2023 Seattle Seahawks Betting Preview

The Seattle Seahawks entered last season with basement-level expectations after trading away franchise QB and potential Hall-of-Famer Russell Wilson — and then the team went 9-8 and made the playoffs. What looked like a long-time rebuild turned out to be a short-term renovation.

This year, with a renewed offense and revived defense, the Seahawks hope to challenge for the NFC West and make a postseason push that might just end with another Super Bowl victory for HC Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider.  

In this 2023 Seahawks preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Seahawks preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of July 9. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of July 9. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of July 9.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of 7/9.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of July 9.

General Manager and Head Coach

• Executive VP/General Manager: John Schneider
• Exec. VP of Football Operations/Head Coach: Pete Carroll
• Team Power Rating: +1
• Team Power Ranking: No. 13
• Coach Ranking: No. 10

Schneider has been the GM since 2010, joining the team in that role exactly one week after the Seahawks hired HC Pete Carroll. Together, the two of them — as the two executive VPs on the team — oversee everything to do with football.

With their developed power-sharing structure, they have had sustained success with 10 winning seasons, seven Divisional Round appearances, five NFC West titles, two Super Bowl appearances and one NFL championship.

Before becoming GM, Schneider worked his way up the personnel ranks of the Packers (1993-96, 2002-09), Chiefs (1997-99), Seahawks (2000) and Redskins (2001). Starting out as a scout, he had the opportunity to work under some legendary talent evaluators in GM Ron Wolf (scout), GM Carl Peterson (director of pro personnel), HC/GM Mike Holmgren (director of player personnel), HC/GM Marty Schottenheimer (VP of player personnel) and GM Ted Thompson (top personnel analyst, then director of football operations).

Schneider’s record is far from perfect. Trading two first-rounders and a third-rounder for SS Jamal Adams was all sorts of wrong. And the Seahawks have demonstrated a long-established disregard for the value of their first-round picks based on the players and positions they’ve drafted (2016 G Germain Ifedi, 2018 RB Rashaad Penny, 2019 DL L.J. Collier, 2020 LB Jordyn Brooks).

But Schneider has consistently been able to find contributors outside the top two rounds — the team famously selected Wilson in Round 3 — and his decision to trade Wilson last offseason looks like a franchise-defining move that has paid off, given the draft capital (two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder), salary savings and strong play from QB Geno Smith that the team has received as a result.

Schneider isn’t an elite GM, but he’s top-10 at his job, as is Carroll. It’s a short list of people who have won a championship in college and the NFL as HC: Paul Brown (Ohio State, Browns), Jimmy Johnson (Miami, Cowboys), Barry Switzer (Oklahoma, Cowboys) and Carroll (USC, Seahawks).

That’s two Hall-of-Famers, one second wife and then Carroll, who has the age of a septuagenarian but the energy and ambition of a twentysomething. Even as the oldest HC in the league, Carroll could conceivably coach another five seasons, and based on his performance last year it looks like the game hasn’t passed him by.

Although Carroll was opposed to letting Russ cook in Seattle — and Wilson’s 2022 play suggests that perhaps the coach was right to keep the QB out of the kitchen — the Seahawks last year jumped from No. 24 to No. 5 in early-down pass rate, from -3% to +6% in pass frequency over expected on 1st-and-10 and No. 32 to No. 12 in fourth-down aggressiveness (per RBs Don’t Matter).

Not unlike a fresh divorcée on a Mediterranean cruise, Carroll has gotten his groove back: He’s opening up and letting the offense go for it.

A DBs coach by trade, Carroll has enjoyed strong defense for most of his Seahawks tenure — but the unit did rank No. 25 in scoring last year. This year, though, I’d expect a bounceback as a result of the talent the team has added over the past two offseasons. We’re not likely to see another Legion of Boom, but the Seahawks were No. 11 in defensive scoring in 2021, and a return to the top 12 is possible.

Despite turning 72 years old this season, Carroll is still living the dream, and the dream is getting better.

