2023 New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Last year, the New Orleans Saints went 7-10 in their first season without HC Sean Payton and second without QB Drew Brees. New HC Dennis Allen, a longtime Payton lieutenant, ensured organizational continuity as he transitioned from DC to the top role, and his defense was top-10 in points and yards allowed for the third straight season. 

The offense, though, stagnated under QBs Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston and finished outside the top 20 in scoring for the first time since 2005 — the last time the Saints were without Payton or Brees. In Allen, the Saints might have an acceptable heir to Payton.

He’ll get another shot to prove himself this year. And in new QB Derek Carr — whom Allen recruited this offseason after drafting in 2014 in his final year as Raiders HC — maybe the team will finally have its successor to Brees’ empty QB throne. This year, the Saints will look to improve their record, make the playoffs and see how long their postseason run can last.

In this 2023 Saints preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Saints preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 6. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 6. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 6.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 6.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 6.

General manager and head coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: Mickey Loomis
• Head Coach: Dennis Allen
• Team Power Rating: +0
• Team Power Ranking: No. 16
• Coach Ranking: No. 31

Loomis has been in the NFL since Ronald Reagan’s first term as president, joining the Seahawks in 1983 as a finance guy and then working his way up to VP of finance (1990-92) and executive VP (1992-98). On a team with no GM, Loomis functioned in a co-GM-ish capacity with Randy Mueller (VP of football operations): Loomis handled the money, and Mueller handled the players. 

After the Seahawks hired HC Mike Holmgren and gave him GM power, Mueller joined the Saints as their GM in 2000 and brought Loomis with him as his top lieutenant and director of football operations. In May 2002, owner Tom Benson fired Mueller (following his decision to trade RB Ricky Williams in March), citing “communication problems” and saying that he had not been informed of the Williams trade before it happened. Shortly thereafter, Loomis was named GM, and he has had that role ever since.

Out of executives who aren’t also owners (Jerry Jones) or coaches (Bill Belichick), Loomis is the league’s longest-tenured GM. Evidently his style of communication worked for Benson and now works for his wife Gayle, who assumed control of the team in 2018 after her husband’s death. As GM, Loomis has managed the challenges of working in a family-operated business. For eight years (2012-19) Loomis wasn’t just the GM for the Saints.

He was also the executive VP of basketball operations for the NBA’s Pelicans, which are also owned by the Benson family. Overseeing personnel for two different teams isn’t like running back-to-back marathons. Hard, but theoretically possible. It’s like running two separate marathons at the same time. Impossible. Yet somehow Loomis did it.

Unlike many GMs, Loomis isn’t a scout by trade. He’s an accountant. A trained administrator. A “salary cap guy.” As such, he has masterfully maneuvered the cap, explored its nuances, and exploited its loopholes for years, enabling the team to field a competitive roster throughout the Brees/Payton era. Of course, you could argue that over the past two seasons (with its 16-18 record) the team has finally paid the bill for its previous salary cap shenanigans — but 15 years of contention and one classic Super Bowl victory for two seasons of near-.500 play is a trade any franchise or sports fan would make. 

Despite not rising up from the personnel ranks, Loomis has proven to be a good evaluator of talent. In 2006, with the team at a crossroads after its 3-13 Katrina season, Loomis fired HC Jim Haslett, cut QB Aaron Brooks and hired Payton. And instead of using the No. 2 pick to draft one of QBs Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler — which is what I believe most GMs in his position would’ve done — he signed Brees to a six-year $60M deal and then used the No. 2 pick on RB Reggie Bush, who never lived up to his draft capital but who did help the team jumpstart its offense as a rookie (1,307 scrimmage yards, 9 all-purpose TDs) and eventually win a Super Bowl (212 yards, 3 TDs in 2009-10 postseason).

At the pivotal moment, Loomis made the right football decisions, and the team is still cashing dividend checks from those early investments.

He did get caught up in the team’s 2012 bounty scandal. The league’s official investigation determined that Benson learned about the team’s bounty operation and told Loomis to end it, but he didn’t. As a result, he was suspended for half the season. And ESPN’s Outside the Lines reported in April 2012 that Loomis had used unsanctioned recording devices in 2002-04 to spy on opposing teams and, specifically, learn their play calls.

Although an investigation found no corroborating evidence and Loomis was never punished for the reported infractions, the fact that he didn’t sue ESPN for defamation is perhaps informative. Not a scout. And maybe not a boy scout.

