2023 New York Giants Betting Preview

Last year, the New York Giants improved to 9-7-1 from 4-13 in the first year under HC Brian Daboll, who won AP Coach of the Year, and it wasn’t just a “positive regression” type of change that we saw from the Giants: It was actual progress.

The team jumped from a point differential of -158 to -6 on the way to its first winning season since 2016. 

With nine wins, the Giants snuck into the playoffs — and then went on the road as underdogs to beat the 13-win Vikings in the Wild Card Round before inevitably suffering a 38-7 blowout loss to the Eagles the next week.

Despite how the season ended, the Giants had an incredibly successful campaign. This year, the Giants hope not to lose ground. And if they can make headway by winning more games or somehow advancing even further in the playoffs, then Daboll will have pulled off one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds in recent memory.

In this 2023 Giants preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Giants preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 29. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 29. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 29.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of July 29.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 29.

General Manager and Head Coach

• Senior VP/General Manager: Joe Schoen
• Head Coach: Brian Daboll
• Team Power Rating: +0
• Team Power Ranking: No. 16
• Coach Ranking: No. 14

Schoen left Buffalo for New York last offseason to clean up the 19-46 mess left behind from “retired” former GM Dave Gettleman’s meme-filled tenure. Given the team’s success last year, Schoen’s time with the Giants is off to a good start.

His strength is player evaluation, which is unsurprising given that he’s a scout by trade. After playing at DePauw (QB, WR), Schoen joined the Panthers in 2001 as a scouting assistant and then worked alongside future Bills GM Brandon Beane (then in the Panthers personnel department) as an area scout for six years (2002-07).

Following his time in Carolina, he stepped up to national scout with the Dolphins (2008-12) — briefly crossing paths with Daboll, who was the 2011 OC — and from there he advanced to assistant director of college scouting (2013) and director of player personnel (2014-16) before reuniting with Beane (GM) in 2017 and Daboll (OC) in 2018 as the assistant GM for the Bills.

It’s impossible to know how much credit Schoen deserves for the success in Buffalo, but he has done more than enough in his brief time in New York to earn plenty of credit. He has shrewdly maneuvered the contract situations of QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquon Barkley. He has selected promising players (some of whom have already started to contribute) in the first four rounds of his two drafts with the team.

He has cheaply added veterans via free agency (WRs Isaiah Hodgins and Parris Campbell) and the trade market (TE Darren Waller). And (rightly or wrongly) he traded away WR Kadarius Toney last year while he could still get a third-rounder for him — and I’m skeptical Toney could fetch such a pick now.

And, most importantly, Schoen hired Daboll. In truth, they were likely brought in as a package deal. When Schoen was announced as the Giants' GM, it was almost fait accompli that Daboll would be the Giants' HC — and, sure enough, a week later, he was. But Schoen still gets credit for carrying the ball across the goal line, because Daboll has been a fantastic hire.

Compare him to his predecessor, Joe Judge, who “guided” the team to a 10-23 record as the 2020-21 HC. Both Daboll and Judge have worked with HCs Bill Belichick and Nick Saban. Before becoming Giants HC, Daboll was a 1998-99 Michigan State graduate assistant, 2000-01 Patriots defensive assistant, 2002-06 Patriots WRs coach, 2013-16 Patriots TEs coach and 2017 Alabama OC/QBs coach.

For Judge, he was a 2009-11 Alabama ST assistant, 2012-14 Patriots ST assistant, 2015-18 Patriots ST coordinator and 2019 Patriots ST coordinator/WRs coach before joining the Giants.

They’re both from the same intertwined coaching tree, and they both have Belichick-ian and Saban-esque aspects to how they approach the game, but the results and manifestation are utterly different. Whereas Judge was controlling in New York, Daboll has been meticulous.

Those two qualities are similar — but sufficiently different. Whereas Judge’s game plans were stupidly simple, Daboll’s have been sophisticatedly simple.

Think of the best qualities of Belichick and Saban.

• The ability to view the game holistically: Daboll played safety in college and started as a defensive coach before switching to offense.
• The ability to link the macro and the micro: Daboll was an economics major in college.
• The ability to adapt and learn from other coaches: Daboll — when not with Belichick and Saban — productively worked under 2007-08 Jets and 2009-10 Browns HC Eric Mangini (QBs coach, OC), 2007-08 Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer (QBs coach), 2011 Dolphins HC Tony Sparano (OC), 2012 Chiefs HC Romeo Crennel (OC) and 2018-21 Bills HC Sean McDermott (OC). 

Daboll has all those qualities. I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say that of all the NFL HCs to be branches in the Belichick and Saban trees, Daboll might end up bearing the most fruit.

With the Bills, he developed QB Josh Allen. With the Giants last year, he effectively managed and game-planned around Jones. In Buffalo, Daboll took an offense that was No. 30 in scoring in Allen’s first season and made it Nos. 2 and 3 in his final two seasons before he left for New York, where he took an offense that was No. 31 in each of the two previous years and made it No. 15 in his first season with the team.

There’s no guarantee that the Giants will see their win-loss record improve in 2023, but everything we’ve seen out of Daboll suggests that he’s the right person to be their coach for the long term.