Pete Carroll coaching record

• Years: 13
• Playoffs: 10
• Division Titles: 5
• Super Bowls: 2
• Championships: 1
• Win Total Record: 8-4
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +1
• Regular Season: 128-81-1 (.612)
• Playoff Record: 10-9 (.526)
• Against the Spread: 117-104-8 (3.3% ROI)
• Moneyline: 138-90-1 (7.6% ROI)
• Over/Under: 117-108-4 (1.3% ROI, Over)

Seahawks only. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Shane Waldron
• Offensive Playcaller: Shane Waldron
• Associate HC: Carl Smith
• Senior Offensive Assistant: Nate Carroll
• OL Coach: Andy Dickerson
• QBs Coach: Greg Olson
• Run Game Coordinator/RBs Coach: Chad Morton
• Passing Game Coordinator/WRs Coach: Sanjay Lal
• TEs Coach: Pat McPherson
• Notable Turnover: QBs Coach Dave Canales (Buccaneers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Waldron joined the Seahawks as their OC in 2021 after 19 years in various roles with one high school team, one UFL team, two college teams and three NFL teams. As a former OL, WRs and TEs coach, Waldron has a well-rounded sense of offensive perspectives, and his time with Bill Belichick (2002-04, 2008-09 Patriots) and especially Sean McVay (2016 Redskins, 2017-20 Rams) has endowed him with an uncommon football education.

While his first season with Russell Wilson was mediocre (No. 16 in scoring), his work with Geno Smith last year (No. 9) was unexpectedly stellar. If he can build on last year’s success, he’ll likely be a coveted HC candidate in 2024.

Smith theoretically reports to Carroll, but his background is in offense. He first worked with Carroll on the Patriots (1997 assistant HC/QBs coach, 1998-99 TEs coach) and then served as his QBs coach twice (2004 USC, 2011-17 Seahawks) before shifting to associate HC in 2018, leaving and then returning in 2021 to resume his role. He knows Carroll — and what Carroll wants on offense — as well as anyone.

Nate Carroll — son of Pete — has spent his entire career with the Seahawks (since 2010) and had six different jobs with the team. He moved to senior offensive assistant last year after a four-year stint as WRs coach.

Sep 25, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) jumps over a tackle attempt by Atlanta Falcons cornerback Casey Hayward (29) during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Dickerson is Waldron’s guy: They were college teammates at Tufts in 1999-2002. They worked together on the 2004 Patriots. And then they reunited on the Rams (2017-20), for whom Dickerson served as an assistant OL coach for nine years (2012-20) after working for the Jets (2006-08, 2011) and Browns (2009-10).

When Waldron took the Seahawks OC job, he brought Dickerson with him as run game coordinator and then made him the OL coach after a year. As a longtime assistant, Dickerson worked with some strong lines.

Olson joins the Seahawks as the QBs replacement for Canales, who leveraged his Geno-based accomplishments last year into the Buccaneers OC position. A longtime coach, Olson has had limited success in his six (SIX!) different stints as an NFL OC, but he has gotten so many OC shots because he has done well in his six (now seven) different QBs coach gigs, the most recent of which was with the 2017 Rams, where he worked with Waldron and guided second-year QB Jared Goff out of the trauma of his 0-7 rookie campaign.   

Morton was a seven-year NFL RB and return man who coached with the Packers (2009-2013) — he overlapped with Schneider for a year (2009) — before joining the Seahawks in 2014 as an assistant. He has been the team’s RBs coach since 2017 and added the title of run game coordinator last year. In his six years overseeing RBs, the Seahawks have been top-12 in rushing yards four times.

Lal has been in the NFL since 2007 and a WRs coach for the supermajority of that time for seven teams. He first joined the Seahawks in 2020 as the senior offensive assistant and returned to the team last season in his present role after serving a one-year sentence as the WRs coach in Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville penitentiary. It was under Lal that WRs Sammy Watkins (2015) and Amari Cooper (2018-19) had the best years of their careers.

McPherson is an original hire of Carroll’s. He joined the Seahawks in 2010 as the TEs coach after working for the Broncos under HC Mike Shanahan for 11 years (1998-2008), first as an assistant and then as QBs coach (2003-06) and TEs coach (2007-08).

