Selection Sunday has come and gone and with it comes a March Madness bracket reveal.
Instant reactions have flooded social media as bubbles have been burst and bracket placements have been critiqued. With instant reactions also comes best bets and here are some bets I made right away after the bracket reveal.
March Madness Bracket Reveal Best Bets - Futures
North Carolina National Champion (+1800, FanDuel)
Normally getting the number one overall seed brings the easiest path to the Final Four. That was not the case this year as the Connecticut Huskies have the likes of Auburn, Iowa State, and Illinois in their region this year.
One thing those three previously mentioned teams all have in common? They all won their conference tournament this year.
One team that has a shockingly easy path to the Final Four on paper and still currently has juicy odds to win it all is the North Carolina Tar Heels.
They fit the mold of a potential champion per historic Kenpom metrics, having an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) rank of 24th while their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) clocks in at 6th. To qualify, a team must rank top-25 in AdjO and have a combined rating of 50 or less when mixing in their AdjD.
As for their potential path, Michigan State is seriously flawed with little to no production from their bigs while Mississippi State’s offense will struggle to stay within scoring pace. Alabama’s defense is non-existent and may struggle against the Saint Mary’s Gaels who will slow the game to a snail's pace and limit their number of offensive possessions.
Be sure to shop around as future prices wildly vary between each sportsbook. North Carolina can be found as low as +1200 and as high as +1800 which is a difference of $600 in potential profit for a $100 bettor.
Back the Tar Heels and their easy path to the Elite 8 with hedging intentions in mind should they make it to the Final Four.
First-Round Best Bets from March Madness Bracket Reveal
(4) Alabama vs. (13) Charleston Over 169 (-110, DraftKings)
If you like points being scored at a lightning-quick pace then this game is for you. Alabama has been the definition of the saying “all gas no brakes” as they finished the year ranked second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and ninth in Tempo. The Tide’s offense gets out and runs as soon as they haul in a rebound, taking advantage of a scrambling defense in transition and picking apart the gaps in coverage for a high-quality three-point attempt.
While not at the same elite rate as the Tide, Charleston mirrors Alabama’s offensive identity in that they also prefer to get out and run with an emphasis on perimeter shooting. They come into March Madness ranked 58th in AdjO and 59th in Tempo while possessing a top-3 three-point rate to potentially match the scoring pace of the Tide.
Speaking of staying within scoring pace for Charleston, high-quality looks will come at a routine rate as Alabama’s interior defense is practically nonexistent. Alabama ranks 215th in Opposing Two Point Percentage, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 51.1%.
That percentage has only gotten worse in their last three contests per TeamRankings, creeping up to an astonishing 54.9%. That gives some breathing room should Charleston’s shooters hit a cold stretch, still getting an opportunity to do their part towards the over with high-quality looks at the rim.
(6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico (-2) (-110, BetMGM)
New Mexico comes into the tournament as one of the higher seeds no one wanted to face in the first round and the market agrees as they opened the Lobos as a -2 favorite against the Clemson Tigers. Don’t let the seeding fool you, New Mexico is one of the better teams in the country as they finished the regular season ranked 23rd in Adjusted Efficiency Margin per Kenpom.
Better yet for the Lobos, they get a reeling Clemson squad who has limped into March Madness after an embarrassing loss in the ACC Conference Tournament to 11 seed Boston College. A big factor for their regression has been on the defensive end, dipping to 67th in AdjD while conceding high-quality looks from the perimeter at a 37.5% rate from opposing offenses in their last three contests.
That plays in New Mexico’s favor as their offense plays inside-out. They run a heavy-motion offense that relies on cutting to the basket to suck in defensive attention, creating high-quality perimeter looks from kick-out passes, or punishing a slow-moving interior defense for a bucket at the rim.
Clemson’s offensive identity is also one that I try to fade in a tournament format and that is an offense that runs at a snail's pace and minimizes their number of possessions. Clemson ranks 260th in Tempo, meaning they may struggle to stay within scoring pace against an offense that generates high-quality looks for more scoring consistency while the Tigers offense is ill-equipped to dig out of a big deficit.
(8) Utah State vs. (9) TCU (-3) (-110, DraftKings)
Regression looms large over the Utah State Aggies as they have run as one of the luckiest units in the nation by ranking 14th in Luck per Kenpom. They now take on a TCU squad that is battle-tested after a grueling season in the Big 12 with wins against Oklahoma, Houston, Baylor, and Texas Tech.
The Horned Frogs are a well-balanced team on both ends of the court by ranking 44th in AdjO and 31st in AdjD and now have an opportunity to generate more consistent scoring opportunities against an underwhelming Aggies defense. Utah State has conceded an Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage of 53.4% in their last three contests, giving up high-quality looks at an alarming rate.
TCU also plays as one of the more physical teams in the nation, making opposing guards uncomfortable in half-court sets as they continue to hound them for a potential turnover. It’s an aggression that the Aggies are not accustomed to, potentially leading to an uptick in turnovers to the benefit of TCU’s ability to generate more consistent scoring.
If the Aggies continue to struggle to smother opposing looks when on defense, and fold against the Horned Frogs pressure when on offense, it will be a long night for Utah State.
