Are you ready for some football?! With the NFL having officially released the schedule for the upcoming season, speculation for Week 1 is already underway. All 16 teams will be in action, and there are plenty of questions to discuss over the next four months.
The sportsbooks have also released lines for all of the Week 1 contests, so it’s a great time to try and identify some early betting value. Which of these games should we lock in now, which ones should we monitor, and which ones do we still need more information on?
Let’s dive in.
Thursday Night Football
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – 53.5 total
Detroit enters the year with sky-high expectations, but they’re going to have to kick off the campaign against the defending champs. Kansas City won their second Super Bowl in the past four years in February, and they’ve made it to the AFC Championship every year since Patrick Mahomes became the starter. As long as he’s under center, the Chiefs will be the team to beat once again in 2023.
That said, Kansas City isn't infallible, at least when it comes to the spread. They’ve actually had a pretty dubious track record of covering big spreads in recent years, going just 11-19 against the spread (ATS) when favored by at least a TD since 2020.
Conversely, Lions head coach Dan Campbell has an elite history of covering the spread as an underdog. The Lions have the second-best ATS record since he took over two years ago, and Campbell has a sparkling 20-9 ATS record as a dog. That includes a record of 10-4 ATS when the other team is favored by a TD or more.
This number is currently listed at Lions +6.5 on BetMGM, but you can find it at +7.0 on Caesars Sportsbook. The hype on the Lions is only going to build, so I like the idea of locking in the full TD line early.
- Pick: Lions +7.0 (-110; Caesars Sportsbook)
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Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) – 43.5 total
The NFC South is expected to be pretty wide open this season, and I like the Falcons as a dark horse to win the division. Their odds have dipped since I wrote them up at +400, but they’re still clearly behind the Saints in the divisional odds hierarchy. And given how poorly Derek Carr played in his final year in Las Vegas, I’m not sure that’s warranted.
The Falcons are in a great spot to start the season on the right foot at home against the Panthers. Carolina traded up for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which they used on QB Bryce Young. That gives the Panthers plenty of future upside, but they’re likely going to struggle in Year 1.
From 2013 to 2021, rookie QBs have gone just 41-120-1 straight up in road contests, which is a dismal 25.5% win rate. Rookie QBs have been better ATS over that span, but the Falcons are favored by less than a field goal. If they’re going to win this game, they’re likely going to cover.
Atlanta spent heavily in free agency and have blue-chip players across a number of offensive skill positions. Their QB situation remains a major question mark, but Desmond Ridder likely won’t be played under the table by Young in his first career start.
This number is already up to Falcons -3.0 across most of the industry, but it’s still available at -2.5 (-120) on BetMGM. Three is easily the most important key number in NFL betting, so I don’t want to miss out. This is another one I’m willing to lock in early.
- Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-120; BetMGM)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) – 44.5 total
The Texans are another squad that will be breaking in a rookie QB, presumably starting in Week 1 against the Ravens. Houston traded a lot of assets to make sure that they got C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson in the draft, so the pressure is on the Texans to compete right out of the gate. If they don’t, the Cardinals will get to reap the benefit of wherever the Texans’ first-round pick in 2024 happens to fall.
The question is, can Houston do it? It seems highly unlikely unless you’re a huge believer in Stroud. The rest of their roster isn’t exactly brimming with talent, so this team wasn’t just a QB away from contending.
Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (95) reaches in on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) during the first quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki 112722 Nfl Ravens Jags 19 Photo Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK
On the other side, the Ravens are officially back after locking up Lamar Jackson to a five-year extension. Don’t sleep on how good Jackson is when healthy and supported by NFL-caliber pass-catchers. He was the league MVP not that long ago, and Jackson’s gone 8-4 or better in four of his five professional seasons.
The Ravens have reinvigorated their WR corps during the offseason, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and using their first-round draft pick on Zay Flowers. With a healthy Rashod Bateman also back in the mix, don’t be surprised if Jackson has another MVP-caliber season if he can stay on the field.
I don’t think there’s a ton of reason to rush to lock in the Ravens, but they’re the side I’m leaning towards as of now.
- Lean: Ravens -9.0 (-110; DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns – 47.5 total
This is a very important year for the Browns. They gave up a lot to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Texans, as he was one of the best QBs in football before missing nearly two years with a suspension.
However, Watson didn't look remotely like the same player after returning to the lineup last year. He averaged just 6.0 adjusted yards per attempt – down a full 3.5 yards compared to his final season in Houston – while throwing just seven TDs and five INTs.