But if I were an NFL owner who needed to hire a GM to run my team, Loomis would be on my shortlist of candidates… and yet I’m not sold on his selection of Allen as coach. Allen makes sense as a transitional choice for the post-Payton era.

He was with the Saints in the early Payton days (2006-07 assistant DL coach, 2008-10 secondary coach), and he was with them in the later Payton days (2015 senior defensive assistant, 2015-21 DC). As the Saints DC, he took a unit that was No. 32 in scoring and got three top-10 (and five top-14) seasons out of it in six years. From an organizational perspective, he makes sense.

But I’m skeptical that he’s actually a good HC. With the 2012-14 Raiders, he went 8-28 and was fired before the end of his third season. And I’m not sure he’s even a good DC. As the 2011 Broncos DC, he oversaw a unit that was No. 24 in scoring. His Raiders were bottom-five in defense every year.

I don’t blame him for the 2015 Saints defense (No. 32), which was Rob Ryan’s unit to start the year (Allen replaced him midseason) — but the 2016 Saints defense was barely better (No. 31). It wasn’t until 2017 — when Loomis selected CB Marshon Lattimore, FS Marcus Williams, EDGE Trey Hendrickson and LB Alex Anzalone in the draft and signed EDGE Alex Okafor and LBs A.J. Klein and Manti Te’o in free agency — that the defense drastically improved.

And that begs the question: Have the Saints had a good defense for the past six years because of Allen?… or because they’ve had good players? I lean toward the latter.

As an in-game decision-maker, Allen leaves a lot to be desired. Last year, the Saints were dead last in fourth-down aggressiveness on offense. That feels like something you’d get with a defense-focused coach.

If you wanted to argue that Allen is a good coordinator with the potential to develop into a good coach, I wouldn’t say that you’re wrong. But we’re yet to see anything to indicate that he’s a good coach now… and the evidence suggests that he might be overrated as a coordinator.

Dennis Allen coaching record

• Years: 4 (1 with Saints)
• Playoffs: 0 (0)
• Division Titles: 0 (0)
• Super Bowls: 0 (0)
• Championships: 0 (0)
• Win Total Record: 0-4 (0-1)
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -2.1 (-2)
• Regular Season: 15-38 (.283) [7-10 (.412)]
• Playoff Record: NA
• Against the Spread: 21-31-1 (-21.9% ROI) [7-10 (-21.5% ROI)]
• Moneyline: 15-38 (-37.7% ROI) [7-10 (-20.5% ROI)]
• Over/Under: 22-30-1 (12.1% ROI, Under) [6-11 (23.6% ROI, Under)]

Saints stats in parentheses and brackets. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 Saints offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael
• Offensive Playcaller: Pete Carmichael
• Senior Offensive Assistant: Bob Bicknell
• OL Coach: Doug Marrone
• Passing Game Coordinator/QBs Coach: Ronald Curry
• RBs Coach: Joel Thomas
• WRs Coach: Kodi Burns
• TEs Coach: Clancy Barone
• Notable Turnover: Run Game Coordinator/TEs Coach Dan Roushar (Tulane)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Carmichael isn’t Payton, but he’s the closest the Saints can hope to get to him. After working for the 2000 Browns (TEs coach), 2001 Redskins (quality control) and 2002-05 Chargers (quality control, then assistant WRs coach), Carmichael joined Payton’s first Saints staff in 2006 as the QBs coach, and he has been with the team ever since. In 2007, he became the passing game coordinator in addition to the QBs coach, and then in 2009 he advanced to the OC position. From that point to Brees’ retirement after the 2020 season, the Saints were top-12 in offensive scoring and yards every year. Payton and Brees get the supermajority of the credit for that achievement, but Carmichael gets credit as well.

In 2021, the offense was No. 28 in yards but lucked into No. 19 in scoring with QBs Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian and Ian Book. Last year, with professional veteran QB Andy Dalton starting 14 games, the offense improved to No. 19 in yards — but dropped to No. 22 in scoring. With Carr at QB, we should see Carmichael get the offense back to respectability, or at least mediocrity. It helps that Carmichael returns almost his entire staff.

Bicknell joined the Saints last year in his current role and has a wealth of experience to draw from, given that he has coached both sides of the ball in college and NFL Europe and has overseen OLs, WRs and TEs in the NFL. Marrone is a TE/OL coach who worked as Payton’s first OC with the 2006-08 Saints.

