2023 Washington Commanders Betting Preview

Last year the newly styled “Commanders” entered the season hoping to survive the end of the Dan Snyder era and to improve on the 7-9 and 7-10 records they put up in their first two seasons under HC Ron Rivera.

While I’m not personally a fan of the “Commanders” brand — what was wrong with “Football Team”? — the franchise seems to have settled into its new name, and in 2022 the Commanders improved (hilariously) to a definitionally mediocre 8-8-1.

And then in May — glory be to the football gods — Snyder finally agreed to sell the team to an investment group led by Josh Harris (owner of the NBA’s 76ers and NHL’s Devils), and the $6.05B deal closed in July.

Much work remains. The task now falls to Harris to determine if Rivera, GM Martin Mayhew and (gulp) QB Sam Howell are the men to lead the team into the future.

For the time being, they’re the ones who will lead the team into the 2023 season — and that doesn’t sound great. But for the first time since May 1999, the future of this organization will not involve Snyder and the uncouth chaos that surrounds him, and that’s a source of hope that should sustain fans for a while. It’s morning in America’s capital.

This year, one way or another, the Commanders need to move out of the purgatorial middle ground they’ve occupied for the past three years (and really the past 24 years). If that means winning only three or four games and laying the foundation for a 2024 rebuild, fine.

If that means winning double-digit games, making the playoffs and discovering that Rivera, Mayhew and Howell belong to the franchise’s future, that’s even better. I guess.

In this 2023 Commanders preview we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Commanders preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Odds as of Aug. 21. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

Odds as of Aug. 21. Implied probability calculated without sportsbook hold.

2023 team projections

2023 strength of schedule

Implied opponent points scored based on betting lines as of Aug. 21.

Implied opponent points allowed based on betting lines as of Aug. 21.

Opponent win totals based on betting lines as of Aug. 21.

General Manager and Head Coach

• General Manager: Martin Mayhew
• Head Coach: Ron Rivera
• Team Power Rating: -4
• Team Power Ranking: No. 28
• Coach Ranking: No. 25

Mayhew has been the Commanders GM since 2021, but he was a starting CB for the organization in 1989-1992 and led the team with five tackles in its Super Bowl 26 victory. After retiring in 1996, Mayhew got his law degree at nearby Georgetown, and when he was in law school he got his first executive job as a personnel intern for the team in 1999.

I wouldn’t exactly say that Mayhew bleeds red and pees gold, but he has been a member of the Commanders family for a long time. And he probably does bleed red and pee gold, but I have no firsthand knowledge of that. And if I did, I wouldn’t exactly say that.

Following his Commanders internship, Mayhew worked as a legal intern directly for the NFL (2000) and then as the director of football administration for the XFL (2000-01) before joining the Lions, where he put in 15 years, starting out as the senior director of football administration (2001-03), advancing to SVP/assistant GM (2004-08) and finally serving as the GM (2008-15).

I think Mayhew’s tenure as the Lions GM deserves some context. Although he was the GM for the majority of the winless (0-16) 2008 season, he was a midseason replacement for Matt Millen, the longtime GM (2001-08) who constructed that team and then was fired during the Week 4 bye. So although Mayhew was technically the GM for 13 of the team’s losses in 2008, they don’t really belong to him.

At the same time, when Mayhew inherited the team he had been Millen’s top lieutenant for almost five years, so it’s not as if he was blameless: They weren’t of his design, but Mayhew had a hand in making the 2008 Lions what they were.

With the 13 losses of 2008 included, Mayhew had a 41-76 (.350) record as Lions GM (41-63, .394 with 2008 excluded). That’s terrible — but it’s not as bad as Millen’s 31-84 (.270).

In Millen’s tenure (seven-plus years), he never had a winning season and hit six wins just twice. In Mayhew’s tenure (seven-plus years), he had two winning campaigns and reached six wins four times.

Feb 23, 2023; Ashburn, Virginia, USA; Eric Bieniemy (M) poses with Washington Commanders general manager Martin Mayhew (L) and Commanders head coach Ron Rivera (R) after being introduced as the new Commanders offensive coordinator and assistant head coach during an introductory press conference at Commanders Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Mayhew wasn’t terrible, especially considering that he needed multiple seasons (2009-10) to power wash away the filth of the Millen regime. He did a good job in helping the Lions rebuild with his top draft picks — QB Matthew Stafford (No. 1, 2009), DT Ndamukong Suh (No. 2, 2010) — and in 2011-14 the team went 32-32 and made the playoffs twice. Considering where the Lions were in 2008, that was great progress for the organization.

But then the team opened the 2015 season with a 1-7 record, and Mayhew was fired in the Week 9 bye — after which the team he built got hot and finished 7-9. And then it went 9-7 in back-to-back years and made the playoffs one more time.

So Mayhew didn’t have strong success with the Lions, but he was successful: He pulled the Lions out of their milieu of muck and mire and positioned them on the pedestal of mediocrity, which was no small feat. He took a team that hadn’t had a winning season in a decade and transformed it into a 2011-17 squad that went 57-55 and made the postseason three times in seven years.

Mayhew deserves credit for what he accomplished in Detroit, which is probably why he got the GM job in Washington — in a league that almost never gives failed GMs second chances.

But after his time with the Lions, Mayhew did the work to rehabilitate his image. In 2016, he joined the Giants as director of football operations, and then in 2017 he joined the 49ers to work with HC Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch as the senior personnel executive (2017-18) and then VP of player personnel (2019-20).

With the success the 49ers had in rebuilding their team and reaching the 2019 Super Bowl, Mayhew was able to leverage his position into the Commanders GM job in January 2021, and since then he has accumulated a Lions-esque 15-18-1 record in Washington.

While that’s not ideal, it’s also not terrible, and if the team stays around .500 this year that should be good enough for Mayhew to keep his job — although Rivera would likely be out as HC.

I like Rivera as a person. He proved himself to be a 100% boss by coaching in 2020 while battling cancer. He seems like the kind of guy who would run into a burning building to try to save a baby. But he’s also the only coach in NFL history to take a losing team (2014 Panthers, 2020 Commanders) to the playoffs twice. That little nugget almost perfectly epitomizes who he is as an organizational leader.

