2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

Last year the Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered the season hoping to replicate the playoff success of their 2020 championship run and build upon the regular-season triumph of their 2021 13-win campaign.

But with pseudo-retired QB Tom Brady and without fully retired HC Bruce Arians, the Buccaneers stumbled to a losing 8-9 record and yet somehow won their division only to lose by more than two touchdowns to the Cowboys on Super Wild Card Weekend.

And now Brady is retired. Again. To pick up his mantle, the Buccaneers have tapped QB Baker Mayfield, presumably because they couldn’t reach Johnny Manziel.

A verified journeyman with his recent travels, Mayfield is like a lottery in that if he doesn’t work out some people in the town are gonna get stoned. Killed. Not high. But maybe both. If there’s enough time. (Shout out all you Shirley Jackson stans.)

This year, the Buccaneers hope to maintain their defense, improve on offense, win for a third straight season an exploitable NFC South and — just maybe — discover that all Mayfield required to become a franchise QB was a change of scenery and circumstances. Again. What they need to do, however, is embrace the pleasure of pain.

In this 2023 Buccaneers preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Buccaneers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 23. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 23. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 23.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 23

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 23.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Jason Licht
• Head Coach: Todd Bowles
• Team Power Rating: -4.75
• Team Power Ranking: No. 30
• Coach Ranking: No. 30

Licht joined the Buccaneers as GM in 2014, and now — entering his 10th season — he’s walking, living, breathing proof that if you have a vision and stick to your process in the face of mockery, criticism and sometimes reason then you can eventually find success… as long as you luck into signing Tom Brady and abandon your long-term practices.

That sounds harsh, but am I wrong?

For the record, I don’t think Licht was wrong to pivot his strategy and go all-in on the effort to win a Super Bowl immediately once he had Brady. That was the right move, and the result was a championship.

But Licht had a very clear mission when he was hired: Build through the draft. With that approach, Licht was able to find some stars. His first draft pick — WR Mike Evans at No. 7 — was a massive hit. And I’d expect a guy who rose through the scouting and player personnel ranks to be a decent evaluator of talent. (He worked with the Dolphins, Panthers, Patriots, Eagles and Cardinals in various ascending roles from 1995 to 2013.)

Jan 1, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) congratulates wide receiver Mike Evans (13) after scoring a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

But Licht also had some undeniably big misses in his first four years. Every other pick Licht made after Evans in 2014 was useless. And his next three first-round selections all disappointed to various degrees (QB Jameis Winston in 2015, CB Vernon Hargreaves in 2016, TE O.J. Howard in 2017). The Winston pick — given his sophomore regression and off-field concerns — was especially problematic.

Licht’s approach of, “I’m an expert, so trust me to get good players on our team before the entire league knows for sure that they’re good” didn’t yield positive results.

In his first six seasons, he was 34-62 (.354). Many GMs have been fired for far less. Even if you assume that his first two years shouldn’t be counted against him because he needed to clear out the mess of the previous regime and rebuild the roster, he still went 26-38 (.406) in his middle four seasons (2016-19).

In that six-year stretch, he had one winning finish, no campaigns with double-digit wins, no division titles, no playoff appearances — and three different coaches (Lovie Smith, Dirk Koetter and Bruce Arians). Most GMs in comparable situations don’t make it to their third HC. When the second one goes, they usually go, too.

That Licht survived into the 2020 offseason was a minor miracle. And then the major miracle was signing Tom Brady.

Licht deserves credit for Brady. He wooed him. He closed him. And he was with the Patriots — as a college scout — when they drafted him. Licht had a shot. He took it. And he made it. But that doesn’t change the high degree to which Licht was lucky. He was uncommonly fortunate even to have a job by the time Brady hit the market, and he was improbably blessed that Brady was on the market at all.

Even so, once Licht had Brady, he made the moves necessary to maximize the team’s championship window, and the result was a 32-18 (.064) record in the regular season, a 5-2 (0.714) record in the postseason, one Super Bowl, two division titles and three playoff appearances, even with the weirdness that was 2022. Licht pulled it out — and now his reward is to move the team into the sans-Brady future.

I’m skeptical that Licht will have sustained success without Brady. We have six years of data to suggest that he’s a losing GM without a Hall of Fame QB. And unless Licht gets lucky again, Mayfield isn’t a Hall of Famer.

And it probably doesn’t help Licht that Bowles is his HC.

Last year, as the in-house replacement for retiring HC Bruce Arians, Bowles made sense for the sake of continuity in what seemed likely to be Brady’s final season. Bowles had prior HC experience, and he had been with the team since 2019 as the DC. He could ensure stability with the defense, and OC Byron Leftwich, who had also been with the team since 2019, could manage the offense.

But Brady is gone. Leftwich is gone. And all reasonable expectations for this team are gone.

Bowles — an eight-year NFL safety (1986-93) who has coached in the league since 2000 — is a good DC. A secondary coach for the first half of his career, Bowles has been a full-time DC (not interim DC or HC/DC) for five NFL seasons (2013-14 Cardinals, 2019-21 Buccaneers). In four of them, his unit was top-eight in scoring. The exception was 2019, when the Tampa Bay roster was still being developed.

Bowles can coordinate a good defense. But he’s yet to be a good HC. In his five full HC campaigns, he’s 32-49 (0.395) with one winning season, one division title, one playoff appearance and no postseason wins.

