2023 San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview

The 49ers began last season with the unknown Trey Lance at quarterback and finished it with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy manning the position — and yet they still advanced to their third NFC Championship game in four years. This year, the 49ers are unsure as to who will start for them in Week 1, but they are once again expected to compete for a championship under miracle worker HC Kyle Shanahan.

In this 2023 49ers preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz's excellent 2023 49ers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network.

2023 San Francisco 49ers offseason Odds

Odds as of June 18. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of June 18. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 San Francisco 49ers team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of June 18.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of June 18.

San Francisco 49ers General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: John Lynch
• Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan
• Team Power Rating: +4.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 5
• Coach Ranking: No. 6

Lynch was a Hall-of-Fame safety with the Buccaneers and then Broncos — where he played for Mike Shanahan (Kyle’s father) — before becoming a respected color commentator for Fox. After a little over eight years of broadcasting, Lynch asked Shanahan (who had unofficially been tapped as the new 49ers coach) if he could be his GM. Shanahan said yes, and then they both signed six-year contracts. Six-and-a-half years later, they’re still together with no end in sight. 

Unlike many GMs, Lynch is beholden to his coach and seems to lack true decision-making and personnel power, but that doesn’t mean he has no role. His job is twofold: 1) Do all the administrative work that Shanahan doesn’t want to do or doesn’t have time to do. 2) Be a sounding board for Shanahan and help push him in the right direction. Essentially, his job is to free up Shanahan — and sometimes save Shanahan from himself. 

Lynch likely does the first part of his job well. If he were better at the second part, the 49ers probably wouldn’t have invested so much in running backs over the years or traded away three first-rounders for the No. 3 pick in 2021.

Shanahan was born and bred to be an NFL coach. The son of a bona fide offensive innovator, Shanahan has been around the game and absorbing it and studying it since he was a boy. A depth WR in college, he immediately entered the coaching ranks after graduation and quickly worked his way up to offensive coordinator, serving in that role for a number of teams — Texans (2008-09), Redskins (2010-13), Browns (2014) and Falcons (2015-16) — before joining the 49ers in 2017. 

As a schemer, Shanahan has had success with a variety of QBs, from the exciting (Robert Griffin) to the milquetoast (Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan). As a coach and coordinator, he has exhibited an uncanny knack for recognizing, recruiting, training, and empowering other strong coaches for his staff — and then replacing them when they eventually leave to have success on their own. 

As a play-caller, he has demonstrated the ability to get leads early… and the difficulty of holding leads late in high-leverage situations. And as a personnel man, he has had mixed results. With one of the best offensive minds in the league, Shanahan is an elite coordinator who also happens to be a coach.

Kyle Shanahan coaching record

• Years: 6
• Playoffs: 3
• Division Titles: 2
• Super Bowls: 1
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 3-3
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.75
• Regular Season: 52-46 (.531)
• Playoff Record: 6-3 (.667)
• Against the Spread: 57-49-1 (3.9% ROI)
• Moneyline: 58-49 (-4.4% ROI)
• Over/Under: 52-53-2 (-2.8% ROI, Under)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 49ers team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 49ers offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 49ers defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 San Francisco 49ers offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Kyle Shanahan
• Offensive Playcaller: Kyle Shanahan
• OL Coach/Run Game Coordinator: Chris Foerster
• Pass Game Specialist: Klint Kubiak
• QBs Coach: Brian Griese
• Asst. HC/RBs Coach: Anthony Lynn
• RBs Coach: Bobby Turner
• WRs Coach: Leonard Hankerson
• TEs Coach: Brian Fleury
• Notable Turnover: Passing Game Coordinator Bobby Slowik (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Shanahan has gotten the 49ers to the NFC Championship every year that they’ve had QB Jimmy Garoppolo for 10-plus starts: The scheme works. It’s a good thing that Shanahan is his own play-caller: For the fourth time in five years, he lost his top offensive lieutenant in the offseason. 

This year, that role will be filled by Foerster, who has been coaching and coordinating in the NFL since 1993. A consultant for the team in 2018-19, he fully joined the staff as an assistant in 2020, advanced to OL coach in 2021 and then added run game coordinator to his title in 2022. Previously, he overlapped with Lynch on the Buccaneers (1996-2001),  worked with Shanahan on the Redskins (2010-13) and had prior stints with the 49ers (2009-09, 2015). Foerster’s a trustworthy and capable No. 2 unlikely to leave for another opportunity after the season. 

