2023 New York Jets Betting Preview

The Jets finished fourth in the AFC East last year and saw QB Zach Wilson — the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft — plagued by injury and inconsistency for the second year in a row. At the same time,  added three wins to their record (4-13 to 7-10), they shaved 174 points off their negative differential (-194 to -20), drafted two high-impact first-round rookies (Offensive Rookie of the Year WR Garrett Wilson, Defensive Rookie of the Year CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner) and HC Robert Saleh’s defense went from literally worst in yards and points allowed to top-five (No. 32 to No. 4). 

Outside of the QB position, the Jets looked like a good team — and then they traded for QB Aaron Rodgers. This year, with a Hall-of-Fame passer and brash defense, the Jets are expected to compete for a championship in Saleh’s all-important third year with the team.  

In this 2023 Jets preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Jets preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Offseason Odds

Odds as of June 21. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 21. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 New York Jets team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 21.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 21.

New York Jets general manager and head coach

• General Manager: Joe Douglas
• Head Coach: Robert Saleh
• Team Power Rating: +3.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 7
• Coach Ranking: No. 21

Douglas is a former college offensive lineman — he made 45 consecutive starts for Richmond — who worked as a scout for the Ravens for 15 years before climbing up the executive ranks. That tells you almost all you need to know about him. The guy is a nonstop grinder who has more than put in his 10,000 hours of player evaluation. Following his tenure with the Ravens, Douglas spent a season with the 2015 Bears as the director of college scouting before joining the Eagles as VP of player personnel, in which role he was instrumental to the team’s Super Bowl 52 victory. After three-plus years with the Eagles, Douglas joined the Jets as GM in June of 2019.

The Jets have had mixed results under Douglas. In the four years of his stewardship, the team is 20-46 with a losing record each year. But he was also relatively quick to fire trainwreck HC Adam Gase (who preceded Douglas in New York), and his hire of Saleh looks like it could pay off. He seemingly fell into the dumpster with the Zach Wilson selection at No. 2 — but he at least has covered up most of the stink by drafting Garrett Wilson and Gardner last year and acquiring Rodgers this year. 

Yes, the Jets overpaid to get Rodgers (a likely 2024 first-rounder, plus a lot more), but Douglas has been strategic and smart with his other veteran acquisitions, which has enabled him to rebuild the defense so fast. A determination on Douglas is still to be made, but he looks as good right now as any GM with a .303 winning percentage can.

Saleh — like Douglas — is a grinder. Before being named Jets HC in 2021, he had 10 different coaching jobs with seven organizations in 19 years. Saleh’s big NFL break came in 2017, when new 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan (with whom Saleh worked on the 2006-09 Texans) hired him as DC, a role in which Saleh distinguished himself for four years before leveraging it into his current gig. 

Under Saleh, the Jets have been overly conservative with their offensive playcalling and decision-making — but that’s understandable given the QB play they’ve had. Hopefully with Rodgers, Saleh will now allow the offense to open up while he focuses on the defense, his forte. Since 2017, Saleh’s defense has thrice been top-five in yards. And after his first season with a team, his offense has never been lower than No. 13. 

The 2023 success of the Jets will likely be determined by their offense — and Saleh has ultimate responsibility for that as coach — but as architect of the defense Saleh has done the job.

Robert Saleh Coaching Record

• Years: 2
• Playoffs: 0
• Division Titles: 0
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 1-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -0.25
• Regular Season: 11-23 (.324)
• Playoff Record: NA
• Against the Spread: 19-15 (10.1% ROI)
• Moneyline: 11-23 (-5.2% ROI)
• Over/Under: 15-19 (6.5% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 New York Jets team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 Jets offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 Jets defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 New York Jets offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett
• Offensive Playcaller: Nathaniel Hackett
• Passing Game Coordinator: Todd Downing
• OL Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Keith Carter
• QBs Coach: Rob Calabrese
• RBs Coach: Taylor Embree
• WRs Coach: Zach Azzanni
• TEs Coach: Ron Middleton
• Notable Turnover: OC Mike LaFleur (Rams), OL Coach/Run Game Coordinator John Benton (free agent), WRs coach Miles Austin
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Hackett worked with Saleh on the 2015-16 Jaguars and is the replacement for scapegoat OC Mike LaFleur, who was shackled to the dead weight of QB Zach Wilson, thrown into the Hudson River and told not to drown. That he stayed afloat for two years is actually an accomplishment, and it’s questionable as to how much better or different than LaFleur the new Hackett will actually be. 