Given his DC skill and organizational familiarity, he might seem like a decent bridge HC — but this is a guy who won’t win many games… which means that, if he’s a bridge, he’s a nihilistic bridge to nowhere. He’s less of a bridge and more of a plank on a pirate ship.

And I guess that’s fine. Maybe it’s best to keep the HC of the future clear of the collateral damage bound to emerge this season from the post-Brady era. That way, in 2024, Licht (assuming he still has a job, which he likely will) can bring in a new HC with clean hands.

But make no mistake: In effect, Bowles is an assassin whose mission is to kill the 2023 season. The main problem is that he thinks he’s a soldier instead of a sniper. The second problem is that he’s not a sniper.

Todd Bowles coaching record

• Years: 5 (1 with Buccaneers)
• Playoffs: 1 (1)
• Division Titles: 1 (1)
• Super Bowls: 0 (0)
• Championships: 0 (0)
• Win Total Record: 2-3 (0-1)
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: -0.8 (-3)
• Regular Season: 32-49 (..395) [8-9 (.471)]
• Playoff Record: 0-1 (.000) [0-1 (.000)]
• Against the Spread: 32-45-5 (-18.5% ROI) [4-13-1 (-52.5% ROI)]
• Moneyline: 32-50 (-22.3% ROI) [8-10 (-32.2% ROI)]
• Over/Under: 39-43 (2.0% ROI, Under) [6-12 (27.6% ROI, Under)]

Buccaneers stats in parentheses and brackets. Does not include Bowles’ three games as interim HC of 2011 Dolphins. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Dave Canales
• Offensive Playcaller: Dave Canales
• Assistant Coach: Tom Moore
• Assistant HC/Run Game Coordinator: Harold Goodwin
• OL Coach: Joe Gilbert
• QBs Coach: Thad Lewis
• RBs Coach: Skip Peete
• WRs Coach: Brad Idzik
• TEs Coach: John Van Dam
• Notable Turnover: OC/Playcaller Byron Leftwich (free agent), Sr. Off. Assistant Rick Christophel (free agent), QBs Coach Clyde Christensen (North Carolina), RBs Coach Todd McNair (free agent), WRs Coach Kevin Garver (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Canales is the external replacement for the banished Leftwich. A team captain and WR at Asuza Pacific, Canales returned to his high school (Carson) after graduating college and served as the HC of the JV team and OC of the varsity team (2004-05) before doing two years as the special teams/TE coach and then one year as the QBs coach at El Camino College (2006-08).

While there, he worked at USC HC Pete Carroll’s nearby annual football camps, and eventually Carroll recruited him to USC, where he did one year (2009) as an assistant strength coach and video assistant before following Carroll in 2010 to the Seahawks.

In Seattle, Canales slowly but steadily worked his way up the ranks, starting out as a quality control coach (2010-12) and then advancing to assistant QBs coach (2013-14), WRs coach (2015-17), QBs coach (2018-19), pass game coordinator (2020-21) and once again QBs coach (2022).

It’s hard to say how much credit Canales deserves for the success the Seahawks have had over the past 13 years. My guess is not much. But he had a hand in it. In each of his two years as assistant QBs coach, the Seahawks made the Super Bowl.

With Canales as the WRs coach, Doug Baldwin had his three best seasons and Tyler Lockett developed. In his first stint as QBs coach, Russell Wilson had the most efficient two-year stretch of his career (8.8 adjusted yards per attempt).

As the pass game coordinator, Canales oversaw Wilson’s most prolific campaign (4,212 yards, 40 touchdowns passing in 2020) and managed a passing attack that highlighted the latent potential of backup QB Geno Smith (8.4 AY/A in his three fill-in starts in 2021). And then as the QBs coach last year he mentored Smith to an NFL-high 69.8% completion rate, his first Pro Bowl and Comeback Player of the Year.

Without question, Canales excelled in Seattle in every role he had.

But he has never been an OC or playcaller in the NFL. Or in the FBS ranks. Or at the community college level. The last time he coordinated an offense or called plays was 2005 — as the high school OC for his alma mater. Based on his NFL accomplishments, Canales will probably be a fine OC/playcaller. Maybe good. Possibly great. But he also might struggle early, especially given that he has Mayfield at QB. At least he has experienced on-staff mentors in Moore and Goodwin.

Moore has been coaching since 1961, in the league since 1977 (except for 2018, his personal bye year) and with the Buccaneers since 2019. At 84 years old, he’s the oldest of old-timers.

An assistant HC for two teams (1990-93 Vikings, 2013-17 Cardinals), OC for six teams (1969 Wake Forest, 1974 Stars, 1975-76 University of Minnesota, 1983-89 Steelers, 1994-96 Lions, 1998-2009 Colts) and high-level assistant/consultant for four teams (2010 Colts, 2011 Jets, 2012 Titans, 2019-22 Buccaneers), Moore has lived and breathed more football than perhaps anyone else alive — and he’s the guy who called the offense for the Peyton Manning Colts. Assistant coaches don’t get into the Hall of Fame… but there’s a case to be made for Moore.

Goodwin has been the Bucs assistant HC and run game coordinator since 2019, before which he worked with Moore (then assistant HC) as the 2013-17 Cardinals OC under Arians.

