allow a sack in his final season. Allen is a 2018 fourth-rounder who has missed 34 games since 2019 to various injuries. (He was technically on the active roster in 2020, but he didn’t play a single snap as he recovered from a knee injury he suffered the previous year.)

When healthy Allen is an average-at-worst run blocker but poor pass protector (55 pressures on 1,276 pass rushes).

Shelton is a 2018 UDFA who has been with the Rams since 2019. Last year he played a career-high 720 snaps between C and RG and was good in pass blocking (71.3 PFF grade), but he has been a bankrupt run blocker throughout his career.

There’s a chance that he’s already behind Anchrum in the battle for the RG spot, but his overall experience (969 snaps vs. five) gives him an edge (in my opinion). Havenstein is a 31-year-old veteran who has been the team’s starting RT every year since his 2015 rookie season. He has never made a Pro Bowl, but he’s an above-average blocker in both phases and the one guy on this OL who can be unquestionably counted on.

Jackson is a 2021 UDFA. He started at RG last year in Weeks 3-6 and then shifted to LT because of injuries and started two games there before he went on IR with blood clots. Serviceable (though not exceptional) as a two-phase blocker, he’s a candidate to start at LT and maybe RG, where Anchrum is also competing for playing time.

The downside with Anchrum — a 2020 seventh-rounder — is that he has played five offensive snaps in three years and missed almost all of last season with a fractured fibula. The upside with Anchrum is that he was a strong player at Clemson, where he started 2.5 seasons and won two national titles.  

Bruss is a 2022 third-rounder who suffered ACL and MCL tears last preseason and missed all of his rookie year. He has T/G flexibility (he started 25 games at RT, six at RG at Wisconsin) but is unproven in the NFL.

McClendon is a four-star fifth-round rookie with three years of starting RT experience in the SEC and two national championships at Georgia, but he might need to kick inside to guard because of his lack of power. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Michael Hoecht, Byron Young
• EDGE Backups: Nick Hampton, Ochaun Mathis, Keir Thomas
• DT Starters: Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner
• DT Backups: Marquise Copeland, Bobby Brown, Jonah Williams, Earnest Brown
• Borderline: EDGE Daniel Hardy, DTs Larrell Murchison and Desjuan Johnson
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Leonard Floyd (Bills), Terrell Lewis (Bears) and Justin Hollins (Packers), DTs Greg Gaines (Buccaneers) and A’Shawn Robinson (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Hoecht is a 2020 UDFA who played football at Brown, practice squaded his first year with the Rams, played little in 2021 and then was the No. 2 EDGE on the team in snaps last season. Now that Floyd is gone, Hoecht will be the ostensible No. 1 EDGE, but he’s a poor pass rusher (five sacks in 282 opportunities) and average-at-best run defender (66.3 PFF grade last year).

Young is a 25-year-old third-round rookie with great athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds) and decent production (12.5 sacks in two seasons at Tennessee), but he’s a raw player with minimal technique.  

Hampton and Mathis are Day 3 rookies. Hampton was productive in his final two seasons (18 sacks, 27 tackles for loss), but he faced weak competition at Appalachian State and is undersized (6-foot-2 and 236 pounds).

Mathis was a four-year contributor at TCU (2019-21) and Nebraska (2022), but he never developed — in fact, he regressed — after his sophomore breakout season (eight sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss). Thomas is a 2022 UDFA who played 71 snaps last year and got zero pressures on 27 pass rushes.

All three of Hampton, Mathis and Thomas could lose their roster spot to Hardy, a 2022 seventh-rounder who had a 52.1 PFF grade as a rookie. 

Donald is a 32-year-old future Hall of Famer who might be the best overall player of our generation. In 2014, he won Defensive Rookie of the Year. Over the next seven years, he was a seven-time first-team All-Pro who won Defensive Player of the Year thrice and never finished outside the top five in voting. And then last season, with everything exploding around him, he merely made the Pro Bowl a ninth time in his nine-year career.

Elite in pass rush and run defense, Donald is one of the greatest football players of all time.

But with almost no support last year he was held to a career-low five sacks (albeit in 11 games), and he could have even less help this year. After Donald, the interior DL is a mess, and it’s hard to predict who will start alongside him or even make the team.

Turner is a third-round rookie who had 43.5 tackles for loss in college, but he might lack the size (6-foot-2 and 288 pounds) to anchor against the run in the NFL.

Copeland is a 2019 UDFA who last year performed well as a rotational player against the run (73.5 PFF grade) but has zero sacks for his career.

Bobby Brown is the name of a character in a Quentin Tarantino movie, probably. He’s also a 2021 fourth-rounder with nine tackles in two years.

