2023 Tennessee Titans Betting Preview

Last year the Tennessee Titans did something of a halfhearted rebuild after four straight winning seasons under HC Mike Vrabel, and they got halfway results with a 7-10 record: Not good enough to make the playoffs, but not bad enough to finish with a top-10 draft pick or to push the team toward a full teardown. 

And so — as they did last year — the Titans find themselves this year in an uncomfortable middle ground.

They’re still ostensibly playing to win right now: They haven’t parted ways with QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry, and they added WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason.

They’re also building for the future: On Day 2 of the draft, the team selected QB Will Levis and RB Tyjae Spears — potential replacements for Tannehill and Henry, who are both 2024 free agents — and the Titans can get out of their contract with Hopkins next year if they want to. Like the two-faced Janus, the Titans have eyes pointing in opposite directions.

This year, the Titans hope for something other than the purgatory they got last year.

They want either the heaven of an overachieved 13-win season that sees them wrap up the Tannehill and Henry era with a respectable postseason run — or the hell of an underachieved 13-loss season that leaves them with no choice other than to burn it all down and rise Phoenix-like from the ashes.

If not for Vrabel’s yearly ability to motivate coal to morph into diamonds, I’d say that a hellscape is more likely than paradise.

In this 2023 Titans preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Titans preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 7. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 7. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 7.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 7.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 7.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Ran Carthon
• Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
• Team Power Rating: -3.5
• Team Power Ranking: No. 25
• Coach Ranking: No. 15

Some GM and HC relationships are equally yoked. Many aren’t. This one likely isn’t. Although Vrabel probably “reports” to Carthon within the team’s power structure, the HC is the one with the power.

Carthon joined the team in January, after his predecessor — Jon Robinson — lost a power struggle with Vrabel after almost seven years as the Titans' GM. It turns out that if you trade your best WR — a young Pro Bowler who happens to be one of the best WRs in the NFL — and you do so without buy-in from your HC, and then your offense underperforms, and then that WR goes off for 8-119-2 receiving against you in the mother of all #RevengeGames, you’ll probably lose your GM job a couple of days later.

Hence Carthon, who — because of Robinson’s tenure — likely won’t have the full personnel power a typical GM would. But that might not matter to Carthon, given that he was most recently the director of pro personnel (2017-20) and then player personnel (2021-22) for the 49ers, where there’s an established power dynamic between GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan that strongly favors the HC.

Carthon is already used to working in an organization that grants the HC great autonomy, so he’s unlikely to have many issues working alongside Vrabel — or for Vrabel — instead of having Vrabel work for him.

The son of Maurice Carthon (who played in the USFL and NFL for 10 years and coached in the NFL for 19), Ran Carthon is like many GMs in that he’s a longtime personnel guy (vs. a “business guy”). After playing for three years in the league with the 2004-06 Colts and 2006 Lions, Carthon retired, joined the Falcons as a pro scout in 2008 and held that position for four years before leveraging up to the Rams director of pro personnel role in 2012 under first-year GM Les Snead. After five years with the Rams, Carthon joined the 49ers.

Jul 29, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) talks with head coach Mike Vrabel before the start of training camp. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

In his brief time with the Titans, Carthon has had a mixed performance. With the long term in mind, Carthon was sharp to draft OL Peter Skoronski and QB Will Levis in the first two rounds this year. Both could be foundational pieces for the team as early as 2024. But it was questionable for Carthon to sign WR DeAndre Hopkins and LT Andre Dillard and not to trade QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. And the long term is what he should have in mind given the overall state of Carthon’s roster, because it’s not constructed to win at a high level in the short term.

Carthon’s personnel transactions suggest that he — perhaps at Vrabel’s insistence — is attempting to serve two masters: The present and the future. Both of them might ultimately be dissatisfied.

At the same time, if Vrabel is the one making Carthon take this “compete now and build for later” approach, I think it’s hard to blame Vrabel: Of the two, he’s the one with the shorter timeframe, given that he has already been on the team for five years, and his experience as a coach has taught him to believe that he can win with a roster that’s only moderately talented.

And he’s not wrong. Before last season, Vrabel’s teams regularly won more games than expected and played tough in losses — and they did it with non-elite QBs in Tannehill and Marcus Mariota. In 2021, the Titans maneuvered their way to a 12-5 record and the No. 1 seed in the AFC as Vrabel won Coach of the Year. He gets the most out of his players, and if that’s the case then why should the team — and Vrabel, specifically — need to suffer through a full rebuild? In the NFL, you don’t get to have your protein bar and eat it too, and Vrabel wants his protein now.