Brian Daboll coaching record

• Years: 1
• Playoffs: 1
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 1-0
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +2
• Regular Season: 9-7-1 (.559)
• Playoff Record: 1-1 (.500)
• Against the Spread: 14-5 ATS (41.4% ROI)
• Moneyline: 10-8-1 (33.0% ROI)
• Over/Under: 8-10-1 (6.6% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Mike Kafka
• Offensive Playcaller: Mike Kafka
• OL Coach: Bobby Johnson
• QBs Coach: Shea Tierney
• RBs Coach: Jeff Nixon
• WRs Coach: Mike Groh
• TEs Coach: Andy Bischoff
• Notable Turnover: RBs Coach DeAndre Smith (Colts)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Kafka was an inspired hire by Daboll, who has fully empowered the OC to oversee and shape the offense. Whereas many offensive-rooted HCs opt to retain playcalling duties, Daboll — a first-time HC — wisely decided last year to bestow that power onto his OC so that he could be free to focus all his attention on his own HC responsibilities. And in his first foray as a playcaller, Kafka turned a previously inept unit into a methodical strike force.

A brainy journeyman QB who entered the league in 2010 as a fourth-rounder for HC Andy Reid’s Eagles, Kafka never started a game in the NFL and was little more than a depth player for most of his seven teams (2010-12 Eagles, 2013 Patriots and Jaguars, 2014 Buccaneers, 2015 Vikings, Titans and Bengals).

He made the most of his playing career by gaining exposure to several offensive systems and impressing Reid with his acumen, so after he retired and did a year at Northwestern as a graduate assistant (2016), Reid hired him for his Chiefs staff as a quality control coach (2017), quickly promoted him to QBs coach (2018-21) and then eventually added the title of passing game coordinator (2020-21) to his job description.

Dec 4, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) leaps into the end zone for a touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Given the success Kafka had with QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs passing attack, he was a desirable candidate for the Giants OC job, and it likely didn’t hurt that Daboll and Kafka were briefly together on the 2013 Patriots. Most of Kafka’s staff returns for 2023, and it’s somewhat surprising he’s back with the Giants after interviewing with the Panthers, Texans, Colts and Cardinals for their HC jobs this offseason. In 2024, I doubt he’ll be with the team.

Johnson has been an OL/TEs coach since 1999 and in the NFL since 2010. He worked with Daboll as the OL coach on the 2019-21 Bills and joined him last year on the Giants in the same role. 

Tierney got his NFL start as an analyst and coaching intern under HC Chip Kelly on the 2013-15 Eagles, and then he did a two-year stint as an offensive analyst at Alabama, where he met Daboll and whence he followed him to the Bills, where he worked as an offensive analyst (2018-19) and then assistant QBs coach (2020-21) before joining him in New York last year as the QBs coach.

Nixon is a natural RBs replacement for Smith: He was an offensive/special teams assistant on the 2010 Eagles in Kafka’s rookie season, and then the next year he was the RBs coach under Daboll on the 2011 Dolphins.

Before joining the Giants this offseason, he was most recently RB Christian McCaffrey’s position coach with the Panthers (2020 RBs coach, 2021 RBs coach and interim OC, 2022 assistant HC and unofficial RBs coach).

Groh had some second- and third-degree Daboll and Kafka connections before joining the 2022 Giants as the WRs coach. After working for his father (HC Al Groh) for nine years (2000 Jets, 2001-08 Virginia), he worked for Saban for three seasons at Alabama (2009 graduate assistant, 2011-12 WRs coach) and then eventually was the WRs coach for the 2015 Bears under then-OC Adam Gase (who got his coaching start under Saban at LSU in 2000-02).

After that, he was the WRs coach (2017) and then OC (2018-19) for the Eagles under HC Doug Pederson, who worked on Reid’s Eagles (2010 quality control coach, 2011-12 QBs coach) when Kafka was a player. Eventually, Groh was likely to work with Daboll and Kafka.

Bischoff had no prior connection to Daboll and Kafka before joining the Giants in his current role — but he did work with Groh on the 2013-14 Bears as the TEs coach on HC Marc Trestman’s staff after serving as Trestman’s RBs coach in the CFL on the championship-winning 2008-12 Alouettes.

After his time in Chicago, Bischoff did six years with the Ravens (2015 quality control, 2016-17 assistant, 2018-20 assistant TEs coach) and one year with the Texans (2021 TEs coach) before reuniting with Groh as a pass-catching coaching duo.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Don Martindale
• DL Coach: Andre Patterson
• Outside LBs Coach: Drew Wilkins
• Inside LBs Coach: John Egorugwu
• DBs Coach: Jerome Henderson
• Safeties Coach: Michael Treier
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Martindale (“Wink” to those in the know) is a human sledgehammer as a coordinator: He’s good for basically just one thing and is utterly lacking in nuance — but if you give him some defensive muscle he’ll tear down your opponent’s offensive house. A college DC/LBs coach, Martindale made the jump to the NFL in 2004 with the Raiders, where he was the LBs coach under DC Rob Ryan for five years.

That alone probably tells you all you need to know. (By the way, Daboll worked with Ryan on the 2000-03 Patriots (LBs coach( and again on the 2009-10 Browns (DC), so Daboll has a strong sense of what he’s getting with Martindale’s scheme.)

With strong players, Martindale’s “let’s line up and play” man defense — supercharged with heavy-pressure packages — is more than capable of maximizing his unit’s potential. As the 2018-20 Ravens DC, he oversaw a unit that was top-three in scoring each year.

But when injuries thinned out the talent at his disposal in 2021 and he frustratingly failed to adapt his scheme, the Ravens defense dropped to No. 19 and the team opted not to renew his contract, which is why he was available for the Giants DC job. 