Williams is a 2020 UDFA who played a career-high 342 snaps last year and had a career-low 53.6 PFF grade. Earnest Brown is a 2021 fifth-rounder with inside/outside versatility, which means that he sucks almost equally in run defense (48.9 PFF grade) and in pass rush (49.1).

Murchison is a 2020 fifth-rounder with 21 tackles and two sacks in three years. Johnson is a seventh-round rookie who might be the smallest interior DL in the league (6-foot-3 and 252 pounds).

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Ernest Jones, Christian Rozeboom
• Backups: Jake Hummel
• Notable Turnover: Bobby Wagner (Seahawks)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Jones headlines a toilet paper-thin off-ball unit screaming for help after the offseason departure of Wagner. A 2021 third-rounder, Jones is good against the run but a liability in coverage (51.2 PFF grade).

Rozeboom is a 2020 UDFA special teams ace who has played 10 defensive snaps in his career. Hummel is a 2022 UDFA who got four tackles as a rookie… all of them on special teams.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Ahkello Witherspoon, Derion Kendrick, Cobie Durant
• CB Backups: Tre'Vius Tomlinson, Robert Rochell
• S Starters: John Johnson, Jordan Fuller
• S Backups: Russ Yeast, Quentin Lake, Jason Taylor
• Borderline: CB Jordan Jones
• Notable Turnover: CBs Jalen Ramsey (Dolphins), Troy Hill (free agent) and David Long (Raiders), SS Taylor Rapp (Bills), FS Nick Scott (Bengals) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Witherspoon is the theoretical No. 1 CB in a secondary missing all five DBs from last year’s Week 1 nickel package. A 28-year-old journeyman who has been with the 49ers, Seahawks, Steelers and now Rams since early 2020, Witherspoon missed most of last year due to a hamstring injury, but in his four games with the Steelers he had a 42.8 PFF coverage grade.

Kendrick and Durant are Day 3 second-year players slated to start. Kendrick allowed 10.2 yards per target when pressed into action last season. Durant played well in coverage (74.3 PFF grade) as a rookie, but that was on limited action (281 snaps), and he’s a slot-bound defender because of his size (5-foot-11 and 180 pounds).

Tomlinson (nephew of Hall of Fame RB LaDainian Tomlinson) is a Thorpe Award-winning sixth-round rookie with great production (15 passes defended, three interceptions in 2022), speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash) and physicality in coverage and run defense — but he’s incredibly undersized (5-foot-8 and 178 pounds).

Rochell is a 2021 fourth-rounder who played plentifully (323 snaps) and poorly (49.3 PFF grade) on special teams last year. Jones is a 2023 UDFA who hasn’t been hyped during training camp, but he started at slot corner in Week 1 of the preseason, so he now has my attention. That said, he allowed 65 yards receiving and seven receptions on eight targets and 33 snaps, so I’m back to ignoring him.

Johnson is a 2017 third-rounder who played for the Rams for his first four seasons, did a two-year stint with the Browns, and now has returned to L.A. With the Browns, Johnson was used primarily as a deep safety — and his performance suffered — but with the Rams he played more in the box, where he was regularly strong in coverage and against the run.

While most depth charts list Johnson at FS, I could see him shifting back to SS this year, which would then enable Fuller (a league-average 2020 sixth-rounder) to play FS, where he has lined up most with the Rams over the past three years.  

Yeast and Lake are both Day 3 second-year backups who contribute most on special teams. Taylor (no relation to the Hall of Famer with the same name) is a seventh-round rookie with a good athletic profile (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 204 pounds), and the ability to play both safety spots and contribute on special teams. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Tanner Brown
• Punter: Ethan Evans
• Holder: Ethan Evans
• Long Snapper: Alex Ward
• Kick Returner: Tutu Atwell
• Punt Returner: Tutu Atwell
• Notable Turnover: K Matt Gay (Colts), P Riley Dixon (Broncos), LS Matt Orzech (Packers), KR/PR Brandon Powell (Vikings)

Brown is a 2023 UDFA who was a first-team All-American punter and second-team All-American kicker in the junior college ranks at College of the Canyons before transferring to UNLV and then Oklahoma State, where he converted all but one of his 23 field goal attempts as a senior. 

Evans is a small-school seventh-round rookie who started all four years of college and averaged 45.7 yards per punt as a Division II first-team All-American senior. A jacked 6-foot-4 and 231 pounds, Evans is not your typical punter. Ward is a 2023 UDFA who was the No. 1 LS for four years at UCF and a finalist for the Patrick Mannelly Award (given to the best LS in college football) in his two final seasons.

Atwell was a subpar return man as a rookie (5.4 yards per punt, 17.4 yards per kick), but with Powell gone he’s the seeming frontrunner to be the team’s top returner in 2023. I feel like there’s some sort of larger lesson in there.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Rams’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 14
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-5
• Opponents: at SEA, vs. SF, at CIN, at IND, vs. PHI

The Rams have a moderate schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents, but their opening stretch could threaten to sabotage the entire campaign.