As a defensive HC, Vrabel theoretically could have a scheme that’s strongly identified with him. He played for Patriots HC Bill Belichick for eight years (2001-08), but he’s not Belichick. Or Dolphins DC Vic Fangio. He’s not a defensive mastermind.

He’s just a guy who wants his team to play physical, mistake-free, complementary football. He wants his defense to beat up opposing offenses and his offense to control the ball and protect his defense. In other words, he’s essentially Steelers HC Mike Tomlin or Ravens HC John Harbaugh — but without the championship. 

Mike Vrabel coaching record

• Years: 5
• Playoffs: 3
• Division Titles: 2
• Super Bowls: 0
• Championships: 0
• Win Total Record: 4-1
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +1
• Regular Season: 48-34 (.585)
• Playoff Record: 2-3 (.400)
• Against the Spread: 44-41-2 ATS (0.4% ROI)
• Moneyline: 50-37 (23.8% ROI)
• Over/Under: 44-42-1 (0.0% ROI, Over)

ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• Offensive Coordinator: Tim Kelly
• Offensive Playcaller: Tim Kelly
• OL Coach: Jason Houghtaling
• Pass Game Coordinator/QBs Coach: Charles London
• Run Game Coordinator/RBs Coach: Justin Outten
• WRs Coach: Rob Moore
• TEs Coach: Tony Dews
• Notable Turnover: OC Todd Downing (Jets), OL Coach Keith Carter (Jets), QBs Coach Pat O’Hara (Titans Analyst), TEs Coach Luke Steckel (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Kelly joined the Titans last year as the passing game coordinator and replaced Downing as the OC in February. Kelly jumped from the college ranks to the NFL in 2014 with the Texans, where he worked on the same staff with Vrabel (LBs coach, DC) for four years and then stayed for another four years after Vrabel took the Titans HC job.

With the Texans, he advanced from quality control (2014-16) and assistant OL coach (2016) to TEs coach (2017-18), OC (2019-21) and QBs coach (2020). In his final two roles, he guided QB Deshaun Watson to his best NFL season and a league-high 4,823 yards passing.

Of the four OCs to work for Vrabel in Tennessee (Kelly, Downing, Arthur Smith and Matt LaFleur), Kelly has had the most impressive pre-Titans OC career. That Vrabel chose Kelly instead of someone else suggests that maybe — maybe — the Titans will rely more on the passing game and have more of a modern offense than they have previously. He has his work cut out for him: The offensive coaching staff has been radically reconfigured this offseason.

Houghtaling is a longtime small-school high school and college coach (RBs, OL, OC, HC) who joined the Titans as assistant OL coach in 2021 and was promoted to the top OL job this offseason. In his five years as a college HC, he went 16-40.

London was an offensive assistant with the Titans in 2011 and then did two years as the RBs coach at Penn State (2012-13), where he first met Kelly, who was a graduate assistant. When London went from Happy Valley to the Texans in 2014 as their RBs coach, Kelly followed.

After four years with the Texans and working with Vrabel, London did three years as the Bears RBs coach (2018-20) and two years as the Falcons QBs coach (2021-22) before returning to the Titans and reuniting with Vrabel and Kelly as the QBs replacement to the demoted O’Hara and the pass game replacement to Kelly. Under HC (and 2019-20 Titans OC) Arthur Smith, London’s Falcons QBs didn’t impress, but his Texans (Arian Foster, Lamar Miller) and Bears (Jordan Howard, David Montgomery, Cordarrelle Patterson) backfields were productive.

Outten joins the Titans this year as the replacement to Dews, who is shifting from RBs to TEs. Outten coached high school football in Texas for eight years before jumping to the NFL in 2016 with the Falcons, where he worked as an intern under then-QBs coach (and 2018 Titans OC) Matt LaFleur.

After two more years on the Falcons as an assistant, Outten reunited with LaFleur in Green Bay as the TEs coach and held that role for three years until he followed Packers OC-turned-Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett to Denver as the Broncos OC. Needless to say, that didn’t go well… and now he’s coaching a position he has never coached before. Fortunately for the Titans, RB Derrick Henry probably doesn’t need a capable position coach.

Moore is the only offensive coach returning to the staff in the same role he had last year, which is ironic because his unit was arguably the team’s worst in 2022.