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator/DL Coach (Unofficial): Clint Hurtt
• Pass Rush Specialist: B.T. Jordan
• Assistant DL/DTs Coach: Damione Lewis
• LBs Coach: John Glenn
• Passing Game Coordinator/DBs Coach: Karl Scott
• Secondary Coach: Roy Anderson
• Notable Turnover: Assoc. HC/Def. Assistant Sean Desai (Eagles), assistant DL/DEs Coach Aaron Curry (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Hurtt is a DL coach by trade, and he joined the Seahawks in 2017 in that role (as well as assistant HC) before replacing Ken Norton as DC last year. Although he no longer carries the title of DL coach, the Seahawks don’t have anyone officially in that role… but last year they had two assistant DL coaches, and this year they have one assistant DL coach (Lewis, who specializes in DTs) and one pass rush specialist (Jordan, who specializes in EDGEs). So Hurtt is essentially still the DL coach, but he’s offloading a lot of the work to Lewis and Jordan, who might be competing for the top DL job next year.

Glenn joined the Seahawks in 2012 as a special teams assistant and worked his way up from there, serving as quality control coach (2014-15), defensive assistant (2016) and assistant LBs coach (2017) before ascending to LBs coach in 2018. The Seahawks have had a routinely strong LB group under Glenn.

Scott is a longtime college DBs coach who leveraged a successful stint at Alabama (2018-20) into a job with the Vikings (2021 DBs coach) before he joined the Seahawks last year in his current role. Joining him this year is Anderson, who was his assistant DBs coach on the Vikings. Anderson is a pseudo replacement for Desai (now the Eagles DC), who was the defensive Assoc. HC last year and a likely advisor to Scott, given Desai’s background as a safeties coach.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• assistant HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Larry Izzo
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Tracy Smith

Izzo was a three-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl winner across his 14-year NFL career as a special teamer, and he has been coaching special teams in the league since 2011, first with the Giants (2011-15 assistant coordinator) and then the Texans (2016-17 coordinator) before joining the Seahawks in 2018. After serving as an assistant in his first two years, Izzo stepped up to be the interim coordinator right before the 2020 season started whenever Brian Schneider took a leave of absence, and he was named the permanent coordinator in 2021. The Seahawks have been top-five in special teams DVOA in two of Izzo’s three years as coordinator. Smith has been Izzo’s assistant since 2021, before which he was the coordinator for the 2020 Texans.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Geno Smith
• Backups: Drew Lock, Holton Ahlers
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Geno Smith is a 32-year-old journeyman who won 2022 Comeback Player of the Year after leading the Seahawks to the playoffs and leading the league with a 69.8% completion rate, which he leveraged into 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns passing.

It has been a long time coming for Smith, who opened his career as a starter for the Jets (2013-14) before literally being punched into a backup role for the next seven years (2015-16 Jets, 2017 Giants, 2018 Chargers, 2019-21 Seahawks). Smith signed a three-year deal with $40M guaranteed this offseason and has a real opportunity to create a future for himself with the team. 

Drew Lock was part of the Wilson trade and was expected to compete for the starting job with Smith — but it wasn’t much of a competition. In his three seasons with the Broncos, he completed 59.3% of his passes for 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt. He returns to the Seahawks for a second season as the kind of backup the team hopes never to start.

Holton Ahlers is an undrafted free agent rookie who started 50 games for East Carolina and completed 67.2% of his passes last year.

Projections as of July 9.

Running Backs

• Starter: Kenneth Walker
• Backups: Zach Charbonnet, DeeJay Dallas, Kenny McIntosh
• Fullback: Nick Bellore
• Notable Turnover: Rashaad Penny (Eagles), Travis Homer (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Kenneth Walker is a 2022 second-rounder who had a lot of subpar carries last year — he ranked No. 41 in success rate out of 42 runners with 100-plus carries (per Football Outsiders) — but he also had 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns rushing on a respectable 4.6 yards per carry.

He’s not flawless, but with his size (5-foot-9 and 211 pounds) and athleticism (4.38-second 40-yard dash) Walker has the potential for a Jonathan Taylor-like second-season breakout.

Zach Charbonnet is a four-star second-round rookie who could combine with Walker to form a robust rumble-and-thunder backfield. In his final two seasons at UCLA, he had 3,014 yards and 27 touchdowns from scrimmage in 22 games, and he could see regular work right away as a pass catcher (61-518-0 receiving in 2021-22).

DeeJay Dallas is a 2020 fourth-rounder who plays on special teams and rotates in as a third-down back: He’s a league-average pass blocker and catcher.

Kenny McIntosh is a four-star seventh-round rookie who has WR size (6-foot and 204 pounds) and a three-down RB skill set (149-829-10 rushing, 43-505-2 receiving in 2022) but FB athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash).