With middling defensive talent last year, the Giants had league-average results (No. 17 in scoring). That was an improvement on the team’s 2021 defensive performance (No. 23), but it highlights the double-edged feature that distinguishes Martindale’s scheme: He lets his players play. If they’re great, then their abilities allow them to dominate within the system. But if they’re less than very good, then the system doesn’t do much to help them. In fact, it exposes their vulnerabilities.

And that’s how you get a 2010 Broncos defense that went from Nos. 7 and 12 in yards and points the year prior to No. 32 in both in Martindale’s first season as an NFL DC. 

That performance was so bad that Martindale had to take the next year off before returning to the league in 2012 as the Ravens LBs coach — and he maybe wouldn’t have gotten that job if he hadn’t have worked with HC John Harbaugh on the 1996 University of Cincinnati staff, where he was a special teams/LBs coach and Harbaugh was the ST coordinator. (It also probably didn’t hurt that Martindale had worked for HC Jack Harbaugh — John’s father — as the 2000-02 Western Kentucky DC/LBs coach.) And it took Martindale six years to work his way back up from LBs coach to DC.

Over the past 18 months, the Giants have done their best to rebuild the defense, and they now have some legitimate playmakers on that side of the ball. But they still might not have enough of them spread throughout the unit to make Martindale’s scheme optimal. It at least helps that he returns his entire defensive staff.

Patterson has been coaching football nonstop since 1982. A high school and college coach for the first 15 years of his career, he jumped to the NFL in 1997 and spent a decade in the NFL as a DL coach (1997 Patriots, 1998-99 Vikings, 2000-02 Cowboys, 2003-04 Browns, 2005-06 Broncos) before dropping back to the HS/CFB ranks, where he’d stay before returning to the Vikings in 2014.

In Minnesota, Patterson oversaw routinely strong units as the DL coach and had the title of co-DC and then assistant HC/co-DC added to his job description in 2020 and 2021. He was a great addition to the Giants staff in 2022.

Wilkins is Martindale’s guy. He joined the Ravens in 2010 and worked his way up from video operations intern (2010-11) to outside LBs coach (2020-21) in a decade. He knows Wink’s system better than anyone.

Egorugwu is a beautiful bridge between Martindale and Daboll. He jumped from the college game to the NFL with the Ravens, where he was a defensive assistant in 2015-16 — and then he worked on the Bills for four years as a quality control coach (2017) and assistant LBs coach (2018-20). After a one-year sojourn at Vanderbilt as the LBs coach, he reunited with Wink and Daboll in 2022.

Henderson was an eight-year NFL CB (1991-1998) who has been coaching DBs in the league for the past 16 seasons. He opened his coaching career working on the 2007-08 Jets and 2009-10 Browns with Daboll and joined the Giants in 2020 as the DBs coach. When Daboll was named HC, it was easy for him to retain Henderson.

Treier is getting a promotion to safeties coach this year after serving as a quality control coach in 2020 and assistant DBs coach in 2021-22. Prior to joining the Giants, Treier spent nine years in the college ranks.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Thomas McGaughey
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Mike Adams
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Stephen Thomas
• Notable Turnover: assistant ST Coach Anthony Blevins (XFL Vipers)

McGaughey has coached special teams every year since 2001 and has been with the Giants since 2018. Now on his fourth gig as an NFL coordinator (2014 Jets, 2015 49ers, 2016-17 Panthers, 2018-23 Giants), he has seen a unit that was No. 2 in special teams DVOA the year before he arrived steadily drop to No. 22 last season. 

Adams entered the league as an undrafted safety and then racked up 16 seasons of NFL service and two Pro Bowls (2014-15) before retiring in 2020. He joins the Giants this year after working as an assistant DBs coach for the 2021 Bears. As a player, he was on the 2009-10 Browns with Daboll and the 2017 Panthers with McGaughey. 

Thomas is another offseason addition. For the past four seasons he has been a defensive quality control coach for the Lions, but he has special teams experience as the 2017-18 Princeton coordinator.  

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Daniel Jones
• Backups: Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito
• Notable Turnover: QB Davis Webb (Retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Daniel Jones is a 2019 first-rounder who was plagued by turnovers in his first three years (29 interceptions, 28 fumbles lost in 37 games) but locked it up in 2022 with a league-best 1.1% interception rate and career-low four fumbles lost in 16 games.

He’s not at all a high-volume thrower, and last year he had just 200.3 yards passing per game — but he also had career-best efficiency with a 67.2% completion rate and 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt. And as a runner he low-key balled out with 120-708-7 rushing. Jones is unlikely ever to hit a Josh Allen-like ceiling, but he might be developing into a franchise QB with a respectably elevated and sturdy floor. This offseason, he signed a four-year $160M contract extension with $92M guaranteed. For the foreseeable future, he’s the man in New York.

Tyrod Taylor is a 34-year-old journeyman with 53 starts and one Pro Bowl on his record. With career marks of 7.0 AY/A and 5.7 yards per carry, he’s a competent dual-threat backup who should have full clipboard mastery of Daboll’s system in his second year with the Giants.

Tommy DeVito is a 25-year-old undrafted rookie. He’s not the Joe Pesci character from Goodfellas or the musician who founded the Four Seasons. unfortunately. 

Projections as of July 29.

Running Backs

• Starter: Saquon Barkley
• Backups: Matt Breida, Eric Gray, Gary Brightwell
• Borderline: FB Chris Myarick
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Saquon Barkley is a 26-year-old two-time Pro Bowl generational-ish talent who went No. 2 overall in 2018, won Offensive Rookie of the Year with a league-high 2,028 scrimmage yards, “regressed” to 1,441 yards in 2019, missed most of 2020 with an ACL tear, struggled through most of 2021 with a high-ankle sprain and then bounced back in 2022 with 1,650 yards and 10 touchdowns in 16 games.