An NFL WR for 13 years, Moore led the league in receiving in 1997 and transitioned to coaching after he retired in 2002. He joined the Titans in 2018 after working as a WRs coach for Syracuse (2010-12), Bills (2013-14) and Raiders (2015-17), where he encountered former OC Downing (2014-16 QBs coach, 2017 OC).

Dews coached in college for 20 years at literally every position on offense except for OC and QBs coach before joining the Titans in 2018 as the RBs coach. Despite not coaching TEs since 2011, he switched to TEs coach this offseason to replace Steckel. We’ll see.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Shane Bowen
• assistant HC/DL Coach: Terrell Williams
• Outside LBs Coach: Ryan Crow
• Inside LBs Coach: Bobby King
• Pass Game Coordinator/CBs Coach: Chris Harris
• Safeties Coach: Scott Booker
• Notable Turnover: Senior Defensive Assistant Jim Schwartz (Browns), Secondary Coach Anthony Midget (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Bowen is a Vrabel guy. He worked under Vrabel as a graduate assistant at Ohio State in 2012, and then — after a three-year stint as Kennesaw State LBs coach (2013-15) — he reunited with Vrabel on the Texans in 2016 as a defensive assistant and then followed him to the Titans in 2018 as the outside LBs coach. In 2021 he was promoted to the coordinator role, which was officially vacant for the 2020 season following the retirement of former DC Dean Pees after 2019.

In Bowen’s first year as DC, his defense was No. 6 in scoring. Last year, it was No. 14, which is not terrible given the injuries the unit suffered. But the defense does contain some underappreciated downside as an extreme pass funnel.

• 2021: No. 2 in rushing yardage | No. 25 in passing yardage
• 2022: No. 1 in rushing yardage | No. 32 in passing yardage

If the Titans continue to dare opposing offenses to attack them via the air, and if the Titans' pass defense is worse this year than it was last year, Bowen’s unit could be in for a bad season. It helps that he returns most of his position coaches, although the loss of Schwartz as consigliere hurts. 

Williams joined the Titans in 2018 as the DL coach after NFL stints with the Raiders (2012-14) and Dolphins (2015-17). After the Titans' defense was No. 1 in rush EPA and success rate last year, Williams was promoted to assistant HC with DL responsibilities this offseason. He’s good at his job. 

Crow is a college coach who leveraged a 2017 stint as a defensive graduate assistant at Ohio State — Vrabel’s alma mater — into a job with the Titans in 2018 as a defensive assistant. In 2020, he advanced to assistant special teams coach, and then in 2021 he bumped up to outside LBs coach. He has had mixed results. EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree joined the team as free agents in 2021. Under Crow, Autry had the two best seasons of his career, but Dupree had the two worst.

King has been in the NFL since 2010, and he worked under Vrabel on the 2017 Texans as the LBs coach. After the Texans' HC change last year, King reunited with Vrabel in Tennessee. Over the past six years, King’s Zach Cunningham-led units have underwhelmed.

Harris was an eight-year NFL DB who made second-team All-Pro in 2010. After retiring, he worked his way up from quality control (2013-14 Bears) and assistant DBs coach (2016-19 Chargers) to DBs coach (2020-22 Commanders) and now pass game coordinator/CBs coach. He almost can’t help but be an upgrade on Midget as the top secondary staff.

Booker worked in the college ranks for 15 years before joining the Titans in 2018 as a safeties defensive assistant. In 2014, he was the TEs coach/ST coordinator at Notre Dame, where he worked with then-OC/QBs coach (and 2018 Titans OC) Matt LaFleur. Once with the Titans, Booked advanced to the role of safeties coach in 2020.

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Assistant HC/Special Teams Coordinator: Craig Aukerman

Aukerman has been coaching special teams in the NFL since 2012. He did his first stint with the Titans in 2013-15 as the assistant ST coordinator and then returned to the team in 2017, again as the assistant coordinator, after a one-year gig as the Chargers coordinator. When Vrabel arrived to Tennessee in 2018, he promoted Aukerman to coordinator. 

Over the past four years, the Titans have been — sequentially by year — Nos. 24, 27, 28 and 29 in special teams DVOA. On the one hand, at least the team has gotten better each year. On the other hand, the team still sucks at special teams.

Aukerman doesn’t technically have an assistant coach, but he fired last year’s assistant and hired two new ones. So that will probably fix the problem. (Sarcasm.)

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Ryan Tannehill
• Backups: Will Levis, Malik Willis
• Notable Turnover: QB Joshua Dobbs (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Ryan Tannehill is a 35-year-old veteran who joined the Titans via trade in 2019 and jumped from discarded backup to surprising starter midseason in his first year with the team on his way to making his first (and only) Pro Bowl and winning Comeback Player of the Year.

