2024 John Deere Classic Betting Breakdown

The John Deere Classic is a summer staple on the PGA TOUR. The event itself dates back to 1971 when it was named the Quad City Classic, but has held its current name and sponsor title since 2000 when the event moved to TPC Deere Run. While it rarely attracts the flashiest names the event is a great tune-up for the last major of the season. Recently, players like Jordan Spieth, Francesco Molinari, and Zach Johnson have all used this event as a springboard into some great July results at the Open. 

The Deere also provides the top two players in the field, who haven’t already qualified for the Open, with a shot at getting a spot, creating a small tournament-inside-the-tournament over the weekend. 

As for betting, TPC Deere Run sets up as a shorter, technical par 71 that produces a ton of birdies and lower scores each season. In fact, since 2000, no course on the PGA TOUR has produced more birdies than TPC Deere Run. 

To give you an idea of how this event has played out of late, here is a quick rundown of the past three winners of the John Deere Classic and how they achieved their victory.

2021 – Lucas Glover (+7000) -19

• Glover played the week prior in Detroit but only finished T41. He did finish T8 at Colonial a month before his win, and gained over 4.0 strokes on approach there. 
• Started slowly but shot 63 in Round 2 and 64 in Round 4
• Gained over 7.0 strokes on approach for the week

2022 – JT Poston (+3500) -21

• Led wire-to-wire, opening the event with a 62 and shooting 65 in Round 2 
• Was coming off a great week at the Travelers the week before (played the week before the Deere that season) where he gained over 8.0 strokes on approach
• Like Straka and others, had a very solid week off the tee, and ranked highly in OTT stats

2023 – Sepp Straka (+5500) -21

• Won with a great final round of 62. Two strokes over Brendon Todd and Alex Smalley
• Straka started with a 73, but reeled off rounds of 63-65-62 to grab the win
• Was coming off a couple of bad weeks but had finished T7 at the PGA Championship two months prior

May 26, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Sepp Straka putts on #8 during the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week John Deere Classic course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with TPC Deere Run yet, I recommend you do so, as it’s a place where a lot of veterans and players who are good around classic, more technical setups have tended to thrive.  

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 John Deere Classic to keep in mind.

• It’s a 150+ man field with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 65 players and ties will make the weekend. 
• There are two qualifying spots for the Open Championship on the line this week. The top two finishers who haven’t already qualified for the Open will get the spots. 
• Sungjae Im leads the field in betting odds (+1400, DraftKings). He’s finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four starts and showcased some good upside with his approaches at the Travelers, gaining over 5.0 strokes there for the week.
• Jordan Spieth (+2200) is playing for the first time since 2016. He’s a two-time winner of this event from 2014 and 2016. 
• The weather this week looks relatively mild, although thunderstorms could potentially stop play on Thursday afternoon for brief periods. Friday is set to be windy, with the Friday afternoon wave potentially getting the worst of the draw. 

John Deere Classic Betting Odds

2024 John Deere Classic top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings)

2024 John Deere Classic Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays, I do like playing many of these names in the placing department or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Davis Thompson Outright (+2700; bet365)

• Top 5 (+600; bet365)

This event has produced a lot of longshot winners of late. However, going back a few years before this string of longshots, we find names like Bryson DeChambeau (2016) and Jordan Spieth (2013, 2015) who managed to land their first career wins at Deere Run and were much shorter in odds than recent winners.

Having landed a T9 recently at the US Open and backing that up with a T2 last week in Detroit, Thompson has certainly proven himself to be a talented young player himself, and at 25 years of age looks primed—much like Spieth and DeChambeau did—to take the next step forward into the win column soon as well. 

Apr 25, 2024; Avondale, Louisiana, USA; Davis Thompson hits from the 8th fairway during the first round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

He’s a longer hitter, but Thompson has shown good upside on these more technical courses for much of his career. He posted a T17 at Colonial on his first trip around that course this season and has finished T2 at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course, T9 at the tighter, tree-lined Silverado, and T12 at the TPC Sumerlin. 