Unlike his predecessor, Hackett does not come directly from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. (LaFleur’s first NFL coaching job was with Shanahan on the 2014 Browns, and he stayed with Shanahan until joining the 2021 Jets.) But Hackett has significant Shanahan tie-ins.

Shanahan’s first NFL job was as an offensive quality control coach with the 2004-05 Buccaneers under HC Jon Gruden. When Shanahan left to join the Texans as WRs coach, Hackett got his first NFL job with the 2006-07 Buccaneers — as Shanahan’s direct replacement. Both Shanahan and Hackett have the DNA of the Gruden offense in their schemes. 

Hackett’s offense has been most impacted by Doug Marrone, whom he worked under for nine years (2010-12 Syracuse, 2013-14 Bills, 2015-18 Jaguars), mostly as coordinator and play-caller, but in 2019 he was hired by HC Matt LaFleur (Mike’s brother) to be the Packers OC. Like his brother, Matt LaFleur got his first NFL coaching job from Shanahan, who hired him as an assistant for the 2008-09 Texans, where Shanahan was OC. Matt LaFleur followed Shanahan to the 2010-13 Redskins and 2015-16 Falcons as his QBs coach, and then he worked as the 2017 Rams OC alongside fellow Shanahan disciple HC Sean McVay before making a one-year stop in Tennessee on his way to Green Bay as coach.

That’s the guy Hackett worked under for three years as coordinator — and it’s that guy’s offense (not Marrone’s) that people want and expect to see when they hire Hackett. And he knows that, so his scheme is heavily indebted to Matt LaFleur’s, which is itself heavily derived from Shanahan’s — which is the same scheme that spawned Mike LaFleur’s. 

All of which is a long way of saying this: The schemes for the 2021-22 Jets and 2023 Jets could be highly similar. And if that’s the case, the Jets maybe should’ve kept Mike LaFleur as coordinator — because he can probably run a Shanahan-style offense better than Hackett (or at least his version of it is less adulterated and isn’t mixed with Marrone bitters) — and he’s likely a better play-caller, because few people could be worse than Hackett, based on what we saw out of his 2022 Broncos.

Nov 27, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) scores on a touchdown reception during the first half against the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Under Marrone, Hackett was the OC/play-caller for the 2013-14 Bills. They were No. 27 in early-down pass frequency and -2% in overall pass frequency over expected (Per RBs Don’t Matter). With the 2017-18 Jaguars, Hackett was again Marrone’s OC/play-caller. The Jags were No. 29 in early-down pass frequency and -3% in pass frequency over expected. He didn’t playcall for the 2019-21 Packers — Matt LaFleur did that — but as the 2022 Broncos HC he did retain playcalling duties… for the first 10 weeks of the season. 

After that, he handed them off to QBs coach Klint Kubiak, because Hackett couldn’t hack it. (You knew it was coming at some point.) With Hackett calling plays, the Broncos were No. 17 in early-down pass frequency and 0% in pass frequency over expected — despite having likely Hall-of-Fame QB Russell Wilson. For the season, the Broncos were dead last in scoring, and Hackett couldn’t even make it the full 18 weeks before getting fired.

Hackett deserves mountains of praise for coordinating the 2017 Jaguars offense to a top-five scoring finish with QB Blake Bortles. But the Jags were also No. 31 in scoring the very next season. Given everything we’ve seen out of Hackett over the past decade, 2018 seems more representative than 2017.

The one massive factor in Hackett’s favor is the obvious: He has great familiarity with Rodgers from their time together with the Packers. They speak the same offensive language. They already have an established OC/QB relationship, and his presence in New York probably helped the team recruit its new QB. Rodgers wanted out of Green Bay, but he also wanted an acceptable landing spot. He looked around, and there was Hackett in the Big Apple. 

At that moment, that was good enough for Rodgers. To put this crudely: Hackett is the ex-girlfriend Rodgers is living with now that he has left his wife. Do they really have a deep and meaningful connection? Maybe. Probably not. But they do have something, which is enough for now.

Side note: Hackett’s father (Paul) was a lifelong football coach who served as the Jets OC in 2001-04. Time is a flat circle.

Joining Hackett on the Jets is Downing, who worked with Hackett on the 2014 Bills as the QBs coach and was recently the OC for the 2017 Raiders and 2021-22 Titans, all three of which had average-at-best offenses. The Jets didn’t have a passing game coordinator last year, so at least they’re beefing up the offensive staff and making more of an investment in the aerial attack — but Downing is an underwhelming choice. Also joining Hackett is Carter, as one Shanahan disciple replaces another. Carter worked as an assistant under Shanahan on the 2015-16 Falcons, and then he eventually jumped up to OL coach with the Titans, where he worked alongside Downing for the 2019-22 seasons. He’s a natural fit on the coaching staff in his expanded role.

