It’s futures season, as BetMGM has started to drop season-long player totals on their sportsbook, which gives us a chance to chase or fade our biggest player convictions for the 2023 NFL season.
Locking in bets this early in the offseason requires patience but can also be extremely profitable. Oftentimes, early offseason totals are based solely off what a player did in the previous season and not necessarily baking in upside or downside of offseason changes that can have a drastic effect on usage or performance in the coming year.
Today, we’ll be focusing on QB passing yardage totals to bet. If you want to find more potential bets to target, check out the Fantasy Life Projections page, where every QB has a defined season-long total for both passing yardage and TDs (among other stats).
Before we dive in, make sure to take advantage of the First Bet Offer on BetMGM and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and place your QB passing yardage bets today!
Bryce Young
- Over 3,299.5 passing yards (-115)
Bryce Young joined a Panthers team that ranked just 28th in offensive passing DVOA in 2022, but Carolina's staff and roster also underwent drastic changes this offseason, most of which should be positive.
New head coach Frank Reich is a former QB who made it a point to surround Young with pass-catching talent. The Panthers signed free agent WRs D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen to occupy key roles, and they spent early-round draft capital to select yards after the catch (YAC) stud WR Jonathan Mingo.
Carolina’s offensive line held up fairly well in pass protection last season, but regardless, Dwain McFarland noted in Young's rookie profile that the rookie QB thrived under pressure in college at Alabama.
"Among the 146 QBs who registered at least 100 dropbacks under pressure, Young ranked sixth in passing grade on his 370 dropbacks under pressure. He delivered an eye-popping 26 TDs and only six INTs under duress, and his 8.4 YPA was sterling in comparison to the 6.1 YPA average of his peers.”
Young’s current yardage total seems to be conservative and might be baking in some heightened injury risk considering his lack of size, but it ignores the upside of his landing spot. The Fantasy Life projections agree, as they have Young projected for 3,430 passing yards, which would blow his current betting line out of the water.
Jumping on over 3,299.5 passing yards for Young early makes sense, as uncertainty about rookie QB production is setting his yardage total at an artificially low number right now.
Daniel Jones
- Over 3,199.5 passing yards (-115)
The Giants were conservative in the passing game in 2022, ranking just 24th in yards per pass attempt. The training wheels were on tight in Brian Daboll’s first season as head coach, but we should see the play-calling loosen up a bit more in Year 2.
New York spent a third-round draft pick to bring in more speed with WR Jalin Hyatt, a track star who averaged 18.9 yards per catch in his final year of college. The trade for Darren Waller also gives the Giants another athletic pass-catcher at TE. Waller’s average aDOT over the last three seasons was around 10.0 yards, which is more than double Daniel Bellinger's aDOT as a rookie last year.
Josh Allen’s passing production was able to progress nicely in his second and third seasons in Daboll’s offense, so there's reason to believe that Daniel Jones's numbers could see a tick up in his second full season under Daboll as well.
Jones’s passing yardage total is currently set at over 3,300 yards in the Fantasy Life season-long projections, which suggests that we should have a nice cushion to work with to bet over 3,199.5 passing yards for him even if he were to miss a bit of time. Jones is another solid early summer target to bet if you’re looking to lock in some passing yardage futures before training camps begin.
Mac Jones
- Over 3,199.5 passing yards (-115)
Buying low on players who are coming off lackluster seasons is a solid angle to consider when looking at passing yardage totals. Mac Jones was the apple of everyone’s eye after his rookie campaign, when he threw for 3,801 yards in 17 starts and posted a solid 67% completion percentage.
Unfortunately, Jones regressed across the board in Year 2. He spiked massively in sack rate, averaged just 6.8 yards per attempt, down from 7.3 as a rookie, and produced just 2,997 passing yards in 14 starts. Jones bears some responsibility for his poor performance as a sophomore, but a lot of what went on in New England last year can be attributed to coaching, or lack thereof.
Bill Belichick allowing former special teams and defensive coordinators Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense in 2022 was nothing short of gross negligence. It’s worth noting that Jones was absolutely fine in his rookie campaign when Josh McDaniels, a coach with 13 years experience of being an offensive coordinator, was running things on offense.
