2023 Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

Last year was a “best of times, worst of times” season for the Miami Dolphins. They went 9-8 and made the playoffs under new HC Mike McDaniel. Their offense was explosive as QB Tua Tagovailoa averaged a league-high 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt. The team’s play helped the fanbase forget about the scandals involving the firing of former HC Brian Flores and the recruitment of Sean Payton, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. Last year was an unquestioned success for the organization.

At the same time, the defense regressed to No. 24 in scoring as the team allowed more points (399) than it scored (397). Tagovailoa suffered a series of concussions, causing him to miss the postseason game (as well as several others) and placing his NFL future in doubt. The team lost its 2023 first-rounder (and 2024 third-rounder), and owner Stephen Ross was fined $1.5M and suspended for six games. 

Last year ended with some serious questions. This year, the Dolphins hope to answer those questions with more wins, more points and more defense on the way to a Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Dolphins preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Dolphins preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Miami Dolphins offseason odds

Odds as of June 28. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 28. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Miami Dolphins 2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 28.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 28.

Miami Dolphins General Manager and Head Coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Chris Grier
• Head Coach: Mike McDaniel
• Team Power Rating: +2.25
• Team Power Ranking: No. 9
• Coach Ranking: No. 16

Grier got his start in the NFL the old-fashioned way — working for his dad. His father (Bobby) worked for the Patriots for 20 years (1981-2000), starting out as a scout/RBs coach before transitioning to a full-time executive role as the director of pro scouting (1993-95), which turned into director of player personnel (1995-97) and then VP of player personnel (1997-2000). 

In 1994, Bobby hired his son as an intern and then made him a scout, in which role he served for a half-decade (1995-99) before striking out on his own in 2000 to join the Dolphins, where he worked his way up from scout (2000-02) to assistant director of college scouting (2003-07) and director of college scouting (2007-15) before ascending to the GM role in 2016.

Because of his extended tenure with the team, Grier has a strong understanding of organizational history and processes: He knows where bodies are buried — and has probably buried a few himself. That’s how he has been able to last so long in Miami. 

Throughout his time with the Dolphins, he has witnessed the entirety of seven coaching regimes and four GM regimes. He has even seen an ownership change. And he hasn’t just survived. He has thrived, consolidating power along the way. 

In 2016, he was named GM — but it wasn’t until 2019, when he fired HC Adam Gase, that he took control of all football operations by “demoting” Mike Tannenbaum (EVP of football operations), who had been in power before Grier became GM and with whom he shared authority.

Grier has been GM for seven seasons, and he’s already on his third coach. Most GMs get 1-2 HCs. Very few get three — and if they do they normally have a strong history of winning and don’t do it this quickly. As GM, Grier hasn’t been horrible, but he’s not a winner (56-58 in the regular season, 0-2 in playoffs), and he has moved on from two coaches after just three years apiece.

As a decision-maker, Grier has been good. After gaining full control, he moved on from Gase, traded QB Ryan Tannehill and rebuilt the team via an infusion of youth and draft picks. That was sharp, as was trading for WR Tyreek Hill and EDGE Bradly Chubb last year and CB Jalen Ramsey this year. And although I don’t think Flores was bad, McDaniel is probably an upgrade. 

The HC change last offseason was a net positive. And as a former scout, Grier has been a steady evaluator of talent. Every GM has some misses — but most of Grier’s first- and second-round picks have turned into good NFL players (or at least regular starters), beginning with OT Laremy Tunsil (1) and CB Xavien Howard (2) in 2016 and continuing to WR Jaylen Waddle (1), EDGE Jaelan Phillips (1), S Jevon Holland (2) and OL Liam Eichenberg (2) in 2021. 

Grier’s process has been good, and the result has been three winning seasons (10-6, 9-8, 9-8) since the rebuild — but not one of those seasons was accompanied by a postseason win. This far removed from the 2019 season, Grier needs to see the Dolphins get past the first round of the playoffs if he doesn’t want a hot seat. This team is in “win-now” mode.

I think McDaniel can win now, given that he won right away last year despite Tagovailoa’s health issues. I don’t want to react too strongly to just one season of data, but McDaniel last year looked like one of the league’s most inventive schemers and play-callers. He unlocked Tagovailoa, who was No. 2 in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (per RBs Don’t Matter). 

The system got Hill and Waddle open at will and set them up with significant yard-after-catch opportunities. The team was No. 10 in early-down pass rate, and the offense jumped from No. 25 in yards to No. 6. At times, McDaniel looked like he was in possession of a celestial offensive vibe that others dare not dream of.

He comes by it honestly as a dyed-in-the-wool Shanahan disciple. Before last year, literally, every season McDaniel had spent in the NFL was with a Shanahan organization. His first job in the league was a coaching internship with the 2005 Broncos under HC Mike Shanahan. After that, he worked on the 2006-08 Texans as an offensive assistant with Kyle Shanahan (2006 WRs coach, 2007 QBs coach, 2008 OC). 

After a two-year stint in the UFL, McDaniel worked with both Shanahans on the 2011-13 Redskins as an assistant and then WRs coach, after which he continued to serve Shanahan the Younger on the 2014 Browns (WRs coach), 2015-16 Falcons (assistant) and 2017-21 49ers (run game coordinator, then OC). Of all the Shanahan acolytes who are NFL HCs, McDaniel was with him first. He’s Shanahan’s Andrew.

