2024 Genesis Invitational Betting Breakdown. Course Preview, Best Bets, and more.

The Genesis Open has a long history on the PGA Tour, having first been played 98 years ago as the Los Angeles Open way back in 1926. Since 1999, the Genesis Open has been played at Riviera Country Club, which has turned into one of the preeminent courses on the PGA Tour and is widely considered one of the best setups we see all season (outside of the majors).

Not that this event needed more panache, but a few years ago when Genesis took over as the title sponsor of this event, they teamed up with Tiger Woods and his TGR Foundation to make this event an Invitational (hosted by Tiger, of course).

Since then, the field has become more restrictive with an enhanced prize purse. This year, the tournament is also one of the PGA’s “signature events”, meaning that there's a $20 million prize pool with $4 million going to the winner.

The field is also the smallest we’ve ever seen it this year. Around 70 golfers will tee it up this week (the top-50 from last year’s FedEx Cup standings along with some other earned exemption spots) with the 50 players and ties making the weekend.

There's also a new rule that anyone within 10 strokes of the lead after Round 2 will get to play the weekend, so the majority of the field will get in four rounds of play. 

Genesis Invitational Betting Odds

With this week being a signature event, we have a lot of the top names in the field. Here are the top 10 golfers in betting odds per DraftKings for the Genesis Open: 

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy (No. 1 and No. 2 in the OWGR, respectively) are both teeing it up with McIlroy making just his second PGA start of the season.

The Northern Irishman did win the Hero Dubai Desert Classic a month ago but will be looking to book some PGA points this week to get his season on track.

McIlroy has the experience advantage, having played this venue seven times prior (three top-10 finishes), but Scheffler has played this event five times, having finished T12 and T7 in his last two starts at Riviera.

Tiger Woods (+13000, DraftKings) is playing Riviera for the sixth time in seven years this week and will look for his fifth made cut in a row at this event.

Genesis Invitational Course Preview

Riviera Country Club – Pacific Palisades 

• Par 71
• 7,322 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua
• Fairways: Kikuyu
• Rough: Kikuyu

Past winners

• 2023: Jon Rahm
• 2022: Joaquin Niemann
• 2021: Max Homa
• 2020: Adam Scott
• 2019: JB Holmes

Course layout

Par 3s 

• 150-175 yards: 1
• 175-200 yards: 2
• 225+ yards: 1

Par 4s 

• <350 yards: 1
• 350-400 yards: 0
• 400-450 yards: 4
• 450-500 yards: 6
• 500+ yards: 0

Par 5s

• 500-550 yards: 1
• 550-600 yards: 2

In terms of setup, Riviera is more challenging than the average resort or TPC venue. It has a lot of low, overhanging trees that make driving the ball difficult as well as a long Kikuyu rough that's tough to play out of should you miss the fairway.

The greens are slightly bigger than normal, but the fast Poa greens are also some of the toughest in the world. For this reason, Riviera often gets compared to Augusta National, and perhaps rightfully so. Over the past decade, we've seen seven wins from four eventual Masters winners – Bubba Watson x3, Adam Scott x2, Dustin Johnson, and Jon Rahm.

While the venue is long for a par 71 at over 7,300 yards, it’s still the approach game that matters the most. Three of the last four winners have gained over 6.0 strokes on approach for the week. However, it’s not a wedge fest, and players will be challenged by a layout that often forces longer approach shots due to the amount of longer par 4s and doglegs built into the course.

Riviera also has a long par 3 (236 yards), which plays as one of the toughest holes every year, as well as perhaps the most controversial par 4 in golf in the drivable 10th hole. Number 10 only measures in at 315 yards but has a green that's nearly impossible to hold without a perfect chip shot.

Stat notes

• Course history: Eight of the last 10 winners had recorded a top-15 finish at Riviera in a previous season.
• Strokes gained: approach: Three of the last four winners gained over 6.0 strokes on approach.
• Proximity and strokes gained from 150-200 yards: Players will have the majority of approaches from this basket of distances this week.

Genesis Invitational Winner Trends 

• Of the last 13 winners of the Genesis Open, 11 played Pebble Beach or Phoenix as their final start before winning Genesis (eight Pebble and three Phoenix).
• Only two of the last 12 winners have MC'd in their final start prior to winning (Holmes in 2019 and Watson in 2016).
• Eight of the last 10 winners have recorded a previous top-15 finish at Riviera (Hahn and Niemann exceptions and had made cut here previously). Those top-15 finishes came in one of the player's previous three starts at Riviera. 
• Seven of the last 10 winners have recorded a T15 or better in one of their previous two PGA starts before winning at Riviera.

Genesis Invitational Best Bets

Cameron Young

• Each-way top-5 (+4000, Bet365)
• Top-10 (+430)
• Top-20 (+125)

I like chasing Cameron Young at these odds. While he’s struggled to find the same consistent form that led him to post three second-place and three third-place finishes in 2022 (two of those came in the majors), Young has still managed to put up several decent results since that breakthrough season.

Further, while Young has proven capable of exploding on a variety of different layouts, it seems very likely that his superior off-the-tee play (and ability to spike with his putter) will eventually lead to something great on a course like Riviera, a setup he’s come close on before.

