2023 New England Patriots Betting Preview

Last year, the New England Patriots followed up a promising 10-7 playoff campaign in QB Mac Jones’ rookie season with a bizarre 8-9 performance that was plagued by incomprehensible decisions by HC Bill Belichick (entrusting the offense to defensive coach Matt Patricia, alienating his first-round passer with a QB controversy involving a Day 3 rookie) and game-losing mistakes by his players in the final month (WR Jakobi Meyers’ intercepted lateral vs. the Raiders in Week 15, RB Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumble inside the 10-yard line vs. the Bengals in Week 16).

On the one hand, the Patriots were just a couple random plays away from duplicating their 10-7 record.

On the other hand, the 2021-22 seasons could not have felt more different.

In 2021, the Patriots were No. 3 in the league with a +159 point differential thanks to their efficient ball-control offense and opportunistic defense.

Last year, though, the Patriots had a point differential of just +17, their offense was mediocre and their defense was no longer elite. For  Belichick and the team, 2022 was an unquestioned disappointment.

This year, with Belichick a mere 20 wins away from tying Don Shula’s all-time record of 328, he finds himself in the rare position of needing to prove his present value to the franchise, given that he has two losing efforts in three years and a 25-25 record since QB Tom Brady left the Patriots and won a Super Bowl in his first season with another team.

In 2023, the Patriots need to have a winning record and ideally make the playoffs. And maybe even more importantly, Belichick needs to show that he’s capable of finding and developing Brady’s long-term successor — preferably Jones. But if the Patriots have another losing season and Belichick fails to convince owner Robert Kraft that the QB situation is under control, then he might find himself breaking Shula’s record with another team.

In this 2023 Patriots preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Patriots preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 1. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 1. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 1.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 1.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 1.

General Manager and Head Coach

• Head Coach/General Manager: Bill Belichick
• Team Power Rating: -0.25
• Team Power Ranking: No. 19
• Coach Ranking: No. 2

I shall attempt to force myself to be brief when talking about Belichick, as there’s a lot that one could say. I’ll start here: Belichick is the greatest NFL HC of all time… probably.

He’s clearly a football genius whose mind is unencumbered by orthodoxy. When Belichick allows himself to think outside the box — as he did as 1985-90 DC for the Giants, whose defense carried them to two Super Bowls — the results can be transformational.

They can also be disastrous. As a first-time HC for the 1991 Browns, Belichick — a defensive coach — decided to be the offensive playcaller and de facto OC… even though he had never called offensive plays before or coordinated an offense. And then he did it again the next year — and the year after that, except in 1993 he also didn’t have a QBs coach.

It’s probably not a coincidence (and it’s also a testament to Belichick’s brilliance) that the offense was statistically mediocre in his first three years with the Browns, but it wasn’t until 1994 that Belichick finally decided to offload his offensive work and have an OC and QBs coach. Naturally, that year the offense jumped up to No. 11, and with Belichick now freed up to focus more on the defense, that unit skyrocketed from No. 17 to No. 1.

It was reckless, arrogant and frankly stupid for Belichick — as the guy who’s supposed to think holistically and rationally about the team’s resources — to make the mistake of putting a defensive coach in charge of the offense, even if he was the guy. And it was even worse for him to persist in that mistake for multiple years. And worst of all, he proved in 2022 — when he put Patricia (a defensive coach) in charge of the offense and Joe Judge (a special teams coach) in charge of the QBs — that he hadn’t truly learned his lesson with the Browns all those years before.

That’s the kind of mistake that only a genius or a fool would make. And Belichick’s not a fool. As the Patriots HC, Belichick has been to nine Super Bowls and won six of them. Over the past 20 years, only thrice has his defense not finished top-10 in scoring. 

Again, I’ll state the obvious: Belichick is the greatest NFL HC of all time… probably. But maybe not. I’ll just assert that he’s clearly not the league’s best HC right now — that’s Chiefs HC Andy Reid — and Belichick maybe hasn’t even been the best HC of the past 25 years. That also might be Reid, considering all that he accomplished before finding QB Patrick Mahomes and all that Belichick has failed to accomplish without Brady.

Super Bowls are their own thing, and Reid is unlikely ever to match Belichick in the all-important championship category, but look at it this way: Reid is No. 5 in all-time wins (247), just 51 wins behind Belichick. One might skeptically look at that and say, “Reid is about five years behind Belichick.” That’s right — but Reid is also almost six years younger than Belichick. It’s not unthinkable that one day Reid could surpass Belichick on the all-time wins list. It probably won’t happen — but it’s more than possible.

Here’s what I’m driving at: The praise Belichick gets is deserved, but he’s not the best HC in the league now, he maybe hasn’t been the best HC within recent history if we take circumstances into account, and within 10-20 years he might not be the guy who holds the record for most wins.

Let’s cool it with the hagiographic talk of “Belichick is the best HC ever and there’s no debate at all about it.” There’s an argument to be made on the opposite side. I’m not saying that I believe the argument. I’m saying that no one should just assume that Belichick’s superiority is a given.

That said… Belichick is one of the best HCs in league history, and he’s still one the best HCs now.

But he’s a selectively terrible GM. Let’s set aside all the ways in which Belichick is a good GM. His overall strengths as a talent evaluator are apparent. He’s especially good at parting ways with overpriced veterans and finding cheap veterans who can contribute. Yet he lacks some of the basic skills a modern-day GM needs, namely…

1. The ability to read the draft market
2. The ability to manage and compromise with star players
3. The ability to counsel, check, and assess the HC 

On a yearly basis, Belichick’s Patriots tend to overdraft prospects relative to where they’re likely to go (based on a number of predictive factors). This is a clear case of “I know better,” and Belichick does know better — he’s fantastic at finding unheralded players who will outperform expectations — but then he drafts them at a premium.

We’re talking about a guy who just selected a kicker AND a punter in the 2023 draft. In the 21st century, that just happened.

