2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Course Preview and Betting Breakdown

The Byron Nelson is back at TPC Craig Ranch for the fourth straight season. This event used to be one of the premier stops on the PGA TOUR but fell out of favor about a decade or so ago, and it's since been plagued recently by venue changes and the very volatile Texas spring weather.

In 2024, the event also underwent a sponsorship change. The Byron Nelson has replaced its long-time partner, AT&T, with South Korean-based CJ Logistics, which now sponsors this event and several Korean players on the PGA TOUR.

Regarding schedule, the Byron Nelson once again falls in an awkward place between two majors, which has left them with no headliner this year outside of longtime supporter and Texas resident Jordan Spieth. Spieth is well outside of the top 10 of the OWGR, but like other top names in this field, he’ll be looking to put in a strong week before the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in two weeks. 

Some other quick notes about the event:

• It’s a 154-man field with the cut line taking place after Friday (top 65 players and ties).
• Spieth leads the betting odds and is coming off a forgettable stretch, which includes an MC at Augusta and a T39 at the RBC Heritage. 
• The course changed to a par 71 for 2023 (and remains so in 2024), but the winning score has been 23 under par or better in each of the three seasons it's been played at Craig Ranch.
• Heavy thunderstorms are in the forecast, which could cause delays on Thursday or during the weekend, and they will likely lead to very soft conditions.

Betting Odds for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Spieth headlines this week at an event he’s played 11 times in the past. He has a long history with the Byron, dating back to his amateur days when he got an invite to compete as a teenager, and Spieth recently finished in second place at Craig Ranch back in 2022.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top 10 in betting odds (DraftKings):

Behind Spieth are a couple of in-form players in Si Woo Kim and Alex Noren, both of whom are playing solid tee-to-green golf but have yet to see their putters heat up enough to grab a win in 2024. There's also a lot of inconsistent talent lurking in the +2500 range with Byeong Hun An, Tom Kim, and Min Woo Lee, who managed his way to a T22 at the Masters in his last start.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Course Preview

TPC Craig Ranch - McKinney, TX

• Par 71
• 7,414 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Designer: Tom Weiskopf

Past winners

• 2023: Jason Day +1600
• 2022: KH Lee +10000
• 2021: KH Lee +17500

TPC Craig Ranch is a Tom Weiskopf design that emphasizes good iron play and aggressiveness. At its core, it’s a fun course that doesn’t stress players much off the tee but does require them to be aggressive with their approaches thanks to the expansive greens that can force tougher pin placements.

That’s why it’s been a favorite of names like two-time Byron Nelson winner KH Lee (2021 and 2022), Si Woo Kim (second in 2023), and Sam Burns (second in 2021). All three are players who like to be aggressive with their irons and excel when they don’t have to worry about short games or off-the-tee placement quite as much.

July 20, 2023; Hoylake, ENGLAND, GBR; KH Lee plays his shot from the fourth tee during the first round of The Open Championship golf tournament at Royal Liverpool. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The venue is a traditional Par 71 and does play somewhat long at 7,414 yards. The par 4s make up the meat of the course, as seven par 4s play over 450 yards in length. As a result, Players need to be on point from outside of 150 yards with their approaches. But with rain in the forecast again for 2024, a half-decent drive off the tee will likely make some of these longer holes potential birdie opportunities.

The Par 5s all rated out as very easy (No. 5 and No. 9 played under 4.5 strokes last season), and none are longer than 570 yards on the scorecard. This again makes targeting players who are trending well on longer approaches key, as they’ll be the ones with the majority of the eagle chances this week.

Craig Ranch also lines up well with Weiskopf’s other PGA design, TPC Scottsdale. Scottsdale also features a few more penalty areas for errant shots but still allows for scoring and generally rewards good aggressive shot-making. If we’re going by past scoreboards, Scottsdale, along with TPC Twin Lakes and PGA National, have all been good corollary courses to look at for Craig Ranch.

Stat notes

• Strokes Gained Approach: The last three winners at TPC Craig Ranch gained over 5.0 strokes on approach for the week of their win. 
• Strokes Gained Around the Greens: This has been the least important category for past winners. Lee (2021) and Day (2023) both gained just 1.0 in SG: ATG stats. The softer and somewhat larger greens make this more of a putting contest.
• Proximity: Both Day and Lee were leaders in proximity on approach with 175 to 200 yards being a key range for both men.

Best Bets for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson 

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While many are outright plays for me, I like playing some of these names in the placing department as well. As such, I’ve included placing options for some names if you'd like to construct a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.

Tom Kim

• Outright (+2800, DraftKings)

Kim’s Sunday 66 at the Masters a few weeks ago was one of the best rounds of the tournament, and he followed that up with a decent effort at the RBC Heritage, where he posted a T18 (and cashed the top-20 bet we featured him in).

He was soundly positive in both strokes gained, putting, and approach stats at Hilton Head and managed to close off his week in decent fashion despite some poor weather on Sunday.

Apr 11, 2024; Augusta, Georgia, USA; Tom Kim plays his shot from the fourth tee during the first round of the Masters Tournament. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The South Korean has had issues off the tee all season, but TPC Craig Ranch isn’t very penal off the tee, and we saw last year how aggressive iron players like Kim’s countryman Si Woo Kim can prosper at this layout.

Both men are also former winners at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), where low scoring is also the name of the game. Kim will certainly welcome this kind of birdie-fest environment. From a talent perspective, he’s got the clear best upside for me in this range, and with a weaker favorite this week in Spieth, Kim makes sense as a starting point for outright bets.

