2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Picks: Betting on a Third-Year Standout

Defensive Player of the Year — it's like the MVP, but for defenders. Maybe not the catchiest slogan, but I never claimed to be a marketing expert.

It's not unprecedented for a defender to win MVP, but it was last won by a defender in 1986 (Lawrence Taylor). Instead, the top defender has to settle for the DPOY.

That's not to say that the DPOY isn't prestigious. It's been hoisted by numerous Hall of Famers, with J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald combining for six of the last 10.

Let's dive into everything you need to know for betting on Defensive Player of the Year, including odds and picks.

Odds To Win 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Last 10 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award Winners

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Betting Trends

Increasingly, the Defensive Player of the Year award is given to the top pass-rusher in football. Nine of the past 10 winners have played with their hand in the dirt, with Stephon Gilmore standing out as the lone exception.

Gilmore’s 2019 season shows what it takes for a cornerback to get in the mix. They can't just be a shutdown corner; guys like Darrell Revis and Champ Bailey never sniffed the award.

It's all about generating splash plays. Gilmore led the league with six interceptions that year, but the fact that he scored two touchdowns was even more important. We've seen guys post huge interception totals since then, but without the touchdowns, it’s hard to compete with the pass-rushers. Avoiding cornerbacks, in general, feels like the correct approach.

This is also an award that is dominated by favorites. Only Gilmore has gone off at greater than +1400 over the past 10 years. The fact that Watt and Donald were so dominant doesn't help, but it's been a similar story in recent years. Guys like T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, and Nick Bosa could jostle for this award for the next half-decade.

Finally, it's important to remember that this is a team award, too. If you don't play for one of the best defenses in football, it doesn't matter what your individual stats look like.

Look at Danielle Hunter from last year. He was fifth in the league with 16.5 sacks, but he was never really in contention. The Vikings were 13th in points per game and 16th in yards, which wasn't good enough to compete with Garrett’s Browns and Parsons’ Cowboys. Josh Hines-Allen and Trey Hendrickson were also top-five in terms of sacks, and neither player finished in the top 10 for DPOY voting.

Garrett has been the best pass-rusher in football for years now, but it wasn't until the Browns’ defensive production matched his own that he was finally rewarded.

2024 Defensive Player of the Year Picks

Myles Garrett (+600)

As much as some things change, others stay the same. Garrett may have won his first DPOY in 2023, but he has been the best pass-rusher in football basically since he stepped on an NFL field. He has at least 13.5 sacks in every season where he’s played at least 16 games, and he’s had double-digit sacks in six straight seasons. He’s been PFF’s No. 1 edge defender in each of the past three seasons, and he’s a force against the run and the pass.

The bigger question is can the Browns’ defense repeat as a whole? They were dominant last year, ranking as the fifth-best defense in non-sack EPA per play since 2000. They did that despite ranking 27th in defensive health, so they have the potential to be even better.

The only downside is their schedule, which is significantly tougher than it was last season. Still, I expect this defense to remain one of the best in football. If they are, there’s no reason why Garrett can’t go back-to-back. I have fewer questions with him – and the Browns’ defense – than I do with the other favorites, so he’s the horse I’m choosing to back.

• LaMarca

Chris Jones (+3000)

Even though this award has historically been dominated by favorites, it doesn’t mean we can’t look down the board a bit for some value. Injuries happen, and the NFL is a sport where variance reigns supreme. It wouldn’t be a huge shock if someone a little further down ultimately took home some hardware.

Jones checks a lot of the boxes I’m looking for in a DPOY candidate. The Chiefs had an excellent defense last year (sixth in EPA/play), and Jones is their clear best player. He’s also capable of generating the splash plays needed to win the award: he’s generated at least 10.5 sacks in back-to-back years.

Jones has earned a top-seven PFF grade among interior defenders in seven straight years, including a No. 1 finish in 2022. If he can replicate his production from that season and the Chiefs are as good as they were last year as a team, he’s definitely live to win this award.

• LaMarca

Aiden Hutchinson (+1600)

Hutchinson took a nice leap forward in his second season with the Lions. He led the league in hurries with 29.0, recorded 14 tackles for a loss (up from nine), and upped his sack total to 11.5 from 9.5. He also recorded 25 pressures (the second most in the league) and was the fourth-best graded pass-rusher via PFF.

All in total, Hutchinson profiles as a player who was great at creating havoc, and likely has room to grow in the sack column just given how often he was creating pressure on the QB. 

There is more to this award than how many sacks a player gets, but Hutchinson has shown growth in other areas as well. His seven passes defender finished three higher than Myles Garrett and he also caused three forced fumbles last season (just one fewer than Garrett).

The Lions' defense was a clear weakness last season with many blaming them for their eventual loss in the Championship game to the 49ers. The good news for Hutchinson – and where he has an advantage on players like Parsons and Garrett, in my opinion – is that the Lions defense has room for growth, and if they do show improvement as a team, it’s likely that will be picked up on by voters, with Hutchinson figuring to get a lot of the credit.

At +1600, he’s still just sixth in odds for this award (5.88% IP), a number that doesn’t seem short enough given how well he profiles to recent winners, and the fact the Lions have a great shot at being a top three team in the NFC once again.

• Geoff

Jalen Ramsey (+20000)

If you’re taking a flyer on a position outside of DL, cornerback is likely your best pivot option. We’ve had two cornerbacks win this award over the past 15 seasons (2009 - Rod Woodson and 2019 - Stephon Gilmore) with Gilmore going off as long as +8000 in the preseason of 2019.

The position is well known for its personalities and we have seen other names like Xavien Howard and Sauce Gardner finish inside the top eight in voting for this award since Gilmore’s win.

Ramsey is essentially the same age as Gilmore was when he won the award back in 2019 and is just two years removed from recording four INTs, 18 pass defenses, two forced fumbles, and 88 combined tackles with the Rams. That’s not far off Gilmore’s stats from his DPOY season when he recorded six INTs (tied for most in the NFL) and had 20 pass defenses.

Ramsey has never had more than four INTs in a season but he does play on a team that was fourth in pressure rate and will face the tandem of Drake Maye/Jacoby Brissett and noted INT dispenser Josh Allen twice each. If he’s able to post some career bests, and the Dolphins manage to win their division, he may be viewed as a household name voters can turn to if a couple of the favorites underperform or get injured.

Ultimately, voters in award categories like DPOY like to reward players who play on successful teams. I like Miami’s chances of coming out on top of the AFC East this season and with Ramsey at +20000 on FanDuel, playing him in this award category gives me more exposure to the Dolphins in 2024 for a very cheap price.

• Geoff