Kubiak is a fine replacement for Slowik as the passing game coordinator. (Even though he doesn’t have that exact title, that’s what Kubiak is.) Although Kubiak has never worked with Shanahan, they share the same football DNA, given that Shanahan worked for four years in Houston for Kubiak’s father, who previously played for and then worked for Shanahan’s father in Denver for well over a decade. Kubiak was the QBs coach (2019-20) and OC (2021) in Minnesota for QB Kirk Cousins — Shanahan’s “one who got away” — and the pass game coordinator and QBs coach in Denver last year.

Griese quarterbacked for Mike Shanahan on the 1998-2002 Broncos, and he played for the 2004-05 Buccaneers, who employed the younger Shanahan as a quality control coach. After retiring, Griese became a color commentator and eventually landed the coveted Monday Night Football gig — but then he pulled a Lynch in 2022 and left broadcasting to join the 49ers in his current role. His work last year with the seventh-round rookie Purdy was exceptional. 

Lynn played for Mike Shanahan on the 1997-1999 Broncos and then coached for him on the 2000-02 Broncos. An RBs coach and OC by trade, Lynn worked his way up to be the 2017-20 Chargers HC. He joined the 49ers last year as the Asst. HC and then took on the RBs role in the spring when it looked like Turner — his RBs coach back in the day with the Broncos — would be unable to coach for medical reasons. When Turner returned in the fall, they shared the role of RBs coach. 

Over his career, Lynn has guided RBs Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shonn Greene, LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler to 1,200-yard campaigns. Turner has been an RBs coach in the NFL for almost every season since 1995 — always with at least one of the Shanahans: 1995-2009 Broncos, 2010-13 Redskins, 2015-16 Falcons, 2017-23 49ers. Turner deserves as much praise as anyone for the success of the Shanahan-style zone-running scheme.

Hankerson was a 2011 third-round draft pick of the Shanahans. He played for Kyle on the 2011-13 Redskins and 2015 Falcons but had an injury-marred career as a receiver. After retiring in 2016, he worked as a WRs coach in the high school and college ranks before joining the 2021 49ers as an assistant. In 2022, he was promoted to WRs coach. Fleury was a longtime defensive coach in college and the NFL — he joined the 49ers in 2019 as a defensive quality control coach — but he played QB in college and switched to offensive quality control in 2020. Last year, he got the bump to TEs coach.

2023 49ers offensive unit rankings

2023 49ers defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Steve Wilks
• DL Coach: Kris Kocurek
• LBs Coach: Johnny Holland
• DBs Coach: Daniel Bullocks
• Passing Game Specialist/Nickels Coach: Nick Sorensen
• Notable Turnover: DC DeMeco Ryans (Texans), Pass Game Specialist & Secondary Coach Cory Undlin (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Wilks is an outside hire who speaks to the current lack of depth on the defensive staff. (I’m not saying the staff is bad. I’m saying it’s not deep.) When 2017-20 DC Robert Saleh left to become the Jets HC, the 49ers had Ryans ready as an in-house replacement. But when Ryans left this offseason to be the Texans HC, the 49ers had no one groomed for his job. 

Hence Wilks, who has been in the NFL since 2005 and is respected as a DBs coach but who has never worked with Shanahan and has had limited experience overseeing a defense and even less success at it. As the 2017 Panthers DC, 2018 Cardinals HC, and 2019 Browns DC, he was responsible for three different defenses: Not one finished in the top 10 in scoring, and two of them were in the 20s. 

Wilks will probably be fine as the 49ers DC. Almost all of last year’s position coaches are still in place, and Wilks has great players to work with — but negative potential exists. This unit might not play like last year’s.

Kocurek has been a DL coach for almost 20 years (first college, then NFL). After a long stint with the Lions (2009-17) and a short one with the Dolphins (2018) he joined the 49ers in 2019 in his current role and has overseen a unit that is strong against the run and gets after the passer. Holland played in the NFL as a linebacker with the 1987-93 Packers (he’s in their Hall of Fame) before transitioning to coaching. He worked with Shanahan on the 2006-09 Texans as the LBs coach and was one of Shanahan’s original hires in 2017. Over the past six years, Holland has developed the linebacking corps into one of the league’s best.

Bullocks was a second-round safety for the 2006-10 Lions who eventually transitioned to coaching. He joined the 2017 49ers as an assistant and was elevated to safeties coach in 2019. This year, he’ll oversee the entire secondary as the replacement to Undlin, who followed Ryans to Houston. 

