68 teams entered the tournament and now only two remain with the defending champion Connecticut Huskies set to battle it out against the Purdue Boilermakers for the national championship.

UConn can be the first team to repeat as a national champion since the late 2006-2007 Florida Gators, while the Boilermakers look to be the first Big Ten team to win it all since the Michigan State Spartans did it back in 2000.

On top of our last best bets article for the 2024 March Madness tournament, be sure to also check out Matthew Freedman’s player prop projections and picks over at the Fantasy Life discord in the Free-Picks-Channel.

It was an absolute pleasure to share my thoughts and picks with all of you, now let's cash one last time for the final game of the season with my 2024 NCAA Championship betting breakdown.

2024 NCAA Championship Betting Breakdown

Not only is it a national championship that features two number-one seeds, but it is also a matchup that features the two best teams in the nation per various projection sites.

Kenpom personally has them in his top two with UConn being listed as the fourth-best team in college basketball history dating back to 2002.

They have certainly looked the part, dominating all of their March Madness opponents in the past two tournaments. The Huskies have made quick work of everyone who has dared step in front of them during their run, going 11-0 ATS with a combined scoring margin of +245.

They now face the toughest test of their season with Purdue looking nearly just as dominant in their 2024 campaign. 

Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Championship Outlook

Outside of their Elite 8 matchup against Tennessee that resulted in a narrow win, Purdue has dominated their way through the bracket with a scoring margin of +98.

Not only is Purdue looking to be the first Big Ten team to win it all since 2000, but they are also looking to follow in Virginia’s footsteps by winning the national championship in the following year after losing to a 16 seed in the previous tournament.

A major factor towards their success comes from their two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey, a monster-sized presence in the interior who imposes his will on both sides of the court. Standing at 7’4” and 300lbs, Edey has had no issue with abusing the interior with a soft touch around the rim and physical dominance on the glass to the tune of 24.9 ppg and 12.2 rpg.

Purdue’s offensive scheme centers around Edey, getting the benefit of exploiting opposing gaps in coverage with their shooters as defenses have no choice but to throw double teams at the big man. You can only cover so much area of the court with limited defenders, giving the Boilermakers off-ball scorers high-quality shooting opportunities against limited coverage.

Purdue has done a phenomenal job capitalizing on their scoring opportunities, entering the national championship ranked third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) per Kenpom. Not only is Edey a scoring machine himself, but the rest of the Boilermakers can punish you as an impressive shooting unit as a whole.

They benefit from the extra space due to Edey’s presence, ranking 13th in the nation in Effective Field Goal Percentage by shooting 56.1% from the floor per TeamRankings. They also rank second in Three-Point Completion Percentage, averaging 40.6% from deep.

Simply put, Purdue is a well-oiled offensive machine that benefits from an unguardable big man who creates space for their lethal shooters surrounding him. While that has worked for the majority of the season, they now face a UConn unit that matches their size and skill in nearly every facet of the game.

UConn Huskies NCAA Championship Outlook

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? 

We may very well get that answer to the long-asked question when UConn’s Donovan Clingan meets Zach Edey in the interior.

Clingan may be a tad smaller than Edey, “only” standing at 7’2” and 280lbs, but he is more than capable of holding his own as a crafty big man with exceptional length and skill.

Clingan being able to single-cover Edey gives the rest of the UConn defenders the ability to faceguard their assignments. That is an aspect that other defenses have not had the fortune of having and one that gives UConn’s defense a major boost in their efforts of smothering Purdue’s shooters.

UConn has been a phenomenal defending team all season long, ranking fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD). They are well disciplined, excel at switches against picks without sacrificing gaps in coverage, and routinely keep a hand in the opposing shooters' faces. Their third-ranked mark in Opposing Effective Field Goal Percentage echoes this sentiment, holding opposing offenses eFG% to just 44.4%.

Being able to aggressively face guard Purdue’s ball handlers without sacrificing coverage will create havoc opportunities for UConn’s defense, a style of play that has given Purdue struggles. While their guards have excelled with taking care of the ball this year compared to last year's loss to FDU, it was certainly interesting to see them revert to their bad habits when the Wolfpack got more aggressive at the halfcourt.

The Boilermakers' main ball handler, Braden Smith, was hounded early on by the Wolfpack, forcing him to commit five turnovers which allowed NC State to keep it close for the majority of the contest.

A blip compared to his season average of 2.7 turnovers per game, but worrisome as that was a thorn in their side in last year's early exit.

Purdue can not afford to lose out on offensive possessions, especially against UConn’s hyper-efficient offense which wears down their opponents over the full course of forty minutes. Their offensive assault is built on generating high-quality looks at a consistent rate with resounding success as they rank first in AdjO.

UConn’s offense is well balanced with five players averaging double figures in scoring, running a scheme that creates space for their off-ball scorers off of cleverly designed screens across the middle. This is a glaring advantage against Purdue’s defense as we may see UConn abuse whoever Fletcher Loyer is on as an undersized weak defender.

Top Betting Pick for Purdue vs. UConn

(1) UConn (-5.5) vs. (1) Purdue (-110, DraftKings)

Should Loyer, or anyone on Purdue, struggle to stay with their defender against a constantly revolving offense while dodging screens and chip-offs, then that leaves UConn with a high-quality scoring opportunity with the extra space against their coverage.

This also puts pressure on help-side defenders to decide to either crash toward the shooter or stay on their man.

Even if their jumpshots run cold as we have seen throughout the tournament, the Huskies have had no issue with keeping possessions alive with their aggression on the boards. With seven players playing meaningful minutes, five Huskies average at least 4.7 rebounds or more this season.

Purdue may lead the nation in Total Rebound Rate, but a majority of their success comes from Edey and his massive frame down low. Clingan counters that, as well as already bringing in extra bodies with their guards being aggressive down low as well. From there, UConn will have the ability to either try and get Edey in foul trouble with a putback or kick it out to an open shooter should the big man already hover above them.

I played UConn at -5.5, but with the current spread of -7, you are better off monitoring the game for a potential live play as this has blown past my last buy spot of -6.

Both Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey play a crucial role in their team’s success and while both will find themselves in aggressive situations, that could lead to foul trouble.

Should one get in foul trouble early on and have to sit for a prolonged period, then look to play a live wager on the other side.

Whether you got UConn at -5.5 or not on the pregame line, I will also look to add more on them at -4 or lower should they get out to another sluggish start.

The Huskies will generate more scoring consistency in the long run, meaning that they will create more consistent opportunities over the full course of the game while Purdue sputters at times against a defense that can face-guard their off-ball shooters. Capitalize on a potential swing, while also getting UConn at a more favorable number.