To quote the legendary Bruce Buffer – it’s time. We’ve made it to the NBA postseason, and it was a journey at times. The end of the regular season can be a slog, but the postseason is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
This year’s postseason looks particularly strong. Four of the eight first-round series are essentially considered toss-ups, with the favorite checking it at -135 or lower. Only two series feature an overwhelming favorite, so there should be plenty of competitive basketball available for our viewing pleasure.
Of course, we’re not just looking to watch the NBA playoffs; we’re looking to make some money too. I love betting on the postseason because it reduces some of the night-to-night volatility in the NBA. Instead of having to bet on which team is going to cover each night, you can look to the series markets. If you think a team is better than their opponent, it’s much easier to realize that edge over a seven-game series than in one specific contest.
Let’s dive into my NBA best bets for the first round of the playoffs.
2024 NBA Playoff Betting: Top Picks for the First Round
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Best Bet – Nuggets -1.5 games (-140; DraftKings)
The Lakers managed to secure the No. 7 seed after beating the Pelicans in the play-in tournament, and their reward is a series vs. the defending champs. Good luck with that.
The Nuggets looked a tad sluggish out of the gates this season, which can be expected after a grueling title run. However, they’ve fully turned things on over the second half of the year. They’re second in Net Rating since the All-Star break, outscoring opponents by an average of +9.8 points per 100 possessions. They have the best player in the league in Nikola Jokic, and the rest of their roster is essentially at full strength.
While the regular version of Jokic is scary enough, the playoff version is downright terrifying. He averaged a ridiculous 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game during last year’s run, and he shot 54.8% from the field and 46.1% from 3-point range. Those are the types of numbers you see in video games, not in real life.
The Nuggets also still possess the best home-court advantage in basketball. They were 9-1 in Denver in last year’s playoffs, with the lone loss coming in the Finals.
Finally, there’s a serious mental edge for the Nuggets in this series. They swept the Lakers in last year’s playoffs, and they were 3-0 against them in the regular season. LeBron James hasn’t won a game in Denver since February 2020.
The Nuggets are the better team, and I like their chances of taking care of business quickly. Grabbing them -1.5 games means we need them to win in six games or fewer, which is think is extremely doable.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Best Bet – 76ers to win series (-115; DraftKings)
I’m not going to lie – I felt a lot better about this bet before watching the 76ers limp past the Heat in the Play-In Tournament. Joel Embiid did not look like his usual dominant self, and Nic Batum is not going to bail the 76ers out with six 3-pointers every night.
Still, I’m sticking to my guns. The 76ers aren’t just better than the Knicks; they’re better than every Eastern Conference squad outside of Boston.
When Embiid has been in the lineup this season, the 76ers’ numbers have been elite. They’re now 32-8 in 40 games with their MVP big man, and he’ll have three days to rest up before Saturday’s Game 1 in New York. Embiid’s numbers were excellent down the stretch – he averaged 30 points in 30.5 minutes in five regular season contests after returning to the lineup – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Playing against Bam Adebayo isn’t easy at 100%, let alone if you’re already banged up.
The Knicks have overachieved all season, but they’re not equipped for a postseason run without Julius Randle. I’ll take Philly in this matchup.
More NBA Bets for the First Round Round
Celtics -2.5 games vs. Heat (-310) – Is this a sexy bet? Absolutely not. But is it a good bet? I think so. The -310 odds translate to a 75.6% that the Celtics win this series in five games or less, and I think the true odds are closer to 90%. The Heat simply cannot hang with the Celtics without Jimmy Butler. You could look to play the sweep price at +125, but I like the added security of the -2.5 games. That security comes at a premium, but the Celtics have been known to lay an egg from time to time. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if they dropped one of the two games in Miami.
Suns over Timberwolves (-135) – The old saying in the NBA is that you have to learn how to win in the playoffs. We’ve seen it with every great player and every great team; they have to suffer a playoff defeat to reach the next level. The Suns have already felt that sting, but most of the Timberwolves’ roster has not. I’m trusting the experience of guys like Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to overcome the inexperienced Timberwolves.
Clippers-Mavericks Over 5.5 games (-195) – Of all the first-round matchups, this is the one I feel least confident about. The Clippers have the better overall roster, but the Mavericks are red-hot and have the best player. The one thing I’m pretty confident about in this series is that it will be lengthy. These squads met in the playoffs in 2021, and that series went seven games. I think this series goes at least six, so I’m riding the over on 5.5 games.
