2023 Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview

The Minnesota Vikings last year jumped from 8-9 to 13-4 and won the NFC North in their first season under GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and HC Kevin O’Connell. At a glance, 2022 was an unqualified success.

And yet the Vikings actually had a worse point differential (-3) than they had the year prior (-1), and they lost at home to the talent-devoid Giants in the first round of the playoffs. 

Despite their massive improvement in record, they were effectively the same team. This year, the Vikings would once again like to win their division and make the playoffs, but more importantly they’d like to improve — or at least make some progress on the path to long-term improvement, even if that means taking a short-term step back.

In this 2023 Vikings preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Vikings preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 15. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 15. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 15.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 15.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 15.

General Manager and Head Coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
• Head Coach: Kevin O’Connell
• Team Power Rating: +0
• Team Power Ranking: No. 16
• Coach Ranking: No. 20

Adofo-Mensah joined the Vikings as GM in January 2022 after nine years with the 2013-19 49ers (analyst, manager and then director of football research/development) and 2020-21 Browns (VP of football operations). Before entering the NFL, he earned a bachelor’s degree in economics at Princeton as a basketball walk-on, received a master’s degree in economics at Stanford as a traditional student and then worked on Wall Street as a portfolio manager and commodities trader. He’s a quant, not a football guy.

But he has worked with three GMs (Trent Ballke, John Lynch and Andrew Berry) and now six HCs (Jim Harbaugh, Jim Tomsula, Chip Kelly, Kyle Shanahan, Kevin Stefanski and O’Connell) in his 10 years in the league. He has picked up enough knowledge of the game to know how to leverage his data-backed methodology to evaluate players.

In his brief time with the Vikings, Adofo-Mensah has shown great potential and a long-term mindset. Despite the short-term ramifications of parting ways with impact players in RB Dalvin Cook, WR Adam Thielen, LBs Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks, EDGEs Everson Griffen and Za’Darius Smith, DTs Sheldon Richardson and Dalvin Tomlinson, and CB Patrick Peterson, the Vikings have done so in order to clean up their salary situation.

They have been aggressive in moving around in the draft to gain an edge and intelligent with opportunistic additions of veterans via free agency and trade. 

And the hire of O’Connell — with whom he worked on the 2016 49ers — has yielded strong early returns. On the one hand, the Vikings scored fewer points (424) and allowed more points (427) than they had the year prior (425, 426).

Many Vikings fans last offseason had massively unrealistic expectations about what they should expect from O’Connell as a coach. Not everyone who works for Sean McVay becomes McVay.

On the other hand, O’Connell doesn’t need to be McVay to be a good coach. Last year the offense improved from Nos. 14 and 25 in scoring and success rate to No. 8. It jumped up from No. 18 in early-down pass rate to No. 9 and -2% in pass frequency over expected to +3%.

The Vikings skyrocketed from bottom-six in fourth-down aggressiveness (No. 29) to a little above average (No. 14, per RBs Don’t Matter). Although the team declined ever so slightly in points scored and allowed and actually had a negative differential (-3), O’Connell was able to maximize the team’s output and sneak out a series of close wins.

It’s better to win by a lot than a little and to score more points than you allow over a season — but winning is still better than losing, especially if you’re going to keep games close, and O’Connell won last year. In fact, the 2022 Vikings had a league-record 10 comeback wins, including the largest single-game comeback in NFL history in Week 15 against the Colts, trailing 33-0 at halftime and winning 39-36 in overtime.

O’Connell seems to have a knack for winning tight games. That doesn’t feel sustainable, but maybe he’ll keep it up in 2023, and maybe the team won’t be in as many close games moving forward.

At the same time, it’s a problem in the first place that the Vikings allowed the feckless Colts to score 33 points in one half of football, and their defensive woes — they dropped from No. 24 in scoring to No. 28 — ultimately reflect on O’Connell, even though he’s not a defensive coach. But, to his credit, he fired underperforming DC Ed Donatell after just one year. Moving on from a mistake quickly is a good sign. New DC Brian Flores might not be better than Donatell — but he might be.

It’s hard to project what kind of coach O’Connell ultimately will be. Little in his history is especially promising. A 2008 third-rounder, he was the first in the onslaught of developmental QBs the Patriots drafted as potential replacements for Tom Brady (O’Connell, Ryan Mallett in 2011, Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014, Jacoby Brissett in 2016, Jarrett Stidham in 2019) — but the Patriots cut him after only one year, and he never attempted another regular season pass after that despite bouncing around the league a few more years with four other teams. 