As HC, McDaniel seems relatively sharp. He could be better as a communicator with the press. There were a few times last year — especially relating to Tagovailoa’s injury — when McDaniel said some head-scratching stuff. But as a decision maker he has been on point. 

In his first year, he brought some of his own people with him from the 49ers, but he also let a few incumbent offensive coaches stay on the staff (in the same or diminished roles) so that there would be organizational continuity. He additionally kept DC Josh Boyer from the previous regime and allowed Boyer to retain his coaches for the sake of a smoother transition. That was a good idea — as was firing Boyer after the season and replacing him with innovative DC Vic Fangio. With his staff, McDaniel has made the right moves at the right time. 

Mike McDaniel coaching record

• Years: 1
• Playoffs: 1
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 0-0-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.0
• Regular Season: 9-8 (.529)
• Playoff Record: 0-1 (.000)
• Against the Spread: 9-9 (-3.8% ROI)
• Moneyline: 9-9 (-14.7% ROI)
• Over/Under: 9-9 (-3.9% ROI, Over)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 Dolphins team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Dolphins offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Frank Smith
• Offensive Playcaller: Mike McDaniel
• OL Coach: Butch Barry
• QBs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Darrell Bevell
• Assoc. HC/RBs Coach: Eric Studesville
• WRs Coach: Wes Welker
• Asst. HC/TEs Coach: Jon Embree
• Notable Turnover: OL Coach Matt Applebaum (Boston College)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Smith was an unexpected choice as McDaniel’s OC. Prior to joining the Dolphins in 2022, Smith had worked in the NFL for 12 years. In that period, he and McDaniel never worked together. 

He never worked with any Shanahan assistant. And he never coordinated an offense. But what probably appealed to McDaniel was Smith’s holistic, bottom-up and run-focused view of offenses thanks to his time as an assistant (2010-11 Saints), assistant OL coach (2012-14 Saints), TEs coach (2015-17 Bears, 2018-20 Raiders) and run game coordinator/OL coach (2021 Chargers). 

And maybe McDaniel even liked that Smith wasn’t from the Shanahan coaching tree and didn’t see the game exactly as he did. That could free Smith up to question McDaniel’s assumptions and push him to grow as an offensive designer. 

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) takes the field before the start of the game against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Jan. 8, 2023.

Regardless of why McDaniel chose Smith, their partnership worked last year. The scheme and playcalling belong to McDaniel, but Smith handles everything else, and he’s returning almost his entire staff.

Barry is a longtime college coach who jumped to the NFL in 2015 and has been an assistant in the league almost every year since then. He worked with McDaniel as the assistant OL coach on the 2021 49ers and now is making the move from San Francisco to replace Applebaum. 

Bevell — like Smith — has no direct Shanahan tie-in but a wealth of experience. Since joining the NFL in 2000, he has been a position coach for QBs Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers (2003-05 Packers), an OC for RB Adrian Peterson (2006-10 Vikings), QB Russell Wilson and RB Marshawn Lynch (2011-17 Seahawks), QB Matthew Stafford (2019-20 Lions), QB Trevor Lawrence (2021 Jaguars) and a two-time interim HC. Given his experience and previous jobs, he’s a tremendous resource for McDaniel as pass game coordinator and Tua Tagovailoa as coach.

Studesville played DB in college and started his coaching career on the defensive side of the ball, but he switched to offense when he made the leap to the NFL in 1997 and quickly became a position coach (WRs with the 1999-2000 Bears). In 2001 he joined the Giants as RBs coach and has been a backfield guy ever since. As such, he has survived six coaching changes across three teams (2004-09 Bills, 2010-17 Broncos, and 2018-2022 Dolphins), which speaks to his professionalism and ability to implement concepts across schemes. 

He and Welker (who came with McDaniel from the 49ers) were both on the 2013-14 Broncos (as coach and player), and it was with the Super Bowl-winning 2015-16 Broncos that Studesville proved himself in a Shanahan-style offense under HC Gary Kubiak. 

Like Bevell, he’s probably overqualified for his job and is a valuable source of wisdom for both McDaniel and the backfield, given what his RBs have accomplished (starting with Tiki Barber). 

Welker was a two-time first-team All-Pro WR who thrice led the league in receptions and got the most out of his limited physical ability thanks to technical prowess and knowledge of the game. Before playing alongside Hall-of-Fame QBs Tom Brady (2007-12 Patriots) and Peyton Manning (2013-14 Broncos), he cemented his place in the NFL with the 2004-06 Dolphins. After retiring, he was an assistant on the 2017-18 Texans and then worked with McDaniel on the 2019-21 49ers as the WRs coach and followed him to Miami in his current role. 

Embree (a four-year NFL TE)  has been coaching WRs and TEs for almost every season since 1992, starting in the high school ranks and working his way up. As a TEs coach for five NFL teams (prior to the Dolphins), he oversaw the most productive three-year stretch of Tony Gonzalez’s career (2006-08 Chiefs) and mentored Chris Cooley (2010 Redskins), Jordan Cameron (2013 Browns), Cameron Brate (2014-16 Buccaneers) and George Kittle (2017-21 49ers) to the career-best seasons. A bona fide TE whisperer, Embree worked with McDaniel on the 2017-21 49ers and joined him on the Dolphins last year in his current role.