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Byeong Hun An

• Each-way ¼ top-5 (+2800, Bet365)

I have no idea which Benny An will show up this week: the one who was second behind Scottie Scheffler in ball-striking stats after two rounds of the RBC Heritage or the Benny An who went out and shot 80 in round four in that same event. The good news is that we can take some of the variance out of the picture with An. He already has two top-fives on the season (Sony Open and The Sentry), so I like betting him with a placement bet or each-way bet here.

It’s worth noting that An’s transgressions at the RBC also masked a career-best effort the week prior at Augusta, where he finished T16 and was solid all week on and around the greens. An putted quite well (for him) on Augusta’s Bentgrass greens (1.64 putts per hole), and the move this week off of Bermuda/Poa overseed to pure Bentgrass greens may be a welcome sight. He certainly played well at this venue last season (T14), and softer greens in 2021 helped another perennial average putter in KH Lee notch his first-ever PGA victory.

On top of sharing South Korean citizenship, Lee and An have also thrived at many of the same venues, including another Tom Weiskopf design in TPC Scottsdale, where Lee finished T2 in 2021 and An has posted multiple top-10s. Coming off a week of rest and now in a much more gettable field (and on a plus venue), An’s a solid add for me in this range given that he’s outperformed many of the top names in the field this season.

Tom Hoge

• Outright (+3300, BetMGM)
• Top-10 (+320, BetMGM)

I think it’s also prudent to give Tom Hoge a shot this week, a player who's looked close to breaking through all season. The 34-year-old is lethal with his irons and has consistently ranked as one of the top players in proximity over the last year or so on the PGA. That’s significant, as aggressiveness is needed at this venue. It’s a trait that helped KH Lee find the winner’s circle two years running at Craig Ranch between 2021 and 2022.

Hoge ranks top-15 in proximity from 200-plus yards as well as from 150 to 175 yards, and he's already posted a decent result at Craig Ranch previously with a T17 in 2022. Additionally, he’s shown good upside at courses like TPC Scottsdale (T14 2022 and T17 2024) and TPC Twin Lakes (T6 2023), both venues where longer approaches are emphasized.

Aug 17, 2023; Olympia Fields, Illinois, USA; Tom Hoge hits his tee shot from the 15th tee during the first round of the BMW Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The American is coming off a T18 finish at the RBC, where he finished in a somewhat comedic fashion with a 9 on the Par 4 final hole. The score erased what had been a very solid week for Hoge, but his error there (and the fact he missed the cut at the chaotic team event in New Orleans) also means that he’s available at better odds than our first two selections.

Given the strong setup and Hoge's recent form (six top-20s in his last eight starts), it’s more than enough ammo for me to include him as our final play in this range.

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The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Longshot Bets

Mark Hubbard

• Each-way 1/5 top-8 (+5500, Bet365)

Hubbard’s what you would call a bit of a specialist from a player profile perspective. He’s turned into a very solid iron player (26th in approach stats over the last 24 rounds), but the rest of his game can come and go with the same ferociousness of a Texas Thunderstorm. That can lead to some blowup holes, which does make him frustrating to back at times. However, it can also lead to rounds where everything comes together, and Hubbard ends up besting the field by multiple strokes.

It’s never easy to tell when a player like Hubbard might be able to pull together four solid days, but after having made 11 cuts in a row now, this week feels like as good a time as any to take a stab with the 34-year-old. He’s on a course where his driver won’t be able to get him in much trouble thanks to the expansive fairways.

Plus, Hubbard's aggressive iron play should pay off with plenty of birdie chances on these softer greens. He’s also made the cut at this venue in each of the past two seasons, having gained multiple strokes on approach and on the greens on both occasions. Whatever the case, after having nearly tasted victory last week with a T3 at the Zurich Classic, this feels like a good time to back Hubbard at very playable prices.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Placement Bets

Brandon Wu

• Top-20 (+700, Bet365)

Brandon Wu isn't the most consistent player on the PGA, but he's shown the ability to shed poor current form quickly, especially when he’s up against weaker PGA fields. Despite having already missed six cuts this year, Wu has also already landed two top-20 finishes in 11 starts (18%). That kind of hit rate is already giving us a small edge over the 11% implied probability from his +700 top-20 odds this week.

February 1, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Brandon Wu putts on the 10th hole during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Wu also showed form in Punta Cana recently, as he managed a second-round 64 to get himself a much-needed made-cut. Hopefully, he can build off that round this week, and he played well at this venue last season (T23) as well. And with this event having featured plenty of surprise names in the top 20 last year (Zecheng (Marty) Dou, Peter Kuest, and Richy Werenski to name a few), Wu makes sense as a longshot placing bet to add to cards.

Davis Riley

• Top-20 (+450, BetMGM)

I bet Davis Riley as an outright play at longer odds early in the week, but he's still available (as of writing) at +15000 on BetMGM. Taking a flier on the talented Riley at those kinds of odds is fine, but if you’re already feeling squeezed with multiple outright targets and want a lower variance bet, the +450 on BetMGM for Riley in the top-20 market also looks enticing.

Riley played well at Craig Ranch when he was in solid form back in 2022, and his iron game flashed some serious upside a few starts ago in Houston, where he finished T14 and gained 5.4 strokes on approach. Riley’s also won in Texas before on the Korn Ferry Tour and outside of the Valero. Plus, he's had plenty of success in this state on the PGA, having posted a T4 finish at the Charles Schwab in 2022, a T14 in Houston last month, and his T9 at this event back in 2022 as well.

Taking a piece of both Wu and Riley in this same market gives us two chances of making a decent profit without the need for huge investments thanks to their longer odds.