He missed five games last year, has seen the team draft Day 2 QBs in back-to-back years and is in the final season of his contract, so the writing’s on Tannehill’s Tennessee wall, but in four years with the Titans he has averaged 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt, put up a 36-19 record and made the postseason three times. He has likely lost a significant part of his rushing ability (2.9 yards per carry last year), but he’s still a respectable pocket passer.

Will Levis (second-round rookie) and Malik Willis (2022 third-rounder) are Day 2 picks who both entered the draft with notable Round 1 hype but ultimately fell outside the top 32.

Levis has great size (6-foot-4 and 229 pounds) and NFL arm strength, and he played in a pro-style system at Kentucky, but his accuracy is scattershot and he’s more of a pocket player than a dual threat.

Willis has elite rushing ability (338-1,822-27 rushing, including sacks, in final two college seasons) and a strong arm, but his accuracy is suspect at best, and he played in a simplified system at Liberty. He was so raw as a rookie that the Titans opted to sign Dobbs off the street last year to start when Tannehill was hurt rather than give snaps to Willis.

I give the slight lean to Levis, but it’s a coin flip as to who will be the No. 2 QB behind Tannehill this year, and there’s no guarantee that either guy will be Tannehill’s successor in 2024.

Projections as of Aug. 9.

Running Backs

• Starter: Derrick Henry
• Backups: Tyjae Spears, Hassan Haskins, Julius Chestnut
• Borderline: Jonathan Ward
• Notable Turnover: RB Dontrell Hilliard (free agent), FB Tory Carter (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Derrick Henry is a 29-year-old three-time Pro Bowler who won Offensive Player of the Year in 2020 and has had 1,000 scrimmage yards in each of the past five seasons.

Despite his advanced age, he led the league in 2022 with 349 carries and had a career-best 33-398-0 receiving performance, so Henry is still a more-than-functional player — but his efficiency has declined over the past two years (4.4 yards per carry vs. 5.0 in first five years), and eventually, his godlike body (6-foot-3 and 247 pounds) will break down. In the final year of his contract, he might be the last of the NFL’s true workhorse backs.

Tyjae Spears is a third-round rookie with long-term injury concerns (two ACL tears), but he was productive in college (1,837 yards, 21 touchdowns from scrimmage in 2022) and could be a complementary option to Henry this year and perhaps his replacement next year.

Hassan Haskins is a 2022 fourth-rounder with great size (6-foot-2 and 228 pounds), but he underwhelmed as a rookie (150 yards on 25 carries, 12 targets) and now faces legal issues stemming from multiple domestic disturbances. He’s far from certain to make the team.

Julius Chestnut is a 2022 UDFA who can play some FB with his size (5-foot-11 and 228 pounds) and is willing to pitch in with special teams. Given that the team doesn’t have an official FB on the roster, Chestnut could fill that occasional role when needed. If Haskins or Chestnut falls off the roster, Jonathan Ward (2020 UDFA) will likely take his spot.

Like Chestnut, Ward can play on special teams, and he’s serviceable in a pinch in the backfield (4.1 yards per carry, 6.5 yards per target for career).    

Projections as of Aug. 9.

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

• WR Starters: DeAndre Hopkins, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
• WR Backups: Kyle Philips, Chris Moore, Racey McMath
• TE Starter: Chigoziem Okonkwo
• TE Backup: Trevon Wesco, Josh Whyle, Kevin Rader
• Borderline: WR Colton Dowell
• Notable Turnover: WRs Robert Woods (Texans), Cody Hollister (free agent) and Chris Conley (49ers), TEs Austin Hooper (Raiders) and Geoff Swaim (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

DeAndre Hopkins is a 31-year-old five-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro who joins the team this year after 10 seasons with the Texans (2013-19) and Cardinals (2020-22). He has played only 19 games over the past two years due to injury and suspension, and last season he experienced a notable decline in efficiency (7.5 yards per target vs. 8.6 for the previous half-decade).

He loosely fits the prototype of the last-leg WRs the team has brought in over the past two offseasons (30-year-old Woods in 2022, 32-year-old Julio Jones in 2021), but Hopkins nevertheless upgrades the WR unit significantly and has familiarity with OC Tim Kelly’s system from their time together in Houston.

Treylon Burks is a 2022 first-rounder with great size (6-foot-2 and 225 pounds), sufficient speed (4.55-second 40-yard dash), good college production (66-1,104-11 receiving, 14-112-1 rushing in final season) and promising rookie-year production (8.2 yards per target, 11.8 yards per carry).