Rivera — a nine-year NFL LB who won a Super Bowl with the 1984-92 Bears — has been the Commanders HC since 2020 and an NFL coach since 1997. After retiring, Rivera joined the Bears staff as a quality control coach (1997-99) and then worked as the LBs coach for HC Andy Reid’s Eagles (1999-2003) before returning to Chicago in 2004 as the Bears DC and turning his defense from the No. 22 unit in scoring (2003) to No. 1 in 2005 (when he won assistant Coach of the Year) and No. 3 in 2006 (when the Bears went 13-3 and made the Super Bowl).

After the team’s postseason success, Rivera and the Bears couldn’t come to terms on a contract extension, so he left the team, joined the Chargers in 2007 as their LBs coach, advanced to DC in 2008 and then coordinated the No. 1 defense in yardage in 2010, at which point he secured the Panthers HC job.

In his nine years in Carolina, Rivera had a weird tenure. He never had a bottoming-out campaign. He never had fewer than six wins (except for 2019, when he was fired midseason). He was a high-floor coach whose teams regularly competed. He was basically Mike Tomlin minus 1-2 wins each year and a legacy Super Bowl victory.

But Rivera also had only three winning seasons.

Despite that, he won Coach of the Year twice (2013, 2015), made the Super Bowl once and finished with a franchise win/loss record solidly above .500. Even if he wasn’t consistently effective, Rivera was consistently professional, which almost certainly played a part in why he was hired by the Commanders less than a month after the Panthers fired him.

The ability to avoid total collapse that Rivera exhibited in Carolina has manifested itself in Washington. The Commanders have been a mediocre-at-best team over the past three years, but they’ve also never had fewer than seven wins, and they even won the division in 2020 (albeit with a losing record). Effectively, Rivera has been bad enough to put his future in doubt but not bad enough to fire in the present.

Despite the success Rivera had as a coordinator, he’s not a true defensive innovator. He’s more of a master workman than an architect. And his defenses tend to be volatile year over year and are characterized by a “break, don’t bend” quality. Almost every season since his first Carolina campaign, Rivera’s defenses have ranked lower in scoring than yardage. His defense isn’t the type that will let you march down the field and then hold you to a field goal. It’s the type that will hold you to a three-and-out or give up a long touchdown. Again, volatile.

In 2015, the Panthers defense was No. 6 in scoring. In 2016, No. 26. In 2017, No. 11. Over the past three seasons, the Commanders defense has been Nos. 4, 25 and 7 in scoring. Every season, Rivera’s defense is the proverbial box of chocolates — and defense is inherently worth less than offense in today’s points-friendly NFL.

As HC, Rivera has done a poor job of finding and retaining productive OCs. Only twice in 12 years has Rivera’s offense finished top-10 in scoring: 2011, when rookie QB Cam Newton took the unsuspecting league by storm, and 2015, when Newton ascended to god mode and had an MVP campaign. Otherwise, Rivera’s offenses have been boring at best and abominable at worst. 

Ultimately, Rivera is a middle-of-the-road leader of men, and if his team doesn’t improve in 2023 then he’ll likely walk his path alone in 2024.

Ron Rivera coaching record

• Years: 12 (3 with Commanders)
• Playoffs: 5 (1)
• Division Titles: 4 (1)
• Super Bowls: 1 (0)
• Championships: 0 (0)
• Win Total Record: 6-6 (2-1)
• Avg. Win Total Over/Underperformance: +0.42 (+0.33)
• Regular Season: 98-90-2 (.521) [22-27-1 (.450)]
• Playoff Record: 3-5 (.375) [0-1 (.000)]
• Against the Spread: 125-112-5 (2.8% ROI) [28-29-2 (-5.4% ROI)]
• Moneyline: 101-95-2 (4.3% ROI) [22-28-1 (4.4% ROI)]
• Over/Under: 97-97-4 (-2.4% ROI, Over) [18-31-2 (21.0% ROI, Under)]

Commanders stats in parentheses and brackets. ATS, ML, and O/U data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

2022 team statistics

DVOA is a Football Outsiders statistic that stands for “Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average.” Regular season only.

2022 offensive statistics

EPA stands for “Expected Points Added per Play.” SR stands for “Success Rate.” Both are available at RBs Don’t Matter. Regular season only.

2022 defensive statistics

Regular season only.

2023 offense

• assistant HC/Offensive Coordinator: Eric Bieniemy
• Offensive Playcaller: Eric Bieniemy
• Sr. Off. Advisor/Game Management Coordinator: Ken Zampese
• QBs Coach: Tavita Pritchard
• RBs Coach: Randy Jordan
• WRs Coach: Bobby Engram
• TEs Coach: Juan Castillo
• assistant OL Coach: Travelle Wharton
• Notable Turnover: OC/Playcaller Scott Turner (Raiders), Sr. Off. Assistant Jim Hostler (Lions), WRs Coach Drew Terrell (Cardinals), OL Coach John Matsko (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Bieniemy joins the Commanders this offseason as the external replacement for Turner, who worked for Rivera for seven years (2011-12, 2018-22). An All-American RB and Heisman finalist at Colorado in college, Bieniemy entered the NFL as a second-rounder, played in the league for nine years and finished his career with the 1999 Eagles under rookie HC Andy Reid and alongside QB Doug Pederson, both of whom he’d work with years later on the Chiefs.

After he retired, he immediately moved into coaching, and as an RBs coach (2001-02 Colorado, 2003-05 UCLA) he launched Chris Brown and Maurice Jones-Drew, both of whom had multiple 1,000-yard seasons in the NFL. With this success, Bieniemy jumped to the NFL in 2006 as the Vikings RBs coach, oversaw the out-of-nowhere 1,500-yard breakout season of Chester Taylor — and then lived the good life as RB Adrian Peterson’s position coach for the first four years of his career and getting the assistant HC title added to his job description in 2010. 

Desirous to call plays, Bieniemy returned to his alma mater as OC in 2011, but he was unable to do much with the team’s talent-deficient roster, so after two unsuccessful seasons at Colorado he returned to the NFL as the RBs coach for Reid (HC) and Pederson (OC) in their first year in Kansas City.