While Goodwin is a respected coach, the Buccaneers were No. 32 last year with 1,308 yards rushing and 3.4 yards per carry. So, you know, not good. And in his five years as the Cardinals OC, his offenses were thrice bottom-six in rushing efficiency. Goodwin is probably a better assistant HC than run game coordinator.

Gilbert was a longtime college coach who jumped to the NFL in 2012 with the Colts, where he was the assistant OL coach for one year under Goodwin (OL coach). When Goodwin followed Arians to the Cardinals as OC in 2013, Gilbert replaced him as Colts OL coach and then eventually reunited with him in 2019 as the Buccaneers OL coach.

Lewis is the in-house replacement for Christensen at QBs coach. A backup/depth NFL QB who spent time with eight teams across eight years, Lewis jumped into coaching after he retired, doing two years at UCLA as an offensive analyst (2018-19) before joining the Buccaneers as an intern in 2020, advancing to Assistant WRs coach in 2021 and stepping into the vacated QBs coach role this offseason. Jumping up from college analyst to NFL QBs coach in a half decade is aggressive. Color me skeptical.

Peete joins the Buccaneers this offseason after spending all but one of the previous 25 years as an NFL RBs coach (1998-2006 Raiders, 2007-12 & 2020-22 Cowboys, 2013-14 Bears, 2016-19 Rams). With the Raiders, he coaxed 1,000-yard seasons out of Napoleon Kaufman, Tyrone Wheatley, Charlie Garner and LaMont Jordan.

In his first stint with the Cowboys, he got three 1,000-yard seasons from Marion Barber and two collectively from Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray. With the Bears, he oversaw Matt Forte’s two most productive seasons. With the Rams, he coached Todd Gurley to Offensive Player of the Year and two first-team All-Pros. And then in his second stint with the Cowboys he milked all the production he could from the aging Ezekiel Elliott and developed the promising Tony Pollard.

Peete is one of the best RBs coaches in the league. If there’s talent in RB Rachaad White, Peete will get it out of him and maximize it.  

Idzik is the son of John Idzik, who worked for the Buccaneers for 11 years (1993-96 pro personnel assistant, 1996-2001 director of football administration, 2001-04 assistant GM). After graduating from Wake Forest with a degree in mathematical business and doing a “sabbatical term” at Cambridge, Idzik the Younger went to Stanford and served there for five years as a graduate assistant while he completed a Master’s of Liberal Arts.

From there, he went to the Seahawks, where he met Canales and worked as assistant WRs coach (2019-20, 22) and assistant QBs coach (2021). In following Canales to the Buccaneers, he gets a bump up to WRs coach.

Van Dam worked in the college ranks for 11 years before joining the Buccaneers in 2019 as a quality control coach. In 2021 he was promoted to assistant TEs coach, and in 2022 he got another bump to TEs coach. Despite overseeing a unit that did almost nothing last year (673 yards, four touchdowns) — and despite the dismissal of the OC and all the other skill-position coaches — Van Dam is returning this year.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Playcaller/De Facto Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles
• Run Game Coordinator/DL Coach: Kacy Rodgers
• Pass Game Coordinator/Inside LBs Coach: Larry Foote
• Outside LBs Coach: George Edwards
• CBs Coach: Kevin Ross
• Safeties Coach: Nick Rapone
• Notable Turnover: Outside LBs Coach Bob Sanders (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Last year, Bowles offloaded coordinator duties to his top lieutenants — Rodgers and Foote — but he maintained his role as the defensive playcaller, and I assume that will continue into the 2023 season. So in effect he’s still the DC — just one who spends less time doing all the work a DC typically does. Bowles returns almost all the position coaches/”coordinators” from last year’s defensive staff.

Rodgers and Bowles have been together for 15 of the past 18 years. At first, Rodgers (DL coach) and Bowles (secondary coach) worked on the 2005-07 Cowboys under HCs Bill Parcells and Wade Phillips.

After that, they followed Cowboys assistant HC/OL Coach-turned-Dolphins HC Tony Sparano to Miami, where they held the same roles for four years (2008-11). While Bowles left the Dolphins in 2012, Rodgers stayed there as the DL Coach — and then they reunited on the Jets, where Bowles was HC and Rodgers was his DC for four years (2015-18).

When they were both fired, they landed together with the Buccaneers in 2019 (Bowles as DC, Rodgers as DLs coach), and then last year Rodgers got the run game coordinator title added to his job description.

Foote played off-ball LB in the NFL for 13 years (2002-14), the last of which was with the Cardinals, where Bowles was DC. After retiring, Foote joined the Cardinals staff as the Assistant LBs coach in 2015 and then was promoted to LBs coach in 2016.

When Bowles joined the Buccaneers in 2019, it was natural for him to bring in Foote from Arians’ old Cardinals staff. The outside LBs coach for three years (2019-21), Foote shifted back to inside LBs coach last year and received the additional title and duties of pass game coordinator. 

Edwards has been coaching in the NFL continuously since 1998 and joins the Buccaneers this year as the outside LBs coach. He previously worked with Bowles on the 2004 Browns, Bowles and Rodgers together on the 2008-08 Dolphins and then Rodgers only on the 2012-13 Dolphins. And he also worked as the senior defensive assistant on the 2020-22 Cowboys with new RBs coach Skip Peete.

A longtime LBs coach with DC experience on three different teams (2003 Commanders, 2010-11 Bills, 2014-19 Vikings), Edwards should be a strong and natural addition to the staff. 