Although Mike LaFleur is gone, all of his available 2022 position coaches are still on the staff. Calabrese is a 33-year-old with two years of experience as an NFL QBs coach. He made his way to the league via the 2019 Broncos, where he was a quality control coach for OC/former Shanahan QBs coach Rich Scangarello, who recommended him to Saleh and LaFleur. I’m sure he has a lot to teach Rodgers. (Sarcasm.) Embree joined the Jets in 2021 in his current role after never playing or coaching RB at any level. Makes sense. He worked with LaFleur on the 2017-19 49ers as a quality control coach.

Azzanni is a longtime WRs coach who toiled in the college ranks for 18 years before joining the 2017 Bears and then making his way to the 2018-22 Broncos, where he worked with Hackett last year. He’s an organic replacement for Austin, whom the NFL suspended indefinitely (for at least a year) in December 2022 for violating the league’s gambling policy. 

Middleton played TE and special teams in the NFL for 10 years and has coached both positions in college and the NFL since 1997. He previously worked with Hackett as the TEs coach and assistant special teams coach for the 2006 Buccaneers and 2015-18 Jaguars. He joined the Jets in 2021 in his current role and should work well with Hackett in their third stint together.

2023 Offensive Unit Rankings

2023 New York Jets defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich
• DL Coach: Aaron Whitecotton
• LBs Coach: Mike Rutenberg
• Senior Defensive Assistant/CBs Coach: Tony Oden
• DBs/Safeties Coach: Marquand Manuel
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Ulbrich was a 2000 third-rounder who played off-ball LB and special teams for the 49ers for a decade before working as an assistant for the Seahawks, where he and Saleh (defensive quality control) were on the same staff in 2011. Ulbrich joined the Falcons in 2015 as the LBs coach (he and Shanahan worked together for his first two seasons), and he stayed there until 2021, when Saleh hired him as Jets DC. Although the defensive scheme is Saleh’s, Ulbrich manages the defense and calls the plays. Saleh deserves credit for how quickly the Jets defense has jumped from a league-worst to top-five unit — but so does Ulbrich, as well as the position coaches, all of whom are back for 2023.

Whitecotton has been coaching defense in the NFL for 10 years. He worked with Saleh on the 2014-16 Jaguars (first as an assistant, then as assistant DL coach) and reunited with him on the 2020 49ers (assistant DL coach) before following him to the Jets in 2021 for his current role. Similarly, Rutenberg worked as an assistant with Saleh in 2014-16 on the Jaguars, and after serving the team as assistant LBs coach in 2018-19 he joined the 2020 49ers as the defensive passing game specialist. When Saleh got the Jets HC job, Rutenberg joined him in his current role.

Oden (assistant) served on the 2005 Texans staff with Saleh (intern) and has been some variant of secondary coach (DBs/CBs/safeties) since 2011, working with the Saints, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Lions and Dolphins before teaming up with Saleh again on the 2020 49ers as the secondary/CBs coach. He made the jump with Saleh to the Jets in 2021 and has been the No. 2 on the defensive staff since then. 

Manuel was an eight-year NFL veteran safety who first got into coaching with the Seahawks, where he and Saleh were both assistants in 2012-13. Then he worked with Ulbrich on the 2015-18 Falcons, first as secondary coach (2015-16) and then as DC (2017-18). He was an easy hire to oversee safeties in 2021. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Brant Boyer
• Special Teams Assistant: Michael Ghobrial
• Special Teams Assistant: Leon Washington

Boyer played special teams and LB in the NFL for a decade and has been with the Jets as coordinator since 2016 as a holdover from former HC Todd Bowles’ staff. Ghobrial joined the Jets in 2021 from the college ranks, where he worked with Ulbrich on the 2012-13 UCLA staff. 

Washington was a first-team All-Pro return man and scatback for the 2008 Jets and was with the team for the first four years of his career. He had eight kick return touchdowns in the NFL, and after leaving the Jets he played for the Seahawks in 2010-12, when Ulbrich (2010-11 special teams assistant) and Saleh (2011-12 quality control) were coaching there. After retiring, he worked with Saleh on the 2016 Jaguars and Ulbrich on the 2017 Falcons as a coaching fellow and then reunited with the Jets in 2021 as an assistant.

