2024 Genesis Scottish Open Course Preview

The Genesis Scottish Open became an official PGA event at the start of the 2022 PGA season, and the official warmup event for most PGA players who plan on taking part in the year’s final major, the Open Championship.

Before that, The Scottish Open had been a regular stop on the European Tour, albeit one that often had a lot of PGA regulars in it, thanks to its proximity to the Open Championship and how ideal a warmup event it was for the last major. 

Much like the past two seasons, the event remains a co-sanctioned affair in 2024 that will again feature the top 75 players, from both the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour (plus a few special exemptions), to create a field of approximately 156 golfers.

This week will be noteworthy for a few reasons.

1. It’s the first time we’ll see world number two-ranked Rory McIlroy in action since his heartbreaking loss at Pinehurst in the 2024 US Open. McIlroy also won this event last season in thrilling fashion, birding the last two holes in horrific conditions to beat home-country favorite Robert MacIntrye by a stroke.
2. It won’t feature world number one Scottie Scheffler, who is choosing to forgo preparation for the Open this week, for an added week of rest. You can hardly second-guess Scheffler’s decision-making at this point but it is worth noting that most of the recent winners of the Open have played in Scotland the week prior, including 2023 Open Champion Brian Harman, who finished T6 at this event last season. 

I’ll go over the course preview and how to approach this week for betting today (along with any trends worth noting) and will also highlight one golfer I like targeting for this week. Then, on Wednesday, I’ll go through my full betting card with outrights, placements, and whatever else sticks out for the week. 

Let’s dive in and get our Scottish Open week started!

Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Course Preview 

The Scottish Open is played on a links-style course at the Rennaisance Club which provides ideal prep for the Open – which will be played this season at Royal Troon.

Troon sits on the West coast of Scotland, just South of Glasglow, but it’s also a seaside venue and The Rennaissance Club will surely prepare players well for the types of winds and ever-changing weather conditions they are likely to see at the Open.

Favorites have dominated in the two seasons since the Scottish Open became an official co-sanctioned event on the PGA, but with a links course and the unpredictability of Scottish weather in play, this event does shape up as one where a long shot or two can flourish.

Some quick-hitting facts about the Scottish Open:

• The Renaissance Club — North Berwick, Scotland
• Par 70, 7,237 yards
• Greens: Fescue
• Design: Tom Doak (2007)
• Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy

The Renaissance Club will host the Scottish Open for the sixth year in a row this season. The venue was created back in 2007 by Tom Doak and sits on the peninsula just outside Edinborough and close to some other famous Scottish Links courses. The venue isn’t overtly long or difficult at just 7237 yards. However, with proximity to the sea and classic links conditions (pot bunkers, fescue rough, gorse bushes, etc) any poor weather can and will wreak havoc on the scoring.

Over the past five seasons, the winning score has ranged from -22 (back in 2019, played in ideal conditions) to just -7 in 2022, when rain and wind made their presence felt after an easy Round 1, where first-round leader Cameron Tringale shot a 61.

At its core, The Renaissance Club is a traditional links setup with fescue greens and firm fairways that require intelligent decision-making and allow players to use a variety of shots on approach. This last fact was demonstrated beautifully last year when Rory McIlroy hit a 2-iron on the final hole from just off the fairway (and into the wind); a shot that ran up some 15 yards before stopping 11 feet from the pin (allowing him to make a final-hole birdie to clinch the win).

Jun 16, 2024; Pinehurst, North Carolina, USA; Rory McIlroy pitches onto the eighteenth green during the final round of the U.S. Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The ball can roll a lot here and while McIlroy and Schauffele (two great drivers) have won at this venue the past two seasons, the firmness has also helped shorter hitters like Aaron Rai (winner 2019), Bernd Wiesberger (winner 2019), and Brian Harman (T6 in 2023). Despite it being a par 71 there are four par 5s on the course and while they do have quirky, large greens, they are still short holes for the pros and will yield a ton of birdies (as long as it’s not super windy).

There are also five par 3s, thanks to the unique layout, and these tend to play as some of the most difficult holes on the course, as three of the five stretch over 200 yards. The added par 3s tend to put more emphasis on approach play, and those who find the greens on these holes will usually be rewarded with at least a par, and potentially able to gain some strokes over the field.

As of now, the weather for 2024 looks somewhat dreary, as highs for all four days are between 58-62 F and there is rain (and no sun) expected during the event. The good news for the players is that, as of writing, the wind doesn’t look like it will be overly penal, with gusts expected to land in the 10-12 mile range on day one and then gradually decrease as the week wears on. That could make for softer conditions and a few more birdies than we’ve seen the past couple of seasons.