Sorensen was an undrafted safety who had a decade-long NFL career (2001-10), mostly on special teams. After playing, he joined the Seahawks coaching staff and worked his way up to secondary coach before an unfortunate detour with the Urban Meyer Jaguars in 2021 led to him landing with the 49ers last year as an assistant. While Bullocks will run the unit, Sorensen will focus on nickelbacks and replace Undlin as the pass game specialist. 

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Brian Schneider
• Assistant Special Teams Coordinator: Matthew Harper

Schneider enters his second season as coordinator for the 49ers. He oversaw special teams for the 2010-19 Seahawks but then stepped away from the team just days before the 2020 season for personal reasons — and then he did the same with the 2021 Jaguars just a couple months after being hired. 

In his 10 years with the Seahawks, they were No. 2 in blocked kicks, and last year the 49ers improved to No. 15 in special teams DVOA from No. 26 the year prior. Harper was an assistant with the 2013-20 Eagles before joining the 2021 49ers in his current role.

Projected 49ers 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Brock Purdy
• Backups: Sam Darnold, Trey Lance
• Borderline: Brandon Allen
• Notable Turnover: Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Purdy was the final pick of the 2022 draft, but once Lance and Garoppolo were out he improbably took the team to the NFC Championship and went 7-0 as a starter on his way there. He then suffered a serious elbow injury that required surgery this offseason. 

Lynch has said that the starting job is Purdy’s to lose, and he operated the offense with Garoppolo-like efficiency as a rookie, finishing No. 4 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expected among all QBs with 250-plus plays (including playoffs, per RBs Don’t Matter), just a well-manicured hair ahead of Garoppolo at No. 5 (0.133 vs. 0.130). 

But Lynch has also said that it’s an open competition, and Purdy is far from guaranteed to be ready for the start of camp or Week 1. There’s a real chance he could lose the starting job to reclamation project Darnold (55 starts, 59.7% completion rate) or mystery box Lance (420 pass attempts since 2018). At the same time, I wouldn’t put it past Shanahan to part ways with Darnold or Lance and keep the veteran Allen, who played on the 2019 Broncos under then-OC Rich Scangarello — Shanahan’s two-time 49ers QBs coach (2017-18, 2021).

Projections as of June 12.

Running Backs

• Starter: Christian McCaffrey
• Backups: Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price
• Fullback: Kyle Juszczyk
• Notable Turnover: Jeff Wilson (Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

McCaffrey is the most talented and versatile back Shanahan has ever had, and he put up 1,509 yards and 13 touchdowns in his 14 games with the team after his midseason acquisition (including playoffs). The offense will run through him. 

Mitchell is a 2021 sixth-rounder who is the walking embodiment of the Shanahan back: He’s athletic (4.32-second 40-yard dash), was productive as a rookie despite minimal draft capital (1,100 yards from scrimmage) and then was pushed aside when Shanahan could get a runner he liked more. But he’s still a talented player who will be a good change-of-pace option. 

What Wilson was to the 2018-21 49ers, Mitchell will be a beefed-up version of for the 2023 team. Mason is a big-bodied hard-running undrafted second-year back who last year made Davis-Price a frequent gameday inactive because of his superior special teams play. As for TDP, the 2022 third-rounder could be a preseason cut à la Trey Sermon last year if he doesn’t impress in camp. 

Juszczyk has made the Pro Bowl in each of the past seven seasons and is a versatile player who can run block, pass block and run routes from all over the formation. He’s underappreciated spice in Shanahan’s secret sauce.

Projections as of June 12.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings
• WR Backups: Ray-Ray McCloud, Danny Gray
• TE Starter: George Kittle
• TE Backups: Cameron Latu, Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley
• Borderline: WR Ronnie Bell, TE Brayden Willis
• Notable Turnover: TE Tyler Kroft (Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Samuel is yet to play every game in any season or demonstrate weekly consistency as a receiver, but he’s an all-around playmaker with 4,012 scrimmage yards through four seasons and elite marks of 9.5 yards per target and 6.4 yards per carry. 

Aiyuk is a 2020 first-rounder who came into his own last year with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns receiving. On a different team — one without Samuel and with a pass-happy play-caller — Aiyuk would have star potential. 