He was a threat to hold out because of his contract situation, but the team pacified him with a signing bonus and extra incentives. With his size (6-foot-0 and 233 pounds), speed (4.40-second 40-yard dash) and three-down skill set, Barkley is still one of the league’s best backs.

Matt Breida is a 28-year-old journeyman who has been with Daboll for the past two seasons (2021 Bills, 2022 Giants). He is undersized (5-foot-10 and 190 pounds) but has good speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) and is efficient with his opportunities (4.8 yards per carry, 6.4 yards per target for career).

If Barkley were to suffer an injury, Breida would have little chance of stepping up as a lead back (despite the 2,463 scrimmage yards he amassed in his first three NFL seasons), but he’s a capable change-of-pace option.

Eric Gray is a four-star, fifth-round rookie with decent size (5-foot-10 and 210 pounds), production (1,595 yards, 11 TDs in 12 games in final year) and pass-catching ability (99-827-5 receiving in four seasons). Given that the team selected him in the first place, I expect him to play ahead of Brightwell, a 2021 sixth-rounder with just 190 scrimmage yards in two seasons.

Despite being the team’s primary kick returner last year, Gary Brightwell is no guarantee to hold off Myarick, a 27-year-old TE-to-FB “convert” who played 301 offensive snaps last year — but just 28 lined up in the backfield.

Projections as of July 29.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell
• WR Backups: Jalin Hyatt, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder
• TE Starter: Darren Waller
• TE Backups: Daniel Bellinger, Lawrence Cager
• Injured: WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee)
• Borderline: WRs Cole Beasley and Collin Johnson, TE Tommy Sweeney
• Notable Turnover: WRs Kadarius Toney (Chiefs), Richie James (Chiefs), Kenny Golladay (free agent) and Marcus Johnson (free agent), TEs Tanner Hudson (Bengals) and Nick Vannett (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Isaiah Hodgins is a 24-year-old Bills transplant who flashed in college (86-1,171-13 receiving in final season) but disappointed at the combine (4.61-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds), fell to Round 6 of the 2020 draft, missed his rookie year to a shoulder injury, dressed for just one game in 2021 and then was cut by the Bills in 2022, at which point the Giants picked him up and watched him put up a respectable 42-459-5 receiving with a two-point conversion on 53 targets in 10 games (including playoffs).

Given his familiarity with Daboll’s offense and the fact that he’s one of the few perimeter receivers with NFL experience on the team, he’s likely to get significant playing time in 2023.

Darius Slayton is a 2019 fifth-rounder with 700-plus yards receiving in three of four seasons… but the team never seems enthusiastic to give him opportunities. Even so, he should see regular snaps — at least early in the year — because of his perimeter utility and the team’s injury situation at the position.

Parris Campbell is a 2019 second-rounder who missed most of his first three seasons with injuries (just 15 games played), but he stayed healthy last year and had a career-best season for the Colts with 63-623-3 receiving on 91 targets. He could man the slot while Wan'Dale Robinson is out.

Jalin Hyatt is a four-star All-American, Biletnikoff Award-winning third-round rookie who dominated last year (67-1,267-15 receiving), but he might be limited to the slot because of his size (6-foot and 176 pounds), and his speed (4.40-second 40-yard dash) — while good — isn’t elite for his physical makeup.

Sterling Shepard is a 30-year-old veteran who has played his entire career with the Giants. While he’s stereotyped as a slot-only player, he has some inside/outside ability and put up 600 scrimmage yards in each of his first five campaigns — but he has missed most of the past two seasons and has suffered season-ending injuries (2021 Achilles, 2022 ACL) in back-to-back years.

Jamison Crowder is a 30-year-old slot man who signed with the Giants this offseason after eight years with the Redskins (2015-18), Jets (2019-21) and Bills (2022). He has slowed down over the past two seasons (6.0 yards per target vs. 7.7 in first six seasons), but I give him the edge over Beasley — a 34-year-old slot man — because he’s younger and more functional as a return man.

That said, Cole Beasley could beat him out, given his overall familiarity with Daboll and production on the 2019-21 Bills (231-2,438-11 receiving on 325 targets). And maybe both guys could make the Week 1 roster, because I project Robinson to be out to start the year.

Collin Johnson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who had just 105 yards in 2021 after the Giants picked him up off waivers and then missed 2022 with an Achilles injury — but he has the prototypical size (6-foot-6 and 220 pounds) to line up outside. The Giants might keep him on the roster if they want another perimeter receiver.

Robinson is a 2020 second-rounder who missed most of his rookie year because of knee injuries suffered in Weeks 1 and 11, the second of which was a season-ending ACL tear. He’s small (5-foot-8 and 178 pounds) and slow for his size (4.44-second 40-yard dash), but Robinson exhibited a Wes Welker-like skill set in college, starting out as an RB/WR hybrid with 91-914-3 receiving and 134-580-4 rushing in his first two seasons and then fully transitioning to WR in his third year and dominating with 104-1,334-7 receiving in 13 games.

He might be slow to return from his injury given when he suffered it, but he has long-term potential.

Darren Waller joins the Giants via trade this offseason after eight years with the Ravens (2015-17) and Raiders (2018-22), who unlocked his potential by converting him from WR. Because he has TE size (6-foot-6 and 245 pounds) and WR athleticism (4.46-second 40-yard dash), Waller can line up inline, in the slot and out wide, where the Giants might be tempted to use him more in the manner of a traditional WR, given their paucity of perimeter options.