Projected Jets 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Aaron Rodgers
• Backups: Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle
• Borderline: Chris Streveler
• Notable Turnover: Joe Flacco (free agent), Mike White (Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Rodgers is a 39-year-old four-time MVP who regressed in 2022 but was No. 2 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected in the three years prior with Hackett in Green Bay (per RBs Don’t Matter). The upgrade he provides over Wilson in his first year with the Jets is so “incalculabable” that it’s unspellable. 

With Flacco and White gone, Wilson (55.2% career completion rate) will theoretically serve as the No. 2 QB and hopefully develop on the bench, but if Rodgers were to miss time then the Jets might start the veteran Boyle, who backed up Rodgers on the 2018-20 Packers. Of course, there’s no guarantee that Boyle will make the team over Streveler, who made one start for the Jets last year.

Projections as of June 21.

Running Backs

• Starter: Breece Hall
• Backups: Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda, Zonovan Knight
• Borderline: FB Nick Bawden
• Notable Turnover: Ty Johnson (free agent), James Robinson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Hall is a 2022 second-rounder who flashed last year as a 21-year-old three-down rookie with 681 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage in seven games — but he suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 7. Hall has a great athletic profile (4.39-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 217 pounds) and is expected to make a full recovery, but he might not be his full self to open the season. 

Carter is a 2021 third-round bowling ball who impressed as a rookie (964 yards, 14 games) but fell out of favor last year and ceded significant snaps to Knight, Johnson, and Robinson after Hall’s injury. He enters 2023 as the tentative No. 2 RB, but he is officially the “Other Michael Carter” on the Jets and could tumble down the depth chart.

Abanikanda is a 20-year-old fifth-round rookie who smashed last year as a true junior (1,577 yards, 21 touchdowns in 11 games) and blazed at his pro day (4.41-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10 and 217 pounds). He could steal Carter’s job as the No. 2 RB and also might push for work as a kick returner (22.8 yards per return, 1 TD in college). 

Knight had an admirable 400 yards last year as an undrafted rookie and showed some real receiving ability (7.1 yards per target), but he plodded as a runner (3.5 yards per carry). If the Jets were satisfied with him, they probably wouldn’t have drafted Abanikanda — but all three backups are likely to get real playing time at some point. Bawden is an acceptable veteran FB, but the Jets might not need him: The Packers haven’t had an FB for the past three seasons.

Projections as of June 21.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Corey Davis
• WR Backups: Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb
• TE Starter: Tyler Conklin 
• TE Backups: C.J. Uzomah, Jeremy Ruckert, Zack Kuntz
• Borderline: WR Denzel Mims, TE Kenny Yeboah
• Notable Turnover: WRs Elijah Moore (Browns), Braxton Berrios (Dolphins) & Jeff Smith (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Wilson is a 2022 first-rounder who last year smokeshow-ed the combine (4.38-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 183 pounds) and then won Offensive Rookie of the Year with 83-1,103-4 receiving on 147 targets. If Wilson takes a second-season step forward, he could have a Davante Adams-like impact in the offense. 

Lazard is a get-after-it veteran who played with Rodgers for the past half-decade and can line up across the formation. He led the Packers last year with 100 targets, 60 receptions and 788 yards receiving and was acquired this offseason to be a familiar face for Rodgers on and off the field. Davis is a contract-year veteran who has underperformed the $37.5M deal he signed two years ago (66-1,028-6 receiving, 22 games) and might be traded or cut before Week 1 — but he’s still an above-average perimeter receiver.

Hardman is a 25-year-old speedster on a one-year deal. More of a gadget player and return man than a bona fide pass catcher, Hardman never lived up to his second-round draft capital for the Chiefs, but he can play all three WR spots and is an above-average No. 4 WR. 

Cobb has seemingly been slowing down for years, but over the past half-decade he has averaged 8.7 yards per target. As the primary slot receiver on the 2011-18 Packers and trusted veteran presence on the 2021-22 Packers, Cobb is the Steve Buscemi to Rodgers’ Adam Sandler. If Lazard falters in the slot or suffers an injury, Cobb will get significant playing time and probably do better than a 33-year-old should. Mims is a 2020 second-rounder who has just 676 yards in three years. His probationary period is over. 

Conklin is a second-contract veteran with back-to-back seasons of 500-plus yards with two different teams (2021 Vikings, 2022 Jets), but he has an impressive 6.8 yards per target for his career. He’s an acceptable low-end TE1. Uzomah — like Conklin — joined the Jets last season on a three-year contract. Although his deal is for more ($24M vs. $21M), Uzomah played well behind Conklin in 2022 and is a low-upside No. 2 TE. 