2023 Offensive Unit Rankings

2023 Dolphins defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Vic Fangio
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Wade Harman
• DL Coach: Austin Clark
• Outside LBs Coach: Ryan Slowik
• LBs Coach: Anthony Campanile
• Passing Game Coordinator/Secondary Coach: Renaldo Hill
• CBs Coach/Pass Game Specialist: Sam Madison
• Safeties Coach: Joe Kasper
• Notable Turnover: DC Josh Boyer (free agent), Outside LBs Coach Tyrone McKenzie (free agent), Safeties Coach Steve Gregory (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Fangio was an inspired offseason hire and an instant upgrade on Boyer. He has been coaching defense since 1979, working his way up from high school to prep academy to college to the original USFL and finally to the NFL, where he has been every year since 1986 (except his one-year stint as the 2010 Stanford DC). Outside of Patriots HC Bill Belichick, Fangio might be the best defensive schemer and play-caller still in the game.

As the LBs coach for the 1986-94 Saints, Fangio oversaw a unit that spearheaded a defense that was top-eight in scoring six times, and as the DC for the expansion 1995-96 Panthers, he created a unit that was top-eight in scoring its first two years in existence. 

As LBs coach and special assistant to HCs Brian Billick and John Harbaugh, Fangio helped give the 2006-09 Ravens their defensive mojo, and as the DC for the 2011-14 49ers he built a unit that was top-five in yards and top-10 in scoring every year. 

With the 2015-18 Bears, he coordinated a defense that was No. 31 in scoring the year before he arrived and was No. 1 his final year there. With the 2019-21 Broncos, he coached a team that was good in defensive scoring when he got there (No. 13) and elite when he left (No. 3).

The Dolphins' defense was No. 6 in scoring in 2020, and it probably has more talent now than it had then. To get this unit in the top eight Fangio doesn’t need to be a miracle worker — but that’s what he is.

Joining the Dolphins to serve as Fangio’s senior defensive assistant is Harman… I think. “Wade Harman” is a respected coach who worked with McDaniel on the 2015-16 Falcons and with Fangio on the 2006-09 Ravens and 2019-21 Broncos. So it would make sense for him to be on the 2023 Dolphins. 

The thing is… he’s a longtime TEs coach. There’s no record of him ever coaching defense going back to 1987, when he was a graduate assistant at Utah State. So either Harman is making a late-career switch to the other side of the ball… or he has a son named “Wade Harman.”

Clark is a Flores holdover who jumped from the college ranks to the Dolphins in 2020 as outside LBs coach and then moved up to DL coach in 2021. Slowik joined the team last year as a senior defensive assistant and is moving to outside LBs to replace McKenzie.

While Slowik has had a number of jobs over the past two decades, he worked as outside LBs coach with the 2012 Cardinals and 2016 Browns. He and McDaniel both broke into the NFL on the 2005 Broncos staff, and his brother (Bobby) was with the 2011-13 Redskins and the 2017-21 49ers and worked directly with McDaniel in their final three seasons together (offensive assistant, then pass game specialist).

Even his father (Bob) has been on a staff with McDaniel (2011-13 Redskins). Campanile is another Flores holdover who joined the Dolphins from the college game in 2020. He has been the LBs coach since then and has overseen a good unit. 

Hill is a Fangio addition to the staff. He played 10 years in the NFL with 114 starts and saw time all over the secondary, transitioning from perimeter corner to nickel back to free safety throughout his career. He played for the Dolphins in 2006-08 and eventually got his first NFL coaching job with them in 2018 as an assistant, which he leveraged into a spot on Fangio’s 2019-20 Broncos as DBs coach.

He disappointed as the 2021-22 Chargers DC, but as a position coach and Fangio’s pass game coordinator, he should do well.

Madison was a second-round pick for the Dolphins in 1997, and he played for them for nine years (1997-2005) as a two-time first-team All-Pro and four-time Pro Bowler. After retiring, Madison took time off from the game but returned as the secondary and CBs coach for the 2019-21 Chiefs.

When McDaniel took the Dolphins HC job, he brought Madison back to Miami in his current role. Kasper is coming from the 2021-22 Eagles (quality control) to join the Dolphins for his first NFL position gig as the safeties replacement for Gregory.

He crossed paths with McDaniel on the 2014 Browns, where he was a player personnel and development assistant before moving into coaching.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Danny Crossman
• Assistant Special Teams Coach: Brendan Farrell

Crossman has been coaching special teams in the NFL for 20 years and coordinating for the past 16 years (2007-09 Panthers, 2010-12 Lions, 2013-18 Bills, 2019-22 Dolphins). He’s yet another Flores holdover, as is Farrell, who joined the Dolphins in 2019 after six seasons (2013-18) as a special teams analyst at Alabama.

Projected Dolphins 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Tua Tagovailoa
• Backups: Mike White, Skylar Thompson
• Notable Turnover: Teddy Bridgewater (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Tua Tagovailoa was the No. 5 pick in 2020 and the initial target of the “Tank for Tua” 2019 campaign. Expected to go No. 1 overall entering his final college season, he slipped in the draft after he suffered a career-threatening hip injury, which resulted in white-glove treatment for the first half of his rookie year. 