He has slowed down over the past two seasons (7.7 yards per target vs. 8.7 previously) and missed 14 games to injury in that span, but in 2019-20 he was borderline unstoppable with 197-2,341-12 receiving on 262 targets. He offers little as a run blocker but could be the team’s true No. 1 pass catcher. 

Daniel Bellinger is a 2022 fourth-rounder who plays mainly inline but has the athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash, 7.05-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 253 pounds) to flex into the slot and out wide. He’s an average run blocker (63.3 PFF grade) and decent receiver (7.7 yards per target).

Lawrence Cager is a 2020 UDFA who — like Waller — saw little action for the first two years of his career as a WR, so he transitioned to TE last season and played 242 snaps for the Giants after they picked him up midseason. With his size (6-foot-5 and 220 pounds), he’s a negative as a blocker, and he still underwhelms as a receiver (6.1 yards per target). To make the roster he’ll need to hold off Sweeney, a 2019 seventh-rounder who spent the past four years with the Bills, knows Daboll’s system and has more of a typical No. 3 TE skill set.

Projections as of July 29.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Andrew Thomas, LG Ben Bredeson, C John Michael Schmitz, RG Mark Glowinski, RT Evan Neal
• Backups: T/G Tyre Phillips, OG Joshua Ezeudu, OT Matt Peart, G/C Jack Anderson
• Borderline: OGs Shane Lemieux and Marcus McKethan, C/G J.C. Hassenauer
• Notable Turnover: C Jon Feliciano (49ers), C/G Nick Gates (Commanders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Thomas is a 2020 first-rounder who made second-team All-Pro last year. He’s a near-elite pass protector (six sacks allowed since 2021) and improving run blocker (81.0 PFF grade in 2022). Bredeson is a 2020 fourth-rounder whom the Giants acquired from the Ravens via trade right before the 2021 season.

While he began 2022 as a starter, he missed half the year to injury, rotated in for the second half of the season and has never had a PFF grade higher than 57.5. He could lose his starting spot in the preseason. Schmitz is a 24-year-old second-round rookie who made 35 starts at the pivot in college. He’s more of a zone vs. power run blocker, and he’s unexceptional as a pass blocker.

Glowinski is a 31-year-old, third-contract veteran who joined the Giants last season after seven years with the Seahawks (2015-17) and Colts (2018-21). With 90 career starts, he’s an average-at-worst run blocker and average-at-best pass blocker. Neal is a 2022 first-rounder who is full of promise but had a brutal rookie year (41.8 PFF grade).

Phillips is a 2020 third-rounder released last preseason by the Ravens and claimed by the Giants. He’s a subpar blocker, but he has 18 starts in three seasons and the flexibility to play every position except C.

Ezeudu is a 2022 third-rounder who disappointed last year with a 46.0 PFF grade on 289 backup snaps at LG. Peart is a 2020 third-rounder who can play both tackle spots and is decent at run blocking (PFF grade of at least 62.5 each season) but terrible at pass protecting (31 pressures on 404 opportunities).

Anderson is a four-star 2021 seventh-rounder drafted by the Bills, who lost him to the Eagles from their practice squad in his rookie year. After the Eagles in turn cut him at the end of the 2022 preseason, the Giants claimed him and reunited him with Daboll.

He has the flexibility to play all three interior spots, but he was poor last year (47.9 PFF grade) and will need to hold off Lemieux, McKethan and Hassenauer.

Lemieux is a 2020 fifth-rounder who made nine LG starts as a rookie, but he was dreadful (32.2 PFF grade), and then he missed most of 2021-22 with knee and toe injuries. McKethan is a 2022 fifth-rounder who redshirted his rookie season because of an ACL tear. Hassenauer is a 2018 UDFA who has seven starts for the Steelers over the past three years and is respectable as a blocker, but he’s on a one-year deal with no guaranteed money.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Azeez Ojulari
• EDGE Backups: Oshane Ximines, Jihad Ward, Tomon Fox
• DT Starters: Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams
• DT Backups: A'Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Ryder Anderson
• Borderline: NT Jordon Riley, DT D.J. Davidson
• Notable Turnover: DTs Nick Williams (Chargers), Henry Mondeaux (Jaguars) and Justin Ellis (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Thibodeaux is a 2022 first-rounder who had a solid across-the-board campaign (72.5 grade), but the team will need him to progress in his second season. Ojulari is a 2021 second-rounder who had eight sacks as a rookie and 5.5 sacks in just seven games last year, but he’s a run-game liability.

Ximines is a 2019 third-rounder with just 50 pressures in four seasons. Ward is a 29-year-old journeyman who played a career-high 740 snaps last year in his first season with the Giants. He also had a career-worst 42.1 PFF grade. Fox is a 2022 UDFA who had one sack on 141 pass rushes as a rookie.

Lawrence is a 2019 first-rounder who moved from the B gap to the A gap last year and consequently had the best season of his career (Pro Bowl, second-team All-Pro). That the previous coaching staff wasn’t using him at nose, to begin with, was outrageous, given his size (6-foot-4 and 342 pounds). A strong run defender who pitched in with 7.5 sacks last year, Lawrence deserves every penny of his four-year $87.5M extension.

Williams is a 29-year-old veteran who has been with the Giants since they acquired him from the Jets in the middle of the 2019 season. He hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2016, and he had just 2.5 sacks in 2022, but he had 18 sacks in 2020-21 and has never had a PFF run defense grade below 65.