Once his playing career fizzled away, O’Connell transitioned to coaching, but he did little with the 2015 Browns (QBs coach), 2016 49ers (special projects assistant) and 2017-19 Redskins (QBs coach, passing game coordinator, OC) to distinguish himself. That might’ve been due to the HCs (Mike Pettine, Chip Kelly, Jay Gruden, Bill Callahan) and OCs (John DeFilippo, Curtis Modkins, Matt Cavanaugh) for whom he worked, but in his one pre-McVay season as a playcaller O’Connell coordinated an offense that was dead last in scoring (16.6 points per game).

It’s not until O’Connell served as McVay’s OC on the 2020-21 Rams that he got some positive buzz around the league, and it was likely deserved, as the Rams were top-10 in points and yards in 2021 and won the Super Bowl — but, still, O’Connell wasn’t the playcaller. He’s not the reason the Rams offense was great two years ago.

O’Connell has given enough cause for cautious optimism in his short tenure with the Vikings, but some realistic skepticism is also warranted, given that we’re still in the early chapters of his book.

Kevin O’Connell coaching record

• Years: 1
• Playoffs: 1
• Division Titles: 1
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 1-0
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +3.5
• Regular Season: 13-4 (.765)
• Playoff Record: 0-1 (.000)
• Against the Spread: 7-10-1 (-19.5% ROI)
• Moneyline: 13-5 (19.5% ROI)
• Over/Under: 12-6 (26.3% ROI, Over)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Wes Phillips
• Offensive Playcaller: Kevin O’Connell
• OL Coach: Chris Kuper
• QBs Coach: Chris O’Hara
• RBs Coach/Running Game Coordinator: Curtis Modkins
• WRs Coach: Keenan McCardell
• TEs Coach/Passing Game Coordinator: Brian Angelichio
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Phillips was a college QB who coached the position for a few years (2004-05 West Texas A&M, 2006 Baylor) before jumping to the NFL in 2007 with the Cowboys, where he worked for seven years (2007-10 quality control, 2011-12 assistant OL coach, 2013 TEs coach) before connecting with McVay and then O’Connell on the 2014-18 Redskins, where he served as the TEs coach.

Phillips left Washington for Los Angeles a year before O’Connell did, and he worked for three years on the Rams (TEs coach/pass game coordinator) before he followed O’Connell to be the Vikings OC. What O’Connell was to McVay in 2020-21 — the guy who installs the offense and manages the daily operations of the offense — that’s what Phillips is now to O’Connell.

With five years together on three different staffs, Phillips and O’Connell are a good fit — and all their position coaches are returning for a second season together.

Dec 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) celebrates the win after the game against the New York Giants at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Kuper is an eight-year NFL guard who played in a variety of schemes on the 2006-13 Broncos under HCs Mike Shanahan and Josh McDaniels and OCs Mike McCoy and Adam Gase. After playing, he was an assistant OL coach for five years (2017-18 Dolphins, 2019-21 Broncos) before joining the Vikings in his current role. As a coach, he worked with Modkins for three years on the Broncos.

O’Hara is a 32-year-old up-and-comer who was a student/graduate assistant in college before joining the Jaguars (2014-16) as an associate. He worked under O’Connell as a quality control coach (2017-19 Redskins) and assistant (2021 Rams) before joining his staff last year as a position coach. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get some OC hype in 1-2 seasons.

Modkins is a longtime RBs coach who worked under Chan Gailey for years (2002-07 Georgia Tech, 2008 Chiefs, 2010-12 Bills) before heading out on his own. Before joining the Vikings, he was an OC or RBs coach for seven different teams and was the 2016 OC for the 49ers, where he oversaw O’Connell and worked with Adofo-Mensah.

McCardell was a 17-year NFL WR who entered the league as a 12th-rounder and managed to make two Pro Bowls and get 11,373 yards receiving because of his work as a route-running technician. After playing, he worked alongside McVay as the WRs coach for the 2010-11 Redskins, and then later he was the WRs coach for the 2017-20 Jaguars and overlapped his final year there with O’Hara (assistant) before joining the Vikings in 2021. He’s the lone position coach holdover from former HC Mike Zimmer’s staff.  

