For years, the AFC East has felt like a tyrannical regime. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick ruled over the division from 2001 through 2019, winning the AFC East crown 17 times in 19 years. The only exceptions were in 2002 — the year sandwiched in between three Super Bowl victories — and 2008, when Brady went down with a season-ending injury.
Since then, the division has had a new king: Josh Allen. He’s led the Bills to a division crown in four straight seasons, averaging 12 wins per year in the process. The team has yet to get over the hump in the playoffs, but they’ve basically been as good as you can be during the regular season.
Things feel a bit different heading into 2024. The Patriots are widely expected to be among the worst teams in football, but the other three teams all have legitimate claims to AFC East supremacy. The Jets and Dolphins will be looking to overthrow the Bills at the top, and all three have the potential for a deep playoff run.
Who will ultimately reign supreme? Let’s dive into my best bets for all four AFC East franchises.
BUFFALO BILLS
- Win Total: 10.5 Over (+135; Caesars), Under (-150; BetMGM)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-160; Caesars), No (+150; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +180 (Caesars)
- To Win AFC: +850 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +1700 (Caesars)
This feels like a bit of a transitional year for Buffalo. They’ll look very different on both sides of the ball, with their receiving corps and secondary undergoing a massive transformation.
On offense, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are now gone, leaving an uninspiring group in their absence. Curtis Samuel leads a stable of veteran journeymen, with Keon Coleman joining the fray as a second-round pick. How much this group is able to provide Allen could be the difference between another 10-plus wins and a disappointing campaign.
Allen has produced MVP-caliber numbers for years now, but his passing production didn’t take a leap until the team gave him a legit No. 1 pass-catcher in Diggs. They’ve finished top-six in points and yards per game in each of the past four seasons, but they were a bottom-10 unit in Allen’s two years without Diggs.
Of course, those were Allen’s first two years in the NFL. He’s grown tremendously as a quarterback since then, even if he still turns the ball over at a massive rate.
If you were going to build a quarterback to run your offense in 2024, he’d probably look a lot like Allen. He’s a big, strong-armed passer with the ability to throw through the elements in Buffalo. He’s also a one-man wrecking crew on the ground, similar to what Cam Newton was for the Panthers. He had a career-best 15 touchdowns in 2023, and he’s averaged nine scores per season in his six-year career.
Schematically, the Bills underwent a change toward the end of last season. They fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with Joe Brady, and Brady implemented a much more run-heavy scheme. They had a negative Dropback Over Expectation in their final six games (including the playoffs), and with their top pass-catchers from last season gone, that could continue in 2024.
Defensively, the Bills will be without their entire starting secondary from the beginning of last season. Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Dane Jackson are all gone, though they did play without those guys for much of last season. It’s not nearly as drastic a change as what the offense will undergo.
Ultimately, for this team to put together another strong season, Allen is going to have to be Superman. It’s the worst supporting cast he’s had in years, so he’s going to have to put the team on his back.
With that in mind, I like betting this team in a few different ways. To start, I’m going to take them to miss the playoffs at +150. The AFC is loaded, and I think the Bills dipping to third in this division is entirely possible.
However, I’m also going to bet on Allen to win the MVP at +850. If this team does win 10-plus games again, Allen is going to have put together a monster season. He should garner a lot of respect from the voters in that scenario, similar to how Patrick Mahomes did in his first year without Tyreek Hill.
Bets
- No playoffs (+150)
- Josh Allen to Win MVP (+850; DraftKings)
NEW YORK JETS
- Win Total: 9.5 Over (-150; BetMGM), Under (+132; FanDuel)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-145; BetMGM), No (+155; Caesars)
- To Win Division: +180 (Caesars)
- To Win AFC: +1100 (DraftKings)
- To Win Super Bowl: +2000 (DraftKings)
It’s easy to laugh at the Jets at this point. Aaron Rodgers was supposed to be the savior that finally got this team back to the postseason. Instead, he lasted just four plays before going down with a season-ending injury. The Jets could never recover, winning just seven games and missing the playoffs for the 13th-straight season. It’s the longest active drought in the league, and no one else is particularly close: The Broncos have the second-longest at just eight seasons.
With that in mind, it’s easy to write this team off once again. After all, it’s the same old Jets. Laughing stock of the league. Home of the butt fumble, where starting quarterbacks see ghosts.
But that would be a mistake.
On paper, this team has the potential to be one of the best in football. It starts with Rodgers, who has to stay healthy and prove that he has something left in the tank. He’ll turn 41 years old this season, so that’s far from a guarantee.
Still, I’ll take a 41-year-old Rodgers vs. the combination of Zach Wilson and Trevor Seimian every day of the week. Even if Rodgers isn’t the MVP version of himself, he’s still going to give the team a massive upgrade at the position. Wilson was dead last among qualified QBs in EPA + CPOE composite in 2023, and Seimian was somehow even worse. He finished with the fourth-worst PFF grade among all QBs who took a snap last season, finishing above only Clayton Tune, Logan Woodside and P.J. Walker.
I don’t care if Rodgers throws left-handed — he can’t possibly be worse than that.
Rodgers will also have plenty of talent to work with. Breece Hall has established himself as one of the most talented running backs in football, while Garrett Wilson is a bonafide No. 1 option at receiver. The team also added Mike Williams in free agency, and when healthy he’s had a tremendous impact.