In 2022, Belichick famously took small-school OG Cole Strange in the first round when he almost certainly would’ve been available on Day 2. The pick was so egregious that others in the NFL openly laughed at it.

Nevermind that Strange is a good player — maybe a great player — who started 17 games as a rookie. This is about process, not results.

There’s a difference between knowing your cards and the odds they carry and reading the poker table and knowing how you should play your hand. Belichick drafts like a poker player who doesn’t know the other people in the game, and that’s unacceptable considering that he has been in the game longer than anyone.

On top of that, Belichick almost certainly bungled the Brady situation. If you have a franchise QB — a Super Bowl-winning Hall of Famer who is still healthy and has never played for another team — then you do everything you can to keep him. You appease him. You coddle him. You pamper him. You empower him.

You don’t let him walk out of the building, especially if he’s literally the greatest QB of all time.

And if — IF! — you decide to let him leave, then you trade him for everything you can get and use your windfall of draft capital to rebuild for the future, as the Lions did when they traded QB Matthew Stafford. As the Seahawks did when they traded QB Russell Wilson. And as the Packers did when they traded QB Aaron Rodgers.

The Patriots didn’t do that. They let Brady leave… and they got nothing for him.

They had no GM — no other executive in the building — to play “good cop, bad cop” alongside Belichick. They had no one to talk Brady down. They had just “bad cop and more bad cop.”

A typical GM almost certainly would’ve handled the Brady situation better than Belichick, who has more of a “we want the players who want to be here” style. That perspective is fine for a coach — but a GM needs to put together the best team possible, and sometimes that means convincing players who don’t want you that they do want you and in fact need you.

But Belichick wasn’t willing or able to do that with Brady, and so he had to suffer the ignominy of watching his QB leave and win a Super Bowl elsewhere while he has mired in mediocrity.

If almost any other GM in the league had done that, that person would be working for another team now, if lucky.

The core problem in all of this is that Belichick doesn’t have anyone else in the organization — or at least anyone with football acumen (so that disqualifies owner Robert Kraft) — to talk him out of his bad ideas. There’s no one on the Patriots to counsel him. There’s no one above him to pull rank when it needs to be done.

The Patriots have no one to ask Belichick the necessary rhetorical questions, like…

• “Hey, do we really need so many guys who play only special teams?”
• “Since we’re terrible at scouting the position, maybe we shouldn’t use a top-100 pick on a WR?”
• “Bill, is it a good idea for us to pay two free agent TEs so much money?”
• “You know, can you walk me through how it will work to have Matt and Joe running the offense? — and, please, explain it to me like I’m 5 years old.”
• “Just wondering, are we sure that your sons — who are totally normal people, by the way — are the most qualified options we can find to be our LBs and safeties coaches?”

If Belichick had allowed the organization to give him an intelligent interlocutor, maybe he could’ve avoided some of the mistakes he has made. But he doesn’t want to have anyone around to ask him such obvious questions. Because he’s a genius.

Here’s where I ultimately land on Belichick: As a coach, he’s one of the best game planners and scheme designers the game has ever seen. He’d be even better if he had a better GM.

Bill Belichick coaching record

• Years: 23
• Playoffs: 18
• Division Titles: 17
• Super Bowls: 9
• Championships: 6
• Win Total Record: 15-6-2
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +1.17
• Regular Season: 262-108 (.708)
• Playoff Record: 30-12 (.714)
• Against the Spread: 204-147-10 ATS (14.1% ROI)
• Moneyline: 258-97 (8.9% ROI)
• Over/Under: 185-170-6 (1.4% ROI, Over)

Patriots only. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs but goes back only to 2003.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator/QBs Coach: Bill O’Brien
• Offensive Playcaller: Bill O’Brien
• OL Coach: Adrian Klemm
• RBs Coach: Vinnie Sunseri
• WRs Coach: Troy Brown
• WRs Coach: Ross Douglas
• TEs Coach: Will Lawing
• Notable Turnover: Sr. Football Advisor, OL coach and de facto OC Matt Patricia (Eagles), QBs coach Joe Judge (Patriots special teams, sort of), TEs Coach Nick Caley (Rams)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

O’Brien returns to New England to wash away the Saruman-esque filth that was the one-year offensive stint of Patricia and Judge as OC and QBs coach. Now O’Brien will assume both roles. While it has been over a decade since O’Brien worked with the Patriots, he’s a “Belichick guy” — and, more importantly, an offensive guy, which shouldn’t be assumed with the Patriots anymore.

After 14 years as a college coach, O’Brien joined the Patriots in 2007 as an offensive assistant and then worked his way up to WRs coach (2008), QBs coach (2009-10) and ultimately OC/QBs coach (2011) before helping to stabilize the post-Joe Paterno Penn State program as the 2012-13 HC. In Happy Valley, O’Brien made QBs Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenberg look like viable NFL players, which — in retrospect — was an achievement. 

After two years at Penn State, O’Brien returned to the NFL as the HC for the Texans, where he had mixed results. As a coach, he had a 52-48 record with five winning seasons and four division titles — but then he was fired in his seventh season after starting 0-4. As an offensive architect, he never had a top-10 attack despite drafting QB Deshaun Watson in 2017 — but he also had a unit outside the top 20 just twice, which is amazing considering that QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage were his starters for the first three years in Houston. (It’s worth noting that he was also terrible as a Belichick-style GM, which likely led to his dismissal after having the role for little more than a year — but that probably won’t matter much for how he performs in New England.)  

Given his work with McGloin and Hackenberg at Penn State and Watson in Houston, there’s legitimate reason to believe that O’Brien can help develop QB Mac Jones, especially since he was the OC/QBs coach at Alabama — Jones’ alma mater — for the 2021-22 seasons. Even though their time at Alabama didn’t overlap, Jones and O’Brien share an important frame of reference, which should theoretically help them work together.