Jennings is a big-bodied 2020 seventh-rounder who plays as a powerless power slot. Last year he hit the 50-yard mark just once and scored only one touchdown. McCloud is a journeyman rotational receiver who makes his living as a returner. Gray is a 2022 third-rounder who saw little action (32 routes) last year as a perimeter deep threat (24.5-yard average depth of target) and did almost nothing with his opportunities (10 yards on six targets). He could lose his roster spot if seventh-round rookie Bell impresses in camp.

Jan 22, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates after a play during the fourth quarter of an NFC divisional round game against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Kittle is the consummate two-way tight end. He’s a true run-blocking asset, and the only tight end with more than Kittle’s 4,739 yards receiving since 2018 (when he had his Pro Bowl breakout campaign) is Travis Kelce. 

Latu was a four-star edge prospect who converted to tight end at Alabama and had a serviceable 56-377-12 receiving in his two seasons as a regular contributor. The third-round rookie is likely to replace Kroft as the No. 2 TE and could develop into a red-zone weapon. Woerner is a 2020 sixth-rounder with just 88 yards in three years — but he played ahead of veteran Dwelley at the end of last season. Either one could lose his roster spot to seventh-round rookie Willis, who has TE/H-back versatility and was the No. 2 pass catcher last year for Oklahoma with 39-514-7 receiving.

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Burford, RT Colton McKivitz
• Backups: OT Jaylon Moore, C/G Jon Feliciano, T/G Matt Pryor, G Nick Zakelj
• Notable Turnover: RT Mike McGlinchey (Broncos), G/C Daniel Brunskill (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Williams is a 10-time Pro Bowler with first-team All-Pro accolades in each of the past two seasons. He’s the bright but lone jewel in an otherwise no-name crown. Banks is a 2021 second-rounder whose play last year in his first season as a starter (59.5 PFF grade) is incommensurate with his draft position. If he doesn’t improve in camp, he could lose his job. 

Brendel is an undrafted backup journeyman who signed with the 49ers in 2020 and finally earned a starting gig in 2022 at the age of 30. He’s a moderately above-average pass blocker (he allowed just 14 pressures last year), but he’s not a franchise pivot. Burford is a 2022 fourth-rounder who fell into a starting job last year and played like a Day 3 rookie. Like Banks and Brendel, he’s vulnerable to a challenger. 

McKivitz is a 2020 fifth-rounder with five NFL starts (three at RG, two at LT). It’s assumed that he’ll replace McGlinchey as the Week 1 RT because the 49ers gave him a two-year extension and made him the No. 2 tackle on the team by compensation with a guaranteed $1.87 million at signing, but he’s yet to distinguish himself with his play.

Moore is a 2021 fifth-rounder who actually has played ahead of McKivitz in each of the past two years. With two serviceable LT spot starts last year in place of an injured Williams, he has a chance to beat out McKivitz in camp for the RT job. Feliciano has been a starter over the past four years at each of the interior spots (RG for the 2019-20 Bills, LG for the 2021 Bills, C for the 2022 NYG). He’s an experienced league-average lineman capable of replacing Brunskill as the top interior backup — but he also has a shot to steal a starting job from Banks, Brendel and Burford. 

Pryor is a below-average talent, but he has made 24 starts over the past three years for the 2020 Eagles and 2021-22 Colts, and he has the versatility to play both tackle and guard spots. Zakelj is a 2022 sixth-rounder who played 12 snaps last year. If no one sits on the bench, what’s the point of having a bench?

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Nick Bosa, Drake Jackson
• EDGE Backups: Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Robert Beal
• DT Starters: Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave
• DT Backups: Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens, Kerry Hyder
• Borderline: EDGE Darryl Johnson, DTs T.Y. McGill, Kalia Davis
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu & Jordan Willis, DTs Hassan Ridgeway (Texans), Akeem Spence (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Bosa won Defensive Rookie of the Year as a 2019 first-rounder, and last year he won Defensive Player of the Year with a league-high 18.5 sacks. He’s the one difference-maker in an otherwise empty edge group. 

Jackson is a 2022 second-rounder who rotated in as an underproductive rookie (just 16 pressures) but now will need to step up as a starter to replace the departed Ebukam, Omenihu and Willis. Ferrell was over-drafted four years ago by the Raiders at No. 4 overall, and he has never had more than five sacks in a season, but he’s a fine addition as a rotational rusher, and maybe the 49ers will be able to unlock his upside. 