Ross played CB in the NFL for 14 years (1984-97) and has been an NFL DBs coach every year since 2004 (except for 2012 and 2018). He worked under Bowles (then DC) as the CBs coach on the 2013-14 Cardinals and alongside Foote on the 2015-17 Cardinals. In his five years in Arizona, he mentored CB Patrick Peterson to five Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro seasons. Ross reunited with Bowles and Foote on the Buccaneers in 2019 and has been the team’s CBs coach since.

Rapone is a longtime college coach who jumped to the NFL in 2013 with the Cardinals, where he worked as the DBs coach alongside Ross for five years (2013-17). In 2019, they reunited (along with Bowles and Foote) on the Buccaneers, where Rapone has been the safeties coach for the past four years.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Keith Armstrong
• Special Teams Assistant: Keith Tandy
• Notable Turnover: Specialists Coach Chris Boniol

Armstrong started his career as a defensive coach (DBs/LBs) but transitioned to special teams and has been coaching them in the NFL for the past 26 years (1997-2000 Bears, 2001-07 Dolphins, 2008-18 Falcons, 2019-22 Buccaneers).

Tandy played safety in the NFL for seven years, first with the Buccaneers (2012-17) and then with the Falcons (2018), where he was a special teams ace for Armstrong in his final year. He has been Armstrong’s assistant since 2020. Last season, the Buccaneers were No. 31 in special teams DVOA.

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Baker Mayfield
• Backups: Kyle Trask, John Wolford
• Notable Turnover: Tom Brady (Retired) & Blaine Gabbert (Chiefs)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Baker Mayfield entered the NFL in 2018 as the No. 1 draft pick after an epic college career in which he walked on at Texas Tech, started as a true freshman and then transferred to Oklahoma, where he piled up 12,292 yards and 119 touchdowns passing (to 21 interceptions) with a 69.8% completion rate and 11.9 adjusted yards per attempt in three seasons and won the Heisman Trophy in his final year.

Aug 19, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks on against the New York Jets during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

He flashed in his first NFL season (7.5 AY/A), finishing No. 2 in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, and — after a down 2019 under extremely suboptimal circumstances — he did well in 2020 under the stabilizing influence of new HC Kevin Stefanski, completing 62.8% of his passes with a 7.7 AY/A, winning 11 games to lead the Browns to the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and claiming a beautiful 48-37 postseason victory over the division rival Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.

Baker looked like the prince that was promised, and the team picked up his fifth-year option, but then he suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2, his play notably declined (6.6 AY/A), he won only six games, the team missed the playoffs — and that was held against him in the offseason, when the team decided that he was no longer the QB of the future.

And then the team traded three first-round, one third-round and two fourth-round picks for disaffected Texans QB Deshaun Watson and gave him a record-breaking fully guaranteed five-year $230M deal — even though he hadn’t played in a year and was facing a future suspension stemming from 20-plus accusations of sexual misconduct.

Needless to say, Mayfield was now superfluous to the Browns, who traded him in July to the Panthers for a conditional 2024 fifth-rounder.

After going 1-5, completing just 57.8% of his passes for 5.6 AY/A and losing his starting job, Mayfield asked for his release in December, and the Panthers indulged his request, at which point the desperate Rams claimed him off waivers and gave him four starts at the end of the year in place of injured starter Matthew Stafford. In no game last season did Mayfield pass for even 250 yards.

And then in March he signed a one-year deal with the Buccaneers to be the departed Brady’s presumptive (but likely short-term) successor. That’s four different teams… in the span of almost nine months. If I were a better man — and I am — I’d wager that Mayfield won’t be on the Buccaneers a year from now.

Kyle Trask is a 2021 second-rounder who has played 10 snaps in two years and couldn’t beat out Mayfield in training camp. If the organization were hopeful about Trask, it wouldn’t have signed Mayfield in the first place, but I expect at some point the Buccaneers will give him a chance to show what he can do.

John Wolford is a 27-year-old journeyman who signed with the Jets in 2018 as an undrafted free agent, played on the AAF Hotshots in 2019 and served as a backup on the Rams in 2020-22. He has a career mark of 4.0 AY/A.

Projections as of Aug. 24.

Running Backs

• Starter: Rachaad White
• Backups: Chase Edmonds, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Sean Tucker
• Notable Turnover: Leonard Fournette (free agent) & Giovani Bernard (retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Rachaad White is a 2022 third-rounder with good size (6-foot and 214 pounds), sufficient athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash) and volume-attracting pass-catching ability (50-290-2 receiving as a rookie, 43-456-1 receiving as a senior). In the second half of 2022, he forced a committee backfield with Leonard Fournette and put up 581 yards and two touchdowns on 94 carries and 39 targets in eight starts (including playoffs, not counting a rest-filled Week 18). He has potential but is unproven.

Chase Edmonds is a 27-year-old veteran now on his fourth team since 2021. He was a functional change-of-pace option and injury fill-in for the 2010-11 Cardinals (1,753 yards, seven touchdowns from scrimmage), but last year he was sluggish (3.6 yards per carry) and struggled to earn opportunities with the Dolphins and Broncos.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn is a 2020 third-rounder who played well in college (2,728 yards, 24 touchdowns in final 24 games) and exhibited a good athletic profile at the combine (4.51-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-10 and 214 pounds) but did little in his first two seasons (349 yards, three touchdowns) and even less last year (72 yards) after the team drafted White. Still, he is likely to make the team as a core special teamer (199 snaps last year) — and he played ahead of Edmonds in Week 2 of the preseason.