If the offense can even get to just league average, that should be good enough to win games with their defense. Despite being on the field at the eighth-highest rate last season, the Jets’ D was elite. They were third in EPA/play defensively, and they were No. 1 in the league from Week 8 on.
The Jets also have an extremely favorable schedule in 2024. They have the fourth-easiest schedule in terms of opponent win totals, which is the top mark in the division. They’ll also have a larger rest edge than the Bills and Dolphins, which is the cherry on top.
Ultimately, I see this as the clear best team in the division. I’m grabbing the value with them to win the AFC East, and I think they can contend for a Super Bowl as well. Their odds to win the AFC at +1100 on DraftKings stand out as a particularly nice value — they’re as low as +850 at other locations.
Bets
- Jets to win Division (+180)
- Jets to win AFC (+1100)
MIAMI DOLPHINS
- Win Total: 9.5 Over (-122; FanDuel), Under (+120; BetMGM)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (-135; Caesars), No (+135; DraftKings)
- To Win Division: +220 (FanDuel)
- To Win AFC: +1200 (BetMGM)
- To Win Super Bowl: +2500 (Caesars)
If we remove the quarterback position, the Dolphins are probably the best team in the division. They have one of the best head coaches in football, and their offense is loaded with game-breaking speed at every position. Trying to account for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane at the same time is borderline unfair, particularly with Mike McDaniel drawing things up.
However, we can’t just ignore quarterback. It’s the most important position in football, and Tua Tagovailoa still has to answer a bunch of questions.
Tua did manage to play all 17 games for the first time in his career last season, and he responded by leading the league in passing yards. However, the way he did it left a lot to be desired.
When the Dolphins were playing against subpar competition, they had no problems running up the score. They were 10-1 against teams that failed to make the postseason last year, winning by an average of approximately 18 points per game.
However, when the difficulty was cranked up, the Dolphins failed to meet expectations. They went just 1-6 against playoff opponents and were outscored by nearly 16 points per game.
The biggest red flag for Tua came in the postseason. The Dolphins had to leave the friendly confines of Miami and head to Arrowhead to play in subpar conditions. It was freezing cold with strong winds, and Tagovailoa simply didn’t have the arm strength to compete. The Dolphins managed just seven points and 264 yards of total offense, which is not going to get the job done in January.
The Dolphins’ schedule is going to be significantly tougher than it was last year. They’re scheduled to play 10 games against teams that were above .500 last season, and that doesn’t include two matchups with the Jets. They’ll end the season with road games against the Jets and Browns, two elite defenses in cities where weather could be a factor.
Ultimately, do you trust Tua to get the job done when it matters most? Unless the Dolphins have already wrapped up a postseason spot by those final two contests, I don’t like their chances.
That’s enough to push me toward Under 9.5 wins (+120) and no postseason (+135). They’re also an elite candidate for an in-season under. They play the second-easiest schedule in football through Week 12 but the second-hardest from that point on. They could jump out to a strong record before fading down the stretch, just like we’ve seen from them in years past.
Bets
- No playoffs (+135)
- Potential for in-season Under
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
- Win Total: 4.5 Over (-130; Caesars), Under (+120; BetMGM)
- To Make Playoffs: Yes (+950; Caesars), No (-1600; BetMGM)
- To Win Division: +2800 (Caesars)
- To Win AFC: +12500 (Caesars)
- To Win Super Bowl: +30000 (FanDuel)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Patriots were the gold standard of the NFL for so long, winning six championships during the Brady and Belichick era. That combination won bettors a lot of money, pairing elite playoff production with an elite regular-season ATS record.
Those days feel like 100 years ago.
Brady left in 2020, winning a championship for the Buccaneers, while Belichick stepped down after 2023. The last remnants of the Patriots’ dynasty are nowhere to be found, with the team starting a new era in 2024.
That starts with a new head coach and a new franchise quarterback. The team drafted Drake Maye with the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, replacing previous first-rounder Mac Jones. Maye looked good in extended preseason action in Week 2, but he still has a lot of questions to answer.
For most of the offseason, the reports on Maye have not been particularly promising. One Patriots’ beat reporter described him as “the ghost of Mac Jones,” while others have said that sixth-round rookie Joe Milton has been more impressive. None of that ultimately matters, but it’s not exactly what you want to hear when you invest the No. 3 pick on a quarterback.
Making matters worse, the Patriots are giving their young quarterback virtually no help. They have arguably the worst group of skill-position players in football. Rhamondre Stevenson is a capable running back, but none of the Patriots’ pass-catchers stand out. Their offensive line was also a disaster last season, ranking dead last in ESPN’s pass block win rate. It’s not exactly the ideal set of circumstances for a young quarterback.
On the other side of the ball, the team still does have some promise. However, their pass rush took a big loss last season after Matthew Judon went down with an injury, and the team just traded Judon to the Falcons. They have no obvious replacement from free agency or the draft, so the pass rush should struggle again after ranking 27th in win rate last season.
There’s not one redeeming quality for the Patriots to hang their hat on in 2024. They have to play the second-hardest schedule in all of football, and they’re currently listed as underdogs in all 17 games.
You could play the under on their current win total, but if you’re going to do that, you might as well go all-in. They’re +320 to finish with the worst record on DraftKings, and that’s more than good enough for me.
Bets
- Patriots worst record in NFL (+320; DraftKings)