Nov 27, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) gestures after making a play against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

After a long and winding road with stops at Syracuse (2009-12 HC), Bills (2013-14 HC), Jaguars (2015-16 OL coach/interim HC, 2017-20 HC) and Alabama (2021 OL coach), he returned to the Saints last year in his current role to help out Carmichael in the post-Payton era. Also, he’s probably hoping to be named Saints HC if Allen fails. Let’s be real.

Curry was a much-touted, dual-threat recruit who underwhelmed in four years at North Carolina, so he made the QB-to-WR transition as a prospect and went on to have a promising career (he was the No. 1 receiver for the 2006-07 Raiders), but his NFL tenure was marred by multiple Achilles injuries.

After retiring, he coached high school for a few years and then served as an assistant with the 2014-15 49ers before joining the Saints and working his way up from assistant (2016-17) to WRs coach (2018-20) to now pass game coordinator/QBs coach (since 2021). Thomas is a career-long RBs coach who started in the college ranks and then made the jump to the Saints in 2015. Under his guidance, the team’s backfield has been one of the league’s most productive for years.

Burns was a dual-threat QB who started for Auburn and then switched to WR and played as a rotational contributor on the championship-winning 2010 team, after which he spent 10 years in the college ranks (he was the co-OC/pass game coordinator and WRs coach for 2016-20 Auburn) before joining the Saints in 2022 in his current role.

Barone is a strong TE replacement for Roushar, given that he has been an NFL OL/TE coach almost every year since 2004 and has overseen Pro Bowl campaigns for TEs Alge Crumpler, Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas and Kye Rudolph.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Joe Woods
• Senior Defensive Assistant: Peter Giunta
• Pass Rush Specialist: Brian Young
• DL Coach: Todd Grantham
• LBs Coach: Michael Hodges
• Secondary Coach: Marcus Robertson
• Notable Turnover: co-DC/DL Coach Ryan Nielsen (Falcons), co-DC/Secondary Coach Kris Richard (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Woods is the inheritor of the two-headed DC office shared by Nielsen and Richard last year. An NFL coach since 2004, he was Allen’s DBs coach on the 2014 Raiders and has experience in his new role as the 2017-18 Broncos DC and 2020-22 Browns DC. His units have been marked by year-to-year inconsistency, but twice in five years his defense has been top-five in yards and thrice top-five in passing yards. This is still Allen’s defense, but Wood should be a capable consigliere and implementer of the game plan. 

Giunta has been an NFL coach since 1991 and with the Saints in his current role since 2016. He has won three Super Bowls as the 1998-2000 Rams DC and 2006-14 Giants DBs coach. Young was an NFL DT who played under Giunta (2000-03 Rams) and Allen (2004-08 Saints) before joining the Saints staff after retirement, serving first as an intern (2009-10) and then moving into his pass rush role in 2011. 

Grantham has been a DL/LB-focused coach since 1990, and he has extensive experience as a coordinator (2005-07 Browns, 2010-13 Georgia, 2014-16 Louisville, 2017 Mississippi State, 2018-21 Florida). He’ll replace Nielsen as the DL coach after a season at Alabama as a defensive analyst. Hodges played LB at Texas A&M and then joined their staff after college. Eventually he found his way to Eastern Illinois and had enough success there as the 2014-15 LBs coach and 2016 co-DC/safeties coach to attract the attention of Payton, who quarterbacked there in the 1980s. After three years with the Saints (2017-18 assistant, 2019 assistant LBs coach), Hodges advanced to LBs coach in 2020.

Robertson was a first-team All-Pro safety who played 12 years in the NFL, mainly with the Titans, before joining their staff as director of player development and then moving into coaching. He worked with Allen and Woods on the 2014 Raiders as assistant DBs coach and joins the Saints this year with experience as the top secondary/DBs coach with five different teams (2009-11 Titans, 2013 Lions, 2015-16 Raiders, 2017-18 Broncos, 2019-22 Cardinals). 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• assistant HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Darren Rizzi
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Phil Galiano

Rizzi is a longtime college coach who jumped to the Dolphins in 2010 as an assistant and ascended in 2011 to the coordinator position, which he held until 2019, when the Saints hired him for his current role. The Saints have been top-five in special teams DVOA in three of Rizzi’s four seasons. Galiano worked with Rizzi on the staffs of the 2003-06 Rutgers and 2016 Dolphins teams and joined him on the Saints in 2019 as his assistant.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Derek Carr
• Backups: Jameis Winston, Jake Haener
• Notable Turnover: Andy Dalton (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Derek Carr signed a four-year $150M contract this offseason to join the Saints after spending the first nine years of his career with the Raiders. A cromulent QB, he was No. 21 last year with 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt under HC Josh McDaniels, but in his previous four seasons — with HC Jon Gruden — he had a mark of 7.7 AY/A, which would’ve been good in 2022 for No. 7, tied with Josh Allen. It’s likely that Carr will have a bounceback campaign.