Sean Tucker is a rookie UDFA who fell in the draft because of a heart condition, but he has been cleared to play and has a chance to carve out a role. For his college career, he put up 3,798 yards and 31 touchdowns in 33 games, and at his pro day he showed good strength (29 bench press reps) and explosiveness (38-inch vertical jump) and decent size (5-foot-9 and 209 pounds).

Projections as of Aug. 24.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer
• WR Backups: Deven Thompkins, David Moore, Rakim Jarrett
• TE Starter: Cade Otton
• TE Backup: Ko Kieft, Payne Durham
• Injured: WR Russell Gage (knee)
• Notable Turnover: WRs Julio Jones (free agent), Scotty Miller (Falcons) & Breshad Perriman (Colts), TEs Cameron Brate (free agent) & Kyle Rudolph (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Mike Evans is a 30-year-old four-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Buccaneers since his 2014 rookie season. Blessed with elite size (6-foot-5 and 231 pounds) and big-play ability (8.8 yards per target), Evans is the only player in NFL history to open his career with nine 1,000-yard receiving performances.

Chris Godwin is a 27-year-old power slot receiver with prototypical size (6-foot-1 and 206 pounds), great speed (4.42-second 40-yard dash) and perimeter versatility. In the half decade following his rookie year, he has put up 5,141 yards and 31 touchdowns receiving for the Buccaneers. While Evans is an alpha, Godwin might be the true No. 1 receiver at this stage of their careers.

Trey Palmer is a five-star sixth-round rookie likely to see significant playing in the wake of Russell Gage’s season-ending patellar tear in training camp. Although Palmer did little at LSU besides return punts and kicks in his first three seasons (and it’s worth noting that he had two return touchdowns), he broke out as a senior at Nebraska with 71-1,043-9 receiving and then blazed the combine (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 192 pounds).

He’s more of an athlete than a technician, but Palmer will have some big plays.

Deven Thompkins is a 2022 UDFA who averaged 3.2 yards per target last year and weighs 155 pounds Enough said. Moore is a 2017 seventh-rounder who has seen 23 offensive snaps over the past two years, but he played his first four seasons with Canales in Seattle, and he put up 1,254 yards and 13 touchdowns on 134 targets and 12 carries as a rotational player in 2018-20.

Rakim Jarrett is a rookie UDFA who led Maryland with 62-829-5 receiving as a sophomore, showed good speed at the combine (4.44-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 192 pounds) and got $225,000 guaranteed from the team with his contract — so he’s probably making the roster.

Cade Otton is a 2022 fourth-rounder who randomly and forgettably led all first-year TEs with 65 targets and 42 receptions last season. He should have even more opportunity and production this year without Brate and Rudolph, but he as a rookie looked utterly ordinary (6.0 yards per target).

Ko Kieft is a 2022 sixth-rounder who somehow made 12 starts last year but played only 271 snaps and saw just 10 targets. Still he’s a solid inline No. 2 TE (65.0 PFF run blocking grade), and he’s a core special teamer.

Payne Durham is a fifth-round rookie who was productive at Purdue (101-1,027-14 receiving in final two seasons), but his dad-like speed (4.87-second 40-yard dash) is likely to limit him in the NFL.

Projections as of Aug. 24.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Tristan Wirfs, LG Matt Feiler, C Ryan Jensen, RG Cody Mauch, RT Luke Goedeke
• Backups: OL Robert Hainsey, T/G Justin Skule, G/C Nick Leverett, OG Aaron Stinnie, 
• Borderline: T/G Brandon Walton
• Notable Turnover: LT Donovan Smith (Chiefs), OT Josh Wells (Jaguars) & RG Shaq Mason (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Wirfs is a 2020 first-rounder with freaky athleticism (4.85-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 320 pounds) who started three years at Iowa primarily at RT and has played every game of his NFL career at RT but now is tasked with transitioning to the blindside. A 2021 first-team All-Pro with two Pro Bowls, Wirfs is likely to be a good long-term LT, but he could struggle early.

Feiler is a 31-year-old offseason addition who has a good track record (no PFF grade below 65 in the 2017-21 timeframe) but is coming off a career-worst season in which he allowed six sacks and 40 pressures for the Chargers.

Jensen is a 32-year-old veteran who joined the team in 2018 and made the Pro Bowl in 2021 but suffered an ACL tear last preseason that sidelined him until the team’s Wild Card game, in which he allowed a dreadful six pressures. Jensen continues to rehab his knee this offseason and is yet to practice, so he’s far from certain to start in Week 1 — in fact, he seems likely not to at this point — and he’s not even a lock to play at all this year.

Mauch is a 24-year-old second-round rookie who converted from TE to OT (39 starts) at FCS champion North Dakota State and is now transitioning to guard in the NFL. A butt-kicking, teeth-missing mauler of a man, Mauch is rugged but ready to add some muscle to this OL. Goedeke is a 2022 second-rounder who — like Mauch — moved from TE to OT in college.

He was terrible last year — especially in pass protection — in his seven starts at LG, but he was playing out of position, and he improved as the season progressed: In his final two starts (including playoffs), he allowed just two pressures on 102 pass rushes. Shifting back to his natural RT position, he could be significantly better this year. 