As the Chiefs RBs coach (2013-17), Bieniemy had tremendous success with Jamaal Charles (2013-15), Spencer Ware (2016) and Kareem Hunt (2017), and following the departures of OCs Doug Pederson (Eagles HC) and Matt Nagy (Bears HC) and retirement of assistant HC/OC Brad Childress, Reid in 2018 named Bieniemy as his OC.

As such, Bieniemy oversaw one of the greatest offenses the NFL has ever seen. The 2018-22 Chiefs were top-six in yards and points every season, finishing No. 1 in scoring twice and yardage thrice as QB Patrick Mahomes won two MVPs and the Chiefs won two Super Bowls.

Even so, Bieniemy — unlike Pederson and Nagy, who theoretically were less successful as Chiefs OCs — was unable to leverage his record with the Chiefs into an NFL HC job.

Why?

I think it mainly has to do with two factors (although a number of explanations have been widely proffered by mainstream media and others).

Firstly, Reid and Mahomes get the vast supermajority of the credit for the Chiefs offensive success over the past half decade. Even though Bieniemy is the OC, the offense still fundamentally belongs to Reid, who schemes it and calls the plays — and Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL: He’s already a surefire Hall of Famer with what he has accomplished.

As far as the rest of the league can perceive, Bieniemy is merely the technical beneficiary of wonderful circumstances beyond his control.

Secondly — and probably more importantly — Bieniemy has a reputation of being hard and/or unpleasant for players and even other coaches to work with. At best, he’s an intense perfectionist. At worst, he’s an out-of-touch jerk.

To address the first issue, Bieniemy left Kansas City this offseason so that he can call plays and truly coordinate an offense in Washington and hopefully show that he can succeed outside of the significant shadows cast by Reid and Mahomes.

And to justify the move from the Chiefs to Commanders — which feels like a ludicrous shift on the surface — Bieniemy was given the additional title of assistant HC, so it’s not entirely a lateral/downward move.

The second issue, though, isn’t going away. Bieniemy is who he is, and his working style has followed him to Washington, where he has already clashed with players.

Here’s the thing: Bieniemy might not be wrong in his approach. He won a championship in college, he has two Super Bowls in the NFL and he has overseen fantastic individual and unit performances. Many of his former Chiefs players love him and stand up for him in the media. But Bieniemy’s approach might hinder his ability — at least in the short term — to reach some of his current players, and that means the offense might suffer.

Plus, we don’t truly know if Bienemy as an OC/playcaller can succeed without Reid and Mahomes. His two years in Colorado — where his offenses were Nos. 109 and 120 in scoring and some of the players he recruited got caught up in a sex scandal — were unpromising.

And then finally there’s the matter of incentive. Bieniemy wants an NFL HC job, and his past experience has perhaps taught him that offensive production alone won’t secure it for him. Rivera is in a make-or-break year… and Bieniemy is his assistant HC. 

If Rivera were to lose his job midseason, Bieniemy would be a strong candidate to replace him as interim HC and essentially audition for the full-time job. If Rivera loses his job after the season but the offense has done well and Bieniemy has helped develop Howell, then the team could opt to promote Bieniemy to HC in order to keep him. 

Either way, Bieniemy looks a little like an offensive coach-in-waiting in the service of a retread defensive HC nearing the end of his reign. Basically, 2010 Cowboys assistant HC/OC Jason Garrett with HC Wade Phillips.

I’m not saying that Bieniemy will actively undermine Rivera or seek to sabotage him… but they might have differing motivations, which could impact how the offense performs.

Underneath Bieniemy is a hodgepodge collection of held-over assistants and new imports, starting with Zampese, the son of Ernie Zampese, a longtime NFL OC. The 2020-22 QBs coach, Zampese was demoted following Bieniemy’s hire.

While he has a long history of productive work with QBs Kurt Warner (2000-02 Rams), Carson Palmer (2003-10 Bengals), Andy Dalton (2011-17 Bengals) and Baker Mayfield (2018 Browns), I’m skeptical about Zampese’s ability to make significant contributions as… checks notes… the “game management coordinator.”

Pritchard is the guy Bieniemy brought in to replace Zampese — and he’s an intriguing hire. Before joining the Commanders, Pritchard had spent the past 17 years at Stanford, first as a player (2006-09) and then as a coach (2010-22). As a player, Pritchard was middling: He started as a sophomore and junior but was benched for Andrew Luck as a senior.

After graduation, he joined the coaching staff as a graduate assistant (2010) and gradually worked his way up the ranks: defensive assistant (2011-12), RBs coach (2013), QBs/WRs coach (2014-17) and finally OC/QBs coach (2018-22). There was nothing revolutionary about Pritchard’s offenses, but he did get production out of his position groups and helped develop QBs Davis Mills and Tanner McKee into NFL-caliber players.

Jordan joined the Commanders as RBs coach in 2014 as part of then-HC Jay Gruden’s first staff after spending one decade in the league as a player and another decade in the college ranks as a coach. In Washington, Jordan has gotten 1,000-yard seasons out of Alfred Morris, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gibson and almost even J.D. McKissic.

Engram was a Biletnikoff Award-winning WR in college who played 14 solid (if unspectacular) years in the NFL (1996-2010) before transitioning immediately to coaching. As the 2012-13 University of Pittsburgh WRs coach, he guided Tyler Boyd to a 1,200-yard season as a true freshman.

And as the 2014-18 WRs coach and 2019-21 TEs coach for the Ravens, Engram maximized the tailends of Steve Smith and Mike Wallace’s careers (they both had 1,000-yard seasons in Baltimore) and oversaw Mark Andrews’ first-team All-Pro campaign (1,361 yards). His one-year stint as the Wisconsin OC/QBs coach did not go as planned — the team had literally three different HCs last season — but Engram should do well in Washington with the WRs he has.

Castillo has been coaching since 1982 and in the league since 1995. He was the OL coach for the Eagles in 1999 when Bieniemy played his final NFL season in Philadelphia. Known primarily as an OL coach — and for his disastrous and random stint as the 2011-12 Eagles DC — Castillo was a TEs coach for the 1997 Eagles and joined the Commanders last year in that role.

Wharton still technically carries the title of assistant OL coach, but Rivera has indicated that Wharton will manage the line this season. A 10-year NFL lineman who started at LG for the 2011 and 2013 Panthers, Wharton returned to the Panthers in 2018 as assistant OL coach and has held that title since then on Rivera’s Carolina and Washington staffs. He’s currently out recovering from back surgery, and the timetable for his return is unclear. In his absence, Castillo might assist with the OL.