Of course, Watson was always going to have some rust after an extended absence, and his six games last season were merely a warmup for hopefully a full season in 2023. Given his previous success, I would expect Watson to be much better this coming year.
Unfortunately, the Browns are going to start the season with one of the toughest possible matchups. They’re taking on the Bengals, who made the Super Bowl two years ago and followed that up with a trip to the AFC Championship last year.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been an absolute buzz saw over that time frame, posting a record of 27-13 ATS (including the postseason). That makes them the most profitable team in football over that stretch, and Cincinnati has also been 8-3 ATS as road favorites over the past two seasons.
I lean towards the Browns as home dogs in this matchup, but this is another game where waiting makes the most sense. We’re not losing much value if this number dips to +2.0 or +1.5, so hoping for a +3.0 (or better) line in a few months is the preferred strategy.
- Lean: Browns +2.5 (-110; FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts – 43.5 total
Most of these lines have not seen a ton of sharp activity, which makes sense with nearly four months to go before kickoff. That said, this matchup is an exception. The sharps have already shown some interest in the Colts, which has driven this number from +4.0 down to +3.5. The public will more than likely be on the trendy Jaguars in this spot, so this could be an early “sharps vs. squares” showdown.
Jacksonville took a step forward by winning the division last year, and they were able to put together a massive comeback victory over the Chargers in the postseason. That said, I’m not ready to anoint them as the next big thing just yet.
Specifically, Trevor Lawrence has become a bit overhyped. There are plenty of casual fans who want to put him in the same conversation as guys like Burrow and Justin Herbert, and while Lawrence might get there eventually, he’s not there yet.
Jan 21, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) throws against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half in the AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Lawrence put together a solid stretch midseason in 2022, but he quietly came crashing back to reality. He averaged just 6.76 adjusted yards per attempt over the final three games of the regular season, and he was even worse in the postseason.
Ultimately, Lawrence still has to prove that he’s a QB that can get his team to the postseason perennially. Additionally, the Jaguars spent big in free agency two years ago, which tends to lead to a lot of wins in Year 1. However, those teams often regress in Year 2, so it will be interesting to see how Jacksonville will perform in 2023.
Meanwhile, the Colts have had a talented roster for the past few seasons but have lacked consistent QB play. They will look to change that with Anthony Richardson in 2023, who is arguably the most dynamic athlete that the QB position has ever seen.
Even as a rookie, he will give defensive coordinators nightmares, and the Colts seem committed to getting Richardson as many reps as possible, so there’s a very real chance that he will start Week 1. Ultimately, this feels like a great spot to sell high on the overrated Jaguars and buy low on a potentially overlooked Colts squad.
- Pick: Colts +3.5 (-110; BetMGM)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) – 45.5 total
The Vikings were one of the most confusing teams in football last season. They won a lot of games, entering the postseason with a 13-4 record, but they somehow had a negative point differential.
Although Minnesota thrived in close games, winning an NFL-record 11 one-score contests in 2022, everyone knew that the Vikings were frauds, and they were unceremoniously bounced at home by an equally mediocre Giants squad during the playoffs.
The Vikings are due for regression in 2023, but how much they'll regress remains to be seen. Their point differential suggests that they were a roughly .500 ball club last season, and that seems like a pretty reasonable expectation for Minnesota this coming season.
They’re expected to start the year with a win against the Buccaneers, who will be starting either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask at QB. Neither QB is particularly inspiring, but 6.5 still feels like a big spread.
Week 1 has historically been a great time to look to invest in underdogs, as early season is the time of year where we have the least information about each team. Specifically, teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous year have excelled as underdogs against teams that made the postseason.
Dating back to 2005, teams that missed the playoffs the prior season are 56-42-1 ATS in Week 1 against teams that made the playoffs the previous year, including a perfect 7-0 over the past two seasons.
The Buccaneers are currently available at +7.0 at a few locations across the industry, but they’re juiced up to -120. I don’t think you necessarily need to lock them in now, but they’re a very strong lean for me at the moment. I’m ready to continue fading the Vikings in 2023 like we did in 2022.
- Lean: Buccaneers +7.0 (-120; DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – 42.5 total
The Saints have been blessed with one of the easiest schedules in NFL history this coming year. The Falcons also have a very favorable schedule – such is life in the NFC South – but the gap between those two squads and the rest of the league is massive (per Sharp Football):
New Orleans will start the year with a winnable matchup at home against Tennessee, but I think the Titans are being severely undervalued at the moment. Do they have the most talent in the league? Definitely not, but this team won 11 and 12 games in 2020 and 2021, respectively, before tumbling down to a 7-10 record last year.