Hainsey is a 2021 third-rounder who started 34 games at RT at Notre Dame, entered the draft as a guard-flexible prospect and then played 17 games at C in place of the injured Jensen last year — and he did well as the pivot, allowing zero sacks all year. If Jensen is unable to play, Hainesy will be ready to start.

Skule played with the starters in Week 1 of the preseason, so I give him the edge for now as the team’s swing tackle. A 2019 sixth-rounder who has played just 16 snaps over the past two years, Skule struggled in 12 starts with the 2019-20 49ers (30.4 and 45.1 PFF pass blocking grades).

Leverett is a 2020 UDFA who made 10 fill-in starts last year (nine at LG, 1 at C), and he handled himself well, allowing just 12 pressures and no sacks. If Mauch or Feiler suffers an injury or underperforms, Leverett might be able to step in with minimal disruption. Stinnie is a 2018 UDFA who made three playoff starts for the Buccaneers in their Super Bowl but has played just 102 snaps since then. He has never had a PFF grade of even 60.

Walton started Week 2 of the preseason and is likely competing with Skule for the swing tackle role. A 2020 UDFA, he made two LT starts last year and allowed just one sacks on 145 pass rushes. Walton looks like the superior player to Skule, and he was ahead of him on the depth chart last year, but it’s a little concerning that he hasn’t played ahead of Skule this preseason. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Shaquil Barrett, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
• EDGE Backups: Anthony Nelson, YaYa Diaby, Jose Ramirez
• DT Starters: Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey
• DT Backups: Greg Gaines, Logan Hall, William Gholston, Patrick O’Connor
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Carl Nassib (free agent), DTs Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Giants) & Akiem Hicks (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Barrett is a 30-year-old veteran who missed the second half of last year with an Achilles tear but has 40.5 sacks and two Pro Bowls since joining the team in 2019. A strong two-phase player, Barrett has never had a PFF grade below 67.5. Tryon-Shoyinka is a 2021 first-rounder with eight sacks just eight sacks in two years, but he took a step forward in his second season and will be an above-average contributor if he makes similar progress this season.

Nelson is a 2019 fourth-rounder who has gotten increasingly worse in run defense (88.5 PFF grade as a rookie, 61.1 last year) as his snap total has sequentially grown each year (152 as a rookie, 692 last year). As a pass rusher, he’s solid yet unexceptional with 10.5 sacks over the past two seasons.

Diaby is a third-round rookie with electric athleticism (4.51-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 263 pounds) and sufficient college production (nine sacks, 14 tackles for loss as a senior). Ramirez is a sixth-round rookie who is small (6-foot-2 and 242 pounds) and slow (4.73-second 40-yard dash) but very agile (6.95-second 40-yard dash) and attractively productive (12 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss in final season).   

Vea is a 2018 first-rounder who can play nose because of his size (6-foot-4 and 347 pounds) but also has the athleticism (5.10-second 40-yard dash) to play as a traditional three-technique. A 2021 Pro Bowler, Vea has 11.5 sacks over the past two seasons.

Kancey is a first-round rookie who conjures images of Aaron Donald with his diminutive size (6-foot-1 and 281 pounds), position-defying athleticism (4.67-second 40-yard dash) and interior disruption ability (14.5 sacks, 17.5 tackles for loss in final two seasons).

Despite hailing from Pitt, he isn’t Donald (who was bigger and exceptionally strong at the combine and significantly more productive in college), but Kancey could be a DL difference maker.

Gaines joins the Buccaneers after four years (2019-22) with the Rams, where he started 25 games over the past two seasons. An acceptable run defender, Gaines has 8.5 sacks since 2021.

Hall is a 2022 second-rounder who got blown up as a rookie in run defense (30.2 PFF grade) — most likely because of his tweener size (6-foot-6 and 283 pounds) — and put up only 2.5 sacks.

Gholston is a 32-year-old veteran who has somehow managed to stay on the team for the past decade despite mediocre-at-best production for the duration. He has interior/edge versatility but is poor against the run (53.9 PFF grade last year) and has never had even five sacks in a season (he had zero in 2022). O’Connor is a 2017 seventh-rounder who has 1.5 sacks and 20 tackles on 251 defensive snaps for his career.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Lavonte David, Devin White
• Backups: K.J. Britt, SirVocea Dennis
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

David is a 33-year-old time fighter who has been with the Buccaneers since his 2012 rookie year. With three All-Pro designations (one first-team, two-second team), David is consistently one of the league’s best off-ball defenders, especially in coverage, where he has had a PFF grade lower than 65 only once.

White — like David — was a second-team All-Pro in 2020, and he made his first Pro Bowl in 2021, but he’s not at all on David’s level. While White is a strong pass rusher (20.5 sacks in four years), he’s a liability in coverage (no PFF grade above 60) and a tragedy in run defense (no grade above 50). A 2019 first-rounder, White is a player whose reputation outweighs his production.