Ruckert is a 2022 third-rounder who played just 48 snaps last year, but he was the No. 1 TE in his recruitment class and the team’s best run-blocking TE last year (78.0 PFF grade). He could take Uzomah’s job. 

Kuntz is a seventh-round rookie who led Old Dominion with 73 receptions as a junior (his final full season) and had the most athletic display at the combine ever put on by a TE (4.55-second 40-yard dash, 6.87-second three-cone at 6-foot-7 and 255 pounds). Yeboah is a 2021 undrafted project with just three career targets.  

Projections as of June 21.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Duane Brown, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, RG Alijah Vera-Tucker, RT Mekhi Becton
• Backups: T/G Billy Turner, G/C Wes Schweitzer, OT Max Mitchell, C Joe Tippmann, OL Carter Warren
• Notable Turnover: OTs George Fant (free agent) & Cedric Ogbuehi (Dolphins), RG Nate Herbig
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Brown is a 38-year-old career-long blindside protector who made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2021. He missed four games last year in his first season with the Jets, but he allowed only 23 pressures and one sack in 2022 and has been relatively durable as he has aged. 

Tomlinson had a slow start to his career with the Lions, who traded the 2015 first-rounder to the 49ers for a Day 3 pick. In San Francisco, Tomlinson resurrected his career with five solid seasons as a starter, making the Pro Bowl in 2021 before joining the Jets last year. McGovern is a contract-year 30-year-old veteran who has been a full-time starter for the past half-decade and with the Jets since 2020. He’s above average in both run and pass blocking. 

Vera-Tucker is a talent-laden 2021 first-rounder who made 16 starts at LG as a rookie and then seven successive starts at RG (3), LT (1), and RT (3) last year before suffering a season-ending triceps injury. He could develop into an All-Pro at multiple positions. Becton is a 2020 first-rounder who impressed as a rookie at LT (23 pressures allowed), but he has struggled with weight issues (he was 364 pounds at the combine) and has played just one game in the past two years because of back-to-back season-ending knee injuries.

Turner is a veteran lineman who has made 30 starts at RT, 22 at RG, and seven at both LG and LT over the past five years — the final four of which were with Hackett on the 2019-21 Packers and 2022 Broncos. Even if Becton is healthy in 2023, Turner has a shot to earn the RT spot. 

Schweitzer is a 2016 sixth-rounder who has made 60 starts as an interior lineman since first cracking a roster in 2017. While he’s most experienced at G, he did make five starts at C last year for the Commanders. Mitchell is a 2022 fourth-rounder who stepped up with five RT starts last year when the Jets were stricken by injury — but he didn’t play well (55.5 PFF grade), and he missed the last month of the season because of blood clots, which landed him on the non-football injury list. 

Tippmann is a second-rookie who was the No. 1 C taken in the class. A Wisconsin lineman, he has the size (6-foot-6 and 313 pounds) to play at G if needed, but he’s likely to be the starting C for the 2024 Jets. Warren is a 24-year-old fourth-round rookie who started at LT for four years at Pittsburgh, but he might need to move to the inside in the NFL. He could make the roster because of the uncertainty with Mitchell’s health. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers
• EDGE Backups: Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Micheal Clemons, Bryce Huff
• DT Starters: Quinnen Williams, Quinton Jefferson
• DT Backups: Al Woods, Solomon Thomas
• Borderline: DTs Tanzel Smart
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Vinny Curry (free agent) & Jacob Martin (Texans), DTs Sheldon Rankins (Texans) & Nathan Shepherd (Saints)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Lawson is a 28-year-old contract-year veteran with two ACL tears and a ruptured Achilles on his record — but he has been an above-average pass rusher in all five seasons he has played. He’s an adequate No. 1 EDGE on a unit with six solid contributors but no stars. 

Franklin-Myers is a 2018 fourth-rounder who flamed out with the Rams but caught fire with the Jets in 2020. He has had 50-plus QB pressures in each of the past three years. Johnson is a 2022 first-rounder who was mediocre last year as a pass-rusher but better against the run. Progression will be expected from him in his second season. 

McDonald is a first-round rookie with great explosiveness (11-foot broad jump at 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds) and production: He led Iowa State in sacks in each of his three final seasons, amassing 27 total in that span. Clemons is a 2022 fourth-rounder who was strong against the run (86.4 PFF grade) as a rookie but doesn’t profile to be much of a pass rusher (12.5 career sacks in four college seasons). Huff is an undrafted 2020 specialist who has rotated in since his rookie season and steadily improved over the past three years: In 2022, he shined as a situational player with 36 QB pressures on 173 pass-rushing snaps (88.0 PFF grade).