Angelichio is a longtime college OC and OL/TEs coach who made the jump to the Buccaneers in 2012 with then-HC Greg Schiano. He has been an NFL TEs coach ever since and worked with O’Connell on the 2015 Browns and 2019 Redskins. It was natural for O’Connell to hire him for the Vikings job.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Brian Flores
• assistant HC: Mike Pettine
• DL Coach: Chris Rumph
• Outside LBs Coach/Pass Rush Specialist: Mike Smith
• Inside LBs Coach: Mike Siravo
• DBs Coach: Daronte Jones
• Notable Turnover: DC Ed Donatell (free agent), Inside LBs Coach Greg Manusky (Broncos)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Flores is perhaps the sturdiest branch in the Bill Belichick coaching tree. A linebacker at Boston College, he joined the Patriots as a scouting assistant (2004-05) after graduation and was promoted to a pro scout (2006-07) before transitioning to coaching. With the Patriots, he worked his way up from special teams assistant (2008-09) to special teams coach (2010), defensive assistant (2011), safeties coach (2012-15) and eventually LBs coach (2016-18) before he was named Dolphins HC.

As such, he tore down the roster in 2019 (5-11, No. 32 in defensive scoring) and then enjoyed a massive turnaround in 2020 (10-6, No. 6). Following a mediocre (but still winning) 2021 season (9-8, No. 16), he was (somewhat inexplicably) fired. After “rehabbing” for a year on the Steelers as the senior defensive assistant and LBs coach, he joins the Vikings this offseason as the external replacement for Donatell.

He’s a roll-the-dice selection as the defensive leader. Donatell ran a bland version of the Vic Fangio defense. He had a “better to die quietly than violently” approach. That won’t be the case with Flores, who will seek to manifest physicality and manufacture pressure. If last year was “kill us with a thousand paper cuts,” this year will likely be “we’re gonna try to kill you, even if the only weapon we have is this box of paper.”

With a high-variance style of play, the defense could be  excitingly opportunistic at best or terrifyingly exploitable at worst — sometimes even within the same game. There’s no guarantee that Flores’ defense will do better than Donatell’s did, but it’s unlikely to fail from the same flaws or to be notably worse.

Pettine reports to O’Connell, but he’s a defensive coach by trade and will be a resource for Flores. When he was the Browns HC (2014-15), he gave O’Connell his first NFL coaching job. A three-time NFL DC (2009-12 Jets, 2013 Bills, 2018-20 Packers), he could be a fallback option for the team in an interim role if Flores implodes and is fired midseason.

Rumph toiled in the college ranks for years — with stops at Clemson (2006-10), Alabama (2011-13), Texas (2014), Florida (2015-17) and Tennessee (2018-19), among others — before joining the 2020 Texans as outside LBs coach and then jumping to the 2021 Bears as DL coach. He worked with Pettine (senior defensive assistant) on the Bears and then followed him to the Vikings in his current role.

Smith played LB for the 2005-08 Ravens — Pettine was the team’s outside LBs coach — and then he worked under Pettine as an intern and then outside LBs coach on the 2010-12 Jets. After working as DC/outside LBs coach at Texas Tech (2013-15), he was an assistant DL coach (2016-17) and outside LBs coach (2018) with the Chiefs before reuniting with Pettine on the 2019-20 Packers as the outside LBs coach and then eventually following him to the Vikings in 2022.

Siravo joins the Vikings as the out-of-house replacement for Manusky, who worked with O’Connell as the Redskins DC in 2017-19. Now, Flores has his guy in the position. Siravo preceded Flores as a Boston College LB and then kicked off his coaching career as a graduate assistant there when Flores played.

After working under HC Matt Rhule at Temple (2013-16) and Baylor (2017-19), he followed him to the Panthers (2020-22), where he worked with TEs coach Brian Angelichio for two years and was the run game coordinator/LBs coach.

Jones coached CBs, DBs and safeties and coordinated defenses in HS, college and the CFL before jumping to the NFL with the Dolphins (2016-17 assistant DBs coach). After working with the 2018-19 Bengals as CBs coach, he joined Zimmer’s 2020 VIkings staff as the DBs coach, and then he leveraged that position into the LSU DC job in 2021… only to return to the Vikings in 2022 in his previous role. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Matt Daniels
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Dalmin Gibson
• Notable Turnover: assistant Special Teams Coach Ben Kotwica (Broncos) 

Daniels was a practice squad-level safety and special teams player in the NFL for four years (2012-15) before transitioning to coaching. After holding assistant gigs with the 2018-19 Rams (under McVay) and 2020-21 Cowboys (under ace special teams coordinator John Fassel), he got a coordinator job of his own with the 2022 Vikings.

Last year, Daniels turned a unit that was No. 2 in special teams DVOA the year prior into No. 30. They can’t all be winners. Gibson makes the jump to the NFL as the replacement to Kotwica.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Kirk Cousins
• Backups: Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Kirk Cousins is a pocket-passing veteran who entered the league in 2012 as a fourth-round backup and eventually ascended to a No. 1 job in 2015. In his eight years as a starter, he has made four Pro Bowls and completed 67.5% of his passes for 7.8 adjusted yards per attempt and 4,263.8 yards per season. Not bad at all. But he’s a nonentity as a runner (6.6 yards per game) and just 1-3 in the playoffs.