Thompson also played in this event last season and landed a T31 finish. He impressively gained over 4.0 strokes putting for the week and produced a third-round 65. He’s outperformed several of the names below or just above him in price this week, making his outright number attractive to me from a value perspective at +2500 or bigger.   

Eric Cole Outright (+5500; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+500; DraftKings)

Eric Cole has already had plenty of close calls on the PGA. He took second at the Honda in 2023 and followed that up with a T2 at the Zozo Championship and T3s at the RSM Classic and Shriners last fall. This will be his third time playing the John Deere, and while his best finish over two previous starts is only a T42, his game aligns nicely with the setup. 

A shorter hitter who can struggle off the tee, Cole’s performance last week in Detroit was also encouraging, as he finished T6 and gained strokes off the tee for the fifth time in seven starts. Cole’s driving has improved a lot after he struggled in that area to begin the year, and it now seems like his iron play and putting may be catching up. The 3.2 strokes he gained on approach last week in Detroit was his best mark since March (Valspar), and he’s a player who has strung together good weeks in the past, posting four top 5s in the span of five starts last fall. 

Just given the weakness of the field and how well Cole has competed at these kinds of lower-scoring events, I’m surprised his number hasn’t dipped closer to +4000. He makes for a good starting point for me for outright bets at an event where the winners have all gone off between +3500 and +25000 over the past five seasons. 

Beau Hossler Outright (+6000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+500; DraftKings)

Beau Hossler isn’t someone I normally go out of my way to bet. His iron play is sporadic, and timing when he’ll have a great putting week is a near impossible task. That said, his recent form this week stuck out. He only finished T31 at Detroit but did so in a manner that was very dissimilar to most of his usual finishes. The 29-year-old gained 4.2 strokes on approach and another 2.1 strokes off the tee at Detroit GC, ranking fourth in fairways gained. 

Perhaps he regresses a little bit in that area around Deere Run’s tighter fairways, but given his length, if he remains consistent with the driver around this course he’ll most certainly give himself a great shot at heating up with his putter this week, which is generally his best club. Hossler has had a slow mid-portion of the 2024 season, but a T14 in Canada two starts ago, where he gained over 5.0 strokes putting, is also worth noting. 

The American has come close to winning on the PGA before (a playoff loss in Houston in 2018 sticks out) and at this stage in his career, he’s got plenty of experience around these technical venues. He’s played Deere Run three times before, and while he’s yet to feel the heat of contention on this course, he has finished T26 at TPC Deere Run twice, including last season when he gained +3.7 strokes ball-striking and shot 69 or better in all four rounds.   

Given the field and his performance last week, I think his outright number at +6000 is more than fair and I certainly like him playing him in the placing markets for either a top 20 or top 10, where I’d play him as low as +450. 

Bud Cauley Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+11000; bet365)

If you read my Course Preview from earlier in the week, you already know Cauley is my preferred dark horse play this week. The American hasn’t produced many results of late, but he’s demonstrated the kind of upside with his irons that you need to perform well at Deere Run. The 34-year-old gained 3.3 strokes on approach in Canada two starts ago, and 4.7 strokes on approach in Houston back in April. 

Overall, he’s been one of the best in this field in proximity from short distances over the past 24 to 50 rounds and sets up well for a shorter, birdie-fest type of event. 

Mar 1, 2024; Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, USA; Bud Cauley lines up his putt on the 18th green during the second round of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Last week in Detroit, Cauley struggled with his irons, but he was coming off a multi-week layoff and I’d expect he’ll rebound in that area rather quickly. He did show much-improved sharpness around the greens and with his putter in Detroit—gaining over 3.0 strokes in both of those areas—which allowed him to shoot a second round 65. As mentioned above, I think we’ll see a bounce back from him from a ball-striking perspective, which could lead to better things on the scorecard at Deere Run, a course where he’s finished inside the top 20 on each of his last three starts. 