Nick Bellore is a 34-year-old LB-to-FB convert who has played only 116 offensive snaps for the Seahawks since joining the team in 2019 but has crushed as a special teams contributor (2020 Pro Bowler).

Projections as of July 9.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• WR Backups: D'Wayne Eskridge, Dareke Young
• TE Starter: Noah Fant
• TE Backups: Will Dissly, Colby Parkinson
• Notable Turnover: WRs Marquise Goodwin (Browns) and Laquon Treadwell (Ravens)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

DK Metcalf is a 25-year-old alpha beast with Calvin Johnson-like athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 228 pounds) and 306-4,218-35 receiving in his first four seasons with the Seahawks.

Tyler Lockett is an always-underrated third-contract Seahawks lifer with outside/inside versatility and 5,284 yards and 45 touchdowns receiving over the past half decade. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a 21-year-old five-star first-round rookie who missed most of 2022 to an injury but dominated in 2021 with 1,606 yards receiving for Ohio State. With his elite agility (6.57-second three-cone, 3.93-second 20-yard shuttle), he could be a lethal and immediate slot producer.

D'Wayne Eskridge is a 2021 second-rounder whose failure to live up to his draft status (191 scrimmage yards through two seasons) is the reason the team drafted Smith-Njigba. He has good speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) to stretch the seam in the slot but not much else. Young is a small-school 2022 seventh-rounder with the size (6-foot-2 and 224 pounds) to play on the perimeter and the willingness to contribute on special teams. 

Noah Fant joined the Seahawks last year via the Wilson trade. A 2019 first-rounder, he has an elite physical profile (4.5-second 40-yard dash, 6.81-second three-cone at 6-foot-4 and 249 pounds) and a respectable 2,391 yards receiving through four years — but he’s a run-blocking nonentity.

Will Dissly is a 28-year-old second-contract coach’s favorite thanks to his enthusiasm as a run and pass blocker and his overlooked ability as a receiver: He has never had even 350 yards for the Seahawks in his five-year career, but his 82.1% catch rate and 9.3 yards per target highlight his elite efficiency.

Colby Parkinson is a 2020 fourth-rounder who is another version of Dissly with his above-average blocking and opportunistic pass catching (9.5 yards per target on 34 targets last year). He logged a career-high 486 snaps last year as a heavy rotational player in two-TE sets.

Projections as of July 9.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Charles Cross, LG Damien Lewis, C Evan Brown, RG Phil Haynes, RT Abraham Lucas
• Backups: OT Stone Forsythe, G/T Anthony Bradford, C Olusegun Oluwatimi, T/G Jake Curhan
• Notable Turnover: RG Gabe Jackson (free agent), Cs Austin Blythe (retired) and Kyle Fuller (Broncos)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Charles Cross is a five-star first-team All-SEC 2022 first-rounder who started all 18 games at LT as a rookie and steadily improved throughout the campaign. He has the potential to develop into an All-Pro blindside protector.

Lewis is a 2020 third-rounder who came into his own last season with just 21 pressures allowed on 637 pass rushes. Brown is a 26-year-old journeyman who joined the Seahawks this offseason on a one-year deal after starting 24 games for the Lions the past two seasons. He isn’t guaranteed a starting role, but he has C/G versatility and might be able to push for the RG spot if he doesn’t win the job as Blythe’s replacement. 

Haynes is a 2019 fourth-rounder who re-signed with the team on a one-year contract. He started only three games last year, but he regularly rotated in with Jackson, whom the Seahawks let leave in free agency.

Haynes isn’t a massive liability, but he’s also an average-at-best blocker who will need to earn the starting job. Lucas is a 2022 third-rounder who started 17 games at RT as a rookie and allowed just 30 pressures on 633 pass rushes and was average as a run blocker, which is way better than draftniks thought he would be coming out of a spread offense.

Forsythe is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has been bad in the running game and worse in the passing game in spot action at RT. Bradford is a four-star fourth-round rookie who started multiple games for LSU at LT and RG in his final two seasons. He has good athleticism (5.08-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 332 pounds) and could push Haynes for a starting job.

Oluwatimi is an All-American fifth-round rookie who won the 2022 Rimington and Outland Trophies as the top center and top interior lineman on either side of the ball in college football. Despite his Day 3 draft capital, he could start in Week 1.