Although he struggled in his first two years with injuries and OC issues, he had a strong first season with McDaniel (3,548 yards, 25 TDs passing to just 8 INT in 13 games), but he also suffered multiple concussions and thought about retiring this offseason. The team has picked up his fifth-year option, and he looked (to me) like an emerging franchise QB in 2022, but his future is uncertain.

Mike White is a 28-year-old journeyman who showed some spirit in eight games with the 2021-22 Jets (62.2% completion rate, 2,145 yards passing). He’ll replace Bridgewater as the veteran backup while Skylar Thompson continues to develop. A 2022 seventh-rounder, Thompson did not look at all ready to play in the team’s postseason loss (18-of-45 passing, 3.3 AY/A, four sacks).

Projections as of June 28.

Running Backs

• Starter: Raheem Mostert
• Backups: Jeff Wilson, De’Von Achane, Salvon Ahmed
• Fullback: Alec Ingold
• Borderline: Myles Gaskin
• Notable Turnover: Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Raheem Mostert is a 31-year-old speedster who has played for McDaniel for the past six seasons. With 5.4 yards per carry for his career, he’s a playmaking back who can still produce (1,093 yards from scrimmage last year), but he has missed 25 games since 2020 and lacks the size (5-foot-10 and 205 pounds) to be a reliable committee leader. The Dolphins could look to add a veteran like Dalvin Cook to be the No. 1 back.

Jeff Wilson — like Mostert — played for McDaniel on the 49ers for 2018-21, and then the Dolphins traded for him last year as a midseason replacement to the underwhelming Chase Edmonds. 

Although he’s probably incapable of being a lead back, he does have good size (6-foot and 213 pounds) and — like Mostert — just had his first season with 1,000-plus yards in 2022. 

De'Von Achane is a third-round rookie with regrettable size (5-foot-9 and 188 pounds) and track-star speed (4.32-second 40-yard dash) — but he’s more than a sprinter. In his final two college seasons he played as a strong change-of-pace and then a workhorse to put up 2,469 yards and 21 touchdowns in 22 games. He should get opportunities early in the year and could be the lead back at the season’s end if he makes the most of them.

Salvon Ahmed is a 2020 undrafted free agent who has played fewer snaps and gotten fewer opportunities each year. In 2022, he had just 72 yards on 70 snaps, 12 carries, and a target. Although he played ahead of Myles Gaskin last year, he could lose his roster spot to the 2019 seventh-rounder in training camp. 

Of the two, Gaskin’s the only one with 2,056 career scrimmage yards. Ingold is a typical 27-year-old veteran lead blocker. He offers nothing as a runner (1.4 yards per carry), but he does a decent-ish Kyle Juszczyk impersonation if you squint (43-344-4 receiving on 58 career targets).

Projections as of June 28.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios
• WR Backups: Robbie Chosen, Cedrick Wilson, River Cracraft
• TE Starter: Durham Smythe
• TE Backups: Tyler Kroft, Eric Saubert, Tanner Conner
• Borderline: WR Erik Ezukanma, TE Elijah Higgins
• Notable Turnover: WR Trent Sherfield (Bills), TEs Mike Gesicki (Patriots) and Hunter Long (Rams)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Tyreek Hill is a 29-year-old next-generation Steve Smith clone who has managed to outperform the original version. A four-time first-team All-Pro, he has made the Pro Bowl every season of his seven-year career. 

Last year he was traded away from QB Patrick Mahomes — the NFL’s best passer — and yet he still hit career highs with 170 targets, 119 receptions, and 1,710 yards receiving. Hill is expected to be charged with assault and battery for an incident that allegedly occurred in June (he has a history of off-field violence), but on the field, he could be even better in his second season with the team. 

Jaylen Waddle is a 2021 first-rounder with 2,400 scrimmage yards in two NFL seasons and inside/outside versatility. He and Hill form one of the league’s best WR duos. Braxton Berrios is a 2018 sixth-round slot man who will replace Trent Sherfield in three-wide sets, but his efficiency has steadily declined over the past four years (8.8 yards per target to 4.5). Even so, he has jitterbug maneuverability and should have more success in his first year with the Dolphins… away from Jets QB Zach Wilson.

Chosen (formerly “Robby Anderson”) is a 30-year-old field-stretching veteran who had 4,155 yards receiving in his first five seasons, but in the two years since he has managed just 801 and 73 receptions on 154 targets (47.4% catch rate, 5.2 yards per target). 

He could have a bounceback campaign as a rotational No. 4 WR, but he could also be done. Wilson is a 28-year-old slot receiver who lost his job to Sherfield and had a career-low 1.02 yards per route last year and then saw the team sign Berrios and Chosen this offseason. 

River Cracraft is a 2017 UDFA who contributes on special teams and theoretically can play all three WRs positions. He played under McDaniel on the 2020-21 49ers and followed him to the Dolphins last year. 

Erik Ezukanma is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played 10 snaps as a rookie. He’ll likely need one of the veterans to get cut or traded if he’s to make the team.

Durham Smythe headlines maybe the worst TE unit in the NFL. A 2018 fourth-rounder, he has just 88-809-3 receiving across his half-decade career with the Dolphins, and he had only 28-381-6 receiving in his four-year tenure at Notre Dame — one of the nation’s best producers of NFL TE talent. If the Fighting Irish couldn’t get this guy more than 15 receptions in his senior season, it’s not meant to be. An inline inactive with league-average blocking and average-at-best athleticism, Smythe is a poor replacement for the slot/perimeter Mike Gesicki.