Williams was the No. 3 overall pick for the Jets in the 2019 draft, and now he’s looking to get paid thanks to his 12-sack first-team All-Pro performance last year. The engine of the team’s defensive front, Williams will almost certainly get a lucrative extension before training camp — but if he doesn’t he could hold out. 

Jefferson is a 30-year-old off-season acquisition with a one-year contract and 48 starts on three different teams over the past half-decade. He hasn’t had a PFF grade of even 60 since 2020, but he’ll be expected to replace the snaps (if not the play) of departed starter Rankins. 

Woods is a 36-year-old journeyman run-stuffer who has the size (6-foot-4 and 330 pounds) to line up at nose. He was a sharp addition after three above-average seasons in Seattle. Thomas has never lived up to the No. 3 overall draft capital that the 49ers invested in him in 2017, but he has played for Saleh for five years (2017-20 49ers, 2022 Jets) and can be counted on to contribute 350-plus subpar snaps without sabotaging the team. Smart has played 75 snaps as a reserve for the Jets since 2020. 

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams
• Backups: Jamien Sherwood, Hamsah Nasirildeen
• Borderline: Zaire Barnes
• Notable Turnover: Kwon Alexander (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Mosley is a 2014 first-rounder whom Douglas scouted for Baltimore, where he racked up four second-team All-Pros in his first five years in the league before signing with the Jets in 2019. He played just two games in his first season with the team because of a groin injury, and he opted out of the 2020 COVID campaign, but he has started 33 games for the Jets since 2021, and last year he had another second-team All-Pro performance. 

Williams is a 2019 third-rounder whom the Jaguars cut in 2021 and the Jets signed the next day and quickly made a starter. An abomination in coverage and liability against the run, Williams plays so many meaningful snaps for the Jets (1,673 in two years) for only one reason I can surmise: His brother is Quinnen Williams. And I guess the guys below him on the depth chart might not be good. 

Sherwood is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has been strong against the run (18 tackles on 84 attempts) but bad against the pass in limited action. He has been a special teamer for the past two years, as has Nasirildeen, a 2021 sixth-rounder with 67 forgettable defensive snaps. Barnes is a Day 3 rookie who could challenge either Sherwood or Nasirildeen for a roster spot.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Ahmad Gardner, D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II
• CB Backups: Brandin Echols, Bryce Hall, Justin Hardee
• S Starters: Jordan Whitehead, Adrian Amos
• S Backups: Tony Adams, Ashtyn Davis
• IR/PUP: SS Chuck Clark (knee)
• Borderline: S Jarrick Bernard-Converse
• Notable Turnover: FS Lamarcus Joyner (free agent), SS Will Parks (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Gardner — “Sauce” if you’re feeling nasty — is a 2022 first-rounder who might already be the league’s best corner. Selected No. 4 overall, Sauce had a first-team All-Pro Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign last season with a league-high 20 passes defended and a 45.9% completion rate allowed. With his combination of size (6-foot-3 and 190 pounds) and speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash), Gardner can match up with almost any kind of WR on the perimeter. 

Reed is a second-contract veteran who played for Saleh on the 2018-19 49ers but broke out with the 2020-21 Seahawks before signing with the Jets last offseason. He’s a strong No. 2 CB with an alpha attitude and four consecutive seasons of PFF coverage grades above 70.0. Carter — no longer the “Other Michael Carter” — is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has been the team’s primary slot man for the past two seasons. Last year he was a solidly above-average contributor in both run and pass defense.

Echols is a 2021 sixth-rounder who was baptized by fire as a rookie starter and then replaced at RCB in 2022 by Reed. He was much better as a backup last year and played heavily on special teams. Hall is a 2020 fifth-rounder who started opposite Echols in 2021 and then ceded his LCB spot to Gardner in 2022, when he played just 15 snaps — but he didn’t play poorly as a starter (6.9 yards per target) and would probably get significant playing time on another team. 

Hall might be the league’s best No. 5 CB. Hardee is a special teams ace who made his first Pro Bowl last year on the strength of a career-high 14 tackles. A college WR who converted to CB as an undrafted rookie in 2017, Hardee signed with the Jets in 2021 after four seasons with the Saints and has been a team captain in both years with the team.