Jan 8, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

I doubt O’Brien will be able to return the offense to a top-10 unit: He lacks 2021 OC Josh McDaniels’ creativity. But the offense will almost certainly be more functional than it was in 2022, and Jones will have a chance to prove himself in improved circumstances.

Klemm joins the Patriots this year as the replacement to Patricia, who somehow — in addition to coordinating the offense — oversaw the OL last year. A 2000 second-rounder, Klemm played tackle for the Patriots for the first five years of his career and won three Super Bowls with the team before ending his career in Green Bay. After years of coaching in the college ranks with a short stint with the Steelers (2019-20 assistant OL coach, 2021 OL coach), Klemm finds his way back to New England.

Sunseri played safety at Alabama under HC Nick Saban, who was Belichick’s DC on the 1991-94 Browns. After a three-year career in the NFL (2014-16), he returned to Alabama in 2019 as a graduate assistant and then did a year with the Patriots as a defensive coaching assistant before somehow catapulting himself up the ranks and over the wall to the position of RBs coach in 2021. 

Brown is a Patriots legend who played receiver, returner and even some situational corner for the team throughout his 15-year tenure (1993-2007). In 2016 he worked for the Patriots as a Bill Walsh Fellow, and then in 2019 he coached with the team in an unofficial capacity as an assistant to Judge, who was the ST coordinator/WRs coach.

In 2020 he joined the staff fully as the RBs/returners coach, and then in 2021 he shifted to a more natural role as WRs/returners coach. The Patriots is the only NFL organization Brown has ever played or coached for. He’s the total embodiment of “The Patriot Way.”

Douglas shares the title of WRs coach with Brown and was his assistant WRs coach last year. A young up-and-comer who played CB, WR, RB, S and LB at Michigan and Rutgers, Douglas jumped into college coaching after going undrafted in 2018 and joined the Patriots in 2021 as a Bill Walsh Fellow. Since then, he has quickly moved from defensive quality control to his current position.

Lawing replaces Caley as the TEs coach. After college, he did four years at Juniata (2009 TEs, 2010 passing game coordinator, 2011-12 OC) and then hitched his wagon to O’Brien’s star in 2013 when he worked at Penn State as a graduate assistant. Since then, he has followed O’Brien to the Texans (2014-16 defensive quality control, 2017-18 offensive assistant, 2019-20 TEs coach) and Alabama (2021-22 offensive analyst) and now the Patriots. He’s the one O’Brien acolyte in the world. 

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Unofficial DC: Bill Belichick
• DL Coach: DeMarcus Covington
• Outside LBs Coach: Steve Belichick
• Inside LBs Coach: Jerod Mayo
• CBs Coach: Mike Pellegrino
• Safeties Coach: Brian Belichick
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

The Patriots haven’t had an official DC for the past five years. The last guy to hold that post was 2012-17 DC Matt Patricia, who left the team in 2018 to be the Lions HC. I guess Belichick figures that if he doesn’t name an assistant to that position then he’s less likely to see that guy get poached later.

Not that it matters: Belichick is the Patriots defense, and all of his position coaches have been with the team in their current roles since 2020. That kind of staff continuity is incredibly uncommon. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a unit — much less a successful unit — keep all of its primary coaches for four straight seasons. Of course, it “helps” (in a manner of speaking) that two of his assistants are his sons — and I doubt that they’re going anywhere.

Covington is a former small-school WR who switched to defense when he started coaching in 2012. After five years in the college ranks, he joined the Patriots and has worked his way up from coaching assistant (2017-18) to outside LBs coach (2019) to DL coach (since 2020).

Steve Belichick — Bill’s older son — played lacrosse in college and was the long snapper for Rutgers as a senior before joining the Patriots in 2012 after graduation. Entering his 12th year with the team, he has advanced from defensive assistant (2012-15) to safeties coach (2016-18), secondary/safeties coach (2019) and now outside linebackers coach (since 2020). The guy is something of a character, but he probably knows ball.

Mayo is a Patriots lifer. In his eight years in the league (2008-15) — all of them with the Patriots — Mayo was the No. 10 overall pick, the Defensive Rookie of the Year, a seven-time team captain, a two-time Pro Bowler, a one-time first-team All-Pro and the unit’s top off-ball linebacker.

He was the heart of the defense. After retiring, he joined the Patriots as their inside LBs coach in 2019, and since then he increasingly has been talked about positively by owner Robert Kraft as a possible successor to Belichick. If the Patriots underperform in 2023 but Mayo garners interest for HC jobs, Kraft might be faced with the prospect of losing Mayo… or parting ways with Belichick to keep Mayo.   

Pellegrino is a former professional lacrosse player who started with the Patriots in 2015 as an intern and worked four years as a coaching assistant before being named CBs coach in 2019. Brian Belichick — Bill’s younger son — played lacrosse in college (like his brother) and then joined the Patriots after graduation. He was a scouting assistant in his first year with the team (2016), after which he advanced to coaching assistant (2017-19) and then safeties coach (since 2020).

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Cameron Achord
• assistant HC: Joe Judge
• Kick Returners Coach: Troy Brown
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Joe Houston

Achord is a brainiac with undergraduate degrees in computer information science and sports administration and a master’s degree in sports management.

After eight years in the college ranks at Southern Miss (2010-12) and Southwest Mississippi CC (2013-16), he joined the Patriots in 2018 as the assistant special teams coach under Judge. When he left the Patriots in 2020 to be Giants HC, Achord took his spot as ST coordinator.

The Patriots were No. 19 in special teams DVOA last year, but they were top-eight in both of the previous seasons under Achord.

Judge originally joined the Patriots in 2012 as a special teams assistant after three years at Alabama (2009-11) in the same role. In 2015 he was promoted to special teams coordinator, and then in 2019 he had the WRs coach title added to his job description so that he could be more attractive as a potential HC candidate.