Having Hopkins on the team could help Burks develop without the pressure of needing to be the team’s No. 1 WR right away.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a 2020 UDFA who has started 20 games for the Titans over the past two years, putting up 63-873-7 receiving on 107 targets mostly as a power slot. He has good size (6-foot-2 and 211 pounds) and can line up across the formation, but he’s not a lock to start ahead of Kyle Philips (2022 fifth-rounder), who missed most of last year with a hamstring injury but led UCLA in receptions in each of his three full seasons (2019-21) after entering college as a four-star slot man.

I think that Westbrook-Ikhine will probably be the No. 3 WR early in the year and eventually lose his spot to Philips.

Chris Moore is a 30-year-old roster survivor who has spent the previous seven years playing special teams and running mostly empty routes for the Ravens (2016-20) and Texans (2021-22). He can line up across the formation and is coming off a career-best 44-548-2 receiving season, but he offers little.

Racey McMath is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has played more snaps on special teams (186) than offense (173) in his two seasons. Neither Moore nor McMath is certain to beat out Colton Dowell, an upside 24-year-old seventh-round rookie with great athleticism (4.44-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds) and good college production (67-1,036-6 receiving in 2022).

Chigoziem Okonkwo is a 2022 fourth-rounder very much in the mold of Titans TEs before him (Jonnu Smith, Delanie Walker). Built more like an H-back or beefed-up WR than an actual TE (6-foot-3 and 238 pounds), Okonkwo has near-elite athleticism (4.52-second 40-yard dash) and was productive in college (52-447-5 receiving as a senior) — and then as a rookie he flashed with 32-450-3 receiving on an explosive 9.8 yards per target and position-high 2.61 yards per route.

He’s likely to lose snaps because he’s not a great run blocker (55.3 PFF grade last year), and targets are always tough to come by in Tennessee, but Okonwko could be an efficiency-driven Pro Bowler with some development, and he should see a surge in playing time as the starter replacement to Austin Hooper.

Trevon Wesco joins the Titans after four years with the Jets (2019-21) and Bears (2022). He has never had even 50 yards receiving in a season, but he’s an above-average inline blocking specialist who will likely see regular playing time in Geoff Swaim’s vacated role as the No. 2 TE.

Josh Whyle is a fifth-round rookie who’s decent at everything (three seasons with 300-plus yards receiving) but dominant at nothing. Rader is a 2018 UDFA who was a decent inline run blocker and strong special teamer (seven tackles, 85.0 PFF grade) for the Titans last year in his first season with the team.

Projections as of Aug. 9.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Andre Dillard, LG Peter Skoronski, C Aaron Brewer, RG Daniel Brunskill, RT Chris Hubbard
• Backups: OT Jaelyn Duncan, C/G Corey Levin, OG Jordan Roos
• Injured: RG Dillon Radunz (knee)
• Suspended: RT Nicholas Petit-Frere (6 games) 
• Notable Turnover: LTs Taylor Lewan (free agent) and Dennis Daley (Cardinals), OT Le’Raven Clark (Steelers), C Ben Jones (free agent), RG Nate Davis (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Dillard is a 2019 first-rounder who joins the Titans after withering on the vine for four years with the Eagles. With nine NFL starts, Dillard is a highly unproven blindside protector for a unit that lost its starting LT and two top backup OTs this offseason — but he’s not without hope: Over the past two seasons, he has allowed a respectable 20 pressures on 237 pass rushes.

Skoronski is an All-American first-round rookie who entered college as a four-star C and then kicked out to LT as a true freshman because of team need and started there for three years. The Titans are shifting him to guard because of his short arms (32 inches), which could make him a liability on the perimeter — but inside he has the skill set to be a sufficient pass protector and dominant run blocker.

Brewer is a 2020 UDFA who has started 22 games for the Titans over the past two years, primarily at LG, but he’s pivoting to C this year as the in-house replacement to Jones. He’s a poor pass blocker (45.4 PFF grade last season) and could struggle at his new position. Brunskill is a 29-year-old do-it-all yeoman who started 42 games and played at every OL position for the 49ers over the past four years.

With Davis gone and 2021 second-rounder Radunz possibly out to start the year (ACL tear in late December), Brunskill is in the mix to start at RG, but he’s also a candidate for RT, where starter Nicholas Petit-Frere (2022 third-rounder, 52.3 PFF grade) will be absent to start the year due to violating the league’s gambling policy.