Jameis Winston entered the NFL in 2015 as a Heisman Trophy- and championship-winning No. 1 pick. He has not lived up to the hype. After throwing a league-high 30 interceptions in 2019, he signed with the Saints in 2020 as a potential successor to Brees — but he failed to capitalize on his opportunities in 2021-22. With a 7.3 AY/A over the past three years, he’s a competent backup but not a threat to push Carr for the starting role. Haener is a developmental 24-year-old fourth-round rookie who spent six years in college. One more year and he could’ve been Tommy Callahan’s doctor. 

Projections as of July 6.

Running Backs

• Starter: Alvin Kamara
• Backups: Jamaal Williams, Kendre Miller
• Fullback: Adam Prentice
• Notable Turnover: Mark Ingram (free agent), David Johnson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Alvin Kamara is a three-down, five-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Saints since his 2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. While having 1,300-plus scrimmage yards every year of his career, he has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per target since Brees retired (vs. 5.0 and 6.9 before), and he’s at risk of missing games this year to a suspension stemming from a 2022 battery charge.

Jamaal Williams is a 28-year-old third-contract veteran coming off a career-best 1,139-yard, 17-touchdown season with the Lions. He’s a plodder, but Williams has three-down ability and is an upgrade on the latter-day Ingram and Johnson as a No. 2 back. 

Kendre Miller is a 21-year-old third-round rookie with good size (5-foot-11 and 215 pounds) and college production (1,515 yards, 17 TDs last year as a true junior). Given the fragility of the RB position, Miller could start for the Saints as early as 2024. 

Adam Prentice is a 2021 undrafted free agent with the name of a Nathaniel Hawthorne character. A typical lead blocker, he has touched the ball 13 times in his two years with the Saints.

Projections as of July 6.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed
• WR Backups: Tre'Quan Smith, Bryan Edwards, A.T. Perry
• TE Starter: Juwan Johnson
• TE Backups: Foster Moreau, Taysom Hill
• Borderline: WRs Keke Coutee and James Washington
• Notable Turnover: WRs Jarvis Landry (free agent), Marquez Callaway (Broncos), Deonte Harty (Bills) and Kevin White (free agent), TE Adam Trautman (Broncos)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Chris Olave is a 2022 first-rounder who flashed as a rookie with 1,042 yards receiving and 8.8 yards per target. Blessed with inside/outside versatility, he has All-Pro potential. 

Michael Thomas is a 30-year-old two-time first-team All-Pro who won Offensive Player of the Year with his all-time dominant 2019 campaign (NFL-record 149 receptions)… and then he played just 12 games (including playoffs) in the three following seasons because of ankle and foot injuries. 

When healthy, Thomas is still a strong contributor, but his health can’t be assumed. 

Rashid Shaheed is a 2022 UDFA who earned a starting role in the second half of his rookie year with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. His efficiency will decline in 2023, but he’s an undoubted big-play threat.

Tre'Quan Smith is a 2018 third-rounder with 2,756 snaps played for the Saints over the past half decade and a strong 9.0 yards per target, but he has never had even 500 yards in a season. He’s the definition of a No. 4 WR. 

Bryan Edwards is a 2020 third-rounder who was drafted by the Raiders under the Gruden regime and who connected with Carr in his first two years (10.3 yards per target), but McDaniels viewed him as expendable so he traded him to the Falcons last offseason. Now with the Saints, Edwards can serve as a known-and-trusted depth receiver.

A.T. Perry is a sixth-round rookie with good athleticism (4.47-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 198 pounds) and strong production (152-2,389-26 yards receiving in his two final college seasons). His upside gives him a good chance to stick on the roster, although he and also Edwards will need to earn their spots. Veterans Coutee (8.1 yards per target) and Washington (25 starts) could challenge to make the roster with strong camps.

Juwan Johnson is a 2020 UDFA WR-to-TE convert coming off a career-best 42-508-7 receiving season. Although he’s undersized for the position (6-foot-4 and 230 pounds), he has good athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash) and plays primarily in the slot and out wide. With nine touchdowns on 19 red-zone targets, Johnson’s a legitimate scoring weapon with the potential for more growth at the position. 