Thankfully for Jones and Patriots fans, the team brought in Bill O’Brien to help rectify the situation for 2023. O’Brien spent six years as either the primary play-caller or coach of the Patriots' offense during some of the most fruitful seasons of Tom Brady’s career. There are already reports that things have been going much more smoothly at OTAs than they did last season, when Jones was even caught directing a terse “F-bomb” at Patricia at one point.
Lost in all this hoopla for gambling purposes is the fact that Jones still managed to average 214 passing yards per game in 2022, which would have been more than enough for him to clear his current 2023 yardage betting line had he played all 17 games. With reports that New England could look to sign DeAndre Hopkins to bolster their WR room, Jones looks like a ripe target for better numbers in Year 3.
Betting the over on 3,199.5 passing yards for Jones looks promising, as he's projected for well over 3,300 passing yards in the early season-long projections on Fantasy Life. Attack the over on Jones now before any more positive news about the Patriots' new offense under O'Brien comes out during training camp.
Kirk Cousins
- Under 4,324.5 passing yards (-115)
Cousins threw for over 4,500 yards last season, but he benefited immensely from the Vikings' struggles on defense. Minnesota allowed the second most yards per game in the league in 2022, and they also ranked fifth-worst in both defensive pass DVOA and overall defensive DVOA. The incompetence on defense led to the Vikings being in a ton of late-game, pass-heavy scenarios, which pushed them to attempt 39.2 passes per game last year, the third highest in the league.
This offseason, the Vikings made quite a few defensive free agent additions, and their secondary should be much improved in 2023 after signing CB Byron Murphy and hopefully getting 2022 second-round CB Andrew Booth back healthy.
Even if they're still not quite a defensive juggernaut, Minnesota should at least no longer have a bottom-five defense this coming season. A more stout defense could lead to a more neutral or even slightly below-average pass rate for Cousins, who threw a career-high 643 pass attempts last year.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8), in action during first half against the Miami Dolphins during NFL game Sunday Oct 16, 2022 in Miami Gardens. Photo Credit: Bill Ingram / USA TODAY NETWORK
Cousins's 4,547 passing yards in 2022 was the second-most he's had in his career, but there were some red flags attached to his outstanding performance. He dipped drastically in yards per attempt, posting the worst mark of his career at 7.0 yards, and Cousins also saw his sack rate spike up nearly two percent from 2021.
Now entering his age-35 season, Cousins will be in the same age range that fellow pocket passer Matt Ryan was when he began seeing a drastic decline in Atlanta. While Minnesota is loaded with receiving talent, even a slight decline in pass rate or efficiency would cause him to slip under 4,324.5 passing yards in 2023.
The Fantasy Life season-long projections agree, as they have his projected yardage total set at 4,249 for the 2023 season. That would still be a strong season for Cousins but is well under his betting line. As an aging QB who benefited from many stat-padding shootouts last year, bet the under on Cousins's passing yards for 2023.
C.J. Stroud
- Under 3,199.5 passing yards (-115)
This pick isn't a knock on C.J. Stroud, who was the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft. By all accounts, it looks like he’ll be a real player at some point in the future. However, unlike Bryce Young, who has more talent around him in Carolina, Stroud’s rookie production may falter simply due to his uninspiring supporting cast.
The Texans have one of worst WR rooms in the NFL, as an unproven Nico Collins and aging veteran Robert Woods project to be Stroud's top targets. And Devin Singletary, who Houston signed to a one-year deal, isn't really an impact addition to second-year RB Dameon Pierce. Given the lack of offensive talent, it wouldn’t be shocking if head coach DeMeco Ryans were to opt for a more conservative, run-heavy approach this coming season.
The other potential concern for Stroud is that the Texans have a contingency plan in Davis Mills, and there are reports that Mills has been splitting first-team reps with Stroud in OTAs. Considering the fact that Houston's offensive line ranked just 17th in pass block win rate in 2022, it's possible that Ryans could start Mills for a few games late in the season if the Texans are out of contention to protect Stroud.
Stroud will likely need to play a full 17-game season, or at least close to it, to reach his current passing yardage total. Even then, he'd have an uphill battle to reach that in a potentially run-heavy offensive that's also bereft of pass-catching talent. Stroud could eventually blossom into the Texans' franchise QB, but as a rookie, the bet is under 3,199.5 passing yards.
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