Whitehead is an above-average veteran who can play strong and free but is better deep on account of his mediocre run defense. While he flipped between the two spots last year in his first campaign with the Jets, he’s likely to replace Joyner at FS this year to accommodate Amos, who is more of a box defender given his size (6-foot and 214 pounds). A 30-year-old offseason addition with 122 starts (and another familiar face for Rodgers, thanks to his time on the 2019-22 Packers), Amos will serve as the injury fill-in for Chuck Clark (knee), whom the Jets acquired via trade this offseason but who suffered a season-ending ACL tear in OTAs. 

Without Clark and the absented Parks, Adams will likely be pushed into the No. 3 S role. The undrafted 2022 DB played well against the run last year (83.7 PFF grade), but he also played only 118 snaps — but that’s more than Davis (13 snaps), a 2020 third-rounder who started 16 games for the 2020-21 Jets but was exiled to the sideline last year. The team might want his experience this year, but he’s average at best in pass defense and could lose his spot to Bernard-Converse, a sixth-round rookie corner converting to safety.

Specialists

• Kicker: Greg Zuerlein
• Punter: Thomas Morstead
• Holder: Thomas Morstead
• Long Snapper: Thomas Hennessy
• Kick Returner: Mecole Hardman
• Punt Returner: Mecole Hardman
• Notable Turnover: P Braden Mann (Steelers), KR/PR Braxton Berrios

Zuerlein (aka “Legatron”) joined the 2022 Jets after two years with the Cowboys and eight with the Rams. While he has never re-achieved the heights of his 2017 first-team All-Pro season (95.0% conversion rate), he still has leg for days and has converted 44-of-80 kicks from 50-plus yards for his career. 

Morstead is a 37-year-old veteran who had the unfortunate “Butt Punt” incident last year with the Dolphins but was also No. 5 with 45.9% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. He played seven games for the 2021 Jets as a fill-in for the injured Mann, and he’ll replace him again now in a permanent role. 

Hennessy has been long snapping for the Jets since his 2017 rookie season. Hardman was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and has scored as a kick and punt returner — but he’s probably a small downgrade on Berrios, a 2021 first-team All-Pro with superior career averages (24.9 vs. 23.8 on kicks, 11.4 vs. 9.0 on punts).

New York Jets schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Jets’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 26
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-6
• Opponents: vs. BUF, at DAL, vs. NE, vs. KC, at DEN, vs. PHI

The Jets had a losing record last year — but now they have one of the league’s eight hardest schedules based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, primarily because they’re matched up against the AFC West and NFC East. Plus, their own division is tough.

On top of that, they have some situationally challenging spots. They come out of the bye with three of four games on the road. They also close the season with three of four away. They have no road games against easy opponents.

And their opening stretch to the season is brutal. In Week 1 they host the Bills for Monday Night Football: “Hey, Aaron — welcome to the AFC East!” For Week 2, they travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys, whose HC Mike McCarthy will be facing his former QB. The Jets are underdogs in both of those games. 

They could conceivably be 0-2 when they head back home for Week 3 game against the Patriots. They’re favored, but anything can happen in the division, and there’s no such thing as an easy matchup against a Bill Belichick defense. They could be 0-3 heading into Week 4 — when they host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Needless to say, they’re underdogs in that spot.

So they could be 0-4 when they head on the road in Week 5 to play the Broncos, who will be looking for organizational revenge against Hackett. Mile High can be a tough place to play, especially early-ish in the year. The Jets could lose this game and then be 0-5 when they head back home to host the NFC champion Eagles — and it’s not hard to imagine the Eagles winning.

So the Jets — with Super Bowl aspirations and a Hall-of-Famer at QB — could conceivably be winless headed into the Week 7 bye.

I doubt that happens. In this stretch the Jets have four home games and only two divisional matchups. The three toughest opponents they have all year are crammed into the first six weeks, but at least they’re at home for these difficult games. 

I’m just saying that there’s potential for this season to get away from the Jets very quickly. For the psyche of both their fan base and their new QB, it will be important for them to be no worse than 2-4 at the bye week.

And if they somehow manage to get through this stretch with a 4-2 record or better — watch out.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Jets.