Robinson joins the Giants after seven years with the Lions (2016-19) and Rams (2020-22) and is a good replacement for the depth DTs lost this offseason. He missed the second half of last year with a torn meniscus and has only two sacks over the past three seasons, but he isn’t expected to miss much (if any) of the year, and his run defense (68.7 PFF grade last year, 78.3 the year prior) counterbalances his pass rush inadequacies.

Nunez-Roches signed a three-year deal with the Giants this offseason with almost $7.5M guaranteed after spending the first eight years of his career with the Chiefs (2015-17) and Buccaneers (2018-22). He can line up comfortably in either interior gap, but he’s an average-at-best run defender and blend-in pass rusher.

Anderson is a 2022 UDFA who had a 40.7 PFF grade on 193 snaps as a rookie. To make the roster he’ll likely need to hold off Riley (seventh-round rookie nose) and Davidson (2022 fifth-rounder recovering from a torn ACL).

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Bobby Okereke, Micah McFadden
• Backups: Darrian Beavers, Carter Coughlin, Cam Brown
• Injured: Jarrad Davis (IR, knee)
• Notable Turnover: Jaylon Smith (free agent) and Tae Crowder (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Okereke joins the Giants after four years with the Colts. He’s good as a run defender (283 tackles since 2021), acceptable as a pass defender and forgettable as a pass rusher. McFadden is a 2022 fifth-rounder who’s dreadful in run defense (51.4 PFF grade) and abysmal in coverage (10.0 yards per target).

The season-ending OTAs injury to Davis will likely force McFadden into a starting role, although he’ll probably face competition from Beavers, a 2022 sixth-rounder who missed all of his rookie year to a preseason ACL tear but had 102 tackles as a Butkus Award finalist in his senior year.

Coughlin is a 2020 seventh-rounder with an orange-and-red PFF defense page, but he had a team-high 439 snaps and nine tackles on special teams in 2022. Brown is a 2020 sixth-rounder who played just three defensive snaps in 2022, but he — like Coughlin — led the Giants last season with 439 snaps on special teams, where he has been a three-year standout.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Adoree' Jackson, Deonte Banks, Darnay Holmes
• CB Backups: Cor’Dale Flott, Aaron Robinson
• S Starters: Xavier McKinney, Bobby McCain
• S Backups: Jason Pinnock, Nick McCloud, Dane Belton
• Borderline: CBs Tre Hawkins and Amani Oruwariye, S Gervarrius Owens
• Notable Turnover: CB Fabian Moreau (free agent), S Julian Love (Seahawks)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Jackson is a 2017 first-rounder who signed with the Giants in 2021 after four years with the Titans (2017-20). He has missed 29 games since 2019, but during his Giants tenure he has allowed just 5.5 yards per target, and for his career he has never had a PFF coverage below 65. In a contract year, he should be motivated.

Banks is a first-round rookie with an elite size/speed profile (4.35-second 40-yard dash a 6-foot and 197 pounds) and the physicality to press effectively at the line of scrimmage. He will partner with Jackson to form a high-upside (albeit maybe high-variance) perimeter duo.

Holmes is a 2020 fourth-rounder who is absolutely disastrous in run support (29.0 PFF grade last year) and merely egregious in coverage (49.5) — but he’s the only corner on the team with sustained NFL slot experience. If either Flott or Robinson is able to transition to the slot and outplay him in training camp, he could lose his roster spot.

Flott is a 2022 third-rounder who played well last year in coverage (73.0 PFF grade) but poorly against the run (43.0). Robinson is a 2021 third-rounder who missed most of 2022 because of an appendectomy and then a season-ending knee injury, but throughout his career he has allowed just 5.5 yards per target, and he has at least played 28.5% of his snaps in the slot, so there’s a chance he could unseat Holmes.

Hawkins is a sixth-round rookie with good length (6-foot-1 and 190 pounds) and great athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash, 6.74-second three-cone) but limited coverage ability: He’s a project. Oruwariye is a 27-year-old veteran who has started 36 games over the past four years with the Lions — but he has also allowed 9.3 yards per target for his career.

Either Hawkins or Oruwariye could push for a roster spot if Holmes is replaced in the slot or Robinson is slow to return from injury.

McKinney is a 2020 second-rounder who played well in his first two seasons but regressed last year (61.2 PFF grade) and missed half the campaign because he broke his hand while driving an all-terrain vehicle in the Week 9 bye.

McCain is a veteran CB-turned-S who spent the first eight years of his career with the Dolphins (2015-20) and Commanders (2021-22). Capable of lining up in the slot, on the perimeter, in the box and downfield, McCain joins the team as a darkhorse candidate to replace Holmes in nickel packages.

Pinnock is a 2021 fifth-rounder who played 473 snaps last year after the Giants added him from waivers. He’s a strong run supporter but a subpar cover man (75% catch rate, 11.2 yards per target), which is a weird profile for a centerfield safety to have.

McCloud is a 2021 UDFA who is converting from CB to S after showcasing great versatility last year in his first season with the team (143 snaps in the box, 151 in the slot, 258 out wide). Solid in coverage, run defense and even pass rush, McCloud has the potential to develop into a starter.

Belton is a 2022 fourth-rounder who had a 32.8 PFF grade as a rookie. He’ll probably make the roster — he was a core special team last year (164 snaps) — but he’ll need to hold off Owens, a seventh-round rookie with four years as a starter and experience at corner, nickel and safety.  