Curhan has the theoretical ability to man RT and both guard spots, but — like Forsythe — he’s bad as a run blocker and abysmal as a pass protector (22 pressures on 226 pass rushes).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor
• EDGE Backups: Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, Alton Robinson
• DT Starters: Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed
• DT Backups: Myles Adams, Cameron Young, Mike Morris, Mario Edwards
• IR/PUP: Bryan Mone (knee)
• Borderline: EDGE Tyreke Smith, DT Jonah Tavai
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Bruce Irvin (free agent) and Darryl Johnson (49ers), DTs Poona Ford (Bills), Quinton Jefferson (Jets), Shelby Harris (free agent) and Al Woods (Jets), DL L.J. Collier (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Nwosu signed a two-year deal with the Seahawks last season, and he delivered with a career-high 952 snaps, 62 pressures and 10 sacks. An above-average pass rusher and run defender, he will lock up a longer-term contract with another strong campaign. Taylor is a 2020 second-rounder with 17 sacks in two years but no PFF run grade of even 50. 

Hall is a four-star second-round rookie with great athleticism (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 254 pounds) and good production (16 sacks in final two seasons). The team hopes he’ll be an upgrade on Irvin.

Mafe is a 2022 second-rounder who was much better as a run defender (69.6 PFF grade) than pass rusher (53.0 PFF grade) last year. Robinson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who missed all of last year with a knee injury. He’ll likely compete for a roster spot with Smith, a 2022 fifth-rounder who also missed 2022.

Jones is the headliner of a new cohort brought in to replace almost the entirety of last year’s defensive interior. Capable of lining up in the B gap, over tackle or on the edge, Jones racked up 23 sacks in his first four years with the Broncos — but he’s a subpar run defender.

Reed is a 30-year-old prodigal who played the first five seasons of his career with the Seahawks and has now returned after back-to-back one-year stints with the Chiefs and Packers. He’s mediocre in both phases, but he can play some at nose as a fill-in for Mone, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 15 and could start the year on PUP. 

Adams is a 2020 UDFA who over the past two years has given the Seahawks subpar run defense (no PFF grade of even 55) but a quality pass rush (seven pressures on 121 opportunities). Young is a fourth-round rookie who profiles most as an A-gap run defender but marginal-at-best pass rusher (two sacks in five college seasons).

Morris is a four-star fifth-round rookie who won Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year with 7.5 sacks in 2022. He offers some inside/outside versatility, as does Edwards, who joins the Seahawks as a 29-year-old journeyman now on his seventh team. He offers little as a pass rusher (21 sacks in eight years), but he has routinely had PFF run-blocking grades above 65. Edwards might be in competition for a roster spot with Tavai, a rookie UDFA with 14 tackles for loss in back-to-back college seasons.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Bobby Wagner, Devin Bush
• Backups: Jon Rhattigan, Vi Jones
• IR/PUP: Jordyn Brooks (knee) 
• Borderline: Cam Bright
• Notable Turnover: Cody Barton (Commanders), Tanner Muse (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Wagner — who played the first 10 years of his career with the Seahawks — returns home after a one-year dalliance with the rival Rams. A six-time first-team All-Pro and likely Hall-of-Famer, Wagner had 140 tackles, six sacks, five passes defended and two interceptions in 2022.

Even at the age of 33, Wagner still has it. Bush will likely start the season for Brooks (212 tackles over past since 2021), who suffered a torn ACL in Week 17 and could open the year on PUP. A 25-year-old former first-rounder, Bush underperformed in his first four seasons with the Steelers, but maybe he’ll step up his game on a one-year deal next to Wagner. 

Rhattigan is a 2021 UDFA with 14 special teams tackles over the past two years. Jones and Bright are likely to compete for a roster spot. Jones is a 2022 UDFA who played 43 special teams snaps last year. Bright is a rookie UDFA with 50-plus tackles in each of his past four college seasons.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Coby Bryant
• CB Backups: Michael Jackson, Tre Brown
• S Starters: Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs
• S Backups: Julian Love, Jerrick Reed, Joey Blount
• Borderline: CB Artie Burns
• Notable Turnover: SS Ryan Neal (Buccaneers), S Josh Jones (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Woolen is a 2022 fifth-rounder who performed inconsistently in college as he transitioned from WR to CB à la Richard Sherman, but then he blew up the combine (4.26-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds) and balled out as a rookie with a league-high six interceptions on his way to the Pro Bowl.