2023 offensive unit rankings

2023 defense

• Defensive Coordinator: Jack Del Rio
• Senior Defensive Assistant/Safeties Coach: Richard Rodgers
• DL Coach: Jeff Zgonina
• LBs Coach: Steve Russ
• DBs Coach: Brent Vieselmeyer
• Notable Turnover: DBs Coach Chris Harris (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Del Rio joined the Commanders as DC in 2020 after two years out of football. Like Rivera, Del Rio is a two-time NFL HC (2003-11 Jaguars, 2015-17 Raiders) who played successfully in the league before rising through the ranks as an LB coach and DC. Even though they never played or coached together before 2020, Rivera and Del Rio feel like versions of each other.

In his 19 years as an HC and DC (including 2002 Panthers, 2012-14 Broncos), Del Rio has overseen a defense that is top-10 in scoring eight times and bottom-10 just thrice. His units aren’t always consistent: In 2012, his Broncos defense was No. 4, and then the next year it was No. 22. But his units are rarely terrible: Never has he had a defense finish bottom-five. The Commanders defense could be volatile in 2023, but it’s unlikely to be awful. It helps that the defensive staff has great continuity.

Rodgers is a longtime college secondary coach who jumped to the NFL with the Panthers in 2012 and has been with Rivera in a variety of roles ever since. For his first three years in Washington he was an assistant DBs coach. This year, he’s stepping up to fill some of the secondary duties vacated by Harris and to serve as the defensive consigliere.

Zgonina played DT in the NFL for 17 years (1993-94) and served as a DL coach (2017-18 49ers) and assistant DL coach (2013 Texans, 2016 Giants) before joining the Commanders in 2020. After two years as assistant DL coach, he got bumped up to DL coach last year.

Russ played LB in the NFL for six years (1995-2000) and then coached in college for 17 years before joining the Panthers in 2018 as LBs coach and following Rivera to Washington in 2020. 

Vieselmeyer — like Rodgers — was an assistant DBs coach (nickels) for the 2020-22 Commanders, and this year he’s bumping up to DBs coach as the replacement to Harris. Prior to joining the Commanders, he bumped around the high school and college ranks for two decades but did serve a three-year stint in the NFL on Del Rio’s Raiders staff (2015-16 assistant LBs coach, 2017 safeties coach).

2023 defensive unit rankings

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Nate Kaczor
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Ben Jacobs

Kaczor has been coaching since 1991 and in the NFL since 2008, when he joined then-HC Jack Del Rio’s Jaguars as assistant ST coach (2018-11). After that he spent time with the Titans (2012 assistant OL coach, 2013-15 ST coordinator) and Buccaneers (2016-18 coordinator) before joining the Commanders in 2019 under the Gruden regime and being retained by Rivera in 2020. Last year the Commanders were No. 7 in special teams DVOA.

Jacobs is an NFL LB veteran who played for the 2013-18 Panthers, retired, and then joined the 2019 Panthers as the assistant ST coach and followed Rivera to Washington. 

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Sam Howell
• Backups: Jacoby Brissett, Jake Fromm
• Notable Turnover: Carson Wentz (free agent) & Taylor Heinicke (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Sam Howell is a second-year fifth-rounder who looked passable (7.6 adjusted yards per attempt, 5-35-1 rushing) in his one start (Week 18) last year — but it was just one start at the very end of the season. A moxie-filled three-year starter at North Carolina, Howell has excellent college passing stats (9.9 AY/A) and entered his final season as a candidate for the No. 1 pick, but his year-over-year aerial production declined in 2021 (11.1 AY/A to 9.0 AY/A) after his four top pass catchers all left school for the NFL (WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter).

Even with his newfound dual-threat ability (183-828-11 rushing, including sacks), Howell’s 2021 performance was enough to kickstart his draft process slide, which culminated in his Day 3 fall to the Commanders.

Howell has potential. In his brief action last year, he was (almost?) acceptable (although it’s a negative sign that he was the third-stringer behind Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke until Week 18). And in the preseason he has looked good.

Last year, he completed 62.3% of his pass attempts for 547 yards and one touchdown (to one interception) and flashed with 13-94-2 rushing. This year, he has bumped his completion rate up to 75.7% and converted his 37 attempts into 265 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. There’s a real chance that Howell could turn out to be a capable NFL starter.

But as of now we should assume that he’s probably just a little bit better than the typical second-year fifth-rounder — and that’s not good. But it’s a positive sign that he easily won the No. 1 QB job this offseason over Jacoby Brissett, a 30-year-old high-floor/low-ceiling bridge/backup now on his fourth team since 2020.

With 48 starts and the experience of playing behind QBs Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson, the knowledgeable Brissett can hopefully share his wisdom with Howell and serve as something of a player mentor. And if he’s pressed into action, Brissett should give the Commanders a chance to compete: Last year, he looked good in his 11 starts with a 7.0 AY/A.

Jake Fromm is a 2020 fifth-rounder already on his third team after the Commanders signed him to their practice squad last year. A productive but physically limited three-year starter at Georgia, Fromm is essentially Howell minus the rushing ability. In his two NFL starts with the Giants in 2021, he completed just 45.0% of his passes for a 1.6 AY/A. I’ve had better.

Projections as of Aug. 22.

Running Backs

• Starter: Brian Robinson
• Backups: Antonio Gibson, Chris Rodriguez
• Borderline: FB Alex Armah
• Notable Turnover: J.D. McKissic (free agent/retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Brian Robinson is a 2022 third-rounder who played behind Damien Harris, Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris his first four years at Alabama but broke out as a redshirt senior (1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns) and then beat out Antonio Gibson for the No. 1 RB job in training camp before he was shot twice in an armed robbery shortly before the season kicked off.

Amazingly, he missed only the first month of the season and ultimately led the team with 205 carries and 797 yards rushing — but his efficiency underwhelmed (3.9 yards per carry), and he did little as a receiver (12 targets, 5.0 yards per target).