Specialists

• Kicker: Graham Gano
• Punter: Jamie Gillan
• Holder: Jamie Gillan
• Long Snapper: Casey Kreiter
• Kick Returner: Gary Brightwell
• Punt Returner: Jamison Crowder
• Borderline: LS Cameron Lyons, PR Adoree’ Jackson
• Notable Turnover: PR Richie James (Chiefs)

Gano is a 36-year-old veteran who has been kicking for the team since 2020 — and he has been “muh-honey” for the Giants with a 91.8% field goal overall and 80% conversion rate on his 25 attempts of 50-plus yards. It’s honestly hard to find a better kick over the past three years… in part because I’m not going to take the time to look at the data. But, still, you get the idea.

Gillan is a 2019 UDFA who joined the Giants last year and was No. 19 with 46.8 yards per punt and No. 21 with 35.1% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. I’m a little surprised the Giants didn’t bring in competition for him.

Kreiter has been long snapping in the league since 2016 and with the Giants since 2020. He has career-worst PFF special teams grades of 36.0 and 29.8 over the past two years, which probably explains why he has competition in Lyons (a rookie UDFA) — but the Giants re-signed him to a one-year deal this offseason with $352.5K guaranteed, so he’s probably making the team.

Brightwell averaged 21.3 yards per kick return last year, markedly below the league-wide mark of 22.8. I can imagine the team moving on from him even if it’s not obvious now who his replacement would be.

Crowder has a chance to replace Richie as the punt specialist: Last year with the Bills he averaged 11.1 yards per punt return. But he’s far from a lock to make the roster, and Jackson could beat him out as the returner. He had three punt returns for the team last year (albeit for only five yards). Early in his career, he averaged 8.8 yards per punt return for the Titans, and in college he won the 2016 Jet Award as the nation’s top return man.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Giants’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 18
• Home Division: NFC East
• Opposing Division: NFC West, AFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-11
• Opponents: vs. DAL, at ARI, at SF, vs. SEA, at MIA, at BUF, vs. WAS, vs. NYJ, at LV, at DAL, at WAS

Yes, I’m choosing to highlight the first 11 games of the season for the Giants, because I can’t help myself, and the schedule just compounds upon itself as it progresses. Even though the Giants have a moderate schedule based on the win totals of their opponents, there are “situational spots” galore on the calendar.

In Week 1, they’re home underdogs against the divisional rival Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. They could open the season with a loss — and then they play four-of-five away. In Week 2, they travel west for an afternoon game against the Cardinals, which is followed up with a Thursday Night Football road game against the 49ers, who are sizable favorites.

I must assume that the Giants already plan to stay out west on short rest — because it would be murderous to go back to New York and then return for another game so quickly — but even so they’re in a tough spot with back-to-back road games two to three time zones away within four days of each other.

For Week 4, the Giants return home and have three extra days of rest against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football — but they’re deprived of the benefit of playing a West Coast team in the early time slot. And then in Weeks 5-6 they have back-to-back road games as notable underdogs against the Dolphins and Bills.

After that, you’d think they’d get a respite — and at least they’re at home for the next two games — but they host the NFC East rival Commanders and same-stadium Jets. Home-field advantage is significantly diminished within division, and there’s almost no such thing as an easy divisional game. And the Giants will likely have almost no home advantage against the Jets, who are favored.

And then comes the epic coup de grâce: A three-game road trip. In Week 9, they go to Las Vegas, where they’re underdogs to the Raiders in the afternoon. In Week 10, they go to Dallas, where they’re even bigger dogs in a rematch with the Cowboys. Then finally in Week 11 they go to Washington for a rematch with the Commanders.

Playing on the road in division is tough. Playing on the road in a divisional rematch is tougher. Playing a divisional rematch on the road immediately after another road game is cruel. But playing back-to-back divisional rematches as the second and third games of a three-game road trip? That’s criminal.

Without stretching the bounds of reality, I can see how the Giants could easily be 3-8 (and maybe as bad as 1-10) coming out of Week 11… and they’ll still have another week before getting the bye… and they’ll still have two games remaining against the Eagles in Weeks 16 and 18.

I almost don’t even care what my win total projection is for the Giants or what their number is in the market. I’m very tempted to bet the under.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Giants.

• HC Brian Daboll errs too much on the side of conservatism in order to limit the possible negative play of his QB.
• DC Don Martindale calls a defense that relies too much on the blitz and his DBs get beaten repeatedly in man coverage.
• QB Daniel Jones regresses back toward the guy who turned the ball over at will early in his career.
• RB Saquon Barkley suffers a high-ankle injury in Week 3 that sidelines him for three games and limits him all the way to the Week 13 bye.
• WR Isaiah Hodgins leads the team in receiving… with 500 yards.
• TE Darren Waller misses five games to a leg injury and sees his efficiency decline.
• LG Ben Bredeson, C John Michael Schmitz, RG Mark Glowinski and RT Evan Neal all underperform in pass protection and routinely expose Jones to excessive pressure.
• EDGEs Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari play well to start the season but wear down because they take too many snaps as a result of all the other edge defenders sucking.
• DTs Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams are merely fine.
• LB Micah McFadden is slaughtered in coverage on a regular basis.
• CB Deonte Banks plays like a rookie, and CB Darnay Holmes somehow holds onto his slot job all year.
• S Xavier McKinney sees his disappointing 2022 form present itself in 2023.
• P Jamie Gillan can’t get a punt downed inside the 20-yard line to save his professional life.
• Giants start out 2-10, fire HC Brian Daboll in the Week 13 bye, name DC Don Martindale the interim HC and then go 3-2 in their final five games to finish 5-12 and ruin any chance they have of getting a top-two pick… and then they hire Patriots outside LBs coach Steve Belichick (son of Patriots HC Bill Belichick) to be their next HC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Giants.