In the first month of the season, they play three-of-four away. In Weeks 1-2 they have divisional matchups as sizable underdogs against the Seahawks and 49ers. They could lose both games. After that, they travel East as underdogs of more than a touchdown to play the Bengals on Monday Night Football.

Let’s say they’re 0-3 — and then in Week 4 they have another road game (with a one-day rest disadvantage) in the Eastern Time Zone in Indianapolis vs. the Colts, who aren’t a tough opponent, but the circumstances could present a challenge if the Rams choose to travel back to L.A. between games instead of staying in the Midwest. Let’s say that the Rams suffer a situation-based loss. That makes them 0-4 — and then they return home as underdogs of almost a touchdown to host the Eagles: 0-5.

As bad as 2022 was for the Rams, 2023 could feel even worse if the team underwhelms in its opening stretch.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Rams.

• HC Sean McVay begins to question his abilities after a tough 0-5 start, which results in his decision to relinquish playcalling duties.
• OC Mike LaFleur proves with his inept playcalling that he was part of the problem with the 2021-22 Jets offense.
• DC Raheem Morris coordinates the worst defense in football, including the CFL.
• QB Matthew Stafford suffers a concussion in Week 6 and opts to sit out until the team returns from its Week 10 bye.
• RB Cam Akers is benched in Week 7 on Monday Night Football after he and McVay are caught on TV yelling at each other on the sideline, and the team cuts him the next day. 
• WR Cooper Kupp is sent to the 49ers at the trade deadline early in Week 9.
• The OL plays like a unit that has no first-rounders on it.
• EDGEs Michael Hoecht and Byron Young combine for six sacks.
• DT Aaron Donald suffers a Week 8 hamstring injury, which is just significant enough to keep teams from trading for him at the Oct. 31 deadline.
• LBs Ernest Jones and Christian Rozeboom are so bad in coverage that Morris starts experimenting with personnel packages of four DLs and seven DBs.
• The CBs struggle with continuity, consistency and communication all year, culminating in a Week 18 humiliation at the hands of Kupp, who goes off against them for 12-177-3 receiving in a 38-13 victory that clinches the No. 1 seed for the 49ers.
• K Tanner Brown, P Ethan Evans and LS Alex Ward all play like rookies and separately commit game-losing mistakes in the first half of the season.
• Rams finish 5-12 (which gives them no chance to get a top QB in the draft), McVay retires from football two days after the 49ers win the Super Bowl (the timing of which gives the Rams a reduced chance of hiring a top candidate), the team names Morris as the new HC in late February (which is an uninspiring decision) and then Stafford and Donald announce their retirements in late March (which is after the rush of free agency, so the Rams have fewer replacement options available to them at QB and DT).

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Rams.

• HC Sean McVay has the best pure playcalling season of his career and displays a heretofore unseen in-game decision-making aggressiveness that would make Kevin Kelley swoon.
• OC Mike LaFleur morphs himself into a human glove for McVay’s metaphorical hand.
• DC Raheem Morris smoke-and-mirrors his way to a No. 19 defensive finish in scoring.
• QB Matthew Stafford plays all 17 games and passes for 4,500-plus yards.
• RB Cam Akers puts up 1,500 yards from scrimmage.
• WR Cooper Kupp — thanks to a Week 18 onslaught against the 49ers — becomes the first player in NFL history with 2,000 yards receiving and wins Offensive Player of the Year for the second time in three seasons.
• The OL — full of guys who have been together for years — plays like a league-average unit with established continuity.
• EDGEs Michael Hoecht and Byron Young combine for 12 sacks.
• DT Aaron Donald leads the league with 25 tackles for loss and racks up 15 sacks as he finishes with yet another first-team All-Pro and No. 2 in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
• LBs Ernest Jones and Christian Rozeboom play just well enough in coverage to avoid being clear defensive marks.
• The CBs begin to play with a unified and physical “come and get it” attitude whenever Tre’Vius Tomlinson is inserted into the starting lineup in Week 3, and by the final month of the season the secondary is playing well enough to masquerade as mediocre.
• K Tanner Brown, P Ethan Evans, and LS Alex Ward prove that it pays to go cheap at the specialist positions.
• Rams finish 11-6, defeat the Saints on the road thanks to a controversial no-call on a pass interference penalty, upset the 49ers on the road as McVay outduels Shanahan with his play design and sequencing, and then finally lose by 13 points on the road to the Eagles in the NFC Championship. 

In-season angles

I view the Rams as a strong “bet against” team, but one with a wide range of outcomes that I’ll be quick to adjust my prior assumptions on based on how it looks early in the year.

