2023 NFL MVP Odds

2023 NFL MVP betting odds

When it comes to NFL futures, nothing dominates from a media attention or betting standpoint like the NFL MVP award. The MVP dates back to 1957 when the Associated Press began voting on the award, which is handed out annually to the player who is deemed “most valuable” during the regular season. 

Fifty sportswriters encompass the panel who vote on the award every year by ranking their top five choices at the end of the regular season. The award isn’t specifically labeled the offensive MVP award, but it is almost always awarded to an offensive player. 

Only two defensive players have ever won the award in the 67-year history of the award (Alan Page - 1971, and Lawrence Taylor - 1986). Shockingly enough, a placekicker actually won the award in 1982 during the strike-shortened season (Mark Moseley). 

The variety of winners that dominated the 1980s gave way rather quickly in the 1990s to where only two positions, RB and QB, won the award. And, since the early 2000s, the award has essentially become a “best QB in the league” contest, with passers winning the MVP in each of the past 10 seasons. 

We’re tracking the sportsbooks' odds this year in the table below. The current standings for 2023 NFL MVP odds look like this:

2023 NFL MVP Odds

*odds last updated: Jan. 6, 2024, via BetMGM Sportsbook

2023 NFL MVP Current Favorite 

*Updated 1/6/24

• Lamar Jackson (-10000)

Lamar Jackson is your MVP for 2023. The Ravens QB benefited from some self-destructive performances from Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy down the stretch. He set career bests in completion percentage (67.2%), yards per attempt (8.4), and total passing yards (3678). 

2023 NFL MVP Top 5 in Betting Odds

• Lamar Jackson (-10000)
• Dak Prescott (+1800)
• Brock Purdy (+2500)
• Josh Allen (+3000)
• Christian McCaffrey (+4000)

Prescott was the MVP front-runner before Week 15 but a couple of slow/poor games down the stretch cost him. He set a career-high in completion percentage (69.5%) and vastly improved his INT rate over last season.

Purdy got as low as -150 in the MVP betting odds before San Francisco’s game against Baltimore in Week 16. His primetime meltdown (4 INTs vs no TDs) allowed Jackson to take a stranglehold on the award. Purdy had a great year and will finish the year first in EPA/Play (0.338) among all QBs.

Allen had an up-and-down season but, early in the year, he was one of the frontrunners for this award, getting below +400 in odds at one point. Allen’s turnovers held him back and he’ll finish 2023 with a career-worst 18 INTs.

No RB has won this award since Adrian Peterson in 2012. McCaffrey came close, though, and was second in MVP odds after Week 16. He’ll finish 2023 with career-highs in yards (1459), yards per attempt (5.4) and TDs (21).

2023 In-Season MVP Picks

The following bet was placed by our staff on 12/5/23. There is not a current bet that our team is taking a position on, but read on for when Dak Prescott (+300), was an in-season bet to target.

Dak Prescott (Current: +1800, Was: +300)

This does feel like Dak Prescott’s time. The Cowboy’s quarterback is about to finish his eighth season in the league as a starter and is on pace to set career highs in completion percentage and TD rate (and potentially more categories like TD passes and QBR). 

If we look at some recent winners of this award, veterans who post mid or late-career statistical outburst seasons have done well with voters, with Peyton Manning in 2013, Matt Ryan in 2016 and Aaron Rodgers in 2020 all great recent examples. 

The Cowboys are also a very solid team. They’re favored over the Eagles this week and are ranked ahead of both the Bills and Dolphins in the Massey-Peabody power rankings, teams that both lost straight up to the Eagles already.  

Prescott does have a tougher closing schedule than his co-favorite but, in many ways, that also puts him in control of this award right now – meaning that if he keeps up his current pace, and racks up more tough wins down the stretch, the likelihood that he edges out Purdy for votes will go up astronomically.

Ultimately, if you like the Cowboys to finish strong then looking to leverage that into a Prescott MVP bet before Week 14 does make quite a bit of sense.  If Prescott loses this week his odds will drop and he’ll have a much tougher road to winning the award. However, a win against Philadelphia and he’ll probably be in favorite status by himself at the end of the week, and the upside you’ll stand to gain on a one-unit play, at +300 odds, is far greater – than if you’d just bet the Cowboys straight up or on the spread against Philadelphia at -110 or shorter. 

2023 NFL MVP Past 10 Winners

2023 NFL MVP Betting Trends 

Positional Trend – it’s a QB award

We have had three running backs take down the MVP award over the last 20 years. 

Every other winner since then has been a QB. Two of those RBs also came before 2010 (Shaun Alexander in 2005 and LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006), and the other (Adrian Peterson in 2012) came over a decade ago. 

It’s safe to say that if you are looking at betting MVP, even as far back as 50-1 or bigger, you should still be keeping your bets to just one position. The NFL has not only become a pass-first league, but it’s also one built around quarterbacks. 

Further, as the MVP award has become a “best quarterback award,” the voters have recognized this by siding with non-quarterbacks more often in the best offensive player award.

Betting Trend – look for positive regression targets in team wins

Like most people, MVP award voters like a good comeback story. While it doesn’t apply to every winner, we have had several instances of players over the last 10 seasons who led their team back to elite status after enduring poor or average seasons the year prior. 

Not shockingly, some of those winners were also some of the biggest longshots to win the award over the past decade as well. 

When looking down the board, it’s always good to consider the team’s record from the year prior and the likelihood of an improvement. 

If a positive shift occurs, it can mean lots of late-season media attention for a QB – and big movement in his MVP award betting odds as well. 

When should you bet on the 2023 NFL MVP award?

The NFL MVP award is the most liquid and well-publicized betting market of all the NFL awards. As such, we can expect the odds to shift on the news or good performances much faster and more dramatically than in other categories. 

While the favorites in the MVP award aren’t likely to see much shift in action until the season begins, players further down the list can start to see movement once training camp begins. 

Looking at historical winners and how this award has played out, targeting long shots in the offseason has been a solid way to play this award. 

Recent winners like Lamar Jackson (2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2020) both had odds of +3000 or better on offer going into preseason but saw those odds plummet just a couple of games into the year. 

Jalen Hurts is another great example, as his odds last offseason were as high as +5000 around the draft and were still +2200 when the season began. He eventually lost the award but got as low as -165 in the odds after Week 15. 

He didn’t win but offered early bettors who took him before the season started at +2200 or greater a great hedging opportunity. 

Jalen Hurts 2022 MVP odds progression:

While you can certainly opt to wait and play the MVP market once the season begins, if there is a player back in the odds you feel strongly about, getting on them in the preseason is worthwhile. Even if they don’t win the award (like Hurts), a strong start means you could still hedge off them later on with one of the other favorites. 

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