Tyler Kroft is a forgotten third-rounder who has played on four teams over the past five years — but last year he was the No. 2 TE on the 49ers, so he’s familiar with the offensive system. He’s a cromulent non-threatening body. Saubert is a 29-year-old journeyman who last year with the Broncos had only 148 yards receiving — and that’s his career high. A subpar run blocker, he might push Kroft for the No. 2 role… but I doubt it matters as to who actually wins the job. “Adjacent to refuse is refuse.” 

Tanner Conner is a 2022 UDFA who played special teams as a rookie. He’s at risk of losing his roster spot to Higgins, a sixth-round rookie WR-to-TE convert who led Stanford last year with 59 receptions and 704 yards receiving and flashed intriguing athleticism (4.54-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds) at the combine. In the extreme, Higgins could develop into a shorter, smaller, slower, lesser Darren Waller.

Projections as of June 28.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Terron Armstead, LG Liam Eichenberg, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Isaiah Wynn
• Backups: T/G Austin Jackson, G/T Robert Jones, G/C Dan Feeney, OT Kendall Lamm
• Borderline: OTs Ryan Hayes and Cedric Ogbuehi
• Notable Turnover: RT Brandon Shell (Bills), OT Greg Little (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Armstead is a franchise LT who signed with the Dolphins last offseason after nine years with the Saints. With four Pro Bowl selections in the past half-decade, Armstead is a near-elite pass blocker who allowed just one sack in 2022 and has never had a PFF grade below 75. 

Eichenberg is a 2021 second-rounder who has started 26 games since entering the league, but he’s a plane crash in pass protection (89 pressures allowed) and a train wreck in run blocking (42.5 PFF grade last year). With a poor camp, he could lose his job. 

Williams is a second-contract transplant who joined the Dolphins last year after four seasons with the Cowboys. An above-average blocker in both phases who has steadily improved throughout his career, he shifted to C in 2022 and played well there — but he started at LG for four years before that. It’s not unthinkable that the Dolphins could shift him back to his natural position (and bench Eichenberg in the process) if they find someone else who can play the pivot.

Hunt is a 2022 second-rounder who played at RT as a rookie before kicking inside to RG, where he has since started 34 games. He’s an above-average blocker who has never had a PFF grade below 65. Wynn is a one-year reclamation project with massive upside.

A 2018 first-rounder who played well at LT for the 2019-21 Patriots, he moved to RT last year and had the worst campaign of his career — but maybe he could rebound to his previous form with another year at the position.

He’s not a guarantee to win a starting job in his first year with the team, but I think he can beat out Jackson, a 2020 first-rounder who has tried out LT, LG and RT over the past three years and been terrible at all of them.

Jones is a 2021 UDFA with inside/outside flexibility and nine starts for the Dolphins since his rookie season. He outplayed Eichenberg last year as his injury fill-in (58.5 PFF grade vs. 39.8) and could take his starting job with a strong camp. 

Feeney has only one season with a PFF grade above 65, but he’s a 29-year-old veteran with 64 starts and the ability to play all three interior positions. If he plays well in training camp, he could compete for the starting C job and allow the Dolphins to move Williams back to LG. 

Lamm is competing with Hayes and Ogbuehi for one roster spot, but I’m giving him the edge for now. He’s a 31-year-old journeyman with 29 starts at tackle and six seasons of PFF pass-blocking grades above 65. Hayes is a seventh-round rookie project with good athleticism (5.18-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 298 pounds) and two years of starting experience at LT at Michigan. 

Ogbuehi is a 31-year-old former first-rounder with 35 starts and the proven ability to line up at both tackle spots. He wasn’t a regular starter for the Seahawks or Jets the past two seasons, and he’s mediocre as a pass protector, but he shows well as a run blocker.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb
• EDGE Backups: Emmanuel Ogbah, Andrew Van Ginkel, Malik Reed
• DT Starters: Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler
• DT Backups: Raekwon Davis, Brandon Pili
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Melvin Ingram (free agent) and Trey Flowers (free agent), DT John Jenkins (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Phillips is a 2021 first-rounder with 10 sacks in each of the past two years (including playoffs). He’s already a near-elite pass rusher with the opportunity to improve. Chubb is a 27-year-old veteran whom the team acquired last year via a midseason trade and signed to a five-year $110M extension. 

A two-time Pro Bowler, he had 10 sacks last season and was successful under Fangio with the 2019-21 Broncos — but he has missed 25 games since 2019. If he happens to suffer an injury this year, the Dolphins could look to add a stopgap veteran — maybe Ingram, who had eight sacks with the team in 2022. (Even if Chubb stays healthy, the Dolphins might think about bringing Ingram back anyway.)

Ogbah missed half of the 2022 campaign with a season-ending triceps injury, but he had 21 sacks in 2020-21 in his first two years with the team and holds up in run defense, probably because he rotated between the interior and edge early in his career (with the 2016-18 Browns) and can still bump inside if needed. 

Van Ginkel is a 2019 fifth-rounder who has had PFF grades above 65 as a pass rusher and run defender in each of the past three years. Because of his size (6-foot-4 and 236 pounds), he offers the team scheme versatility with his ability to play off-ball LB. 