Bryant is a fifth-year fourth-rounder who has never had a PFF grade of even 55.0 and couldn’t consistently crack the Lions rotation last year. He’s no lock for the roster, and I expect him ultimately to be overtaken in the rotation by Beal, an upside fifth-round rookie with elite pedigree (five-star recruit who played at Georgia) and athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 247 pounds) and sufficient production (nine sacks in 2021-22 for the two-time National Champions). Johnson has played little over the past two years, but he was a basic back-end-of-the-rotation player for the 2019-20 Bills, and he has the potential to push Bryant or Beal off the roster with a strong camp.

Armstead has played the entirety of his eight-year career for the 49ers, who took him in Round 1 of the 2015 draft. He has played edge most, and in 2021 he was a true tweener splitting time between the interior and perimeter, but last year he settled in at tackle and played well. He has never been named to a Pro Bowl, but he has consistently been an above-average pass rusher and is as important to this defensive line as anyone except for Bosa. 

Hargrave was a great offseason acquisition: He had 22 sacks over the past two years with the Eagles (including playoffs), and he has the size to line up at nose (where he played early in his career with the Steelers) and the athleticism to play over the tackle (where he lined up a career-high 222 snaps last season). Kinlaw is a 2020 first-rounder who has disappointed as a three-year starter: He has never had a PFF run-defense grade of 50.0 or pass-rushing grade of 60.0. But now as a second-stringer, he could have more relative success with diminished expectations. 

Givens joined the 49ers as an undrafted rookie in 2019, and he has given the team consistent though subpar rotational snaps for three years. He’s vulnerable, as is Hyder, who started for the 49ers in 2020 and had a career-high nine sacks, after which he went to Seattle for a year only to return in 2022 as a backup. McGill (undrafted vet who third-stringed for 49ers last year) and Davis (2022 sixth-rounder who redshirted because of injury) could both push Givens and Hyder for their roster spots.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw
• Backups: Oren Burks, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
• Borderline: Marcelino McCrary-Ball, Dee Winters, Jalen Graham
• Notable Turnover: Azeez Al-Shaair (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Warner has been a first-team All-Pro twice in his five-year career and is probably the best off-ball linebacker in the league. He excels in coverage and against the run. Greenlaw is a 2019 fifth-rounder who has been Warner’s running mate for the past four seasons. He’s an above-average defender coming off a career year with 125 tackles (including playoffs). 

Burks is a second-contract veteran who had a career-high 78.9 PFF grade in his first year with the team. He looks like the frontrunner to replace Al-Shaair as the No. 3 LB. Flannigan-Fowles is a depth linebacker and core special teamer who has been with the team since he entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2009. If the 49ers decide to go with only four LBs, he’ll be competing with undrafted 2022 practice-squader McCrary-Ball and Day 3 rookies Winter and Graham for one spot.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Isaiah Oliver
• CB Backups: Samuel Womack, Darrell Luter
• S Starters: Talanoa Hufanga, Tashaun Gipson
• S Backups: Ji'Ayir Brown, Myles Hartsfield, George Odum
• Borderline: CB Ambry Thomas
• Notable Turnover: CB Emmanuel Moseley (Lions), S/CB Jimmie Ward (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Ward entered the league as an undrafted corner in 2018, but he earned a starting job with the championship-winning 2019 Chiefs and has been manning the perimeter since. He has allowed a completion rate of just 54.3% through five years and had a career-best 76.6 PFF coverage grade last season in his first campaign with the 49ers. A near-elite run defender with iron-fisted tackling skills, he’s an odd but livable No. 1 CB. 

Lenoir is a 2021 fifth-rounder who began last season in the slot but transitioned to the perimeter in Week 6 after Moseley was lost for the year. He stepped up in a big way to give the team 1,072 snaps (including playoffs) — but he has had sub-60.0 PFF coverage grades in both NFL seasons. 

Oliver is a 2018 second-rounder who started for the Falcons for the past four years. While he initially struggled on the perimeter, he has found a home in the slot and has allowed just 5.7 yards per target since 2021. He’s the frontrunner to replace Ward as the team’s primary slot defender, although he’ll face competition from Womack, who did yeoman’s work last year as a fifth-round rookie special teamer and backup corner. 

Luter is a small-school press-man Day 3 rookie who will compete for a roster spot with 2021 third-rounder Thomas, who has been exposed in limited usage (10.3 yards per target).