Hubbard just signed with the Titans in late July and is a 32-year-old career RT with some LT/RG flexibility. He started 48 games combined for the 2016-17 Steelers and 2018-20 Browns but has been a poor backup for the past two years (51.0 PFF grade in 2021, 40.9 PFF grade last season). If Brunskill sticks at RG, then Hubbard could play at RT before Petit-Frere’s return.

Duncan is a four-star sixth-round rookie who started at LT for four years at Maryland. He has good athleticism (5.10-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 306 pounds) but might lack the strength to anchor at tackle and need to shift to guard.

Levin is a 2017 seventh-rounder who started three games at C last year. He can play all three interior spots and was a good pass protector last year (four pressures on 126 pass rushes), but he’s a mediocre run blocker. Roos is a 30-year-old journeyman who has been with the Titans since 2021.

He started the final three games of 2022 at RG and could be in the mix to start there if the Titans want Brunskill at RT — but Roos was a forgettable run blocker and ignominious pass protector (24.6 PFF grade).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Harold Landry, Denico Autry
• EDGE Backups: Arden Key, Rashad Weaver, Sam Okuayinonu
• DT Starters: Jeffery Simmons, Teair Tart
• DT Backups: Naquan Jones, Jaleel Johnson
• Borderline: EDGE Caleb Murphy, DT Jayden Peevy
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Bud Dupree (Falcons), Mario Edwards (Seahawks) and Tarell Basham (Bengals), DTs DeMarcus Walker (Bears) and Kevin Strong (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Landry is a 2018 second-rounder who missed last year with an ACL tear but was a Pro Bowler in 2021 with 12 sacks. Autry is a 33-year-old veteran who has 17 sacks since joining the Titans in 2021 and had a career-best season (82.8 PFF grade) last year in Landry’s stead.

Key is a 27-year-old journeyman now on his fourth team in four years. While he disappointed early in his career (three sacks in his first three seasons), he has improved over the past two years (11 sacks with 2021 49ers and 2022 Jaguars).

Like Landry and Autry, he’s acceptable but not special against the run. Weaver is a 2021 fourth-rounder who got 5.5 sacks last year with increased playing time (640 snaps) thanks to Landry’s absence. 

Okuayinonu is a 2022 UDFA who got one sack on 65 pass rushes as a rookie. He could lose his spot to Caleb Murphy, a rookie UDFA who had a record 25.5 sacks and 39 tackles for loss and won the Ted Hendricks, Gene Upshaw and Cliff Harris Awards (defensive end, lineman, defensive player of year) as a senior for two-time Division II champion Ferris State.

Simmons is a 2019 first-rounder who has made the Pro Bowl and second-team All-Pro in each of the past two seasons. He’s a strong two-phase player.

Tart is a 2020 UDFA who has steadily increased in playing time and ability since his rookie year. He had 26 pressures last season on 305 pass rushes and a 67.0 PFF run defense grade.

Jones is a 2021 UDFA with back-to-back seasons with a PFF grade of 46.5.

Johnson is a 29-year-old journeyman now on his fifth team since 2020. Over the past three years, he has 2.5 sacks and no PFF run defense grade of even 40. Neither Jones nor Johnson is guaranteed to make the roster over Peevy, a 2022 UDFA with just 27 snaps last year. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Azeez Al-Shaair, Monty Rice
• Backups: Jack Gibbens, Luke Gifford, Chance Campbell
• Borderline: Ben Niemann
• Notable Turnover: David Long (Dolphins), Dylan Cole (Bears), Zach Cunningham (Eagles) and Joe Schobert (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Al-Shaair joins the Titans after four years with the 49ers, where he started 31 games. He’s an average-at-best pass defender but strong run defender (82.1 PFF grade last year). Rice is a 2021 third-rounder who — like Al Shaair — is unimpressive in coverage (53.6 PFF grade).

Gibbens is a 2022 UDFA who was good against the run last year (28 tackles) but lacking against the pass (80% catch rate). Gifford is an ace who joins the Titans after four years with the Cowboys, whom he led in 2022 with 406 special teams snaps.