Gibson is a 2020 third-rounder who put up 2,373 yards and 21 touchdowns from scrimmage in his first two seasons but dropped to just 899-5 last year as he lost work to Robinson. With elite athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 228 pounds) and reliable pass-catching ability (124-894-5 receiving on 154 targets for his career), Gibson feels like someone who could be a full-blown workhorse, but the Commanders evidently don’t see him that way.

Even so, he’s likely to have a bounceback campaign as the locked-in third-down back following the offseason release of McKissic, who dominated as the team’s pass-catching back for the past three years.

Chris Rodriguez is a sixth-round rookie with great size (6-foot and 216 pounds), good speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash) and nice college production (3,182 yards, 29 touchdowns in 30 games across three years as Kentucky’s lead back). But he’s a receiving nonentity (20 catches in five years) and basically another downhill runner who offers nothing the team doesn’t already have in Robinson.

Alex Armah is a 29-year-old lead blocker who has played for Rivera for five years (2017-19 Panthers, 2021-22 Commanders). He has special teams utility, but he hardly played last year (four offensive snaps) and could struggle to make the team without former OC Scott Turner.

Projections as of Aug. 22.

Wide Receivers & Tight Ends

• WR Starters: Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel
• WR Backups: Dyami Brown, Byron Pringle, Dax Milne
• TE Starter: Logan Thomas
• TE Backup: John Bates, Cole Turner
• Injured: Armani Rogers (Achilles)
• Borderline: TE Curtis Hodges
• Notable Turnover: WR Cam Sims (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Terry McLaurin is a 27-year-old alpha who has been burdened with beta QBs for the entirety of his career. Even so, he has 4,281 yards receiving and 9.0 yards per target through four seasons as well as 10-71-0 rushing. Capable of operating at all levels of the field, McLaurin made his first Pro Bowl last year with a career-high 1,220 yards and could ascend into the tier of the elite if Howell is a capable passer.

Jahan Dotson is a 2022 first-rounder with middling speed (4.43-second 40-yard dash) and worse agility (7.28-second three-cone) for his size (5-foot-11 and 178 pounds), and yet he produced at Penn State as the No. 1 WR in his final two college seasons (2,084 scrimmage yards, 22 all-purpose touchdowns in 21 games), and then he flashed as a rookie with 35-523-7 receiving (8.6 yards per target) despite missing five games and dealing with a hamstring injury throughout the season.

Dec 18, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson (1) runs with the ball as New York Giants cornerback Fabian Moreau (37) chases during the third quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Despite his physical limitations, Dotson played the supermajority of his snaps last year on the perimeter, where he has the route-running nuance and ball-skills dominance to be an impact producer.

Curtis Samuel is a 27-year-old Percy Harvin clone who has spent most of his career with Rivera (2017-19 Panthers, 2021-22 Commanders) — but his most productive season was his one non-Rivera campaign (2020), when he had 1,051 yards and five touchdowns on 97 targets and 41 carries.

While he’s unlikely ever to enjoy that kind of production again, he had similar usage last year (92 targets, 38 carries) and was reasonably productive (843, five touchdowns). The way Bieniemy plans to deploy him is yet to be seen, but Samuel is a strong No. 3 option as a slot receiver and all-around weapon.

Dyami Brown is a 2021 third-rounder who played 335 snaps as a rookie and then got backed off to 169 last year with the addition of Dotson. He’s a fine No. 4 WR (7.9 yards per target) who can line up across the formation, but he’s not someone the team wants starting games. Pringle is a 29-year-old offseason addition who played the first four seasons of his career with the Chiefs (2018-21) before signing a one-year deal with the Bears last year.

In Washington he reunites with Bieniemy, who saw Byron Pringle average an explosive 9.7 yards per target with the Chiefs as a rotational receiver. With his size (6-foot-1 and 203 pounds), speed (4.46-second 40-yard dash) and agility (6.87-second three-cone), Pringle can play every WR spot, and he also can contribute on special teams, where he was the Chiefs primary kick returner in 2021. Milne is a 2021 seventh-round slot man who has 121 yards from scrimmage on 246 offensive snaps in two years.

Logan Thomas is a 32-year-old QB-to-TE convert who “broke out” (sort of) in 2020 with 72-670-6 receiving on 110 targets, but he missed 11 games in 2021 with multiple injuries (hamstring pull, ACL tear), and he looked sluggish in 2022 (5.3 yards per target). Given that Thomas is already dealing with a calf strain and is yet to see any preseason action, he might have yet another milquetoast performance in 2023. 

John Bates is a 2021 fourth-rounder who has played 1,029 snaps over the past two years. His strong run blocking (87.6 PFF grade in 2021, 65.0 last season) and sufficient receiving (7.6 yards per target) give him a good chance to continue to play as the No. 2 TE. Turner is a 2022 fifth-rounder who doesn’t have the size (6-foot-6 and 246 pounds) to stick his blocks in the run game, and he lacks the speed (4.76-second 40-yard dash) to challenge the defense in the pass game. Last year he turned 245 snaps into two receptions.

Curtis Hodges is a 2022 UDFA who spent last year on IR but could get a roster spot this season after Rogers tore his Achilles in OTAs. With his size (6-foot-8 and 257 pounds), Hodges could be a situational red-zone option with special teams utility (he blocked two punts in college thanks in part to his NBA forward-like length). 

Projections as of Aug. 22.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Charles Leno, LG Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, RG Sam Cosmi, RT Andrew Wylie
• Backups: OT Cornelius Lucas, C/G Ricky Stromberg, C/G Tyler Larsen, T/G Braeden Daniels
• Borderline: OG Chris Paul
• Notable Turnover: RG Trai Turner (Saints), LG Andrew Norwell (free agent), C/G  Wes Schweitzer (Jets), C Nick Martin (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Leno is a 31-year-old blindside bookend who joined the Commanders in 2021. With 128 starts and a Pro Bowl on his record, Leno has been a strong pass blocker throughout his career (he hasn’t had a PFF grade lower than 70.0 since 2015, his first year as a starter), but he’s the only Week 1 OL who started for the Commanders last year at the position he’s playing this year.

Charles is a 2020 fourth-rounder who played a career-high 290 snaps last year as an injury fill-in and had a career-low 43.6 PFF grade. Gates joins the Commanders after spending the previous half decade with the Giants. A 2018 UDFA, he started all 16 games at C in 2020 but suffered a nasty season-ending leg injury in Week 2 of 2021 and didn’t return to the starting lineup until Week 10 last year, when he played mainly at LG. Gates is a sufficiently league-average two-phase blocker. 