Cauley’s number has dipped a bit since Patrick Cantlay withdrew, but he’s still +12000 on FanDuel and you can also play him as an each-way on bet365, with a top 8, at +11000. That’s the route I prefer for the American, who is still looking for his first PGA win after making his way back on TOUR from a multi-year injury absence. 

Daniel Berger Outright (+7500; bet365)

I said last week that I might have been a week early on Berger and I was right. Now it remains to be seen if the four-time PGA winner can build on his impressive US Open showing at a more suitable course in TPC Deere Run. Berger has played this venue three times in the past and posted a T5 back in 2017, his first time around the course. The tighter fairways and emphasis on short irons fit his game perfectly as he remains one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR, ranking 11th in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds. 

I’m only playing Berger as an outright this week, and I think it’s warranted, given his number is still as big as +7500 at some books. If he doesn’t rebound or continues to struggle, we’re only out a small investment, but if he does showcase the same kind of ball-striking he did at Pinehurst, the reward will be more than worth it at these levels. 

John Deere Classic Placement Bets 

Joel Dahmen Top 10 / Top 20 (+650 / +300; bet365)

Joel Dahmen is always a player to keep an eye on in these weaker field events when his form is right. The 36-year-old saw his ball-striking slip after he became a bit of an overnight sensation thanks to appearances in Netflix’s Full Swing series, but he’s righted the ship of late. He’s been positive off the tee and on approach in four straight starts and is a great fairway finder who has been killing it off the tee of late, ranking 4th in good drive % over the last 24 rounds. 

Dahmen’s got a boom-or-bust course history at Deere Run, but his T2 finish from 2018 showcases the kind of upside he has at this kind of technical track. His outright number has come down to +8000 (FanDuel) but I would still consider playing him for a small wager in that area. As a placement bet, I like chasing his upside in both the top 20 and top 10 markets. 

Underdog Round 1 PGA Pick’em (8.28x multiplier) 

Thursday doesn’t project with a ton of wind, so I don’t mind playing for lower scoring at a course that produces a ton of birdies. I've broken down the three parts of the first round pick’em for this week below. 

Beau Hossler Yes: Top 20 Finishing Position (Round 1)

Hossler is coming off a great week in Detroit (ball-striking-wise) and has put in a lot of solid rounds around Deere Run already. He’s also no stranger to starting fast, ranking 31st in Round 1 scoring on the PGA this season. His multiplier for a first-round top 20 is also a lot larger than some of the other names around him in the odds this week, so it made sense to use his HIGHER in the placing categories to give us some good upside to start with. 

Davis Thompson LOWER 68.0 strokes

This one doesn't need much explanation. The 25-year-old Thompson is playing great golf and rates out very well for me this week. His total for Round 1 is a full stroke lower than event favorite Sungjae Im and only 0.5 lower than plenty of names who are going off at 70-1 or greater in the outright markets. 

Sam Stevens LOWER 68.5

Stevens is as low as 40-1 at some sportsbooks, but his 68.5 first-round total on Underdog puts him in the same grouping as players who are as big as 70-1 in the outright market. He’s putting well and has played Deere Run before, giving him a good blend of course history and recent form. Coming off a solid finish in Detroit, I think it makes sense to back him for Round 1, especially at a total that is underrating his current upside just a touch. 

Full Card: 

• Davis Thompson Outright +2700 0.65 units / Top 5 +600 0.35 units
• Beau Hossler Outright +6000 0.35 units / Top 10 +500 0.35 units
• Eric Cole Outright +5500 0.35 units / Top 10 +500 0.35 units
• Bud Cauley Each-Way (Top 8) +11000 0.25 units / 0.25 units
• Daniel Berger Outright +7500 0.4 units
• Joel Dahmen Top 10 / 20 +650 / +300  0.25 units / 0.5 units
• Underdog Round 1: 3-Way Pick’em 0.5 units