Foster Moreau is a 2019 fourth-rounder who played with Carr for four years on the Raiders and has followed him to the Saints. More of a traditional inline player who can do some dirty work, Moreau is still a capable pass catcher (8.4 yards per target) and is an ideal No. 2 TE.

Taysom Hill is a 2017 UDFA who has played 1,725 offensive snaps at QB, RB, FB, TE, and WR for the Saints since his rookie year. A “positionless” player with great athleticism (4.44-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds), he gritted out five years at BYU as a high-effort Tim Tebow-esque QB before switching to TE in the NFL — but he’s a TE only in name.

Really, he’s an all-around offensive weapon who has 317-1,758-23 rushing, 43-465-9 receiving on 60 targets, and 2,265-10-8 passing with a 64.5% completion rate and 7.3 AY/A. He was even the team’s regular kick returner for a stretch in 2018.

He’s unlikely to eat too much into Johnson and Moreau’s workloads as an actual TE, but I expect him to take a small bite of all the position players’ pieces of pie, given his versatility.

Projections as of July 6.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Trevor Penning, LG Andrus Peat, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, RT Ryan Ramczyk
• Backups: T/G James Hurst, OG Calvin Throckmorton, OT Landon Young, G/T Nick Saldiveri
• Borderline: C/G Billy Price, OG Lewis Kidd
• Notable Turnover: G/C Josh Andrews (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Penning is a 2022 first-rounder who missed 11 games last year to a foot injury and made only one start. He was poor in pass protection (two pressures on 31 pass rushes) but a mauler in the run game. Peat is a second-contract veteran whom the Saints bounced between tackle and guard for the first few years of his career before finally settling at LG in 2018, when he was named to the first of his three straight Pro Bowls. But Peat has missed 29 games over the past five years and been dreadful at pass blocking for the past two seasons (20.1 PFF grade in 2021, 40.3 in 2022). 

McCoy is a 2019 second-rounder who has started every game of his career at the pivot and has consistently been an above-average producer in both phases. In four seasons for the Saints, he has allowed just three sacks.

Ruiz is a 2020 first-rounder who entered college as the No. 1 C in his recruitment class and played primarily in the middle at Michigan but has started at RG for the Saints for three years. He’s a sufficient pass blocker yet to have a PFF run-blocking grade of even 60. Ramczyk is a second-contract franchise bookend with one first-team All-Pro, two second-team All-Pros and a PFF blocking page that is entirely green and blue. He does everything well.

Hurst is a 31-year-old all-purpose lineman who has made 80 career starts despite entering the league in 2014 as a UDFA. He has exceptional versatility with his ability to play both tackle and guard spots, and he has had PFF pass-blocking grades above 75 in each season since joining the Saints in 2020.

Given that he has played most of the team’s LT snaps the past two seasons — and played the position at a high level — there’s a non-zero chance that he could beat out Penning for the starting blindside job in camp. Throckmorton is a 2020 UDFA who has played 1,398 snaps for the Saints since 2021, almost all of them at the two guard spots. He has performed terribly (he’s yet to have a PFF grade above 45), but he seems to be the team’s top interior backup.

Young is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has underperformed in spot action with 12 pressures allowed on 140 pass rushes. Saldiveri is a fourth-round rookie who played mostly RT but a little RG in college and is likely to kick inside in the NFL. He has good athleticism (5.21-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 318 pounds), but he isn’t guaranteed a roster spot and could be challenged by Price and Kidd.

Price is a discarded 2018 first-rounder now on his third team in three years. He has been plagued by year-to-year inconsistency throughout his career, but he has 45 career starts and the flexibility to man all three interior spots. Kidd is a 2022 UDFA who played 78 subpar snaps for the Saints last year (29.6 PFF grade), but at least he’s familiar with the offense.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Cameron Jordan, Carl Granderson
• EDGE Backups: Isaiah Foskey, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Payton Turner
• DT Starters: Nathan Shepherd, Bryan Bresee
• DT Backups: Khalen Saunders, Malcolm Roach
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Marcus Davenport (Vikings), DTs David Onyemata (Falcons), Shy Tuttle (Panthers) and Kentavius Street (Eagles)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Jordan is a 34-year-old third-contract veteran who has made eight Pro Bowls since the Saints drafted him in 2011. He is strong against the run and hasn’t had fewer than seven sacks in a season since his rookie year. Granderson is a 2019 UDFA who has steadily played more and played better throughout his four years with the team. Last season he had a career-high 5.5 sacks and 53 tackles and will need to step up even more this year as part of the committee to replace Davenport.