After a disastrous two-year stint as Giants HC, he returned to the Patriots last year as the QBs coach and then failed up to assistant HC this year. While he reports directly to Belichick, Judge is likely to be a special teams resource for Achord, his former assistant.

Brown doubles as WRs coach and returners coach. A strong returner throughout his 15-year career — especially before he hit the wrong side of 30 — Brown saw return man Marcus Jones earn first-team All-Pro recognition last year as a rookie. Houston is a kicking specialist who joined the Patriots in 2020 after a one-year stint at Alabama as a special teams analyst.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Mac Jones
• Backups: Bailey Zappe, Malik Cunningham
• Borderline: Trace McSorley
• Notable Turnover: QB Brian Hoyer (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Mac Jones is a 2021 first-rounder who entered the NFL as a Davey O’Brien Award-winning All-American national champion out of Alabama, and he flashed as a rookie with a 67.6% completion rate and 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt in a Pro Bowl campaign.

In his second season, though, he markedly regressed amidst incompetent OC oversight and a midseason QB controversy (65.2% completion rate, 6.3 AY/A). Jones is a limited athlete who doesn’t produce out of structure, but he’s an accurate, smart and anticipatory pocket passer who can dominate a defense when protected by his line and surrounded by playmaking receivers. This season is incredibly important for Jones and the team.

Bailey Zappe is a 2022 fourth-rounder who filled in for Jones in the middle of the season and played well with a 2-0 record, 70.7% completion rate and 8.1 AY/A. Zappe doesn’t have a strong arm or quick release, and he’s not an anticipatory thrower or league-average runner. But he plays with moxie and can execute a system to perfection, as evidenced by his record-breaking senior season with 5,967 yards and 61 touchdowns passing at Western Kentucky.

Given Belichick’s seeming indifference toward Jones, there’s a non-zero chance that Zappe could steal his starting job at some point this season.

Malik Cunningham is an undrafted rookie who amounts to a five-years-too-late consolation prize for not drafting Lamar Jackson in Round 1 of the 2018 draft. Jackson’s eventual heir at Louisville, Cunningham is a four-year dual-threat starter who was efficient as a passer (8.8 AY/A) and prolific as a runner (618-3,179-50 rushing, including sacks).

He’s small (6-foot and 192 pounds) and raw as a passer, but he has decent athleticism (4.53-second 40-yard dash) and $200,000 guaranteed with his contract, so I bet he’ll beat out McSorley (2019 sixth-rounder), who has one NFL start and a 3.2 AY/Y on his stat sheet.

Projections as of Aug. 1.

Running Backs

• Starter: Rhamondre Stevenson
• Backups: Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris
• Notable Turnover: Damien Harris (Bills) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Rhamondre Stevenson is a 2021 fourth-rounder with grind-it-out size (6-foot and 227 pounds) and pass-catching chops (83-544-1 receiving on 106 targets in two years). After impressing in limited action as a rookie (4.6 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per target), he started out 2022 as a change-of-pace No. 2 RB but finished it as the clear No. 1 option with 1,461 yards and six touchdowns from scrimmage. He’s an ideal three-down back to power a ground-based offensive attack.

Ty Montgomery is a 30-year-old WR-to-RB convert who joined the team last year but missed the entire season after Week 1 due to injury. He’s listed by the team at WR and has been playing heavily in the slot in training camp — but I think that has more to do with the team experimenting than actually planning to move him back to WR.

With his size (6-foot and 220 pounds), Montgomery is a functional runner (4.5 yards per carry), and with his skill set he’s a capable receiver (5.6 yards per target) who can line up across the formation. He seems like the leading candidate to be the team’s pass-situation back.

Pierre Strong is a 2022 fourth-rounder who essentially redshirted/special-teamed his rookie year, as so many Patriots RBs have done before him. But he has elite athleticism (4.37-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 207 pounds) and flashed last year on limited offensive action (142 yards, one touchdown on 10 carries, seven targets). He could carve out a role this season as a change-of-pace speedster.

Kevin Harris is a 2022 sixth-rounder with a lead back build (5-foot-10 and 225 pounds) and between-the-tackles power. He did little as a rookie (18-52-1 rushing), but he was a strong SEC producer as a true sophomore (1,297 yards, 16 TDs in 10 games), and if Stevenson were to suffer an injury there’s a chance that Harris would actually assume the early-down role.

Projections as of Aug. 1.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, DeVante Parker
• WR Backups: Kendrick Bourne, Matthew Slater
• TE Starter: Hunter Henry
• TE Backup: Mike Gesicki
• Borderline: WRs Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte, TE Anthony Firkser
• Notable Turnover: WRs Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) and Nelson Agholor (Ravens), TE Jonnu Smith (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

JuJu Smith-Schuster feels like he has been in the league forever, but he is just 26 years old and joining the Patriots off the best campaign he has had (78-933-3 receiving, 9.2 yards per target) since his 2018 second-season 111-1,426-7 receiving breakout.

While he’s primarily a slot receiver, JuJu did play a career-high 57.9% of his snaps on the perimeter last year and probably has the under-appreciated inside/outside flexibility. He’s the one-for-one Meyers replacement.

Tyquon Thornton is a 2022 second-rounder with elite athleticism (4.28-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 181 pounds), but he did little as a rookie (22-247-2 receiving on 45 targets) and never had a 1,000-yard season in college.

DeVante Parker is a 30-yard-old veteran who joined the Patriots last year after occasionally terrorizing them for the first seven seasons of his career with the Dolphins. A perimeter-only pass catcher, Parker was efficient in 2022 (11.5 yards per target) but underwhelming (31-539-3 receiving). He’s a boom/bust player who hasn’t strung together a series of outbursts since his outlier 2019 season (72-1,202-9 receiving). 

Kendrick Bourne is a 28-year-old rotational receiver who had the best season of his career when he joined the Patriots in 2021 (55-800-5 receiving, 12-125-0 rushing), but last year he was demoted to the No. 5 WR role and had just 473 yards and a touchdown from scrimmage. Still, he’s an explosive player (8.9 yards per target for his career) who can contribute when given opportunities.