Remember, the Titans were sitting at 7-3 last year before an epic late-season collapse allowed the Jaguars to steal the division. Ryan Tannehill missed time with an injury, and he clearly wasn’t the same player towards the tail end of the year. Will Levis will likely get his chance to start for the Titans at some point, but I would bet on Tannehill being under center Week 1.
Mike Vrabel has also been outstanding as an underdog. He took over as the head coach in 2018, and the Titans have gone 25-17-1 ATS as underdogs in the four seasons since, which includes a record of 19-10 ATS when getting more than a field goal. Ultimately, the Titans are in a great spot Week 1, and they’re a solid play for me at +3.5.
- Pick: Titans +3.5 (-110; BetMGM)
San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) at Pittsburgh Steelers – 41.5 total
It was a tale of two seasons for the Steelers in 2022. When they had T.J. Watt in the lineup, they were a solid squad, posting a record of 8-2. In the seven games they played without Watt, they were just 1-6. Watt wasn’t even at his best when on the field, but his presence makes a massive difference for Pittsburgh.
A healthy Watt will hopefully make a huge difference for the Steelers in 2023, but their season is going to be determined by the growth of Kenny Pickett. Pickett struggled as a rookie, but he did make some big-time throws to win games down the stretch.
QBs have also historically made the largest leaps of their career in their sophomore season. Pickett may never be a star QB, but he should be better than he was as a rookie.
Meanwhile, the 49ers had arguably the best roster in football last year. However, they’re going to have their work cut out for them this coming season, as San Francisco will have one of the toughest schedules from a rest perspective. There's also uncertainty about who will be under center for them come Week 1.
Brock Purdy will presumably be the starter when healthy, but there’s no guarantee that he'll be ready to open the season. If Purdy can’t go, Trey Lance would likely get the nod, and he hasn't proven capable of making the 49ers road favorites over anyone. Mike Tomlin is another elite coach at covering the spread as a dog, so I could have some interest in taking Pittsburgh if Lance is starting. Ultimately, this seems like a wait-and-see spot.
- Lean: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-5.5) – 40.5 total
I have no idea how to feel about either of these squads at the moment. The Cardinals could be starting fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune if Colt McCoy isn't healthy, and the Commanders are slated to start Sam Howell, who's also a former fifth-round pick.
Ultimately, neither team warrants much excitement for 2023, but Arizona has the potential to be the worst team in the league. Their current win total is set at just 4.5 at some locations, which is as low as I can remember seeing.
Despite the Cardinals' projected struggles this coming year, 5.5 points is a lot to give Washington, even at home. With that in mind, I lean towards grabbing the points with the Arizona, but this game is probably the least appealing on the slate.
- Lean: Pass
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-2.5) – 44.5 total
All aboard the Bears bandwagon. I have exposure to the Bears in virtually every manner possible: over 7.5 wins, to win the Super Bowl, Matt Eberflus to win Coach of the Year, and Justin Fields to win MVP. It’s only natural that I like Chicago +2.5 in Week 1 at home against Green Bay.
I love what the Bears have been able to accomplish this offseason. They acquired a legitimate No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore. They also revamped their offensive line, signing Nate Davis at guard and drafting Darnell Wright at tackle. On top of that, Chicago brought in a host of new defensive starters, including spending big money on Tremaine Edmunds.
Meanwhile, the Packers will be handing the ball to Jordan Love to begin a new era. Love will attempt to follow in the footsteps of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre, which will be easier said than done. The fact that Rodgers couldn’t succeed with a similar supporting cast last year doesn’t bode well for Love’s chances.
This line is still available at Bears -1.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, and I think it’s a great number to lock in now. Chicago has already started to get a little steam in the futures market, so it wouldn’t shock me if this number moves to a field goal or more prior to Week 1 kickoff.
- Pick: Bears -1.5 (-115; FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) at New England Patriots – 46.5 total
The Eagles are a team that I’m fading in the futures market. They lost a bunch of talent from last year’s squad, particularly on the defensive side. Philadelphia did draft a couple of potential impact players in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, but I think it’s reasonable to expect some regression on that side of the ball.
They also have a rough schedule from a rest perspective, as they’ll take the field with a rest advantage in just one game next year. The Eagles will be playing against a team with a rest advantage on five separate occasions, so that’s a pretty big disparity. Of course, that doesn’t matter in Week 1, but I think that expecting Philadelphia to finish as the top seed in the NFC once again is a big ask.