Reed is a 2019 UDFA who had 17 sacks as a rotational rusher on the 2019-21 Broncos under Fangio. He joins the Dolphins as a sharp offseason addition after a one-year sojourn with the Steelers.

Wilkins is a 2019 first-rounder who has always been strong as a run defender and who has incrementally improved as a pass rusher, hitting career highs last year with 71 tackles and seven sacks (including playoffs). 

Sieler is a contract-year veteran who has spent most of his career with the Dolphins after the Ravens (who drafted him as a 2018 seventh-rounder) cut him in 2019. He’s a quiet but key contributor who hit a career-high seven sacks last year and has a PFF run-defense grade above 65 in each of the past four seasons.

Davis is a bit of an oddity: He’s a true A-gap DT and has the size (6-foot-7 and 335 pounds) to play as a zero-technique space eater — but he’s a liability against the run with sub-40 PFF grades in each of the past two seasons. S

till, the 2020 second-rounder is about average as a pass rusher and can contribute 500 steady-ish snaps a year. Pili is a priority UDFA rookie whom the Dolphins gave $100,000 guaranteed at signing and who has a good chance to make the team as Jenkins’ replacement because of the shallow DT depth chart. With his size (6-foot-3 and 316 pounds), he can rotate in with Davis at nose. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jerome Baker, David Long
• Backups: Duke Riley, Channing Tindall
• Notable Turnover: Elandon Roberts (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Baker is a 2018 third-rounder who has started 70 games for the Dolphins since entering the league. He’s inconsistent year-to-year against the run (69.6 PFF grade in 2022, 42.4 in 2021), but he’s an above-average pass defender and a strong pass rusher (20 sacks since 2020) thanks to his off-ball/edge versatility. 

Long signed a two-year $11M deal this offseason to leave the Titans and replace Roberts as a starter. A classic downhill backer (89 PFF run-defense grade in 2022), Long is average in coverage but vigorous as a situational blitzer (28 pressures on 100 pass rushes over the past two years). He and Baker should complement each other well.

Riley is a veteran journeyman who has been the No. 3 LB since joining the team in 2021. He does nothing well, but he also doesn’t do anything too poorly. 

Tindall is a 2022 third-rounder who contributed on special teams as a rookie after playing the José Carreras role to Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker’s Luciano Pavarotti and Plácido Domingo on the championship-winning 2021 Georgia team. (Yes, that’s a Three Tenors reference. It’s also an indirect Seinfeld reference. Layers upon layers.) Ideally, Tindall will develop in his second season and push Riley for playing time.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou
• CB Backups: Cam Smith, Keion Crossen, Noah Igbinoghene
• S Starters: Jevon Holland, DeShon Elliott
• S Backups: Verone McKinley, Elijah Campbell
• IR/PUP: CB Nik Needham (Achilles), S Brandon Jones (knee)
• Borderline: CB Justin Bethel
• Notable Turnover: CB Byron Jones (retired), SS Eric Rowe (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Ramsey is a 28-year-old three-time first-team All-Pro and six-time Pro Bowler with the size (6-foot-1 and 209 pounds), athleticism (4.41-second 40-yard dash) and skill set to match up with any pass catcher. Acquired this offseason via trade, Ramsey replaces Jones as the corner opposite Howard and immediately upgrades the entire defense. 

He’s one of the few shadow corners who can capably tail receivers inside, and — given Fangio’s inventiveness — he might actually play as a power slot defender in three-wide sets if that allows the team to get its three best corners on the field together. 

In Ramsey, the Dolphins have a shutdown chess piece on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. It’s just a bonus that he’s a strong run supporter and an excellent blitzer (19 pressures on 65 career pass rushes).

Howard is a boom/bust 2016 second-rounder who has spent his entire career with the Dolphins. A four-time Pro Bowler, he has twice topped the league in interceptions (2018, 2020), and he leads the NFL with 28 interceptions (in 87 games) since his rookie season. Compare that to Ramsey (19 in 108 games), who entered the league the same year. 

But Howard’s ball-hawking tendencies can be exploited by sharp play-callers, and last year he allowed an embarrassing 66.7% catch rate and 10.5 yards per target. Hopefully, the additions of Fangio and Ramsey will help Howard return to his 2020 first-team All-Pro form (52.2%, 7.7).

Kohou is a small-school 2022 UDFA who stepped up as a rookie to man the slot with above-average play (6.2 yards per target), and he has a shot to stick there in 2023 given that Needham (the team’s 2020-21 slot corner) could start the year on the PUP because of the season-ending injury he suffered last year. 

But there’s also a chance that Kohou could be replaced in the slot by Ramsey to make room for Smith, an instinctive second-round rookie with great length (6-foot-1) and athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash, 11-foot-2 broad jump).

Crossen is a 29-year-old journeyman who has outside/inside versatility and played a necessity-driven career-high 435 snaps for the 2022 Dolphins in his first year with the team. He has never had a PFF coverage grade of even 65 — but he has been a core special teams contributor everywhere he has played. 