Matthew Slater has played 15 years in the NFL — all with the Patriots — and is an entrenched special teams ace with 10 Pro Bowls, three second-team All-Pros and two first-team All-Pros. He has just one reception and two carries for his career, but if ever a non-return man were to make the Hall of Fame for his special teams prowess, it would be Slater.

Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte are sixth-round rookies who are both pushing for roster spots. Douglas has slot-only size (5-foot-8 and 179 pounds) and raw route-running skills, but he was a multiphase producer for a bad Liberty team last year (79-993-6 receiving, 5-105-1 rushing) and has functionality as a punt and kick returner.

Boutte is a 21-year-old five-star inside/outside receiver who broke out as a freshman (45-735-5 receiving in 10 games) and balled out as a sophomore (38-509-9, six games) but saw his second season cut short by an ankle injury that required multiple surgeries, which might have impacted his subpar junior year (48-538-2, 11 games), which in turn caused him to fall in the draft. If Boutte can return to his pre-2022 form, the Patriots might’ve found themselves a true No. 1 WR — but first he needs to make the team.

Hunter Henry is a 29-year-old contributor who has been solid if unspectacular since joining the Patriots two years ago after five seasons with the Chargers. He is efficient with 8.2 yards per target for his career and can play inline and in the slot, but he’s not a high-volume member of the pass offense (he has never had 100 targets in a year), and he’s a modest-at-best blocker.

Mike Gesicki is a 27-year-old offseason acquisition who will assume Smith’s vacated role as the No. 2 TE after five years with the Dolphins. More of a big-bodied slot WR than an actual TE — he’s a run-blocking liability who lacks the all-around versatility of his predecessor — Gesicki was a productive pass catcher in his middle Miami seasons (177-2,053-13 on 286 targets), but he’s coming off a down 2022 season in a new offense (32-362-5), and now he joins a new offense once again. He might end up with more receiving production, but Henry will likely see more playing time.

Anthony Firkser is a 28-year-old yeoman who has made his bones under TEs coach-turned-OC-turned HC Arthur Smith (2018-21 Titans, 2022 Falcons). He does nothing well but everything well enough to earn a spot as a No. 3 TE — but the Patriots kept only two TEs last year, and if they’re not able to sneak Firkser onto their practice squad then they’ll simply go with one of the other veteran TEs behind him. 

Projections as of Aug. 1.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, C David Andrews, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Riley Reiff
• Backups: OT Calvin Anderson, T/G Conor McDermott, C/G Jake Andrews, G/T Sidy Sow, OG Atonio Mafi
• Borderline: T/G Andrew Stueber
• Notable Turnover: OTs Isaiah Wynn (Dolphins), Marcus Cannon (free agent) and Yodny Cajuste (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Brown is a 30-year-old one-time Pro Bowler entering the third year of his second stint with the Patriots after spending 2018 as the team’s LT. After spending most of his career and 2021 at RT, he shifted back to LT in 2022 and allowed a career-high eight sacks and 39 pressures. He’s probably better suited to the right side.

Strange is a 2022 first-rounder who started 17 games as a rookie but forfeited five sacks and had 48.3 PFF run-blocking grade. David Andrews has been starting at the pivot for the Patriots ever since his 2015 UDFA rookie season. He has no accolades but is an average-at-worst run and pass blocker. 

Onwenu is a 2020 sixth-rounder who opened his career at RT, kicked inside when needed and then locked down the RG spot last year. Strong in both phases, he has never had a PFF grade lower than 77.5. Reiff is a 34-year-old middle-of-the-road veteran who has never made the Pro Bowl but also never been a below-average player. Now on his fourth team in four years, Reiff wasn’t an every-week starter for the Bears last year when healthy — and that’s concerning — but he probably won’t be worse than the rotation of RTs the Patriots had last year.

Anderson is a 2019 UDFA who returns to the Patriots after briefly opening his career there before catching on with the Broncos, where he has made 12 OT starts of average-ish quality over the past three years.

McDermott is a 2017 sixth-rounder whom the Patriots drafted, cut as a rookie and then added last year after he spent over five seasons with the Bills and Jets. He’s slightly subpar in both phases but not egregiously so and he offers T/G flexibility.

Jake Andrews is a fourth-round rookie who started 37 games at Troy at C (2022) and RG (2020-21). He might not have the size (6-foot-3 and 305 pounds) to play guard in the NFL, but he has the athleticism (5.15-second 40-yard dash) to move as a blocking pivot. 

Sow is a 25-year-old fourth-round rookie with five years as a starter at Eastern Michigan, first at LT (2018) and then at LG (2019-22). He’s raw but athletic (5.07-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 323 pounds).

Mafi is a fifth-round rookie who started 14 games at NT in his first two years at UCLA, but then he pulled a Patricia and switched to offense in 2020, eventually making 16 starts in 2021-22. He has great size (6-foot-3 and 338 pounds) but has struggled with weight (he showed up to UCLA at 411 pounds) and is a project.

Both Sow and Mafi will need to hold off Stueber, a four-star 2022 seventh-rounder who missed last year with a torn hamstring but has elite size (6-foot-7 and 325 pounds) and exhibited T/G flexibility in Michigan’s Joe Moore Award-winning OL. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise
• EDGE Backups: Josh Uche, Keion White, Anfernee Jennings
• DT Starters: Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore
• DT Backups: Lawrence Guy, Carl Davis, Daniel Ekuale
• Borderline: EDGE DaMarcus Mitchell  
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Judon is a four-time Pro Bowler with 28 sacks since joining the Patriots in 2021 after five years with the Ravens. He’s the star of a DL that returns all its core contributors. Wise is a 2017 fourth-rounder with edge/interior versatility. He’s a subpar run defender (59.7 PFF grade last year) but above-average pass rusher (eight sacks in 2022).

