2024 3M Open Course Preview and Early Bet: A 50-1 longshot to trust

Xander Schauffele took home his second major in three months last Sunday, shooting 65 in the final round of the Open to win by two. Schauffele put together one of the best final rounds in a major we’ve seen in some time but, like many of the top players, won't be making the trek to Minnesota this week.

The field instead will be led by 2022 3M Open winner Tony Finau, who missed the cut at Troon. He’ll be joined by the likes of Akshay Bhatia and Sahith Theegala, who also both missed the cut at the Open. Many of the top players struggled at Troon, so while all three men will be disappointed to have ended their major season on a sour note, none of the three should be avoided just based on the one poor week, where the weather played such a big factor.

Of note, is the fact that this year will be the third time in four seasons that this event has been played directly after the year’s last major. In each of the last two years, it was played on this slot on the schedule the winners (Champ ‘21, Hodges ‘23) had either taken the week off directly before winning (Champ) or had missed the cut at the Open (Hodges).

The 3M Open will be entering its sixth year on the PGA TOUR and while we do have some course data to go off, it’s not a huge sample size yet. The course has played relatively easy to date with the mid-summer slot rarely bringing in poor weather, but with a ton of water on the course (see below) there is a lot of variance with scoring. Today I’ll go over the course and also spotlight one player for betting. Then, on Wednesday, I’ll go over the rest of the bets.

Let’s dive in and get our 3M Open week started!

3M Open 2024 Course Preview 

• TPC Twin Cities – Blaine, Minn 
• Par: 71, 7,431 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Fairways: Bentgrass
• Rough: Bluegrass/fescue
• Design: Arnold Palmer (2000) 
• Renovation Architect (year): Steve Wenzloff (2018)
• Defending Champion: Lee Hodges

TPC Twin Cities is an immaculately shaped parkland course that traverses around a ton of man-made water areas (27 to be exact) and sand traps. The course was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000 but was renovated to host an official PGA event back in 2018. 

On the face of it, you’d figure that TPC Twin Cities might rank up there with some of the other more classic PGA venues that also feature a lot of water, like PGA National or TPC Sawgrass, in terms of toughness. However, despite often leading the PGA in water balls every season (pros lost 317 balls to the water during the event in 2022) Twin Cities generally plays as one of the easier courses on the PGA. Why? Because outside of the ginormous water traps, the course isn't all that difficult.

Yes, there are a ton of bunkers but most of those bunkers don't come into play for the pros, especially off the tee where players can take the driver out and hit into generous landing spots. Second, the course is dead flat. Unlike last week in Scotland, where mounds, fescue, and dead grass created a lottery of sorts off the tee, players are generally hitting their approaches off immaculate bentgrass fairways that won't challenge them in any way.

Third, the greens are big and easy to hit. The average GIR% at TPC Twin Cities is often 5-6% above the TOUR average meaning this event will eventually boil down to a putting contest and who is most opportunistic at sinking their chances.

Jul 30, 2023; Blaine, Minnesota, USA; Lee Hodges celebrates the win during the final round of the 3M Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

We have seen some big drivers of the golf ball have success at TPC Twin Cities, but as long as players aren’t a disaster off the tee, almost anyone can go low at this course. Neither 2020 winner Michael Thompson nor 2023 winner Lee Hodges are lengthy drivers of the ball, but both men had huge weeks on approach and putting that helped them reach -19 and -24 at this course, respectively.

Realistically, anyone trending well on approach at this venue should get an inordinate amount of looks at birdie or better, so while you shouldn’t ignore off-the-tee stats entirely, it’s a good week to look at opportunities gained, birdie or better chances, and, of course, strokes gained approach stats.

So how should we approach TPC Twin Cities for betting?

In terms of recent form, 2019 winner Matthew Wolff was playing just his fourth event on the PGA, and had finished T80 and MC in his last two starts, which perhaps speaks to how straightforward this course can play, even with all the water. The last three winners of the 3M Open (Champ, Finau, Hodges) had all finished T12 or better in one of their two previous leadup starts.