Cosmi is a 2021 second-rounder who started each of the past two seasons at RT and was actually decent there (71.6 and 74.9 PFF grades), but he’s kicking inside to RG this year to make room for Wylie, a 29-year-old veteran who spent the past six years with and made 59 starts for the Chiefs. An acceptable but unexceptional player, Wylie has one great asset: His long-term familiarity with Bieniemy’s system.

Lucas is a 32-year-old journeyman who has set up camp for the past three years with the Commanders, where he has made 27 starts as the swing tackle. An above-average pass protector and improving run blocker, Lucas might actually be a better RT option than Wylie.

Stromberg is a scheme-independent four-star third-round rookie who started four years in the SEC and has experience at all three interior spots but needs to refine his technique in the NFL. Larsen is theoretically redundant next to the younger and more pedigreed Stromberg, but his overall experience and specific familiarity with Rivera and OL coach Travelle Wharton stemming from his time on the 2016-19 Panthers and 2021-22 Commanders give him an edge. A good pass blocker, the 32-year-old Larsen has 29 career starts.

Daniels is a fourth-round rookie who started out at Utah at LG (18 starts), moved to RT (11) and finished at LT (14). He probably lacks the size (6-foot-4 and 294 pounds) to play on the interior in the NFL or to be a strong run blocker, but he has good athleticism (4.99-second 40-yard dash) and allowed just five sacks in his college career. Paul is a 2022 seventh-rounder who made one forgettable start at LG last year in Week 18.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Chase Young, Montez Sweat, 
• EDGE Backups: James Smith-Williams, Efe Obada, Casey Toohill, K.J. Henry
• DT Starters: Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne
• DT Backups: Phidarian Mathis, Abdullah Anderson, John Ridgeway
• Injured: DTs David Bada (triceps) & Curtis Brooks (undisclosed)
• Notable Turnover: DT Daniel Wise (Chiefs)
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Young was the No. 2 pick in 2020, when he made the Pro Bowl and won Defensive Rookie of the Year with 7.5 sacks, but since then he has just 1.5 sacks and has played only 12 games due to a severe knee injury (ACL, patellar tendon) that ended his 2021 and delayed his 2022 campaigns. Still, Young is a capable pass rusher and strong run defender who has never finished with an overall PFF grade lower than 75.0, and he could ball out as a contract-year player in his first full post-injury season. 

Sweat is a 2019 first-rounder who — like Young — hasn’t had an overall PFF grade lower than 75.0 over the past three years. He dominates against the run and has 22 sacks in Del Rio’s defense.

Smith-Williams is a 2020 seventh-rounder capable of giving consistently barely subpar production as a regular rotational edge rusher. Obada is a 31-year-old journeyman who played football with the London Warriors in 2014, joined the NFL in 2015 via the International Player Pathway Program and then caught on with Rivera’s Panthers in 2017 after spending two years on various practice squads. He can be counted on to give league-average second-string play due to his years of familiarity with the system (2017-19 Panthers, 2022 Commanders).

Toohill is a 2020 seventh-rounder with two sacks on 761 career snaps. Henry is a five-star fifth-round rookie project who has great athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 251 pounds) and football character (team captain), but his college production didn’t match his ability (13 sacks for career), and he lacks the strength to set the edge against the run.

Allen and Payne played together at Alabama and have years of experience working off of each other in the interior. Allen is a 2017 first-rounder who is a sufficient run defender but exceptional pass rusher with 16.5 sacks in his two 2021-22 Pro Bowl campaigns. He has the flexibility to play over the tackle as a true five-technique or to line up in the B gap.

Payne is a 2018 first-rounder with the size (6-foot-3 and 320 pounds) to play in the A gap, the speed (4.95-second 40-yard dash) to play in the B gap and the ability to play the run while rushing the passer. He made his first Pro Bowl last year with a career-high 11.5 sacks.

Mathis is a four-star 2022 second-rounder out of Alabama — I guess the Commanders have an interior DL type — who suffered a torn meniscus in Week 1 last year and missed the rest of the season. As a senior, he had nine sacks and 53 tackles as a strong two-phase producer.

Anderson is a 2018 UDFA journeyman now on his seventh team since 2020. He’s an average-at-best run defender but has never had a PFF pass rush grade below 62.5. Ridgeway is a 2022 fifth-rounder who had a 48.9 PFF grade on 279 snaps as a rookie.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jamin Davis, Cody Barton
• Backups: David Mayo, Khaleke Hudson, Milo Eifler
• Notable Turnover: Cole Holcomb (Steelers) & Jon Bostic (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Davis and Barton are asset/liability doppelgängers. Davis (2021 first-rounder) is a great tackler (75.7 PFF grade last year) but poor cover man (81.3% career completion rate). Barton (2019 third-rounder, offseason addition) is a great tackler (77.1 PFF grade) but poor cover man (74.8% completion rate). They’re both unnotable as pass rushers.

Mayo is a 30-year-old veteran who played for Rivera’s 2015-18 Panthers and joined the Commanders in 2021. He’s sufficient against the run but — like Davis and Barton — exploitable in coverage. Hudson (2020 fifth-rounder) and Eifler (2021 UDFA) are core special teamers.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Kendall Fuller, Emmanuel Forbes, Benjamin St-Juste
• CB Backups: Danny Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Jartavius (Quan) Martin
• S Starters: Kamren Curl, Darrick Forrest
• S Backups: Percy Butler, Jeremy Reaves
• Injured: CB Troy Apke (shoulder)
• Borderline: CB Christian Holmes
• Notable Turnover: CB Williams Jackson (free agent), S/CB Bobby McCain (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Fuller is a 2016 third-rounder who opened his career with the Commanders, went to Kansas City in 2018 in exchange for QB Alex Smith and then returned to Washington in 2020 on a four-year deal. Although he started out in the slot, he shifted to the perimeter when he returned to the Commanders and has been solid outside, allowing 7.0 yards per target and snagging eight interceptions over the past three years.

Forbes is an All-American first-round rookie with significant size concerns (6-foot-1 and 166 pounds) but great speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash), legitimate recruitment pedigree (four stars), lots of experience (three years as an SEC starter) and unreal ballhawking production (14 career interceptions, six pick-sixes).