Uche is a 2020 second-rounder who started his career slowly but showcased near-elite situational skills last year with 56 pressures and 11.5 sacks on 285 pass rushes. White is a second-round rookie and the lone key addition to the line. Like Wise, he has the size to function as a tweener (6-foot-5 and 281 pounds) but the athleticism (4.79-second 40-yard dash) and production (7.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss in final season) to be a pure NFL edge. Due to his transition from TE, he’s still raw as a defender, but White has instant upside. 

Jennings is a 2020 third-rounder with just one career sack but strong run defense (78.0 PFF grade last year). I imagine he’ll be able to hold off Mitchell, a 2022 UDFA who played just five defensive snaps last year.

Godchaux joined the Patriots in 2021 after four years with the Dolphins. His counting stats are modest, but he can line up at nose thanks to his size (6-foot-3 and 330 pounds) and has led the team’s interior DL in snaps in each of the past two seasons (659 in 2022, 673 in 2021). Barmore is a 2021 second-rounder who missed seven games last year to injury but has flashed in his two seasons. Although he’s a liability in run defense (46.9 and 44.7 PFF grades), he’s an asset as a power pass rusher (74 pressures).  

Guy is a 33-year-old veteran who has been a Patriots DL staple since joining the team in 2017. Once an above-average player, Guy has started 91 games for the Patriots but declined noticeably over the past two years and had a career-low 53.5 PFF grade in 2022. Guy is no lock to make the roster, and if he does then he will likely play behind Barmore.

Davis is a 31-year-old rotational nose who joined the Patriots in 2020. He has a respectable 15 pressures on 258 pass rushes over the past three years but is an orange-and-red PFF run defense liability. Ekuale is a 2018 UDFA who has played mainly as an unremarkable interior pass rusher for the Patriots over the past two years. The strength of the interior DL is its unit-wide continuity, not talent.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai
• Backups: Mack Wilson, Marte Mapu, Chris Board
• Injured: Raekwon McMillan (IR, Achilles)
• Borderline: Jourdan Heilig
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Bentley is a 2018 fifth-rounder who opened his career as a rotational contributor but has been a starter for the past three years and has steadily played more snaps every season. Last year he had a career-best 80.4 PFF grade thanks to strong marks in run defense and coverage.

Tavai is a 2019 second-rounder who was selected by the Patricia-led Lions in 2019, cut by the Dan Campbell Lions in 2021 and then reunited with Patricia when the Patriots signed him off waivers. A bit of an edge/box tweener, Tavai was elevated to the starting lineup last year and had a standout campaign against the run and in coverage thanks largely to sure tackling (89.9 PFF grade).

Wilson is a 2019 fifth-rounder yet to live up to the five-star recruitment pedigree he carried with him to Alabama. He played well in 2021 for the Browns, but he reverted to his mediocre 2019-20 form after the Patriots acquired him via trade last year. Bad against the run (56.0 PFF grade) and terrible in coverage (44.9 PFF grade), Wilson is at least a willing special teams player (284 snaps last year), so he’ll probably stick on the roster. 

Mapu is a small-school third-round rookie S-to-LB convert who was the 2022 Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year and an FCS All-American as a senior with 76 tackles and two interceptions. With his beefed-up size (6-foot-3 and 230 pounds) and safety skills, Mapu has the potential to be a dynamic run stopper and cover man.

Board joins the Patriots after five years with the Ravens (2018-21) and Lions (2022). While he has never been a meaningful defensive contributor, Board is a special teams stalwart with 300-plus snaps each year of his career. Heilig is a rookie UDFA who racked up 21 special teams tackles and 873 special teams snaps as a four-year ace at Appalachian State. For the past 19 years, the Pats have had a rookie UDFA on their initial 53-man roster, and Heilig has a shot to make it 20. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant
• CB Backups: Jalen Mills, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones
• S Starters: Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips
• S Backups: Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Cody Davis
• Borderline: S Joshuah Bledsoe
• Notable Turnover: FS Devin McCourty (Retired) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Gonzalez is a 21-year-old first-round rookie with the size (6-foot-1 and 197 pounds), athleticism (4.38-second 40-yard dash), production (four interceptions, seven pass breakups last year) and physicality to develop into a shutdown corner.

Jonathan Jones is a 2016 UDFA who has been with the Patriots his entire career and one of the team’s top corners since 2017. A slot man for most of his career, he played on the perimeter in 2022 and might do so once again in 2023, given that he held receivers to 6.3 yards per target. Bryant is a 2020 UDFA who has played regularly over the past two years, but his hold on the starting slot job might be tenuous. He’s a strong run supporter (111 tackles since 2021), but he has never had a PFF converge grade of even 60.

Mills is listed at S, and he indeed played the position with the Eagles in 2020, but the Patriots have used him mostly at CB over the past two years, and he opened his career with the Eagles in 2016 as a perimeter corner. He’s an average-at-best cover man, but Mills can line up in all four DB spots and is a willing run defender.

Jack Jones is a 2022 fourth-rounder who seemingly lacks the size (5-foot-11 and 180 pounds) and athleticism (4.51-second 40-yard dash) to play on the perimeter, but he lined up outside as a rotational CB last year and had success, allowing a catch rate of only 50% as a rookie. He’s dealing with a legal situation — he has nine weapons charges stemming from an arrest in June at Logan Airport — but his physical playing style could put him in competition for a starting role.

Marcus Jones is a 2022 third-rounder most known for his return ability, but he flashed as a rookie CB with two interceptions and seven passes defended, and as a senior he had a ballhawking five interceptions and 13 passes defended. Despite his size (5-foot-8 and 188 pounds), Jones manned the perimeter last year and had PFF grades above 65 across the board. He’s an excellent depth CB.

Dugger is a 2020 second-round box safety who has gotten better every season. With seven interceptions and 170 tackles over the past two years, he’s strong in coverage and run defense.