Hufanga was a ball-hawking 2020 All-American in his final season at USC, but athletic concerns (4.61-second 40-yard dash) caused him to fall to Day 3, where the 49ers got a draft-day steal. After serving as the No. 3 S as a rookie, Hufanga started all 17 games last year and snagged four interceptions on his way to a first-team All-Pro campaign. He’s not yet the best SS in the league, but he’s undoubtedly in the top five. 

Gipson has been an NFL starter for literally the last decade and was an enforcer on the feared 2017 Jaguars secondary. Last season he led the 49ers with five interceptions in his first year with the team and provided strong run defense (89.9 PFF grade). 

Brown is a third-round rookie who was slow at the combine (4.65-second 40-yard dash) but productive in his two starting seasons at Penn State (10 interceptions, 147 tackles). He should be able to earn the No. 3 job ahead of Hartsfield, an undrafted veteran who spent the past three years with the Panthers bouncing between the slot and safety and playing special teams. Odum played only 58 defensive snaps in 2022 in his first season with the team, but he’s likely to make the roster because of his special teams prowess (90.5 PFF grade last year).

Specialists

• Kicker: Jake Moody
• Punter: Mitch Wishnowsky
• Holder: Mitch Wishnowsky
• Long Snapper: Taybor Pepper
• Kick Returner: Ray-Ray McCloud
• Punt Returner: Ray-Ray McCloud
• Borderline: K Zane Gonzalez
• Notable Turnover: K Robbie Gould (free agent)

Moody is a third-round rookie who won the Lou Groza Award in 2021 as the best kicker in college and had an FBS-high 29 field goals in 2022. The second he booted a 59-yarder to close the second quarter against TCU on New Year’s Eve in the College Football Playoff, he was destined to be drafted on Day 2. If he has a bad camp, he could lose his job to the veteran Gonzalez, who had a 90.9% field goal rate with the Panthers when he last played in 2021 — but Moody should be able to beat him out as the replacement to Gould, who had been with the 49ers for all of the Shanahan era.  

Wishnowsky has been with the 49ers since 2019, when they made him an early Day 3 pick. Last year he was No. 1 in the league with 52.5% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Pepper has been long snapping for the 49ers for three years, and they gave him a three-year extension this offseason: I guess they like him. McCloud was No. 3 among all regular punt returners with 10.8 yards per return last year in his first season with the team, and for his career he has 22.6 yards per return on kicks.

San Francisco 49ers schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the 49ers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 3
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 10-15
• Opponents: at JAX, vs. TB, at SEA, at PHI, vs. SEA, at ARI

Despite going to the NFC Championship in three of the past four years, the 49ers have the third-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, thanks primarily to playing in the NFC West. But they do have a couple of circumstantially tough spots with three separate back-to-back road stretches, one of which falls in the middle of Weeks 10-15, when they have two adjoining 3-of-4 away stints (A-H-A-A-H-A).

Entering the Week 9 bye, they have a tough slate of games (vs. DAL, at CLE, at MIN, vs. CIN), and then out of the bye they travel east for an early game against the Jaguars, who are also coming off the bye. 

In Week 11, they get their one “gimme” of this run — a home matchup against the Buccaneers, which looks like a classic “trap game.” After that, they have back-to-back road games: at Seattle against the division rival Seahawks in primetime on Thanksgiving and then back East to Philadelphia for an NFC Championship rematch with the Eagles. 

For Week 14, the 49ers head back home for a quick-turnaround rematch with the Seahawks, who have three extra days of rest. Then the 49ers have a road rematch against the division rival Cardinals, who will probably be bad this season — but who will also be coming off the bye and could have QB Kyle Murray back as the starter.

In this six-game stretch, the 49ers have four road games, four games against playoff opponents, three games in the division, and two games with a rest disadvantage — and they don’t even get a rest advantage coming out of their bye.