Igbinoghene is a 2020 first-rounder who has never gained the trust of the team, and sadly his 2022 PFF coverage grade of 47.4 is not the worst mark of his career. He might actually lose a camp battle to Bethel, a 33-year-old journeyman who has perimeter and slot experience and played a team-high 405 special teams snaps for the Dolphins last year.

Holland is a 2021 second-rounder who followed up a strong rookie season with a solid second one. He’s an above-average centerfield safety with no clear vulnerabilities. Elliott’s on his second straight one-year contract and third team in three seasons, but he has 35 starts since 2020 and can play both safety spots. 

He has never had a PFF run-defense or coverage grade below 60 and will likely open the season as the injury fill-in for Jones (the team’s 2021-22 SS), who suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 and could start 2023 on PUP. 

McKinley is a 2022 UDFA who gave the team 252 quality snaps last year, although he lacks the ability to play in the box because of his horrendous run support (33.9 PFF grade). Campbell is a core special teams player who made his bones at three different colleges (2014-17), the offseason Browns (2018), the AAF (2019), the XFL (2020) and then the Jets practice squad (2020) before finally catching on with the Dolphins two years ago. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Jason Sanders
• Punter: Jake Bailey
• Holder: Jake Bailey
• Long Snapper: Blake Ferguson
• Kick Returner: Braxton Berrios
• Punt Returner: Braxton Berrios
• Borderline: P Michael Turk
• Notable Turnover: P Thomas Morstead (Jets)

Sanders is a 2018 seventh-rounder who has been with the Dolphins for his entire career. He was a first-team All-Pro in 2020 but can be inconsistent: In two seasons he has had a conversion rate of at least 90%, but in his other three seasons his highest conversion rate is 81.3%.

Bailey was a first-team All-Pro two years ago for the Patriots, who released him in March due to declining production. In 2020, he was top-five with 48.7 yards per punt and 56.4% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Last year, he was respectively Nos. 34 and 25 (42.1 yards, 32.4%). He could lose a camp battle to Turk, an undrafted rookie who averaged 48.4 yards per punt (and successfully completed two passes on fake field goal attempts as the holder) in his two years at Oklahoma. 

Ferguson is a 2020 sixth-rounder who has been the team’s LS since his rookie season. Based on my extensive research, he doesn’t seem to be related to Fergie, Duchess of York, or Fergie, Dolphins co-owner.

 Berrios should take over for Wilson and Mostert on punt and kick returns. He was a first-team All-Pro returner in 2021 and has career marks of 11.4 yards per punt return and 24.9 yards per kick return. Last year, those numbers would’ve been good for Nos. 3 and 6 among qualified return men. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Dolphins’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 26
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
• Opponents: at LAC, at NE, vs. DEN, at BUF

The Dolphins have the seventh-hardest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They went to the playoffs last year, they have a tough division and they’re matched up against the AFC West and NFC East in interdivisional play — so that’s what you get.

And it’s unfortunate for them that they start the year with three-of-four away. Their home-field advantage is largest when the weather is hot and humid, and that’s the first month of the season. Instead of dominating dehydrated teams in the Florida sun at Hard Rock Stadium, they spend most of their time on the road in Weeks 1-4, starting with back-to-back away games against the Chargers (favorites) and Patriots (divisional rivals on Sunday Night Football). 

After that, they get their one home game in this stretch — a “gimme” against the Broncos — but this feels like a classic “trap game” given that the Broncos practice and play at elevation and are less likely than the average team to get gassed early in the year. Plus, they go back on the road in Week 4 to play the Bills (favorites, divisional rivals), so the Dolphins could get caught in Week 3 looking ahead.

The Dolphins will probably go 2-2 and be in a fine spot heading into Week 5, but there’s an underappreciated chance that they open the year 1-3 or even 0-4. The path to a winless start to the season is straightforward. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Dolphins.

• McDaniel flies a little too close to the sun with his scheme experiments, causing the offense to regress.
• Fangio works his magic — but his magic takes until the second half of the season to start working.
• Tagovailoa suffers a concussion in Week 5 and decides to sit out the rest of the season regardless of whatever results he gets from his neurological tests. As he says in his press conference, “I’m stepping away for a little bit. I’m not sure… I’m not sure what the future holds. I want to be here, but… I’m not sure.” 
• Cook doesn’t sign with the team, Mostert breaks down and Wilson and Achane form a low-volume backfield.
• Hill faces additional charges and the Dolphins cut him.
• Waddle faces regular double coverage without HIll.
• Chosen changes his name back to “Robby Anderson” in an attempt to regain his previous ability — but it’s all for naught, and he’s waived in Week 11.
• Smythe sucks.
• Eichenberg blows a blocking assignment, which results in Tagovailoa’s Week 5 concussion.
• Jackson beats out Wynn for the starting RT job — and then his missed assignment gets backup QB Mike White injured in Week 13.
• Chubb misses six games to injury.
• Kohou wins the slot CB job and is routinely targeted and exposed as teams seek to avoid Ramsey’s coverage.
• Howard allows 1,000 yards receiving as he aggressively gambles for interceptions to prove to himself that he — and not Ramsey — is the true alpha corner in Miami.
• Sanders has one of his bad seasons.
• Bailey wins the P job and is as bad as he was last year.
• Dolphins finish 6-11 to miss the playoffs, the defense endures an onslaught of offseason departures and Tagovailoa announces his retirement from football.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Dolphins.