There’s nothing hugely wrong with Cousins, but he feels like a QB who won’t elevate a roster as much as a QB needs to in the modern NFL, which is probably why the Vikings have let him reach a contract year after fully guaranteeing every dollar of his salary since he joined the team in 2018.

Reunited with O’Connell (his QBs coach with the 2017 Redskins), Cousins had a typical Cousins-esque campaign in 2022, and that’s probably what he’ll have in 2023.

Nick Mullens must be Adofo-Mensah’s favorite discount QB. With the 49ers, he helped identify Mullens as someone to sign as an undrafted free agent in 2017. With the Browns, he picked Mullens up on waivers in 2021. And with the Vikings, he traded a seventh-round pick for Mullens last preseason — and then signed him to a two-year extension this offseason. With 17 starts, a 65.3% completion rate, and 7.0 AY/A, he’s an acceptable No. 2 QB… and Adofo-Mensah might even view him as a darkhorse candidate to replace Cousins as the 2024 starter.

Jaren Hall is a dual-threat fifth-round rookie with unimpressive size (6-foot and 207 pounds), advanced age (25 years old) and solid production (5,754 yards, 51 TDs passing; 148-657-6 rushing in two starting seasons).

Projections as of July 15.

Running Backs

• Starter: Alexander Mattison
• Backups: Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride, Kene Nwangwu
• Fullback: C.J. Ham
• Notable Turnover: RB Dalvin Cook (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

For the past four years, Alexander Mattison has been the arbitrage backup version (4.1 yards per carry, 6.3 yards per target) of former starter Cook (4.7, 6.3). In his six NFL games without Cook, Mattison has amassed 693 yards and five touchdowns on 19.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game.

Frankly, it shouldn’t have been a surprise that he did well in Cook’s stead, given that he profiled as a 21-year-old third-round three-down back with good size (5-foot-11 and 221 pounds) and strong production (2,958 yards, 30 touchdowns in final two seasons) when he entered the league. That’s the profile of someone likely to dominate at some point, and now — with a two-year contract almost fully guaranteed — Mattison will get his shot.

Ty Chandler is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played just 13 offensive snaps last year but has elite speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash), change-of-pace size (5-foot-11 and 204 pounds), respectable college production (1,308 yards, 14 touchdowns in final season), and strong recruitment pedigree (four stars).

I bet he’ll win the No. 2 job over DeWayne McBride, a seventh-round rookie with great rushing production (3,084 yards, 32 touchdowns in final two seasons) but no pass-catching functionality (five receptions in college).

Kene Nwangwu has just 105 yards from scrimmage since his 2021 rookie season, but he’s a top-tier return man. Ham — and my sincerest apologies for this — is an egg-and-hammer lead blocker who has been with the Vikings since his 2016 UDFA season. He has just 36 career carries — but he scored two goal-line touchdowns in 2022, signed a two-year contract extension this offseason, and has one Pro Bowl and 70-610-2 receiving (6.6 yards per target).

Projections as of July 15.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn
• WR Backups: Brandon Powell, Jalen Nailor
• TE Starter: T.J. Hockenson
• TE Backups: Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt
• Borderline: WR Jalen Reagor, TE Nick Muse
• Notable Turnover: WR Adam Thielen (Panthers), TEs Irv Smith (Bengals) and Ben Ellefson (Retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Justin Jefferson is a 2020 first-rounder who won 2022 Offensive Player of the Year and has more receptions (324) and yards receiving (4,825) than any other player in NFL history through the first three years of his career. Jefferson is the closest this generation might get to Jerry Rice.

Jordan Addison is a 21-year-old All-American first-round rookie who balled out with a Biletnikoff Award-winning 100-1,593-17 receiving season as a true sophomore but has underwhelming athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash) for his unimpressive size (5-foot-11 and 173 pounds). He has inside/outside versatility and profiles as a high-floor complementary receiver but he probably lacks the ceiling of a No. 1 alpha.

K.J. Osborn is a 2020 fifth-rounder with a respectable 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns receiving on 172 targets since he became the team’s primary slot receiver two years ago.

Brandon Powell is a journeyman addition now on his sixth team in six years. He’s limited to the slot because of his size (5-foot-8 and 181 pounds), and he doesn’t offer much as a receiver (47-354-2, 5.3 yards per target for career), but he has some functionality as an end-around runner (20-91-0 rushing for career) and can double as a punt returner. 