On the other side, this is a make-or-break year for Mac Jones. There were rumblings that Bill Belichick was looking to move him during the draft, as Jones regressed badly in his sophomore season in 2022. That said, having Matt Patricia as his offensive coordinator and one of the worst groups of pass-catchers certainly didn’t help Jones last year.
The return of Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator should help, and the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster should help as well. JuJu didn't produce much last season even on the Chiefs, who had one of the best offenses in the league, but he was one of the better WRs in the league after the catch.
This is a line I’ll be looking to monitor during the preseason assuming that Belichick sticks with Jones as the starter. I lean towards the Patriots, but this is a pass for now.
- Lean: Pass
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5) – 44.5 total
What a disaster of a year for the Broncos in 2022. Their defense was phenomenal to start last season, allowing 17 points or fewer in regulation in nine of their first 10 contests. But somehow, the offense was so bad that the team managed to win just three of those games.
Russell Wilson looked like a shell of the player that he was in Seattle last season, but Denver did make some offseason moves to help him out. They drafted an absolute burner in Marvin Mims in the second round, and they brought in offensive guru Sean Payton to take over at head coach. Payton routinely led the Saints to top-five offensive finishes with Drew Brees under-center, so the Broncos’ front office will be hoping that he can do the same in Denver.
Personally, I think that Payton was a byproduct of Brees and not the other way around. Wilson looked cooked last season, and I’m not sure if anything can fix him. He quietly regressed in his final year with the Seahawks, and Geno Smith stepped right into the same situation and looked better. Smith was a career backup, so that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in Wilson going forward.
Meanwhile, the Raiders will transition from Derek Carr at QB to Jimmy Garoppolo. While that may sound like a downgrade on paper, Garoppolo graded out better than Carr in basically every metric last year. Part of that was playing for a loaded team in a Kyle Shanahan offense, but it’s possible that Las Vegas is actually slightly better off at QB with Garoppolo heading into 2023. Ultimately, I like the Raiders at anything better than +3.0.
- The Pick: Raiders +3.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) – 49.5 total
The Dolphins had highs and lows last season, but the highs were very high. Tua Tagovailoa emerged as an MVP candidate early in the year when healthy, and Miami boasted one of the most explosive passing attacks in football to start 2022. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle arguably make the best WR tandem in the NFL, and Mike McDaniel's scheme was able to get the best out of all three players.
Of course, Tua's health is a major concern. He suffered multiple head injuries last season, and there are legitimate questions about his NFL longevity. Following the concussions, Tua lost four straight games to end the 2022 season, and he averaged just 246 passing yards with six TDs and five INTs in those contests.
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) throws the football during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
On the other side, the Chargers had a typical Chargers season. They did manage to make the playoffs for the first time with Justin Herbert under center, but they bowed out in embarrassing fashion. The number of ways that Los Angeles has found to lose games over the past decade truly boggles the mind.
Is this the year that they finally put it all together and live up to their talent level? That remains to be seen, but a full year from Mike Williams and Keenan Allen would certainly help. Adding Quentin Johnston via the draft gives Herbert easily the best collection of pass-catchers he's had in his young career.
I would lean towards the Dolphins if this number gets to 3.0, but it’s currently at 2.5 across the industry. The Chargers have gone just 9-13-1 ATS when favored by at least a field goal in the Herbert era, so that half-point is an important one. It’s a pass for me for the time being.
- Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) – 46.5 total
The Seahawks were one of the biggest surprises in football last year. Not much was expected of them after having traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos, but Seattle still managed to earn a trip to the playoffs as a wild card with Geno Smith at QB.
Smith was the biggest reason for the team’s surprising success. He was basically left for dead after flaming out as the Jets’ starter, but he showed the NFL world that he was a capable QB last season. Smith had the ninth-best Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade among QBs in 2022, sandwiched right in between Tua and Kirk Cousins. Among QBs with at least 800 snaps, Smith had the fifth-highest PFF grade.
The Seahawks rewarded Smith with a three-year, $75 million deal this offseason, and now he’ll look to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. The good news is that his supporting cast should be even better in 2023. Seattle added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet in the NFL Draft to an already impressive group consisting of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker.
The Rams were also a massive surprise in 2022, but not in a good way. They flamed out after winning the Super Bowl two years ago, posting one of the worst follow-up seasons for any defending champion. Los Angeles lost Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald to injuries.