That said, if there were any points this year when I’d think about betting on the Rams, the season opener would probably be one of them.

• McVay in Week 1: 5-1 ATS (62.0% ROI)
• McVay in Week 1: 5-1 ML (31.4% ROI)

And I might consider McVay following a defeat or as underdog — but only ATS, because I don’t trust this team on the ML.

• McVay Off a Loss: 22-13-2 ATS (21.0% ROI)
• McVay as Underdog: 17-13-1 ATS (10.1% ROI)

For fading the Rams, I think it’s notable that McVay has performed poorly against perhaps the two offensive HCs who know him the best.

• McVay vs. Shanahan: 3-10 ATS (46.5% ROI for faders)
• McVay vs. Shanahan: 4-9 ML (46.1% ROI for faders)
• McVay vs. Matt LaFleur: 0-3 ATS (93.3% ROI for faders)
• McVay vs. Matt LaFleur: 0-3 ML (53.8% ROI for faders)

The main reason I think the Rams are fadable is their defense, which I have ranked No. 32. Their offense, though, I expect to be no worse than average — and if Stafford is fully healthy, then the offense could be in the top 10.

And that leads me to overs. When the Rams are underdogs and thus in a position where we can reasonably expect them to give up points and need to score points to catch up, I believe the overs will be exploitable.

Sometimes games unfold differently for teams based on whether they’re at home or on the road, but that hasn’t been the case with the Rams. As underdogs, they’ve been profitable to the over regardless of location.

• McVay Home Over as Underdog: 6-3 (29.8% ROI)
• McVay Road Over as Underdog: 13-9 (14.8% ROI)

When I say that the Rams are a “bet against” team, what I really mean is this: They have a “bet against” defense.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a low-hold market on the Rams win total.

• Over 6.5: +110 (FanDuel)
• Under 6.5: -115 (DraftKings)

In such a market, where the sportsbooks collectively have only a 1.11% edge, we have more of a margin for error than usual and thus more incentive to take a shot.

And I have the Rams projected for 6.9 wins, which means that I technically see value on the over, especially at plus odds.

But I hate betting the over on win totals. Hate. Actual hatred. Boiling rage.

Firstly, the win total market tends to be inflated, so why would I want to bet an over in a market that I know is unfriendly to overs?

Secondly, if I’m bullish on a team — and for the purposes of talking about the Rams in relation to this bet we can say that I’m relatively bullish — why would I want to lock up my money for about five months to get a pay off of only +110 odds? If I like a team enough to think that it’s mispriced in one market, then maybe that means it’s also mispriced in another market — one that offers odds far longer than +110.

And that leads me to this bet.

Rams to Win NFC (+4500, DraftKings) 

As I said earlier, the Rams have a wide range of outcomes. This team (sort of “this team”) won a Super Bowl just 18 months ago. It still has the same HC/DC combo, QB/WR tandem and HOF DT.

If I like this team to go over 6.5 wins, then that probably means I’m assuming a number of factors that could carry this team far beyond just 6.5 wins.

If the Rams go over 6.5 wins, then there’s a pretty decent chance that McVay is on his game, Stafford and Kupp are healthy and Donald is playing near his peak. Now, if that’s the case… shouldn’t I expect the Rams to have a decent chance to make the playoffs in a soft conference?

Their odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings are +310. If I like the Rams over 6.5 wins, why wouldn’t I just bet them to get into the postseason?

And we can take this a step further.

Imagine that the Rams are in the playoffs. What does that mean? What is likely to have happened to put them in that position?

If McVay is on his game and Stafford and Kupp are healthy, the offense could be in the top 10. Maybe the top six. I think the OL is terrible, but we’ve seen how good playcallers — especially in a West Coast system — can scheme around OL inadequacies.

I also think the defense is horrible, but defenses are hard to project and can be extremely volatile year to year. And if Donald is playing near his peak, he alone could elevate the entire unit from horrendous to almost average.

And if this team is better than we expect — if it’s competing to win the NFC West as we approach the deadline — what’s to stop swashbuckling GM Les Snead from making some trades to acquire veterans who can contribute right away and upgrade their various units? He has done it before.

So if the Rams are in the playoffs, there’s a decent chance that they will have a top-10 offense, an average-ish defense and maybe even a somewhat reinforced roster.

Could a team with those features win enough postseason games in a weak conference to make the Super Bowl? Yes — because it happened with the Rams two years ago.

If I’m willing to bet over 6.5 wins, then I should probably be willing to bet the Rams to make the playoffs or maybe win their division. And if I’m willing to do that… then I might as well bet them to win the NFC.

It’s not likely to happen, but that’s why the odds are +4500.

You can tail the 45/1 longshot on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below!