Jalen Nailor is a 2022 sixth-rounder who flashed in limited usage last year (9-179-1 receiving on 13 targets) and stood out on special teams. Reagor — the guy the Eagles took at No. 21 in the 2020 draft, which allowed the Vikings laughingly to get Jefferson at No. 22 — did little in Minnesota last year (8-104-1 receiving) after he was shipped out of Philadelphia for two Day 2 picks. Given that Powell has the edge on him as a returner, Nailor did more in 2022 as a receiver and they’re both cheaper, Reagor could lose his roster spot.

T.J. Hockenson joined the Vikings last year via an in-season trade. The No. 8 pick in the 2019 draft, he’s playing on his fifth-year option after putting up 86-914-6 receiving in 2022 and making his second Pro Bowl. Sound as a blocker and able to line up in the slot and inline, Hockenson is a complete player.

Josh Oliver is a second-contract offseason addition who did almost nothing in his first four years but is now getting paid more than Mattison.  

Oliver played a career-high 561 snaps last year and is an above-average run and pass blocker. He’s likely to supplant Mundt, a 2017 UDFA who followed O’Connell from the Rams to Vikings last season. He had career-best marks with 466 snaps and 19-140-1 receiving in 2022, but he could lose his roster spot to Nick Muse, a 2022 seventh-rounder who played special teams as a rookie.

Projections as of July 15.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Christian Darrisaw, LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury, RG Ed Ingram, RT Brian O'Neill
• Backups: OT Blake Brandel, G/C Austin Schlottmann, G/T Oli Udoh, OT Vederian Lowe
• Borderline: G/C Chris Reed, C/OL Alan Ali
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Darrisaw is a 2021 first-rounder who allowed just 23 pressures last year and had a 90.6 PFF run-blocking grade. That he didn’t get even Pro Bowl recognition is ridiculous. He’s on the edge of elite. Cleveland is a 2020 second-rounder who paves the road as a run blocker (79.7 PFF grade in 2022) but turns the stile as a pass blocker (55 pressures). 

Bradbury converted from TE to OL in college and was a Rimington Trophy-winning All-American as a senior, but in his four years with the Vikings the former first-rounder has been a pass-protection liability. Ingram is a 2022 second-rounder who allowed 63 pressures and 11 sacks as a rookie.

O’Neill is a second-contract veteran who made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and has been a strong bookend presence for the Vikings since his 2018 rookie season.

Brandel is a 2020 sixth-rounder who has given the Vikings 340 snaps of subpar play as a backup LT and inline TE over the past two years. Schlottmann is a 2018 UDFA who joined the Vikings last year and has experience at all three interior spots, but he’s a net negative in run blocking and pass protecting.

Udoh is a 2019 sixth-rounder who should be the top OL backup. He can play every position except for C and has allowed just one sack on 752 pass rushes. Lowe is a 2022 sixth-rounder who had a 35.1 PFF grade last year on 33 LT snaps.

Reed (a journeyman with 30 starts, one year on the team, G/C flexibility and sufficient ability) and Ali (a rookie UDFA with 54 starts and experience at every OL spot) could push for roster spots given the unimpressive quality of the team’s depth.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport
• EDGE Backups: D.J. Wonnum, Patrick Jones, Andre Carter
• DT Starters: Harrison Phillips, Dean Lowry
• DT Backups: Khyiris Tonga, James Lynch, Esezi Otomewo, Jaquelin Roy
• Borderline: EDGE Luiji Vilain, DTs Jonathan Bullard and Ross Blacklock 
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Za’Darius Smith (Browns), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Hunter is a 28-year-old homegrown contract-year veteran who could be traded away for salary relief before the season starts. He has three Pro Bowls over the past half decade and is strong rushing the passer and defending the run. Wherever he plays in 2023, he’ll be an asset.

Davenport is a second-contract offseason addition who missed 19 games in five years for the Saints but was a stout two-phase player when healthy. He should be a competent-at-worst replacement for Smith.

Wonnum is a 2020 contract-year fourth-rounder with median — more like “meh”-dian (#NailedIt) — PFF run-defense and pass-rush grades of 49.2 and 54.8. Jones is a 2021 third-rounder with league-average rotational play.

Carter is a rookie UDFA who had 19 sacks in his two final seasons at Army. He fell in the draft because of some poor numbers (4.86-second 40-yard dash, 30-inch vertical and 9-foot-1 broad jumps) — but his predictive three-cone was a quick 6.86 seconds, and he wasn’t a typical prospect in that he lacked the ability to prepare extensively for his athletic testing because of his service academy responsibilities.