In 2022, Young burst onto the scene with a second-place finish at this event, shooting 62 in the second round and nearly having tied the course record of 61. He gained 9.9 strokes ball-striking alone that week and over 5.0 strokes on the greens. And though Young's T20 at this venue last season wasn’t as spectacular, he still managed to gain 7.2 strokes ball-striking while coming in with lesser form (T64 in Phoenix the week prior).

February 2, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Cameron Young hits his second shot on the 10th hole during the second round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Young also has great results at multiple venues with solid correlation to this week, including a T7 at Augusta from last season and a second-place finish at the 2022 Wells Fargo (played at TPC Potomac).

This year, Young’s form is again on the uptick. His T8 in Phoenix last week saw him gain 4.0 strokes off the tee and go positive with his putter (+5.2 strokes) and iron play. While it’s concerning that his iron play has dipped over the last year, the +1.5 strokes gained on approach at the more pinpoint TPC Scottsdale setup was his best approach week on the PGA since last June.

Given the confidence he’s shown on this course already along with the fact that Young's available at bigger odds than he was here last season (ranged from +3300 to +2500 in 2023), it looks as though he may have finally drifted into a decent value range for betting. Given his top-10 and top-five hit rate on the PGA (eight top-fives and 13 top-10s since 2022), I like laddering Young down all the way from the top-20 market this week.

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Tony Finau

• Outright (+3500, FanDuel)
• Top-10 (+280, FanDuel)

Finau has made mincemeat of these longer technical layouts more often than not in his career. His resume reads as follows:

• Five finishes of T6 or better at Torrey Pines
• Three top-10s at Augusta
• T2 Colonial
• T5 Copperhead
• T2 Silverado
• Two T2 finishes at Riviera

While it’s shocking that he hasn’t won at one of these venues yet, it’s important to remember that despite the lack of signature victories, Finau's win rate has risen as he’s matured. Four of Finau’s six career wins have come over the last 20 months, and at least one of those wins (2022 Houston) came at a course in Memorial Park Golf Course (a longer par 70) that plays more difficult to par than average and compares to Riviera in that regard.

Finau has also shown that he may be ready to add to that career total soon. He’s played a handful of events this season and gained 7.0 strokes on approach at the Farmers three weeks ago (T6) and 6.8 strokes ball-striking at Pebble Beach (T37).

While his around-the-green game and putting have been suboptimal thus far, Finau has shown the ability to flip his putting around on short notice and has encouragingly gained multiple strokes putting at Riviera in three of his last five visits.

The fact is that there are few who can dial up the ball-striking to the levels needed to dominate at Riviera the way that Finau can. The last two winners of this event both gained over 9.0 strokes on approach, and while it’s tempting to look to Scottie Scheffler this week because of that, Finau trumps him in course history and price. That makes Finau a player I’d rather be onside with than against this week.

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Wyndham Clark

• Each-way top-five (+4500, Bet365)

If you’re new to betting, an each-way bet is simply a bet that asks you to make two wagers at once. In an each-way bet, you're making a bet to win (in this case, betting that your golfer wins the event) as well as a placing bet (finish top-five or top-eight depending on the sportsbook or offer).

Bet365 offers a variety of placement options for their each-way bets, but the odds are significantly worse when we venture past top-five for our placement portion of the bet.

Feb 3, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Wyndham Clark hits his tee shot on the 16th hole during the third round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports

With this in mind, I definitely like using the each-way top-five option on Wyndham Clark this week, as he looks woefully underpriced at +4500. Clark fell off a bit in Phoenix but has continued to showcase elite ball-striking, gaining 4.3 strokes on approach. He’s played Riviera four times and finished T8 here in 2021.

Clark is also now sixth in the OWGR, so compared to some of his peers who are priced drastically underneath him, he looks like a massive bargain. On top of playing golf at Oregon (West Coast roots), Clark also won the U.S. Open at LA Country Club, which is just down the road from this week’s venue.

Kurt Kitayama

• Each-way top-eight (+9000, Bet365)
• Top-20 (+220, Bet365)

If you want a longer shot to round out cards with, Kurt Kitayama also looks like a solid each-way target and a player I don’t mind taking worse odds on to get better placement position. He finished eighth last week, and like Clark, Kitayama is a player familiar with the West Coast. Kitayama has had a solid start to the season with improved off-the-tee play and is coming off his best putting week in some time. I’d also consider playing Kitayama in the top-20 market in addition to laddering him like Young.

Genesis Invitational Matchup Bets

Collin Morikawa over Max Homa (-110, DraftKings)

• With a win and a T5 finish over his last four PGA starts, Morikawa trumps Homa in short-form results and stats. Homa (the 2021 Riviera champ) comes in struggling with form, having lost strokes on approach in three straight starts. 

Patrick Cantlay over Viktor Hovland (+100, DraftKings)

• While the long-term upside of Hovland is immense, he’s yet to find his groove in 2024, having lost multiple strokes on approach in his first two PGA starts of the year. Cantlay can be frustrating in the majors, but he rarely disappoints at Riviera, as he’s finished T17 or better in five of his last starts here.

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