The good news is that all three of those players are expected to be back in the lineup heading into 2023. The bad news is that the Rams' all-in moves to win a Super Bowl led to minimal draft capital to bolster their roster, and the fact that they used a fourth-round pick on a backup QB who wont help the roster next year is also far from ideal.
I do think that there’s a chance the Rams could surprise if Stafford and Kupp return to their form, but the rest of their roster will still be in disarray. I lean towards Seattle but not with enough confidence to actually bet them.
- Lean: Pass
Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) at New York Giants – 46.5 total
How about a good old-fashioned rivalry game to kick off Sunday Night Football in 2023? The Cowboys had a typical Cowboys season last year, winning a bunch of games during the regular season before flaming out in the playoffs. They did manage to beat a Walking Dead-version of Tom Brady in the Wild Card round, but Dallas then got taken apart by the 49ers in the subsequent round.
The Cowboys have yet to get over the hump in the postseason with Dak Prescott at QB, who is starting to get a reputation as a player that “can’t win the big one".
That said, this is arguably the most talented version of the Cowboys that we’ve seen in quite some time. They made two big additions in the offseason in Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks and jettisoned the dead weight of Ezekiel Elliott. Just siphoning most of Elliott’s touches from last season to Tony Pollard in 2023 should immediately make the offense better.
Jan 16, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) drops back to pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first half during the wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas also beefed up their defense by using three of their first four selections on defensive players, including two defensive linemen. They already had one of the best pass rushes in football, so with Gilmore shoring up their secondary, the Cowboys' defensive unit could be a monster in 2023.
The Giants were able to sneak into the playoffs last year, and I’m still trying to figure out how, as on paper, they had a terrible roster. Daniel Jones was throwing to a collection of misfits at WR for most of the year, and the defense wasn’t exactly loaded. Still, head coach Brian Daboll was able to get the best out of this island of misfit toys, earning himself a Coach of the Year award in the process.
However, New York's schedule gets significantly tougher this coming season, so it will be difficult for this team to repeat their run from last year. Still, the Giants are getting a bit of early sharp support in this matchup.
While I don’t like to go against the sharps often, I just don’t see it in Week 1. There's an argument to be made that the Cowboys might be the best team in the NFC heading into 2023. It’s hard for me not to lay the points against a Giants squad that outperformed all of their metrics last year.
This number is down to Cowboys -2.5 (-120) on DraftKings, and given the sharp activity, it could continue to move in their favor. That means I don’t think we necessarily need to lock this one in early.
- Lean: Cowboys -2.5 (-120; DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Monday Night Football
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at New York Jets – 47.5 total
The last game of Week 1 is arguably the most intriguing. On one side, we have the Bills, who were the title favorites for most of last season. They ultimately lost to the Bengals during the postseason, but Buffalo remains one of the best teams in the league. They even added another weapon to Josh Allen’s arsenal during the draft, trading up in the first round to select TE Dalton Kincaid. He’s more of a tweener than an inline TE, so expect to see him used in the slot often as a rookie.
Allen didn’t really need any additional weapons, but I’m sure he’s not complaining. He finished in the top three of the MVP voting for the second time in the past three years, and it feels like it’s just a matter of time before he takes home the award. Allen might be the best mobile QB in the NFL, and he accounted for more than 5,000 yards of total offense and 40 TDs in 16 games last season.
On the other side, we have the Jets, who displayed plenty of blue-chip talent last season, and their 2022 draft class may go down as one of the best ever. Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner took home the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, respectively, and Breece Hall would’ve been in contention alongside Wilson for Offensive Rookie of the Year were it not for a season-ending injury.
The Jets' defense was a strong suit last season, particularly against the pass. They did a phenomenal job of slowing down the Bills’ passing attack in their two matchups last year, limiting Allen to just 4.62 adjusted yards per attempt in those games.
New York's biggest issue in 2022 was their QB play, which they attempted to resolve in the offseason by acquiring Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers struggled last year with the Packers’ young WR corps, but he won the MVP in each of the two previous seasons. If Rodgers has anything left in the tank, the Jets have the potential to be one of the better teams in football.
The sharps have shown some interest in the Jets in this game, and given how well their defense performed against the Bills last year, I think that interest is warranted. After all, New York managed to beat Buffalo at home last year in Week 9 despite getting just 154 passing yards from Zach Wilson. Even if Rodgers isn’t the same player he was in his prime, he’s still better than any of the QBs the Jets were rolling out last season.
- Pick: Jets +2.0 (-110; FanDuel Sportsbook