The Vikings gave him a three-year contract with $340,000 guaranteed, which is the most any UDFA rookie has gotten over the past two years — so he’s probably making the roster and could be a steal. Vilain is a 2022 UDFA who could potentially push Wonnum for his spot if the Vikings need or want to go cheap at the position.

Phillips joined the Vikings last year after four seasons with the Bills. He played a career-high 738 snaps in 2022 and has never had a PFF run-blocking grade below 60. Lowry is an offseason defection from the rival Packers, where he spent the first seven years of his career and played for Pettine for three seasons. He’s a subpar but cheap ($8.5M over two years) replacement for the departed Tomlinson ($57M over four years).

Tonga is a 2021 seventh-rounder who played for Pettine and Rumph on the 2021 Bears and then reunited with them last year. He has the size (6-foot-4 and 321 pounds) to line up at nose, and he gave the Vikings 300 high-quality snaps in 2022 after they added him in Week 8.

Lynch is a 2020 fourth-rounder yet to provide league-average rotational play. Otomewo is a 2022 fifth-rounder who wasn’t terrible (62.6 PFF grade) on 90 snaps last year. Roy is a four-star fifth-round rookie who was comped to Tomlinson as a prospect.

I guess the Vikings have a type. He could push Bullard and Blacklock — two veterans who underperformed last year in their first season with the team — off the roster.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jordan Hicks, Brian Asamoah
• Backups: Troy Reeder, Ivan Pace
• Borderline: Troy Dye, William Kwenkeu
• Notable Turnover: Eric Kendricks (Chargers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Hicks joined the Vikings last year after seven years with the Eagles (2015-18) and Cardinals (2019-21). Although he’s a good run defender and situational pass rusher, he has been a subpar pass defender (high PFF coverage grade of 62.6) since leaving the Eagles.

Asamoah is a 2022 third-rounder who played well (78.8 PFF grade) last year in limited action (121). He’ll be expected to step up as the in-house replacement for Kendricks.

Reeder is a below-average 2019 UDFA with whom O’Connell is familiar thanks to their time together on the 2020-21 Rams. He’s no lock to make the roster after playing just 63 snaps last year with the Chargers, but his guaranteed money ($100,000) gives him a real shot, which is also the case for Pace ($236,000 guaranteed), a unanimous All-American UDFA rookie who has an animalistic nose for the ball (262 tackles, 34.5 tackles for loss in final two seasons).

Dye is a 2020 fourth-rounder with questionable run defense and poor coverage skills. Kwenkeu is a 2022 UDFA who played 13 defensive snaps last year. Both Dye and Kwenkeu are special teams aces, but they could lose their roster spots with the additions of Reeder and Pace.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Byron Murphy, Andrew Booth, Akayleb Evans
• CB Backups: Mekhi Blackmon, Joejuan Williams
• S Starters: Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum
• S Backups: Lewis Cine, Josh Metellus, Jay Ward
• Notable Turnover: CBs Patrick Peterson (Steelers), Chandon Sullivan (Steelers), Cameron Dantzler (Bills) and Duke Shelley (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Murphy joins the Vikings after four years and 48 starts with the Cardinals. Despite never being anything more than a mediocre cover man, Murphy will be tasked with leading the charge to replace the 3,000-plus CB snaps vacated by the team’s offseason departures. With his inside/outside versatility, he will likely man the slot in nickel packages and the perimeter in base formation.

Booth is a four-star 2022 second-rounder who played sparingly (105 snaps) and poorly (10.1 yards per target) as a rookie. Evans is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played more (165 snaps) but worse (11.0 yards per targets) than Booth last year.

Blackmon is a third-round rookie who is old (24 years), small-ish (5-foot-11 and 178 pounds), and slow-ish for his size (4.47-second 40-yard dash). He’s physical, aggressive and theoretically capable of playing on the perimeter and in the slot — but he might lack the tools to succeed in the NFL.

Williams missed all of last year to injury, and he made only one start with the Patriots in the three years prior, but the 2019 second-rounder is a good special teams player with the ability to flex between corner and box safety.

Smith is a 34-year-old Vikings lifer who has made 158 starts and six Pro Bowls for the team. Strong in coverage and against the run, Smith can play box, deep and nickel. He continues to carry the torch for the 2017 Vikings defense that finished No. 1 in yards and points. Bynum is a 2021 fourth-round centerfield safety who’s exploitable in coverage (10.4 yards per target last year).

Cine is a 2022 first-rounder who missed most of last season due to a broken leg he suffered on special teams. That he — as the No. 32 pick — was playing special teams at all is somewhat telling. Cine has great athleticism (4.37-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2), but he might lack the heft (199 pounds) to play in the box and the instincts to play deep.