Phillips is a 31-year-old veteran who joined the Patriots in 2020 and has lined up all across the formation over the past three years, including perimeter corner and edge linebacker. I wouldn’t say that Phillips is a centerfield safety — because he isn’t — but of the three startable safeties the Patriots have he’s the one who best fits that description, so he’ll likely be tasked with filling McCourty’s vacated FS spot.

Peppers joined the Patriots last year after five years with the Browns (2017-18) and Giants (2019-21). A strong run defender (84.6 PFF grade last year) and pass rusher (45 pressures on 210 opportunities), Peppers is a strong No. 3 S who offers some LB flexibility with his size (5-foot-11 and 217 pounds).   

Schooler is a 2022 UDFA who played none on defense last year but led the team with 12 special teams tackles. Davis — like Schooler — is a special teams-only contributor. The 34-year-old ace signed with the Patriots in 2020 and had five tackles in six games before suffering a season-ending knee injury last year.

Bledsoe is a 2021 sixth-rounder who was terrible last year (33.9 PFF grade), but the Patriots might choose to keep him if they want four traditional safeties. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Chad Ryland
• Punter: Bryce Baringer
• Holder: Bryce Baringer
• Long Snapper: Joe Cardona
• Kick Returner: Marcus Jones
• Punt Returner: Marcus Jones
• Borderline: K Nick Folk, P Corliss Waitman, LS Tucker Addington
• Notable Turnover: Ps Jake Bailey (Dolphins) and Michael Palardy (free agent)

Ryland is a rookie fourth-rounder who improved his accuracy and length throughout his five years in college. In his three final seasons, he had a conversion rate of at least 82.5% in each year, and for his career he connected on 60% of his field goal attempts of 50-plus yards. At this stage in their respective professional journeys, Folk is probably the safer player. In his four years with the team, he has an 89.3% field goal rate and is 12-of-17 converting on attempts of 50-plus yards. But he turns 39 years old in November — and the team just invested actual draft capital in a kicker.

Baringer is an All-American sixth-round rookie who had a nation-high 49.0 yards per punt last year. The dude is a bomber. Waitman averaged 46.6 yards last year with the Broncos in his first full season as a No. 1 P. I’d be surprised if Baringer doesn’t win the job.

Cardona has been long snapping for the Patriots since his 2015 rookie season. This offseason he signed a four-year $6.3M contract with $2.6M guaranteed, making him the league’s highest-paid LS. As if that’s not enough, the dude was a decorated high school lacrosse player who started four years at Navy. Belichick would rather die than cut this guy. Addington filled in for an injured Cardona at the end of last season, but he’s not surviving final cuts.

Jones was a first-team All-Pro returner last year as a rookie with 12.5 yards per punt return and 23.9 yards per kick return, and that wasn’t a fluke. As a senior, he was an All-American return man who won the Jet Award (as the nation’s top returner) and the Paul Hornung Award (as the nation’s most versatile high-level performer). If Jones isn’t the league’s best returner, he’s certainly top-five.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Patriots’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 32
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
• Opponents: vs. PHI, vs. MIA, at NYJ, at DAL

I don’t need to belabor this: The Patriots have the league’s hardest schedule based on the win totals of their opponents.

Right out of the gate, they’re not insignificant underdogs in four games against teams who all have a good chance to make the playoffs. How they perform in that first stretch of games will be telling. Given that the Patriots have a new OC and tend to start slower on defense as they experiment with personnel and schemes, they could go 0-4 to open the year.

And if that happens, they could be a team to buy low throughout the remainder of the season.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Patriots.

• HC Bill Belichick sees his defense regress to average because of the difficult schedule of opposing offenses.
• OC Bill O’Brien turns out to be only slightly better at calling offense than Matt Patricia is.
• QB Mac Jones improves marginally but still struggles to pick up his fourth offensive system in four years and is benched for QB Bailey Zappe in Week 9 before reclaiming the starting job in Week 12.
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson has career-low efficiency as defenses focus on stopping him because they don’t respect the passing game.
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster tweaks a knee in Week 2 and battles with the injury for the rest of the season until a pulled hamstring against the Steelers in Week 14 shuts him down.
• TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are limited in the passing game, as O’Brien would rather funnel the offense through the WRs.
• LT Trent Brown has the worst year of his career on the blindside, LG Cole Strange has another subpar season and RT Riley Reiff falls off the age cliff in his first year with the team. 
• EDGEs Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise and Josh Uche all get pressure on opposing passers but fail — largely through variance — to translate it into sacks.
• The interior DL gets gashed repeatedly on power runs, which enables opponents to extend their drives.
• LBs Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai fall short in their coverage responsibilities because they start keying on the running game in order to compensate for the inadequacies of the interior DL.
• CB Christian Gonzalez has a steep and painful learning curve against No. 1 WRs, and slot CB Myles Bryant reveals himself to be a coverage liability before ultimately being benched in Week 10.
• FS Adrian Phillips struggles as the centerfield replacement for retired Deven McCourty.
• K Chad Ryland beats out Nick Folk in a camp battle and then proceeds to kick like a rookie.
• Patriots go 6-11, Belichick reaches a mutual agreement with the team to part ways, and new HC Jerod Mayo trades for QB Jimmy Garropolo to be his 2024 starter.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Patriots.