• McDaniel launches the offense to No. 3 in scoring.
• Fangio transforms the defense into a top-five unit.
• Tagovailoa again leads the league in AY/A and wins MVP as he plays a full 17-game season.
• Cook doesn’t sign with the team, and Mostert, Wilson and Achane form an ever-fresh and highly efficient three-man committee.
• Hill sees the charges against him dropped on his way to yet another first-team All-Pro season.
• Waddle has a career-high 1,500 yards receiving.
• Chosen changes his name back to “Robby Anderson.”
• Smythe sucks — but it doesn’t matter.
• Eichenberg loses his starting LG job in training camp.
• Wynn beats out Jackson at RT and rebounds to his pre-2022 form.
• Chubb misses only one game and becomes the unofficial leader of a ferocious unit, which he dubs “Miami Sound Machine” because of how hard and loud the defense hits — and then the team starts playing “Conga” after every win.
• Kohou plays well as a rotational No. 4 CB while Ramsey dominates in the slot and Smith mans the perimeter on his way to a top-five finish in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
• Howard has an NFL-high nine interceptions as he makes teams pay for avoiding Ramsey’s coverage.
• Sanders has one of his good seasons.
• Bailey wins the P job and reverts back to his 2020 first-team All-Pro form.
• Dolphins go 13-4, secure the No. 2 seed, defeat the Chargers on Super Wild Card Weekend, sneak by the Bengals in the Divisional Round and then host and beat the Bills in the AFC Championship to make the Super Bowl, where apprentice bests master as the Dolphins overpower the 49ers with an 11-point victory. 

In-season angles

I view the Dolphins as a neutral betting team.

That said, I believe they offer the most advantage at home and as underdogs.

• Tagovailoa at Home: 12-5 ATS (35.1% ROI)
• Tagovailoa at Home: 13-4 ML (39.6% ROI)
• Tagovailoa as Underdog: 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI)
• Tagovailoa as Underdog: 8-8 ML (29.8% ROI)

They’ve also done well in division with Tagovailoa.

• Tagovailoa in Division: 7-3-1 ATS (31.4% ROI)
• Tagovailoa at Home: 7-4 ML (35.8% ROI)

I’m not begging to bet against the Dolphins this year, but it’s notable that McDaniel (in an admittedly small sample) has struggled against the Jets in a personal matchup with HC Robert Saleh, who worked with him as DC on the 2017-20 49ers.

• McDaniel vs. Jets: 0-2 ATS (92.2% ROI for faders)
• McDaniel vs. Jets: 1-1 ATS (24.0% ROI for faders)

But, again, I have no plans to bet against the Dolphins.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking to the awards market.

Tua Tagovailoa MVP +2200 (Caesars)

Let’s look at the past 10 MVP winners (regular season stats only).

• Patrick Mahomes (2022): 0.178 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.5 AY/A (No. 2)
• Aaron Rodgers (2021): 0.176 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.8 AY/A (No. 2)
• Aaron Rodgers (2020): 0.217 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 9.6 AY/A (No. 1)
• Lamar Jackson (2019): 0.191 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.9 AY/A (No. 4)
• Patrick Mahomes (2018): 0.205 EPA + CPOE (No. 2), 9.6 AY/A (No. 1)
• Tom Brady (2017): 0.163 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.4 AY/A (No. 3)
• Matt Ryan (2016): 0.206 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 10.1 AY/A (No. 1)
• Cam Newton (2015): 0.112 EPA + CPOE (No. 8), 8.3 AY/A (No. 5)
• Aaron Rodgers (2014): 0.191 EPA + CPOE (No. 2), 9.5 AY/A (No. 1)
• Peyton Manning (2013): 0.210 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 9.3 AY/A (No. 2)

Here’s what we should take away from this: Unless a guy (a QB) has paradigm-shifting rushing ability like Newton or Jackson, he almost certainly needs to be top-two (and definitely top-three) in both EPA + CPOE and AY/A to win MVP.

Because the league is so driven by the passing game, excellent QB efficiency tends to result in lots of wins — as long as a QB stays healthy enough to play enough contests.

So in trying to find future MVP winners, we shouldn’t be looking at QBs on teams likely to win lots of games. We should instead be looking at QBs with a shot to have incredibly efficient seasons — because if they do then they’ll win games and check that unofficial box for MVP eligibility.

And that brings us to Tagovailoa. Last year, he was top-two in these all-important metrics.

• EPA + CPOE: 0.148 (No. 2)
• AY/A: 9.2 (No. 1)

We’ve already seen an MVP-level performance from Tua — and yet he’s outside the top eight in consensus odds to win the award.

We’ve already seen two different QBs win MVP recently in a Shanahan (or Shanahan-style) offense: 2016 Ryan and 2020-21 Rodgers. And they did it in the season immediately following their first year in the offense, when QBs generally have an adjustment period. At least Ryan (2015) and Rodgers (2019) did.

But Tagovailoa was immediately productive in the offense, which is a great sign — and he’s entering his second year, so he could be even better.

If Tagovailoa stays healthy and repeats (or improves upon) his 2022 performance, I expect the Dolphins to compete for a top-two seed, which will make him live to win the award.

The odds are against him, but his real probability to win MVP is greater than the 4.35% implied probability of his +2200 odds at Caesars.

You can tail the Tua MVP future on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!