Metellus is a 2020 sixth-rounder who was a special teams-only contributor for his first two years, but last season he added lights-out defense (85.1 PFF grade) on 261 snaps. Ward is a fourth-round rookie who saw action at safety, in the slot and on the perimeter as a two-year SEC starter.

Because of his lack of speed (4.55-second 40-yard dash) and paucity of ponderosity (188 pounds), he might ultimately be best as a nickel defender.

Specialists

• Kicker: Greg Joseph
• Punter: Ryan Wright
• Holder: Ryan Wright
• Long Snapper: Andrew DePaola
• Kick Returner: Kene Nwangwu
• Punt Returner: Brandon Powell
• Borderline: K Jack Podlesny, PR Jalen Reagor

Joseph is a 2018 UDFA who lost camp battles his first three seasons, but he found a foothold with the 2021 Vikings and played well, converting 86.8% of his field goal attempts and going seven of nine on kicks of 50-plus yards. Last year, though, he regressed to a 78.8% conversion rate and went just four of 10 on 50-yarders. He signed a one-year extension this offseason and got $1.7 million guaranteed — but it’s not 100% guaranteed that he’ll beat out Podlesny (aka “Hot Pod”), a rookie UDFA who won 2022 SEC Special Teams Player of the Year at Georgia and connected on over 80% of his field goal attempts in each of his three seasons as the starting kicker for the back-to-back national champions.

Wright is a 2022 UDFA who was No. 9 last year with 43.8% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. DePaola is a 36-year-old veteran who joined the Vikings late in the 2020 season and has been with the team since. After earning the only first-team All-Pro recognition of his career in 2022, the Vikings gave him a three-year extension this offseason. In all three of his years with the Vikings, he has had a PFF special teams grade of at least 80.

Nwangwu was named second-team All-Pro last year, and across his two seasons he has three kick return touchdowns and 28.3 yards per kick return. Of all players with 40-plus kick returns since 2021, he’s No. 1 in yardage average. Nwangwu might be the league’s best active kick returner. Powell is cheaper ($1.08M) than Reagor ($2.42M), and he has had more success as a punt returner (9.6 yards per punt return vs. 8.0). He could push Reagor off the roster.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Vikings’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 26
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 2-7
• Opponents: at Eagles, vs. Chargers, at Panthers, vs. Chiefs, at Bears, vs. 49ers

The Vikings have the seventh-hardest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. That’s what you get when you go 13-4 the year prior and then match up with the AFC West. After their Week 1 ease-into-it home game against the Buccaneers, there are a few distinct pockets of their schedule I could choose to highlight as “wow, that’s unfortunate,” but Weeks 2-7 stand out.

After the season opener, the Vikings go to Philadelphia to face the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. For Week 3, they return home to host the Chargers and then head out on the road again to face the Panthers.

For Week 5, they’re home against the Chiefs, followed by a road matchup against the Bears and then a home game against the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Nevermind the fact that they play three-of-four away right after that. This stretch is suboptimal enough.

The Vikings are underdogs in each of their three home games in Weeks 2-7. In their first road game, they face the NFC champions. In their second road game, they face the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. And in their third road game, they face a divisional opponent with a potentially ascending QB.

With the bye more than a month away and no relief in sight, the Vikings could legitimately be on a six-game losing streak heading into their Week 8 matchup with the division rival Packers at Lambeau Field. If the Vikings falter in Weeks 2-7, they could see their season die before it even has the chance to walk.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Vikings.

• GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah keeps too many middling veterans on the 53-man roster, and they underperform during the season. 
• HC Kevin O’Connell asks too much of his passer.
• DC Brian Flores immolates himself on the altar of overaggressiveness and is replaced by assistant HC Mike Pettine midseason.
• Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels continues to oversee a bottom-three unit.
• QB Kirk Cousins presses too much in a contract year and tries too much to make something out of nothing, which results in his worst season with the Vikings.
• RB Alexander Mattison can’t carry a lead back load on a weekly basis and starts to break down as the season wears on.
• WR Justin Jefferson grows frustrated with Cousins’ ill-timed interceptions and the lack of supplemental support he gets from WRs Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn, who fail to draw defensive attention and make plays when given opportunities.
• TE T.J. Hockenson regresses from his career-high 914 yards and tells the team that he intends to test free agency in the offseason.
• LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury and RG Ed Ingram collectively allow an unbearable amount of interior pressure on Cousins.
• EDGE Danielle Hunter struggles early in the year and is able to fetch only a Day 3 pick via the in-season trade market, and EDGE Marcus Davenport misses six games to injury.
• DT Dean Lowry is a massive liability in run defense, but Pettine continues to give him starter-level snaps because he “knows the system” from their previous time together.
• LB Jordan Hicks gets exploited in coverage and LB Brian Asamoah comes down from the cloud-like high of his 2022 performance.
• CBs Byron Murphy, Andrew Booth and Akayleb Evans have zero cohesiveness as the new starting trio.
• SS Harrison Smith announces that he plans to retire after the season and he voices his doubt about the direction of the franchise in a frank 12-minute locker-side interview with the media after the team’s Week 17 home loss to the Packers.
• Vikings go 5-12, finish last in the NFC North and head into the offseason unsure about their HC and QB situation.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Vikings.

• GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah aggressively cuts expendable veterans, and the young guys outperform expectations as their replacements.
• HC Kevin O’Connell makes life as easy as possible on his passer.
• DC Brian Flores luxuriates in the high-variance success of a unit that leads the league in takeaways. 
• Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels gets his unit up to average.
• QB Kirk Cousins operates within the elevated flow of the offense and has his best season with the Vikings, signing a two-year extension with the team in November.
• RB Alexander Mattison makes the Pro Bowl on the strength of a 1,500-yard, 15-touchdown season. 
• WR Justin Jefferson has a second consecutive 1,800-yard receiving campaign while WRs Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn make the most of their targets.
• TE T.J. Hockenson hits the 1,000-yard mark and signs a long-term extension in December.
• LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury and RG Ed Ingram play just well enough and are accounted for just enough in the playcalling for the impact of their pass-protecting deficiencies to be minimized.
• EDGEs Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport combine for 30 sacks.
• DT Dean Lowry loses his starting spot to DT Khyiris Tonga, who strengthens the team’s run defense.
• LBs Jordan Hicks and Brian Asamoah form a strong supplementary duo, as Hicks cleans up against the run and Asamoah hangs tough in coverage.
• CBs Byron Murphy, Andrew Booth and Akayleb Evans give up a lot of long plays in one-on-one coverage — but they also combine for 18 interceptions.
• SS Harrison Smith says that he’s not even close to thinking about retirement after the team locks up the NFC North following its Week 17 home win over the Packers.
• Vikings go 13-4 again, earn the No. 2 seed, gift O’Connell a #RevengeGame victory over the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend, repeat the “Minneapolis Miracle” with a game-winning 61-yard touchdown to Jefferson against the Saints in the Divisional Round and then beat the Lions for the third time in six weeks to make the Super Bowl, where they lose by two touchdowns to the Chiefs. 

In-season angles

I view the Vikings as a neutral betting team.

If I were to bet against them, I’d most likely do it when they were underdogs. That might seem counterintuitive, as underdogs historically have offered more value than favorites — but with O’Connell and Cousins the Vikings feel like a team that plays comparable and lesser opponents closely and then gets totally outclassed by superior teams.

• O’Connell as Underdog: 1-4 ATS (53.9% ROI for faders)
• O’Connell as Underdog: 1-4 ML (34.8% ROI for faders)
• Cousins as Underdog With Vikings: 14-17 ATS (6.0% ROI for faders)
• Cousins as Underdog With Vikings: 9-22 ML (10.3% ROI for faders)

If I were to be “on” the Vikings at any point this year, I’d probably manifest my enthusiasm by betting the over, given that O’Connell’s team was the most profitable for over bettors last year (12-6, 26.3% ROI). The Vikings had a top-eight offense and bottom-eight defense in scoring in 2022, and I’m projecting that to be the case in 2023.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I’m moderately interested in under 8.5 wins at +120 (Caesars), given that I have the Vikings projected for 8.3 wins. 

If I can flip coins with a slight edge on the probabilities and also the payouts, then I’ll probably do it. So I might bet this if it’s still available as we get closer to the season.

Until then, I’m looking at the season-long player prop market.

Alexander Mattison Over 6.5 TDs Rushing (-108, FanDuel)

Not to be too simplistic with this, but Mattison is essentially the new Dalvin Cook, and Cook averaged 10.75 touchdowns rushing on 14.5 games per year over the past four seasons.

I generally lean to the under in season-long markets, but I have Mattison projected for 7.4 touchdowns rushing and believe that I’m being conservative. Given the offense he’s in and the role he’s likely to have, 6.5 touchdowns on the ground is a low bar to goal-line dive over.

You can tail the over on FanDuel, where you can also get a No Sweat First Bet of up to $1,000 when you create a new account. Simply sign up below and start betting today!