Foskey is a second-round rookie with great athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 264 pounds) and production (20.5 sacks in his final two seasons). Kpassagnon joined the Saints in 2021 after four years with the Chiefs, and the team extended him for another two years this offseason.

He’s an average-at-best pass rusher and mediocre run defender, but he at least has the size (6-foot-7 and 289 pounds) to kick inside if needed. Turner is an overdrafted 2021 first-rounder who has played only 315 snaps in two years. He’s strong against the run but forgettable in the pass rush (three sacks in 209 opportunities).

Shepherd is one of the three offseason additions the Saints hope will be able to replace the lost Onyemata, Tuttle and Street on the defensive interior.

In his five years with the Jets, Shepherd was a poor run defender but positive pass rusher (only one PFF grade below 65). Bresee is a first-round rookie who was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2020 class. He missed time in college because of a torn ACL, a kidney infection and the death of his sister, but when on the field he showed the potential to be a difference-making presence in both phases.

Saunders played alongside Kpassagnon on the 2019-20 Chiefs and reunites with him this season after hitting career highs last year with 511 snaps, 18 QB pressures and 51 tackles for the Chiefs. Even so, Saunders has had a PFF run-blocking or pass-rushing grade of even 60 only once. Roach is a 2020 UDFA and the only holdover from last year’s DT rotation, but his play has been substandard for three straight seasons (zero sacks).

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Demario Davis, Pete Werner
• Backups: Zack Baun, Andrew Dowell, D'Marco Jackson
• Borderline: Anfernee Orji
• Notable Turnover: Kaden Elliss (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Davis joined the Saints in 2018 after six years with the Jets and Browns, and since then he has been an All-Pro in four of five seasons (one-time first-team, three-time second-team). Despite his age (34 years), Davis is still a complete player who can bang in the box, rush off the edge and drop back in coverage. Warner is a 2021 second-rounder who has started 19 games in two years for the Saints and provided league-average play in all three phases.

Baun is a 2020 third-rounder who’s equally bad in run defense and coverage. He is yet to play even 200 snaps in a season and has underperformed his draft status, but he’ll get a shot this year to replace Elliss as the No. 3 LB. At the same time, his roster spot is not guaranteed.

Dowell is a 2019 UDFA who has been an ace special teamer (18 tackles) for the Saints over the past two years. Jackson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who has great athleticism (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 233 pounds) but missed all of last year to injury. With his coverage and special teams ability, he has the edge right now over Orji, who is only a rookie UDFA — but who also got $226,000 in guarantees. Jackson and Orji both might make the roster. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, Bradley Roby
• CB Backups: Alontae Taylor, Isaac Yiadom
• S Starters: Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye
• S Backups: Lonnie Johnson, Johnathan Abram, Jordan Howden, J.T. Gray
• Borderline: CB Ugo Amadi, S Smoke Monday
• Notable Turnover: CB Chris Harris (free agent), FS Justin Evans (Eagles), FS/CB P.J. Williams (free agent), SS Daniel Sorensen (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Lattimore is a second-contract perimeter corner who won the 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year and has been a Pro Bowler in four of his five seasons with eight-plus games for the Saints. He missed 10 contests last year with a lacerated kidney and can be streaky — he gets up for big games and is lackadaisical for lower-tier matchups — but he was still dominant in 2022 with just 5.9 yards per target. A shutdown defender and strong tackler, Lattimore is probably a top-10 CB. Adebo is a 2023 third-rounder who has racked up 29 starts in two years but been abysmal to date (9.3 yards per target, 9 TDs). 

Roby — a 2014 first-rounder — was acquired via trade by the Saints two years ago after a good but not great stretch of seasons with the Broncos and Texans. In 2022, he played primarily in the slot for the first time in his career and performed well (6.7 yards per target, 53.7% completion rate).

Despite his perimeter ability, Roby seems likely to be a slot defender this season — although he and Adebo could both be pushed for playing time by Taylor, a 2022 second-rounder who balled out last year (45.3% completion rate) as an injury fill-in for Lattimore and took practice snaps in the slot at minicamp.

Yiadom as a third-round rookie played with Roby on the 2018 Broncos but is now on his fifth team in five years. He played no defensive snaps for the Saints in 2022, but he contributes on special teams and has corner/safety flexibility, but the journeyman Amadi has similar versatility and is a better cover man. He could edge out Yiadmon.