Campbell is a 2022 sixth-rounder who missed last year to injury, but he has good athleticism (4.57-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 232 pounds) and was a plus special teamer in college. Niemann has 21 starts over the past half decade, and he had a career-high 70 tackles for the Cardinals last season, but he is a net negative in run defense and coverage and has no guaranteed money on his one-year deal.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary, Sean Murphy-Bunting
• CB Backups: Caleb Farley, Elijah Molden, Tre Avery, Chris Jackson
• S Starters: Kevin Byard, Amani Hooker
• S Backups: Josh Thompson, A.J. Moore
• Notable Turnover: CB Terrance Mitchell (49ers) and Greg Mabin (Panthers), SS Andrew Adams, S/CBs Joshua Kalu and Lonnie Johnson
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Fulton is a 2020 second-rounder who has allowed an unimpressive 8.0 yards per target for his career. McCreary is a 2022 second-rounder who allowed a not-so-nice 69.2% catch rate as a rookie, but at least he has inside/outside versatility.

Murphy-Bunting joins the Titans after four years and 36 starts with the Buccaneers. He’s coming off the best season of his career (74.5 PFF coverage grade), but he’s expected to move from the perimeter to the slot, where he struggled earlier in his career. 

Farley is a 2021 first-rounder who has played just 12 games and 164 snaps in two years and been absolutely terrible in his limited action (12.7 yards per target). Like “fetch,” he’s not going to happen. Molden is a 2021 third-rounder who missed almost all of last year to injury and allowed a 71% catch rate as a rookie.

Avery is a 2022 UDFA who was respectable (61.9 PFF coverage grade) on 289 snaps when pushed into action last season.

Jackson is a 2020 seventh-rounder who was injured almost all of last year and has never had a PFF coverage grade of even 55.  

Byard is a 30-year-old two-time first-team All-Pro who has been with the Titans his whole career. Strong in coverage and against the run and capable of lining up deep, in the box and at the slot, he’s one of the league’s best safeties.

Hooker is a 2019 fourth-rounder who has been starting for the Titans since 2021. Like Byard, he lines up across the formation and is strong in coverage (71.5 PFF coverage grade last year). Unlike Byard, he shouldn’t line up in the box because he’s terrible in run defense (43.8 PFF grade). The secondary would probably benefit if Hooker shifted from SS to FS. 

Thompson is a four-star 2022 UDFA who played just 83 special teams snaps last year. Moore signed with the Titans last year after four season with the Patriots (2018) and Texans (2018-21) — but then he missed most of 2022 to injury. He’s a poor defender (29.0 PFF grade in 2021) but reliable special teamer (1,177 snaps with Texans).

Specialists

• Kicker: Caleb Shudak
• Punter: Ryan Stonehouse
• Holder: Ryan Stonehouse
• Long Snapper: Morgan Cox
• Kick Returner: Julius Chestnut
• Punt Returner: Kyle Philips
• Borderline: K Trey Wolff, KR Hassan Haskins 
• Notable Turnover: K Randy Bullock (free agent), 

Shudak is a 2022 UDFA who played one game for the Titans last year in place of the injured (and since released Bullock). In his one season as the No. 1 K at Iowa, Shudak converted 85.7% of his field goal attempts and 100% of his extra point attempts. Stonehouse is also a 2022 UDFA, and last year he led the league with 53.1 yards per punt and was named second-team All-Pro. Cox is a 37-year-old veteran who has made five Pro Bowls since 2015 and was a first-team All-Pro in 2020. He joined the Titans two years ago.

Chestnut replaced Haskins as the team’s top KR in the second half of 2022, but I’m not sure why. He averaged 21.5 yards per kick return to Haskins’ 21.8. Frankly, neither of them is an ideal returner.

Philips started 2022 as the No. 1 PR on the team, but then he muffed two punts and suffered a season-ending injury. He’ll probably get the job back: He averaged an elite 12.4 yards per return (albeit in a small sample) last year, and in college he was a fantastic specialist with an average of 19.3 yards for his career and two touchdowns on 26 returns.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Packers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 13
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-6
• Opponents: at NO, vs. LAC, at CLE, vs. CIN, at IND, vs. BAL (in London)

The Titans don’t have a tough schedule by virtue of playing the AFC South, but they do have a stretch of three consecutive road games in the middle of the year, and their opening to the season deserves a look.

In each of their first six games, the Titans are underdogs. They’re getting at least a field goal in five of them. Four of the games are on the road. And they have a three-of-four away stretch that culminates with a London game.

They could head into their Week 7 bye a depressed 0-6. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Titans.

