The AFC West has come to be known as the Chiefs’ kingdom. They’ve won the division in eight consecutive years, and they’ve made the playoffs in 10 of 11 years since Andy Reid took over as head coach. Of course, they took things to another level when Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback, making it to six straight conference championships while winning three Super Bowls.

The Chiefs are expected to continue their dominance once again, with the rest of the division expected to pose minimal resistance. The Broncos will likely be breaking in a rookie quarterback, while the Raiders and Chargers have new head coaches.

That said, crazy things happen in the NFL every year. Very few expected the Texans to win the AFC South last season — they were +1100 on Sept. 7 — so there’s always a chance for someone to surprise.

Let’s dive into my favorite bet for each squad in the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Win Total: 11.5 Over (-112; FanDuel), Under (+100; Caesars)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (-480; FanDuel), No (+450; BetMGM)
  • To Win Division: -230
  • To Win AFC: +350 (FanDuel)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +600 (FanDuel)

Have the Chiefs reached dynasty status at this point? I think so. Three Super Bowls in five years is something that has only previously been done by the Patriots (twice) and Cowboys, and they’re among the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy once again.

The scary part is that the Chiefs weren’t even that good last season. From an offensive standpoint, it was the weakest version of the Mahomes-led Chiefs we’ve ever seen. They were just 15th in points per game, ninth in yards per game and 11th in EPA per play. Before last season, the team had never finished worse than sixth in yards or points per game in the Mahomes era.

The team sorely missed the deep component of their passing attack. When they threw the ball on early downs, they averaged just 5.2 air yards per attempt. That wasn’t just the lowest mark in the league; it was the lowest mark for any team dating back to at least 2006. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs’ also ranked last in percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage and percentage of throws at least 20 yards downfield.

The Chiefs worked hard to address their offensive deficiencies in the offseason. They acquired Marquise Brown in free agency and used their first-round pick on WR Xavier Worthy. Both guys are known for their speed, so the Chiefs should have significantly more downfield options in 2024. Brown might miss the start of the season after suffering an injury in the team's first preseason game, but it’s ultimately not expected to cost him a ton of game time.

The Chiefs are going to need better offensive production in 2024 because they’re not likely to get the same results from their defense. They had the best defense of the Mahomes era by a long shot in 2023, ranking second in the league in points and yards per game allowed. Chris Jones is still there to anchor their defensive front, but they lost key contributors in L’Jarius Snead, Mike Edwards and Willie Gay Jr.

One major factor working in the Chiefs’ favor this season is the schedule. Last year, they had to navigate a brutal stretch of late-season games where they were at a rest disadvantage. They had a two-plus day rest disadvantage for five straight games from Weeks 13 through 17, and they went just 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS in those contests. In their other 15 games, the Chiefs were a sparkling 13-3 straight up and 12-4 ATS (including playoffs).

The Chiefs have a much more advantageous schedule from a rest perspective in 2024. They’ll have five games with a rest advantage vs. their opponent, and they’ll be at a rest disadvantage twice. Given how productive they were in that split last season — and Andy Reid’s reputation when given additional time to prepare — that should lead to better results.

Ultimately, getting the Chiefs at -230 to win the AFC West feels like stealing. That translates to an implied probability of just 69.7%, and I think their actual odds of winning the division are significantly better. I’ll also have some exposure on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. As long as Mahomes remains the best quarterback in football, there’s no reason to expect much regression.

Bets

  • Chiefs to win division (-230)
  • Chiefs to win Super Bowl (+600)

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Win Total: 8.5 Over (-144; FanDuel), Under (+135; BetMGM)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (+112; FanDuel), No (-120; BetMGM)
  • To Win Division: +350 (Caesars)
  • To Win AFC: +2200 (DraftKings)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +4500 (DraftKings)

The Chargers are going to undergo a serious change in 2024. While Justin Herbert remains under center, almost everything around him will be different. Franchise stalwarts Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen are gone, while the team will feature a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh.

This is not Harbaugh’s first go-around as an NFL head coach. He previously oversaw a very successful franchise in San Francisco, leading the team to at least 11 wins in three consecutive seasons. He hit the over on his preseason win total in each of those years, so expectations are high for Harbaugh with the Chargers.

Schematically, it’s no secret what Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman want to do: run the football. With the 49ers, that duo was 23rd in early down dropback rate and 30th in overall dropback rate. That represents a big change from what Herbert has seen in his career to date: From 2020-2023, the Chargers dropped back to pass at the third-highest frequency.

The big question is, can that strategy be effective in 2024? The NFL has changed quite a bit since 2011, and Harbaugh isn’t going to have Frank Gore to lean on in the run game. Instead, he’s going to have a very unexciting trio in Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins and sixth-round rookie Kimani Vidal.

Additionally, he’s not going to have the same defense he had with the 49ers. The Chargers' defense has been a disaster in recent years, despite the fact that they spent the second-most money in the league on defense in the past two seasons. They were 24th in EPA/play defensively and 26th in EPA/dropback in 2023.

The Chargers do benefit from one of the easiest groups of opponents this season, ranking second in strength of schedule based on opponent win totals. However, that doesn’t account for when they’ll play each team. The schedule makers did the Chargers zero favors this season, particularly late in the year. They’ll get their bye out of the way in Week 5, and they’ll be at a 17-day rest disadvantage vs. their opponents from Week 8 on. Ultimately, they’ll play five opponents with extra time to prepare and zero opponents on a short week.