Britt is a 2021 fifth-round ace with nine special teams tackles in two years. Dennis is a fifth-round rookie who played behind Kancey at Pitt and piled up 231 tackles, 36 tackles for loss and 15 sacks in his three seasons as a starter.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Christian Izien
• CB Backups: Zyon McCollum, Josh Hayes
• S Starters: Antoine Winfield, Ryan Neal
• S Backups: Kaevon Merriweather, Dee Delaney
• Notable Turnover: CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (Titans), FS Mike Edwards (Chiefs), SS Keanu Neal (Steelers), S/CB Logan Ryan (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Davis is a 2018 second-rounder who has been a good (not great) producer throughout his career (seven interceptions, 7.3 yards per target). Capable of sticking with big receivers because of his size (6-foot-1 and 206 pounds) and physical playing style, Davis can handle himself in most matchups — but he’s vulnerable to speed receivers.

Dean is a 2019 third-rounder with the speed (4.30-second 40-yard dash) to take on the receivers who give Davis trouble, but he lacks the grittiness — despite his size (6-foot-1 and 206 pounds) — to man up big-bodied perimeter alphas. Even so, Dean has never had a PFF coverage grade below 72.5.

Izien is a 2023 UDFA safety who seems unlikely to start in the slot because of his NFL inexperience, position and lack of draft capital — but he made 41 starts at Rutgers, where he flexed regularly between FS and nickel, and the team gave him $165,000 guaranteed with his three-year deal, which is on the higher side of a UDFA.

Although he’s listed as a safety by the team, Izien in training camp played largely in the slot, where he started in Week 1 of the preseason — and then he rested with the starters in Week 2. Against the odds, he looks like the slot starter (right now).

McCollum — a 2022 fifth-rounder — entered training camp tentatively expected to play in the slot, but he played on the perimeter in Week 1 of the preseason, and then he did it again in Week 2 (while Izien rested). As a rookie, McCollum allowed a painful 10.9 yards per target. Hayes is a sixth-round rookie who has played in the slot behind Izien in the preseason and has S/CB versatility.

Winfield is a 2020 second-rounder who played as a deep safety for his first two seasons, but last year — given the team’s depth at the position — he played primarily as the team’s nickel. And there’s a chance that he’ll stick there this year, but without Keanu Neal, Edwards and Ryan he’s likely to return to FS. A 2021 Pro Bowler, Winfield is a fearless run stopper, ferocious blitzer and above-average pass defender. 

Ryan Neal is a 2018 UDFA who has started 20 games for the Seahawks over the past three years. He did a strong job of filling in for injured Pro Bowler Jamal Adams last season (82.0 PFF grade) and will assume the starting SS role for the Buccaneers.

Merriweather is a rookie UDFA with middling athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash), but he has good size (6-foot and 205 pounds), strong production (three interceptions, 47 tackles as a senior) and the willingness to contribute on special teams.

Delaney is a 2018 UDFA who has played 429 defensive snaps for the Buccaneers over the past two seasons. His play is unexceptional (he has never had a PFF grade of 65), but he can line up on the perimeter, in the slot, and deep. While he’s commonly listed as a corner, he has played mostly at safety in the preseason, although he flexed into the slot in Week 2. His versatility is his top virtue.

Specialists

• Kicker: Chase McLaughlin
• Punter: Jake Camarda
• Holder: Jake Camarda
• Long Snapper: Zach Triner
• Kick Returner: Deven Thompkins
• Punt Returner: Deven Thompkins
• Borderline: LS Evan Deckers

McLaughlin is a 27-year-old journeyman who is now on his ninth team since his 2019 rookie year, which means he’s good enough to be in the league (17-of-21 kicking on attempts of 50-plus yards) but not good enough to stick on a team (78.8% conversion rate).

Camarda is a 2022 fourth-rounder, which is maybe the greatest indictment of Licht as a GM: The dude — in Brady’s final season with the team — said to himself, “You know what would help us win a Super Bowl? Investing the No. 133 pick into a guy who plays about five snaps a game.” Anyway, Camarda was No. 5 last year with 48.8 yards per punt but No. 30 with 27.8% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line.

Triner has been long snapping for the Buccaneers since 2019. He’s in the final season of a two-year deal and should be able to beat out Deckers (2023 UDFA) — but the fact that Deckers is even on the roster at all isn’t a great sign of the team’s faith in Triner.   

Thompkins — at 155 pounds — is like Trindon Holliday, except slower (4.44-second 40-yard dash), less agile (6.98-second three-cone) and less productive as a return man (10.2 yards per punt, 21.9 yards per kick).

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Buccaneers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 20
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 8-15
• Opponents: at BUF, at HOU, vs. TEN, at SF, at IND, vs. CAR, at ATL, at GB

The Buccaneers have a slightly worse-than-average schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents — but all the other teams in their division have top-five schedules. Why the discrepancy? Last year the Buccaneers won the NFC South — by a mere one game over all the other teams — and so they have a first-place schedule this year.

They’re favored in just one game, which comes in the middle of maybe the hardest travel stretch for any team. After the Week 5 bye, the Buccaneers get two games in a row at home. Nice. But starting in Week 8 they play six-of-eight away. That’s brutal, and they’re the only team in the league this year to play six games on the road in any eight-week stretch.

To add insult to injury, within this six-of-eight away stretch, the Buccaneers have a three-day rest disadvantage in their first home game and are facing a divisional rival in the second.

While some of these games might look like coin flips based just on the opponents, circumstances could conspire for the coin to land on tails eight times in a row.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Buccaneers.