I wouldn’t put a ton of emphasis on course history this week, but Finau did finish T3 two years before his 2022 win at TPC Twin Cities, while Hodges finished T16 at this venue in 2022, the year before he won.

Ideally, from a stat perspective, we’d want our golfer to have the following: 

• Elite approaches
• Players who create birdie chances (birdie opportunities) at an elite rate
• A player capable of delivering a big week (multiple strokes gained) with the putter; most recent winners had posted recent “spike weeks” putting, directly before their win

Combining and weighing most of these stats into a model that targeted the last 24 rounds this week (heavier on approach and putting) gave me the following players as my top 10:

1. Tony Finau
2. Keith Mitchell
3. Luke Clanton
4. Tom Hoge
5. Keegan Bradley
6. Maverick McNealy
7. Andrew Novak
8. Akshay Bhatia
9. Ben Griffin
10. Chun-an Yu

The 3M Open has seen winning scores of 19-under par or better in three of the five seasons it has been on the PGA TOUR. Here are the top 10 players in Opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. 

1. Keith Mitchell
2. Tom Hoge
3. Joel Dahmen
4. McClure Meissner
5. Troy Merritt
6. Patton Kizzire
7. Luke Clanton
8. Chun-an Yu
9. Doug Ghim
10. Dylan Wu

Power this week can be advantageous, but players still tend to gain the most on approach at this venue as the need for closer approaches is vital on this easier venue. Here are the top 10 players in this field in Strokes Gained Approach stats over the last 24 rounds. 

1. Chun-an Yu
2. Kelly Kraft
3. Tony Finau
4. Chan Kim
5. Keith Mitchell
6. Ben Griffin
7. Tom Hoge
8. Troy Merritt
9. J.J. Spaun
10. Nick Hardy

Betting Facts and Stats for the 2024 3M Open

Below are the previous odds (week of) of the past five 3M Open winners. A couple of notes about these odds below:

• This event is in its sixth season but it’s already well known for long-shot winners, only once in the past five years has a player with odds less than +6000 won this event (Finau, ‘22)
• Further, the first three years of this event saw players with odds over +10000
• Both Hodges and Wolff managed their first-ever professional wins at this course, while Champ, Finau, and Thompson had already scored wins at other venues
• Two of the last three (‘21 and ‘23) 3M Opens were both played directly after the Open Championship. 2023 winner Lee Hodges missed the cut at the Open last season but was T12 in Scotland the week prior; 2021 winner Cameron Champ didn’t play the Open but finished T11 at the John Deere Classic the week prior

Below are the previous 5 winners of the 3M Open and their pre-event odds from the beginning of the week of the event.

(Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory)

Early Bet for 2024 3M Open

Adam Hadwin (+5000; DraftKings) 

• Top 10 (+500; DraftKings)

Hadwin isn’t going to overpower TPC Twin Cities, but he’s a terrific iron player who has the ability to get extremely hot with his putter. His T3 at the Memorial came just over a month ago weeks ago and saw him gain 7.6 strokes on approach. He was solid with his irons again in Scotland two weeks ago as well, gaining 3.7 strokes on approach there. 

He also ranks 9th in strokes gained putting on bentgrass over the last 24 rounds and had gained strokes putting in three straight events before the Open. Much like recent winners of this event in Lee Hodges and Michael Thompson, Hadwin is accurate enough that he shouldn’t get in much trouble off the tee at this venue, but his elite approach play can give him a chance to get hot with the putter, once again.

Overall, he’s played this event four times already and has shown good upside on these greens, landing finishes of T4 (2019) and T6 (2021). 

I also like the leadup for Hadwin who, like last year’s winner Lee Hodges, is coming into this year’s iteration off a missed cut at the Open; but still riding some very good in his long game.

Taking the weekend off (and missing the brutal conditions on the weekend at Troon) should only make him fresher for this week and give him a leg up on those who had to stick it out at the Open – or played in the thin mountain air at Truckee for the Barracuda.