Mathieu and Maye both joined the Saints last year as the team’s new starting safety duo. Mathieu is a 31-year-old, three-time first-team All-Pro with the flexibility to play both safety spots and slot corner. He has never had a PFF coverage grade below 60.

Maye is a second-contract safety who’s best in centerfield, but he supports in run defense and has been a robust cover man throughout his career.

Johnson played with Roby on the 2019-20 Texans for the first two years of his career, starting out at perimeter corner and then moving to free safety. He’s inconsistent in coverage (9.9 yards per target for career) and terrible against the run, and he played only 165 snaps with the Titans last year, but his versatility could get him a roster spot.

Abram is an abandoned 2019 first-rounder who played for three teams last year. He has never fulfilled the promise of his draft capital, but he has lots of experience (36 starts) and is a decent reclamation addition. 

Howden is a fifth-round rookie with good athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 203 pounds) and experience (49 starts). He has the size and savvy to play both safety spots. Gray is a 2018 UDFA who has piled up 44 special teams tackles for the Saints over the past four years. 

Because of the lack of quality depth behind the starters, both Howden and Gray could make the team, although they could be pushed by Monday, a four-star 2022 UDFA who missed his rookie year to an ACL tear but was an old-school body-crushing safety at Auburn (he was almost ejected for targeting in his first college start and was ejected in his final game).

Specialists

• Kicker: Wil Lutz
• Punter: Blake Gillikin
• Holder: Blake Gillikin
• Long Snapper: Zach Wood
• Kick Returner: Rashid Shaheed
• Punt Returner: Rashid Shaheed
• Borderline: K Blake Grupe, P Lou Hedley

Lutz is coming off the worst year of his career (74.2% conversion rate) after missing 2021 with an injury, but he has been kicking for the Saints since his 2016 rookie season and has solid career marks (84.6% field goal rate, 58.6% from 50-plus yards). I doubt the 2019 Pro Bowler will lose his spot to rookie UDFA Grupe, who hit only 74.3% of his kicks in college.

GIllikin is a 2020 UDFA who missed his rookie year to injury but has been punting for the Saints since 2021. He doesn’t have outstanding distance (47.0 yards per punt for career), but last year he was No. 11 with 41.6% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. He should be able to hold off rookie UDFA Hedley, who averaged 45.2 yards per punt in college.

Wood was a college EDGE who transitioned to LS after going undrafted in 2016. He caught on with the Saints in 2017 and has been long-snapping for them since. Of all the guys in the world named “Zach Wood,” he’s probably the best at pushing a ball between his legs with accuracy and velocity. Shaheed was sufficient last year as a return man (9.7 yards per punt return, 22.9 yards per kick return) and could improve in his second season: At Weber State, he set the all-time FCS record for kick return touchdowns with seven.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Saints’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 1
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 2-8
• Opponents: at CAR, at GB, vs. TB, at NE, at HOU, vs. JAX, at IND

The Saints have the league’s easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They play in the weak NFC South, and they have interdivisional matchups with the soft-ish NFC North and AFC South. They don’t have a single game against a team with a higher win total in the market.

But it’s not as if they have an unimpeded path to the playoffs: They’re one of just five teams this year with a five-of-seven away stretch. That’s tough… but it also might be manageable — and if they can get through it relatively unscathed then they could be in position to compete for one of the top seeds in the NFC.

After hosting the Titans in Week 1, they kick off their key stretch with back-to-back road games: at Panthers on Monday Night Football and at Packers. Divisional games can be tough, and Lambeau Field is a difficult place to play — but early-season matchups against two new starting QBs (Bryce Young, Jordan Love) are very winnable. 

In Week 4, the Saints return home to host the divisional Buccaneers, who have an undesirable QB situation (Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask). After that, the Saints have another back-to-back set of games: at Patriots and at Texans. For the Patriots, QB Mac Jones is on his third straight OC.

For the Texans, rookie QB C.J. Stroud will be in his sixth NFL game. The Saints have a tough matchup in Week 7 against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football — but that game is at home and currently a pick ’em. And then in Week 8 they’re on the road again, but they get yet another rookie QB in Anthony Richardson for the Colts.

Regardless of opponents, any five-of-seven away stretch is likely to induce “unforeseen” losses, but all seven of these games are eminently winnable. If the Saints can go at least 5-2 in Weeks 2-8, then — I almost hate to say it — they could have a real shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, given how forgiving their overall schedule is.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Saints.