I don’t want to overhype a Day 3 player after only one season — but he could be a foundational high-end dominator in this secondary for years, as could Witherspoon, the No. 5 pick in the 2023 draft. Witherspoon doesn’t have great size (6-foot and 181 pounds) so there’s a chance he could slide inside to the slot in nickel packages, but he has sufficient athleticism (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and is physical in coverage and run support. A four-year starter and 2022 All-American, Witherspoon could be an NFL difference maker.

Bryant is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played as the team’s primary slot defender last year. Most analysts assume that he’ll continue to see action in nickel sets — but I’m not certain that’s the case. While it’s impressive that Bryant played heavily as a Day 3 rookie, he was poor in coverage (52.2 PFF grade, 7.7 yards per target).

Jackson wasn’t much better as the perimeter corner opposite Woolen (56.8, 6.9) — but he was better. One of these guys will play alongside Woolen and Witherspoon, and I lean toward Bryant because he’s younger than Jackson (26 years old, 2019 fifth-rounder) and has more theoretical room for improvement — but I think Jackson might be the better option in the short term.

Brown is a 2021 fourth-rounder who showed potential on 255 snaps as a rookie (4.4 yards per target, 47.1% completion rate), but he played only 21 snaps last year. Burns is a 2016 first-rounder who has been living on one-year deals since his rookie contract with the Steelers expired in 2020.

Only once has he had a coverage grade lower than 60, but he played only 16 defensive snaps for the Seahawks last year in his first season with the team.

Adams — the No. 6 pick of the 2017 draft — joined the Seahawks via trade in 2020, when they sent three top-100 picks to the Jets for him. On the one hand, he’s a one-time first-team All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler. He’s an asset.

On the other hand, he missed almost all of last year with an injury and had sub-55 PFF coverage grades in his first two seasons with the team. He’s a good player, but there’s only so much impact a non-elite box safety can have on a defense — and Adams hasn’t looked elite with the Seahawks.

Diggs is a 30-year-old third-contract veteran whom the Seahawks have used in center field since trading for him in the middle of the 2019 season. An above-average pass defender and run supporter, Diggs forms a strong duo with Adams.

Love joins the Seahawks as a strong No. 3 S with 32 starts in his first four years with the Giants. He’s soft against the run but capable of playing both safety spots, and his presence on the team suggests that the Seahawks might use three safeties (instead of three corners) in nickel packages — and maybe the team will shift to more dime personnel.

Reed is a sixth-round rookie who hauled in nine interceptions in college. Blount is a 2022 UDFA who notched six special teams tackles for the Seahawks last year. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Jason Myers
• Punter: Michael Dickson
• Holder: Michael Dickson
• Long Snapper: Chris Stoll
• Kick Returner: DeeJay Dallas
• Punt Returner: DeeJay Dallas
• Notable Turnover: LS Carson Tinker (free agent)

Myers is a two-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Seahawks since 2019 after starting his career with the Jaguars (2015-17) and Jets (2018). In four years with the Seahawks, he has an 87.5% conversion rate.

Dickson was No. 7 last year with 48.5 yards per punt and has been on the team since his first-team All-Pro 2018 rookie season. Stoll is a rookie UDFA who has a clear path to the LS job as long as he doesn’t fall flat on his face: In his final season at Penn State, he won the Mannelly Award as the best LS in college football. Dallas is a middling returner with career marks of 7.3 yards per punt return and 23.0 yards per kick return. I’d expect him to face some competition. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Seahawks’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 9
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 11-16
• Opponents: at LAR, vs. SF, at DAL, at SF, vs. PHI, at TEN

The Seahawks have the league’s ninth-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, but they do have a difficult run of games in Weeks 11-16 that could derail their season.

In this stretch of games with conjoined three-of-four aways (A-H-A-A-H-A), the Seahawks travel to the Rams for a Week 11 divisional rematch and then turn around and head home to host the rival 49ers in primetime on Thanksgiving. A week later, they play the Cowboys in Dallas on Thursday Night Football, and then they travel to San Francisco for their second game against the 49ers in two weeks. For Week 15, they return to Seattle to host the Eagles, and then they travel to Tennessee for an early game against the Titans on Christmas Eve.

That’s four straight games (vs. SF, at DAL, at SF, vs. PHI) in which the Seahawks will be underdogs flanked by two road games (at LAR, at TEN), the first of which is against a divisional opponent, and the second of which is against a team that usually plays tough at home.