Add it all up, and the expectations for the Chargers feel too high in Harbaugh’s first season. I’m willing to bet on this team missing the playoffs at -120.

Bets

  • No playoffs (-120)

Las Vegas Raiders

  • Win Total: 6.5 Over (-130; DraftKings), Under (+145; Caesars)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (+310; FanDuel), No (-340; Caesars)
  • To Win Division: +1000 (Caesars)
  • To Win AFC: +6000 (DraftKings)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +10000 (DraftKings)

Antonio Pierce was able to turn an interim head coaching position into a full-time gig with a strong close to the season last year. He propelled the Raiders to a 5-4 record after taking over in Week 9, and the defense was No. 2 in EPA/play during his tenure. It’s clear that this team hated previous coach Josh McDaniels, so they were excited to play for someone they respected.

While the Raiders’ results under Pierce were impressive, they did face an extremely favorable schedule over that time frame. Four of their five wins came against Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, Easton Stick and Jarrett Stidham. The other was against Mahomes, and while beating Mahomes and the Chiefs is always impressive, they won by six points after scoring two defensive touchdowns.

Pierce’s philosophy on offense was pretty simple: Don’t shoot yourself in the foot. The Raiders were extremely conservative, and they turned the ball over on just 4% of their drives, which was the lowest mark in the league. That kind of strategy can work when you’re playing bad teams. When opponents made mistakes, the Raiders capitalized: They were 7-3 in games when they forced a turnover and 1-6 when they didn’t.

The Raiders also benefited from some good fortune. They were No. 2 in terms of injury luck, and their offense miraculously got better whenever they were in field goal range. They converted 52% of third downs in that scenario, compared to just 36% in all other situations.

The Raiders don’t figure to be much better offensively in 2024. In fact, they could be worse after losing Josh Jacobs in free agency. The combination of Aiden O’Connell and Gardner Minshew gives the Raiders arguably the worst QB duo in all of football.

The team is going to have to navigate a very difficult schedule as well. They’ll play the ninth-hardest schedule in terms of opponent win totals, and they’re currently favored in just two of their 17 contests (Week 3 vs. Panthers, Week 12 vs. Broncos).

There are lots of ways for things to go wrong for the Raiders this season, so getting the under on 6.5 wins at +145 feels like a strong option. The Raiders are priced significantly more aggressively at Caesars than across the rest of the industry.

Bets

  • Under 6.5 wins (+145)

Denver Broncos

  • Win Total: 5.5 Over (-102; FanDuel), Under (-115; BetMGM)
  • To Make Playoffs: Yes (+760; FanDuel), No (-750; BetMGM)
  • To Win Division: +2000 (FanDuel)
  • To Win AFC: +15000 (DraftKings)
  • To Win Super Bowl: +30000 (DraftKings)

Last season was a bizarre one for the Broncos. They ultimately finished with a respectable 8-9 record, but the way they got there was a rollercoaster. They dropped five of their first six games before rattling off five straight wins, only to lose four of their final six to end the year.

The big story for the Broncos last year was the relationship between head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson. On paper, Wilson’s numbers were a solid improvement from his first year in Denver. He racked up 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, and he was 13th in EPA + CPOE composite. He wasn’t actively helping the Broncos win games early in the year, but he wasn’t exactly killing them, either.

However, the way that Wilson was racking up his numbers left a lot to be desired. He insisted on holding the ball as long as possible before checking down behind the line of scrimmage or chucking it deep downfield. He threw 27% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage, which was the highest rate out of 509 QBs since 2005. Sixty-two percent of his passes were within five yards of the LOS, which ranked second over the same sample.

The intermediate passing game — which Payton ran to perfection with Drew Brees in New Orleans — was nowhere to be found. It’s a big reason why the Broncos ultimately paid Wilson $85M to go away this offseason.

The team will presumably hand the reigns to Bo Nix in 2024, and he’s a much better fit with Payton stylistically. That said, it remains to be seen if he’s actually capable of being an NFL quarterback. He was excellent in his final two seasons in college, but he didn’t break out until he was 22.5 years old. He didn’t start dominating until he was three to four years older than his peers, which puts him in the 11th percentile.

Nix is going to get very little help from his teammates on defense. The Broncos had previously employed one of the best defenses in football, but that completely evaporated in 2023. Without Bradley Chubb, the team dropped to 25th in EPA/play defensively and 27th in dropback EPA. Even after removing the absolute drumming that they received at the hands of the Dolphins, they still graded out as a well below-average unit.

Expectations for this team are extremely low heading into 2024. Their win total sits at just 5.5, which is better only than the Patriots’ mark of 4.5. They’re +600 to finish with the worst record in football, which is also better only than the Patriots (+300).

One interesting way to bet on the Broncos’ futility is to back Payton as the first coach to be fired. That seems unlikely, but he wouldn’t be the first marquee coach to come out of retirement only to fall flat on his face. It’s one thing to win with a Hall of Fame quarterback, but Payton has shown zero ability to win without Brees under center. If the Nix era gets off to a rough start, it’s possible that the Broncos’ front office might look to go in a different direction.

Bets

  • Sean Payton first coach fired (+1200)