He’s the ultimate “size of the fight in the dog” player. St-Juste is a 2021 third-rounder who has played primarily outside with the Commanders, but he seems poised to slide inside to make room for Forbes. With his size (6-foot-3 and 200 pounds), he’ll be a physical matchup for power slot receivers and good supporter in the run game, but St-Juste has been exploitable in coverage through two seasons (9.0 yards per target).

Johnson is a 2018 UDFA special teamer who has stepped up as a defender over the past two years (5.7 yards per target). With true/inside versatility, he’s a capable No. 4 CB with a shot to supplant St-Juste. Wildgoose is a 2021 sixth-rounder who underperformed (50.7 PFF grade) on 196 snaps last year. 

Martin is a second-round rookie who started at corner as a freshman, shifted to safety as a junior, and then settled in as the “star”/nickel as a super senior. He’s not big (5-foot-11 and 195 pounds), but he has good speed (4.46-second 40-yard dash) and can be an NFL slot, where the Commanders have played him throughout the preseason.

Holmes is a 2022 seventh-rounder who played 322 special teams snaps last year, got hyped as a training camp standout this summer, and then balled out in the preseason (90.1 PFF coverage grade). I’m not sure how — but somehow I think he’ll make the team.

Curl is a 2020 seventh-rounder who started 11 games as a rookie despite being a 21-year-old Day 3 pick, and he has improved steadily since then, finishing last year with PFF grades above 80 in both coverage and run defense. Best in the box but comfortable deep, Curl is one of the league’s best safeties yet to make a Pro Bowl. Forrest is a 2021 fifth-rounder who started 11 games last year and handled himself well (54.3% completion rate).

Butler is a 2022 fourth-rounder who got exposed (48.7 PFF grade) last year on 134 snaps, many of which came in Week 18. Reaves is a 2018 UDFA who has been an average-at-worst defender on 793 snaps over the past half decade, but he shines on special teams, where he racked up an absurd 16 tackles last year and earned a first-team All-Pro designation.

Specialists

• Kicker: Joey Slye
• Punter: Tress Way
• Holder: Tress Way
• Long Snapper: Camaron Cheeseman
• Kick Returner: Antonio Gibson
• Punt Returner: Dax Milne
• Borderline: P Michael Palardy

Slye is a 2019 UDFA who kicked for Rivera’s Panthers as a rookie and then journeyed his way via the Texans and 49ers to the Commanders in 2021. In his 23 games with the team, Slye has an 88.1% conversion rate and is 5-of-7 converting on attempts of 50-plus yards.

Way is a 33-year-old Commanders lifer who has been with the team since 2014. He has two Pro Bowls, one of which he earned last year, but he’s had lingering back tightness throughout training camp and hasn’t played in the preseason. If he’s unready for the beginning of the season, then Palardy (a 31-year-old veteran who played for the 2016-19 Panthers) will step in. 

Cheeseman is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has been long snapping for the team for two years. That the Commanders bothered to spend a draft pick on him means either that he’s good or they’re stupid. Maybe both.

Gibson was the primary kick returner for the Commanders last year and averaged a respectable 23.1 yards per return (the league average was 22.8). As a senior at Memphis, he was a dynamic specialist with a 28.0-yard average and one touchdown on 23 returns. Milne had a league-high 40 punt returns last year but subpar 7.8-yard average. In college, he averaged 5.0 yards. He’s not a great returner.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Commanders’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 24
• Home Division: NFC East
• Opposing Division: NFC West, AFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 6-10
• Opponents: at ATL, at NYG, vs. PHI, at NE, at SEA

The Commanders have the ninth-hardest schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents — but I think it’s realistically worse than that: They don’t have their bye until Week 14, their games are disadvantageously sequenced (in my opinion), and they have more matchups on the road (nine) than at home (eight). Only twice all year are they favored (Week 1 vs. Cardinals, Week 5 vs. Bears), and then after that they play four-of-five away.

Although there are other stretches of the season that I think are harder (Weeks 2-4, Weeks 13-18), this middle stretch has my attention because it’s the point in the schedule where the Commanders will need to accumulate wins if their season is not to be an absolute disaster. In Weeks 2-4 and 12-18, the Commanders are underdogs of at least +3 in every game but one. They could realistically go 0-9. So they need to get some wins in Weeks 6-10… and they’ll need to do it largely on the road, as underdogs in every game, with a second-year QB who will still have fewer than 10 NFL starts to his name.

Best of luck.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Commanders.

• Owner Josh Harris becomes embroiled in scandal because of a New York Times report — which drops shortly before Week 1 — alleging longtime workplace misconduct and embezzlement with the 76ers and Devils.
• GM Martin Mayhew publicly questions some of his coach’s end-game decisions following a close Week 3 home loss to the Bills.
• HC Ron Rivera walks off the field to a sustained standing ovation after a dramatic come-from-behind Week 5 home win over the Bears during which — at halftime — Adam Schefter breaks the news that Rivera plans to retire after the game because his cancer has returned.
• OC Eric Bieniemy is named interim HC and immediately proves himself incapable of managing both the team and the offense.
• DC Jack Del Rio is caught on camera quarreling with Bieniemy on the sideline in the fourth quarter of a Week 8 blowout loss at home to the Eagles and needs to be restrained by other coaches.
• QB Sam Howell struggles for the first half of the season and is benched at halftime in a Week 9 road loss to the Patriots.
• RB Brian Robinson dominates the rushing work in the backfield but averages 3.7 yards per carry while blocking RB Antonio Gibson’s path to opportunity.
• WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel hold a players-only meeting in Week 11 to address the negative-minded culture in the clubhouse — and a fight breaks out between the offense and defense.
• TE Logan Thomas stays healthy enough to play 16 utterly ineffective games.
• The OL crumbles around LT Charles Leno.
• EDGE Chase Young underperforms in the first month of the season and then suffers a hamstring pull that causes him to miss most of the second half.
• DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne both openly question the direction of the franchise in talking with the press following an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins right before the Week 14 bye.
• LBs Jamin Davis and Cody Barton pretend that coverage isn’t a real thing — they simply don’t believe in it.
• CB Emmanuel Forbes is repeatedly bullied by physical receivers and is finally made into a meme in Week 17 when he finds himself matched up all alone in man coverage against 49ers TE George Kittle, who outmuscles Forbes to catch a deep ball and then drags him 15 yards on his way to the end zone, where he finally stiff arms him into the ground at the goal line.
• PR Dax Milne scores a last-minute return touchdown in a meaningless Week 18 home game against the Cowboys to give the team a win, which ensures that the Commanders won’t have a top-two pick in the 2024 draft.
• Commanders go 4-13 (losing eight straight games after Rivera retires), fire Mayhew and Bieniemy and hire former HC Joe Gibbs to lead the search for the team’s next GM and HC, only for him to recommend Mike Shanahan as GM and Del Rio as HC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Commanders.