• GM Jason Licht acts as if it’s in the best interest of the team to win as many games as possible this year.
• HC Todd Bowles directs the offensive coaching staff to implement a conservative ball-control system.
• OC Dave Canales struggles in his first year as an NFL coordinator and playcaller.
• QB Baker Mayfield plays like a guy who is 8-16 with a 60.3% completion rate over the past two seasons.
• RB Rachaad White starts the year as a clear lead back, but his inefficiency leads to an even more inefficient committee.
• WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both ask for trades entering the Week 5 bye and are denied. 
• TE Cade Otton remains forgettable.
• LT Tristan Wirfs disappoints on the blindside, LG Matt Feiler fails to integrate himself into a new OL, C Ryan Jensen unexpectedly retires midseason after missing the first six weeks, RG Cody Mauch plays like a small-school rookie who has never played guard and RT Luke Goedeke demonstrates a sustained lack of confidence in his abilities after his rough rookie season.
• EDGE Shaquil Barrett is sapped of his explosiveness after last year’s Achilles injury, and EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka doesn’t progress.
• DT Vita Vea regresses back to the 2.5 sacks he averaged in 2018-20, and DT Calijah Kancey is too small to anchor against the run.
• LB Lavonte David starts to slow down, and LB Devin White plays poorly enough to get benched after a 34-10 road loss to the Falcons, who repeatedly exploited White on the ground and through the air.
• Slot CB Christian Izien plays like a rookie UDFA.
• K Chase McLaughlin is cut midway through the season and replaced by a nameless someone who is worse.
• Buccaneers go 7-10, decide to keep Bowles for another year and enter the offseason entertaining the idea of sticking with Mayfield, who “helped” the team go 6-1 to close the campaign. 

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Buccaneers.

• GM Jason Licht sees how poorly the team performs in the first month of the season and decides that it’s time to play for the future.
• HC Todd Bowles directs the offensive coaching staff to implement a conservative ball-control system.
• OC Dave Canales struggles in his first year as an NFL coordinator and playcaller.
• QB Baker Mayfield plays like a guy who is 8-16 with a 60.3% completion rate over the past two seasons and is eventually benched for QB Kyle Trask, who is even worse.
• RB Rachaad White dominates with volume and efficiency and looks like a potential piece to build around — or maybe trade away.
• WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both ask for trades entering the Week 5 bye, and Licht talks them into staying with the understanding that the team will have a new QB next year — perhaps a coveted rookie — and that they can become franchise legends by ensuring a smooth transition from the past to the future and helping the new guy establish himself.
• TE Cade Otton builds on his rookie season and becomes a reliable contributor.
• LT Tristan Wirfs transitions slowly but surely to the blindside, LG Matt Feiler reverts to his pre-2022 form, C Ryan Jensen returns to action healthy after six weeks, RG Cody Mauch shows great promise and RT Luke Goedeke rebounds at his natural position.
• EDGE Shaquil Barrett looks like himself to start the year and is traded for a Day 2 pick in Week 7 while EDGE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has a double-digit sack season.
• DT Vita Vea maintains his 2021-22 production, and DT Calijah Kancey finishes No. 2 in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting and frequently draws comparisons to… gulp… Aaron Donald.
• LBs Lavonte David and Devin White are both traded for Day 2 picks.
• Slot CB Christian Izien does yeoman’s work despite his NFL inexperience.
• K Chase McLaughlin has a normal season — but the few kicks he does miss are in high-leverage spots.
• Buccaneers go 3-14, get the No. 1 pick, hire USC HC Lincoln Riley as their HC, reach a settlement with Bowles (who agrees to return to DC), keep Mayfield as a backup since he knows Riley’s system and understands the pressures of being a No. 1 pick and then take USC QB Caleb Williams at the top of the draft.  

In-season angles

I view the Buccaneers as a strong “bet against” team primarily because Bowles has been a “bet against” coach throughout his career.

If at any point Bowles — especially with Baker as the starter — finds himself as a favorite this year, you bet I’ll be betting against him.

• Mayfield as Favorite: 11-23-1 ATS (29.6% ROI for faders)
• Bowles as Favorite: 14-19-2 ATS (11.9% ROI for faders)

Also, I project the Buccaneers to be an under team. I expect Mayfield and Bowles’ defense to be roughly what they were last year: Mayfield was bad and the defense was better than average. Hence unders.

• 2022 Mayfield Under: 7-3 (34.1% ROI)
• 2022 Buccaneers Under: 12-6 (27.6% ROI)

I don’t anticipate (m)any situations where I’ll be betting on the Buccaneers or the over.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like any of the team future markets, but I love a bet in the season-long player prop market.

Baker Mayfield Under 2,775.5 Yards Passing (-112, FanDuel)

There are so many ways for the under to hit. 

Even if Mayfield plays all 17 games, there’s a chance that the under could hit through individual inefficiency and incompetence and playcalling conservatism. The team could opt to funnel the offense through the backfield, and WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both candidates to be traded midseason.

Mayfield could suffer an injury behind an OL that has undergone a lot of change this offseason.

And he could obviously be benched and/or released midseason.

I have Mayfield projected for 2,676.3 yards, but even that might be high because I think his range of outcomes skews to the downside. If Mayfield hits the over, he probably won’t do so by much.

If he hits the under, he could fall short by as many as 1,000 yards.

You can tail the under on FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can take advantage of their No Sweat First Bet and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below and start betting today!