Exactly how the course will play in 2024 is unknown but here’s some insight from the designer as to what to expect:

“The windier and firmer it is, the more ball-striking plays a premium,” Doak says. “If it’s soft, it becomes more of a putting contest, and that’s not what the best players want to see. There are a few greens with some really tricky short-game shots – the back pin on the 18th is one, but more of them are on the front nine, as well as the shots around the 10th and 11th greens.”

So how should we approach The Renaissance Club for betting?

In terms of recent form, past winners here have generally come in smoking hot. 2020 winner Aaron Rai finished T2 in his final start in Ireland before winning, and both Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy both posted great results directly before winning this event in 2022 and 2023. Three of the last four winners had posted a T5 or better in one of their final two lead-in events. 

We don’t have strokes gained data from years past 2022, but each of the past two winners gained over 5.0 strokes on approach. Again, with the extra par 3s in play and potentially blustery conditions, there should be an added emphasis on good iron play. 

Winners have also tended to perform well off the tee, but a power game isn't necessarily needed, as much as accuracy (especially if the conditions are mild). 

Again, it’s really important to emphasize how big a factor the weather will play this week. If it’s easy and soft (and the wind stays down as expected) that will likely open up the ability for shorter hitters, with great short iron play and putting becoming vital. However, if it's cold and windy, that does favor the pure ball-strikers and players with more power off the tee as the course will play more like a major venue, yield fewer birdie chances, and put a premium on off-the-tee and approach play. 

The last two seasons have been fairly difficult (especially 2022) and it’s no shock we got two quality winners in McIlroy and Schauffele on both occasions. 

Ideally, from a stat perspective, we’d want our golfer to have the following: 

• Good to elite driving stats (emphasis on accuracy and fairways gained if it’s mild weather)
• Elite putting, specifically on slower greens (fescue), 10 to 25 feet
• Elite approach game, 175 yards, and in
• Some course history, or a good history of play on links or similar seaside venues

Combining and weighing these stats (among others) into a model that targeted the last 24/50 rounds this week (again, heavier on approach, ball striking, windy conditions, and putting) gave me the following players as my top 10:

• Rory McIlroy
• Xander Schauffele
• Collin Morikawa
• Corey Conners
• Tom Hoge
• Sepp Straka
• Viktor Hovland
• Ludvig Aberg
• Aaron Rai
• Tommy Fleetwood

Since we are somewhat concerned about driving, especially if the wind or rain picks up, here’s a list of the top 10 players over the last 24 rounds in Good Drives Gained.

• Aaron Rai
• Collin Morikawa
• Sepp Straka
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Joel Dahmen
• Ludvig Aberg
• Xander Schauffele
• Jordan Spieth
• Austin Eckroat
• Chan Kim

This is an interesting list and one that includes a lot of names with great links history and results. We have two Open winners in Spieth and Morikawa along with terrific links players in Rai, Fleetwood, and Straka. Again, these are players who maybe don’t hit it 350 off every tee but do hit an inordinate amount of drives that allow them a shot at hitting the green (aka a good drive) 

Betting Facts and Stats for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open

Below are the previous odds (week of) of the past five Scottish Open winners. A couple of notes about these odds below:

• Each of the last two winners has been below +2000 in odds
• However, before that, we had three winners in a row that went off at +4000 or bigger.
• Min Woo Lee was the biggest winner of the past five seasons, but he also came in off some solid performances and was trending well, posting a T17 in Ireland the week prior.

Below are the previous 5 winners of the Scottish Open and their pre-event odds from the beginning of the week of the event. (Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.)

Early Bet for the 2024 Scottish Open

Tommy Fleetwood Outright (+2400; bet365)

Fleetwood has been having a solid year, but even I was surprised as to how well he rated this week. He’s 10th in the overall model and also ranks 4th in Good Drives Gained, 15th in GIR Gained, and 17th in SG: APP, over the last 24 rounds. 

His approach stats may be a touch weaker than some of the other top players but Fleetwood also showed some progression with his iron play at the Travelers in his last start. He gained 5.1 strokes on approach for the week at TPC River Highlands and has now gained strokes Off the Tee and on Approach in three straight events. 

In terms of suitability for the course and conditions, there are few better suited to a tough week on the links than Tommy, either. The Englishman thrives overseas and has finished T6 and T4 at this venue the last two seasons, and also compiled top 10 finishes at the Open Championship in three of the last four years – including a 2nd place finish from 2019, an event played in rainy and cool conditions, similar to what is on tap this week. 

Given his course history, it’s not shocking to see his betting number approach +2000, but he’s a player I'd have no hesitation about jumping on early while his odds remained above that level. Fleetwood has played well for most of the season, posting a career-best T3 at Augusta, T26 at the PGA Championship and a T16 at the US Open, and looks ready to challenge again before the year is complete.