• HC Bill Belichick luxuriates in the glory of a defense that returns to the top five in scoring.
• OC Bill O’Brien upgrades the offense to a league-average unit.
• QB Mac Jones develops throughout the season and plays well enough after the Week 11 bye to make it a no-brainer decision to pick up his fifth-year option in the offseason.
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson finishes with 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns from scrimmage, and Belichick says that he is the finest RB he has ever coached after Stevenson carries the team to the playoffs with his Week 18 performance.
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster makes his first Pro Bowl since 2018.
• TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki combine for 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns in O’Brien’s TE-friendly system.
• LT Trent Brown improves in his second consecutive season on the blindside, LG Cole Strange makes the anticipated second-year leap and RT Riley Reiff has one more serviceable campaign left in his aging body.
• EDGEs Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise and Josh Uche combine for 40 sacks.
• The interior DL plays just well enough in run defense thanks to the development of third-year Christian Barmore.
• LBs Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai form a do-it-all tandem that energizes the entire defense.
• CB Christian Gonzalez does his best impression of 2022 Sauce Gardner, and slot CB Myles Bryant is benched so that CB Jonathan Jones can kick inside, which makes room for the rotation of CBs Jack Jones and Marcus Jones on the perimeter.
• FS Adrian Phillips loses a training camp battle to S/CB Jalen Mills, who has the best season of his career as a deep safety.
• K Chad Ryland beats out Nick Folk and becomes a Patriots folk hero with a near-perfect rookie campaign.
• Patriots go 10-7, secure road victories against the Jaguars and Bills with last-minute field goals, lose by four points to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, and then announce three days later that former OC Josh McDaniels will return to the team as assistant HC in order to aid in the continued development of Jones as the QB of the future.

In-season angles

I view the Patriots as a neutral betting team, but there might be some spots this year when I decide to take a position for or against them.

While most teams/coaches tend to be more profitable ATS as underdogs than favorites — probably because people like betting on favorites — Belichick has historically trended in the opposite direction.

Since 2003 (the farthest back my data goes), Belichick has been better as a favorite than a dog.

• Belichick as Favorite: 167-121-8 ATS (14.0% ROI)
• Belichick as Underdog: 34-26-2 ATS (11.0% ROI)

My theory for why this is the case has to do with Belichick’s defense and his mindset. He often uses man coverage, which is like leverage in that it amplifies both the benefit you get if you have the better players and the injury you receive if you have the lesser players. So in favorable situations, Belichick could have an exaggerated edge. In unfavorable situations, he might have an amplified handicap. On top of that, Belichick tends not to let up late in games. He continues to attack inferior teams and gives no quarter in the fourth quarter.

So I don’t think it’s surprising that he has outperformed as a favorite.

And we’ve seen this favorite/underdog split persist and even widen in the post-Brady era, specifically with Jones or Zappe at QB.

• Belichick as Favorite With Jones and Zappe: 12-7-1 ATS (24.3% ROI)
• Belichick as Favorite With Jones and Zappe: 15-5 ML (11.5% ROI)
• Belichick as Underdog With Jones and Zappe: 4-10 ATS (37.7% ROI for faders)
• Belichick as Underdog With Jones and Zappe: 4-10 ML (23.7% ROI for faders)

If I bet on the Patriots this year, it will likely be when they face outmatched opponents. If I bet against them, I will probably do so when they are outclassed.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like any of the futures markets for the team… but I love one specific bet in the awards market.

Rhamondre Stevenson Offensive Player of the Year (+15000, DraftKings)

Join me, please, in an imaginative journey to the outer realms of reality.

Conceptualize a world in which HC Bill Belichick’s defense is a top-five unit. That’s not hard to do. They have unrivaled continuity in their defensive staff and personnel, and they’ve added a couple players who could be difference makers in CB Christian Gonzalez and EDGE Keion White.

Last year, the Patriots defense was Nos. 2 and 3 in takeaways and EPA per play; the year before that, Nos. 3 and 4. It wouldn’t be that unrealistic for the Patriots to have a strong defense this year.

Now, explore a universe in which OC/QBs coach Bill O’Brien is significantly better than former OC Matt Patricia and former QBs coach Joe Judge.

In such a universe, the Patriots could finish Nos. 8-12 in scoring thanks to a defense that gets stops and an offense that is efficient and funneled through the backfield. It’s probably not unfair to assume that the guy who has coached offense his entire career is better at coaching offense than the guys who have coached defense and special teams.

Finally, theorize a cosmic plane in which the Patriots no longer have RB Damien Harris and decide to use Stevenson as a workhorse.

In 2016, the team gave 299 carries to RB LeGarrette Blount in 16 games. Stevenson is basically a smaller Blount who can command targets in the passing game. Last year, with Harris playing 11 games, Stevenson was No. 10 in the league with 279 touches. Without Harris, he could add 50 more touches this year — about three more per game — and that total of 329 would’ve made him No. 4 last year, tied with Christian McCaffrey and Nick Chubb.

That’s not unfeasible for a big-bodied 25-year-old three-down back. Honestly, he could have more.

It’s possible — quite possible — for circumstances to align for Stevenson to have a massive breakout season.

If you look at our fantasy rankings, Stevenson is our No. 10 RB. He’s also the No. 10 RB in our season-long projections. And he’s actually the No. 9 RB in our ADP tool. If a guy is universally believed to be a top-10 RB, then he has a real chance to finish No. 1 overall. It’s within the range of outcomes.

Now, let me list for you all the RBs who have +15000 odds at DraftKings to win Offensive Player of the Year:

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Rashaad Penny
• Miles Sanders
• James Conner
• Jamaal Williams
• Raheem Mostert
• A.J. Dillon

One of these guys is not like the others.

For crying out loud, Stevenson has the same odds as Dalton Kincaid.

Stevenson is right ahead of Breece Hall (+4500), Najee Harris (+7500), Jahmyr Gibbs (+7500) and Travis Etienne (+7500) in our rankings — yet he’s nowhere near those guys in odds.

He’s right behind Derrick Henry (+3000) in our rankings, and it’s comical to think that Henry has a 3.23% chance to win the award while Stevenson has only a 0.66% chance (based on their implied probabilities, via our odds calculator). 

In all likelihood, Stevenson will be the centerpiece — the identity — of the Patriots offense, and he has the upside for a massive year. He almost certainly won’t win Offensive Player of the Year, but his current odds should be way shorter than they are.

You can tail the Stevenson longshot on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and start betting today!