The Seahawks probably won’t lose all six of these games — but they could. If they do, they almost certainly won’t make the playoffs.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Seahawks.

• Carroll reverts back to his pre-2022 conservative ways and instructs Waldron to scale back the offensive intensity.
• Hurtt can’t focus on his DC duties fully because of his shadow DL responsibilities.
• Smith follows up his Comeback campaign with a “come-back-to-earth” performance.
• Walker continues to struggle with down-to-down consistency, and Charbonnet goes the way of Rashaad Penny, C.J. Prosise and Christine Michael — the last three pre-Walker RBs the Seahawks selected with top-100 picks.
• Metcalf grows frustrated throughout the season because of his diminished target volume, Lockett has his first sub-1,000-yard performance since 2017 and Smith-Njigba struggles to transition to the NFL and eventually is turned into a rotational player as the Seahawks shift back to more two-TE sets.
• Fant, Dissly and Parkinson remain meaningless.
• The offensive line is hit with multiple injuries and its lack of proven depth is exposed.
• The defensive line gets pummeled with between-the-tackles running plays and can’t stop opponents from extending drives.
• Wagner suddenly looks his age.
• Woolen regresses after his overachieving rookie season, and Witherspoon plays like a guy who was a zero-star recruit.
• Adams sucks in coverage once again.
• Seahawks go 6-11 and enter an offseason of QB purgatory, uncertain of whether Smith will be the team’s starter in 2024.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Seahawks.

• Carroll empowers Waldron to be as aggressive as possible — or at least reasonable — with the offense.
• Hurtt delegates his DL duties successfully and sees his defense finish top-12 in scoring.
• Smith makes his second straight Pro Bowl as he again leads the league in completion percentage.
• Walker and Charbonnet combine for 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage.
• Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba all have 1,000-yard campaigns in a tightly consolidated three-WR passing offense.
• Fant plays far ahead of Dissly and Parkinson as the No. 1 TE and exploits the soft coverage he faces.
• The offensive line stays healthy, Oluwatimi and Bradford win the starting C and RG jobs in training camp, and they fortify the interior of the line.
• The defensive line plays just well enough against the run not to be an outsized liability.
• Wagner is named first-team All-Pro for a seventh time.
• Woolen becomes a shutdown corner in his second season, and Witherspoon wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.
• Adams returns to form and — with the blessing of Sherman and other Seahawks alumni — officially starts calling the secondary “The Legion of Deuxm.”
• Seahawks go 13-4, get the No. 2 seed, thrash the Vikings, outlast the Cowboys and then outmuscle the 49ers in Seattle to earn their ticket to the Super Bowl, where they secure an eight-point #RevengeGame victory over the first team Carroll ever coached and the first NFL team Smith quarterbacked — the Jets.

In-season angles

I view the Seahawks as a moderate “bet on” team likely to offer value in Seattle, which shouldn’t be a surprise, given the legendary “12th Man” home-field advantage the Seahawks have.

• Carroll at Home: 62-47-3 ATS (10.7% ROI)
• Carroll at Home: 78-34 ML (13.7% ROI)

If I were to isolate a spot to fade the Seahawks, it might be against the Rams (Weeks 1 and 11).

• Carroll vs. Rams HC Sean McVay: 4-9 ATS (34.9% ROI for faders)
• Carroll vs. Rams HC Sean McVay: 5-8 ML (4.7% ROI for faders) 

But I’m not looking to bet against the Seahawks often.

Seahawks only. Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking at the season-long player prop market.

Tyler Lockett Under 6.5 TDs Receiving (-135, DraftKings)

I hate betting the under on Lockett, who has gone over with 10, 8, 10, 8 and 9 touchdowns in each of the past five seasons.

But this line is 4.5 at Caesars and 5.5 at FanDuel, so there’s line-shopping value in the 6.5 at DraftKings. Additionally, I have him projected for 5.1 touchdowns, so I see some inherent value in the under.

He turns 31 early in the year and should start to slow down at some point. And now he needs to compete with rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose stop-on-a-dime agility could make him a strong option near the goal line.

Plus, the team’s addition of RB Zach Charbonnet could signal a new commitment to the running game, which might mean fewer red-zone and end-zone targets overall for everyone on the Seahawks.

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