• HC Mike Vrabel continues to shackle his offense with the chains of conservatism.
• OC Tim Kelly struggles early in the season to organize a staff that has minimal continuity.
• DC Shane Bowen can’t stop the perpetual bleeding in his pass defense.
• QB Ryan Tannehill plays just well enough to keep his job but not well enough to win games.
• RB Derrick Henry turns into end-of-career Eddie George.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins sees his efficiency decline for a second straight season, and WR Treylon Burks grows disinterested in the offense because of the team’s run-heavy approach.
• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo suffers the low-volume fate of Jonnu Smith.
• LT Andre Dillard plays like a guy who couldn’t earn his way off the bench, LG Peter Skoronski endures the struggles of a rookie, C Aaron Brewer languishes at his new position, RG Daniel Brunskill doesn’t do as well in a new offensive system and RT Chris Hubbard reminds everyone why he was still on the market in late July.
• EDGE Harold Landry is not the same player he was before his ACL tear.
• LBs Azeez Al-Shaair and Monty Rice are brutalized in coverage.
• CBs Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting are all separately benched at various points in the season, but they each find their way back into the starting lineup because their backups are worse.
• SS Amani Hooker plays in the box all year and routinely is exposed in run defense.
• K Caleb Shudak kicks like a guy who has played only one NFL game.
• Titans start the year 0-6 but save Vrabel’s job — and also sabotage their chance to get the No. 1 seed — by finishing the season 5-12.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Titans.

• HC Mike Vrabel begrudgingly allows the offense to lean more into the passing game.
• OC Tim Kelly struggles early in the season to organize a staff that has minimal continuity.
• DC Shane Bowen gets his defense to be a little less terrible against the pass.
• QB Ryan Tannehill returns to his 2019-20 form thanks to the best pass-catching unit he has ever had.
• RB Derrick Henry tightropes the age cliff for one more season.
• WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks both go over 1,000 yards receiving in a Week 18 victory.
• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo leads his position in yards per route for the second year in a row, and he finishes with 10 TDs as the team’s top red-zone receiver.
• LT Andre Dillard does a passable impersonation of a franchise blindside bookend, LG Peter Skoronski menaces DTs throughout his Pro Bowl rookie season, C Aaron Brewer transitions smoothly to the pivot and RG Daniel Brunskill and RT Chris Hubbard play like a savvy veterans.
• EDGE Harold Landry has his second career season with double-digit sacks.
• LBs Azeez Al-Shaair and Monty Rice deliberately decommit to run defense so they can focus on coverage.
• CBs Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting all get just a little bit better, and McCreary plays in the slot so that Murphy-Bunting can stay on the perimeter, where he had success last year.
• SS Amani Hooker switches spots with FS Kevin Byard, and they complement each other perfectly.
• K Caleb Shudak builds on the 85.7% conversion mark he sported as a college senior.
• Titans go 11-6, win the AFC South, beat the Chargers and Bills in back-to-back low-scoring snow games in the playoffs and then blow a 13-point halftime lead to lose to the Chiefs in Kansas City in the AFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Titans as a neutral betting team that will likely be exploitable via a zigzag strategy. If I bet on them, they will likely be underdogs.

• Vrabel as Underdog: 25-17 ATS (14.3% ROI)
• Vrabel as Underdog: 22-21 ML (51.5% ROI) 

If I bet against them, they will almost certainly be favorites.

• Vrabel as Favorite: 19-24-1 ATS (7.2% ROI for faders)
• Vrabel as Favorite: 16-28 ML (0.5% ROI for faders)

Some thoughts on the discrepancies we see between ATS and ML, which I think make sense. The Titans are a team that focuses on maximizing wins, not points. That means that, as favorites, the Titans are fine winning ugly (and thus not covering). As underdogs, the Titans don’t play to lose close: They compete for the victory, which means that win more than they probably should when getting points.

So if I’m betting on them as underdogs, it will likely be on the moneyline. If I’m fading them, the spread will suffice.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a no-hold market on Titans to make the playoffs and a negative-hold market on Titans win total.

• Make Playoffs: +250 (Caesars)
• Miss Playoffs: -250 (DraftKings)
• Over 7.5 Wins: +115 (BetRivers)
• Under 7.5 Wins: +105 (BetMGM)

In such a scenario — especially the win total market — the sportsbooks are effectively offering us a freeroll.

Let’s take them up on it.

Titans Under 7.5 Wins (+105, BetMGM)

I have the Titans projected for 6.9 wins, so this is a nice opportunity. As I mentioned in the intro and GM and HC section, this team is betwixt and between the future and the present, and I think this season — with QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry in the final year of their contracts — will finally push them toward the future and the rebuild they need. They went 7-10 last year, and I can’t say that their team has improved since then. 

You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets with their First Bet Offer. Sign up below and start betting today!