• Saleh oversees a defense that regresses from No. 4 to No. 10 — because defenses regress.
• Hackett is the guy we saw in Denver and is stripped of playcalling responsibilities in Week 10.
• Downing takes over as the play-caller and is somehow worse than Hackett. 
• Rodgers struggles early in the year and openly argues with Hackett on the sideline as the Jets open the season 1-5, resulting in a legacy-defining on-air tirade against Pat McAfee in the Week 7 bye when he takes strong exception to McAfee’s characterization of the team’s play.
• Hall lacks his pre-injury burst.
• Wilson can’t connect with Rodgers as quickly as the veteran wants and Hardman can’t pick up the system, so Lazard and Cobb see way more targets than they should.
• Brown and Becton combine to miss 20 games to injury.
• Lawson suffers a third ACL tear.
• Quinnen Williams reports to camp late because of his contract situation and is out of shape to start the season as a result.
• Quincy Williams becomes way too much of a liability, so the team benches him, which results in Quinnen Williams publicly questioning the team’s leadership in talking with the press.
• Sauce becomes so disgusted and angry with all the other units after a players-only meeting gone wrong that he insists the secondary be allowed to travel separately from the team for the final three road games.
• Jets go 8-9 to miss the playoffs, Saleh is fired immediately after Week 18, and Rodgers takes months to think about the future only to retire shortly before the draft, with Adam Schefter breaking the story live on ESPN.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Jets.

• Saleh becomes something of a pop culture icon as his defense shuts out the Bills and Cowboys to open the year.
• Hackett learns from his 2022 debacle.
• Downing has minimal impact on the passing game.
• Rodgers approaches his 2020-21 form with methodical, efficient football as the Jets start 5-1, and he tells McAfee during the bye week that the team is the best one he’s ever been on.
• Hall has a 2,000-yard season and wins Comeback Player of the Year.
• Wilson clicks immediately with Rodgers, Hardman hits career highs in yards and touchdowns thanks to a series of big plays, and Lazard and Cobb embrace their roles as ancillary contributors.
• Brown stays healthy, and Becton has a Pro Bowl season.
• Lawson has a career-best 12 sacks.
• Quinnen Williams gets his long-term contract well in advance of training camp and has another first-team All-Pro campaign.
• Quincy Williams continues to play horribly, but it doesn’t matter because LBs don’t matter.
• Sauce doesn’t allow a touchdown all year.
• Jets win the division at 13-4, beat the Bills for a third time this year on Super Wild Card Weekend, defeat the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, host and shut down the Ravens in the AFC Championship, and win a low-scoring Super Bowl against the 49ers as Saleh beats Shanahan and Rodgers leads the team on an eight-minute come-from-behind game-winning touchdown drive and then quips afterward to the media, “I guess the 49ers should’ve taken me No. 1.”

In-season Jets betting angles

I view the Jets as a moderate “bet on” team, but it’s hard to know when they’ll be most exploitable because Rodgers is in a new situation (so his home/road splits, division record, etc., are less predictive) and Saleh has a relatively small sample of games (which might also be unrepresentative because he has a new QB).

I do think it’s notable that both Rodgers and Saleh have done well as underdogs.

• Rodgers as Underdog: 33-24-2 ATS (12.2% ROI)
• Saleh as Underdog: 16-12 ATS (13.2% ROI)

Rodgers has also tended to do well in primetime and off the bye.

• Rodgers in Primetime: 41-30-2 ATS (11.8% ROI)
• Rodgers Off Bye: 13-6-1 ATS (31.6% ROI)

I’m not actively looking to fade the Jets at any point, but if I were I might target their matchups with the Patriots in Weeks 3 and 18.

• Saleh vs. Belichick: 0-4 ATS (111.8% ROI for faders)
• Saleh vs. Belichick: 0-4 ML (47.3% ROI for faders)

But, again, Saleh’s sample of games is small and might be unrepresentative of what we’re likely to see in 2023.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason Jets betting market to exploit

Now that we’re out of the top tier, the team futures markets are more intriguing because we have the opportunity for bigger payouts, which help to counterbalance the extended investment periods.

So I like the Jets to win the AFC at +1100 at DraftKings. They have a top-five defense and a QB who is one year removed from back-to-back MVPs.

But I think there’s more value in the season-long player prop market.

Garrett Wilson Under 1,150.5 Yards Receiving (-105) (DraftKings)

I like Wilson and expect him to be a good long-term player, etc., etc.

That said, there are multiple ways for the under to hit.

He could get injured. Rodgers could get injured. Rodgers could be bad. Rodgers could be fine, but the offense could be bad because of Hackett. The offense could be fine, but it could lean on the running game. The offense could be balanced, but maybe Rodgers would throw to Lazard and Cobb more than we’d expect.

If only one thing goes wrong for Wilson, the under will likely hit. For the over to hit, everything probably needs to go right. And I’m too much of a pessimist/realist to bet on that happening.

And if I were to bet on everything to go right for Wilson, I’d just rather bet on the Jets to win the AFC at a bigger payout.

I have Wilson projected for 1056.9 yards receiving so see significant value in betting under 1,150.5 at DraftKings.

You can tail the under on Garrett Wilson and get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below!