• Owner Josh Harris quickly endears himself to Washington fans by running a series of promotional giveaways and acting like a perfectly normal and nice human.
• GM Martin Mayhew admonishes a reporter for asking about Rivera’s employment status following a close Week 3 home loss to the Bills.
• HC Ron Rivera makes an impassioned halftime plea to his team — in what later becomes famously known as the “War of Men” speech — to trust each other and give everything they have to the effort at hand… and the team comes back from 20 points to get a key Week 5 win, which ends a three-game losing streak and kicks off a seven-game winning streak. 
• OC Eric Bieniemy shows that he’s not Andy Reid’s personal assistant.
• DC Jack Del Rio coordinates a top-five defense and starts to get a little buzz as a potential HC candidate.
• QB Sam Howell plays like a second-year QB who should’ve been drafted in Round 1.
• RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson both have 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
• WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel become one of the few trios in NFL history all to have 100 yards receiving in the same game in a Week 11 home blowout victory over the division rival Giants.
• TE Logan Thomas loses his starting job to John Bates, whom fans nickname “The Butler” thanks to his willingness to do all sorts of dirty work for the offense. 
• The OL solidifies around LT Charles Leno, who makes his second Pro Bowl.
• EDGE Chase Young gets some Defensive Player of the Year hype and even some low-key Comeback Player of the Year buzz on his way to finishing No. 2 in the league with 17 sacks.
• DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne tell reporters to print it in bold — “The Commanders will make the playoffs” — following an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins right before the Week 14 bye.
• LBs Jamin Davis and Cody Barton act as if coverage is at least something they should pretend to care about.
• CB Emmanuel Forbes wins Defensive Rookie of the Year and seals the deal with a game-clinching pick-six on his NFL-leading seventh interception of the year at home against the 49ers in Week 17.
• PR Dax Milne scores a last-minute return touchdown in a must-win Sunday Night Football Week 18 home game against the Cowboys to give the team a victory and send it to the postseason.
• Commanders go 10-7, beat the Lions by a field goal on the road on Super Wildcard Weekend thanks to a Howell-led game-winning drive and then lose by 27 points to the Eagles in Philadelphia in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Commanders as a strong “bet against” team primarily because of Howell, although I don’t especially trust Rivera as a coach.

In my opinion, one of the telltale signs of a bad coach is significant underperformance with lots of extra time to prepare. And Rivera has it.

• Rivera Off Bye: 5-10 ATS (28.9% ROI for faders)
• Rivera Off Bye: 6-9 ML (33.4% ROI for faders)  

If Howell smashes early in the season then I will quickly adjust my prior assumptions, but right now the Commanders look like a team I want to go against.

I will say this to the team’s credit: The defense is good, and it has a chance to be great. Over the past three years, the Commanders have been the No. 2 team in the league in profitability to the under at 31-18-2 (21.0% ROI), and a lot of that is because of their defense. 

If there’s a time this year when I’m relatively bullish on the Commanders, it will likely be because of their defense, and in that case my enthusiasm will probably manifest itself in an under — which is very on brand for me.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I normally don’t like to bet into a low-upside futures market unless we have a no-hold scenario. That’s not the case with the Commanders win total, where we’re close to the customary 20 cents of juice.

• Over 6.5 Wins: +100 (FanDuel)
• Under 6.5 Wins: -118 (BetRivers)

Ideally, if I like the over on a team’s win total, I’d like to leverage my bullishness at longer odds. Similarly, if I’m on the under, I could maybe level up my bearishness by betting the team not to make the playoffs at longer odds or maybe to score the fewest points in the league.

But in this case the best number for the Commanders not to make the playoffs is -340 (Caesars), and I don’t like them at +1000 (DraftKings) to lead the league in scoring futility: I have them projected for No. 3 in fewest points, so it’s within the range of outcomes, but if Howell is bad then the team could opt to jumpstart the offense (in theory) by benching him and playing Brissett, who is enough of a professional veteran to keep the offense from totally tanking.

So if you want to fade the Commanders, then the best option to do that is probably the win total market.

And I want to fade them. Hard.

Commanders Under 6.5 Wins (-118, BetRivers)

I have the Commanders projected for 5.4 wins. That’s the second-lowest in my projection set, higher than only the Cardinals.

So if you wanted to go into the alternative market and bet under 5.5 wins at +150 (DraftKings), I wouldn’t hate it (although I’d like to have longer odds for giving up an entire win).

And if you want to bet on the Commanders to have the league’s worst record at +1500 (FanDuel), where they have “only” the seventh-shortest odds (behind the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Texans and Rams, Raiders, and Colts), I’d see the virtue in it. That’s an intelligent way to leverage the thesis of “Commanders could be really bad this year.” It could hit. We know that their new owner — based on “The Process” with the 76ers — isn’t afraid to watch a team tank.

But I’ll stick with under 6.5 wins. Given his standing in the league and the organization, Rivera (I think) is unlikely to be fired midseason, and if he’s in Washington for the entire year he’ll keep the Commanders respectable enough to prevent them from finishing with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft.

But this team (in my opinion) has the league’s worst QB situation, given that it’s starting a second-year fifth-rounder with one NFL start to his name. It has vast uncertainty on offense with a new coordinator who doesn’t have a record of success calling plays. And it has yearly volatility on defense.

You put all that together, and it pushes me to under 6.5 wins: One of my favorite bets of the year.

You can tail the under on BetRivers, where you can get a free bet of up to $500 if your first bet loses when you sign up for a new account below!