• HC Brian Daboll continues to strike the right balance between managing his QB and neutralizing the offense.
• DC Don Martindale has just enough talent at his disposal to call a top-10 defense.
• QB Daniel Jones improves upon his 2022 campaign and starts to look like … gulp … a true franchise player.
• RB Saquon Barkley has the best season of his career and wins Offensive Player of the Year as the engine of the offense.
• WR Isaiah Hodgins is one of four WRs with 500 yards receiving.
• TE Darren Waller plays 15 games and crosses the 1,000-yard threshold.
• LG Ben Bredeson develops into a league-average blocker, C John Michael Schmitz dominates as a rookie, RG Mark Glowinski improves marginally and RT Evan Neal makes a massive Pro Bowl leap in his second season.
• EDGEs Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari combine for 20 sacks, and the guys behind them play just well enough to afford Thibodeaux and Ojulari some strategic snaps off each game.
• DTs Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams form the league’s most feared interior duo and wreak havoc as both pass rushers and run defenders.
• LB Micah McFadden loses a training camp battle to LB Darrian Beavers, who quickly turns into the team’s top tackler.
• CB Deonte Banks finishes No. 2 in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting while CB Darnay Holmes is cut from the team in the preseason and replaced in the slot by S/CB Bobby McCain, who stabilizes the team’s secondary.  
• S Xavier McKinney returns to his pre-2022 form.
• P Jamie Gillan has a nondescript, league-average season.
• Giants improve to 12-5, beat the Saints on Super Wild Card Weekend, beat the 49ers — down to their No. 4 QB — in the Divisional Round and then lose by 20 to the Eagles in the NFC Championship. 

In-season angles

I view the Giants as a moderate “bet on” team almost entirely because of Daboll, although — to his credit — Jones has outperformed expectations in negative circumstances.

• Jones as Underdog: 27-16 ATS (20.8% ROI)
• Jones on Road: 18-8 ATS (33.8% ROI)
• Jones as Road Underdog: 17-6 ATS (42.8% ROI)  

If I were to fade the Giants at any point this year, I might consider doing so by looking at their unders, since the main reason for fading them would likely be a lack of faith in Jones. And given how relatively well the Giants have done with him on the road, I’d specifically look at Giants home unders.

• Jones Under: 31-22-2 (12.0% ROI)
• Jones Home Under: 18-9-1 (27.0% ROI)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I have the Giants projected for 8.0 wins, and their consensus win total is 7.5, so you could technically say that I’m bullish on them… but I don’t like their market odds to win the Super Bowl, NFC or NFC East. I also don’t like them to make the playoffs.

If I were to exhibit some bullishness of them, it would likely manifest itself in the form of a +5000 bet at DraftKings on Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year.

But here’s the thing: I have a sense of where/how my team projections might be flawed, and I’ve examined in depth how the schedule plays out for the Giants. Right now, you can bet over 7.5 wins at +100 at DraftKings — and my projection would indicate that there’s value in that position — but I wouldn’t bet that even with someone else’s money.

Instead, I’m looking at the alternative totals market.

Giants Under 5.5 Wins (+250, BetMGM)

At BetMGM you can find alternative win totals for every team in the league, and I’m willing to sell two wins at 7.5 to get an extra +150 on the odds.

I highlighted the circumstantial difficulties of their schedule earlier and think it’s well within the range of outcomes for them to have a 3-12 record (maybe worse) heading into their Week 13 bye, after which they could go into “soft” tank mode. Plus, they have two games against the Eagles and one road game against the Saints in their final five — so they could end up 5-12 even if they do give 100% to close the year.

You’ll remember that I have the team’s best-case scenario at 12-5 and the worst-case scenario at 5-12. And yet I think it’s not unrealistic for them to approach 5-12 just within the normal flow of the season. And that means I think their median outcome is far closer to their floor than their ceiling.

Just shooting from the hip, let’s say that the Giants end up on the negative side of variance and they win only 20% of the games in which they’re underdogs and 50% of the games in which they’re favored. Those numbers feel reasonable to me in an “if things go poorly” hypothetical.

They’re underdogs in 10 games and favorites in seven, so that comes out to 5.5 wins. Given that I think the team’s median skews to the downside, that probably means there’s value at +250 in the coin flip of this “bad scenario.”

Again, shooting from the hip, let’s go through the games and bucket them old-school style into wins and losses. The Giants are underdogs against the Cowboys (twice), 49ers, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Raiders, Saints and Eagles (twice). All of those teams are better than them except for the Raiders and Saints, but they’re at home against the Giants, so I can’t give them both of those games. Bottom line: The Giants get only one win as underdogs.

As favorites, they face the Cardinals, Seahawks, Commanders (twice), Patriots, Packers and Rams. The Seahawks are better than the Giants; it’s hard to beat a divisional team two times in a year; and I don’t see the Giants beating both HCs Bill Belichick and Sean McVay in the same season. Bottom line: The Giants get only four wins as favorites.

Unlike all my other bets, this one (I admit) is driven very much by feel, but the circumstantially difficult nature of the team’s schedule is undeniable, and if the Giants’ season starts to unravel I want to have some exposure to that outcome at enhanced odds.

You can tail the alternate win total on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and start betting today!