If the 49ers fail to repeat as NFC West champions, it will likely be because they struggled in this stretch.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

• Shanahan picks the wrong QB to start the year.
• Wilks wilts.
• Purdy plays like a seventh-rounder, Darnold plays like a first-round bust, and Lance plays like a guy with just 420 pass attempts since high school.
• McCaffrey suffers a significant injury and Mitchell can’t carry the load as the lead back.
• Samuel is hobbled by an accumulation of bumps and bruises, and Aiyuk regresses from his career-best 2022 season.
• Kittle sees his receiving production drop because the team needs to use him more as a blocker.
• Williams declines in his age-35 season and the rest of the offensive line collapses under the weight of its mediocrity.
• Jackson, Ferrell, and Bryant prove to be inadequate replacements for Ebukam, Omenihu and Willis.
• Ward has an inconsistent season, Lenoir fails to outplay his draft capital, and Oliver makes the 49ers wish that they’d re-signed Ward.
• Moody walks the path of Roberto Aguayo.
• 49ers lose a Week 18 “win-and-in” home game against the Rams and miss the playoffs with an 8-9 record in a surprisingly tough NFC West.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

• Shanahan picks the right QB — because it doesn’t matter which one he picks — because his scheme and play sequencing create a QB-proof offense.
• Wilks thrives.
• Purdy becomes the guy that Shanahan always wanted Garoppolo to be.
• McCaffrey crushes, and Mitchell becomes one of the league’s best change-of-pace backs.
• Samuel channels his 2021 first-team All-Pro form, and Aiyuk takes another step forward.
• Kittle has his third 1,000-yard performance.
• Williams has yet another Pro Bowl campaign, and the rest of the offensive line keeps Purdy upright.
• Jackson, Ferrell and Bryant all have slightly above-average seasons.
• Ward is steady as the top corner, Lenoir marginally improves and Oliver locks down the slot with physical play.
• Moody misses only one kick within the 40-yard line all year.
• 49ers earn the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, sneak out tight home victories against the Cowboys and Eagles in the playoffs and then avenge their Super Bowl 54 loss by beating the Chiefs in the final game of the season with a last-minute game-winning drive by Purdy that culminates with a 51-yard Moody field goal as time expires.

In-season 49ers betting angles

I view the 49ers as a slight “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage as an underdog or on the road based on the following trends.

• Shanahan as Underdog: 29-20 ATS (14.6% ROI)
• Shanahan on Road: 32-25 ATS (8.8% ROI)

Shanahan has done especially well against Rams HC Sean McVay, who worked under Shanahan on the 2010-13 Redskins.

• Shanahan vs. McVay: 10-3 ATS (46.5% ROI)
• Shanahan vs. McVay: 9-4 ML (46.1% ROI)

The 49ers play the division-rival Rams in Weeks 2 and 18.

If I were to identify a point on the calendar when I might bet against the 49ers, Week 1 would be a possibility.

• Shanahan in Week 1: 1-5 ATS (61.0% ROI for faders)
• Shanahan in Week 1: 2-4 ML (57.1% ROI for faders)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason 49ers betting market to exploit

I don’t want to bet on the 49ers in the offseason when we don’t know who their Week 1 QB is, but I also don’t want to bet against Shanahan, who has shown the ability to make his offense work with almost any passer.

So I’m staying away from the team’s futures markets right now. Instead, I’ll look to the MVP market.

Brock Purdy MVP +5000 (PointsBet)

It’s gross, I know — but that’s why +5000 at PointsBet is a value.

Purdy is already far enough along in his recovery from elbow surgery to be throwing the football. He has a real chance to be ready for Week 1, and his GM has named him the frontrunner for the starting job.

Minus the NFC Championship, when he was injured on the first drive, he was 7-0 last year (including playoffs) as a seventh-round third-string rookie thrust into the starting role in Week 14.

In his seven full games — from Week 14 to the Divisional Round — Purdy was No. 1 among all QBs with a 0.161 composite EPA + CPOE (per RBs Don’t Matter). Applied to the regular season, Purdy’s seven-game mark would’ve been No. 2, behind only Patrick Mahomes at 0.178.

In Shanahan’s offense, Purdy has a chance to be electrically efficient, especially with the elite playmakers he has around him.

And with their soft strength of schedule, the 49ers have the potential to win 12-plus games and earn the No. 1 seed.

Despite the long odds, this bet doesn’t require a massive leap of faith — because just last year the 49ers won 13 games, and we’ve already seen Purdy play well for a not-insignificant stretch.

If we get to the last quarter of the season and the 49ers are in the lead for the No. 1 seed in the NFC with Purdy playing well, the “Mr. Irrelevant” narrative combined with the “he’s returning from injury” angle — as well as potential Mahomes fatigue — will make Purdy a live candidate for MVP and drive his market down.

He’s not likely to win MVP. That’s why he’s +5000. But I think he’s likelier to win the award than his 1.96% implied probability suggests.

You can tail the Purdy bet on PointsBet, where you can also get two risk-free bets of up to $2,000 when you sign up below!