• Allen oversees a defense that regresses slightly because of coaching turnover, personnel defections and underperformance.
• Carmichael is slow to adjust the offense to Carr, so the offense finishes outside the top 20 in scoring for the second year in a row.
• Carr struggles in his new surroundings — new city, new team, new coaches, new offense — and is de facto benched for the final two games of the season with an injury that he could probably play through if the team wanted/needed him to.
• Kamara misses the beginning of the season to suspension and continues to decline upon his return while Williams plods inefficiently and Miller wallows on the sideline.
• Olave faces constant defensive attention because Thomas suffers a season-ending injury in Week 5, and Shaheed is proven to be nothing more than an empty sprinter.
• Johnson comes down from his 2022 highs, and Hill plays way too much as the team tries to use him as an offensive jump starter.
• Penning and Peat are disastrous, which results in Carr experiencing a seemingly never-ending onslaught of blindside pressure, which eventually causes his end-of-season injury, which leads to his “shadow benching” in Weeks 17-18.
• Granderson and Foskey cannot compensate for the departure of Davenport.
• Shepherd, Bresee and Saunders allow the Saints to be gashed regularly on interior runs, which makes it hard for the defense to get stops.
• Davis publicly calls out the line for its lack of toughness, causing a major rift within the defense.
• Lattimore loses focus as the season slips aways, and Adebo gets beat for multiple long plays throughout the season when matched up in one-on-one coverage.
• Mathieu moves to slot corner in the second half of the year so  he can be closer to the line of scrimmage to help in run defense, but then the team’s lack of quality safety depth is exposed.
• Grupe beats Lutz in training camp and then has a league-worst conversion rate before the team cuts him in Week 9.
• Falcons go 6-11, fire Allen and hire HC Jon Gruden.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Saints.

• Allen sees his defense return to the top five in scoring.
• Carmichael does his best Payton impersonation now that he has a starter-caliber QB.
• Carr has the most efficient passing season of his career.
• Kamara has another 1,300-yard season, Williams leads the league in rushing touchdowns for a second year in a row and Miller rotates in as an explosive change-of-pace playmaker.
• Olave makes his first Pro Bowl, Thomas stays healthy and Shaheed continues to punish defenses with his downfield ability. 
• Johnson becomes Carr’s new “Waller lite,” and Hill touches the ball only a few times a game.
• Penning moves to LG in training camp to make room at LT for Hurst, and Peat drops to the second unit. 
• Granderson and Foskey combine to replace Davenport — and then some.
• Shepherd, Bresee and Saunders do just enough against the run to ensure that the defense isn’t totally exploitable.
• Davis tells the media after Week 10 that the Saints are a Super Bowl team.
• Lattimore has another Pro Bowl campaign, and Adebo develops into a league-average corner.
• Mathieu earns his fourth first-team All-Pro.
• Lutz keeps the K job and converts over 90% of his attempts.
• Saints go 15-2, earn the No. 1 seed and beat the Lions in the Divisional Round and Cowboys in the NFC Championship before losing by 11 points in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs in a game that’s not nearly as close as the final score.

In-season angles

I view the Saints as a slight “bet on” team — but if I were to bet against them I would almost certainly do it when they are favored.

• Allen as Favorite: 4-8 ATS (30.1% ROI for faders)
• Carr as Favorite: 17-29-1 ATS (21.6% ROI for faders)

They will have my attention in the season opener against the Titans.

• Carr in Week 1: 6-3 ATS (32.6% ROI)
• Titans HC Mike Vrabel in Week 1: 1-4 ATS (56.4% ROI for faders)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking at the season-long player prop market.

Chris Olave Under 5.5 Touchdowns Receiving (-120, DraftKings) 

This line is 4.5 at Caesars, so I like the line-shopping value I’m getting at DraftKings at 5.5.

Additionally, I have this projected at 4.9, so I see inherent value on the under.

I don’t think Olave will have a bad season. In fact, I actually like the over on his receiving yardage prop of 1,000.5 at DraftKings. I expect Olave to improve upon his 1,042 yards from last year.

But that doesn’t mean he’ll score touchdowns. He’ll be competing for red- and end-zone targets with WR Michael Thomas and TE Juwan Johnson, both of whom have proven themselves to be capable scorers in the NFL.

And I expect the Saints to run the ball as they get closer to the goal line, which means that Olave could lose out on scoring opportunities to RB Jamaal Williams and TE Taysom Hill, who are certified goal-line vultures.

I like Olave and expect him to impress this season — just not as a touchdown producer.

You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account. Simply sign up below and start betting today!